=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2853/paper45
|storemode=property
|title=Information-resource and Cognitive Concept of Threat’s Influence Identification on Technogenic System Based on the Cause and Category Diagrams Integration
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2853/paper45.pdf
|volume=Vol-2853
|authors=Lubomir Sikora,Rostislav Tkachuk,Natalia Lysa,Ivanna Dronyuk,Olga Fedevych,Romana Talanchuk
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/intelitsis/SikoraTLDFT21
}}
==Information-resource and Cognitive Concept of Threat’s Influence Identification on Technogenic System Based on the Cause and Category Diagrams Integration==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2853/paper45.pdf
Information-resource and cognitive concept of threat’s
influence identification on technogenic system based on the
cause and category diagrams integration
Lubomir Sikoraa, Rostislav Tkachukb, Natalia Lysaa, Ivanna Dronyuka, Olga Fedevycha,
Romana Talanchukc
a Lviv Polytechnic National University, 12, Bandera str., Lviv, Ukraine
b Lviv State University of Life Safety, 35, Kleparivska str., Lviv, Ukraine
c
Ukrainian Academy of Printing, 19, Pid Goloskom str., Lviv, Ukraine
Abstract
The system analysis of the aggregate structure of the energy-active object is carried out in the
article, adding multilevel complexity of system description. The complexity of the
functioning tasks, mode management are substantiated. An important task is to solve the
problem of identifying the risks level and crises causes as well as emergencies by operational
personal of ACS-TP.
The problem and its solution requires a certain level of adequate thinking, which would allow
the operator to imagine the scheme of all object units interaction from input to output,
physical and energy transformations during technological process in his point of view, as
well as the ability to assess the content of the situation and to form the basis of decision-
making.
The concepts of the image are substantiated and the information image, situations and the
influence cause-effect diagram of control actions and disturbance factors on an object mode
functioning of technogenic system are formed.
The basic models of systems description are considered, which are based on the description
concepts and connections reflection between objects and components: structural analysis;
theoretical-multiple representations; categorically-function models.
In these models, the basic are the sets of components and the relationship between them,
which reflect the system organization as a whole, which must be perceived by the operator
while management tasks performance of the aggregate object according to the target task as
in logical-graph and algebraic representation but also in block representation.
Structural images in the conceptual basis are formed, which highlights the most significant
aspects of the structure and functioning of the object, parameters, characteristics,
connections, resource factors areas of influence, actions on the design of units, which must be
mastered and reflected in the field of attention and memory (operational, deep) cognitive
system of the operator with appropriate training and knowledge base necessary to perform
control actions in the operational management of energy-intensive object in the structure of a
thermal power plant, which is a component of technogenic and ecological systems.
Keywords 1
Object, parameters, structure, mode, management, accident, information, risks, system,
hierarchy.
IntelITSIS’2021: 2nd International Workshop on Intelligent Information Technologies and Systems of Information Security, March 24–26,
2021, Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine
EMAIL: lssikora@gmail.com (L. Sikora); rlvtk@ukr.net (R. Tkachuk); lysa.nataly@gmail.com (N. Lysa); ivanna.m.dronyuk@lpnu.ua (I.
Dronyuk); olha.y.fedevych@lpnu.ua (O. Fedevych); rtalanchuk@gmail.com (R. Talanchuk)
ORCID: 0000-0002-7446-1980 (L. Sikora); 0000-0001-9137-1891 (R. Tkachuk); 0000-0001-5513-9614 (N. Lysa); 0000-0003-1667-2584
(I. Dronyuk); 0000-0002-8170-3001 (O. Fedevych); 0000-0003-3134-4343(R. Talanchuk)
© 2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
1. Introduction
To solve the management problem in technogenic systems, that operate under extreme loads and
risks, it is necessary to consider approaches, methods, models of knowledge description about system
structure with energy-intensive objects that are carriers of environmental pollution from waste slag,
heat and gases.
Substantiate the interpretation schemes of terminal, categorical and Ishikawa diagrams for physical
and chemical processes stages analysis, in the technological unit, aquatic environment, atmosphere
and soil, ecological environment of energy-active objects. This is an informational and systemic basis
for creating the structure of the environmental ecosystem monitoring system, which should take into
account the peculiarities of technological processes, chemistry of reagents, modes of operation of
facilities in accordance with state directives and laws.
2. References analysis
In [1] the basics of intelligent control systems are stated. In the fundamental work [2] for the first
time a whole oriented approach to the construction of cybernetic systems was formed.
In [3] the basics of complex systems systemology are stated. The monograph [4] substantiates the
ecosystems principles.
In the articles [5-7] the basics of information-measuring and control systems are stated.
In [8-11] logical-linguistic models of the situational management analysis in difficult systems are
stated.
The monographs [12, 13-17] outline the basics of management decision theory in complex systems
and the basic foundations of management risk assessment.
In [18-23] the human factor problems in control systems are considered.
In [24-27] cognitive concepts of managerial decision-making in terms of risk and action of active
factors on management systems, [28] – structure identification methods, [29-30] – strategic analysis
methods are shown.
3. Presentation of the main research material
Technogenic systems are characterized by a complex hierarchical structure that reflects the essence
of the production process, data selection on the object state and mode, situation assessment, selection
and decision-making system for pollution compensation and correction and management of operation
modes, technological management, automated operational and administrative management. For the
formation of management goals and current tasks, the strategic level (Figure 1) of the structure and
dynamics analysis, goals orientation is used [24-27].
Under the disturbances action, internal conflicts in the operational management system,
technogenic influences, environmental disasters, information attacks on the strategic management
level, it is necessary to ensure high reliability and stability of technogenic structures (active and
passive types) and prevent accidents in the system [1, 3, 7].
3.1. Analysis of dynamic processes in complex systems
To analyse the dynamics of dynamic processes and management, it is necessary to form a clear
management problem and the concept of its solution. Based on the system analysis and the balance
procedure of material and energy transformations using the construction methods of causal relations
and situational management, the balance structural scheme is developed as a basis for risk assessment
while disturbances actions on the technological system [10, 12, 15]. The balance scheme [resources –
management – threats] is the basis of analysis in the state space and the target management system
(Figure 2) [5, 6].
Figure 1. Technogenic complex management system hierarchical structure
According to figure 2 balance in the system is achieved through control actions that coordinate the
dynamics of the production mode (productivity) with the input resources flows at a given blocks state,
which are reflected in the target space taking into account the perturbation factors [2, 9].
The target problem and situational tasks can be effectively solved if the level of staff and their
cognitive and professional abilities and skills are taken into account when overcoming difficult mode
situations by coordinating the management system that is affected by information and system
disturbances [8, 21].
Problem statement. For industrial and technogenic complexes, which are characterized by a set of
different types of physic-chemical, energy and thermodynamic transformations, an important problem
is the construction of a number of models of structure and dynamics of objects, that can be described
on the systems analysis methods basis, logical-linguistic and algebraic description approaches and
structural connections and dynamics of resources transformation and processes management in the
course of technological processes in energy-active objects and their influence on ecological
environment [4, 16, 20].
Solving the above type problems on the basis of system information technologies and algebra-
logic models would provide a unified approach to the identification of the structure and operation and
management mode in existing systems and to create new ones based on information technologies.
Figure 2. Block diagram of the balance components between threats and management in the system
3. System and information structure of the problem of whole-oriented
management in the conditions of threats and risks
At the present stage of infrastructure development for socio-administrative and technogenic
spatially-distributed systems, the management problem in the face of threats, information attacks and
resource risks is distinguished, among others, by the great difficulty of constructing methods for
solving them. To effectively find methods for solving these complex and urgent problems, it is
necessary to comprehensively use system models, methods for identifying the structure and modes,
assessment of dynamic situations, which would allow to develop ways for solving management
problems in the face of threats and risks of technogenic accidents and environmental disasters on the
system-information basis and resource balance for effective functioning and achievement of strategic
stability of technogenic system [22, 29].
Technogenic systems, as objects of study, include the following components of the production
structural organization:
1. Nodes, units, measuring devices of the processor, actuators;
2. Blocks, technological lines, control and data selection systems;
3. Functionally complete technological structures (power units, resource preparation) production
processes, resource flows supplying means;
4. Production complexes with a certain infrastructure for the manufacture of certain products,
waste storage systems;
5. Socio-technogenic cluster structures and management structure regional systems;
6. Cognitive models of the person-manager.
Production technogenic systems are characterized by: a structure that describes the organization
scheme of its functional purpose (energy-active, energy-passive) structural parameters according to
which the technological process is realized (geometry, reliability, strength) and technological process
dynamics (state, mode, functioning purpose) parameters [14].
Purpose. On the basis of system analysis and algebra of categories there is a need to analyse
structural organization features of aggregate systems with a hierarchy to describe technogenic,
ecological and social environments. Consider the situations descriptions that develop on the
management object and displays through all the basic parameters and relationships necessary for its
classification and decision-making in terms of cognitive impairment and interference.
4. Analysis of the dynamics and situation in complex systems with a hierarchy
In the process of development of the technological process in time (in units, blocks, technological
lines, systems) the state of each component is determined by the parameters: Z S – state, Z R – mode, Z C
– position in the target space according to the time reference according to figures 1-2 [27];
In space (RZn × RT ) – (parameters – time); Z Si ∈ ПSi ; then the corresponding representation of state
spaces (ПS), mode spaces (ПS), goal space (ПC):
Z ri ∈ ΠRi (Z Ci , Z ri , Z C ) ⊂ ΠSi ⊗ ΠRi ⊗ ΠCi ;
Z Ci ∈ ΠC i where { }
ΠS i = I Zi × T , { }
ΠRi = I ri × T .
According to the problem, the goal space is defined, by definition, for each functional component:
ΠSi = {I Z = {max Z Si , min Z Sij }∀Z i ∈ I Z , ∀t ∈ Tm };
ΠRi = {Ε[Z ri , ti ] ⊂ (I R × Tm ), I R = {max Z ri , min Z ro }} ;
{
ΠCi = Rθ × Tm , L+A L−A , L+g , L+n , Lmin . }
As part of the system analysis, the situation is determined by a set of parameters (t S , ZV , Z C ti ), at a
time ti , in the interval (t i + ∆ i ) = Tm of observation Tm and is formed according to the diagram by the
relationship between resource and structural components in the thermodynamic substructure (TDS)
and product-forming (PS) (Figure 3).
The situation in the system, the control object is determined by a set of parameters that represent
the way of describing the spaces at a given time ti , in the observation interval τ i of the term Tm :
∀ti ∈ Tm Sit ∏ S (ti , x Tm ) ≡ {x(ti ,τ ) Tm }⇒ {trakX (ti ), ti ∈ Tm } – determines the trajectory graph
x(t ) on the interval T m .
Figure 3. Block diagram of the structural connections between the units and production line control
units
Accordingly, the concentration of harmful emissions depends on the parameters values:
(
C К (tі / Т m ) = f Z rt , Z St , Fu , Fr Сі ∈ ΠСі )
where Z rt = Z r (t i , ∀t і ∈ Т m ) – mode, Z St = Z S (t і , ∀t і ∈ Т m ) – state.
According to the given structural connections block diagram and the system approach, lets allocate
definitions of situations in states, modes and target spaces. Lets introduce the definitions, which are
necessary to highlight the concepts of the situational approach. [7, 24].
Definition 1.1. The current situation on the control object will be a description of all information
about the control object structure and its operation at a given time in the system target space
Sit Р (Z С+ ⊂ ΠСі , ∀t ∈ Tm ) ⇒ Z C (t ) ⊂ VС (Ω ) where VС (Ω і ) ⊂ VСі , VCS = VСІ (Ωі ) – division of the
n
і =1
target space into alternative areas.
Definition 1.2. The complete situation on the control object will be a set of current situations on a
time interval Tm , taking into account knowledge about the state, mode, position in the system target
space (∀t ∈ Tm , Z і ∈ ΠС Z ) :
SitDS Р ≅ ∀t і ∈ Т m , Z С (t ), Z r (t ), Z S (t ) , sipDS р ≅ {Tm × RZ /{Lі }, t}
where RZ – parameter, ΠС Z ≅ (RZ × Tm ) , Т m – time interval, sitDS р – situation in a dynamic situation.
Statistical estimates of changes in their trajectories during control actions:
U і : ∀t : U іС : Z С (tі ) → Z С (tі +1 ), ∀tі ∈ Т m ; U іr : Z r (t i ) → Z r (t і +1 ) ;
U S : Z S (t і ) → Z S (tі +1 ) when Z С (tі ) ∈ VС (Ω і ), {U і }∈ strat (U / C ) ,
where Z r (ti ) ∈ Vnr , Z S (tі ) ∈ Vns – normalized state area and object mode: Vnr ∈ (І r × Т m ) – the space area.
Definition 3. Relationship, as a mathematical structural element, forms connections between
concepts, objects, functional groups of objects components of the system description language, logic,
facts.
Based on a system analysis of the identification problem according to the definition, the following
relations classes can be distinguished in the structure [19, 25]:
1. Classification ratio – determines the classification system elements into groups and classes
with similar properties and structure;
2. Characteristic ratio – attribute different qualitative features to concepts and objects and are
decisive for the selection of elements class with the same properties;
3. Quantitative ratio – determine the quantitative concepts characteristics and are based on the
definition of measure;
4. Comparison relations – compare the characteristic and quantitative relations of the two
characteristics of concepts, which represents objects or situations.
5. The relations of belonging – connects two elements that are related situationally and are a
component of the classification procedure.
6. Time relations – determine time characteristics: simultaneity, to be earlier, later, now, time of
action.
7. Space relations – fix the object place and its connections with others in the spatial structure of
the real world.
8. Causal relations – reflect the cause-effect relationships that determine the purpose,
motivation, preferences in decision-making, link their consequences under the management action
and perturbations factors.
9. Information relations – describe the processes of reception, transmission of data, their content
and interpretation in the situation classification in the system.
10. Ordinal relations – describe the relationship between the elements of the real world and their
order in the course of events and spatial structures.
The systems dynamics is described by the actions and processes that occur in it and are
accordingly classified into:
• Imperatives – direct instructions on the actions of a certain class to change the state of the unit,
object (management directives);
• Processes – describe changes in object state, the logic of decisions, data processing and can occur
in the managed object;
• States – record a certain situation in the control object according to the description of its
parameters and structure.
• Positions – fix control objects position in the terminal time and spatial basis of the system.
Based on the above analysis, it is possible to form a method of presenting a scheme (diagram) of
active management interaction with the object and the influence of factors in a terminal diagram form
of active influences on the structure and the technological process course [26].
Accordingly, management actions and threats also lead to a change in the state and mode of
management object – that is, to a situation in the system that must be assessed, analysed and made
corrective decisions to counter threats.
Lets introduce the definition of system-information components of management implementation.
Definition. Action – targeted action of the active element on the influence object.
Definition. Di(Fj / t к ) – the effect of the influence factor on the management object state.
Event. ПDі F (t / Zc ) – a purposeful action was performed under the influence of a factor (active),
which led to a change in the object state.
Situation. SitПi (t ,τ і ) – position and parameters of the control object (system) in the goals and
state space at time t, on the interval τ і .
The state of the control object – StnOY StruktX , Y , T – a set of parameters that determine the
object position in the space of states in ПS = (( X × Y )× T )tі – according to the specified structure and
dynamics of parameters change.
5. Models of situational diagrams to represent the state of the system
Based on the concept of balance and cause-effect relationships, a diagram of chains change in the
state of the energy-active object due to the targeted action of threats and attacks on the control object
was developed (figure 4) (resource and information components) [6, 22]:
Purpose of threats and attacks
FR FE Fi Activator
Rm ППр
Rt X OY GH ПВв
Re ПВr
Ai
X(t/Tm) - ІВС KL Sit ПС
Пyr аСУ СППР
FL (Ci) ПСЗ (Ui) G(Ci)
Figure 4. Diagrams of changes in the state of an energy-active object under the threads influence to
the control process, functions and modes
Accordingly, lets select the structural components of the diagram according to their functional
purpose [11, 13]:
1. resource (Str DR (Rm, Rt, Re) – material, energy, thermodynamic resources;
2. management object (OY, ПR, ППr, ПВv, ПВr) – the process of product formation, solid and
gaseous waste;
3. management structure:
• KL – situation classifier;
• IMS – information – measuring system;
• ACS – automated control system;
• DSS – management decision support system;
• G (Ci) – target generator;
• PTT (u) – processor target management tasks;
• ПУr – object mode control processor;
• FL (Ci) – sequential generation of targets to compensate for perturbations factors;
• (FR, Fi, FE) – factors influencing the information, resource and energy structure of the
technogenic system object.
The state change diagram is the basis for building terminal cause-effect relationships in the threats
assessment and the emergencies occurrence if the management system cannot form a response [8, 15,
18].
The system component of the control counteraction can be formed in the form of a diagram, which
is the basis for constructing situational relations diagrams (figure 5).
Purpose of threats action
IS
x
Uz
Factors Activation Fi
Ui
Su x
x
Factor Fj (ti, )ד Di(Fi) X Y1
Y2
x
UDi Event ПS
Figure 5. Situational relationships diagram in the object management system
5.1. Model 1. Situational diagram with parallel – sequential structure
This diagram describes the thermodynamic transformations in the energy-active blocks of the
technogenic system (Figure 6). Accordingly, the components (Rm , Rca ) – energy-active in ( Ar1 ) – the
unit turn into an energy-active form (thermodynamic processes of energy generation as in ( Ar 2 ) – is
converted into a kinetic of given power level [24, 26].
Rm tn P1 Zci
t1 t2
Ui Ar1 Sit
Zri
DSp
Rca Sit 1 P3
Fi P2 Ar2 Zsi
t1 tk
Sit 2
Figure 6. Situational diagram with parallel – sequential structure
Symbols: (Ui, Fi ) – active actions, ( Ar1 , Аr2 ) – active transformations, Sit – situation model in Ari
units, {ti } – traffic time counts.
According to the above, lets construct state change diagrams under the action of Ui control and
successive over time influence factors {Fi}, which leads to a consistent situation change, respectively:
• UDi (t1 , t 2 ) → Agv1 → Sit (t1 ) – management actions;
• ( )
D Fi I t .....t k → {P2 (Fi )} → Ar2 (Fi t1...t k ) → Z Ci – formation of an active factor over time
{F t ....t } diagram, which led to a change in the object’s state.
i 1 k
5.2. Model 2. Situational diagram
Situational diagram of situation change under the action of factors {Fі } in the interval of terminal
time for each moment tі ∈ Tm and unfolds a events chain, which are respectively linked in cause-effect
diagrams of the object’s state (trajectory in the state and target space) and is the basis for identifying
causes of control failure. Based on the decomposition of the diagram, the reverse transition is
performed (change of the state trajectory – to the cause, the active action factor), which provides the
choice of control (action mode) (Figure 6) [25, 27].
Accordingly, the diagram shows the influence of a set of factors with a stochastic structure, which
act on the control object unit and, accordingly, lead to a change in the system state and unit mode (set
power) {F1....Fn τ i ∈ Tm} → Sit (t1 ) → {Sit (t mi )}.
Figure 5 shows the influence accumulation on the object under the action of a influence factors
system, which is superimposed on the management action and when the intensity of the factors leads
to the failure in the object management:
n
H 1 I Fi ≤ I d ⇒ D({Fr }) → min Tm → ALARM → STOP
t =1 u
n 1
H 2 I F j ≥ I d ⇒ D Fi → max Tm → ALARM → AVAR ,
i =1 i =1 u
where I ( ) – the intensity of the influence of the factor on the management process.
5.3. Model 3. Diagrams of factors influences on the aggregate structure of
energy-active management object with active and passive resources
transformation
An energy-aggregated object with a complex resources transformation due to thermodynamic
transformations, has different types of functional blocks in its structure that are influenced by control
and perturbing factors through the appropriate transmission channels of their actions to the mode [9].
Accordingly, lets allocate resource units, energy-active, productive (Figure 7).
The influence factors on the mode and state of the aggregate object diagram, with the specified set
{ } { }
of input parameters Z ri іn=1 – state, U j mj=1 – control actions and influence factors {Fuij , Fur } on the
mode and unit control, the technological energy transformations dynamics is presented through the
operator АTS = АTS (t і ,U , F , Z r , Z S , Z С ) . The diagram is the basis for assessing the situation and
changing the events scenario in the target system space and state spaces and dynamic energy-active
mode of technological system object operation under the action of factors and control actions.
The given diagrams according to the models represent the change of the object’s state according to
the time positions {t1 t к } ⊂ Т m , on the terminal interval when the way of influence of the
perturbation factors changes.
MO State ПR
Aggregated object
Zr1 Х1 Sit n
Fri Ars Ag
Sitn-1
Zrn Х2 X X
Sit tk
Frn
Sit ti
management
Us P
Ui Хn Fur tk Zs
Fus
Fun
Figure 7. Situational diagram of action factors categorical representation on active and passive units
5.4. Model 4. Terminal diagram of influence factors
The action mode on the time interval τ of factors and the multiplicative structure is reflected
through the event development scenario and on the terminal diagram of cause-and-effect relationships
of changes in situations in the control object (Figure 8). The diagram shows the structure of situation
changing process at time intervals {t і , t i + m } under the action of active influence set of factors on
aggregated object {Аі } state and mode [26].
Activation of influence factors on object {Fsi}
A Fii Fin F2 B {Fsi} C
A3
X
A2
A1 X X A4
X A5
to
Tmi
ti ti+1 t2 t3 t3+1 t3+2 t3 tk+ t,k,n
Figure 8. Factors influence terminal diagram on the object’s mode
5.5. Model 5. The factors influence degree on the control actions and object’s
modes with an aggregated structure at intervals {Ti}
Under the influence of influencing factors D(Fj VarI ) – with a change in the intensity of the control
mode becomes non-stationary (Figure 9).
In the time of exposure and therefore the diagrams structure is complicated in the control actions
performing process.
To assess units operations reliability (Model 4) and systems of energy-intensive units, it is
necessary to create methods for presenting procedures for the accumulation of influencing factors on
the basis of additive-multiplicative (threshold actions) models [26].
U1
F sit1 ∑ Fk sit2
Zr Vzr
U1 Vr
∑ Si
t
ti T1 T2 T3 Ti Tk
Figure 9. Diagrams of change in the influencing factors intensity
5.6. Model 6. Accumulation of action factors activity on the time axis
With the complex action of control strategies and influence factors (mode, state, information),
which have a negative character with varying degrees of intensity, the object mode depends on the
transition probability through the risk level mode parameters of the control object [26] – according to
the hypothesis:
(( ) ) → Sit1( ALARM )
Н І : I ∑ Fі і =1 t ∈ Tm ≥ α risk → Sit 2( AVAR) .
t n
( ( ) )
That is: If Рrob ∑ Fі І іn=1 ≥ α risk ⇒ (sit1 )( AVAR ) and the diagram is in accordance (Figure 10).
Risk occurrence components due to factors influencing on management are divided into:
• DFrisk 1 – passive factors with the accumulation of influence level;
• DFrisk 2 – additive threshold model of factors influence;
• DFrisk 3 – multiplicative model of factors influence;
• DFrisk 4 – chain model of attack generation;
• {Sititn } – the sequence of situations that lead to an emergency situation in an energy-active
object.
System energy - information disturbances
DFrisk4
DFrisk1 DFrisk2 DFrisk3
f2
F1
X X AVAR
{∑Fk } F2
{Fin }
X X ALARM
F3
∑ + NORMA
Sit to Fn
X X
T
ti ti tj+i ∑ TL+N
siti Sit i+1 Sit i+2 Sit i+3
n Influence
∑ Рі → max Fi
pO і=1 accumulation
T
to t1 tn
Figure 10. Risk intensity factors terminal accumulation diagram of emergency situation occurrence in
the technogenic system unit
Influence factors components by their action are composed according to the conditions: the action
in time and the intensity level:
m
∀t i ∈ Tm : FKi − [or any FК ];
∃(ti ,τ i )∈ Tm : FКj − [or all together FК ];
m
і =1
∃Rang {ti ∈ Tm } {Fn −1 Fnk }− [or each successively].
6. Risk assessments under the influence of active type perturbations
The risk level assessment is based on the analysis of modes in the space of the modes state, the
target breakdown of their target state area – normal operating, maximum and minimum power on the
basis of matching scales, a risk distribution function is built [14, 23].
The structure of the risk function, depending on technological type δ (Pn ) goes to functions set of
parabolic and rectangular type, reflecting the change in the risks level from the load and the type of
threats that lead to an accident or shutdown of the unit (Figure 11).
ϕ (αrisk ) = Pn1 (a, Fi , t ) → αri
At δ – function of risks distribution
(α r = 1,0) if Pn1 (U , Fi , t ) = 1,2Shp
(α r = 0 ± ε ) if Pn (U , Fi , t ) = 0,5Shp
(α r = 1,0) if Pn (U , Fi , t ) ∈ [0 ÷ 0,2]Shp .
Shn Shp Shk Pa Shr
1,5
1 0,05
1
1,0
Vcim
2
0,75
Vci
3
0,5
Vcn
4
0,25
5
t1 tk ti
Тц
Figure 11. Load and risk scales Shkr, Shp coordination in assessing the dynamic situation
Designation: Shp – load assessment normative scale:
• Shn – normative stages of the scale;
• Shk – cognitive load scale;
• Shr – risk allocation function;
• R – is the active power of the unit.
In other cases, under the influence of intensive factors (resource, system, information), the
magnitude of the load level risk function is a component of the family (Figure 12):
u
ϕ (α ri , Pi , Fi Shp )∈ ϕ i α r , Pj ⊗ FA Sh ;
u
i =1 R =1
where ϕ j (α r , PK ) ⇒ [exp(− (K1 PKi )) = α r ], ∀ R ∈ Shp .
Ɣ(ɑRisk)
1,0
ɑr
M=max min
= -
AVAR Stop
Sh Sh
Pn 1 Pn 1,0 0,5 0,2 0
0,5 0,2 0
Figure 12. The structure of the risk function
According to the above influence factors cause-and-effect analysis with the intensity accumulation
that exceeds the threshold α Р according to the rule: If ∑ Рі (Fi ) > α P than Fi : Sit (t i ) → Sit (t i +1 )
m m
i =1 i =1
there is a change in the situation in the control object on energy-active object functioning terminal
time interval.
Consider the formation model of cause-and-effect relations diagram, which lead to chains of
situations successive change in the management object with energy-active structure and active control
actions and factors influencing on its state and mode. The change in the situation occurs on the
terminal cycles {Т і } = {t і , tі + n }іm=1 , under the influence of factors with their actions intensity accumulation
on the control (Figure 13) and is reflected in the signals classifier (KL).
F11
F31
RL AVAR
Σ
{F31}
ALARM
F11
{F4i} NORMA
F21
STOP
F3k
F4n ts3
to Ƭo
X X t
T12 ts1 td2 T23 ts2 td3 T34
Si
Sit t1 Sit t2 Sit t3 Sit t4
A22' A33' A44'
Sit t2' Sit t3' Sit t4'
A2'3 A3'4
Sz
Figure 13. Situational changes diagram in the state under the influence of factors influencing the
energy-active object with a controlled structure
Designation on (Figure 13) of the object condition change diagram:
• {Sittі } – the mode situation of object at the time tі ;
• {А } – transition operators (when the state changes);
ij
• {Т } – terminal time cycles;
ij
• {tSi } – the beginning of the time of factors accumulation;
• {FSi } – additive structure of factors action;
• {FRi } – consistent flow structure of factors.
Integration (Figure 8) of Ishikawa, cause-effect and categorical diagrams on terminal time cycles is
the basis for the development of identification diagnostic procedures for the units detection with high
levels of harmful emissions into the ecological environment, when changing the object operation
mode of under resource influence, thermodynamic and information impact factors and the
corresponding level of emergencies risk according to (Figures 1-13).
DSS System ID
System Category Information
S and D models
models models Technology
Database and knowledge management system
Gmg
Strategic level management КІАк
Tactical level management КІАі
Correction Ui Coordination
ABig
АSC- ТP IMS
BMr A
Status and Zc
Command
mode
processor N
control Zs
ПR
Influence factors
X
Ag1 Ag2 Fk……..Fi Agk
X X X
X
DR Intelligent data processing DF
Risks IND
Test signals Cause – effect level
generator diagrams generation evaluati
on
Figure 14. Identification of technogenic system condition and mode information – resource scheme
Notation for Figure 14: S and D models – Structure and Dynamics models, DSS – decision support
system; DF – data flows; Gmg – models of situations images generator; KIAi – a team of managers
based on the concept of an intellectual agent; ACS-TP – technological process automatic control
system; IMS – information – measuring system (data selection, rationing, evaluation of parameters
and situational data on the state of control objects); Agi – aggregate structure of technological process
or other type; IND – mode indication; (Zs, Zc) – parameters of the state of the units; (Fk, Fi) – factors
of active physical impact and reliability; BMr – executive mechanism for managing the flow of
resources from the source (DR); (ABig) – emergency visualization of the state of the units.
According to the information-resource concept of condition identification and technogenic system
functioning mode, the scheme (Figure 14) reflects structural and information communications and the
formation scheme of administrative decisions was developed [1, 28, 30].
Based on the scheme (Figure 14) the following monitoring stages of the system state can be
identified:
1. Stage of managerial actions formation in the conditions of the minimum influence of external
and internal states;
2. Managerial actions formation, based on the strategy of compensation, which is performed by
operational personnel (model of the person – PMD, the person who makes decisions as a
cognitive intellectual agent);
3. For resource and information attacks on the management process, requires the use of
coordination strategy at the level of strategic management, for which it is necessary to perform
intelligent operations using information technologies:
• Diagnostics mode of all units and components management means condition, the analysis of
deviations from the purpose;
• Structural nodes identification mode through which the action of influencing factors on the
basis of testing is possible;
• Construction of cause-effect diagrams to identify factors of influence and assess the risks of
their action;
• Development and implementation of strategies for coordinating the modes and condition of
all units and control means to counter threats with maximum efficiency and minimum risk of
accidents;
4. Operational and technical personnel ability assessment, to take measures to counteract the
factors threats of physical type and information attacks on the basis of the person-cognitive
intellectual agent model;
5. Implemented solutions control and evaluation of their effectiveness in relation to the accident
risk level in the terminal cycle of technogenic system management.
Based on the conducted analysis and figures 1-14 diagrams of impacts and risk assessment tables
for different management situations of technogenic system with energy-active units are formed (on
the example of studies of Burshtyn TPP and glass industry enterprises) (Table 1-5), which take into
account the ability of operational personnel to make decisions in risky situations.
Table 1
The management failure risk level due to information – cognitive operations incorrect performance
№ Operation type Kid αr
1 Goal-orientation function FCi 0,5-0,8
2 Ability to generate currents FAGstrat 0,7-0,9
3 Logical thinking in conditions of risk FLgm 0,5-1,0
4 Ability to assess the system situation Fc(Sit) 0,6-1,0
5 Ability to plan whole-oriented actions Fc(Di) 0,7-1,0
6 Ability to make decisions in the face of threats Fc(Rz) 0,75-1,0
7 Ability to goal-oriented thinking Fzm(Ci) 0,8-1,0
8 Cognitive analysis of the threats nature Fka(Zi) 0,4-1,0
9 Cognitive ability to form problem-solving programs Fkz(Rz) 0,7-1,0
10 Level of intellectual activity RID 0,5-1,0
Table 2
Accident risk function assessment when changing the power unit load due to personnel coordination
№ Modes Shp αrisk
1 Mode correction 0,4-1,0 0,1-0,3
2 Changing the mode of the power unit 0,6-0,9 0,1-0,5
3 Optimizing the external load response Opt 0,6-1,0 0,1-0,75
4 Adaptation to changes in load pulses Adap. 0,4-1,1 0,25-1,0
n
5 Target coordination of power units group ∑ P (Uk )
i =1
E 0,5-1,0
Table 3
Estimation of risk functions at change of I (F) factors action intensity on management object modes
№ modes Pn I(Fr) αrisk
1 Start mode 0-0,25 < 0,5 0,5-1,0
2 Norma (P< 1 Pn) 0,25-0,5 0,5-0,95 0,05-1,0
2
3 Norma (P> 1 Pn) 0,5-1,0 0,5-0,95 0,15-0,25
2
4 ALARM 0,9-1,15 0,6-1,0 0,8-1,0
5 AVAR >1,2 0,5-1,0 > 0,95
Table 4
Risk functions estimation at resource change components quality (fuel) and various loading modes
№ Load modes αrisk Indicator αr
1 Minimum load power 0,45-0,60 ALARM α r > 0,5
2 Normal mode 0,5-0,95 NORMA 0,05-0,1
3 Limit mode 0,9-1,05 ALARM1 0,05-0,1
4 Pre-emergency mode 0,95-1,1 ALARM 2 0,5-0,9
5 Emergency situation 1,1-1,3 τr ≤ τd 0,9-1,0
Table 5
Risk level change when changing the information attacks factors intensity
№ Informational attacks on ASC Shp αrisk
1 Information – measuring system 0,2-1,2 0,5-1,0
2 Intelligent data processing 0,2-1,2 0,5-1,0
3 Situation assessment processor in the object 0,2-1,2 0,75-1,0
4 Management and decision making processor 0,2-1,2 0,75-1,0
5 Command processor 0,2-1,2 0,8-1,0
According to the tables (Table 1-5) obtained in the process of testing professional and cognitive
characteristics, professional suitability assessments are formed [7, 23, 26].
u
α1risk = Kid , Kid ∈ [0,5 ÷ 1] ;
i=
n
α 2 risk = Shp j , Shp j ∈ [0,1 ÷ 1] ;
і =1
n
α 3 risk = α risk , α risk ∈ [0,1 ÷ 1,0] ;
s =1
then α 4 risk = max α risk і , і ∈ [1 ÷ 4] ;
α 5risk = max α Riski , α Risk [0,5 ÷ 1,0];
n
α 5/ Risk − Shpі , Shp ∈ [0,2 − 1,2] –
к =1
are indicators of the limit mode and transition to the power unit operation emergency area.
Novelty
According to logical-cognitive and categorical concepts the information technology for
integration of system and categorical models and identification methods of structural components of
system and nodes, on which actions of threats are possible, leading to emergencies and influences
on ecosystem, a method of an estimation of mode and cognitive risks in the process of object
management and threat actions and appropriate means to counter attacks on resources and
management modes is developed.
7. Conclusion
To ensure the anti-accident safety of technogenic energy-active systems and possible
environmental pollution, on the basis of system and information technology, information-resource
concept, the scheme of interpretation of terminal diagrams, categorical and Ishikawa diagrams for
analysis of physicochemical stages of processes in the technological unit is substantiated. This makes
it possible to counteract the threat of accidents, which can lead to pollution of the aquatic
environment, atmosphere and soil, the ecological environment of energy-intensive facilities.
The developed method of analysis is an information and system basis for creating the structure of
the monitoring system of the surrounding ecosystem, which should take into account the peculiarities
of technological processes, chemistry of reagents, facilities operation modes, the basis for developing
methods of emergency measures by counteracting threats, the effectiveness of which depends on the
knowledge level and cognitive characteristics of operational personnel.
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