=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2870/paper112
|storemode=property
|title=Simulation the Impact of Eco Expenditure on the Effectiveness of Eco Projects: the Railways of Ukraine Case
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2870/paper112.pdf
|volume=Vol-2870
|authors=Nestor Shpak,Liana Maznyk,Zoriana Dvulit,Oksana Mykytiuk,Tatiana Melnyk
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/colins/ShpakMDMM21
}}
==Simulation the Impact of Eco Expenditure on the Effectiveness of Eco Projects: the Railways of Ukraine Case==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2870/paper112.pdf
Simulation the Impact of Eco Expenditure on the Effectiveness
of Eco Projects: the Railways of Ukraine Case
Nestor Shpaka, Liana Maznykb, Zoriana Dvulita, Oksana Mykytiukc and Tatiana Melnykd
a
Lviv Polytechnic National University, Bandera str. 12, Lviv, 79000, Ukraine
b
National University of Food Technologies, Volodymyrska Str. 68, Kyiv, 01601, Ukraine
c
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Volodymyrska Str. 64/13, Kyiv, 01601, Ukraine
d
Joint Stock Company "Ukrzaliznytsia", Jerzy Giedroyc, 5, Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine
Abstract
A system of indicators of the structure and dynamics of operational freight turnover, which
includes environmental protection expenditure, carbon dioxide (СО2) emissions from railway
transport enterprises was created. A multilevel hierarchical model of the relationship
between: operational turnover and the amount of СО2 emissions by the relevant sources of
pollution in terms of their volume and structure (the first level); environmental expenditure
and the amount of СО2 emissions (the second level), was developed. The results of the study
confirmed that largely the reduction of such harmful emissions is due to the size and structure
of expenditure for environmental projects. The novelty of the article is the development of
methodological approaches to test the hypothesis that with increasing environmental
expenditure for environmental protection, СО2 emissions from rolling stock and stationary
sources of pollution of the six railways of Ukraine are reduced.
Keywords 1
Expenditure, Environmental protection, Ukrainian railways, Simulation
1. Relevance
Railway transport companies rank second in the ranking of major air pollutants in the transport
industry. Diesel locomotives have the most detrimental effect on the environment, compared to other
elements of the rolling stock of the inventory of railway transport enterprises, polluting the air by
burning diesel fuel, the consumption of which drives the diesel traction. Reducing this negative
impact is one of the most important tasks of railway companies. The officially declared goal of JSC
Ukrzaliznytsia is, among others, to meet the needs for safe and high-quality rail transportation,
sustainable development of the railway transport. In recent years though, the company made some
decisions not focused on those strategic aims. In particular, on February 23, 2018, an agreement was
signed on the purchase of locomotives of the American conglomerate General Electric. At that time,
this decision was based on future stability and quality of supply, ensuring the output of products for
export. But soon (October 29, 2020) the head of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" officially declared that he sees
no need for further purchase of General Electric locomotives and noted that it will be more profitable
to switch to electric locomotives, as it is much more efficient from an economic and environmental
point of view. Thus, the lack of a strategic vision for the impact of the type of traction on the
environment of the main pollutants does not allow: to optimize the size and structure of
environmental expenditure in different areas in their distribution among railway enterprises; to make
appropriate decisions regarding the expediency of purchasing a railway fleet according to the types of
COLINS-2021: 5th International Conference on Computational Linguistics and Intelligent Systems, April 22–23, 2021, Kharkiv, Ukraine
EMAIL: nestor.o.shpak@lpnu.ua (N. Shpak); solieri@i.ua (L. Maznyk); zoriana.p.dvulit@lpnu.ua (Z. Dvulit); mykytiuk@knu.ua
(O. Mykytiuk); avgust26@ukr.net (T. Melnyk)
ORCID: 0000-0003-0620-2458 (N. Shpak); 0000-0002-5387-7442 (L. Maznyk); 0000-0002-2157-1422 (Z. Dvulit); 0000-0002-8657-7278
(O. Mykytiuk); 0000-0003-2216-0606 (T. Melnyk)
2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
traction on which passengers and cargo are transported. In the context of our study, the type of
traction is a crucial factor influencing the environment, environmental projects and expenditure etc.
2. Literature review
Theoretical analysis of literature sources on the research topic concerned the impact of railways on
the environment and international experience in conducting and implementing environmental projects
in various fields. In particular, an estimate of СО2 emissions from railway maintenance was carried
out. The results of the study [1] allow engineers, construction managers to critically plan strategic
maintenance of railways.
The issue of environmental impact of the transport sector, including rail transport, due to
significant amounts of СО2 emissions is presented in [2-6], in particular in the area of tax collection
[7]. In [8] the increase of pollutant emissions due to the development of infrastructure and global
transport needs is substantiated. This is also reflected in the study [9] on air pollution due to emissions
of airborne particles from stationary and mobile sources.
In particular, in [10] the impact of the Prydniprovska regional railway of JSC «Ukrzaliznytsia” on
the environment was analyzed. The study [11] is devoted to prospects of electrification of railways.
According to [12], an important task in assessing the impact of transport on the environment is to
better understand the effects of СО2 emissions, in order to develop optimal routes to achieve long-
term greenhouse gas reductions from transport. The impact of various factors, including personnel on
the level of environmental safety and safety in general in railway transport, was considered in [13].
Despite the significant relevance of the research topic, insufficient attention is still paid to the
analysis and evaluation of the relationship between environmental expenditure and СО2 emissions by
transport companies as one of the largest polluters.
3. Research methodology
A multilevel hierarchical model is proposes, which at the first level estimates the relationship
between operational turnover and the amount of СО2 emissions by the relevant sources of pollution in
terms of their volume and structure. The second level of simulation focuses on the structure and
closeness of the relationship between environmental expenditure and the amount of carbon dioxide
emissions as the most harmful pollutant. At the third level, the share of variation in emissions due to
transportation is compared with the share of variation in emissions due to the cost of environmental
projects. The hierarchy of the model also provides for the structuring of the object of study: the first
level of the hierarchy – six railways of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia", the second level – JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia".
The system of selected indicators provided for the inclusion of relevant statistical reports submitted to
state statistics bodies and internal statistical reporting of the railways of Ukraine for 2007-2019.
4. Research results
The application of the proposed hierarchical methodology involves conducting a priori analysis of
the dynamics of volume and quality indicators of six railways of Ukraine and JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" in
general. According to [14], the indicators of specific volumes of electric traction in total turnover in
2007-2019 show the variation of its fluctuations in the range from 84.2% in 2007 to 91.2% in 2014. In
2015, the share of electric traction decreased to 89.7%, and since 2016 there has been a tendency to its
reduction from 88.55% (2016) to 86.49 in 2019. The operational length of electrified sections during
the study period increased from 9670.6 km in 2007 to 10267.5 km in 2013, and decreased to 9999.6
km in 2015. The downward trend was observed in 2019 (up to 9319 km). 2019 was a difficult year in
terms of both the results of transportation work and environmental protection activities. In the context
of Ukraine's international obligations, including JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia", such dynamics is unacceptable
and makes it difficult to meet the relevant requirements.
In pursuance of Ukraine’s obligations under international treaties [15] and the requirements of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [16], the Law of Ukraine "On Principles
for Monitoring, Reporting and Verification of Greenhouse Gas Emissions" [17] was adopted and put
into action on 01.01.2021. It applies to relations arising in the field of monitoring, reporting and
verification of greenhouse gas emissions from installations located in Ukraine. Emissions of
pollutants and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by railway transport enterprises are defined as
the total amount of air pollution from stationary and mobile sources of pollution. The source of
greenhouse gas emissions is: a separate part of the installation from which the emissions are made, or
a process within the installation that leads to emissions.
Annual data on the amount of environmental expenditure for each of the railways of Ukraine
(regional branches of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia": "Lvivska Railway", "Odeska Railway", "Prydniprovska
Railway", "Pivdenno-Zakhidna Railway", "Pivdenna Railway", "Donetska Railway") in 2007-2019
was used. СО2 emissions from the railway transport enterprises come from stationary sources of
pollution and rolling stock. The emissions from stationary sources are recorded for each railway and
submitted in the form of annual reports.
According to regulations [18, 19], the input data for determining the amount of pollutant emissions
into the air from the rolling stock are: fuel consumption for locomotive engines and specific emissions
of pollutants and greenhouse gases per unit of diesel fuel used by diesel locomotives. The calculation
of emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases from railway transport is based on the initial data of
enterprises on fuel consumption for the operation of locomotive engines. In order to calculate the
emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases from railway transport, the volumes of fuel consumed
by railway rolling stock were determined. In the research the data on the volumes of fuel consumption
for the operation of railway transport engines, submitted in the forms of the state statistical
observation report №4-mtp [20], was processed. Selection of reports and indicators in them on
railway transport from the total set of reports submitted by enterprises, organizations, institutions, was
performed according to the following criteria for railway transport: codes of economic activity
60.10.1, 60.10.2, 63.21.1, section "Final consumption energy materials and petroleum products",
column 5 ("for transport activities"), line 300 (gasoil (diesel fuel)).
The dynamics of diesel fuel consumption by Ukrainian railways is different. On six railways there
was a general decrease in fuel consumption by diesel locomotives during the studied period.
However, such a structure is not typical for all six railways. Consumption of diesel fuel in 2019
compared to 2007 had a downward trend for each of them, while their structure was not steady
downward. The dynamics and structure of railway consumption changed in different ways: in some
the share increased, in others, on the contrary, decreased.
In general, the consumption of diesel fuel by the railways of Ukraine has a declining trend.
Moreover, the peculiarities of the dynamics of diesel fuel consumption on all railways are nonlinear
dynamic dependences, which can be explained by significant structural changes in diesel fuel
consumption by these railways in 2007-2019. The analysis of structural changes indicates changes on
all six railways. They show a non-linear trend in the dynamics of fuel consumption. This non-linear
dynamics is related to the behavior of Ukrzaliznytsia as a complex system, which can be seen through
changes in its structure.
The dynamics of the structure of the total operational turnover of the Ukrainian railways in 2007-
2019 was characterized by significant fluctuations. Thus, the share of Odeska, Pivdenno-Zakhidna
railway and Lvivska railways increased rapidly in 2015-2019 (with slight fluctuations over the years),
in 2013-2019 the share of Donetsk railway decreased sharply. The share of Prydniprovska Railway is
quite unstable, the largest decline occurred in 2015 with a gradual slow growth until 2019 (Fig. 1).
The general trend for JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" is decline of the total operational turnover (Fig. 2).
Forecasting the dynamics of the studied indicator is recommended using a linear trend. The existing
trends for individual railways, presented in Fig. 2, are mainly declining by various forms of
dependence.
The share of emissions of the Donetska Railway in their total volume since 2013 has been rapidly
declining. This can be explained by the corresponding reduction in traffic. The share of emissions of
the Pivdenna Railway in 2007-2013 is also rapidly declining and shows a weak upward trend in 2015-
2019. At the same time, the shares of emissions of Lvivska and Pivdenno-Zakhidna Railways are
growing.
35
30
25
Share of the total, %
20
15
10
5
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lvivska railway Donetska railway
Prydniprovska railway Pivdenna railway
Pivdenno-Zakhidna railway Odeska railway
Figure 1: Dynamics of the structure of the total operational turnover of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" in 2007-
2019 by railways
700000
y = -2828x + 126677 y = 27,133x4 - 768,21x3 + 7121x2 - 24324x + 143403
R² = 0,7187 R² = 0,4691
600000
500000
million ton-km gross
y = -17542x + 582760
R² = 0,8172
400000
y = -54,706x3 + 1311,2x2 - 9282,1x + 66986
R² = 0,6097
300000
y = -5949,2x + 128776 y = -2051,1x + 61856 y = -5837,2x + 90812
R² = 0,8144 R² = 0,8954 R² = 0,8356
200000
100000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lvivska railway Donetska railway
Prydniprovska railway Pivdenna railway
Pivdenno-Zakhidna railway Odeska railway
JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia"
Figure 2: Dynamics of the total operational turnover of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" in 2007-2019 by railways
The corresponding indicators for the Prydniprovska and Odeska Railways have slight fluctuations
over time with a manor increase in the share. The structure of pollution of rolling stock and stationary
sources is also unstable. Thus, the share of pollution by rolling stock was the highest for the Southern
Railway in 2007 (99.79%) and the lowest for the Donetska Railway in 2009 (65.39%).
The largest "polluter" was the Odeska Railway in 2017 (21.63% of all emissions from the railways
of Ukraine), the smallest – the Prydniprovska one (11.52%) in 2014. The total change in emissions
from the railways decreased by almost 42%, which is significantly ahead reduction of traffic volumes,
which decreased in 2019 compared to 2007 by less than 36% (Fig. 3 and Fig. 4).
25
20
Share of the total, %
15
10
5
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lvivska railway Donetska railway
Prydniprovska railway Pivdenna railway
Pivdenno-Zakhidna railway Odeska railway
Figure 3: Dynamics of the structure of emissions of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" in 2007-2019 by the railways
In the studied period, the structure of environmental protection expenditure for the railways of
Ukraine is characterized by significant changes. The lowest share of total expenditures in 2009
(2.36%) falls on the Pivdenna Railway, which, however, in 2011 became the leader in this indicator
(52.25%). Significant fluctuations of the respective shares are also characteristic of the Odeska
Railway – from 4.92% (2012) to 37.89% (2009).
The dynamics of environmental protection expenditures in absolute terms is also unstable. More
than a fourfold increase in this indicator was observed in 2012 compared to 2007 and a decrease of
almost 15% in 2015. Later, this indicator began to increase gradually to 11.34% in 2019 compared to
2007 (Fig. 5 and Fig. 6).
2500000
2000000
y = -20183x + 399365 y = -11764x + 373095
R² = 0,8624 R² = 0,76
1500000
y = -69663x + 2E+06
y = -36418ln(x) + 321287 R² = 0,8161
R² = 0,7897
ton
1000000
y = 278139x-0,161 y = 1135,6x2 - 22010x + 340637 y = -9033,1x + 254584
R² = 0,7176 R² = 0,7944 R² = 0,742
500000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lvivska railway Donetska railway
Prydniprovska railway Pivdenna railway
Pivdenno-Zakhidna railway Odeska railway
JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia"
Figure 4: Dynamics of emissions of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" in 2007-2019 by the railways
60
50
Share of the total, %
40
30
20
10
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lvivska railway Donetska railway
Prydniprovska railway Pivdenna railway
Pivdenno-Zakhidna railway Odeska railway
Figure 5: Dynamics of the structure of environmental protection expenditure of the Ukrainian
railways in 2007-2019
The results of the correlation-regression analysis of the dependence of emissions by Ukrainian
railways on the dynamics of operational turnover (the first level of the model hierarchy after a priori
analysis) showed a direct relationship between these indicators. In particular, the variation in
emissions growth at the Lvivska Railway by 58% can be explained by changes in freight turnover (the
variation in the share of this indicator by almost 86.7% is due to the share in freight turnover). For the
Donetska Railway, it is 96.2% (for the share of 88.8%). The variation of emissions growth on the
Prydniprovska Railway by more than 70% can be explained by changes in freight turnover (but the
variation of the share of this indicator almost does not depend on the corresponding share in the
structure of freight turnover).
The variation of emissions on the Pivdenna Railway is almost 80%, which can be explained by
changes in the dynamics of freight turnover, but the structural indicators are not clear, as well as for
the Prydniprovska Railway. The greatest dependence is observed for the Pivdenno-Zakhidna Railway
(more than 93.2% of the variation; while for structural indicators a close connection exists).
The exception to all railways is Odeska, because no connection between emissions variation and
freight turnover in absolute terms, although the corresponding structural indicators are 67.6%
dependent. In general, the coefficient of determination of 88.5% is indicative for JSC
"Ukrzaliznytsia". The adequacy of the applied models is confirmed by the relevant statistical criteria,
the probability is 0.95 (Fig. 6-19).
1400000
1200000
1000000
thousand UAH
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lvivska railway Donetska railway Prydniprovska railway
Pivdenna railway Pivdenno-Zakhidna railway Odeska railway
JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia"
Figure 6: Dynamics of environmental protection expenditure of the Ukrainian railways in 2007-2019
400000
R² = 0,5899
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
Figure 7: Dependence of emissions of Lvivska Railway on the dynamics of operational freight
turnover in 2007-2019
400000
350000 R² = 0,9622
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000
Figure 8: Dependence of emissions of Donetska Railway on the dynamics of operational freight
turnover in 2007-2019
300000
R² = 0,7088
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
Figure 9: Dependence of emissions of Prydniprovska Railway on the dynamics of operational freight
turnover in 2007-2019
500000
400000 R² = 0,7965
300000
200000
100000
0
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
Figure 10: Dependence of emissions of Pivdenna Railway on the dynamics of operational freight
turnover in 2007-2019
300000
R² = 0,9324
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
Figure 11: Dependence of emissions of Pivdenno-Zakhidna Railway on the dynamics of operational
freight turnover in 2007-2019
450000
400000 R² = 0,2383
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
105000 110000 115000 120000 125000 130000
Figure 12: Dependence of emissions of Odeska Railway on the dynamics of operational freight
turnover in 2007-2019
2500000
R² = 0,885
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000
Figure 13: Dependence of emissions of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" on the dynamics of operational freight
turnover in 2007-2019
25
R² = 0,867
20
15
10
5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Figure 14: Dependence of the share of emissions of Lvivska Railway on the dynamics of the share of
operational freight turnover in 2007-2019
25
R² = 0,8879
20
15
10
5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Figure 15: Dependence of the share of emissions of Donetska Railway on the dynamics of the share
of operational freight turnover in 2007-2019
16
R² = 0,0228
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Figure 16: Dependence of the share of emissions of Prydniprovska Railway on the dynamics of the
share of operational freight turnover in 2007-2019
25
R² = 0,1759
20
15
10
5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Figure 17: Dependence of the share of emissions of Pivdenna Railway on the dynamics of the share
of operational freight turnover in 2007-2019
18
R² = 0,6453
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Figure 18: Dependence of the share of emissions of Pivdenno-Zakhidna Railway on the dynamics of
the share of operational freight turnover in 2007-2019
22
R² = 0,6759
21,5
21
20,5
20
19,5
19
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Figure 19: Dependence of the share of emissions of Odeska Railway on the dynamics of the share of
operational freight turnover in 2007-2019
As a result of the study of the dependence of growth rates (decrease) of emissions by the railways
of Ukraine, it was found that it exists for all railways except the Pivdenna Railway and Prydniprovska
Railway (second level of the hierarchical model). This dependence can also be traced for JSC
"Ukrzaliznytsia" as a whole. The calculation results confirm that environmental protection projects do
contribute to reducing СО2 emissions (Fig. 20-26). However, it is necessary to study why these
conclusions are not valid for the Pivdenna Railway, because for some time it was the leader in the
share of environmental expenditure.
100
90 R² = 0,7162
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Figure 20: The dependence of growth rates of emissions of Lvivska Railway on the growth rates of
environmental expenditure in 2007-2019
120,00
y = -0,0035x2 + 1,0827x + 13,393
R² = 0,9275
100,00
80,00
60,00
40,00
20,00
0,00
0,00 50,00 100,00 150,00 200,00 250,00
Figure 21: The dependence of growth rates of emissions of Donetska Railway on the growth rates of
environmental expenditure in 2007-2019
120
100
R² = 0,4181
80
60
40
20
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Figure 22: The dependence of growth rates of emissions of Prydniprovska Railway on the growth
rates of environmental expenditure in 2007-2019
120
100
80
60
40
y = 2E-12x4 - 3E-08x3 + 0,0001x2 - 0,1093x + 81,002
R² = 0,2337
20
0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Figure 23: The dependence of growth rates of emissions of Pivdenna Railway on the growth rates of
environmental expenditure in 2007-2019
100
90
80
70
60 y = -0,0005x2 + 0,2814x + 43,997
50 R² = 0,7101
40
30
20
10
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Figure 24: The dependence of growth rates of emissions of Pivdenno-Zakhidna Railway on the
growth rates of environmental expenditure in 2007-2019
120
y = 2E-06x3 - 0,0017x2 + 0,4686x + 36,204
100 R² = 0,7693
80
60
40
20
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Figure 25: The dependence of growth rates of emissions of Odeska Railway on the growth rates of
environmental expenditure in 2007-2019
100
90
80
70
60 R² = 0,716
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Figure 26: The dependence of growth rates of emissions of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" on the growth rates
of environmental expenditure in 2007-2019
5. Conclusions and further research
It was practically implemented the proposed hierarchical model of dependence between: 1)
operational turnover and the amount of СО2 emissions by the relevant sources of pollution in terms of
their volume and structure (the first level of the hierarchy); 2) environmental expenditure and the
amount of СО2 emissions (the second level of the hierarchy). In the future, the developed model can
be applied to identify problematic objects in railway transport, for which the magnitude and share of
environmental expenditure in total does not affect the reduction of СО2 emissions. The proposed
model allows to assess the indirect effectiveness of environmental projects on railways with the
separation of objects that demonstrate the lack of relationship between the size of environmental
expenditure and СО2 emissions. It was found that the Pivdenna and Prydniprovska railways during
the study period were not the largest consumers of diesel fuel, so this fact can not explain the lack of
relationship between environmental expenditure and СО2 emissions. Such a conclusion may be an
indirect evidence of inefficient distribution and formation of environmental expenditure of Ukrainian
railways. Subsequent studies of these railways may reveal the nature of the reasons for the lack of
such a connection. The approbation of the model for other branches of the national economy seems
promising.
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