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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Analysis of PSC gross split implementation in Russian offshore</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>M.I. Kiat</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>S.I. Iliukhin, A.Kh. Ozdoeva</addr-line>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Product Sharing Contract with Gross Split scheme come up as an alternative solution for developing a healthy, fair and sustainable international oil and gas cooperation in Russian offshore [1]. In the application, benefits will be optimal for all parties if all legal requirements and business interests are met. Regarding that, the monitoring process on PSC GS implementation is as crucial as the negotiation process in making suitable terms and conditions for both parties. However, the real problem is negotiation participants (representatives of parties) are not fully aware of all PSC elements, which causes long, uncertain, and repetitive discussion or even results in unfair domination of one party over another. This paper shows the design of the tree and expert analysis to help all parties understand PSC elements, sensitivities, and their interactions before entering negotiation process. The methodology used is a theoretical survey (analysis &amp; synthesis) based on world practices and Russian economical, technical, and geological characteristics. The result depicts both analyses are important materials to prepare all parties for the effective decision making process as well as support the establishment of win-win contract details.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Since the date it’s created in 2017, PSC with the new
scheme started to implement in more than 42 working
areas in Indonesia. The main differences of this hybrid of
PSC and concession from others (basic ideas) are as
follows: split starts from gross revenue; IOC takes 100%
responsibility of E&amp;P cost; and HG can increase/decrease
IOC’s share by assessing variable (every POD) and
progressive components (monthly), design of which is
based on existing oil and gas fields calibration. Facing
difficulties to explore and develop its resources in certain
complex field condition, Russia is obviously in need of
applying PSC GS to increase its fiscal attractiveness.
Because existing contracts don’t have necessary
functionality for efficient, simple, certain and transparent
interaction with IOCs, while the international
collaboration is significant due to the absence of
sufficient technologies, facilities, human resources and
investments [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]. After all, it’s not the same PSC GS
scheme to offer to implement in different countries, but
the analogy of it by maintaining the basic ideas and
adjusting the clauses, which are shown in table 1.
      </p>
      <p>
        Table 1. PSC basic elements (clauses) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref11 ref12 ref13 ref14 ref15 ref16 ref17 ref18 ref3 ref4 ref5 ref6 ref7 ref8 ref9">3-18</xref>
        ]
      </p>
      <p>National Legislation Contract Negotiation
Operational Government Work commitment;
Aspects participation; Relinquishment;
Ownership transfer; Commerciality
Conflict resolution;</p>
      <p>Insurance
Revenue or Royalties; Taxation; Bonus payments; Cost
Production Depreciation rates; recovery limits;
Sharing Investment credit; Production sharing
Elements Domestic Market;</p>
      <p>Obligation;</p>
      <p>Ringfencing</p>
      <p>It’s undeniable that there are tendencies from both
parties to dominate the contract. The negotiation trade-off
between HG and IOCs lies in the clauses above. Thus,
every party should analytically and statistically
understand how the elements mean to control each
bargain position. This is necessary to establish win-win
solution contracts.
2.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Tree analysis</title>
      <p>
        Based on all PSC basic elements, decision tree
analysis is presented in Fig. 1. The map shows the details
of basic elements and possible options of their
implementation. Considering a large number of different
proposed contracts, the tree allows parties to fast and
thoroughly understand how this or that project can be
economically effective for all, which is certainly based on
comprehensive analysis of their capacity, market
conditions, and specific interests. It is worth noting that
the assessment of possible solutions in this analysis
allows you to determine a strategy for public-private
partnership within the framework of commercial,
budgetary, social, technological and environmental
efficiency [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Referring to the map, onshore and Caspian offshore
are not a prioritized option due to the fact that Russian
companies are able to deal with those fields, except, shale
and other unconventional fields, while offshore fields,
which require more cost and technologies, are more
challengeable. Therefore, by considering their most
difficult circumstances the focus is on Sakhalin and
Arctic.
3.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Expert’s analysis</title>
      <p>Fig. 1. Decision tree analysis (Created by Authors)</p>
      <p>Gov participation Gov+NOC+ROC+IOC</p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Conflict resolution</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>DD&amp;A Rates</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-3">
        <title>Ringfencing DMO</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-4">
        <title>Arbitration, local litigation as an alternative Arbitration</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-5">
        <title>Long period with SLD scheme Short period with DDB scheme</title>
        <p>Yes
No</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-6">
        <title>Yes, 25%, at specific lower cost No DMO or 25% DMO at market cost</title>
        <p>Low sunk cost, high development feasibility, &amp; high geopotential.</p>
        <p>Note
Considering high risks in
exploration phase, Contractor tends
to recover sunk cost maximally.</p>
        <p>Geopotential is the key to decide
whether field development is
feasible in high sunk cost.</p>
        <p>Incremental sliding scale
Base split + variable production sharing guarantees
(fixed) and progressive flexibility, fairness, simplicity,
(monthly) components transparency &amp; certainty of HG and
Contractor's share.</p>
        <p>Cost Recovery by IOC after gross
After gross split with</p>
        <p>revenue split stimulates work
50% limit
efficiency of the contractor
Fiscal incentive supports contractor
with financial risks. In Indonesian
GSS profit tax is the one and only
tax. But in Russia, considering the
taxation habit, some key taxes are
put in to Russian GSS.</p>
        <p>Mostly, cost recovery weighs on
Replaced by gross</p>
        <p>HG's take. Therefore, to secure total
revenue split and</p>
        <p>take, HG sets 5-20% royalties,
Incremental sliding</p>
        <p>which results in increase of
scale components</p>
        <p>contractor's burden.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-7">
        <title>Tech: Seismic, &amp;</title>
        <p>Drilling Data in In gross split, work commitment is
exploration. Financial: valued not only by reliable seismic
partial or full and drilling data and delineation,
investment with but also signature bonus. In dev. &amp;
reimbursement. prod. phase, incentive components
Domestic content min automatically respond to contractor
25%. Equipment, HR, work commitment. The stronger the
Tech based on variable commitment is made, the more
and progressive contractor's take is increased, and
components (sliding vice versa.</p>
        <p>scale system).</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-8">
        <title>International Arbitration, and International litigation as alternative</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-9">
        <title>In IOC's view, working with many</title>
        <p>parties is not preferable due to
different cultures. Though risk can
be spread. In HG's view,
involvement of National &amp; private</p>
        <p>Russian companies makes it easier
Gov+NOC+IOC
to control fraud, balance dominant
power and learn science-tech from
IOC. Overall, collaboration is
needed but with limited players.</p>
        <p>NOC's carried through exploration,
has 15% interests.</p>
        <p>Applying basic principles
(Certainty, Efficiency and
Simplicity), GSS gets rid of many
conflict potentials. But when it
appears, the mechanism of
resolution has to be transparent,
cheap, effective and efficient.</p>
        <p>GSS facilitates contractor to better
amortize its capex &amp; opex. The
tittle to equip belongs to HG. WP is
working period.</p>
        <p>HG motivates contractor to do
Yes efficiency in order to maximize its
total take
Yes, 25%, at market IOC has already consumer. For HG,
cost DMO can help fulfill national
Period CAPEX ≤ ½ of
WP (DDB); OPEX ≤
2/3 of WP (SLD)
12</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-10">
        <title>Bonus payments</title>
        <p>13
14
15
16</p>
        <p>It also provides optimum requirements in the form
of PSC GS. As it can be seen from table 2, PSC GS
allows HG and IOC to come to an understanding and to
identify common goals in running the collaborative
projects. In addition, what will be given special
attention is described in notes. Changing the ratio of
costs and potential benefits when applying the PSA will
significantly increase commercial, budgetary,
technological and scientific efficiency (figure 2.)</p>
        <p>Based on the table, commerciality, product sharing,
cost recovery, taxation, and royalties are key elements
in the contract. Therefore, all parties will focus
negotiating the terms and conditions for these elements.
However, all elements play crucial roles in the contract.
For instance, 25% uplift and ownership transfer can
significantly benefit IOC, although 5 above elements
belong to HG.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Conclusion</title>
      <p>To sum up, using both analyzes can prepare
negotiation participants with the picture of PSC
elements, sensitivities, and their interactions; improve
mutual understanding in setting goals; and reduce
potential disputes. Thus, all parties are able to save the
time of signing contracts, minimize costs at further
stages of running project, and achieve win-win solution.
As we’ve known, disputes and renegotiation are
timeconsuming, costly, and sometimes manipulative. In
addition, the cross-analysis gave results in terms of
improving project efficiency by 14.7% for the studied
objects of the Arctic and Sakhalin. Thus, the decision to
include the PSA synthesis model in the framework of
forecast projects for the development of the continental
shelf may become promising in terms of commercial
efficiency. It will also present an opportunity to
improve the scientific and technical potential of the oil
and gas industry not only in Russia but also in other
countries on the world energy market.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgments</title>
      <p>The study was carried out within the framework of
RFBR grants 19-07-00455 and 20-04-60185.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>About the authors</title>
    </sec>
  </body>
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    </ref-list>
  </back>
</article>