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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>A Fuzzy-Possibility Approach to a Multi-Factor Comparison of the Efficiency of the Scales for Assessing the Competencies of the Examinee</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Saint Petersburg State University</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Universitetskaya embankment</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>St. Petersburg</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Russia nelly.d@zoho.com</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>morozova.m@mail.ru</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>St. Petersburg Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>14th line V.O., 39, 199178 St. Petersburg</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>St. Petersburg National Research University of Information Technologies</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Mechanics and Optics, Kronverkskiy prospect, 49, letter A, 197101 St. Petersburg</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <fpage>0000</fpage>
      <lpage>0001</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>One of the main and essential elements of the educational process is the assessment of the quality of the test takers' competencies in the process of mastering curricula. The main final tool of this process for the teacher and the test-taker is the assigned grade according to the accepted scale. The existing commonly used and historically developed in Russia five-point system, which has been repeatedly discussed and criticized in pedagogical communities, has a fundamental drawback - it is based on an ordinal scale (points), which does not have the property of addition. The restructuring of higher education has led to the expansion of the powers of the university, in particular, the choice of the student assessment system. This made it possible to search for more convenient non-traditional scales with more differentiable estimation properties. For the first time, on the basis of a fuzzy-possibility approach, the expertise of teachers of the English language was formalized in the form of mathematical models, and then, using these models, a comparison was made of two common scales for assessing the knowledge of test-takers - the "five-point" (actually threepoint) scale adopted in Russia and ECTS (European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System). It is shown that the ECTS scale is provided by a more subtle psychological and pedagogical tool for both the teacher and the student in assessing their knowledge, while the “five-point” scale does not possess such properties. The general requirements for the selected rating scales have been clarified: continuity is an inherent property of any numerical scale.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>fuzzy-possibility model</kwd>
        <kwd>competency assessment scales</kwd>
        <kwd>expert knowledge</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        Each person understands what knowledge is, although a decent definition for it has
not yet been invented. The industrial stage of society's development has been replaced
by a new evolutionary phase, the phase of informatization, in which the most effective
and dynamic development of society is possible on the basis of the fullest possible use
of available information resources, primarily knowledge, and means of their
processing. Typical knowledge representation models are logical models; products;
semantic networks; frames; scripts; production rules, fuzzy neural network models do
not provide an opportunity to obtain analytical models, although the problem of
extracting, evaluating and using knowledge is coming to the fore. But it, in the opinion
of IT specialists, is "the narrowest and most complex problem", because verbal expert
knowledge is difficult and inconvenient for computer processing [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        At the same time, the teacher assessing the competence of the student is in the
typical conditions of an "intellectual information and diagnostic system" [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]:. an expert is
viewed as an intellectual measuring and diagnostic system. This definition applies
completely to the profession of a teacher, as it is certain that they: possess intellect;
carry out knowledge assessment in a specific area of a discipline; and diagnose the
general extent of competence development in the examinee. This definition meets the
description of expert’s work in any sphere and is increasingly applied in technical and
IT sciences. The decision-making mechanism in the situation of uncertainty is
described with the help of models based on the expert's explicit and implicit knowledge
and their professional experience [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">2,3</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Replacing the knowledge of an expert teacher with a mathematical model opens up
ample opportunities for carrying out additional research and solving various
pedagogical problems, including comprehending their preferences when assessing the quality
of a student's competence. However, the optimization of the assessment of verbal
linguistic competencies (knowledge) by quantitative categories depends not only on
the qualifications of the teacher, but is also inextricably linked with the scales used.
The need to choose effective scales for assessing competencies is most tangible in
everyday teaching practice [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        This study reflects the expertise of teachers and gives an example of constructing
fuzzy-possibility models to assess students` language (linguistic) and speech
competencies, and then, evaluate the effectiveness of two fundamentally different scales.
The research was carried out with several groups of students studying English at B2
level (under the CEFR [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ] in situations of cross-cultural foreign language
communication. In order to build such models, it is essential to use a set of variables constituting
the factor space within which the teacher decides whether the level of required
competence was achieved [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ].
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. The applied method and formulation of the problem of assessing the scales</title>
      <p>
        An important condition for the study of pedagogical activity is the possibility of
modeling its individual aspects, for example, to create expert systems for monitoring
a student`s competence in a specific subject in the multifactorial space. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. At the
same time, the authors themselves believe that the main reason for not entirely
successful attempts to create them is the lack of a methodology for representing
knowledge in a convenient form for computer processing [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ].The methodology of the
fuzzy-possibility approach of extracting, presenting and formalizing explicit and
implicit expert knowledge for technical systems has been created [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ] and is currently
being tested in the field of pedagogy in teaching English at the university [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>2.1. A Fuzzy-Possibility Approach to Building Expert Knowledge Models</title>
        <p>Implicit expert knowledge, containing the teacher's professional experience, along
with explicit ones, plays a key role in decision-making processes about the state of a
learner's competence of any level of complexity. Therefore, a generalized description
of the problem of extracting and formalizing explicit and implicit expert knowledge
by a mathematical model is multifaceted and should contain all the necessary
procedures of a systematic approach. In a set-theoretic setting, the entire procedure can be
expressed by a tuple:</p>
        <p>&lt;X, Фz, Ez kr , Fz , Mz , ZEpr(q,t,μ), ZEfs(q,t,μ),ZEaa (q,t,μ),К,Y/Ξ &gt;,
where
X – is the set of states of competencies in the English language course;
Фz – a set of methods of knowledge extraction;
Ez pr – a set of methods of knowledge representation;
Fz – a set of methods and algorithms for formalizing knowledge;</p>
        <p>Mz – is a set of conditions necessary for performing all operations in building
models;</p>
        <p>MZE (q, t, μ) – expert meta-knowledge, including explicit professional ZEpr(q,t,μ),
implicit ZEpr(q,t,μ)and knowledge in adjacent areas ZEaa (q,t,μ) for solving the
problem of the state of competencies in the English language course;</p>
        <p>K – is a set of quality indicators for solving problems of assessing the state of a
student's competencies;</p>
        <p>Y / Ξ – a set of classes of states of knowledge, one of which should include the
result of the determination (diagnostic assessment scale).</p>
        <p>The problem of constructing a fuzzy-possibility model is as follows. The
metaknowledge MZE(q,t,μ) of an expert, including professional explicit ZEpr(q,t,μ) and
implicit ZEaa (q,t,μ),knowledge about the state of the student's competencies as a
phenomenon needs to be transformed into a form convenient for computer processing.</p>
        <p>The essence of the application of the fuzzy-possibility approach to the
approximation of explicit and implicit knowledge of a teacher by a mathematical model is
presented in Fig. 1.</p>
        <p>As follows from the analysis of Fig. 1, the expert solves the task of assessing the
student's competencies directly by the ratio μ Y / Ξ, but to understand the processes
occurring in their mind, this ratio has to be presented as a composition of relations
μ = g1◦g2◦g3,
where
g1 – is the ratio of metaknowledge extraction MZE(q,t,μ) of an expert of a set of
indicators for solving the problem of assessing the state of competencies of a
particular student;</p>
        <p>g2 – the ratio of the representation of indicators Ezkr in the form of linguistic
variables and the formation of factor space, in which the expert makes a decision in a
particular situation;</p>
        <p>g3 – the ratio of formalization of expert knowledge in the form of a polynomial
expression on the set of linguistic production rules of the "situation - assessment" type
with diagnosing the state of the student's competencies on the scale of the factor set Y
/ Ξ.</p>
        <p>
          Within the framework of this study, the factor space corresponding to the task of
constructing a mathematical model for assessing the competencies of the test taker in
English was determined by seven input variables [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>X1 – discourse competence when evaluating: coherence, cohesion and consistency
of the examinee’s answer; and the ability to produce reasoned statements and to
indulge in critical thinking. There should be a particular emphasis on the ability of
students to support the statement with relevant examples, statistical data and references
to the latest research in a specific area.</p>
        <p>Grammar competence implies two factors:</p>
        <p>X2 – communication in a natural manner, using proper and adequate grammar
structures depending on the context of the utterance.</p>
        <p>X3 – usage of diverse grammatical structures of the English language in accordance
with the indicated level.</p>
        <p>Lexico-semantic competence has also been considered in two aspects:
Х4 – skills to select vocabulary depending on the situation, diversity of vocabulary
and, as a result, absence of repetition.</p>
        <p>Х5 – adequacy of lexical elements.</p>
        <p>Х6 – phonetic competence, which implies proper intonation, speech fluency,
presence or absence of pronounced accent, pausing or mispronunciation of separate
words.</p>
        <p>Х7 – social interaction competence. This has been limited to the ability of the
examinee: to understand direct or implied sense (meaning) from the speech of the
interlocutor; as well as to use the language for specific purposes depending on the
characteristics of social and professional interaction including the situation and status of the
interlocutor-examiner.</p>
        <p>The choice of competences corresponds to: the systemic approach to the examinee
knowledge assessment procedure; and the overall index of course competence Y.</p>
        <p>
          The main steps of building a fuzzy-possibility model for the assessment of the
examinee`s competencies using the ECTS scale were discussed [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
          ]. Moreover, each of
the above competences, including Y in the factor space, was presented as a linguistic
variable (Figure 2).
        </p>
        <p>The linguistic variable (Fig. 1) is used for converting a verbal grade definition into
quantitative information. It contains three scales on the x-axis: linguistic linguistic F,
..., A (the upper scale); numerical (to convert into natural scale) from 50 to 100%,
respectively; and independent variables, a standardized scale to be used in
experimental design theory [«-1» – lowest grade Е; «+1» – highest grade А]. On the y-axis,
there is the membership function scale of μ (у) grade. This means that the closer the
grade is to the class mode, the higher is its accuracy.</p>
        <p>The converted seven-point ECTS (European Credit Transfer and Accumulation
System) grading scale, which is shown in Table 1, and the generally accepted
threepoint scale in Russia as a part of the “five-point”, were chosen as the scales for
assessing the degree of mastering both individual competencies and the subject as a
whole.</p>
        <p>Table 2 shows a fragment of the examinational matrix with the expert's grades in
linguistic form on the ECTS scale, where each line stands for an implicative
condition-action rule “if …, then …” (“situation” – “grade”).</p>
        <p>
          Conversion of verbal expert grades into numerical form using the scales of Figure
2 and processing these data using the methods of experimental design theory [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">2,3</xref>
          ] has
resulted in the following analytical equation:
        </p>
        <p>Y = 74.80 + 6.83x1 + 5.08x2 + 5.07x3 + 3.90x4 + 4.49x5 + 3.32x7–1.36x2x3x5 +
1.37x2x5x6 + 1.95x3x4x6, (1)
where only significant coefficients are given, and all variables are presented on a
standardized scale according to the formulas:
,
, i - number of variables.</p>
        <p>The constructed model (1) now makes it possible to conduct a study to assess the
effectiveness of the scales. As grading scales for the learning outcomes the ECTS
scales and the five-point scale adopted in Russia were selected.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>2.2. Comparison of the effectiveness of the scales</title>
        <p>The research methodology was as follows. The competence of one and the same
group of students was simultaneously assessed on both scales by the same teacher.
This approach makes it possible to assess only the effectiveness of the scales. The
criterion for the scale's effectiveness was the degree of consistency between the
expert-teacher`s assessments and the constructed fuzzy-possibility model calculations
(1) for assessing course competencies based on the selected factor space.</p>
        <p>The adequacy of analytic equation (1) was verified by two criteria: correlation
between the expert assessment and calculations based on the values in (1) (Figure 3 a) as
confidence that the calculations according to (1) correspond to the expert`s opinion on
the problem under study as a whole, and the correlation between calculated values in
(1) and grades awarded to a group of eight students by the teachers who were not
familiar with this methodology (Fig. 3 b).</p>
        <p>The analysis of the scattering of points around the theoretical regression line (the
diagonal of the square) indicates the expert's high professionalism (Figure 3a, the
correlation coefficient R = 0.98) and the adequacy of the calculations according to the
model (1) in their opinion. At the same time, Figure 3b indicates, firstly, the qualified
assessment of the competences of the examinee by an independent teacher, and,
secondly, the effectiveness of the selected assessment scale throughout the course as a
whole (correlation coefficient R = 0.96).</p>
        <p>Studies of the generally accepted in Russia five-point (and in practice,
"threepoint" scale 3, 4 and 5) using the same methodology and the same factor space led to
the mathematical expression:
The graphs similar to Figure 3 on a “three-point” scale, as shown in Figure 4, allow
us to conclude that the teacher's competence in building the model (Figure 4a) “for
some reason” decreased - the correlation coefficient became R = 0.925, and the
effectiveness of the selected scales of this type, when evaluating the examinees` learning
outcomes for the subject as a whole by the same teacher (Figure 4b), decreased quite
significantly - the correlation coefficient R = 0.74.</p>
        <p>A noteworthy fact is that the nonlinear terms, in models (1) and (2), do not
coincide either in composition or in number, despite the identical verbal assessments of
situations reflecting the teacher`s expertise on the problem under consideration.</p>
        <p>The conducted studies allow us to draw a conclusion which is not in favor of the
Russian scaling system for assessing the student`s competencies.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Discussion of results</title>
      <p>The most important advantage of the ECTS scale is that it is both numeric and
interval. This makes it possible to apply all mathematical statistics methods to the test
scores, for example, adding together, calculating arithmetic means, etc.</p>
      <p>The “five-point” (actually three-point) scale has low efficiency for fundamental
reasons. There is a void between the quality points on the scale. The point scale is
ordinal, in which, by definition, there is no addition operation. Points are not
numbers, although they can be, as in this case, indicated by numbers.</p>
      <p>The study to assess the effectiveness of two fundamentally different scales became
possible due to the use of a fuzzy-possibility approach. The building of mathematical
models has clearly demonstrated the possibility of conducting special studies with
obtaining visual, qualitatively new results. The conclusion about the advantage of the
ECTS interval scale over the point scale is not entirely new, but this study provided
clear evidence of the low efficiency of ordinal scales for assessing students`
competencies using a rigorous mathematical apparatus.</p>
      <p>It should be noted the only drawback of the ECTS scale is that it is discontinuous
at the points of contact of modal intervals, for example A and B (89-90). At such
points, it is advisable that the intervals partially intersect, as is the case in the
fuzzypossibility approach (see Fig. 2). This would give the teacher a psychological
advantage in justifying "why 89 over 90".</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Conclusion</title>
      <p>The fuzzy-possibility approach of building mathematical models based on explicit
and implicit expert knowledge is provided by a significant tool that allows you to
successfully solve problems of a methodological and applied nature in pedagogical
sciences, as in this case - assessing the effectiveness of the examinee`s competences
on various scales. At the same time, it is shown that the interval European scale ECTS
(European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System) allows teachers to assess the
knowledge of students more differentially and explain the given grade more
reasonably. The five-point scale adopted in Russia is ordinal and does not possess such
qualities, which makes it less effective in comparison with ECTS.</p>
      <p>As is shown in the study, fuzzy-possibility models also make it possible to preserve
and replicate the experience of highly qualified experts, for example, for the practical
use of junior teachers. They can be applied to conducting in-depth mathematical
research, as in this example, or using as a knowledge base for building expert systems
of any complexity.</p>
      <p>In addition, it can be stated that the typical models of knowledge representation,
mentioned in the introduction, were supplemented by fuzzy-possibility models in the
form of analytical expressions.</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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