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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Non-Deterministic Solvers and Explainable AI through Tra jectory Mining</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Martin Fyvie</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>John A.W. McCall</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Lee A. Christie</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>The Robert Gordon University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Garthdee Road, Aberdeen</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UK">UK</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Traditional methods of creating explanations from complex systems involving the use of AI have resulted in a wide variety of tools available to users to generate explanations regarding algorithm and network designs. This however has traditionally been aimed at systems that mimic the structure of human thought such as neural networks. The growing adoption of AI systems in industries has led to research and roundtables regarding the ability to extract explanations from other systems such as Non-Deterministic algorithms. This family of algorithms can be analysed but the explanation of events can often be di cult for non-experts to understand. Mentioned is a potential path to the generation of explanations that would not require expert-level knowledge to be correctly understood.1</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>XAI</kwd>
        <kwd>Non-Deterministic</kwd>
        <kwd>Trajectories</kwd>
        <kwd>Data Mining</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Explainable AI (XAI) Adoption has been an area of growing interest for
several years and as the adoption of AI decision making systems continues to
increase, the need for explanations of a suitable quality by the end user has also
grown. This growth in adoption of AI decision making processes in industries in
which explanations are critical, such as the medical eld, has lead to increased
awareness of the need for high quality explanations regarding the decisions and
recommendations that these systems provide. As seen in the collection of
recommendations and conclusions from PHG [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], the issue of explainability regarding
black box systems in industries has become a matter of much concern. Some of
the themes from the series of talks and round tables closely match the three
pillars of Accountability, Responsibility and Transparency outlined as the \ART"
principals for AI from the comprehensive survey of explanation methods for AI
in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]:
{ Accountability { refers to the need to explain and justify one's decisions and
actions to its partners, users and others with whom the system interacts
1 Copyright © 2021 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative
      </p>
      <p>Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
{ Responsibility refers to the role of people themselves and to the capability
of AI systems to answer for one's decision and identify errors or unexpected
results
{ Transparency refers to the need to describe, inspect and reproduce the
mechanisms through which AI systems make decisions and learn to adapt to its
environment, and to the governance of the data used and created.</p>
      <p>As methods of explanation generation continue to develop over time it is key
that, as industry adoption and regulation grows, so does the ability to explain
the solutions provided by such AI systems. This in turn may aid in the
acceptance of a set of solutions generated by the end user and an overall increase
in understanding of the search methods and how the solutions were arrived at
by the end user. Historically, this area of research has focused on optimisation
systems that mimic the thought processes of human reasoning. These processes
can be traced, and the path taken by these systems, such as Arti cial Neural
Networks, can be somewhat more readily derived and understood by the end
users of these systems.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Non-Deterministric Solvers</title>
      <p>Non-Deterministic Solvers or Non-Deterministic Algorithms are a metaheuristic
search method that search for a solution or set of solutions to a given problem
using stochastic processes. These stochastic processes, such as those in
populationbased algorithms like Genetic algorithms, capture in a series of steps the learnings
of the algorithm as they solve the optimisation problem rather than through the
use of prior knowledge. This method allows the algorithm to avoid an exhaustive
search of the problem space with the trade-o that solutions are often near-ideal.
The stochastic search processes utilised mean that the creation of explanations
based on a technical description of the decision points of an NDA tend to be
difcult for non-experts and most end users to understand due to their complexity
and need for prior knowledge of the system itself.</p>
      <p>As an example, consider a delivery scheduling system for packages. It may fall
on a company representative to attempt to explain the order that delivery sites
were placed in or why a customer's site is the last to be visited. The exact
path taken by an NDA cannot be predicted in advance and so with each run, a
slightly di erent schedule may be created. A signi cant barrier to explanation
in this scenario would be the end users lack of detailed information on how the
scheduling system algorithm operates and how each decision was arrived at in
order to form the solution provided.
3</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Current Solutions</title>
      <p>
        Existing approaches to the explanation of decision points within AI systems
include the use of surrogate models. This approach involves the creation of an
external and more easily understood model that is trained on the results of the
Non-Deterministic Solvers and Explainable AI through Trajectory Mining
NDA. The extraction of explanations is then performed on this surrogate model
in order to discover how solutions were arrived at. Examples of this approach
can be seen the Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations
system (LIME)[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. Another example is the SHapley Additive exPlanations [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]
(SHAP) game-theory based approach using its internal metrics of Local
Accuracy, Missingness and Consistency to calculate the in uence if individual features
in a variety of AI systems. The output from these methods can often be used in
conjunction with Natural Language Generation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ] techniques to create
contentspeci c explanations using a rules-based approach. This can be seen in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ] in
which the output from the LIME system is entered into a set of pre-generated
sentences to give the end user a better understanding of the algorithm solution,
in this case credit decisions, to produce sentences such as\. . . The single greatest
contribution to the decision is from the variable `current account' with the value
of `in debit' this produced 40% of the whole decision, in uencing the algorithm
to refuse credit. . . "
A novel approach to this problem that may provide a new avenue of explanation
generation is the post-hoc analysis of the changes between populations
generated by NDAs. This has the bene t of avoiding further runs of an algorithm as
the populations of solutions has already been created and chart the trajectory
through the solution space that the algorithm has taken to arrive at the solution
or set of solutions o ered to the end user.
4
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Algorithm Trajectories</title>
      <p>Algorithm Trajectories represents the collective implicit knowledge gained by
a population-based algorithm as it traverses the solution space for high tness
solutions to a provided problem and all decision steps taken. This knowledge
is comprised of the populations created throughout the search process. Each
population contains a set of solutions selected by the algorithm for their tness
and throughout the search the solutions are altered with the intent to increase
their tness. Over time as higher tness patterns are found within any given
population, these may propagate throughout, leading to an overall decrease in
population diversity as the search converges in a set of similar near-optimal
solutions. Collectively, these populations over the course of one or more optimisation
runs can be considered the Algorithm Trajectory.</p>
      <p>
        This may prove to be a rich source of features and statistical evidence that can
be mined and visualised with the aim of generating an explanation with suitable
detail as to increase the end users ability to understand the problem and how
the decision was arrived at. The results of mining this algorithm trajectory, in
the form of visualisations and statistical gures, can then be used to develop
an explanation that is more easily understood through the inclusion of Natural
Language Generation (NLG) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ] in a similar manor to the examples mentioned
earlier in this paper.
      </p>
      <p>
        One example of using the post-hoc method of algorithm trajectory mining to
generate visualisations for the purpose of algorithm comparison can be seen in
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ]. In this paper the authors present the structure \Search Trajectory Networks"
building on local optima networks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ] values determined in such a way that it is
possible to visualise the exact path taken across the solution landscape by the
tested algorithms. This has the potential to add support to explanations
generated in a similar fashion to the earlier examples that use NLG in combination
with LIME coe cient outputs and SHAP values.
5
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Conclusion</title>
      <p>
        While it is possible to generate explanations that cover the decision points of
NDAs and their path through the search space, they often require expert-level
knowledge of the model and concepts to understand. In this position paper, we
hypothesise that it is possible to develop a method following a similar path to
the previously mentioned surrogate model and LIME / SHAP example. This
hypothesised method would draw valuable statistical evidence and information on
problem structure from the algorithm trajectories generated during an
optimisation run. This post-hoc approach would involve using NLG to convert numerical
and scienti c data into human-understandable sentences and paragraphs while
being supported by visualisation techniques such as those outlined in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ]. This
approach has the potential to be a valuable source of human-understandable
explanations for complex NDA based systems with the aim of increasing end
user trust in the solutions provided.
      </p>
    </sec>
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