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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Using the pro le of publishers to predict barriers across news articles</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Jozef Stefan Institute</institution>
          ,
          <country country="SI">Slovenia</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Slovenia, Jamova cesta 39</addr-line>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Detection of news propagation barriers, being economical, cultural, political, time zonal, or geographical, is still an open research issue. We present an approach to barrier detection in news spreading by utilizing Wikipedia-concepts and metadata associated with each barrier. Solving this problem can not only convey the information about the coverage of an event but it can also show whether an event has been able to cross a speci c barrier or not. Experimental results on IPoNews dataset (dataset for information spreading over the news) reveals that simple classi cation models are able to detect barriers with high accuracy. We believe that our approach can serve to provide useful insights which pave the way for the future development of a system for predicting information spreading barriers over the news.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>news propagation</kwd>
        <kwd>news spreading barriers</kwd>
        <kwd>cultural barrier</kwd>
        <kwd>economical barriers</kwd>
        <kwd>geographical barrier</kwd>
        <kwd>political barrier</kwd>
        <kwd>time zone barrier</kwd>
        <kwd>classi cation methods</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        The phenomenon of event-centric news spreading due to globalization has been
exposed internationally [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]. International events capture attention from all
corners of the world. News agencies play their part to bring our attentions on some
events and not on others. Varying nature of living styles, cultures, economic
conditions, time zone, and geographical juxtaposition of countries present a signi
cant role in process of publishing news related to di erent events [3, 6, 13, 19{21].
For example, publishing about sports events could be dependent on culture,
epidemic events can reach rstly to neighboring countries due to geographic
proximity and, news on a luxury product may be relevant for economically strong
countries due to demand of wealthy people. We represent this di erentiation
along with di erent barriers. These barriers include but are not limited to 1)
Economic Barrier, 2) Cultural Barrier, 3) Political Barrier, 4) Geographical
Barrier, and 5) Time Zone Barrier. Detection of the overpass of these barriers does
Copyright © 2021 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative
Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
not only tell us the area where the broadcasting of an event reached, but it also
shows us events-location relation as countries have di erent culture, economic
conditions, geographical placement on the globe, political point of view, and
time zone. Following are the de nitions of news crossing these barriers:
Cultural Barrier. If we identify the coverage of speci c event-centric news by
publishers that are surrounded by di erent cultures, then we can say that the
news related to the event crossed cultural barriers.
      </p>
      <p>Political Barrier. If news about a speci c event is disseminated from publishers
having di erent political alignment, we can say that the news related to that
event crossed the political barrier.</p>
      <p>Geographical Barrier. We say that some news related to a speci c event
overpasses geographical barriers if that event gets attention by publishers of
countries located in di erent geographical regions.</p>
      <p>Time Zone Barrier. We can claim that event-centric news has crossed the
time zone barrier if it has been published by publishers located in di erent time
zones.</p>
      <p>Economic Barrier. It can be asserted that a piece of event-centric news has
crossed economic barriers if it is published in countries having di erent economic
conditions.</p>
      <p>
        In this paper, we propose a methodology for detection of di erent barriers
during information propagation in form of news that utilize data (IPoNews) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
        ]
related to three contrasting events (earthquake, Global warming, and FIFA world
cup) in di erent domains (natural disasters, climate changes, and sports) in 5
di erent languages: English, Slovene, Portuguese, German, and Spanish.
1.1
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Contributions</title>
      <p>Following are the main scienti c contributions of this paper:
{ A novel methodology for barrier detection in news spreading.
{ Experimental comparison of several simple classi cation models that can
serve as a baseline.
1.2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Problem Statement</title>
      <p>Observing the spreading of news on a particular event over time, we want to
predict whether a barrier (cultural, political, geographical, time zone,
economical) is likely to hamper information while information propagates over the news
(binary classi cation).
2</p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>RELATED</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>WORK</title>
        <p>
          Multiple barriers come across event-centric news speci cally when the news is
concerned about international or national events. According to news ow
theories, multiple determinants impact international news spreading. The economic
power of a country is one of the factors that in uence news spreading. Moreover,
economic variations has di erent in uence for di erent events (e.g. protests,
conicts, disasters) [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
          ]. The magnitude of economic interactivity between countries
can also impact the news ow [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">21</xref>
          ]. Economic growth/income level shows the
economic condition of a country. Multiple organizations are working on generating
prosperity and welfare index on yearly basis. Among them, \The Legatum
Prosperity Index" and \Human Development Index" are popular 1, 2. Geographical
representation of entities and events has been utilized extensively in the past
to detect local, global, and critical events [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13 ref19 ref20 ref3">3, 13, 19, 20</xref>
          ]. It has been said that
countries with close distance share culture and language up to a certain extent
which can further unfold interesting facts about shared tendencies in
information spreading [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15 ref16">15, 16</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          News agencies tend to follow the national context in which journalists
operate. One of the related examples is the SARS epidemic study which found
that cross-national contextual values such as political and economic situations
impact the news selection [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ]. It will be true to say that fake news is produced
based on many factors and it is surrounded by a paramount factor that is
political e ect [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
          ]. A great amount of work regarding fake news dwells on di erent
strategies and few studies considered political alignment to have a compelling
e ect on news spreading [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref4">4, 12</xref>
          ]. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
          ] strongly proved it to be a major strategy
in news agencies to control the news and change accordingly due to the
involvement of journalists and political actors. Countries that share common culture
are expected to have heavier news ow about between them reporting on similar
events [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">21</xref>
          ]. Many quantitative studies found demographic, psychological,
sociocultural, source, system, and content-related aspects [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
          ]. Many models have tried
to explain cultural di erences between societies. Hofstede's national culture
dimensions (HNCD) has been widely used and cited in di erent disciplines [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7 ref9">7, 9</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          News classi cation for di erent kinds of problems is a well-known topic since
the past and features used to classify varies depending upon the problem. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
          ]
used news content and user pro le to classify the news whether it is fake or
not. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
          ] calculated TF-IDF score and Word2Vec score of most frequent words
and used them as features to classify into one of the ve categories (state,
economy, entertainment, international, and sports). Similarly, [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
          ] performed
partof-speech (POS) tagging at sentences level and used them as features, and built
supervised learning classi ers to classify news articles based on their location.
Mostly classi er trained to utilize popular supervised learning methods such as
Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes, k-Nearest
Neighbour (kNN), and Decision Tree. In this work, we used the pro le of each barrier
for each news publisher (see section 3.5) and most frequent 300 Wikipedia
concepts from the dataset that appeared in the list of news articles related to three
contrasting events (earthquake, Global Warming, and FIFA world cup). We also
1 http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi
2 https://www.prosperity.com/
compared the results of popular classi ers such as SVM, Random Forest,
Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, and kNN (see Section 5.4).
3
3.1
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-3">
        <title>DATA DESCRIPTION</title>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Dataset</title>
      <p>
        We utilized dataset "A dataset for information spreading over the news (IPoNews)"
that consists of pairs of news articles that were labeled based on the level of their
similarity, as described in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
        ]. This dataset was collected from Event Registry,
a platform that identi es events by collecting related articles written in di
erent languages from tens of thousands of news sources [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. The similarity score
among cross-lingual news articles was calculated using concept-based
similarity employing Wiki er service3. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
        ] describes the criteria when information is
considered to be propagated. Statistics of the data set are shown in table 3.
      </p>
      <p>The dataset contains a list of pairs of news articles annotated with one of
the labels such as "information-Propagated", "Unsure", or
"Information-NotPropagated" (see Table 2). The information is considered to be propagated if the
cosine similarity score of the two articles in the pair is above a prede ned
threshold ( 0.7 for Information-Propagated, &lt; 0.4 for Information-not-Propagated,
otherwise Unsure). We restructured the original dataset to include only
examples labeled as spreading information. In this way, we have pair of news articles
where we observe information spreading from one to the other. Furthermore, for
each example, instead of having a pair of articles, we kept only the article that
was published earlier. In this way, each example contains an article that spreads
information.
3 http://wiki er.org/info.html, https://github.com/abdulsittar/IPoNews</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Statistics after restructuring the data</title>
      <p>The original dataset describes in Section 3 contains pairs of articles along with
the information on whether there was the propagation of information related to a
speci c event or not. We used only examples labeled as propagating information
4. Based on the available metadata for articles, we ignored articles that do not
have metadata information in our database (see Section 3.4). Table 3 shows the
statistics for each barrier after ltering the original dataset.
As our dataset already mention (see Section 3) if information in news is
spreading from an article to another based on Wikipedia-concepts, we utilized the
most frequent (top 300) Wikipedia-concepts as features. Figure 1 portrays these
Wikipedia-concepts for all three events in form of word clouds.
Barriers knowledge refers to a database that contains metadata about each
barrier. Figure 3 shows schema of database and Table 4 presents barriers along with
their characteristics. Each barrier depends on one main information that is the
country name of the headquarter of the news publishers. Since the utilized data
4 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3950064
set already contains headquarter of publishers therefore we fetched the
country associated with headquarters. For economical barrier, we fetched economical
pro le for each country using \"The Legatum Prosperity Index"" 5. Cultural
di erences among di erent regions were collected using Hofstede's national
culture dimensions (HNCD). For time zone and geographical barrier, we stored
general UTC-o set, latitude, and longitude. For political barrier we are using
the political alignment of the newspaper/magazine that we determined based on
Wikipedia infobox at their Wikipedia page. For instance, for Austrian
newspaper "Der Standard" we nd social liberalism as political alignment (See Figure
2), for British newspaper "Daily Mail" we nd right-wing as political alignment,
for German "Stern" magazine there is no information in its Wikipedia infobox
on the political alignment thus we label political alignment as unknown.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Features for Individual Barrier</title>
      <p>We represented each barrier with a speci c pro le containing a list of features.
Table 4 depicts the list of features for each barrier. Economic and cultural
barriers consist of a vector of length 11 and 6 features whereas geographical, time
zone, and political only contain 1 or 2 features such as latitude-longitude,
UTCo set, and political alignment.
We queried the metadata information for each article and generated a CSV le
for each barrier. We annotated each article based on that meta information to be
used for model training and classi cation. For economic and cultural barriers, we
calculated cosine similarity between vectors of economical values and vectors of
cultural values. Score greater than the threshold value of 0.9 labeled as FALSE
otherwise TRUE. We set the lowest value as a threshold based on the fact that
if two countries have a little gap concerning culture or economical values then
there exists a barrier. For geographical barriers, we compared the latitude and
longitude of the country of each publisher. If a country name or lat/lat appeared
to be the same then we annotated it with FALSE otherwise TRUE. Lastly, for
Barrier Features</p>
      <p>Rank, Safety-Security,
Economic PEenrtseornparils-Fe-rCeeodnodmit,ioGnso,veMrnaarknecte-,InSforcaisatlr-uCcatpuirtea,l,EIcnovneosmtmice-nQt-uEanlivtyir,onment,
Living-Conditions, Health, Education, Natural-Environment</p>
      <p>Power-Distance,
Cultural Uncertainty-Avoidance-By-Individuals, Individualistic-Cultures,</p>
      <p>Masculinity-Femininity, Long-Term-Orientation, Indulgence-Restraint
Geographical Latitude, Longitude
Time Zone UTC-o set
Political Political-Alignment
time-zone and political barriers, we followed the same process that was for the
geographical barrier. if political alignment or UTC-o set appeared to be the
same for a pair then it is annotated with FALSE otherwise TRUE. Figure 4
depicts the class distribution for each barrier. We can notice unbalanced class
distribution with majority of the examples being False. This is especially true
for Cultural and Political barrier with 91 percent of example being False. Thus
in our evaluation we rely more on F1 measure than classi cation accuracy.
4.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-6-1">
        <title>MATERIALS AND</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-6-2">
        <title>METHODS</title>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Problem Modeling</title>
      <p>For each barrier, we have a list of news articles where each article is associated
with 300 Wikipedia-concepts and features related to that barrier. The task is to
predict the status S of each barrier B.</p>
      <p>S = f (C; B)
f is the learning function for barrier detection, C is donating here
Wikipediaconcepts related to an article and B is the list of features related to a speci c
barrier (see Table 4).
4.2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>Methodology</title>
      <p>
        We utilized dataset IPoNews [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
        ] and built a database on top of this dataset
that includes barrier knowledge. Figure 5 explains the overall process of model
construction from news articles to results generation. We created a list of
instances using the most frequent Wikipedia-concepts based on news articles and
joined them along with barrier knowledge. After performing the annotation (see
Section 3.6), we trained popular classi cation models and generated the results
on test data (see Section 5.4).
      </p>
      <sec id="sec-8-1">
        <title>EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION</title>
        <p>We used the following methods as baselines for all our models.
{ Uniform: Generates predictions uniformly at random.
{ Strati ed: Generates predictions by respecting the training set's class
distribution.
{ Most Frequent: Always predicts the most frequent label in the training
set.
5.2</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-9">
      <title>Classi cation Methods</title>
      <p>We trained popular classi cation models for each barrier such as SVM, kNN,
Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Naive Bayes using Scikit-Learn. We applied
a strati ed 10-fold cross-validator to split the dataset for training and testing.
For Random Forest, kNN, and Decision Tree, we varied the size of n-estimator,
value of k, and max-leafs and chosen the one with the best score on test data
respectively. Implementation of this methodology to barrier detection can be
found on GitHub 6.
5.3</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-10">
      <title>Evaluation Metric</title>
      <p>Due to imbalance in the class distribution for all barriers, we used micro averaged
precision and recall to evaluate our models. 7
{ Micro-Precision: The precision of average contributions from each class is
calculated in micro-precision whereas the following question is answered by
precision: What proportion of positive predictions was correct? It is de ned
as:</p>
      <sec id="sec-10-1">
        <title>M icro P recision =</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-10-2">
        <title>T rueP ositivesum</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-10-3">
        <title>T rueP ositivesum + F alseP ositivesum</title>
        <p>{ Micro-Recall: Recall of average contributions from each class is calculated
in micro-recall whereas the following question is answered by recall: What
proportion of actual positives was predicted correctly? It is de ned as:</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-10-4">
        <title>M icro Recall =</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-10-5">
        <title>T rueP ositivesum</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-10-6">
        <title>T rueP ositivesum + F alseN egativesum</title>
        <p>5.4</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-11">
      <title>Results and Analysis</title>
      <p>Table 5 shows the results of all the classi ers for each barrier along with baselines.
Analysis of the experimental results show that overall all the machine learning
models outperform the three baselines. For all the barriers, we can notice
MicroRecall is equal to Micro-Precision. The best performing baseline is the
"Mostfrequent" with Micro-F1 for economic, cultural, geographical, time zone, and
political barrier equal to 0.70, 0.90, 0.58, 0.70, and 0.90 respectively. The best
performing models on all the barriers are Decision Tree, Random Forest, and
kNN. Looking at Micro-F1, we can see that on the Economic and Cultural
barrier kNN achieved the best performance of 0.75 and 0.95 respectively. On
Geographical barriers, kNN and Decision Tree performed the best achieving 0.81.
On Time-Zone, the best performing classi er is Random Forest with Micro-F1
6 https://github.com/cleopatra-itn/BarrierDetection-Classi cation
7
https://peltarion.com/knowledge-center/documentation/evaluationview/classi cation-loss-metrics/micro-recall
0.83. On Political barriers, SVM, kNN, and Random Forest achieve the best
Micro-F1 score of 0.97.</p>
      <p>In terms of classi cation accuracy, we can see that Random Forest
outperforms the baselines as well as the other four classi ers for the rst four barriers.
Notice that Random forest performs better than decision tree but takes more
time. Naive-Bayes achieves a little bit lower classi cation accuracy than the
Decision Tree for the rst four barriers. On the political barrier Naive-Bayes achieves
the best classi cation accuracy (0.98) but lower Micro-F1 (0.66).
6</p>
      <sec id="sec-11-1">
        <title>CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-11-2">
        <title>WORK</title>
        <p>
          It is highly important to detect the barriers while information propagates
specifically through the news. For journalists, marketers, and social scientists, the
phenomenon of knowing which barrier appeared most frequently for what type of
events, is signi cantly helpful to solve business and marketing problems. In this
regard, we proposed a simple methodology. Though its results are good enough
for three types of events, we would like to enhance features as well as events. We
used only Wikipedia-concepts and meta information to detect barriers. In the
future, we would like to use DMoz categories provided by Event Registry [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
          ],
and transformation of the text of news articles as a feature for barrier detection.
Currently geographical and time zone barriers are calculated in a binary way
either the same or di erent. In the future, we would like to introduce the distance
between countries and between time zones as labels instead of the currently used
binary labeling.
7
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-11-3">
        <title>ACKNOWLEDGMENTS</title>
        <p>The research described in this paper was supported by the Slovenian research
agency under the project J2-1736 Causalify and co- nanced by the Republic
of Slovenia and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation
program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 812997.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
  </body>
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