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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Assessment of the characteristics of the municipal solid waste management system based on the apparatus of the theory of reliability</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>V.E. Gvozdev, O.I. Khristodulo, O.Y. Bezhaeva, M.R. Shamsutdinov Ufa State Aviation Technical University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Ufa</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Currently, the problem of organizing a municipal solid waste management system (MSW) has become more acute in Russian regions and all over the world. Various environmental and economic problems, as well as problems related to public health negatively affect many aspects of the development of modern society. Therefore, the careful organization of the management of the MSW management system is of great social importance and needs constant improvement. In this paper, we look at the MSW management system from the point of various scientific approaches, namely, structural analysis methods, geoinformation technology methods, reliability theory for complex technical systems, evergetics, graph theory and fuzzy logic methods, including the apparatus of linguistic variables. The purpose of the work is to show the possibility of application and systematic combination of the above scientific methods that have proven themselves well in their fields to a new area of the MSW management systems. However, just application of these approaches is impossible without their further adaptation and systematization from the point of view of existing approaches to the management of similar systems. As part of this study, elements of the MSW management system were identified and a topological model of the system was developed. Structural-logical models of reliability at various levels of abstraction were also built.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>These days, one of the most pressing issues, both for
Russia and its entities, are problems in the field of
environmental protection. Despite the fact that in recent
years various environmental organizations have positively
influenced the current situation, there have been no
qualitative changes in improving the environmental
situation. One of the most pernicious and most dangerous
in terms of environmental impact problems is the irrational
and unstructured waste management.</p>
      <p>
        Currently, the problem of collection, removal, storage
and disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW) has become
more acute in most regions of Russia. On average, about
400 kg of waste generated per year falls on one resident of
a metropolis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. Despite the huge numbers, the MSW
management system has not undergone significant
changes. The main methods of waste treatment are still
landfill, incineration at specialized sites and partial
processing.
      </p>
      <p>The imperfect organization of the MSW management
system can create a number of issues, both for different
sectors of the national economy, the environment, and for
the population. In particular, the accompanying problems
of a poorly organized system of MSW management are the
emergence of natural dumps, overflow of existing landfills
for MSW storage and fatal effects on the ecosystem caused
by harmful emissions into the atmosphere. All this directly
affects the occurrence of serious health problems in the
population due to the deterioration of the environmental
situation, sanitary and hygienic living conditions of the
population and the emergence of factors contributing to
the formation of an unfavorable psychosocial environment
for the people.</p>
      <p>The events of recent days (the COVID-19 pandemic)
have vividly indicated that when assessing alternative
options for building sociotechnical systems from the
standpoint of functional safety, it is necessary to assess the
possible consequences of negative events, not only those
that previously took place, but also those that can only
happen.</p>
      <p>
        The works of many researchers have been devoted to
the development of methodological and theoretical
foundations for the management of functional safety of
subject-centric systems [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3 ref4 ref5">2-5</xref>
        ]. Nevertheless, theoretical
foundations are required to be further developed, allowing
scientifically based adaptation of developments that have
proven to be effective in managing the functional safety of
subject-centric systems of a different nature (health care,
aviation, military operations, etc.) to be implemented to
functional safety management of MSW handling systems.
It seems that, as a conceptual basis for ensuring the
functional safety of the MSW management system, it is
advisable to choose an approach rendered in literature as
“barrier thinking” [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. Its foundation is the
defense-indepth philosophy, developed as part of research related to
improving the functional safety of the nuclear industry.
The focus of philosophy is the development of multi-layer
defense systems. Meanwhile, it is assumed that a separate
barrier cannot completely prevent and eliminate the
negative consequences of hazardous effects. However, the
construction of a system of barriers qualitatively improves
the protective properties of the system due to the system
effect.
      </p>
      <p>
        This work looks at one of the approaches to the study
of the MSW management system, which can be considered
as an element in the system of constructing barriers (the
issue of building barriers is considered more fully, for
example, in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ]). The scientific idea of the proposed
approach, which is based on the theory of evergetics as the
philosophical basis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ], consists in adapting the methods
for analyzing the reliability of technical systems under
fuzzy estimates of the reliability characteristics of
elements as applied to the MSW systems [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ].
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>The features of the management of MSW systems</title>
      <p>
        The management of MSW in the region should begin
with the organization of a unified system of production
accounting for waste, which is the primary information
flow [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. The primary production waste accounting
system includes internal current information and consists
of a quantitative assessment of waste generation for each
technological operation, both by actual indicators of MSW
generation, and by material balance methods, as well as by
calculation methods. An environmental assessment of the
product’s life cycle takes into account the impact on the
environment and human health of not only the material
itself, but also by the processes that accompany it
throughout the life cycle: from the extraction of raw
materials for its production to its destruction, disposal, or
reuse for new construction products.
      </p>
      <p>
        The MSW management system is a subject-centric
complex technical system. The main elements of a MSW
management system are waste sorting stations, waste
recycling stations, and landfills located in a specific area.
At the same time, a critical factor in the effectiveness of
the MSW management system is the attitude of various
target groups of subjects: the population; representatives
of authorities; business representatives; scientists; public
figures. This necessitates the consideration of the
subjective component in the study of the MSW
management systems. And finally, when studying the
MSW management system, it is necessary to take into
account that it is a geotechnical object, i.e. a
geographically distributed system with a unique
combination of natural and technogenic components
throughout the territory [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11 ref12">11-12</xref>
        ], etc.
      </p>
      <p>
        Hence, firstly, there are reasons to adapt approaches
that are well established in other applied fields of research
of complex subject-centric technical systems into the field
of MSW management [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13 ref14">13-14</xref>
        ]. Secondly, the limited
portability of the results obtained to other geotechnical
systems should be considered [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15 ref16">15-16</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        The most famous metaphor representing the essence of
“barrier thinking” is proposed in 1990 by the British
scientist J. Reason. This model has found application in
solving various problems of managing complex
subjectcentric systems of different classes and is widely used in
areas such as risk management for aviation, engineering,
and medicine [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17 ref18">17-18</xref>
        ]. This metaphor suggests analyzing
alternative options for constructing false systems in the
early stages of their life cycle in order to reduce the
number of systemic errors. In the framework of the
approach defined in this paper, this suggests the adaptation
of structural methods for analyzing the reliability of
technical systems, taking into account the territorial
features of various components of the MSW management
system.
3.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Transformation of the MSW management system to a type that allows the application of reliability analysis methods based on structural logical schemes</title>
      <p>The results presented below were obtained in relation
to the MSW management system utilized in the Republic
of Bashkortostan.</p>
      <p>The territorial waste management system is made up of
waste producers such as municipal districts (MO); waste
processing structures like waste sorting stations (МСС);
waste recycling stations (МПС), waste landfills (П); waste
collection and transportation services.</p>
      <p>
        To highlight the elements of the MSW management
system, the following basic principles of the analysis of
territorial systems are used. These principles are the
principle of logical completeness in a functional sense and
the principle of transport accessibility [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Following the principle of logical completeness, the
purpose of the MSW management system is to directly
organize the collection, transportation and further
processing (disposal) of waste. Consequently, the
elements of the system will be waste producers, in this case
of municipal districts, waste processing enterprises, here
they are waste sorting stations (МСС), waste recycling
stations (МПС) and waste landfills (П). These elements
ensure the implementation of the goal of the MSW
management system [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20 ref21">20-21</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>The nature of the relations of the elements with each
other should be clarified: at the level of municipal districts,
the regional operator collects the waste generated by
households and enterprises, and thereby solves the
logically completed task: to collect all MSW from the
territory. The collected waste is sent to waste sorting
stations for the separation of MSW by hazard types and
classes for their further disposal at specialized waste
processing enterprises or directly at landfills. There may
be cases of transportation of waste for temporary storage
at landfills in cases of temporary inability of the МСС and
the МПС to accept MSW due to the overflow or in the case
of technical or other equipment failures. Therefore, a
separate functional task is the transportation of MSW,
which makes it possible to distinguish the transport
network as the element of the system.</p>
      <p>Consider the MSW collection and transportation
system: we will designate all waste producers of a specific
municipal entity as МО, waste sorting stations as MCC,
waste recycling stations as МПС, and landfills as П. Also,
we will consider the main links of the waste transportation
chain: from the municipality to the landfill (МО → П);
from the landfill to the waste sorting station (П → МСС);
from the waste sorting station to the waste recycling
station (МСС → МПС).</p>
      <p>As an example, we will consider municipalities of the
Yanaul, Krasnokamsky, Kaltasinsky, Buraevsky,
Tatyshlinsky and Baltachevsky municipal districts of the
Republic of Bashkortostan (Fig. 1).</p>
      <p>Let's define the conventions for the following
municipalities: Yanaul (МО1), Neftekamsk (МО2),
Agidel (МО3), Krasnokholmsky (МО4), Verhnie
Tatyshly (МО5), Staroboltachevo (МО6), Buraevo
(МО7). The proposed routes for transporting MSW from
municipalities (МО) to waste sorting stations (МСС) are
presented in Figure 2.</p>
      <p>To highlight elements of the MSW management
system, we use a functional approach.</p>
      <p>From the point of view of functional completeness and
indivisibility, the following groups of elements of the
waste management system can be distinguished:
〈{МО}, {R}, {МСС}, {МПП}, {П}〉.</p>
      <p>The objects of the system are: {МО} is a set of
municipalities (nodes of the graph); {R} is a set of
transportation routes connecting objects (edges of the
graph); {МСС} is a set of waste sorting stations (nodes of
the graph); {МПП} is a set of waste recycling stations
(nodes of the graph); {П} is a set of polygons (nodes of the
graph).</p>
      <p>We will transform the topological model of the MSW
collection and transportation system to the form of a graph
that reflects the various communication routes (roads)
between the МО, П, and МСС (Fig. 3).</p>
      <p>The results obtained form the basis for further use of
formal methods of structural reliability analysis.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Structural-logical schemes of different levels of abstraction of the MSW management system</title>
      <p>The works on the theory of reliability for technical
systems emphasize that the formulation of the concept of
“failure” is the basis for building models of reliability for
technical systems.</p>
      <p>Due to the complexity of the MSW management
system, as well as its multi-level structure, the definition
of the element failure concept will be different for each
level of the MSW management system, namely the level
of the municipality, the level of the regional operator and
the level of the region. Therefore, for each formulation of
the concept of failure, there will be its own model of
system reliability.
МО2
МО3
МО1
МО4
МО7
МО6
МО5
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
R8
R9
R10
R11
R12
R13
R14
R15
R16
R17
П(F)
П(C)
П(D)
П(B)
П(A)</p>
      <p>R18
R19
R20
R21
R22
МСС</p>
      <p>Munilaciypearlities Landfill layer Wstaatsitoenssolratyinegr
Fig. 3. Model of the network structure of the MSW collection
and transportation system
Structural logical model of reliability at the level
of container sites</p>
      <p>At the level of container sites, the refusal will mean the
following: 1) inability of the regional MSW management
operator to organize the collection of MSW from the
container sites (special sites for bulky waste, the territory
adjacent to the place of garbage loading) due to reasons
such as the absence of a container on the site , lack of
access to the container on the site, overflow of containers
installed on the site in at least for one household; 2)
inability of the regional MSW management operator to
collect MSW from container sites due to the absence or
improper state of roads at least for one household.</p>
      <p>At this level of abstraction, the functional elements of
the system will be {МО, R}, where МО refers to a
container site for collecting MSW for a municipality, and
{R} means transport routes between container sites for
collecting MSW and waste sorting stations or landfills.</p>
      <p>Based on the defined definitions, the container site may
be associated with structural-logical model (Fig. 4).
МО</p>
      <p>R
/
Structural logical model of reliability at the level
of the municipality</p>
      <p>In the case of many sites and several roads from
container sites to waste sorting stations or landfills with
the same wording of the concept of failure, the structural
logical model accepts the one presented in Figure 5. This
model considers the fact that before the container site i
(МОi) can be reached in different ways {Ri, j}.
R i,j-1</p>
      <p>R i,j
R 1,j-1</p>
      <p>R 1,j
МО1
МОi
/</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Qualitative assessment of reliability indicators of the components of the MSW management system</title>
      <p>
        The basis for obtaining quantitative estimates of
reliability indicators based on structural logical schemes is
the use of failure probabilities (fail-free operation) of the
elements that make up the scheme. When analyzing the
reliability of technical systems, reliability indicators are
either presented in the passport data for the elements or can
be obtained through specially organized tests. When
analyzing MSW management systems, it is not possible to
obtain reliability indicators through the above approaches.
For that reason, it is proposed to use the approach
described in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref22">22</xref>
        ] to obtain qualitative estimates of
reliability. The paper describes the procedure for
estimating paths in a graph for the case of the edges of the
graph are weighted as values of a pre-formed linearly
ordered linguistic scale (an example of a linguistic scale in
relation to reliability problems can be, for example,
{unbelievable, unlikely, probably}). Following this
procedure, if a consistent connection of elements takes
place in the structural logical scheme, the reliability
estimate will be the smallest of the linguistic evaluations
that are assigned to each element. In the case of a parallel
connection, the estimate will be the largest of the
estimates. Figures 6-7 show examples corresponding to
serial and parallel connection of structural logic elements.
      </p>
      <p>C1
unlikely</p>
      <p>C2
likely</p>
      <p>C3
impossible
/</p>
      <p>For the example in Figure 6, the final estimate would
be min {unlikely, likely, impossible} =impossible. For the
example in Figure 7, the final score would be max
{unlikely, likely, impossible} =likely. The use of linearly
ordered linguistic variables makes it possible to obtain
qualitative estimates of the reliability characteristics for
models of container sites and municipalities.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>6. Conclusions</title>
      <p>The proposed approach, based on a systematic
combination of the geographic information technologies,
the apparatus of the theory of reliability, and the apparatus
of linguistic scales allows to obtain qualitative estimates
of reliability of the waste management system
components. This makes it possible to formalize the
procedure for comparing alternative options for the
location of elements of the MSW management system at
the early stages of designing geotechnical systems. The
proposed approach is one of the practical methods for
implementing barrier thinking in a as socially significant
area as waste management.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Acknowledgments</title>
      <p>The reported study was funded by RFBR, project
number 18-08-00885.</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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