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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Conceptual Model of Self-Organisation and Formalization of Complex Socioeconomic Systems*</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>V. I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Simferopol</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <fpage>0000</fpage>
      <lpage>0002</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>The ability to self-organize is a fundamental property of any open nonequilibrium system. The process of self-organization promotes order, hierarchy, and evolutionary system development. Applying a synergistic approach to investigating socioeconomic systems and formulating control actions based on theoretical models are both innovative technologies and help increase the efficiency of management. Applying a synergistic approach to investigating the attributes of a business as a micro-level socioeconomic system allows leaping a new conceptual framework of management, based not on the management of deviations or current goals, but on the concept of system development that would pre-empt crises. The goal of this study is to create a quantitative assessment instrument that enables assessment of the ability of micro-level socio-economic systems to selforganize. To achieve this goal, the authors develop a conceptual model in the form of a semantic web, which demonstrates the relations between factors influencing the ability to self-organize. Additionally, a formalization of the conceptual system is proposed based on fuzzy set theory. A practical implementation of the self-organization ability assessment technique is also proposed in the form of an intelligent system based on the MathCAD mathematics package.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>self-organization</kwd>
        <kwd>the socioeconomic system</kwd>
        <kwd>business crisis</kwd>
        <kwd>decision support systems</kwd>
        <kwd>computer modeling</kwd>
        <kwd>fuzzy logic</kwd>
        <kwd>MathCAD</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>Any system that has humans as part of the complex system. Complex systems possess
certain special properties that ensure their integrity and viability. Businesses are
complex socioeconomic systems, and to survive in the highly competitive and turbulent
environment of the modern world they must be able to self-regulate, adapt, and
selforganize. While the first two abilities have been studied in contemporary research [1],
the issue of business self-organization has yet to be studied extensively.
*</p>
      <p>The ability to self-organize is a fundamental property of any open non-equilibrium
system. The process of self-organization begets order, hierarchy, and evolutionary
system development. The study of self-organization has been made possible due to the
development of a new field of science dubbed “synergetic”. It stems from Hermann
Haken’s 1973 report on “Cooperative phenomena in systems far from thermal
equilibrium and in nonphysical systems”. Today it is an interdisciplinary science with a
developed methodology and mathematical tools. Applying the synergetic approach to
different systems has caused some breakthroughs in physics, chemistry, and biology. In all
of these cases, the object of study was a certain non-linear complex system now of a
phase transition caused by changing external conditions – temperature, pressure,
magnetic and electrical field, etc. In social sciences, the synergetic approach is traditionally
applied to study the evolutionary processes of system development. Additionally, new
directions of research have been proposed, as in [2, 3], where the synergetic paradigm
serves as a basis for studying self-organization mechanisms in networked structures.
The issues of organizing a coordinated and practical group action in a complex social
system, defined as “swarm intelligence”, are examined in [5]. The science of synergetic
has also given rise to a new paradigm of interdisciplinary studies – complexity theory.
Complexity theory studies the fundamental properties of complex adaptive systems,
like societies and economies. Complexity theory has been applied to studying
largescale socioeconomic systems, and these applications are well described in [6, 7].</p>
      <p>Researchers from other fields have also studied the issues of social system
self-organization. The idea of system self-organization has been significantly influenced by
the work of Chilean researchers H. Maturana and F. Varela, founders of the theory of
autopoiesis, and their followers. The theory of autopoiesis is centered around the idea
that “living” systems can autonomously replicate their structure, not through simple
reproduction, but through supporting their identity. Additionally, N. Luhmann’s theory
of social communication has also studied social system self-organization. Luhmann’s
self-organization is comprised of operationally closed self-referential communicative
processes. Luhmann asserts that communication in a system begets communication,
and the organization of system structure happens to support that communication.
Studies in micro-level self-organization processes, such as [8-11] and others, indicate the
direction of future study in this field. The authors consider the following issues to be of
particular relevance: managing complex self-organizing systems, supporting
equilibrium, assessing the risk of integrity loss (system death), as well as issues assessing
system self-organization ability. The goal of this study is to create a quantitative
assessment instrument that enables assessment of the ability of micro-level socio-economic
systems to self-organize.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Primary Assumptions and Methodology</title>
      <p>This study proposes a model for assessing the ability of a business to self-organize
based on self-assessment. This technique assumes the use of expert information, which
generally contains subjective assessments that may be uncertain, fuzzy, and incomplete.
This peculiarity of available input variables was the motivation behind the choice of
fuzzy set theory as the mathematical toolset for this study. Fuzzy set theory has been
successfully applied in multiple studies of various socioeconomic systems, as well as
in assessing specific business characteristics [12]. One widespread type of fuzzy model
is the fuzzy production model. A fuzzy production model may be described using a set
of linguistic variables (input and output) and a base of fuzzy production rules, which
associate the model’s input and output. The formalization of the model proposed in this
study was preceded by an analysis of existing literature in the field and conceptual
modeling of the subject area, which resulted in a set of linguistic variables for the
model. This study does not concern itself with an in-depth look at the steps involved in
fuzzy logical output, as this aspect is well studied and executed by experts using
specialized software. For a quantitative assessment of a business’ ability to self-organize,
the authors propose the use of the Mamdani method and the center of gravity method
as the defuzzification operator.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Modeling the Assessment of Self-Organization Ability</title>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Conceptual Model of Business Self-Organization Ability Assessment</title>
        <p>The conceptual model is comprised of three blocks – structural components of the
model. Each block contains variables that best represent it from the point of view of
self-organization ability.</p>
        <p>Motivation. Motivation generates internal energy in a social system and creates
change. Indicators that reflect the level of motivational energy include engagement,
professional identity, and loyalty. Engagement is defined as the desire of employees to
contribute personally to the business. The professional identity reflects the perception
of the goals of a business by employees as their own. Loyalty is defined as employee
satisfaction with their career growth and employee trust in the management team.</p>
        <p>Organization. The organization block represents a set of indicators that characterize
the potential of a business’ reproductive capacity. Here, three specific aspects are of
particular interest:
 the presence of a concrete foundation in the management system, which would serve
as a basis for reformatting the organizational structure of a business. In many
businesses, the corporate culture serves as this foundation. Corporate culture, as the
“genetic code” of a business, ensures the business’ uniqueness and reproduction;
 the ability of a business to evolve, for the complexity of its hierarchy to grow, which
is ensured by limiting organizational diversity on the lowest levels. This principle of
complex system organization is well-known in general systems theory and
cybernetics, and it has been repeatedly formulated and applied to many different kinds of
systems by various researchers;
 the presence of a leader or a management team able to assume an “architectural” role
and build or rebuild the organizational structure, which would be in line with internal
requirements and external demands, and which would ensure growth of the business’
competitive ability on the market. In this study, the indicator for this property is
defined as the level of professionalism in the management team.
Reflexive connections. Reflexive connections ensure coordination and synchronicity
of business activities through an individual’s imitation of the logic behind the thoughts
and actions of others in their mind. Reflexive connections act as a compensatory,
fallback channel in case of dysfunction in the formal management structure. V.
Lefebvre introduced reflection as a term in the 1960s, and his theory of reflexive
management has been called “second-generation cybernetics” due to its lack of backward
linkages in the management process. According to Lefebvre, reflexive processes are
included in the self-regulation mechanisms of all social systems. In this study, reflexive
connections are characterized quantitively as the level of social intelligence in a group.
3.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>Determining Input and Output Variables</title>
        <p>
          Thus, the conceptual model of business self-organization ability assessment may be
represented in the form of a semantic web of the following form (Fig. 1), which
demonstrates the relations between indicators:
Hereafter it is assumed that all variables being introduced are linguistic variables. They
are represented in the form (
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
          ):
&lt;X, T(X), U&gt;
(
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
          )
where X is the name of the linguistic variable, T(X) is a set of linguistic (verbal) values
of variable X, otherwise called the term-set of the linguistic variable, U is its domain.
        </p>
        <p>X1 = “Degree of employee engagement” with universal set UX1=[0;1]. Term-set
T(X1) = {“full”, “high”, “average”, “low”, “none”}.</p>
        <p>X2 = “Degree of professional identity” with universal set UX2=[0;1]. Term-set
T(X2) = {“full”, “high”, “average”, “low”, “none”}.</p>
        <p>X3 = “Degree of employee loyalty” with universal set UX3=[0;1]. Term-set T(X3) =
{“full”, “high”, “average”, “low”, “none”}.</p>
        <p>X4= “Level of social intelligence” with universal set UX4=[0;1]. Term-set T(X4) =
{“high”, “above average”, “average”, “below average”, “low”}.</p>
        <p>X5= “Level of corporate culture” with universal set UX5=[0;1]. Term-set T(X5) =
{“high”, “above average”, “average”, “below average”, “low”}.</p>
        <p>X6= “Level of management process standardization and unification” with universal
set UX6=[0;1]. Term-set T(X6) = {“high”, “above average”, “average”, “below
average”, “low”}.</p>
        <p>X7= “Level of manager professionalism” with universal set UX7=[0;1]. Term-set
T(X7) = {“high”, “above average”, “average”, “below average”, “low”}.</p>
        <p>Y1 = “Level of motivation” with universal set UY1=[0;1]. Term-set T(Y1) = {“high”,
“above average”, “average”, “below average”, “low”}.</p>
        <p>Y2 = “Potential of business reproduction” with universal set UY2=[0;1]. Term-set
T(Y2) = {“high”, “above average”, “average”, “below average”, “low”}.</p>
        <p>Output variable Z = “Ability to self-organize” with universal set UZ=[0;1].
Termset T(Z) = {“high”, “above average”, “average”, “below average”, “low”}.</p>
        <p>
          All terms are represented by fuzzy sets, and each of them is represented by trapezoid
membership functions. To describe the leftmost term, an expression of the form
 L (a, b, c, d , x) is used (
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
          ):
 1,
b  x
 L (a,b, c, d , x)  
b  a
 0,
,
for central terms –  C (a, b, c, d , x) (
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          ):
for the rightmost term –  R (a, b, c, d , x) (
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
          ):
 0,
 x  a

 c  a
 C (a,b, c, d , x)   1,
 b  x
b 0,d
,
,
 0,
 x  a
 R (a,b, c, d , x)  
b  a
 1,
,
x  a
x  b
x  b
x  a
a  x  c
c  x  d
d  x  b
x  b
x  a
x  b
x  b
(
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
          )
(
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          )
(
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
          )
where a, b, c, d are the parameters of the membership function calculated based on
the assessment expert of the results.
        </p>
        <p>Specific values of the input variables may be obtained using surveys and special
psychological techniques.
3.3</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-3">
        <title>Fuzzy Production Model for Assessing Self-Organization Ability</title>
        <p>The relationship between input and output variables is made possible by a system of
fuzzy production rules built on a generalization of expert community experience. The
rule system imitates expert reasoning and represents a hierarchy of knowledge bases
about relations depicted in Fig. 1.</p>
        <p>
          Generally, a system of fuzzy production rules that model an assessment of the ability
to self-organize can be represented in the following form (
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6 ref7">5-7</xref>
          ):
(
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          )
(
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
          )
(
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          )
e j  3 
 Xi  a Xi j, p   Y1  aY1 j , j  1, r
p1i1 
w j  7 
  X i  a X i j, p   Y2  aY2 j j  1,b
p1i5 
qj
 X 4  a X4 j,p   Y1  aY1 j,p  Y2  aY2 j,p   Z  aZ j j  1, m
p1
where:
jp ;
aY1 j ;
 a X i j, p is a fuzzy term used to assess values of input variables
X
i in rule number
 e j is the amount of conjunctions in which the output variable Y1 is assessed by term
 r is the number of terms for a linguistic variable Y1 ,
        </p>
        <p>Y
tions in which output variable 2 is assessed by term
;
w</p>
        <p>j is the number of
conjuncaY2 j
 b is the number of terms for linguistic variable Y2 ;</p>
        <p>q

</p>
        <p>j is the number of conjunctions in which output variable Z is assessed by term
aZ j ;
m - is the number of terms for the linguistic variable Z .
3.4</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-4">
        <title>Results and Further Study</title>
        <p>For a practical implementation of the technique used to assess the ability to
self-organize, an intelligent system has been developed based on the MathCAD mathematics
package, which implements synthesis of the integral variable using the Mamdani
method. The developed computer program is, in essence, a decision support system that
ensures storage and management of databases and knowledge bases, implements the
stages of phasing, aggregation, activation, accumulation, and dephasing, and
synthesizes new knowledge – a comprehensive assessment of the ability of a business to
selforganize.</p>
        <p>The architecture of the decision support system includes standard building blocks: a
database, a knowledge base, a model base, the program environment implementing
computational algorithms, data control, and user interface. Generally, the decision
support system architecture may be represented as in Fig. 2:</p>
        <sec id="sec-3-4-1">
          <title>Database</title>
          <p>Knowledge base</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-3-4-2">
          <title>Program control subsystem MathCAD</title>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-3-4-3">
          <title>Decision maker</title>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-3-4-4">
          <title>Model base</title>
          <p>Future studies aim to test the model in action in large engineering industry businesses
in the Republic of Crimea, as well as to develop the intelligent decision support system
employing creating an advisory subsystem. Additional capabilities will allow to expand
of the horizons of analysis available to users and help to construct a set of tactics for
management actions.
4</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Conclusion</title>
      <p>This study proposes a novel approach to quantitative assessment of the ability to
selforganize in micro-level socio-economic systems. A mathematical model is developed,
which formalizes expert knowledge in the form of a hierarchical system of linguistic
variables and fuzzy productions, which associate input and output variables at different
aggregation levels. The use of this technique for assessing the ability to self-organize
is proposed as the core of an intelligent decision support system, which enables a
comprehensive assessment of the ability of a business to self-organize and allows choosing
specific tactics for applying management actions.</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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