The article considers methods of construction of information technologies formation and decision-making in terms of risk, to control technogenic systems by using a cognitive model of operator performance as the basis of intellectualization of decision-making processes. Was Substantiated on the basis of on system analysis, decomposition of problem management, for tasks the solution of which is necessary for decision-making. Was built the structural scheme of interaction of intellectual automatic control system with the face of the management (team) and developed by information technology dialogue in the governance structure of the technological system. Was Developed and substantiated the scheme of interaction between the conflict-active systems in terms of redistribution of resources. Was developed and proved the structural system information model management tasks of Glushkov Rabinovich as the basis of the synthesis strategies of conflict resolution. Was conducted the classification of managerial tasks with the use of system analysis and information technology to assess the situation in the system. Was developed the structure of the cognitive-logic formation of management objectives in terms of risk based on the model of an intelligent agent and generator procedures of their solving situational tasks. Were justified logical cognitive procedure and models of decision-making in hierarchical structures when exposed to threats and the cognitive failures of the operator in process control.
An integrated man-machine system, a control structure of an automated system of
personnel training are hierarchical systems that are characterized by the uncertainty of
the structure and dynamics of control objects. Therefore, decision making in such
systems with incomplete data about the problem and the structure of the operation
processes and the effects on them of disturbances with unknown statistical properties
is a complex intellectual procedure, which includes the choice of adequate models of
objects, algorithms for the selection and processing of data and, accordingly, the
formation of approaches to the synthesis procedures of decision-making using
possibility theory and fuzzy set theory in the evaluation of situations based on the
recognition of the state of objects [
Justification of methods of information technologies, system analysis, logical and cognitive models to create a systems management man-made structures in terms of threats. Information technology in the formation and adoption of targets for liquidation emergencies of technogenic systems. 2
The fundamental work [
In [
In the monographs [
In works [
In the monographs [
In [12, 13, 15] are considered object – oriented methods of constructing control programs and the basics of logic decision-making.
In [14, 16, 17] are substantiated methods of the system analysis decision-making process in social, organizational, and technological structures.
In [18-20] are justified decision-making methods based on logical – cognitive models for the system of the principles of creating governance structures.
In [21-24] were conducted, the analysis of models of risks that arise in hierarchical industrial systems. 3
Decision-making under the action of active threats in hierarchical organizational systems is a complex problem characterized as a game component, and clear decisionmaking procedures in the management mode of operation of technological processes (TP) and organizational-administrative structures (OAS), both in normal and in extreme conditions attacks by type of information and cognitive failures managers.
Decomposition of the problem of managerial decision-making under conditions of risk validity threats can be divided into a set of tasks: • the creation of new intellectual systems of management of processes of functioning of Autonomous control systems (ACS) TP and OAS; • diagnostic modes of operation an existing automated control systems, optimization and adaptation under the action of disturbances and threats, and change their aim orientation; • synthesis of non-conflict games strategies decision making on the markets of resources and products when choosing coordination methods of resolving problem situations and adapt the structure; • reconstruction and modernization of corporate management systems which are used in the coordinating of strategic and local problem solving.
To build appropriate strategies and synthesis architecture of ACS it is necessary to
conduct a conceptual analysis design tool and evaluate the cognitive characteristics of
operators [
Let’s give a classification of the intelligent information systems (IIS) [
Let’s consider the classes of problems, the solution of which ensures the reliable operation of man-made systems under active threats.
The problem and the types of tasks that can perform information and intelligent system
(IIS) [
The task, in the general case, is the uncertainty that motivates the purposeful action of an intelligent system to achieve a particular goal at the moment time interval and its effective solution based on proven strategies, methods, algorithms and procedures, and cognitive methods.
The goal in this system is encoded in decoupling system (ISP – intelligent solver of problems). Then it acts as a description of the requirements for the state of the system in which the generated target is focmed. Intelligent system (IRZ) is characterized by the algorithm of functioning and the procedure of search strategies for solving problems, tasks and situations based on the given integer orientation.
The important role of information technologies for creating methods and procedures for solving problems arising in the design of systems in their research and publishing technological and organizational systems, were pointed out in writings, written by V. M. Glushkov [8].
Justifying their automation based on the use of informational models of dialogue
mode, logical inference, methods of generating hypotheses, and making decisions, he
first defined the role of the intellectualization of the management schemes procedures
for the synthesis of algorithms for the solution of design problems. It does not take
account of cognitive, but only the energy aspects of the behavior of the operator in
assessing the situation the operator, which is stored in the system under action of
interference and threats of the active type (Fig. 2).
Glushkov V. M. introduced the concept of forming and decoupling system, which can
be interpreted as the IA for the solution of problem situations [
Let’s consider the informative and intellectual characteristics of situational tasks and ways of their classification in the relation to the formation of strategies: • Sit [M Ai ] → ∃Alg Aj ( RZ j ) – the situation for which there is a reference algorithm for solving the problem ESі, full information support; • Sit IALAj → ∃Alg Aij ( RZi ) – a situation where the person acting IA is interested in solving the problem RZi and has a procedure, a set of algorithms Aij for its solution and the corresponding resource; • Sit −
− M Aj , IALAj – when neither the ES expert system nor the IA has algorithms for solving problems that arise in the process of information and resource conflicts or cognitive overload of the operator in decision-making.
Accordingly, were selected classes of tasks, which developed algorithms and strategies for solving problem situations in an integrated control system: 1. KLZj ( IALj ⊗ M Aj ) – tasks that a person solves with the help of an expert solving system, using (∃Alg RZj ( Пк)) – based programs ПК;
− 2. KLZj IALj ⊗ М Aj – tasks for which it is necessary to create strategies, algorithms, pro grams, that is their generation with an incomplete information database and knowledge; 3. KLZj ( IALj ⊗ M Aj ) – tasks of search of the algorithm in the base of programs of the intellectual expert for the decision of situational problems; 4. KLZj ( IALj ⊗ M Ak km=1 ) – task synthesis algorithm for solving problems and synthesis procedure program for solving problem situations in PDO; 5. KLZi (¬∃Alg RZi ) – a class of tasks for which there are currently no solution algorithms, which, accordingly, determines the problem situation of strategic management, taking into account threats and cognitive disruptions. Informative types of problems due to their content will be such procedural and informational signs of information character: • tasks are well marked, if there are algorithms and tools to verify the solution in the corresponding problem-oriented knowledge database; • the tasks are poorly represented, if at IA no means of checking the solutions; • non-dialogue tasks – there is a finished algorithm of a sequence of actions that leads to goals-based action plans according to the chosen strategy; • dialogue tasks – the algorithm of solution is formed in the process of solving problems based on the case data and expert support; • non-search task, if the information is incorporated in the condition that the knowledge base of IA is sufficient to create the procedure, the solution algorithm (informational completeness); • search task requires additional information from external intelligent systems that have structured information and the logical-cognitive basis.
Interaction intelligent systems (dialogue) in the process of problem solving is based on the following procedures and concepts and the game system (threats): • are clarified the conditions of the problem-based search procedure additional properties of the object in the subject-oriented knowledge; • are determined the presentation of data and results for the formation of the image of the situation in terms of actions of attacks and resource disturbances; • accounting and analysis limitations that characterize the dynamics and structure of an object and software systems in the planning of action; • systematization of existing data, their intellectual development and the formation of new knowledge in the formation of the expert decisions; • conclusion about the possibility of solving the problem existing methods and tools based on the generation of scenarios in modeling system behavior, given the cognitive abilities of the operator; • the synthesis of a plan of solving the problem and testing it from achieving the goal according to constructive policies.
Full representation problems in the actual and target state space for APCS (Fig. 5) includes: • structure of ( Rn × Tm) state space ( R, T ) is the continuum of the object and aggregates; • all possible states of the system in normal and limit modes; • the initial state of the object relative to the target; • tasks class of operators Aj of transitions from one state to another based on strategies {∃Strat ( DCi / Ui, Ai /im =AiUi)Zi 1 )( → Zi+1 /τ i ∈Tm} with {Uij} , and counts transitions {gi / Tm} ; • • the target state of the control object with the marking lines limit state ( L+A, L+n Lmin ) . PDO IMS APCS
Dij {Uij}
Z0 g2 g1
Uij
Ai g3
L2u LA+
Ln+ L3u
Zc Vci Lnu Lmin
Tm
t0
t1
t2
t3
t4
t5
t6
The procedure of finding a solution in state space is to construct a sequence of action
operators Аі running Uij that transforms the initial state in the target (plan the route
search algorithm) [
The method of decomposition of the task. Such a representation is to split the problem into subtasks that have a solution. Based on the local decision is build the total solution in the form of combinations of logical rules over graphs of events ∃{∏iR Tm}; {∏iR Cgi : HiZt → Vci} .
Based on the structure of the split tasks (Fig. 6) is built a set of graph reduction tasks under the action of factors on the state of the system FA ≡ {B,C, D E, F ,G, H , I} .
E
F KZi
Ui G H I
A
G E
B
F
C
H
D
I (V) (&) Accordingly, to the action of in fluencing factors is selected a plan of operations according to the strategy of goal achievement and prevention of the perturbation taking into account indicators of the signs of the degree of influence (FAi).
At every step the count action according to the chosen strategy and plan of action, is evaluated the situation at the time ti ∈τ m , and are formed in the course of control actions on the object man-made system.
Then we have hypotheses about the existence of a procedure for solving the problem according to the strategy that generated the intelligent agent: H1∃PRZ1 ( E, F ) ⇒ PRZ ( B)
H2 ∃PRZ2 (G ) ⇒ PRZ (C ) ⇒ (∃PRZ ( PSitA) ⇒ (∃StratRPSitA)) , where PRZi – the H3∃PRZ3 ( H , I ) ⇒ PRZ ( D) procedure of solving problem tasks selected in the current information base describing situations in time ti ∈τ mi .
Given the above we can write a system of conditions for the decomposition of the procedures in the rules and algorithms as inference schemes: ( PRZ ( E ) ∧ PRZ ( F )) ⇒ PRZ ( В) PRZ (G) ⇒ PRZ (С ) ⇒ V3 PRZ ( В,С, D) А .
i=1
PRZ ( Н ) ∧ PRZ ( I ) ⇒ PRZ ( D) System conditions determines the logical structure of the decision making process without regard to the cognitive organization of knowledge preteentranny face – ІАі.
Representation of a synthesis task of strategic management in the form of logical – lingua rules of inference
The logical-mathematical problem can be formulated as theorems that need to be proved (puzzles, games, tasks, decision-making, action planning, synthesis strategies).
Task structure is formed in the form of a block diagram (Fig. 7) cognitive logic of the shaper management tasks. The strategy of solving problem tasks in the form of the theorem is based on the basis of the composition of the basic axioms (Fig. 8) in the structure of the subject-oriented field of knowledge (SOFK) then have the following logico – linguistic exercise: ∃N {LAin =∃N 1}; {LΠi in =∃{StratUij 1}; Ci} , to assess the situation, and it is possible to build a logical – linguistic expressions relative to the whole rules-oriented conclusions: ∃{StratUij Ci} ⇒ LΠi {i⊗=1 Ai} : ∃g ( Z0 → Z gi )Tm .
R
Accordingly, for the logical rules LΠi – composition axioms ensure the construction of the graph of the route of achieving the goal with a clear description of a problem situation.
The scheme of the intelligent generator of the solver procedures in the DSS has a hierarchical structure that includes the following control levels (Fig. 8): • PDO – potentially dangerous object man-made system; • IMS – information-measuring system of the selection status data of the object; • АІА – active intelligent agent staging situational problems of managerial decisionmaking in the context of threats to the management; • SGPSP – system generation procedures for solving problems, which is a part of the strategic DSS intelligent agent; • IGPR – the intelligent generator of procedures for solving an integer-oriented management tasks in the context of threats; • PGAD – procedural generator active control actions in the action range of threats. axioms; BIS — base of images of situations; BСK — base of conscious knowledge Heuristic methods of generating strategies to address managerial problems in technogenic systems in the conditions of active threats and the risks of cognitive failure.
For tasks with a hierarchical structure it is necessary to combine all of the above methods. The goal is set in the form: «to apply Аі to the situation Sit(tj│ПСі)». It reflects some of the differences between the reference terms of the behavior and the situation in the studied system.
From this we can highlight the following problem of generating control strategies: • problem transformation and believability of images of situations with the aim of obtaining deviation of the system from the target region; • the problem of evaluating the images of situations in the state space and the target space of the control system in terms of the resource information threats; • the problem of constructing the structure of the space of states of potentially hazardous facilities and spragan him a target structure; • the problem of the classification of the situations and display it in the ACS; • synthesis of criteria for selection of methods for solving problems of crisis of the state and selection of indicators of information and cognitive failure management process; • normalization of classes of signs for construction status indicators; • synthesis strategies for the construction of decision rules to achieve the goal; • the content knowledge cognitive structures (IA – operator) and data and knowledge bases and operational control system.
Model solver of problems in integrated intelligent control systems under the action of information attacks and disturbances.
Intellectual problem solver is a system that perceives a formalized description of the problem, from the subject area in which the problem situation arises, and based on this description in accordance with the rules develops a plan for its solution.
The scheme of stages of system analysis and procedures of formation of target
decisions [
P2) comparison of the current situation with the reference target based on the decision-making procedure and rules and schemes of conclusions – ΠR in accordance with the target of the Sit j (ПS) ⇔ SitE (ΠS / Ci) → End ΠR
Sit j (ΠS ) ⇔ SitE (ΠS / Ci) ⇒ SitK (ΠS ) ⇒ [] ⇔ Sitm (ΠS ) ≠ SitE (ΠS / Ci) , Sit (ΠS / Ci) – the situation in the problem system relatively to the target state; scenario: where
P3) the choice of rules ΠRj which must be used by the operator to reduce the difference between the current and reference image;
P4) consistently apply a set of rules until the similarity of the current and target image; Р5) back to П1 when reaching the target area due to the compensation information, resource, and cognitive failures in the course of the management process.
Types of management tasks that determine the strategies to achieve the goal of the man-made system in the face of threats and resource failures: (1) ΠZ1 : T ( A, B),∃ΠR (T ) A → B – transfer of a situation A to a situation В on the basis of the operator T in a rule ΠR (T ) ; (2) ΠZ2 : C ( D,O, A, B),∃ΠR ( D,O)SitA di→ SitB – transfer of a situation A to a situation B by means of the operator with the minimum difference d i∈ D ; (3) ΠZ3 : R (OI , A),∃ΠR (OI / A);OI Sit A → Icon X – apply the operator action OI to the situation A and form a new image Icon X of the situation.
These schemes can be applied to solving a class of problems irrespective of the subject area. At the preliminary stage it is necessary to fix the list of tasks as possible differences between the current and desired situation, to fix the list of operators that reconcile these differences.
The relationship of system and information tasks in the process of solving the problem of decision-making in general purposeful management of man-made structure.
Let us have: S = Sit (t0 ) – the initial situation; Q = Sit (Q / Tm) – desirable (target), which are determined by the parameters in the state spaces and the target: d 6. If ∃dT ∈ D, dT < d minT ( S,Q)ΠR (T ) IconS ≡ IconQ , then the problem is solved.
7. If ∃dT ∈ D,(dT > d min )( IconS ≠ IconQ) , then move on to the next rule, which can reduce the difference images.
If the condition of the existence of strategies to of the goals is achieved then you can generate a rule:
ΠR C ( D,O, A, B) : ∃Oi ⊂ O,Oi : (d → d m∗in ≤ dmin ) ⇒ di ΠR ( D,Oi ) IconS ≡ IconQ End {∃Strat (U Ci ),∃{ΠR}} ⇒
ΠR ( D,Oi )( IconS ≠ IconQ) ΠR (O, S ) performed, then move on to the next rule. This rule establishes the conditions {Hi} ⊂ H under which the operator {Oj} ⊂ O can be applied to a situation S for which we have the following situation as: If 3.2. Т ( S*,Q)∃ΠR (T )( S → S* → Q / H ) → [End ] 3.3. T ( S*,Q)¬∃ΠR (T / H )( S → S m → Q) ⇒ , (then there are two new tasks) – which can be represented as: T ( S, H ),∃ΠR (Tn )( S → H ) ; T ( H ,Q),∃ΠR (Tm )( H → Q) .
An intelligent system as a solution to problems must have common intelligent procedures suitable for solving a wide range of problems. Otherwise, it is necessary to move to the logical-cognitive models of IA and DSS.
These procedures in the process of their application should form new knowledge based on the existing knowledge base, new algorithms for solving specific problems , is performed or not based on the knowledge of analysis of algorithms and rules of goal-oriented decisionmaking and activation of cognitive structures of IA.
The problem of decision making in situations of threats
Models of predicate logic, as the basis for the formation of meaningful statements in making situational decisions to control the operator are basic in the construction of rules and procedures of executive actions.
The logical models determine the truth of the claims regardless of the variables, for each class of concepts dedicated on the grounds (θ F → KLFA (θ )) .
We give basic structural logical laws which are the basis of the information schemes and structures to build decision-making rules when evaluating the content of the claims in the chains and scenarios in the cognitive structures of the person and are used in management procedures: • affirmation of truth with the denial: ∀x F ( x)∨ ~ F ( x) ; • the law of the third exception in relation to R : ∀x∀y R ( x, y )∨ ~ R ( x, y ) ; • the law of neutrality statement: ∀x F ( x) → G ( x) ; • the law of contradiction of the statement: ∃x F ( x) ∧ ~ F ( x) ; • the law of equivalence of statements for predicates:
∀x ∈ A : ( F ( x) → G ( x) ↔ ~ F ( x) ∨ G ( x)) ; • the law of equivalence of relations for sets х ∈ Х , у ∈У :
∀( x, y ) ∈ A : R ( x, y ) → S ( x, y ) ↔ ~ R ( x, y ) ∨ S ( x, y ) ; ∀( x, y ) ∈ A : ∀x∀y{R ( x, y ) → S ( x, y ) ↔ ~ R ( x, y ) ∨ S ( x, y )} ; • the law of contradiction of statements: ∃x F ( x) ∧ ~ F ( x) ∧ ∀xG ( x) ; • the law of imitation of the properties of elements on the set [ Х → У ] : ∀x F ( x) → F ( y ), ( x, y ) ∈ A; F ( y ) → ∃xF ( x); ∀x F ( x) → ∃xF ( x) .
∀x the course of events: ΠRv : On the basis of the transitivity of the implication, a procedure of quantified inference about the situation is built, which through the sensory system in the form of an imaginary information image, reflects in the operative conscious memory scenarios of F ( x) → F ( y )
∀x ∈ A; A ≠ ∅.
F ( y ) → ∃xF ( x) ∀x F ( x) → ∃xF ( x) Analysis of the rules of making goal-oriented decisions
The rules in the separating procedures that distinguish the properties of F ,G for the elements of the concept of the class KLFA,G (θ i ) are given in the form of [11, 15, 17] meaningful statements, the meaning of which differs at the cognitive level in order to identify failures in decision chains which is the basis for assessing the inconsistency of the links in the decision tree. Situational rules for deriving the logic of predicates in the synthesis of decisionmaking procedures based on graphs and output trees
As from a general significant implications and as well as from the relationships of equivalence rules can be output. Let’s consider the following rules that ensure the differentiation of situations [9, 10, 12]:
∀x F ( x) П1V: ∀x F ( x) → F ( y) ↔ – the attribute for each element corresponds to
F ( y) existence of at least one element x with this feature.
Let’s consider the relationship of general statements with statements related to the quantifiers of existence when comparing the reference and real images of situations in the conscious cognitive structure of the operator (intellectual agent – management), which is characterized by the ability to [8, 11]: 1) intelligent data processing; 2) the logic of thinking in decision making; 3) generation of ideas for solving situations in conditions of risk; 4) performing cognitive operations management; 5) search for nonstandard methods of finding a way out of risk. П1R: П3R: ∀x F ( x) ∀x F ( x) ~ ∃x ~ F ( x) ∃x F ( x) ∃x F ( x) ~ ∀x ~ F ( x)
~ ∃x ~ F ( x) ~ ∀x F ( x) ↔ ~ ∃x ~ F ( x) ; П2R: ~ ∀x F ( x) ∀x F ( x) ∃x ~ F ( x)
~ ∃x ~ F ( x) ↔ ~ ∃x ~ F ( x) ;
~ ∀x F ( x) ~ ∀x ~ F ( x) ~ ∃x F ( x) ↔ ~ ∀x ~ F ( x) ; П4R: ~ ∃x F ( x) ∃x F ( x) ∀x ~ F ( x)
∀x ~ F ( x) ↔ ∀x ~ F ( x) .
~ ∃x F ( x) Synthesis of the structural scheme for construction of logical rules and procedures of formation of target decisions by the intelligent agent the elements of the whole class;
F ( y) П2V: F ( y) → ∃xF ( x) ↔ ∃x F ( x)
– feature F , characteristic of y , indicates the
According to these rules we will construct the structural scheme of models of a conclusion which are an information basis of process of acceptance of the purposeful decisions on the basis of construction of situational trees (fig. 9).
The block diagram includes the following intelligent structures [19-21]: • model of the decision-making processor as an intelligent local agent that responds to influencing factors {Fi} ; • PMD model as a managing intelligent agent with a given management strategy and a base of inference rules.
The scheme has two structural blocks that reflect the model of interaction of the active agent with the object according to the target task in the appropriate sequence. 1. Block formation of action includes (informational aspect): • selection of data about the state of the object; • the classification of signs at the facility; • rules of inference about the state of the object, based on the assessment of the situation in connection characteristics; • making decisions to achieve goals based on the verification of the generated hypotheses about the way to achieve the goal. 8. Block intelligent agent (as an individual decision maker's conception of M. Zgurovskyi [14]), which includes the logical-informational components of a decision-making procedure and its intelligent services: data and knowledge bases, generators strategies and neural processors.
DSZ Ci, U
ZV
Factors Fi Perturbation generator Fi Model SitDS
(ti│x) Database x(tiξ iUi )
Object control logic
SitDS (ti│x) Classifier
M (Ci ∈ ΠC)
Model
SitDS ∏V ( Fi
Rules output ↑Ui ∏ R Sit j Strat (U│Ci)
Decision rules
Processor model decision making Forecast of consequences
PMD ПiR (Siti → Ui ) ПV : ( Fr → SitDS )
Rules of logical inference
Decision converter
in action Ui → Ki → di
Basic models of decision-making strategies Models of objects, factors, threats
DBDS
Strategies Strat U Ci
Test target tasks Fundamental management theories and decision logic
Application of rules ΠV and ΠR intelligent agent (IA): Sit — operative situation; Fi — factors of influence; MA — executive mechanism actuator; PMD – the person who makes the decision; DBDS — database management system; ES — executive system Accordingly, the procedure of testing hypotheses, in making decisions and the assessment of the dynamic images of the situations are divided into two classes: (i) ( KL − Ci ) – about the degree of inclusion of the system in the target area: (ii) H1C : Z (t,ui ,ξ i ) ∈V (Ci / ΠCs ) ⇒ [Re al Ci ] ,
H2C : Z (t,u j ,ξ j ) ∉V (Ci / ΠCs ) ⇒ [Re al Ci ] ; (iii) ( RL∆ ( Ik )) – on the dynamic difference of the trajectory to the target based on the
metric H1i : ∆ri ≥ ∆CT (∀t ∈ Tmer ) ⇒ , ∆r = Z (t,ui ,ξ i ) − Zl (t,Tmer ) ≥ 0 as for ∆ :
c ⇒ (ui > 0),ui ∈ KLStratCi ; di Ki ↑ Ui MA Decision
risk assessment Shaper Iε (U )
> Hi : Iε < → IDS Correction
Strat U Stress
ES H2 j : ∆rj < ∆CT (∀τ ∈Tj ⊂ Tmer ) ⇒ (u j =0) . Accordingly, the effectiveness of management by cost functionals defined based on hypotheses of management strategies:
H1k : ( Ik > Il ) ⇒ opt Strat (ui / Ci ) ; H2k : ( Ik < Il ) ⇒
⇒ Koord Strat (ui / Ci ) , where ( H1c , H 2c ) – clearly the hypotheses regarding the status parameter – Z , control – ui, of the perturbation ξ ; V (Ci / ΠCs ) – the target area in the space of the system; KLStratCi – the class of target strategies; ∆r – traktorne differences; ( Ik , Il ) – the functional quality; opt [ ] – optimization strategies; koord [ ] – coordination of local management strategies.
Synthesis strategies for the formation of the target strategies is based on the information procedures that describe the active interaction (PI↔AI) and operations are performed [13]: • active sensing of the object and selection, identification of data, their estimation to rank the values of the status parameter; • the download procedure of state space in the target description field the location of the target and its parameterization based on interval ranked breakdown which covers it; • the procedure of forming the image of the dynamic situation and the operation of classification with the position of the target based on the rules of testing of hypotheses; • the strategy to achieve the objective, which includes: building the trajectory of the object to the target through the block covering (coordinates); procedures for the selection of alternatives in relation goal orientation, coordinstion of the system of alternatives with a set of control commands; • procedures for making decisions based on the classification of situations according to the procedure of testing hypotheses.
Then the scheme of formation of solutions has the form of logic – information of the chains and depends on the cognitive and intellectual level of the operating personnel. 4
On the basis of system analysis of problems of management involving human subjects are considered the cognitive – informational factors that are important for decisionmaking [14, 17, 18]. The structure factors of the ability to make decisions includes the following component and system (Fig. 10) and tables.
Fig. 10. Block diagram of the counter factors of influence on the SCADA system, which create a situation of risk: DRi — sources of resources; {FАІ } — factors of active influence; Fi — information factors; Co — control object; Zk — area of control of object; IMS — information measuring system; GPS — generator of probing signals; {Ui} — control actions; (Сiz ) — target tas; EM — the executive mechanism Accordingly we will construct tables (1, 2), which characterize the ability of the operator to the managerial decision-making. Expert evaluation of the cognitive component (CFi, PRі ) of decision-making by the manager. information operations 0,6-0,95 0,50-0,95 a cognitive model of the whole based thinking 0,5-0,95 0,50-0,95 analytical data analysis 0,15-0,95 0,4-0,95 the logic of thinking, KIA 0,10-0,95 0,25-0,90 algorithmization of cognitive processes 0,15-0,85 0,40-0,55 cognitive analysis of the nature of the situational challenges 0,14-0,90 0,4-0,85 tcioognnoitfivtaeskpsrocedures for the formation of schemes for solu- 0,25-0,90 0,60-0,95 identification of information entities to problems 0,30-0,90 0,60-0,95 the use of information technology to solve problems 0,30-0,85 0,40-0,90 cognitive processing of data of KIA obtained from the object 0,4-0,90 0,40-0,90 Cognitive coefficients of expert assessment of intellectual abilities are determined on the basis of test data processing: {PRi in=1} , {∀PRі ∈[0,5 −1,0]} ; {KCi іь=1} , {∀KCi ∈[0,7 − 1,0]} – accordingly determine the quality of decision-making operator in terms of threats.
Accordingly, we have assessments of the quality of decision-making for the
→ [
→ [0,8 − 1, 0] → [ Norma]
The assessment of the level of risk is based on the following models that characterize the management decision-making processes of the IA operator: 1. Probabilistic model of risk at the moment (t ∈Tnk ) : Risk (tі ∈Tnk ) =Lpi {Рі / Сі}ti → → {Рі+1 / Сin}ti+1 → Alarm where Рі – the probability of wrong decisions that lead to consequences – failure of the target task in the emergency area. 9. Unprofitable risk assessment model when assessing an emergency situation [16, 21]: Risk ( Р / Сui ) → ∅ → Hij : Сі ∈ СV → (α r → 0) . Determines the Hi2 : Сі ∉ Сv → (α r → 1) maximum loss when leaving the target control area (Cv). 10. Risk assessment based on the decision tree in the management of threats to the maximum load of energy-intensive units of the man-made system. 11. Methods of payment of loss functions for structure, resources, products [22-24]. 12. To assess the level of risks in the face of threats and management failures used hypothesis testing procedures in the form of: H1 : ∀x P ( x) ⇒ Q ( x) , P ( x) ≡ Z j ∈ Bi ; H 2 : ∀x Q ( x) ⇒ R ( x) , Q ( x) ≡ Z j+1 ∈ B j+1 . Then the condition for achieving the target state is set:
Ci : ∀x P ( x) ⇒ R ( x) , traR ( x) ≡ ≡ ( Z j → Z j +1 → Z j +2 ) , R ( x) ≡ Z j +2 ∈ Bc . These chains can be locked in stress conditions, which leads to the failure of management actions and emergencies. Fig. 11. Risk assessment based on the decision tree: PVi — procedure of choice, {Strі} — strategy selection and control of action 5
Was considered a problem of logical justification of the rules of decision-making in intelligent systems, reasonably scheme of dialogue and making situational decisions as to the basis of synthesis strategies for acceptable behavior of a person (active agent). It is shown that in a state of stupor chain deployment process clearer logical conclusion and evaluation of the scenario can be blocked, leading to loss of control SAI at a certain terminal time.
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