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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Online Parameter Estimation and Optimal Input Design ? ??</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Institute of Flight System Dynamics, Technische Universitat Munchen</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Garching bei Munchen</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="DE">Germany</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <fpage>128</fpage>
      <lpage>139</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>In ight system identi cation, ight test data is used to estimate model parameters. The aircraft is excited during the ight with a set of inputs (maneuvers) to generate the data for parameter estimation. Di erent approaches exist to design the inputs which result in an adequate information content in the acquired data during the ight tests. In most cases, inputs are applied to the aircraft which are designed based on a priori knowledge about the system. In this paper we investigate a method to update the model parameters during the ight and update the inputs onboard the aircraft. This method can increase the achieved parameter accuracy and is expected to reduce the required time for the ight test program, and therefore, also the program cost.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Parameter estimation Optimal input design Optimal control System identi cation</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        In ight vehicle system identi cation, a mathematical model is deducted from
recorded ight data using a series of test maneuvers. If a xed model structure is
assumed, the system identi cation task narrows down to a parameter estimation
problem. It has been shown that the type of inputs applied to an aircraft has a
signi cant in uence on the accuracy of the parameter estimates [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11 ref12">11, 12</xref>
        ]. In this
context, it is desirable to apply inputs to the dynamic system which are expected
to maximize the information content in the ight test data. As such, optimal
inputs can help to reduce the ight test time while resulting in more accurate
parameter estimates. This reduces the overall cost of a system identi cation
project, specially when ight tests are expensive to perform and ight time
is limited on the ight vehicle under investigation (e.g. cruise missiles). This
problem can be formulated as an optimal control problem with a special cost
function. However, an initial model (with initial values for the parameters) is
required to pose and solve the optimal control problem. Since determining the
parameter values in the model is the primary goal of the ight tests and the
subsequent parameter estimation, accurate parameter values often do not exist
when designing the experiments. Di erent approaches have been suggested to
solve this problem, such as a robust approach to design the optimal inputs, in
which the uncertainty of the optimal inputs can be considered in the input design
process [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. In this paper, we investigate the application of online parameter
estimation to adapt the optimal inputs during the runtime of the experiment.
      </p>
      <p>
        Besides ight testing for system identi cation and parameter estimation,
indirect adaptive control is also an important use case for onboard adaption of
optimal input design for parameter estimation. In such cases, the controller is
adjusted based on the change in the system parameters. Therefore, maneuvers
are pursued which lead to more accurate parameter estimates and therefore a
better performing controller. Many previous studies such as [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ] have investigated
the topic of onboard optimal input design in connection with indirect adaptive
control.
      </p>
      <p>
        The problem discussed in this paper can be formulated as a Dual-Mode
Batch-to-Batch Optimization as presented in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. Based on this approach, it is
possible to assess our solution method and quantify the possible loss of
optimality. This is however beyond the scope of the present study and will be investigated
in future work.
2
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Problem De nition</title>
      <p>The problem in parameter estimation is to nd the parameter values in a xed
model structure
^ = ~(Z; u) :
(1)</p>
      <p>In the above equation, ^ is the vector of the parameter estimates, ~ is the
estimator and Z and u are the measured outputs and inputs. In this paper, we
limit our study to linear systems of the following form
(2)
(3)
(4)
x_ = Ax + Bu;
y = Cx + Du;
where x is the vector of the system states, y is the output vector, u is the input
vector and A, B, C and D are the system-, input-, output- and feed-through
matrices. Moreover, v is a zero-mean Gaussian white noise sequence with the
covariance matrix R.</p>
      <p>It can be shown that the Fisher information matrix M provides an
indication about the information content in the gathered ight test data during the
experiment</p>
      <p>
        The inverse of the Fisher information matrix, the Dispersion matrix D =
M 1 is the theoretical lower bound for the covariance matrix of the parameter
estimates if an unbiased estimator is used [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref7">7, 12</xref>
        ]. The square roots of the
diagonal elements of the Dispersion matrix D are called Cramer-Rao bounds and
are the theoretical lower bounds for parameter estimate standard deviations.
If an asymptotically e cient estimator is used, the Cramer-Rao bounds are an
estimate for the parameter estimate standard deviations.
      </p>
      <p>Since the Cramer-Rao bounds and the Dispersion matrix do not depend on
the measurements, an initial model and initial values for parameters can be used
to design inputs that minimize the remaining uncertainty in the parameters. In
this study, we choose to minimize the trace of the Dispersion matrix which is the
sum of the estimate for the parameter variances under consideration of practical
state and input constraints. The optimal control problem (OCP) can be written
as
minimize</p>
      <p>u
subject to
tr M</p>
      <p>1
x_ = f (u; x; ) ;
x 2 [xlb; xub] ;
u 2 [ulb; uub] ;</p>
      <p>= 0;
t 2 [0; T ];
where T is the duration of the maneuver.</p>
      <p>
        Since the estimation of the parameter values is the ultimate goal of the ight
test campaign, no precise values of the parameter estimates are available before
the ight tests. A common approach is to perform ight tests with suboptimal
inputs or optimal inputs based on inaccurate parameters, record the data and
perform o ine parameter estimation. The new parameter values are used to
design new inputs which are used for subsequent ight tests. This becomes a costly
iterative process. Robust optimal control methods have been used in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ] to solve
this uncertain optimal control problem. However, as the aircraft is excited over
time, more information becomes available about the aircraft dynamics which
can then be used to estimate more accurate parameter values. The new
parameter values can be used to adjust the maneuvers onboard the aircraft. To reduce
the required time between the maneuvers, we suggest estimating the parameters
online while new measurements become available.
3
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Solution Method</title>
      <p>
        The solution method applied in this study consists of an Extended Kalman Filter
(EKF) for the online parameter estimation. The approaches for designing the
optimal inputs are based on [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ].
(5)
(6)
      </p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Online Parameter Estimation</title>
        <p>
          Di erent methods exist for online ight vehicle parameter estimation. These
methods allow to update the parameter values onboard the aircraft as new
measurements become available rather than recording the measurements over a time
period and analyzing them in batches. Online parameter estimation methods
can be formulated in time and frequency domain as described in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref12">10, 12</xref>
          ]. In this
study we use an EKF for estimating the states and parameters in realtime. The
implementation in this study is based on [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
          ]. The state vector of the dynamic
system (2) is augmented with the system parameters as follows
xa =
x
        </p>
        <p>:
_ = 0:</p>
        <p>The dynamics of the original system states is governed by (2). Since we
assume the parameters to be constant, their dynamics is governed by</p>
        <p>The governing equations for the augmented system become
with the initial conditions
and
x_a = Aaxa + Bau;</p>
        <p>y = Caxa + Du;
z(ti) = y(ti) + v(ti); i = 1; 2; : : : ; N;</p>
        <p>E[xa(0)] = xa;0;
Ef[xa(0)
xa;0][xa(0)
xa;0]g = P a;0;
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)
(14)
(15)
Aa =</p>
        <p>A( ) 0
0 0 ; Ba =</p>
        <p>B( )
0
; Ca = B( ) 0 ; xa;0 =
x0 ;
where xa;0 is the mean value of the augmented states at the initial time point
and P a;0 is its respective covariance matrix.</p>
        <p>The dynamic system described above is not linear anymore since the new
augmented states which include the parameters are elements of the system matrix A
and are multiplied with the state vector x. Therefore, the equations governing
the nonlinear system (9) can be written as</p>
        <p>x_a = f (xa; u) ;</p>
        <p>y = g(xa) ;
z(ti) = y(ti) + v(ti); i = 1; 2; : : : ; N:
(16)
(17)
(18)</p>
        <p>
          The parameters of the system (2) are now states of the augmented
system (16) and can be estimated via an EKF as described in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
          ]. In addition to
the parameter values, an estimate for the parameter covariance matrix is also
computed by the Kalman lter.
3.2
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>Optimal Input Design</title>
        <p>
          As mentioned above, optimal inputs for parameter estimation are determined by
solving the optimal control problem described in (6). The cost function of the
mentioned problem is non-convex and previous studies in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
          ] have shown that
an initial guess near the optimal point is required to achieve a solution via the
direct method for optimal control (using gradient based optimization). The two
stage optimization method of [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
          ] is applied to solve the optimal control problem
stated in (6). First, a dynamic programming method with a relatively rough
discretization is applied to generate an initial guess for the optimal control and the
respective system response. In a second step the direct method for optimal
control (see [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
          ]) is initialized with the results of the rst step and applied to nd the
nal solution. In this case the original optimal control problem (6) is transcribed
into a nonlinear programming problem and solved with a gradient based solver.
We use an optimal control and parameter estimation toolbox, Falcon.m [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
          ],
developed at the Institute of Flight System Dynamics of TU Munich for the second
optimization stage. The details of the solution methodology and implementation
for designing optimal inputs based on an initial model can be found in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
          ].
3.3
        </p>
        <p>Onboard Adjustment of the Inputs
As stated before, the optimal inputs computed o ine are based on an initial
model with an initial set of parameters. As shown in Fig. 1 an optimal maneuver
is designed o ine with the initial values of the parameters. This maneuver is
injected during the ight. An EKF updates the parameter values during the
optimization as new data becomes available.</p>
        <p>After each maneuver, the gradient based optimization is repeated with the
updated parameter values to adapt the optimal inputs. Thereby, the optimal
input generated with the last set of parameters and the corresponding system
states are used to initialize the optimization with the direct method for optimal
control. Similarly, each EKF run for online parameter estimation is initialized
by previous estimates for the parameters, their covariance matrix and the state
parameter correlations. In the rst parameter estimation run, we initialize the
covariance matrix of the parameters by a diagonal matrix with a large value
Pre-Flight
Initial Model</p>
        <p>Dynamic
Programming
Direct Method
for Optimal</p>
        <p>Control</p>
        <p>In-Flight
Online Parameter</p>
        <p>Estimation
Maneuver
Injection</p>
        <p>Not Met</p>
        <p>Onboard
Maneuver
Adaption
Check
Iteration
Criteria</p>
        <p>Met</p>
        <p>End</p>
        <p>In the above equation, v(ti) is the i-th realization of a zero mean white
Gaussian random process with the following covariance matrix
(here 105) on its diagonal. No correlation is assumed between the parameters
and the states of the system in the initial covariance matrix of the augmented
states (for the rst maneuver). The initial state covariance matrix is considered
as a tuning parameter and should be chosen considering the accuracy of the
aircraft's navigation system and controller.
4</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Numerical Results</title>
      <p>
        A short period model of an aircraft is used to illustrate the proposed method in
this study. The linear model was featured in multiple previous studies such as
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11 ref2 ref6 ref9">2, 6, 9, 11</xref>
        ]. The model is described as
where is the angle of attack, q the pitch rate, and
The output equation is
the elevator de ection.
      </p>
      <p>The measurement equations of the system are:
yymm12 ((ii)) = 01 10
y1(ti) + v1(ti) ; i = 1; 2; : : : ; N;
y2(ti) v2(ti)
_ Z
q_ = M
1
Mq</p>
      <p>Z
q + M</p>
      <p>;
yy12((tt)) = 01 10</p>
      <p>(t)
q(t) :
v(i) =
v1(ti) :
v2(ti)
2:0 0:0
R = 0:0 1:0 :
(19)
(20)
(21)
(22)</p>
      <p>The model parameter values are provided in Table 1. The parameters M ,
Mq, and M are unknown. We design the inputs such that the information
content with respect to these parameter is maximized (see (6)). Other parameters
are considered to be known in this example. Signi cantly di erent initial
parameter values (provided in Table 1) have been used to design the rst optimal
input signal (prior to the experiment). Four parameter estimation and input
design iterations (described in Section 3.3) are performed during the test run-time.
After each maneuver optimization, new parameter values are provided by the
EKF based on virtual measurement data generated from the model described
in (19){(23). A sampling rate of 100 Hz is assumed and the run-time of each
maneuver is 4 s. The discrete time step for the solution of the optimal control
problem (6) with the direct method for optimal control is set to 0:05 s. We
perform 4 iterations of parameter estimation and input optimization during the
ight. The following input and state bounds are considered to design the inputs
(24)
(25)
(26)
(27)
2 [ 12:5 ; 12:5 ] ;</p>
      <p>It can be seen in Fig. 2 that the structure of the optimal inputs remain
roughly consistent as the parameter values get updated. This is in agreement
with using the optimal inputs from the previous set of parameters as an initial
guess for the maneuver optimization in the next step. Figure 3 shows the outputs
of the dynamic system corresponding to the inputs of Fig. 2 at each iteration.
The change of the parameters and the respective estimate for their standard
deviations after each iteration are shown in Fig. 4. It can be seen that the
nal values of the standard deviations in Fig. 4 are consistently lower than the
Cramer-Rao bounds in Table 1. This is due to the fact that the Kalman lter
uses the available data in all of the ve maneuvers, whereas only one maneuver
run has been considered in Table 1. It is also worth mentioning that no process
noise has been considered in this study. The initial state covariance matrix for
each EKF run is set to</p>
      <p>P 0 =
0:2 0:0
0:0 0:1 :</p>
      <p>
        The achieved parameter Cramer-Rao bounds are consistently lower than the
values determined for the same model in previous studies such as [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11 ref5">5, 11</xref>
        ]. This
is mostly due to the higher sampling rate in this study and the fact that only
three (main) model parameters have been selected for parameter estimation and
therefore also optimal input design. The results show that the proposed method
in this study achieves a similar accuracy in the parameter estimates to methods
that assume a more accurate initial guess for designing the optimal inputs.
1
1:5
2:5
3
3:5
4
Two parameter estimation experiments are performed to investigate the
improvement in the accuracy of the parameter estimates if the optimal inputs are
adjusted during the experiment run-time, as suggested in this study. The
parameter estimation experiments are performed using a special implementation of the
Maximum Likelihood estimation method in the output error form as described
in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. The same initial guesses are set for parameters as in Table 1. The results
of the parameter estimation experiment are provided in Table 2. It can be seen
that the optimal input adapted during the runtime of the experiment results in a
signi cant improvement in parameter accuracy. Figure 5 visualizes the absolute
value of the correlation matrices after each of the parameter estimation
experiments. The correlation between the parameters Mq and M is higher when the
adjusted inputs after optimization are in use. This may be contributed by the
fact that only the diagonal elements of the dispersion matrix D are explicitly
considered in the cost function.
0:5
0:5
1
1
1:5
2
      </p>
      <p>2:5
1:5</p>
      <p>2
t [s]
2:5
3
3
3:5
3:5
4
4
In this study we show that adaption of optimal inputs for parameter estimation
during the experiment run-time signi cantly improves the results of a
subsequent parameter estimation. However, this is a very complex process and can be
di cult to successfully implement and apply to a real aircraft. First and
foremost, the application of the proposed method in real-world systems is limited
by the existence of process noise and de ciencies regarding the model structure,
such as unmodeled nonlinearities. Among the implementation aspects, the low
computing power and memory capabilities of common ight control computers
can be considered challenges associated with this approach.</p>
      <p>Furthermore, since the parameter values used to design the optimal inputs are
not accurate, state bounds are not guaranteed to be satis ed during the ight.</p>
      <p>0
0:2
M 0:4
q
M</p>
      <p>1
0:6</p>
      <p>0
0:5
1:5
1:6
1:8</p>
      <p>2
2:2
0
0
M
1
1
1
2
2
2
iter
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
5
5</p>
      <p>0:2</p>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>Estimated Parameter</title>
        <p>True Parameter Value</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-2">
        <title>Parameter Standard Deviation</title>
        <p>Fig. 5. Absolute value of the correlation matrices.</p>
        <p>To address this issue, more conservative state bounds can be considered for the
rst maneuvers and the bounds can be expanded as more accurate parameter
estimates become available.</p>
        <p>The additional e orts required to implement this method can however be
advantageous in use cases where ight test time is very expensive and no good
initial guess for the system model exists. In the case of linear system identi
cation, changing the trim point of the aircraft during the ight also changes the
values of the linear system's matrix coe cients. This method can be applied to
adapt the optimal inputs of the aircraft to the new trim point during the ight.</p>
        <p>
          It might be possible, especially in the case of nonlinear systems, that signi
cantly di erent parameter values result in signi cantly di erent maneuvers and
therefore cause convergence problems in the short time between two maneuvers.
This can be solved by updating the maneuvers online, as new parameter values
become available. Online methods for optimal input design are currently being
investigated by authors. Furthermore, it is planned to test the algorithm and
its capabilities in a real-world experiment using an unmanned aircraft.
Utilization of other online parameter estimation algorithms (e.g. the frequency domain
method as discussed in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
          ]) will also be investigated in future work.
6
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgement</title>
      <p>This work is supported by the German Federal Ministry for Economic A airs
and Energy as part of the LuFo program (grant-ID 20Q1719D).</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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