The article is devoted to modeling scenarios for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sphere of the region. The paper notes the importance of resource and institutional support for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sector of the Big Yalta region. Priority elements of the institutional support system make it possible to develop activities and scenarios for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sphere of the region. Based on the priority elements of the institutional support system, measures and scenarios for the development of the region have been developed. Based on the results of further research using the method of cognitive modeling, an assessment of the prospects for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sphere of the Big Yalta region shows that it is necessary to pay attention to the modernization and organization of the work of the recreational and resort complex of the subregion. The problems are associated with the moral and physical obsolescence of the recreational and general infrastructure, and irrational use. There is also no constructive dialogue between the private and public sectors as users of the recreational potential. The development of the subregion must be considered in the process of the development of Crimea, neighboring regions, and settlements. The need to develop a sanatorium and resort complex as one of the main sources of income during the off-season and employment of the population is noted. This work aims to analyze scenarios for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sphere of the Big Yalta region based on the use of cognitive technology methods.
The Republic of Crimea is a unique region of the Russian Federation, which has a powerful natural and climatic, landscape, historical and cultural, recreational, and resort *
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complex, which is the basis for the development of the health resort and tourism sector
[
Despite the resource potential of the region, problems arise regarding the effective use of the potential and the sufficiency of demand for a recreational product. In the process of research, economic phenomena in the recreational sector of the region are presented as a set of multifactorial and interconnected occurring phenomena characterized by constant variability of their causes. All changes in political, social, and economic aspects can be considered as factors for the development of entrepreneurship in this area. In the process of researching entrepreneurial activity, there is a problem of insufficient quantitative information, which allows the use of qualitative characteristics with the determination of their quantitative assessment. Regardless of the complexity of such situations, decisions are required regarding the methods and tools used in solving the problem.
The number of factors in the studied situations can be not only many but also their
significance and state depend on other changing conditions. This situation makes it
possible to characterize many institutional formations that are emerging in the economy
as semi-structured systems and to use the means of cognitive modeling to solve the set
goals and objectives. This method is developed by scientists N. A. Abramova [
Purpose of the study. To analyze scenarios for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sphere of the region based on the use of cognitive technology methods. 2
The problem associated with the development of entrepreneurship as a form of realization of the recreational potential requires the development of certain measures, the effectiveness of which depends on the assessment of the state of the system of institutional factors that ensure entrepreneurship in the field of recreation. The number of factors in the studied situations can be not only many but also their significance and state depend on other changing conditions.
The development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sphere of the region depends on such groups of factors [9; 10].
1) The first four factors are related to the resource potential of the region: a) the natural component, or as it is customary to call the land in economic theory, which implies all-natural conditions and resources (natural reserve fund, beach resources, hydromineral resources, climatic factor);
b) the quantity and quality of social and labor resources (local, visitors, and other regions of the population);
c) the amount of fixed capital and other material resources (recreation and resort complex, cultural and historical resources, catering and trade infrastructure);
The availability of more and more quality resources, including information, enables the production of more recreational products and services.
The next two groups of factors are associated with the extensiveness and intensity of entrepreneurship development.
2) For the extensive development of entrepreneurship, the following must be provided:
a) informational representation of the region both in the Internet space and at various forums, fairs, and exhibitions;
b) favorable economic conditions for doing business and financial support in the field of lending.
Conditions of this kind contribute to an increase in demand for a recreational product and the maximum possible employment of recreational resources.
3) Factors of intensive development of entrepreneurship are economic efficiency. a) distribution efficiency - the best use of resources, ensuring the production of the most important products and services, including recreational ones;
b) production efficiency - the use of resources that ensures production at the lowest cost.
The necessary market conditions, combined with the state mechanism of influence on the economy, contributing to the formation of infrastructure in interaction with the natural component, are the result of the action of the institutional conditions for the development of entrepreneurship.
t is worth noting the importance of one of the sides of the state mechanism for regulating the economy since the impact on the environment is not reflected in various economic indicators of enterprises' activities. The negative impact on the social and natural environment is not shown, and in the case of the recreational orientation of the region, there is a direct impact on the formation of the recreational benefit, which consists not only of the results of the activities of enterprises but also the action of natural and social factors.
In the process of research, there is a problem of insufficient quantitative information necessary to assess the processes occurring in the economy, which makes it possible to use qualitative characteristics. Regardless of the complexity of such situations, decisions are required regarding the methods and tools used in solving the problem. Cognitive technology in its complex widely uses the method of simulation of complex semistructured systems. This approach is based on the cognitive aspects of the activity of cognition and adaptation of a person to environmental conditions, which has a similarity in structure in the activities of experts in various fields [11; 12].
Cognitive technology consists of the following stages: immersion in the problem; building a graph based on key factors and causation; functional graph, that is, modeling [13; 14].
To structure information on the significance of the basic factors of the system,
sensitivity analysis was used, which is necessary for constructing a graph and
implementing scenario modeling. Sensitivity analysis allows you to establish the causal
relationship between the factors of the system, that is, how one factor affects the state of others,
to determine the value of the factor for the system and the effect of the system on its
state. As experts, we've involved: representatives of the Ministry of Resorts and
Tourism R Crimea, heads of enterprises of the tourism industry in Yalta, as well as teachers
of higher educational institutions who are researching this problem [
The mechanism for the development of entrepreneurship in the recreational sphere
of the region means interaction in the transmission of movement in the aggregate of the
whole (system) by the receipt of an impulse in the element of the system, which
determines the directions of development of recreational and tourist activities [
In the process of sensitivity analysis, such matrix indicators are calculated as: - the sum of the row of a specific key factor shows its ability to influence the system, and the result is expressed in the “asset” column of the stimulation and inhibition matrices;
- the sum of the column of a specific key factor shows the system's ability to influence this factor, and the result is expressed in the line "passive" of the stimulation and inhibition matrices;
- the product of the results of the “asset” row and the “liability” column of a particular factor shows the degree of interaction in the system;
- the result of dividing the amount of “asset” by the amount of “liability” of a particular factor shows the level of its activity in the system (if the value is <1, then the factor is more influenced by the factors of the system than to influence it). For clarity of expression of the role of factors, a coordinate system can be used, on which the ordinate and abscissa are the degrees of interaction and activity (Figure 1). s r o t c a f f o n o i t c a r e t n i f o e e r g e d e h T
* Compiled by the author based on expert estimates
Each factor, according to the results of two matrices, will have two points in the
coordinate system, where one characterizes the stimulation, and the other - inhibition [
The factor is characterized by the degree of activity and interaction in the system: – the factor is passive and lends itself to strong influence from the factors of the system; – the factor is active, amenable to strong influence from the factors of the system, and, therefore, has a strong degree of interaction; – factor weakly affects the state of the system and strongly depends on it, while there is a weak degree of interaction in the system; – the factor has little effect on the system and the system has little impact on it.
The listed indicators make it possible to determine the role of a factor in terms of its significance for the system using indicators such as the level of activity and the degree of interaction in the system. The next stage of cognitive research based on the causal relationships of factors is the construction of a cognitive map, which is a partial similarity in the construction methodology with the stimulation and inhibition matrices.
According to the results of the analysis of the conducted questionnaires, the relations of each pair of factors Fi, Fj were formed arcs for constructing a graph and an adjacency matrix. In the questionnaires, it was required to indicate the values: positive, negative, zero. Based on problematic institutional factors, behavioral modeling scenarios were developed that allow determining the necessary combinations of factors and are based on the desired impulse effects on the mechanism as a system (following Table 1). Qf3=+1 Qf6=+1 Qf3=–1 Q4=–1 Qf2=+1 Qf6=–1 Qf9=–1 Qf2=+1 Qf6=+1 Qf9=+1 +1 * Compiled by the author based on expert estimates
Impulse arrival at the top of Figure 2. According to the impulse scenario, an increase in the level of investment activity in the region contributes to the improvement of the material and technical base of recreation and tourism, the development of the training system, etc. The growth of indicators is observed from the third cycle of modeling. The results are presented in a table of the values of the graph vertices after the simulation of the generated impulse (Table 2). * Compiled by the author based on expert estimates
Impulse arrival at the top of graph F3. According to the impulse scenario, an increase in the level of investment activity in the region contributes to the improvement of the material and technical base of recreation and tourism, the development of the training system, etc. The growth of indicators is observed from the third cycle of modeling. For more rapid growth of regional development indicators, a set of measures is required to influence the system (Table 3) (Fig. 3), which is a complex process of the propagation of disturbances on the graph. The arrival of impulses to the vertices of graphs F3 and F6. According to the development of the scenario of generated impulses: an increase in the level of investment activity in the region, budget financing, and public-private partnerships contribute to the improvement of the material and technical base of recreation and tourism, etc. The growth of indicators is observed immediately after the third cycle of modeling and a significant effect is observed after the fourth cycle of modeling. * Compiled by the author on the basis of expert estimates X(5) 154 180 151 135 20 45 54 197 48 -115 59 90 -12
X(6) 666 752 628 583 117 200 225 795 208 -505 245 376 -53 -200 -400 -600
l F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F12 F13 * Compiled by the author based on expert estimates
Negative arrival of impulses (Table 4) (Figure 4), at the vertices of the graphs F3 and F4. * Compiled by the author based on expert estimates
According to the development of the scenario of generated impulses: a decrease in the level of investment activity in the region, a deterioration in the indicator of the competitiveness of tourist and recreational services, are the result of the absence of any actions. This situation is a trend characterized by a slight decline, but after the fourth cycle of modeling, a significant drop in the main indicators of the system is observed. There is an increase in the level of uniformity of loading of the RP since the industry transfers the decline in production during periods of habitual activity, which in the future will require the development of other non-seasonal industries. * Compiled by the author based on expert estimates
Negative arrival of impulses to the vertices of the graph (Table 5) (Figure. 5) F6, F9, and positive in F2. According to the development of this scenario of generated negative impulses, a decrease in the main indicators is observed as well as in the previous scenario, but along with this, there is a faster increase in the level of uniformity of loading of the RP, due to the development of innovations in tourist and recreational services and medical tourism, which makes it possible to extend the seasonality or distribute the load on the RP. * Compiled by the author based on expert estimates
In the fifth scenario, a significant increase in system performance is observed, especially after the fifth simulation cycle. Of the simulated development scenarios, this is the most favorable for the system. Factors Qf6 = + 1, Qf9 = + 1 provide positive impulses to the top of the system and cause balanced development of tourism positive impulses to arrive at the vertices F2, F6, and F9. The arrival of an impulse to vertices F2, F6, and F9 (Table 6). -200 -300
l F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F12 F13 * Compiled by the author on the basis of expert estimates
The impulse is given to the top Qf2 = + 1, which is reflected in the development of entrepreneurship, innovation in tourism and recreation services, and medical tourism during the off-season. * Compiled by the author based on expert estimates 3
The fifth modeled development scenario is the most favorable for the system. Factors Qf6 = + 1, Qf9 = + 1 provide positive impulses to the top of the system, which is reflected in the development of entrepreneurship in the field of innovation in tourism and recreation services and medical tourism during the off-season.
The use of cognitive technology makes it possible to obtain a qualitative assessment of the interaction of factors, scenario development of the situation, and trends, as well as evaluate the results of the proposed activities. F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 F9 F10 F11 F12 F13