The article discusses the results of the analysis of methods and models for predicting road safety. The problem of creating mathematical models and software for describing and analyzing traffic processes is very relevant. The analysis of the study of road traffic accidents is given and the cause-and-effect relationships of road traffic and the conditions for the occurrence of problem situations are established. The task of developing a methodology for predicting and preventing road accidents with the aim of reducing road accidents is being solved. An example of a simulation model that describes the route network of a city is given. A computer experiment was able to trace the congestion of sections of the road network. This work is devoted to solving a number of problems associated with this problem, aimed at improving the quality of the city's transport system by reducing the likelihood of an accident and eliminating the downtime of route vehicles due to congestion and traffic jams, and also contributes to the timely delivery of passengers to a certain destination. With the help of the developed model, it is possible to study bottlenecks of transport services, assess the traffic situation, reduce tension and the number of accidents on the roads, improve the environmental situation, identify further directions of development and improvement.
Russian Federation for 2018 - 2024 (Strategy), approved by the order of the Government of the Russian
Federation dated January 08, 2018 No. 1-r. The main goal of the Strategy is to strive for zero mortality
rates on the roads by 2030, and the target for 2024 is the level of social risk, which is no more than 4
deaths as a result of road traffic accidents per 100 thousand population [
demographic damage to the Russian economy. 2007 to 2016 271 thousand people died in road
accidents, 2.5 million people were injured. More than 30% of those killed in road accidents are citizens
of active working age (26-40 years), 20% of the victims remain disabled. Every year, the economic
losses of the state from road accidents amount to about 2% of the gross domestic product [
and passenger traffic requires constant work to ensure road safety, reduce the number of accidents and
eliminate the places of concentration of accidents [
The priority areas specified in the Strategy include: Changing the behavior of road users, aimed at unconditional compliance with the rules and regulations Increasing the protection from road accidents and their consequences for the most vulnerable road users, especially children and pedestrians Improvement of the road network in terms of road safety, including the development of work on the organization of road traffic Improvement of organizational and legal mechanisms for admitting vehicles and their drivers to participate in road traffic Improvement of the road safety management system - development of the system of assistance and rescue of victims of road accidents
effect relationship of road traffic and the conditions for the occurrence of an accident.
accident without increasing the duration of the examination. The use of electronic computers in the
investigation of road accidents is not something new. Since 1964, the All-Russian Scientific Research
Institute of Forensic Expertise has introduced into expert practice the program "Autoex" program into
expert practice, designed to study pedestrian collisions [
State Technical University. Its main feature is that it is universal for any type of collision. When calculating for each collision, its own program is used, and the machine gives only the results of calculations and conclusions. This system was further developed in the form of the Expert Analysis application package. Here, an interactive mode of operation already took place: the program sequentially required the expert to enter the corresponding initial data from the keyboard. At the end of the input, the system draws up the input data in the form of tables and displays it on the monitor so that the expert can check their correctness. Then the entered data is accepted for calculation, which occurs in several stages, depending on the algorithm. At the end of the calculation process, the machine displays the calculation results and outputs on the screen or, if necessary, prints out.
There is one more system "Expertise-4" based on the analog computing device MN-10. The main difference between analog and digital computers is that in this device data is represented in the form of analog physical quantities that are continuously changing over time. Each device is designed according to a specific scheme in accordance with the tasks it solves. The "Expertise-4" system is designed to investigate pedestrian collisions and collisions. There are various programmable calculators that are easy to use but don't have as much computing power. A comprehensive analysis of existing methods for analyzing road safety indicators is reflected in the work of L S Abramova [13].
, Accidents per 1 million auto – km. where z – is the number of accidents during the time period T; T – time period, [days]; N – the average annual traffic intensity (average over the time period T), [auto/day]; L is the length of the road section,
, Traffic accidents for 1 million vehicles.
data, is a method that allows you to determine the danger of a road section [
– hazard indicator; p0,…,p3 – conditional accident severity factors; n0,…,n3 – the number of road accidents with material damage, minor injury, severe injury and death of people, respectively.
The value of the hazard
intensity, is calculated by the formula [
for the highway, taking into account the value of the average daily – hazard indicator; pi – severity coefficient of road accidents in this group; ni – number of accidents in this group; l – highway length, [m].; Na – average daily traffic intensity.
– danger of conflict point; – the relative accident rate of the conflict point; и intensity on the main and secondary roads, respectively, intersecting flows at a given conflict point, – traffic [auto/day];
– coefficient of annual unevenness of movement; a factor of 25 has been introduced into the formula to take into account the average number of working days in a month during which the road load sharply exceeds the load on non-working days.
where Vmax – is the maximum speed of movement in the area under consideration; Venter – the maximum speed of vehicles entering the area under consideration.
where Ki – partial accident rates, determined from the analysis of statistical data on road accidents and characterizing the impact on traffic safety of road and street parameters, infrastructure elements, traffic intensity, coverage condition; i = [1,…,n]– the number of partial accident rates taken into account when assessing traffic safety on roads or city streets of various categories.
the Gn index is calculated by the formula [
– theoretically probable number of accidents at the intersection in 1 year; n – is the number of conflict points at the intersection; M – is the intensity on the main road, [auto/day]; N – the same for the secondary road. where Ka – traffic safety indicator characterizing the number of accidents per 10 million vehicles
where
– conflict index for the i-th conflict point.
set of factors - technical, ergonomic and economic [13]: where f – normal heart rate; f0 – heart rate when driving conditions change.
(9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) а 3
5 , ∑ ,
⋅ 100,
The results of the analysis of methods for determining road safety based on the research results of L
assessing the danger of a maneuver and the danger of a network section
The complexity of accounting for a large amount of data due to the large amount of resources involved ‐ vehicle detectors, a laboratory car, etc.
one element (driver) does not correspond to the comprehensive assessment of road safety
settlements
The accident rate is determined according to the indicators of the first group, which does not allow for a comprehensive
assessment
to traffic rules are not taken into account They do not allow to take into account
changes in the parameters of traffic conditions and methods of organizing traffic
different speeds and different capacities, leaving at a given time interval on the line, move along routes from one stopping point to another, stop in them, drop passengers and pick up people from stops. The appearance of people at stops is also set according to a certain law, depending on the time of day.
stopping points) at each moment of time. The degree of congestion of the sections of the city's route network on the model is determined by the color coloration. Since during the day the intensity of passenger traffic changes, and the color of the sections of the city's route network in the model will also change depending on the number of vehicles on the stretch at a given time.
The results of the experiment on the simulation model give grounds for developing recommendations for optimizing the city's route network, for changing some routes for urban passenger transport, in order to bypass the most congested sections. In addition, such an analysis is aimed at improving the quality of the city's transport system by reducing the likelihood of accidents and eliminating the downtime of route vehicles due to congestion and traffic jams, and also contributes to the timely delivery of passengers.
Analysis of the results of the simulation experiment indicates that one of the central avenues of the city is overloaded, since the main part of the routes runs along this avenue. In order to study the possibility of unloading the specified section on the model, the intervals of bus movement along one of the routes were changed. It was found that this measure helps to reduce tension in the area under consideration. In addition, the analysis of the filling of vehicles and queues at stops showed that even with a reduction in the number of vehicles on the route, the transport needs of the population will be fully satisfied (the indicated changes in the model parameters led to a slight increase in the waiting time for a vehicle at a stop).
The model of a real transport system is built on the basis of an object-oriented approach Visualization of the model allows you to easily identify the most congested sections of the city's transport network that require redistribution of traffic flows
Methods based on the determination of indicators that characterize the security of road users are used to assess the state of road safety. During the analysis of each method, the main positive and negative aspects were identified. Based on the results of theoretical studies, a scientific concept for reducing the number of road accidents was formulated, which is based on three conceptual provisions: On the representation of emergency situations in the form of a set of parameters and variables of the "driver-car-road-environment" system It is necessary to determine the "weighting coefficients" of the parameters and variables of the "driver-car-road-environment" system affecting the likelihood of an accident - it is necessary to conduct statistical monitoring of the parameters of the objects of the system "driver-car-roadenvironment" for adaptive traffic control in order to predict and accident prevention
experiment based on its use will improve the quality of transport services for the population, will help reduce tension on city roads and, as a result, reduce the number of accidents, and will also lead to an improvement in the environmental situation in some districts of the city.
[11] J. Barceló, E. Codina, J. Casas, J. L. Ferrer, D. García, Microscopic traffic simulation: A tool for the design, analysis and evaluation of intelligent transport systems, Journal of intelligent and robotic systems 41 (2005) 173-203. doi:10.1007/s10846-005-3808-2. [12] J. De Cea, E. Fernández, Transit assignment for congested public transport systems: an equilibrium model, Transportation science 27 (1993) 133-147. [13] L. S. Abramova, V. V. Shirin, G. G. Ptitsa, Analysis of methods for determining indicators of road safety, Bulletin of Kharkiv National Automobile and Road University 1 (2015) 118-123.