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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>On external influences on the radioactive decay rate fluctuations</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Victor A. Panchelyuga, Maria S. Panchelyuga, Olga Yu. Seraya Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics of Russian Academy of Science</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Pushchino</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Victor A. Panchelyuga, PhD (Physics and Mathematics), senior scientist in the Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>RAS</addr-line>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>The evolution of views on the possibility of external influence on the process of radioactive decay is briefly presented. Such an effect can lead to the appearance of periods in the time series of the radioactive decay rate fluctuations, which have been the subject of intensive study in the last decade. Two mechanisms for identifying periods are considered: the study of deviations from the theoretical curve of the radioactive decay law and the study of the properties of fluctuations. It is shown that the latter method leads to a universal spectrum of periods observed not only in the time series of the radioactive decay rate fluctuations, but also in the time series of fluctuations of processes of various nature. The main object of our study are periods in the radioactive decay rate fluctuations. The presence of such periods suggests the possibility of external influence on the process of radioactive decay. Therefore, we briefly consider the evolution of views on the possibility of such an effect. To do this, we distinguish several stages. The division into stages is only partially historical, but, mainly, each stage characterizes a certain ideas that is implemented in it.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        The first stage begins almost from the discovery of
radioactivity by A. Becquerel in 1896. Since that time,
attempts of external influences on the radioactive decay
rate have been made. As an example of such studies of that
time, one can take Rutherford experiment [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], in which a
certain amount of radioactive gas of radon was contained
in a high pressure vessel with smokeless powder.
Estimates show that at the moment of detonation of the
explosive, the maximum temperature in the vessel reached
2500 °C and a pressure of about 1000 atm. Under these
conditions, the gamma activity of the radon remained
unchanged. Finally, the results of such studies led to the
conclusion that the rate of radioactive decay is constant
under any conditions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Studies of radon activity allowed Rutherford to obtain
the basic law of radioactive decay [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]:
      </p>
      <p>N (t) = N0e−λt (1)
where N0 is the number of radioactive nuclei at an arbitrary
initial moment t = 0, λ is the radioactive decay constant
(characterizes the probability of one atom decay in one
second). This law is valid only for the statistical mean and
in the case of a large number of atoms in the radioactive
isotope under examination. Fig. 1a) shows dependence (1).
As can be seen from the figure, this is a smooth curve,
which is completely determined by expression (1). The
only parameter, on which the shape of the curve depends,
is the decay constant λ, a constant which characterizes a
given isotope.</p>
      <p>However, in reality, the results of successive
measurements of the radioactive decay rate, looks like in
fig. 1b). These are random fluctuations. Each point of the
curve in fig. 1a) is the mean calculated on the basis of the
time series segment similar to that shown in fig. 1b).</p>
      <p>The probability to detect the decay of n particles from
the total number N of radioactive nuclei is:</p>
      <p>ωn =(Nnλ!t)n exp(−Nλ t) (2)
Expression (2) is the Poisson distribution well known from
statistics. As one can see, this statistical model lacks
physical parameters that could describe an external
influence.</p>
      <p>The negative results of Rutherford’s experiments on
the effect on the radioactive decay rate have consolidated
the opinion that radioactive decay, in terms of its
instantaneous values, is a random and unpredictable
process. This “random face” of radioactive decay is shown
in fig.1 and given by expression (2). On the other hand, if
we determine with high accuracy the mean values of the
radioactive decay rate, then it can serve as an analogue of
ultra-stable clocks whose course is determined only by the
decay constant λ, which does not depend on any external
influences, as follows from (1), and is shown in Fig. 1a).
Fig. 1. Two “faces” of radioactive decay: a deterministic,
ultrastable process, a); a noise-like process, the instantaneous values
of which are random and unpredictable, b). In fact, b) is a
microscopic, local part of curve a)</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. "Deformation" of the electron shell and the radioactive decay rate</title>
      <p>The description of radioactive decay on the basis of (1)
and (2), despite the fact that it was created in the initial
period of the study of radioactivity, was included in most
university textbooks, became the basis and, mainly, the
only content, of the modern educational standard. At that,
the authors usually emphasize that radioactive decay is a
fundamentally statistical phenomenon, and that
“Experiments with radioactive substances have shown that
no external conditions (heating to high temperatures,
magnetic and electric fields, high pressures) can affect the
nature and decay rate” [4, p. 92]. That is, the possibility, at
least hypothetical, of an external influence on the
radioactive decay rate is completely excluded.</p>
      <p>It is necessary to note that the first stage considered
above is a pre-quantum one. The appearance and
development of quantum mechanics marks the second
stage, which begins in the post-war period and is
characterized by the creation of quantum-mechanical
models of nuclear phenomena. Due to this, it was shown
that various effects on the electron shell (superstrong
magnetic fields, pressure, changes in the chemical
environment, degree of atomic ionization) leading to its
changes or ‘deformations’ can affect the radioactive decay
rate.</p>
      <p>
        The findings of the aforementioned models were
confirmed by numerous, carefully performed experiments.
As an example is work [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ], in which the process of β-decay
of fully ionized 187Re was studied. Full ionization reduced
the half-life by 109 times (4.2⋅1010 years for a neutral atom
and 33 years for a fully ionized one). In the case of
αdecay, the α-particle birth probability in the nucleus is
associated with the problem of tunneling through the
barrier. It was shown [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ] that the permeability of a barrier
depends on an electron shell. Therefore, by influencing the
electron shell, one can change the rate of α-decay. Thus,
the Rutherford taboo on the possibility of influencing the
rate of radioactive decay was canceled at the second stage.
      </p>
      <p>Summing up, it can be noted that the second stage is
characterized by the creation of theoretical models that
demonstrate the possibility of influencing the rate of
radioactive decay through a change in the state of the
electron shell of an atom. The conclusions of these models
are confirmed by numerous experiments. There are many
works on this topic that are published in leading world
physical journals.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Periods in time series of the radioactive decay rate</title>
      <p>In contrast to the second stage, where the characteristic
energy of the impact on the radioactive isotopes, is much
less than the Coulomb barrier, but still very significant, in
the third stage, as a rule, this energy is close to zero. In this
case, both the isotope and the recording equipment are
shielded from any external influences, which are usually
of geophysical origin (temperature, pressure, humidity,
etc).</p>
      <p>It is very interesting that in such undisturbed time
series, various periods were found. By the analogy with
two ‘faces’ of radioactive decay, the works of the third
stage, searching for the periods, study the deviations from
the radioactive decay curve, fig.1a). That is, the studied
‘signal’ is the difference between the theoretical curve (1)
and the correspondingly averaged experimental time
series. Subsequently, such time series of the differences
are examined for the presence of periods by various
methods of spectral and correlation analysis.</p>
      <p>
        One of the first studies in this direction was a series of
works [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7 ref8">7-8</xref>
        ], in which variations in the decay rate of 14С
and tritium with annual periods were found, as well as a
noticeable effect of geomagnetic disturbances (strong
magnetic storms). Also in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ], cyclical changes in the
average and dispersion values of the decay rate of the
measured tritium standard with periods of about 60
minutes and 3 hours were found. The authors emphasize
that the amplitudes of the periods increase at low values of
geomagnetic activity.
      </p>
      <p>
        Perhaps, the most systematic study of periods in
longterm series of the radioactive decay rate was carried out in
the works of A.G. Parkhomov, started back in the 1990s
and resulted by 2004 with convincing experimental
evidence of the presence of various periods from diurnal
to annual in β-radioactivity [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]. His studies are
summarized in monograph [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Based on the work of A.G. Parkhomov and other authors
one can conclude that annual and seasonal periods usually
have relative amplitudes of ~ 10-1…10-3, while the amplitudes
of the monthly and daily periods are ~ 10-3…10-5.</p>
      <p>
        The annual period was also found in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ], where
longterm series of the decay rate of the 226Ra isotope (record
length 15 years), measured in Physikalisch-Technische
Bundesanstalt (PTB) and 32Si (record length - 4 years),
measured in Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL),
were analyzed. In addition to the annual period, it was also
found that cyclical changes in the activity of 226Ra and 32Si
correlate with a value of 1/R2, where R is the Earth-Sun
distance, and demonstrate synchronism in the coincident
part of the BNL and PTB time series.
      </p>
      <p>
        Although the works of E. Fischbach are not pioneering
(the annual period was discussed, for example, in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]), they
were destined to attract and, to some extent, change the
world scientific opinion regarding the possibility of the
existence of the abovementioned periods. Possibly, due to
these works, the topics related to periods in the radioactive
decay rate are actively discussed on the pages of
international physics journals. To date, the number of such
publications is in the hundreds.
      </p>
      <p>Summarizing this section, we can conclude that the
presence of periods may indicate the presence of some
unidentified, presumably very weak external influence
that affects the radioactive decay rate. At present,
mechanisms of such influence can be only hypothesized.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Periods in the time series of the radioactive</title>
      <p>decay rate fluctuations</p>
      <p>As noted in the previous section, in almost all the
works of the third stage, where periods from the day-year
range were found, classical methods of spectral and
correlation analysis are used. This is due to the fact that
the object of study in these works is the mean values
slight variations on the curve of radioactive decay, fig. 1a).
In the works that we refer to the fourth stage, the object of
study is the time series of fluctuations in the radioactive
decay rate, i.e., the process shown in fig. 1b). It this case
the properties of fluctuations are investigated, without
respect to behavior of average values. In this case, weak
variations of the averages can be eliminated from the
studied time series by the appropriate computational
procedure, but this does not affect the information
contained in the fluctuations.</p>
      <p>
        To study the properties of fluctuations, time series
similar to those shown in fig. 1b) must be parameterized
in a certain way. After that, the appropriate methods are
used to analyze the obtained sequences of parameters.
Below we will briefly consider two groups of works that
differ in the method of parameterization: the expert
histogram comparisons method of S.E. Schnoll [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ]
(parameterization is performed using smoothed
histograms constructed from short (30-60 points)
consecutive segments of time series) and local fractal
analysis by the all permutations method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13 ref14">13-14</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>S.E. Schnoll research</p>
      <p>These studies started in 1951-56, when S.E. Schnoll
began a systematic study of fluctuations in the
measurement results of the biochemical reactions rates.
The reason to start these studies was an unusually large
amplitude of observed fluctuations. However, their most
striking property was strongly rugged histograms shapes
spectra of amplitudes of the measured fluctuations values.
In some experiments, these rugged histograms were
surprisingly similar to each other. This phenomenon was
called the macroscopic fluctuations phenomenon.</p>
      <p>
        Using the histogram method (the method of time series
studying by the pairwise expert comparison of the shapes
of histograms [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ]), the following basic properties of the
macroscopic fluctuations phenomenon were obtained
[1314].
      </p>
      <p>A near-zone effect. A significantly higher probability
of the appearance of similar shapes of histograms in the
nearest (neighboring) non-overlapping intervals of the
time series.</p>
      <p>Universality of the macroscopic fluctuations
phenomenon. It lies in the high similarity in the shape of
histograms constructed from the results of simultaneous,
independent measurements of fluctuations in processes of
various nature.</p>
      <p>Periodicity in manifestation of the macroscopic
fluctuations phenomenon. An important evidence of the
nonrandomness of the shapes of histograms is their regular
changes in time. These changes of the patterns of
histograms are manifested in the presence of periods:
diurnal (1440 min and 1436 min), about 27-days periods,
annual periods (‘calendar’ - 365 days and sidereal - 365
days 6 hours and 9 minutes).</p>
      <p>A local time effect. Manifests itself in a high probability
of occurrence of pairs of histograms with similar shapes in
different geographical locations at the same local
(longitude) time.</p>
      <p>Dependence of the similarity of the shapes of
histograms on the direction in space.</p>
      <p>Specific histogram shapes, which appear at the
moments of new moons and at the maximum of solar
eclipses, during the rising and setting of the Sun and the
Moon.</p>
      <p>
        Local fractal analysis by all permutations method
In [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15 ref16">15-16</xref>
        ], a local fractal analysis of noise-like time
series by the all permutations method (APM) was
developed. This method synthesized the basic ideas of the
method of minimum cover [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref33">33</xref>
        ] (MMC) with the
requirement of fractal dimension invariance with respect
to linear transformations (shifts, dilatations, mirror
reflections), as well as regarding to permutations of the
elements of a time series segment, on the basis of which
the fractal dimension is calculated. The latter property is a
distinctive feature of the APM-method, which gives it a
number of unique properties. The most important of them
is locality - the ability to calculate the fractal dimension
for short (tens of points) segments of the analyzed time
series.
      </p>
      <p>Unlike to the MMC-method, for a time series segment
of length N = 2n, the APM-method allows one to analyze
N - 1 scales, rather than n, as in the MMC-method and
other methods commonly used to calculate fractal
dimension. Due to this property, the value of N can be
significantly reduced, and the accuracy of determining the
fractal dimension increases significantly.
Fig. 4. Multiplication of 329-day normalized interval
distributions</p>
      <p>
        One of the first results of the APM-method application
for the analysis of noise-like time series is the study of a
329-day array of fluctuations in the α-decay rate, as a
result of which a stable set of periods was found in the
range of 1-115 min [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17 ref18">17-18</xref>
        ]. It was shown that the periods
found in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17 ref18">17-18</xref>
        ] coincide with the periods of the Earth
natural oscillations [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
        ]. This coincidence is manifested
for both classical and long-wave oscillations of the Earth
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>For the indicated range of periods, not only the close
relationship of the found spectrum with the spectrum of
the Earth's natural oscillations was shown, but also its
universal nature: the spectra of the periods found for
fluctuation process in the systems of various nature
(physical, chemical, biological) always coincided with the
corresponding part of the spectrum found for time series
of the α -decay rate fluctuations.</p>
      <p>
        In further studies, using the APM-method, stable
ultradian periods were obtained in the range of 2-24 hours
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21 ref22">21-22</xref>
        ], which also coincided with the corresponding
periods of the Earth's natural long-wave oscillations [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23">23</xref>
        ].
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5. Conclusions</title>
      <p>
        The previous studies [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17 ref18 ref21 ref22">17-18, 21-22</xref>
        ], have shown that
most periods from the found spectrum coincide with
periods of the Earth's natural oscillations. Its universal
nature was shown as well: the periods found in the time
series of fluctuations of various nature processes always
coincide with the corresponding part of this spectrum.
Further investigations made it possible to clarify a number
of periods of the found spectrum, as well as to reveal new
ones, including those not belonging to the spectrum of the
Earth’s natural oscillations [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref24">24</xref>
        ]. Along with the
coincidence of the spectrum with the spectra of various
fluctuation processes of ‘terrestrial’ origin, for example,
temperature fluctuations of small mammals and birds [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref25">25</xref>
        ]
and planaria chemiluminescence [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref26">26</xref>
        ], its coincidence with
the spectra of periods of a number of astrophysical systems
is very interesting.
      </p>
      <p>
        Thus, the spectrum of periods [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17 ref18">17-18</xref>
        ] was also found
in the spectra of astrophysical masers [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref27 ref28 ref29 ref30">27-30</xref>
        ] and in the
spectrum of rotational periods of asteroids [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref31">31</xref>
        ]. All
previously mentioned allows us to make an assumption
about the cosmophysical origin of the spectrum [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17 ref18">17-18</xref>
        ]. It
is possible that in this case we are dealing with a global
synchronization to which, according to A.M. Molchanov
hypothesis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref32">32</xref>
        ], any dynamically mature system should
come.
      </p>
      <p>
        In view of the above-said, it is important to note the
universality of the spectrum [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17 ref18">17-18</xref>
        ], which can be found
in fluctuations of various nature processes.
      </p>
    </sec>
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