The Information Technology Use for Studying the Impact of the Project Environment on the Timelines of the Crops Harvesting Projects Pavlo Luba, Vitaliy Pukasb, Andriy Sharyburaa, Roman Chubyka, Olga Lysiuka a Lviv National Agrarian University, str. V. Velykogo, 1, Dublyany, 80381, Ukraine b Podilsk State Agrarian-Technical University, str. Shevchenka, 13, Kamyanets-Podilsk, 32316, Ukraine Abstract The influence of the project’s environment on the start-up time and duration of works in sugar beets harvesting projects is characterized. The main attention is paid to the agrometeorological and subject-biological components of the project environment. The usage necessity of statistical simulation modelling methods for the features consideration of the project environment influence on works timelines in projects is substantiated. The main requirements for the statistical simulation model of harvesting projects are given. The main indicators that should be taken into account in the statistical simulation model of projects to establish the characteristics of the natural time of project start-up and duration of work are revealed, as well as assess their overall impact on the value of these projects. The main stages of the impact study of the project environment and substantiation of management decisions in crop harvesting projects are identified. The results of computer experiments with a statistical simulation model of crop harvesting projects according to the impact of the project environment on the work timing in these projects are processed and summarized. The distribution of naturally determined time of sugar beet harvesting projects start-ups with a different planned duration of their implementation has been established. The regularity of change of mathematical expectation estimations of naturally caused works duration in projects is given and this indicator is compared with their planned duration. The distribution of naturally determined works duration in harvesting projects with different planned value is substantiated. The differential functions of distribution and statistical characteristics estimation of naturally determined works duration are given. On the example of the task of the impact consideration of project environment on the timing of the works was proved a relevance the risk management task in crop harvesting projects. The development necessity of automated decision support systems is also confirmed. Keywords 1 Project environment, Observations, IT, mathematical methods of statistics, Modelling, Support of management decisions, Start-up time, Project, Efficiency. 1. Introduction A significant part of projects in agricultural production requires consideration of the impact of the project environment. The project environment is external influences that can change the outcome of the project compared to its planned value [17, 19]. Such components of the project environment of crop harvesting (CH) technological systems projects of agricultural crops include agrometeorological conditions and the reached yield [7, 14, 15]. The continuity and variability over time of these natural processes leads to the risk of the effectiveness of CH projects and the occurrence of losses. Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop IT Project Management (ITPM 2021), February 16-18, 2021, Slavsko, Lviv region, Ukraine EMAIL: pollylub@ukr.net (A. 1); pukas.ivanna@gmail.com (B. 1); ascharibura@gmail.com (A. 2); r.chubyk@gmail.com (A. 3); data_2008@ukr.net (A. 4) ORCID: 0000-0001-9600-0969 (A. 1); 0000-0002-0083-7359 (В. 1); 0000-0001-7329-8774 (A. 2); 0000-0003-1974-2736 (A. 3); 0000- 0001-5121-359X (A. 4) ©️ 2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org) Accordingly, to determine the startup time and completion of CH projects, it is necessary to take into account the patterns of change of the projects environment, which will ensure their implementation with the highest indexes’ of value [5, 15, 27]. Undoubtedly, such scientific and applied tasks are related to management and require the use of specific methods and models for their solution [2, 3, 25], and the use and processing of significant amounts of characteristics data of the project environment with information technology (IT) using. Thus, the implementation of CH projects requires solving a scientific and applied problem to improve the efficiency of relevant management processes by taking into account the impact of the project environment on the timing of their implementation and the value of projects in general. The solution of these problems requires the creation and use of specific methods and models of project management. Their construction requires a synergistic combination of different areas of knowledge – management, operational-subject, technological, mathematical statistics, simulation and IT. 2. Analysis of Recent Research and Publications Time management tasks in projects have long been the subject of research in various fields of industrial production [12, 20, 23] and the national economy [3, 28-30]. In the field of agriculture, many scientific works are devoted to this task [1, 3, 14, 15, 27], based on a systems approach, use methods of mathematical statistics [6] and statistical simulation using IT [8, 9, 11, 16, 21]. Known works in which the tasks of project management for the development of technological systems involve the justification of rational parameters of specialized machines complexes in accordance with the planned scope of work and the natural timing of projects [1, 14]. In particular, the configuration and content of agricultural projects are substantiating by the cost criterion – the minimum unit cost. To do this, evaluate the rationality of decisions on project management – the consistency impact of project start-up time (start of work), configuration and content on the work timeliness and economic indicators of value (efficiency). The analysis of these works convinces of the need for a deeper study of management decisions on the coordination of project start-up time, content and duration of work, as well as the configuration of projects (technical equipment). The aim of the research is to reveal scientific and methodical provisions and results of research of objective components influence of the projects environment on the time of start-up and works duration in agricultural crops harvesting projects. 2.1. Results of Research Implementation of СH projects is based on the well-known project management processes, and also requires consideration of the impact of the project environment (rate of harvest, agrometeorological conditions), content (scope of work) and configuration (technical support, contractors) of projects. Therefore, the determination of the start time (τз) (calendar day) of СH projects should be performed taking into account that the terms of their completion (τк) coincide with the corresponding agro-technical terms [27]. In particular, such terms of completion of sugar beet СH projects are due to the correspondence between their content and configuration, as well as the impact of the project environment – harvest, continuous change of soil (its physical maturity) in autumn and the impact of agrometeorological conditions [27, 28]. Then the project will be considered in time, and the time of its launch will be rational. Note that the completion time (τф) of the soil’s physical maturity reflects the production situation in which work in the sugar beet harvesting projects are stopped (due to the beginning of winter), the crop is lost, and the value of projects decreases. The development of such methods and models of СH project management, which allow to take into account the peculiarities of the project environment (with probabilistic components) on the indicators of the value of their implementation requires the use of appropriate databases and knowledge, statistical simulation methods [9, 10, 13], information technology (IT) and generalization of the results of computer experiments (Figure 1). On this basis, there is an opportunity to justify management decisions to improve the efficiency of project management processes, the development of concepts for the coordination of projects components for the development of agricultural production and their value in general. Substantiation of Observation and IT and management database formation Project Modelling decisions Project The value of CH environment Project CH projects Figure 1: The main stages of the study of the project environment impact and substantiation of management decisions in the CH projects To determine τз it is necessary to have a database on τф, as well as to know the duration of work (tр) in СH projects: =p   S =1 n (1) tp = , Wд where Snγ – the area of the γ-th field, which forms the content of the СH projects with р-th their total number, hа; Wд - daily rate of works in СH projects, ha/day. Thus, the start time τз of the СH projects must be determined so that all work is completed before the event τф, then the equality – τк = τф will be ensured. Abstracting from the influence of the agrometeorological component of the project environment τз can be defined ideally as the time difference between the calendar day τф and the duration of work tр. However, in production conditions, the time of completion of τк projects of СH is characterized by the probability due to the influence of agrometeorological component: τк = f(τз, Wд, Sn, Σtн). (2) where Σtн – the total duration of non-rainy intervals during the implementation of projects, days. Information on Σtн can be obtained from official data of agrometeorological stations [1]. The probable character of the CH projects completion time τк complicates its accurate forecasting. Therefore, for any planned (defined) time of launch τз of projects there is only a certain probability that specialized works will be completed at the moment τф and the condition – τк=τф will be fulfilled. This feature of CH projects is due to the probabilistic influence of the project environment – agrometeorological allowed fund time for the implementation of works in projects. The objective reason for such stochasticity is also the influence of non-rainy intervals (tн), which leads to an increase in the duration tр of the corresponding works in the projects and the risk of their timeliness. Occurrence of non-rainy intervals tн presupposes the need to shift the start time τз of CH projects at an earlier date by the total duration of non-rainy intervals – Σtн. Accordingly, the actual duration tр of work in CH projects will increase in direct proportion, which reflects the objective need to develop methods and models for content and time management in these projects. It should be mentioned that the daily rate of works Wд in CH projects is also characterized by variability. These rates are determined by the productivity of beet harvesters [18, 22, 26], as well as organizational and technological forms of relevant work [1, 14, 15, 27]. Seeing that the productivity of the beet harvester depends on the fields and the state of the crop grown characteristics, the pace of work in the projects of CH will be variable. As for the state of the grown crop, in particular sugar beets, this state changes objectively and not only before the launch of the CH projects but also during their implementation. The pattern of changes in this project environment component state is characteristic of each individual field Snγ, which is included in the content of the CH projects. At the time of their launch, this state is different. Knowledge of the regularity of its change to the event τз as well as its significance at the time of τз allows you to predict this state (yield) for any time of work in these projects [7]. The ability to predict this condition is the basis for assessing potential losses from premature or untimely work. If they are performed prematurely, losses will occur due to a shortage of potential yield [7], which could grow to τф [27]. In the case when works in CH projects are performed late (before the onset of frost, or τф) part of the area with the achieved harvest of sugar beets remains unharvested, and therefore the crop grown on them is lost completely. The possibility of estimating crop losses due to premature and untimely execution of works makes it possible to assess the risks of CH projects, and thus justify management actions to minimize them. This is achieved through knowledge of the patterns of change in the state of the biological component (sugar beet harvest) of the project environment during the relevant calendar period. Having data on the timeliness of work in the CH projects there is a possibility of cost estimation of crop costs due to their early or undeveloped implementation. To assess (forecast) these costs, it is necessary to know the number of crop losses, their market value, material and technical costs, as well as the cost of time to work on these projects. Cost estimation is performed according to known methods [24]. Quantitative assessment of the timeliness of work in the CH projects with the appropriate technical support is carried out on the basis of modelling the impact of agrometeorological and subject- biological components of the project environment on the course of work in these projects. Given the probabilistic nature of many components, the model of CH projects should be statistical and simulation [9, 10, 13], which would reproduce the features of their interaction. It is the repeated (iterative) reproduction of works in projects that makes it possible to reflect and take into account the probabilistic components and determine the estimates of statistical characteristics [6] of the main indicators of the CH projects value. Considering the key points of statistical simulation, which allow determining the number of works in the CH projects. Generating in the calendar time model (τф) the completion of the physical maturity of the soil (or the occurrence of frosts in the autumn-winter period) at which work in the projects of CH is completed allows you to set an "extreme point" to record the timeliness of work. For each iteration of the model, the value of τф allows setting CH τз. To do this, determine the duration of tр in projects. Under favourable agrometeorological conditions (tн = 0 days) the duration of tр is found by formula (1). For this purpose, the daily rate (Wд) of works in CH projects for the γ-th field is determined, which depends on many factors: 1) configuration (Кγ) and relief (ργ) of the field; 2) yield of sugar beets (Uγ); 3) technical support of CH projects (Тн); 4) organizational and technological forms of their implementation (TЛ); 5) the daily duration of harvesting (tд): Wдγ = f(Kγ, ργ, Uγ, Tн, TЛ, tд). (3) Without resorting to the methodological principles of determining (forecasting) the daily rate of work Wд for many fields with sugar beet harvest [18, 22, 26], note that the value of Wд is taken as the average for all fields and is determined by statistical simulation modelling of project-technological works. The availability of statistical models of τф, tн and clear intervals (tп) for the autumn-winter period, as well as knowledge of the daily rate Wд of works is the main database for statistical simulation of sugar beet projects and forecasting of terms τз. In particular, the start time τз of projects for a known value of τф, in this case, will be determined by the formula:  зi =  фі − (t р +  tн ). i іj (4) j where і, j – the indices of the multiplicity of the implementation of CH projects in the model and the values of the non-rainy period of the autumn-winter period. Thus, the analysis of the preconditions for the formation of the start time τз of the CH projects shows that for a constant duration tр is determined by three probabilistic components – the time of completion τф physical maturity of the soil, as well as the duration of non-rainy (tп) and rainy (tн) intervals. Given this, the "scatter" of the values of the probabilistic value of τз will be larger compared to the values  ф [25]. This means that the risk of making an incorrect decision on the start time τз of CH projects increases compared to the accuracy of forecasting the time of completion τф of physical maturity of the soil in the autumn-winter period. Taking into account the impact of the agrometeorological component on the work in the CH projects makes it possible to objectively establish the statistical change patterns in their functional indicators of efficiency. In particular, to take into account the impact of this component of the project environment, the relevant observational data were collected, systematized and processed. Based on the processing of observation reports (TСХ-1, KM-1) of the Volodymyr-Volyn meteorological station on the condition of the upper layers (0-2, 2-10 cm) of the soil (for the period of 45 years – 1971- 2016), time and volume of precipitation rain (for 16 years – 2000-2016) formed empirical data (for the calendar period from September 1 to November 30): 1) the duration of the naturally allowed daily fund of time to perform work in the СН projects; 2) the duration of the naturally allowed time fund for these works during the autumn period; 3) the time of rain in the context of the day. Empirical data are processed by known methods of mathematical statistics [6], as a result the theoretical distributions of probabilistic quantities are substantiated. The obtained statistical regularities are the basis for the reflection of the simulation model of the project environment impact on the timeliness of work in virtual projects of CH [13]. Thus, the method of performing production observations on the impact of agrometeorological and biological-subject components of the project environment is based on the results of specially organized observations of the meteorological station. On this basis, a retrospective set of indicators was obtained and their mathematical processing was performed, which made it possible to form an exhaustive list of statistical regularities to take into account time constraints on work in CH projects in their statistical simulation model. The method of works modeling in projects is to reflect the impact of natural processes on the timing of their implementation, as well as to reflect the daily course of beet harvesting [18, 22, 26], which are performed adaptively to the continuous growth of sugar beetroots, their maturation, and physical maturity under the stochastic influence of agronomic conditions autumn period. It is well known that due to such a biological feature of sugar beet root formation as an increase in their weight and sugar content in the autumn, it is quite economically motivated to harvest at the latest calendar dates [27]. However, due to the stochasticity of agrometeorological conditions, the timeliness of work in CH projects will be characterized by risk [15]. That is why the time fund for the implementation of these works must be coordinated with natural processes, to perform simulation modelling of the impact of the project environment on the value of CH projects, to use the appropriate database and IT. To reveal the relationship between the duration tр of the work in the projects and the natural time of their beginning (  зп ), as well as to assess the risk  зп , we performed a statistical simulation of the development of weather conditions in the autumn. In particular,  зп it was determined for four variants of the planned duration of tр – 5, 10, 15 and 20 days (Figure 2). The analysis of distributions indicates of the  зп a significant variation of this probabilistic value, which is 60 days. Accordingly, in practice it is quite difficult to accurately predict τз at which work in the CH projects will be performed with the provision of the condition – τк = τф. This feature of the impact of the project environment determines the significant relevance of risk management tasks in CH projects and the development of automated decision support systems. It should also be noted that due to the influence of non-rainy intervals, the duration of tр will increase. This impact of the project environment also increases the probability of losses in CH projects. Our computer experiments made it possible to establish the influence of the agrometeorological component of the project environment on the "extension" of the duration of work tр in projects compared to their planned value (Figure 3). The obtained regularity of mathematical expectation estimates M [t пp ] for different tр in CH projects (Figure 3) confirms the hypothesis that for relatively large values of tр duration the influence of agrometeorological component of the project environment on the timeliness of work will be more negative. This phenomenon also causes a downtime of technical support at rainy intervals and affects the risk of timely work in projects. In particular, the value of the correlation coefficient – r = 0.999 states a close relationship between M [t пp ] and tр. It is also established (Figure 4) that the increase in the planned duration tr leads to an increase in the scatter of the probabilistic quantity t pп . 0.30 M [ з.15 п ] =284 day; (tр=15 days) M [ з.10 п ] =291 day; (tр=10 days) M [ з.20 п ] =276 day; (tр=20 days) M [ з.5 п ] =299 day; (tр=5 days) 0.25 0.20 Frequency, Рі 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 Calendar terms d, days Figure 2: Distribution of naturally determined time of sugar beet harvesting projects start-up with different planned duration of their implementation: M [ з.5 п ], M [ з.10 п ], M [ з.15 п ], M [ з.20 п ] – the estimation of the naturally determined time mathematical expectation of the CH projects start-up for different (5,10,15 and 20 days) planned (tр) their implementation 45 Estimates of mathematical expectation of naturally 40 determined duration of works М[tпр], days M [tpп ] = 1.5238∙tр - 0.9413 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 15 0 20 5 25 30 Planned duration of works tр, days Figure 3: Regularity of estimations of mathematical expectation of naturally caused duration ( M [tpп ] ) of works in СH projects (in comparison with its planned value) In particular, the study of the results of statistical simulation relatively t pп , allowed to establish that their empirical distributions are consistent with the theoretical law of Weibull distribution. 0.45 1 0.40 0.35 2 0.30 3 4 Frequency, Рі 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 п Naturally determined duration of work t , days зб Figure 4: Distribution of naturally determined duration ( t pп ) of works in СH projects with different planned value (tр): 1 – 5 days; 2 – 10 days; 3 – 15 days; 4 – 20 days Table 1 Differential functions of distribution and estimation of statistical characteristics of naturally caused duration of works implementation in CH projects Estimates of statistical Planned characteristics Differential distribution function duration of M [tpп ] (Weibull) works tр, days , [tpп ] day  tp.5 п −5 0,079   t п − 5 1,079  f (t ) = 0,498   п  exp −    2,169   2,169   p.5 5 7,12 0,939  p.5        tp.10 п − 10  0,154   t п − 10 1,154  10 f (t п ) = 0,258   4,472  exp − p.10   14,27 0,879   p.10   4,472    tp.15 п −15  0,451   t п −15 1,451  15 f (t п ) = 0,19   7,624  exp − p.15   21,91 0,698   p.15   7,624    tp.20 п − 21  0,528   t п − 21 1,528  20 f (t п ) = 0,161  9,492  exp −  p.20   29,55 0,664   p.20   9,492   The obtained data sets were processed by the methods of mathematical statistics, which together with the application of Pearson's χ2 criterion made it possible to substantiate the differential distribution functions t pп (Table 1). Thus, taking into account the impact of the project environment (agrometeorological and subject-biological components) on the start-up and end dates of work in the CH projects plays an important role in assessing the risk of their timeliness. On this basis, the risk of losses in projects, the consistency of the start time, production area and parameters of technical support of projects is assessed, and then their value is determined. The generalization of tasks for the CH projects convinces that agricultural enterprises are interested in starting their implementation in the late calendar period at which the crop yield is maximum, as well as to perform of projects work in the shortest possible time. However, shifting project start times to late calendar periods increases the likelihood of delays in harvesting, frost damage to root crops, and reduced the project efficiency. Simultaneously, reducing the duration of work in these projects requires powerful technical support and leads to significant costs [24]. To solve this problem, it is necessary to reconcile the start up time of project and the culture production area with the technical support parameters of the respective projects. However, the choice of CH projects start up time with a known duration of work will allow to ensure their timeliness only with a certain level of probability. If the work is performed for a long time, there will objectively be a larger "scatter" of the distribution values of the naturally determined time of project start (Figure 4). This indicates that ensuring the timeliness of work in projects will be less likely, and thus increase the likelihood of losses and reduce the value of projects. Disclosure of the methodology of taking into account the impact of the project environment at the start up time of CH projects is aimed at identifying the criteria and function of the goal, as well as defining requirements for modelling techniques and establishing statistical patterns of functional indicators of relevant projects. The establishment of these patterns is the basis for testing the hypothesis that improving the efficiency of project management can be achieved by coordinating the interaction of its components, in particular, on the criterion of minimum specific total cost. The combined impact of agrometeorological and biological-subject components of the project environment of the СH is characterized by stochasticity and objectively forms the naturally determined terms of its implementation. Taking into account of this feature makes it possible to assess the timeliness of the relevant work in the projects for a given area of sugar beet and technical support. Substantiated distributions and statistical regularities of influence of agrometeorological and biological-subject components allow to reflect objectively a course of works in projects of CH in their statistical simulation model. The development of this model and the performance of computer experiments make it possible to obtain functional indicators of the efficiency of the relevant work, and thus to reconcile the time of their beginning and the production area of sugar beets with the parameters of technical support. 2.2. Conclusions and Prospects of Further Researches The objectives specificity of the study necessitates a combination of production observations and computer experiments, which are aimed at system-event reflection of the impact of agrometeorological and biological-subject components of the project environment of CH on the timeliness of their implementation. Uncontrollability and stochasticity of basic events that affect the course of work, necessitate the consideration of functional indicators in probabilistic terms. The development of methods and models of CH project management that allow to take into account the probabilistic components of the project environment requires the use of appropriate databases and knowledge, methods of statistical simulation, IT, computer experiments and generalization of their results. This makes it possible to decisions substantiate for the efficiency increase of projects management, as well as to form programs for the development of technological systems for harvesting crops. The use of IT in the study of the project environment impact on the start-up time and duration of work in the projects of CH allows performing statistical simulation of these works and obtaining objective results of computer experiments. On this basis, establish patterns of change in the value of projects with the appropriate technical support (configuration), start-up time and crop harvesting area (content). The analysis of the established distributions of the naturally conditioned time of start-up of CH projects indicates a significant variation of this probabilistic value (60 days) (Figure 2). Therefore, in practice it is quite difficult to predict the time of project launch at which the relevant work will be performed on time. This feature of the project environment impact, determines the significant relevance of risk management tasks in СH projects and the development of automated decision support systems. Due to the influence of the project environment, there is also a risk of the duration of work increasing in CH projects and increasing the likelihood of losses. Our computer experiments allowed us to establish the influence of the projects environment on the "extension" of the duration of work compared to its planned value (Figure 3). For a relatively longer planned duration of works, the impact of the project environment on the timeliness of work in the CH projects will be more negative. In particular, the study of the results of statistical simulation on the variability of the natural work duration in the projects of CH, allowed establishing (Figure 4) that their empirical distributions are consistent with the theoretical Weibull distribution law (Table 1). The choice of CH projects start up time with a known duration of work will allow to ensure their timeliness only with a certain level of probability. If the work is performed for a long time, there will objectively be a larger "scatter" of the distribution values of the naturally determined time of project start (Figure 4). 3. Acknowledgements All studies were performed on a self-financing basis, with the non-commercial assistance of the agrometeorological monitoring station and with the support of researchers. The research and results presented in the materials of the article are performed and summarized in co-authorship of several people. In particular, the collection and processing of agrometeorological data for the conditions of the Volodymyr-Volyn region of the Volyn region was performed by co-authors Lub P.M. and Pukas V.L. The formation of the database and its processing by methods of mathematical statistics was performed by Sharybura A.O. and Lysiuk O.V. The creation of a statistical simulation model of weather conditions that affect the technological processes of sugar beets harvesting in the autumn, thanks to the joint work of Lub P.M., Pukas V.L. and Chubyk R.V. They also performed statistical simulation, summarized the results and formulated conclusions. Processing of simulation results was also carried out by Sharybura A.O. and Lysiuk O.V. We thank the meteorological station located in Volodymyr-Volynskyi, Volyn region for cooperation, clarity and systematization in providing access to the results of observations of agrometeorological processes and the achievement of crop yields. Thanks also to Lviv National Agrarian University for providing technical equipment and research laboratories to develop the program code of the statistical imitation model of virtual CH projects and performing computer experiments. 4. References [1] A. M. Polovyi, L. Yu. Bozhko, O. V. Volvach, Fundamentals of agrometeorology: Textbook. Odessa State Ecological University. Odessa: TES, 2012. [2] A. Tryhuba, M. Rudynets, N. Pavlikha, I. Tryhuba, I. Kytsyuk, O. Korneliuk, V. Fedorchuk- Moroz, I. Androshchuk, I. Skorokhod, D. Seleznov. Establishing patterns of change in the indicators of using milk processing shops at a community territory. 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