=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2851/paper36
|storemode=property
|title=Emotional Behavior in the “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic” modeling COVID-19
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2851/paper36.pdf
|volume=Vol-2851
|authors=Sergey Bushuyev,Igbal Babayev,Denis Bushuiev,Natalia Bushuyeva,Jahid Babayev
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/itpm/BushuyevBBBB21
}}
==Emotional Behavior in the “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic” modeling COVID-19==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2851/paper36.pdf
Emotional Behavior in the “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs.
Pandemic” modeling COVID-19
Sergey Bushuyevа, Igbal Babayevb, Denis Bushuieva, Natalia Bushuyevaa, Jahid Babayeva
a
Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Povitroflotsky
Avenue, 31, 03680 Kyiv, Ukraine
b
Azerbaijan Project Management Association, City Point Business Center Jalil Mammadguluzade str., 102A,
Baku, AZ1078, Azerbaijan
Abstract
The article deals with the problems of emotional behavior in the “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic
vs. Pandemic” modeling COVID-19. In the process of managing COVID-19 projects,
managers try to model creative behavior and are based on creative technologies. Emotional
behavior is considered as a social and psychological mechanism of transferring the mental
mood of the manager to other stakeholders of the COVID-19 projects, emotional impact in
the face of direct contact, and the inclusion of the individual in certain mental states that
affect the effectiveness of management. The main object of modeling is to simulate
managers’ behaviors, educate and create new behavior in panicdemic, deadly and aggressive
external conditions. In times of crisis, the emotional behavior of the project manager and his
infection with the project team is exacerbated by external uncertainty. The stakeholder
infection model is based on an understanding of the life cycle of the project manager, which
is presented as a curve for personal changes of the manager of innovative projects and
programs. Emotions are considered in content, reflecting the various aspects and meanings
that caused them. To apply the psychophysiological formula for assessing the impact of the
emotional state of the stakeholders of innovative projects, these influences have been
transformed into a competent model “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic” COVID-19
for managing health projects. Examples of changes in the competence of the manager and the
project team in the case of a wall and asthenic emotions are given.
Keywords 1
Emotional infection, COVID-19, pandemic, infodemic, panicdemic, modeling, stakeholders
1. Introduction
The vast majority of human-created technologies are based on the imitation and copying of various
natural processes and phenomena. Modern technologies and projects are no exception. In
management processes, teams try to model the creative behavior of managers and build on the deep
historical traditions of different cultures. Previously, the main subject of various innovative
technologies was a separate manager or group. The task was to educate and create the organization of
new behavior in adverse, deadly, and turbulence external conditions. Due to the rapid development of
information technologies, a new association has emerged, which is to use computer systems and
networks more deeply in innovative activities: artificial intelligence systems, cloud technic, databases,
big data processing, and emotional intelligence [1, 2]. The trend of such penetration is growing and
expanding, so there is a need for a new organization of innovative behaviors with broad involvement
of information technology and management of a complex system like “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs.
Pandemic COVID-19” [14, 18].
Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop IT Project Management (ITPM 2021), February 16-18, 2021, Slavsko, Lviv region, Ukraine
EMAIL: sbushuyev@ukr.net; igbalbabayev@gmail.com; bushuievd@gmail.com; natbush@ukr.net; babayevjahid@gmail.com
ORCID: 0000-0002-7815-8129 (A. 1); 0000-0002-1787-7859 (A. 2); 0000-0001-5340-5165 (A. 3); 0000-0002-4969-7879 (A. 4); 0000-
0003-4633-8261 (А. 5);
©️ 2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
Creatively, innovative thinking is the most valuable, open-ended part of human thinking that
manifests itself in the form of certain emotions and behaviors. The health of creative thinking is a
delicate balance between the order and the chaos of stakeholder behavior. Behavior in the case of
COVID-19 is often manifested through a variety of emotions. Scientific advances in this field are
limited and far from complete, but at the same time, several common features inherent in this process
and the behavior of innovative project managers can be distinguished. The mission is defined as the
result to which the decisions of managers are directed. The goals are arranged in a certain sequence,
which regulates the rational and emotional behaviors of the manager. As soon as one of them is
reached, a new one arises, and so on until the mission is reached. Each step towards the mission has a
local purpose. Therefore, thinking can rationally organize (profile) the mission. Such an organization
serves to manage actions in a complex project like managing “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs.
Pandemic COVID-19”. Many goals and stages of their achievement are profiled in the form of a
graph having the structure of a tree. The behavior of a modern project manager is organized in such a
way that thinking is the cause, and action is the consequence (think first, then do it), though it is often
the other way around. The peculiarity and a priori uncertainty of the innovation goal is its new
quality. In turn, the innovative qualities of the purpose of the concept are relative and depend on
subjective evaluation, experience, erudition, emotional intelligence, the benevolence of expertise,
public recognition.
2. Statement of the research problem
The paper examines the model of emotional behavior of stakeholders into “Infodemic vs.
Panicdemic vs. Pandemic system COVID-19” in a crisis and uncertain environment.
The purpose of the article is to formulate a model of emotional behaviors of stakeholders of
complex projects and programs in a crisis and uncertainty to form rational structures and management
processes in COVID-19 circumstances.
3. Emotional behavior into a complex system with a high level of uncertainty
In our environment, besides us, there are a huge number of those whom we do not see - that is.
There is a certain micro-world around us. This microcosm has its hierarchy and hierarchical structure
of subordination. The one who heads the hierarchical structure forms the Risk Shell. Let's define the
basic term of our research.
Pandemic - information about the existence of danger in society, i.e. great risk in society.
Information - activates the mind in a person and based on which a decision is made.
Infodemia - forms a public opinion about the existence of risk, its level, and consequences.
Individual knowledge is formed for everyone. There is an exchange of knowledge between people
and "Information Shell", the so-called infodemia is formed in society.
Panic - Disables the individual's immune system. "Infodemia" forms a “Panikdemia" in society.
Public Immune System is the combining all human immunities into one.
Reason of activates individual immunity and turns on the anti-risk social immune system, or the
individual's brain cannot make a decision and automatically shuts itself off. At the same time, Panic
turns on, and as a result; the "Panic shell of the individual" is formed.
Let’s introduce some postulates for system modeling “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic
COVID-19”.
The risks in society during a Pandemic are assessed taking into account the parameters of the
Public Immune System, such as strength, power, resilience, etc. The weaker level of the «Public
immune system» defines higher risk in the society.
The "public immune system" is formed based on "Everyone's immune system." The more cohesive
and stable the "Human immune system" defines the higher the level capacity of the "Public immune
system".
The strength and resilience of the "Public Immune System" (PIS) are reliable versus Pandemia.
Increasing Panicdemic with the weak of the Public Immune System is the key threat for society.
Strength of Panicdemic versus proportional to Infordemia.
Then not correct and not an extensive shell of Infodemia, the more severe Panicdemia, or vice
versa. Emotional infestation is a social and psychological mechanism of transfer of mental mood to
other people from one person or group of people, emotional influence in the conditions of direct
contact, and inclusion of a person in a certain mental environment of projects.
Emotional contamination on the governance level occurs in large open spaces, especially in
unorganized communities, for example, in a crowd that can spread certain emotional states quickly.
Most often, these conditions can be markedly enhanced by multiple reflections in the chain reaction
scheme with risks and opportunities. However, unlike cognitive chain reactions, the emotional
transmission is less conscious and more automatic.
Emotions are different in content, reflecting different aspects of the significance of their situations.
To apply the psychophysiological formula for assessing the impact of the emotional state of the
stakeholders of innovative projects, we transform these influences into a competent dream model of
managing innovative projects based on the risks and opportunities.
Analytical models of infection date back to prototypes developed since the 19th century to study
epidemics among humans. The transfer (more precisely, copying) of the value of this attribute from
one essence of the world to another and corresponds to the infection operation with I - the type of
infection like Coronavirus. Moreover, the concept of “infection” has a wide meaning.
The SEIR/SEIRS diagram below shows how individuals move through each compartment in the
model. The dashed line shows how the SEIR model becomes an SEIRS (Susceptible - Exposed -
Infectious - Recovered - Susceptible) model (fig. 1), where recovered people may become susceptible
again (recovery does not confer lifelong immunity). The infectious rate, , controls the rate of spread
which represents the probability of transmitting disease between a susceptible and an infectious
individual. The incubation rate is the rate of latent individuals becoming infectious (average
duration of incubation is 1/ ). Recovery rate, = 1/D, is determined by the average duration, D, of
infection. The SEIRS model is the rate at which recovered individuals return to the susceptible
statue due to loss of immunity [4].
Figure 1: The SEIRS (Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered - Susceptible) model
Infodemic model infected society by truth and fakes takes place in the global information space.
Truth and fakes can have a positive or negative impact on the emotional status of society and projects.
Infodemic processes are going faster as pandemic and interrelated between. The influence of the
Infodemic model on SEIRS model presented the next differentiation equations.
, (1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Where is the impact of Infodemic processes to susceptible population, based on the “panic”;
- is the impact of Infodemic processes to expose of infection, based on the decreased immunity
according to the emotional status of the population;
- is the impact of Infodemic processes on infection, based on the decreased immunity according
to the emotional status of the population;
- is the impact of Infodemic processes on recovered population, based on the decreased
immunity according to the emotional status.
is the impact of Panicdemic processes on susceptible population, based on the "panic";
- is the impact of Panicdemic processes to expose of infection, based on the decreased immunity
according to the emotional status of the population;
- is the impact of Panicdemic processes on infection, based on the decreased immunity
according to the emotional status of the population;
- is the impact of Panicdemic processes on recovered population, based on the decreased
immunity according to the emotional status.
In the study of the emotional behaviors of the processes of managing complex projects recognition
was created by the psychophysiology PV Simonov [5] formula, in a short symbolic form represents a
set of factors that affect the emergence and nature of the effects of emotions.
(5)
where – emotion, its degree, quality, and impact;
– the power and influence of the actual need;
– assessment of the possibility of meeting the need based on innate and ontogenetic
experience;
– information on cost, meeting the need;
– information about existing assets that the manager owns.
This formula is not used to obtain specific quantitative values, but only to illustrate the very
principle of the formation of positive or negative emotions of varying strength.
The factors listed above are decisive, necessary, and sufficient, but a time factor should also be
considered. Emotion can be either short-lived or long-lasting. At the same time, it is necessary to take
into account the peculiarities of emotions and individual-typological features of managers of
innovative projects. From the formula, it follows that the possibility of satisfying the need (comparing
the values of IP and IT) influences the sign of emotion. A function that reflects emotions is the same
as an evaluation function.
Emotional infestation is a social and psychological mechanism of transfer of mental mood to other
people from one person or group of people, emotional influence in the conditions of direct contact,
and inclusion of a person in certain mental states.
In times of crisis, the emotional behavior of the project manager and his infection with the project
team is exacerbated by external uncertainty.
Let’s define:
• Pandemia (PnD) – translated from Greek means “all people”.
• Infodemia (InfD) – information coverage of “all people”, information space of society (I).
• Panicdemia (PncD) is a panic state of “the whole people”, depending on the information
coverage of the society.
The more reliable (R), timely (T), and complete (C) information among the people (in society), the
less panic. The absence of one of these three RTC-parameters leads to an inferior formation of
“Infodemia”. In such cases, the result is an Infodemia with the “Black Hole”.
I
InfD( I ) = RiTi Ci (6)
i =1
InfD( I ) PncD( I ) PnD( I )
(7)
min( InfD) → max(PncD) = max(Pnd ) (8)
max(InfD) → min( PncD) = min( Pnd ) (9)
Emotions are different in content, reflecting different aspects of the complex COVID-19 project
and the situations that caused those situations [9, 10].
The concept of a community project or its intellectual space emerged in the global development of
management science. The project community includes members of the project team and other
stakeholders, organically shapes the value of the project mission, and participates in the
implementation of the project, using the combined competence of all members of the community. It is
a virtual, motivational space in which the stakeholders devote themselves to the project, being in
different geographical, cultural, specialized, and organizational environments; and build interaction
and collaboration within the project through an exchange of views on project content, planning,
control and information engagement in the project. The possibility (or impossibility) of the project to
create an active intellectual space significantly influences the project implementation.
Figure 2: Conceptual model reaction of the public immune system
Fig. 3 shows a diagram of the balance of Pandemic, Infodemic, and Panicdemic COVID-19 model.
The diagram shows direct and feedback links, showing the interaction logic of the proposed model.
Figure 3: Connection of “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic” model COVID-19
In fig. 4 shows the simulation results. Based on differential equations 1-4, morbidity dynamics
curves are formed. At the same time, the threshold for the capabilities of the country's health care
system has been determined. With an increase in the incidence and approaching the threshold of the
health care system, the effect of Panicdemia arises, which sharply weakens public immunity.
Panic
zone
The capacity of the health system
Figure 4: Uncertainty zone and Panic of “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic” model COVID-19
A project manager is a mission-oriented professional with the necessary authority to manage
uncertainty and Panic of “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic” model COVID-19 project. Its role
is to detail the mission of the project on goals and objectives, to formulate a strategy for its
implementation, and to form a project team consisting of experienced professionals to perform work
on a project that has certain limitations and conditions for implementation.
4. Case study of emotional behavior in “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs.
Pandemic COVID -19” system
During the implementation of the program, professionals from different fields of knowledge with
different skills cooperate to achieve the mission of the program [15, 16]. The community is a space of
partnership and competency, in which the professional competencies of the participants are
concentrated, the competence of the team is formed, as well as the cooperation between professionals
is encouraged to create a strong teamwork potential [7, 8].
At the program level, the most important thing is to set up interfaces for interaction between
organizations and program team members [14].
To form a harmonious community, the following rules must be followed:
1) strategic trust in the realization of common tasks: observance of social ethics, orientation on
maybe productive cooperation and commitment in work;
2) defining the context and principles of the program - an unequivocal interpretation of the
mission, tasks, roles, and professional terms within the program;
3) defining the program regulations - principles of program implementation, common professional
or technical language, terms for communication, and standards of implementation of business
processes;
4) the availability of professional skills that are implemented in the work on the program;
5) space ("Ba") is a common space used by stakeholders to support their professionalism and
engagement within the program, with a minimum set of rules of engagement.
Effective community management requires visibility, usefulness, and novelty. For participants to
feel the usefulness of the community, it should develop and present real and clear plans for the
implementation of the program, quantitative indicators, and methods of interaction. Besides, the
community should be able to access the application's databases and databases at any time, from
anywhere. Otherwise, it will be difficult to attract first-rate professionals to participate in the program.
The stakeholder infection model is based on an understanding of the life cycle of the project
manager, which is presented as a Kuber-Ross curve for personal changes of the manager of innovative
projects and programs (Fig. 5).
Figure 5: The curve of the scope of the Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic
On this curve, we see the initial phase of change of effective activity within three steps - "shock,
surprise, reflection", "insensitivity" and "denial". This is a short-term phase where the wall and
asthenic stains are infected. These infections usually do not extend beyond the project management
team. The second phase is related to a significant drop in performance. These are "blaming yourself
and others," "panic and fear," "depression and danger." At this stage, an asthenic infection is formed
that goes beyond the project management team [9, 10].
The third phase involves the transition from asthenic to wall infection of the stakeholders of the
innovation project. In this phase, the following factors are formed - "acceptance of ignorance",
"testing and verification", "feeling of optimism, hope and restart", "opening, learning", "feeling of
satisfaction" and "integration and new understanding" of the innovation project [11, 12, 13].
Consider how the emotional infection of stakeholders in complex COVID-19 projects is formed
through the competency system. Criteria for assessing competence in managing strategic trust are
determined based on a taxonomy consisting of 12 criteria [3, 6]:
1. Understanding the strategy
2. Understanding the criteria for development success
3. Management support of the strategy
4. Understanding the strategy by stakeholders
5. Assessment of cognitive readiness for strategy implementation
6. Understanding the architecture of the strategy implementation program
7. Assessment of the proposed KPI system
8. Proactive application of development trends as strategy drivers
9. Ensuring sustainable development based on the principles of coherence and congruence
10. Ensuring the current activities of the development project
11. Identifying, evaluating, and analyzing critical success factors for projects
12. Leadership in teamwork
The criteria evaluate[19–23] the ability to think holistically to formulate a mission to create added
value through penetration scenarios and to determine the intention to move from an "as is" model to
an "as will" model; the ability to think strategically to execute a program or project following planned
success based on the organization's added value, competitive advantage, consumer satisfaction,
balanced social importance, etc.; integral thinking to represent the value of the program and to support
its value, developed in the beginning, against the resistance of the environment.
In defining these criteria, systems of competencies are formed [17], which lays the foundation for
the emotional infection of stakeholders.
Key competencies for creating intelligent program support and stakeholder engagement for
“Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic” COVID-19 project are Strategic Thinking, Integral
Thinking, Leadership, Coordination, Communication Skills (provided by information systems,
databases, and knowledge), as well as motivated, professional initiatives.
The results of the assessment of changes in the competence of the manager and team of the project
with "asthenic emotions" are shown in Fig. 6.
The chart of changes in the level of competence of managers of innovative projects (Fig. 6) shows
significant drop in incompetence in the context of the influence of asthenic emotions.
In this case, the coefficient calculated as K = (Value 2) / (Value 1) in this case is equal to 1.54,
which indicates the negative impact of infection on the application of the competence of the project
manager.
Figure 6: Spider diagram for the strategic trust of “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic” model
COVID-19
Where
Value 1 – The panic situation in the Public health system.
Value 2 – Regular strategy according to SIERs model
The application of the proposed model and the approach to assessing the competencies of the
manager and team of the innovation project is conceptually understandable and fully proven as to the
adequacy of the model.
5. CONCLUSION
The conceptual model assumes the interaction of public immunity in the framework of the mutual
influence of Pandemic, Infodemic, and Panicdemic in a turbulent environment. The proposed
approach to modeling the system “Infodemic vs. Panicdemic vs. Pandemic” COVID-19 involves
taking into account the key factors influencing the model. This increases the adequacy of the
simulation results. The experiment conducted with the competencies of strategic trust in the situation
in the country and the actions of the government showed a sharp decline in trust as a result of the
Рanicdemic.
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