=Paper= {{Paper |id=Vol-2834/Paper4.pdf |storemode=property |title=Use of Cognitive Technology Methods in Modeling Business Scenarios in Recreational Area of the Region |pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2834/Paper4.pdf |volume=Vol-2834 |authors=Igor A. Bukreev,Nadezhda K. Boyarchuk }} ==Use of Cognitive Technology Methods in Modeling Business Scenarios in Recreational Area of the Region== https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2834/Paper4.pdf
38


     Use of Cognitive Technology Methods in Modeling
    Business Scenarios in Recreational Area of the Region*

     Igor A. Bukreev1 [0000--0002-6903-946X] and Nadezhda K. Boyarchuk1 [0000-0003-3702-6645]
                1V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University, Simferopol, Russia


                      bukreev.igor@bk.ru, b_nadin@bk.ru



         Abstract. The article is devoted to the modeling of business development sce-
         narios in the recreational sector of the region. The paper presents an assessment
         of the resource and institutional support for the development of entrepreneurship
         in the recreational area of the region. Priority elements of the institutional sup-
         port system, on their basis, provide an opportunity to develop activities and sce-
         narios for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sector of the
         region. The paper notes the problems of moral and physical obsolescence of
         recreational and general infrastructure, off-season, and employment of the popu-
         lation. Based on the results of further research using the method of cognitive
         modeling, an assessment of the prospects for the development of entrepreneur-
         ship in the recreational sector shows that it is necessary to pay attention to the
         modernization and organization of the recreational complex of the region, the
         formation of a constructive dialogue between the private and public sectors, and
         the need to develop sanatorium.

         Keywords: Entrepreneurship in the Recreational Sector, Resource Provision,
         System of Institutional Factors, Cognitive Technology, Factors of Adjacency
         Matrix, Scenarios for Modeling Entrepreneurship Development in the Recrea-
         tional Sphere.


1        Introduction

In the process of research, economic phenomena in the recreational industry of the re-
gion are presented as a combination of multifactorial and interrelated occurring phe-
nomena characterized by constant variability of their causes. All changes in political,
social, and economic aspects are considered as factors in the development of entrepre-
neurship in this area. In the process of researching entrepreneurial activity, there is a
problem of insufficient quantitative information, which allows the use of qualitative
characteristics. Regardless of the complexity of such situations, decisions are required
regarding the methods and tools used to solve the problem.


*    Copyright 2021 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License
     Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
                                                                                       39


   The problem associated with the development of entrepreneurship as a form of real-
ization of recreational potential requires the development of certain measures, the ef-
fectiveness of which depends on assessing the state of the system of institutional factors
that provide entrepreneurship in the field of recreation. The number of factors in the
situations understudy can be not only many but also their significance and condition
depend on other changing conditions. Such a situation makes it possible to characterize
many institutional formations that are forming in the economy as weakly structured
systems and use cognitive modeling tools to solve their goals and objectives.
   Cognitive technology in its complex makes extensive use of the method of simula-
tion of complex weakly structured systems.
    To study the development of the tourism and recreation industry, you can use sim-
ulation and other means of a cognitive approach, which are widely used in the econo-
mies of developed countries, and their scope is constantly expanding. This method is
developed by scientists N. A. Abramova [1], Z. K. Avdeeva, S. V. Kovrigoy,
D. I. Makarenko [2], E. K. Kornoushenko [3], V. I. Maksimov [4], G.V. Gorelova [5].
   Purpose of the study. To analyze scenarios for the development of entrepreneurship
in the recreational sphere of the region based on the use of cognitive technology meth-
ods.
   Methodology. The methods of simulation modeling of complex weakly structured
systems were used in assessing the development scenarios of entrepreneurship in the
recreational sphere.


2      Analysis of the prospects for the development of the
       recreational sphere of Crimea and Big Yalta

2.1    Analysis of the economic and geopolitical state of the region
The presence of Crimea's unique natural resources is the basis for the development of
entrepreneurship in the recreational industry, but resource provision alone is not enough
for the effective economic development of the region. Thus, a system of institutional
factors plays a special role, on which, in essence, the efficiency of resource use in the
recreational industry depends.
   Over the last ten years in the Big Yalta, entrepreneurial activity marked the highest
revenues in the regional budget of Crimea from recreational activities. This fact is not
surprising as the territory of the Big Yalta has excellent resources for entrepreneurship
in the recreational sphere and high concentration. In [6] presents an assessment of the
resource potential of the Big Yalta in respect of the Republic of Crimea. The resource
potential of the Big Yalta is 20.3% of the regional capacity in the occupied area 1.1%
of the area of Crimea. The territorial concentration of the recreational potential at 18.4
times higher than in the region.
   In such a situation, when the existing material base and natural component represent
a high level of competitive advantages relative to other regions of the Crimea, great
importance is given to the system of institutional factors that provide entrepreneurship
in the field of recreation [7-8].
40


   In the calculations carried out in [9], the effectiveness of the system of institutional
factors for the realization of potential received an assessment of 6 points out of a 10-
point scale.
   Each group takes an appropriate place in the priority order. The most important
indicator in the system is the formation of the competitiveness of the material and tech-
nical base of recreation and tourism. The sequence of several elements of the system
of institutional factors is the basis for developing a strategy for improving efficiency
[10-11].


2.2    Formation of the sequence of priorities of the elements of the system of
       institutional factors
   When forming the sequence of priority of the elements of the system of institutional
factors, the first to be predominantly those elements that have a high significance of the
group into which they belong regardless of the assessment of their level and signifi-
cance in the group. So, in the work, a sequence of elements was formed according to
the obtained values of the coefficients, which are located in decreasing order: 1 - per-
mit-coordination system of investment in the industry - 0.3708; 2 - equipped pebble
beaches - 0.3102; 3 - the scale of the organization of the subjects of the SC and the
hotel industry - 0.2754; 4 - SC integration in market relations - 0.2576; 5 - coordination
in the actions of all subjects of the region - 0.2323; 6 - non-tourist development of the
region - 0.2203; 7 - organizational and economic structure of private sector develop-
ment - 0.2132; 8 - transport accessibility of the region - 0.1654; 9 - organizational and
economic structure of the consumer market - 0.1629; 10 - organizational and economic
structure of the leisure and entertainment sector - 0.1540; 11 - qualification of existing
industry experts - 0.1506; 12 - the availability of lending to the tourism business -
0.1337; 13 - transport improvement - 0.1288; 14 - state support for the regional devel-
opment strategy - 0.1264; 15 - innovation and event tourism during the off-season -
0.1021; 16 - legality of the industry - 0,0896; 17 - competitiveness of the ratio of price
and quality of services in the international market - 0.0745; 18 - accessibility of cultural
and historical sites - 0.0744; 19 - improvement of the mountainous zone - 0.0654; 20 -
the necessary conditions for the growth of real incomes of the local population - 0.0647;
21 - methods of spa treatment - 0.0641; 22 - development and interest of the training
system in training and professional development of an industry employee - 0.0613;
23 - placement of information on recreational and tourist facilities on the Internet -
0.0576; 24 - measures to develop a uniform development of potential - 0.0571; 25 -
environmental measures - 0.052.
   Following the existing groups of the system, there are problematic elements that re-
quire appropriate improvements.
   To increase the level of investment attractiveness and activity in the region, measures
are needed to form investment and tourism cooperation with other regions and at the
international level, the use of franchising in tourism, and the adaptation of international
experience. An increase in the level of investment activity will affect the improvement
of the material and technical base of tourism and recreation, the development of inno-
vations, and the extension of seasonality.
                                                                                               41


   The sequence and attitude to groups are presented in the form of a priority graph in
Fig. 1.




Fig. 1. Priority elements of the system of institutional factors for the development of entrepre-
                       neurship in the recreational sphere of the region.

   Budget financing of infrastructure development and public-private partnerships can
be used to develop transport and urban infrastructure, as well as the uniformity of the
recreational development of Big Yalta.
   Improving the effectiveness of instruments of economic stimulation of development.
Formation of the benefits of using the guest card tool and the procedure for obtaining
42


it using information technology through the mandatory registration of all business en-
tities following the services and prices provided, which will affect the legality of the
industry, the development of coordination of actions and, as a result, the improvement
of the price-quality ratio.
    Regarding the rationality of the use of natural and historical and cultural resources
of recreation, it is especially worth noting the use of beach resources associated with
the presence of a departmental approach. In the region, the loading of public beaches
exceeds permissible norms, while on sanatorium and other beaches with limited access
there is an underload.
The mechanism for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sphere of
the region (see Fig. 1) is formed according to the previously identified priority elements
and the groups to which they relate. To structure information regarding the significance
of the basic factors of the system, a sensitivity analysis was used, which is necessary
for constructing a graph and implementing scenario modeling. The sensitivity analysis
allows us to establish causal relationships between the factors of the system, that is,
how one factor affects the state of others, determine the value of the factor for the sys-
tem, and the influence of the system on its state.


3      Stages of cognitive research

To implement the procedure for analyzing the sensitivity of factors, stimulation, and
inhibition matrices were constructed based on expert estimates. The expert survey at
the first stage was based on the implementation of the Moscow Aviation Institute and
took into account the results obtained (Fig. 1), according to which key factors were
compiled (Fig. 2) and the degree of interaction between them was established. In the
questionnaire, experts were asked to indicate the degree of influence and interaction of
the factors compiled, to determine their positive and negative impact.
   All factors of the mechanism to study scenario development were divided into cate-
gories of target, indicators, and leverage [7].
   1. Target (CF) are those factors whose change is the goal of the system:
   - the formation and use of labor resources (F 1);
   - competitiveness of tourism and recreational services (F 4);
   - seasonality of the industry (F 10);
   - the formation of the competitiveness of the material and technical base of recreation
and tourism (F 12).
   2. Indicator factors are compiled based on groups of indicators reflecting ongoing
changes in the system that are limiting the recreational potential:
   - rational use of natural and historical and cultural resources of recreation (F5);
   - the formation and use of social resources of the region (F 7);
   - change in the number of people in the region (F 8);
   - the state of natural recreational factors and the environment (F 13).
   3. Factors (RF) of the controlled impact on the system. Changes in these factors can
affect changes in the state of the system:
                                                                                          43


     - the formation of public-private partnership (PPP) in the development of medical
tourism and innovation (F 2);
    - investment activity and international tourism cooperation (F 3);
     - budget financing of the development of tourism infrastructure (including PPP)
(F 6);
    - the development of instruments of economic incentives for the tourism and recre-
ation industry (F 9);
    - formation of a resort education system in the region (F 11).
   The next stage of cognitive research based on causal relationships of factors is the
construction of a cognitive map, which is a partial similarity in the construction tech-
nique with the matrices of stimulation and inhibition.
   According to the results of the analysis of the questionnaires of the relationships of
each pair of factors, arcs were formed to build a graph and adjacency matrix. In the
questionnaires, it was required to indicate the values: positive, negative, zero.
   Thus, five main factors-development levers are identified, which are formed to in-
crease the levels of priority elements. The factor in the formation of public-private
partnership (PPP) in the development of medical tourism and innovation is the focus of
state support for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sphere of the
region as a certainty of the problem and the need to solve it. Factors of one group may
be related to the formation of different levers for the development of entrepreneurship
in the recreational sphere of the region
   Cognitive map [3] is a square table containing rows and columns according to the
form of underlying factors, and at the intersection of the ith row and jth column reflects
the impact of one factor on another in the form of a plus sign (+) positive or (–)
negative. Moreover, the connection will be (+) if an increase (decrease) in the ith factor
leads to an increase (decrease) in the jth factor, and if there is a discrepancy to the
above, the connection will be (-). A cognitive map can be expressed as a directed graph,
where F - is the set of vertices (factors), A - are arcs reflecting the influence of factors.
The next step is the need to check the model for adequacy, which is a comparison of
the information of the simulated system in a certain parameter area with the information
that the model provides in this area of system parameters. In the case of small discrep-
ancies, the model is considered adequate [3]. The oriented graph is depicted (Table 1)
as an adjacency (incidence) matrix of the graph.

                                   Table 1. Adjacency Matrix.

    Factors   F1   F2    F3    F4     F5    F6   F7    F8   F9   F10 F11 F12 F13
    F1        0    1     0     1      0     0    0     1    0    0   0   0   0
    F2        0    0     1     1      0     0    1     1    0    -1    0    1     1
    F3        1    1     0     1      1     1    0     0    1    -1    0    1     -1
    F4        0    0     0     0      0     0    0     1    0    -1    0    0     0
    F5        0    1     0     0      0     0    1     1    0    1     0    0     0
    F6        0    1     1     0      0     0    0     0    1    0     0    1     0
    F7        1    0     0     1      0     0    0     1    0    0     0    0     0
44


      F8       1      1      1      -1    -1      0     -1      0     0      0        1   0   -1
      F9       0      1      0      1     1       1     1       0     0      0        1   0   0
      F10      -1     0      -1     -1    -1      0     -1      -1    0      0        0   0   -1
      F11      1      1      0      0     0       0     1       1     0      -1       0   0   0
      F12      1      1      1      1     0       0     0       1     0      0        0   0   0
      F13      0      1      0      1     0       0     0       1     -1     0        0   0   0
The oriented graph with the stability of each of its vertices is absolutely and momentum
stable. To check the graph for stability, the roots of the characteristic equation of the
adjacency matrix are calculated, and the graph is stable if each modulo value is at most
unity [4].
   To study the stability matrix formula (1) is used to obtain a nonlinear equation
                                              A  E  0 ,                                         (1)

   Where A – oriented graph adjacency matrix G;
     – roots of the characteristic equation;
   E – unit matrix.
   The nonlinear equation was solved in the MathCAD system and the results of the
eigenvalues were obtained:
                                             = 4,221;
                                          -0,103+1,97i;
                                          1,659+0,673i;
                                         -0,525+0,946i;
                                       2,313*10-3-0,959i;
                                     -0,599; 0,432+0,407i;
                                      0,432-0,407i; 0,084.
   Following the results obtained, many eigenvalues of the matrix modulo exceed unity
and characterize the mechanism for realizing the region’s potential as structurally un-
stable, which stimulates its changes to environmental conditions. After the creation of
the cognitive map and checking the model adequacy the next step is modeling, the pur-
pose of which is to develop areas (pulse processes) of the object in the future, and on
this basis, it is possible to choose the optimal variant. Modeling of simple impulse pro-
cesses is based on a theorem on the propagation of disturbances on a graph (formula 2)
[5;12]:
                                                                                 
                    p(t )  p(0)  [ At ], X (t )  X (0)  E  A  A 2  ...  At ,               (2)

     where p(t) – vector of graph vertex parameters changes;
     p(0) – vector of initial pulses;
     A – adjacency matrix;
     t – modeling steps t(0, 1, 2, 3, …, n);
     X(t) – the values of the parameters of the vertices on the modeling cycle t;
     X(0) – the value of the parameters of the vertices at the initial cycle;
     E – unit matrix.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           45


   The developed scenarios of behavior modeling exclude the use of a large set of com-
binations of factors and are based on the desired impulse effects on the mechanism as
a system following.
   According to the presented development scenarios, we demonstrate only some of
them (Table 2).
   Scenario 1 simulation results Qf3=+1, where pi(0) – initial impulse, directed to the
top of the graph, and i – script number (i=1, 2, 3, ..., n). In order to develop the scenario
i=1, we set the vector of initial pulses p1T(0)=(0,0, +1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0) to the vertex
F3. A pulse arrives at one vertex of a digraph, which is a simple process of propagation
of pulses on a graph [5].
   As (t=5) we define the vectors of variation of the parameters of the vertices of the
graph p(1), …, p(5) according to each of the n1, …, n5.

 Table 2. Scenarios for modeling the behavior of the mechanism for the development of entre-
                     preneurship in the recreational sphere of the region*.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   F                             F                                           F                            F
                                    F1                                         F2                            F3                                              F4                                            F5                                            F6                                           F7                                             F8                                   F9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10                            11                                          12                           13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The formation and use of social resources of
                                                                                                                                                             Competitiveness of tourist and recreational
                                                                                          activity in the region and inter-




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Formation of competitiveness of the mate-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Budget financing of tourism infrastructure
                                                                               Formation of public-private partnership in




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Use of natural recreational factors and the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Formation of a resort education system in
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Rational use of natural and historical-cul-




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Development of instruments of economic
 Simulation Scenarios




                                    The formation and use of labor resources


                                                                               the development of medical tourism and




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             rial and technical base of recreation and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Change in population in the region
                           Pulses




                                                                                                                              national tourism cooperation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Seasonality of the industry
                                                                                       innovation




                                                                                                                                                                                                           tural resources

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         development




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           environment
                                                                               investment




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          incentives
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      the region




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 the region
                                                                                                                                                             services
                                                                               tourism




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             tourism




 1                      Qf3=+1                                                                                   +1
                        Qf3=+1
 2                      Qf6=+1                                                                                   +1                                                                                                                                        +1
                        Qf3=–1
 3
                        Q4=–1                                                                                    –1                                            –1
                        Qf2=+1
 4                      Qf6=–1
                        Qf9=–1                                                  +1                                                                                                                                                                         –1                                                                                                                               –1
                        Qf2=+1
 5                      Qf6=+1
                        Qf9=+1                                                  +1                                                                                                                                                                         +1                                                                                                                              +1
         * Compiled by the author based on expert judgment

System simulation beats n=5:
46


              pT (1)  pT (0)  0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
     1) n1:                                                                                ;
     2) n2: p (2)   p(0)  A  1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1  1 0 1  1 ;
               T                    T



     3) n3: p (3)   p(0)  A   2 4 4 4 2 1 4 5 2  1 1 2 2 ;
               T                   2 T


     4) n4: p T (4)   p(0)  A3 T  17 21 13 16 2 6 5 22 3  11 7 9  4 ;
     5) n5: p T (5)   p(0)  A4 T  67 75 69 53 5 16 22 84 23  55 25 40  3

     After the calculations p(1), …, p(5) find vectors X(1), …, X(5) vertex parameters:
                    X T (1)  X T (0)  p T (1)  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
                                0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
                              0    0 1 0          0   0   0    0   0       0   0   0     0 ;
               X ( 2)  X (1)  p ( 2)  0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
                    T         T           T

                          1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1  1 0 1  1 
                          1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1  1 0 1  1 ;
               X T (3)  X T ( 2)  p T (3)  1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1  1 0 1  1 
                         2       4 4 4 2 1 4 5 2  1 1 2 2
                         3       5 5 5 3 2 4 5 3  2 1 3 1;
Impulse arrival at the top of the graph F3. According to the impulse scenario, an in-
crease in the level of investment activity in the region contributes to the improvement
of the material and technical base of recreation and tourism, the development of a train-
ing system. The growth of indicators is observed from the third step of modeling. The
results are presented in the table of values of the vertices of the graph after modeling
the generated pulse (Table 3) and see Fig. 2.

                                  Table 3. First development scenario Qf3=+1.

                                   X(1)       X(2)         X(3)         X(4)        X(5)         X(6)
              F1                   0          1            3            20          87           382
              F2                   0          1            5            26          101          427
              F3                   1          1            5            18          87           357
              F4                   0          1            5            21          74           338
              F5                   0          1            3            5           10           73
              F6                   0          1            2            8           24           116
              F7                   0          0            4            9           31           130
              F8                   0          0            5            27          111          450
              F9                   0          1            3            6           29           117
              F10                  0          -1           -2           -13         -68          -285
              F11                  0          0            1            8           33           140
              F12                  0          1            3            12          52           212
              F13                  0          -1           1            -3          -6           -29
                                                                                       47



  500
                                                                                 F1
  400                                                                            F2
  300                                                                            F3
                                                                                 F4
  200                                                                            F5
  100                                                                            F6
                                                                                 F7
     0                                                                           F8
              X (2)       X (3)          X (4)          X (5)     X (6)          F9
 -100
                                                                                 F10
 -200                                                                            F11
 -300                                                                            F12
                                                                                 F13
 -400

                      Fig. 2. Development modeling scenario Qf3=+1.

Positive impulses arrive at the top F2, F6, and F9 (Table 4)) and see Fig. 3.

               Table 4. Fifth Development Scenario Qf2=+1, Qf6=+1, Qf9=+1.

                         X(1)     X(2)           X(3)     X(4)   X(5)     X(6)
         F1              0        0              9        46     203      850
         F2              1        3              13       56     232      967
         F3              0        2              9        45     193      808
         F4              0        2              12       44     174      759
         F5              0        1              4        7      29       164
         F6              1        2              5        14     60       256
         F7              0        2              7        18     64       309
         F8              0        1              13       63     246      1030
         F9              1        2              4        14     62       273
         F10             0        -1             -7       -33    -155     -647
         F11             0        1              3        17     77       308
         F12             0        2              7        27     115      485
         F13             0        1              1        -2     -19      -52
48



     1100
                                                                                               F1
     900                                                                                       F2
                                                                                               F3
     700
                                                                                               F4
     500                                                                                       F5
     300                                                                                       F6
                                                                                               F7
     100                                                                                       F8
     -100                                                                                      F9
                   X (3)              X (4)               X (5)              X (6)
                                                                                               F10
     -300
                                                                                               F11
     -500                                                                                      F12
                                                                                               F13
     -700


               Fig. 3. Development modeling scenario Qf2=+1, Qf6=+1, Qf9=+1.


4       Conclusion

    In the fifth scenario, there is a significant increase in system performance, especially after the
fifth cycle of modeling. Of the simulated development scenarios, this is the most favorable for
the system. Factors Qf6=+1, Qf9=+1 that provide positive impulses to the top of the system and
cause a balanced development of tourism. Impulse moves to the top Qf2=+1, which is reflected in
the development of entrepreneurship innovations in tourism and recreation services and medical
tourism during the off-season.
    Cognitive technology in its complex makes extensive use of the method of simulation of com-
plex weakly structured systems. Simulation and other means of the cognitive approach are widely
used in the economies of developed countries, and the scope is constantly expanding.
    The use of cognitive technology makes it possible to obtain a qualitative assessment of the
interaction of factors, scenario development of the situation, and trend, as well as evaluate the
results of the proposed activities.



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                                                                                               49


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