0 - the sales rate increases at a price lower than the equilibrium one and decreases at a price higher than the equilibrium one, since the coefficient β is negative. It models an aggressive marketing strategy that is often used, for example, in the sales season [10, 11]. In the conditions of the domestic economy of recent decades, up to the present time, one has to deal with the opposite type of inflation - cost inflation. The theory of cost inflation is an economic theory, suggesting that the main reason for the increase in prices is the increase in production costs. In conditions of cost inflation, the growth of the money supply is not the cause of price increases, but a consequence of inflation. Initially, an increase in prices is carried out based on increased average production costs due to an increase, for example, in prices and tariffs for goods and services of natural monopolies. Then nominal GDP increases and demand for money increases, which leads to an increase in the money supply. These economic processes can be observed over a certain period and affect the quality and reliability of the obtained estimates of the influence of individual factors on the value of inflation. It should be borne in mind that the influence of certain factors on the rate of inflation can occur with some lag. Various works devoted to the analysis of the influence of various factors on inflation in the domestic economy contain data on lags from 3 to 12 months. On the other hand, inflation expectations also determine the exact opposite trend - the anticipation of future inflation factors on the dynamics of current prices. This, of course, does not mean that the influence of various factors does not appear in a longer period. The process of reproduction is continuous, and changes in the present period are inextricably linked with those processes that took place in the distant past. In foreign theories of cost inflation, based on the tenets of the theory of A. Smith, the most significant are three factors (their dynamics): wages, profits, prices of im- ported labor items (raw materials, energy, etc.). One of the directions of the theory of cost inflation was a concept that linked the growth of wages (labor costs) and price increases. An attempt to prove the effect of wages on price increases was made back in the 19th century. The idea of this concept is that wage growth if it occurs during periods of cyclical decline in production, can 100 increase costs and prices. This idea is as follows: unions are seeking an “excessive” increase in wages, which drastically reduces profits and provokes a rise in prices as a response of entrepreneurs to rising labor costs. Rising prices reduce real wages, as a result of which trade unions again put forward demands for higher wages, etc. This doctrine is called the spiral of "wages - prices." In the words of the English economist J. Trevitik, "this process resembles a cat chasing its tail with an ever-increasing speed." Modern inflation, according to the American economist J. Tobin, is explained by the "concentration of economic power in the hands of large companies and trade unions." These powerful monopolies do not obey the laws of competition in setting wages and prices. Unions raise wages beyond what would be competitive. Moreover, they are try- ing to get most of the profits of those monopolies and oligopolies with which they are negotiating. But in this regard, they do not succeed, because companies simply shift the increased costs of their wages with the help of higher prices for defenseless customers [12,13]. This interpretation of the causes of inflation does not take into account the influence of monopolies on the general dynamics of prices under the influence of the desire to receive super-profits. Within the framework of this concept, it is proved that monopo- lies are interested in achieving a minimum rate of profit, and price increases are dictated solely by increased costs. The most important role in the spiral mechanism “wages - prices” is played by labor productivity: ─ with its rather high growth, the pressure of wages on prices softens; ─ with a small increase in labor productivity, not to mention stability or a decrease in this indicator, the pressure of rising wages on prices is noticeably increased. A certain role in increasing price changes may play an increase in profits. In the West, there was even such a thing as “administered inflation”, understood as a price increase, caused mainly by the policy of company management (their administrations) to in- crease the mass and rate of return. An important condition for “administered inflation” is the presence of serious market power in the group of the largest producers in most sectors of the modern economy (in the so-called oligopolistic structures of these sec- tors) [14, 15]. The third area of the theory of cost inflation-linked inflationary processes with rising prices for imported goods. This factor of cost inflation often plays a rather important role under the influence of two decisive reasons: with a marked increase in prices for energy and raw materials on the world market (as was observed in the 70s of the 20th century) and as a result of changes in the exchange rate of the national currency for the dollar and others hard currencies. When the dollar exchange rate falls, all imported goods rise in price, which undoubtedly leads to an increase in domestic inflation (the more goods a country imports; moreover, the increase in the price of imported objects of labor through the impact on rising costs of goods produced from them cumulatively increases inflation effect of more expensive imports). With an increase in the exchange rate through cheaper imports, the reverse anti-inflation effect is manifested. 101 In the 60s - early 70s of XX century the theory of cost inflation experienced a rebirth called structuralism. His key idea was to explain inflation with specific structural coun- try factors, such as the ratio of the “progressive” (industrial) sector to the “traditional” (export and agricultural) sectors of the economy [16, 17]. In this regard, more attention should be paid both theoretically and in practical terms to the role of cost inflation in the modern economy. One of the most famous representatives of the monetarist theory M. Friedman be- lieves that the impact of cost inflation is completely negligible. However, the experi- ence of the domestic economy in the 90s indicates that the increase in costs caused by the increase in prices for materials and services does not boil down to a temporary in- crease in the general price level. A drop in production, a decrease in the share of capac- ities used, their obsolescence, and retirement leads to a permanent increase in total av- erage costs, which causes a new round of price growth. The significance of the impact of cost inflation, the price level of goods and services, is confirmed by the analysis of statistical data. The dynamics of the inflation rate (cal- culated by the consumer price index) and the producer price index of the most important raw materials, goods, and services in 1995–2014 are closely correlated over this period. So, in 1995, the highest inflation rates compared to the previous period were ob- served in the 1st quarter of the year, when the producer price indices in the fuel industry and freight transportation tariffs also had the maximum value during the year, and the producer price index in the electric power industry was the second the largest during the year. In 1997, the highest inflation rates were also in the 1st quarter, when producer price indices in the electric power industry and the fuel industry had the maximum value. Since 1999, the importance of monetary factors has increased in connection with the favorable dynamics of world prices for oil and other export goods from Russia. Nevertheless, the cost factors have retained their significance, although under the con- ditions of economic growth their influence is objectively reduced. However, in 2001 and 2003, the highest inflation rates took place in the 1st quarter, when the index of producers in the electric power industry showed the highest rates of price growth. In 2002, the maximum value at the highest inflation rates was the freight tariff index. In 2004, a similar synchronism of indicators was observed for consumer price and pro- ducer indices in the electric power industry and the fuel industry. Also, in the 2000s, the inflation rate was significantly affected by a significant increase in utility tariffs. The neglect or even complete denial of the impact of cost inflation, by many scien- tists and decision-makers, stems from the postulates of the monetarist theory that relates the dynamics of inflation to the characteristics of the money circulation system. It is based on the classical quantitative theory of money. The relationship of money supply and the price level is represented by the I. Fisher exchange equation: MV = PY, where M is the amount of money in circulation, V is the speed of their circulation, P is the price level, Y is the amount of output (real GDP). Irving Fisher based on this equation assumes that price dynamics show an increase or decrease both in direct proportion to the amount of money and their velocity and 102 inversely to the volume of trading performed with money. However, data on the devel- opment of the real Russian economy do not indicate a proportional change in money supply growth and price levels. In 1994-1997, there was a direct correlation between the growth rate of the M2 monetary aggregate and inflation. But this can be considered proportional only during the jumping inflation of 1994-1995. So, in 1994, the inflation rate in the consumer price index (CPI) was 215% with an increase of M2 by 194.5%, in 1995 by 131% and 135.7%, respectively. In 1996-1997, these changes were not pro- portional. In 1996, with an increase in the M2 monetary aggregate by 30.8%, the infla- tion rate was 21.8%, in 1997 - 29.8% and 11.0%, respectively. In 1998, despite a sig- nificant decrease in the growth rate of M2 compared to the previous period to 19.8%, the inflation rate increased significantly - up to 84.4%. In 1999, 2000, and 2003, the money supply compared to the previous year increased by 57.2%, 61.5%, and 50.5%, respectively, and the inflation rate decreased - by 36.5%, 20.2%, and 12, 0%. In 2001, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2014-2017 the analyzed indicators changed in comparison with the previous year in one direction: the growth rate of M2 decreased (39.7; 32.4 and 35.8%), and the inflation rate decreased (18 6; 15.1 and 11.7%). Thus, in 1997–2017. There was not only a proportional, but also, in some years, the direct correlation between the growth rate of the M2 money aggregate and the dynamics of inflationary processes, which casts doubt on the purely monetary nature of Russian in- flation. In theoretical terms, this is because the equation of exchange itself is not a fully adequate model for the balance of money supply at present. The relationship between the volume and speed of the money supply and the price level, of course, exists, but this does not mean their inevitable proportional change. Firstly, only part of the increase in the money supply goes to the purchase of goods and services, and part - to savings. Secondly, the dynamics of money circulation changes over time. Thirdly, it is necessary to take into account the use of foreign currency in the national economy. Under the pretext of fighting inflation, monetary authorities slowed down the growth rate or reduced the real money supply, which always led to a reduction in production and crisis phenomena in the Russian economy (Fig. 1, 2). If the growth rate is less than 20 %, then within six months there will be a reduction in production in sectors produc- ing investment goods (for example, machine tools, locomotives, trucks) [18, 19]. 103 Fig. 1. The relationship of the dynamics of changes in real money supply and crisis phenomena in the Russian economy All of the above has determined the importance of taking into account the factor of cost inflation in the model of the relationship between price dynamics, sales, and stocks of goods. Fig. 2. Dynamics of real money supply in Russia (M2 to the same period last year) Data explain well both the ups and downs of the Russian economy. Fig. 3 shows a block diagram characterizing the influence of the money supply and other basic parameters on the main indicators of economic development. To create the model, the Simulink environment was used, included in the Matlab package - version 2016b. 104 Fig. 3. Block diagram characterizing the influence of the money supply and other basic parame- ters on the main indicators of economic development Part of the program code of the model is presented in Table 1. Table 1. Part of the program code of the model Parameter Value Plot type Stair X value from Event time Open scope at the start of the simula- on tion Initial X-axis lower limit 0 Initial X-axis upper limit 10 If X value is beyond the limit Stretch axis limits Initial Y-axis lower limit 0 Initial Y-axis upper limit 10 If Y value is beyond the limit Stretch axis limits Show grid on Figure position se_figureposition([5 60 25 25]) Show number of points off Store data when the scope is closed Limited Limit data points to 10000 Number of points plotted, #c off Line colors b Line styles - Line markers . Show toolbar on 105 To solve this problem, instead of the system of differential equations (1), the following system of equations is proposed: 𝑑𝐼 = 𝑄−𝑆 𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑃 = −𝛼(𝐼 − 𝐼 ∗ ) + 𝛾𝑃(2) (1) 𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑆 { = −𝛽 (𝑃 − 𝑃 ∗ ) 𝑑𝑡 here γ is the cost inflation coefficient, α and β are positive values, the remaining nota- tion is the same as in system (1). An additional term in the second equation of system (2): γP gives an increase in price due to inflation e ^ γt. The system of equations (2) can be represented as follows: 𝐼 (𝑡 ) 𝑄 0 0−1 ̇ 𝑋 = 𝐴𝑥⃗ + 𝑏 , где 𝑋(𝑡) = (𝑃(𝑡)), 𝑏⃗⃗ = ( 𝛼𝐼 ∗ ), A ( −𝛼 𝛾 0 ) ⃗ ⃗⃗ ⃗ (2) 𝑆 (𝑡 ) 𝛽𝑃∗ 0−𝛽 0 The solution to equation (3) will be sought in the form 𝑋⃗(𝑡) = 𝑋⃗𝑜 (𝑡) + 𝑦⃗, (3) where X ⃗_o (t) is the solution of the equation: 𝑋⃗́0 (𝑡) = 𝐴𝑋⃗0 (𝑡), (4) 𝐼0 ⃗⃗⃗⃗0 (0) = (𝑃0 ). at 𝑋 𝑆0 Substituting equality (4) into equation (3), we obtain the condition for determining y ⃗: ́ ́ 𝑋⃗(𝑡) = 𝑋⃗0 (𝑡) = 𝐴𝑋⃗0 (𝑡) + 𝐴𝑦⃗ + 𝑏⃗⃗ = 𝐴𝑋⃗0 (𝑡), (5) which gives the equation for finding y ⃗: 𝐴𝑦⃗ = −𝑏⃗⃗ . (6) We start by solving equation (5), which can be represented as: 𝐼0 𝑋⃗0 (𝑡) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝐴𝑡} (𝑃0 ). (7) 𝑆0 Represent the exponential form of the formula (7) as a series: 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝐴𝑡} = 𝑎(𝑡)𝟏 + 𝑏(𝑡)𝐴 + 𝑐(𝑡)𝐴2 , (8) here 1 is the block operator. The eigenvalues of the matrix A are found from the equa- tion: 106 −𝜆 0 −1 𝛼 𝛾−𝜆 𝜆 0 | | 0 = 𝐴 − 𝜆𝟏 = | −𝛼 𝛾−𝜆 0 |=| |+𝜆| |= 0 −𝛽 𝛼 𝛾−𝜆 0 −𝛽 −𝜆 =−𝜆3 + 𝛾𝜆2 − 𝛼𝛽 (9) The root of this equation can be represented as an expansion in the parameter γ: 3 𝜆 = −√𝛼𝛽 + 𝜇𝛾 (10) and substitute (10) in equation (9): 3 2 (− 3√𝛼𝛽 + 𝜇𝛾) − (− 3√𝛼𝛽 + 𝜇𝛾) + 𝛼𝛽 = 0 (11) Solving this equation for μ (taking into account the fact that γ has the first order of smallness), we obtain μ = ½ and, therefore, from formula (10) we obtain the expression: 3 1 𝜆 = −√𝛼𝛽 + 2 𝛾. (12) Substituting expressions (11) and (12) into equation (8), differentiating (8), and pre- senting the result of this differentiation concerning the operator A, we obtain: 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝐴𝑡} = 𝑎𝟏 + 𝑏𝐴 + 𝑐𝐴2 { 𝑡𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝐴𝑡} = 𝑏 + 2𝑐𝐴 (13) 𝑡 2 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝐴𝑡} = 2𝑐. Acting on the right and left sides of formulas (13) on any of the eigenvectors of the operator A, we obtain a system of equations for determining the quantities a, b, and c in the system of equations (8): 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝜆 + 𝑐𝜆2 { 𝑡𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} = 𝑏 + 2𝑐𝜆 (14) 𝑡 2 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} = 2𝑐. The system of equations (14) is easily solved: 𝑡2 𝜆2 𝑡 2 𝑐 = 2 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡}, 𝑏 = (𝑡 − 𝜆𝑡 2 )𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡}, 𝑎 = (1 − 𝜆𝑡 + ) 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡}, 2 which gives an expression for the exponent in the formula (8) of the expression: 𝜆2 𝑡 2 𝑡2 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝐴𝑡} = 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} {(1 − 𝜆𝑡 + ) 1 + (𝑡 − 𝜆𝑡 2 )𝐴 + 2 𝐴2 }, (15) 2 which allows us to give the formula (7) of the form: 𝐼0 𝑋⃗0 (𝑡) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝐴𝑡} (𝑃0 ) = 𝑆0 107 𝐼0 𝐼0 𝐼0 𝜆2 𝑡 2 2 ) (𝑃 ) 𝑡2 2 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} {(1 − 𝜆𝑡 + ( 𝑃 ) ( ) 0 + 𝑡 − 𝜆𝑡 𝐴 0 + 2 𝐴 ( 𝑃0 )}, (16) 2 𝑆0 𝑆0 𝑆0 Find a solution to equation (6). Let the vector y ⃗ have the form 𝑦1 𝑦 𝑌 = ( 2 ), then 𝑦3 0 0 −1 𝑦1 −𝑄 A 𝑦⃗ = (𝛼 𝛾 0 ) (𝑦2 )= - 𝑏⃗⃗ = ( −𝛼𝐼 ∗ ). 0 −𝛽 0 𝑦3 −𝛽𝑃∗ From here we get -𝑦3 = −𝑄, -β𝑦2 =-βp*, - 𝛼𝑦1 + 𝛾𝑦2 =-αI*which gives expressions for the components of the vector y ⃗: 𝛾 𝑦1 =I*+𝛼 P*, 𝑦2 =p*, 𝑦3 =Q. 𝛾 𝐼 ∗ + 𝛼 𝑝∗ So, the vector y ⃗ has the form: y ⃗: 𝑦⃗ = ( 𝑝∗ ). 𝑄 Thus, the final solution of equation (3) can be represented: 𝐼 (𝑡 ) 𝑋⃗ (t) = (𝑃 (𝑡)) = 𝑥⃗𝑜(𝑡)+𝑦⃗ = 𝑆 (𝑡 ) 𝛾 𝐼0 𝐼0 𝐼0 𝐼 ∗ + 𝛼 𝑝∗ 𝜆2 𝑡 2 2 𝑡2 2 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} {(1 − 𝜆𝑡 + 2 ) (𝑃0 ) + (𝑡 − 𝜆𝑡 )𝐴 (𝑃0 ) + 2 𝐴 (𝑃0 )}+( 𝑝∗ ) = 𝑆0 𝑆0 𝑆0 𝑄 𝐼0 – 𝑆 0 𝛽𝑃 0 𝜆2 𝑡 2 𝑡2 𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} {(1 − 𝜆𝑡 + 2 ) (𝑃0 ) + (𝑡 − 𝜆𝑡 2 ) (𝛾𝑃0 − 𝛼𝐼0 ) + 2 ( 𝛼𝑆0 + 𝛾 2 𝑃0 − 𝑆0 −𝛽𝑃0 𝛼𝛽𝐼0 − 𝛾𝛽𝑃0 𝛾 𝐼 ∗ + 𝛼 𝑝∗ 𝛼𝛾𝐼0 )} + ( 𝑝∗ ) . (17) 𝑄 The following expressions are used here: 𝐼0 – 𝑆0 𝐼0 𝛽𝑃0 𝐴 (𝑃0 )=(𝛾𝑃0 − 𝛼𝐼0 ) и 𝐴2 (𝑃0 )=( 𝛼𝑆0 + 𝛾 2 𝑃0 − 𝛼𝛾𝐼0 ). 𝑆0 −𝛽𝑃0 𝑆0 𝛼𝛽𝐼0 − 𝛾𝛽𝑃0 The components of a vector (17) give a solution to the problem: 108 𝜆2 𝑡 2 𝑡2 𝛾 I(t)=𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} {(1 − 𝜆𝑡 + ) 𝐼0 − (𝑡 − 𝜆𝑡 2 )𝑆0 + 𝛽 𝑃0 } +𝐼 ∗ + 𝑝∗ ; (18) 2 2 𝛼 𝜆2 𝑡 2 𝑡2 P(t)=𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} {(1 − 𝜆𝑡 + ) 𝑃0 + (𝑡 − 𝜆𝑡 2 )(𝛾𝑃0 − 𝛼𝐼0 ) + 2 (𝛼𝑆0 + 𝛾 2 𝑃0 − 2 𝛼𝛾𝐼0 )}+p*; (19) 𝜆2 𝑡 2 𝑡2 S(t)=𝑒𝑥𝑝{𝜆𝑡} {(1 − 𝜆𝑡 + ) 𝑆0 − 𝛽 (𝑡 − 𝜆𝑡 2 )𝑃0 + 2 (𝛼𝛽𝐼0 − 𝛾𝛽𝑃0 )} + 𝑄 . (20) 2 Formulas (18), (19), and (20) describe the behavior of the functions I(t), P(t), and S(t) depending on the parameters of the problem. The model contains six parameters:: α, β, 𝛾,𝐼 ∗ , p*, Q and three initial values of the variables: : 𝐼0 , 𝑃0 ,𝑆0 .. Since the exponent in formulas (18), (19), and (20) λ is equal to: 1 λ=- 3√𝛼𝛽 + 2 𝛾, (21) moreover, α, β and γ are greater than zero, then if cost inflation is small, namely, the inflation coefficient γ satisfies the condition: 𝛾 <2 3√𝛼𝛽 , (22) then λ <0 and the dynamic quantities I(t), P(t) and S(t) tend to their asymptotic values regardless of the initial conditions: 𝛾 𝑙𝑖𝑚 𝐼 (𝑡) = 𝐼 ∗ + 𝛼 𝑝∗ , 𝑙𝑖𝑚 𝑃(𝑡) =P* и 𝑙𝑖𝑚 𝑆 (𝑡) = 𝑄. (23) 𝑡→∞ 𝑡→∞ 𝑡→∞ 3 Conclusions The interpretation of the results of solving the modernized system of differential equa- tions allows us to draw the following conclusions. After a certain transition process, all dynamic quantities approach their asymptotic values. The zero solution of a homoge- neous system is asymptotically stable. This leads to the fact that with a low level of cost inflation, the homogeneous part of the solution fades with time, and the functions of prices, sales volumes, and stocks of goods will tend to asymptotic values regardless of the initial conditions. Therefore, within the framework of this model, it is possible to maintain the level of stocks of goods at a predetermined level using a flexible mechanism for changing prices. If inflation is high, that is, γ ≥2∛αβ, then this mathematical model becomes unac- ceptable, and we need to move from a system of linear equations (2) to a system of nonlinear equations that refine the mathematical model (2). Foreign and domestic experience shows that many proven recommendations take into account the cost inflation factor, how to use money supply growth to ensure effec- tive growth of the national economy. In particular, this increase may be aimed at in- creasing government spending. 109 Of course, any increase in budget expenditures leads to a multiplicative increase in nominal GDP and the aggregate demand of the population and companies. But there are certain anti-inflation rules: government spending should grow smoothly, given the possibility of using unused production not any budget expenditures are subject to growth, but mainly those that can cause a multiplicative development of production. This includes a state order for prod- ucts, for example, material-intensive and unloaded production. Such a state order directly leads to an increase in production by an amount equal to the volume of the state order, an increase in demand for related products, as well as consumer demand, a revival of investment activity, and an expansion of the tax base. In foreign practice, these rules are applied as “stimulating low inflation” and are known, first of all, thanks to John Maynard Keynes and the experience of overcoming the Great Depression in the USA (1929-1933). Typically, depression was overcome due to an increase in the amount of money in circulation, but it began, according to M. Friedman, due to a decrease in the amount of cash in the United States by a third. The most acceptable recipes for anti-crisis policies are combinations of projects to expand housing construction and infrastructure development (transport, information, etc.). The implementation of such projects can bring the greatest multiplier effect, re- duce overall production costs. These include high-tech projects, primarily in the de- fense sector, followed by the transfer of dual-use technologies to the civilian sector. It is also necessary to ensure future investment growth mainly due to domestic equip- ment and technological lines to protect the national investment sector of machine tools. We emphasize that the growth of investment in 2000-2008. It was accompanied by the accelerated import of foreign equipment. Despite the importance of the credit and fi- nancial sector, services, material, industrial, agricultural production are the basis for the development of economic service sectors (both at the regional, national, and global levels). Therefore, crisis phenomena arise precisely on this basis, for example, due to a decrease in the efficiency of the material sector. This means that anti-crisis policy should be aimed, first of all, at transforming real production. According to R. Harrod, a classic of growth theory, there is another important reason for the anti-inflationary impact of government orders during the crisis period. “If the aggregate demand in the economy is less than the supply potential, a demand reduction will increase unit costs and contribute to price inflation. Conversely, increased demand helps lower unit costs, as the curve drops as you approach the optimal output point on the left. ” Thus, investments in high-tech projects with long payback periods bring a long-term effect, increase aggregate demand, but do not provide a sharp development of produc- tion and expansion of the tax base. Projects with extremely quick returns include in- vestments in projects that provide, in a short time, an increase in export deliveries and the production of consumer goods (for example, food, clothing) with a quick return on cash. The task of a specific investment state and regional investment policy is to deter- mine the proportions between these types of projects. 110 References 1. Hidalgo C.A., Hausmann R. The building blocks of economic complexity // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2009. No 106(26). Pp. 10570-10575. DOI: 10.1073 / pnas.0900943106 2. Hausmann R., Hidalgo C., Bustos S., Coscia M., Simoes A., Yildirim M.A. (2011). The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity. Cambridge: Center for International Development, Harvard University, MIT. Pp. 108-358. DOI: 10.7551/mit- press/9647.001.0001 3. Erkan B., Yildirimci E. Economic Complexity and Export Competitiveness: The Case of Turkey // Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences. 2015. Vol. 195. July 2015. Pp. 524- 533. DOI: 10.1016 / j. sbspro.2015.06.262 4. Hartmann D., Guevara M.R., Jara-Figueroa C., Aristarán M. & Hidalgo C.A. (2017). Link- ing Economic Complexity, Institutions, and Income Inequality // World Development. 2017. Vol. 93. May 2017. Pp. 75-93. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.12.020 5. Grossman GM, Helpman E (1991). Quality ladders in the theory of growth. Rev Econ- Stud58:43–61.4. DOI: 10.2307/2298044 6. Hidalgo C.A., Klinger B., Barabasi A.-L., & Hausmann R. The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations // Science. Jul. 2007. Vol. 317, issue 5837. Pp. 482-487. DOI: 10.1126/science.1144581 7. Dorofeeva A. A. and Nyurenberger L.B. Marketing strategies ensuring the competitiveness of enterprises in the trading sphere/ Proceedings of the 1st International Scientific Confer- ence "Modern Management Trends and the Digital Economy: from Regional Development to Global Economic Growth" (MTDE 2019) DOI https://doi.org/10.2991/mtde-19.2019.98. 8. Kazak A. N., Lukyanova Ye. Yu., Chetyrbok P. V. One of the region of the southern federal district touristy flows dynamics modelling // IEEE II International Conference on Control in Technical Systems (Saint-Petersburg: Saint Petersburg Electrotechnical University 'LETI') pp 103–108 DOI: 10.1109 / CTSYS.2017.8109500 9. Penny Mealy, J. Farmer Doyne, Teytelboym A. A new interpretation of the economic com- plexity index, Economics of Sustain-ability & Complexity Economics Programmes INET Oxford // Working Paper. 4-th February 2018. No 2018-04. 10. Aghion P, Howitt PW(1998)Endogenous Growth Theory(MIT Press, Cambridge, MA) 11. Barro RJ, Sala-i-Martin X(2003)Economic Growth(MIT Press, Cambridge, MA) 12. Hirschman AO (1958) The Strategy of Economic Development(Yale Univ Press, NewHa- ven, CT). 13. Box G. E. P. and G. M. Jenkins and G. C. Reinsel (1994): Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, Pearson Education, Singapore 14. Friedman B. M. and Hahn F. H. (eds.) (1998) Handbook of Monetary Economics, Volumes. 1 and 2, NBER 15. Faraglia, E.; Marcet, A.; Oikonomou, R.; Scott, A. The impact of debt levels and debt ma- turity on inflation. Econ. J.2013, 123, F164–F192. 16. Catão, L.A.V.; Terrones, M.E. Fiscal deficits and inflation. J. Monet. Econ.2005, 52, 529– 554. 17. Sargent, T.J.; Wallace, N. Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy. Ration. Expect. Econom.Pract.1981,1, 199–214. 18. Fisher, I. The Purchasing Power of Money: Its’ Determination and Relation to Credit Interest and Crises; Cosimo, Inc.: New York, NY, USA, 2006. 19. Aisen, A.; Veiga, F.J. Political instability and inflation volatility. Public choice2008, 135, 207–223.