The article proposes a unified approach to the development of structures of scalable flow diagrams of system dynamics, as well as the construction of an experimental simulation system-dynamic model for managing financial and intellectual resources of a digital project.
It is known a variety of dynamics approach applications in the management of complex systems
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The ambiguity in the development of such an approach is associated with insufficient elaboration of the idea of transforming possible formats for structuring controls. As a rule, a tabular-tuple representation is used for project management, which is quite logically implemented in a discrete-event approach to simulation, and system dynamics tends to scalar flows with a constant discrete.
In this regard, the task of developing a unified approach to the description of vector project management processes in scalable flow diagrams of system dynamics arises, which determined the purpose of this work.
Today, the range of corporate applications for the tasks of improving the development strategy of complex interaction systems based on the methods of system dynamics is developing mainly in two directions: the so-called "systems thinking of managers", formed with the help of casual or cause-effect diagrams in the formation of mental models of management, and serious scenario strategic research carried out on simulation models, detailed for the strategic tasks of managing processes in business systems. The development of the architectural approach, as a continuation of the systemic one, in the tasks of designing processes, including project management processes, as well as the rapid development of data and information management technologies in companies, orients top managers to the use of standard and effective approaches to substantiating management decisions.
The transition of companies to data-driven management has shown the need to develop digital projects to create new digital products and services, use digital design technologies, as well as web applications for managing analytics and customer data. The demand has increased for the development of web-oriented digital projects for managing the transformation of production and creating a supply network, as well as the introduction of corporate digital platforms for information interaction and electronic document management of distributed companies, etc.
Such project activities require funding. However, traditional methods of financial control are not
always suitable for assessing the effectiveness of the use of financial resources of digital projects. The
architectural approach implies the existence of different levels of architecture for the designed control
system. In this regard, the system dynamics method forms the basis for detailing high-level definitions
and design of business architecture and information technology at various levels of management. The
question is in the application of the technology of decomposition of complex systems and in what level
should be given priority for certain solutions [
The article proposes a system-dynamic model for managing the resources of a digital project, which, by simulating the contribution of such factors as the speed of completion of work on the project, the average cost of digital projects, the average number of completed projects per year, etc. (see Figure 1: Cause-effect diagram for a digital project resource management model), will determine the best strategy for the distribution of financial and intellectual resources of the project according to the criterion of its profitability. The levels, as accumulators of resources in the proposed model, are determined: labor intensity of work, the regulator of the intensity of the intellectual load of the project personnel, the amount of outstanding work on the project, accumulated capital, net cash flow, net discounted flow, project implementation time, payback period, the amount of profitability.
+ INCOME +
Average project profitability + where 0 – the initial moment of time adopted in the model; – the final moment of time adopted in the model;
+
Project scope + The amount of work performed per unit of
time Undistributed profits
Б Resourcebalancing connection
+ Income tax
Threat of reduced project
efficiency NPV by project
+
Project implementation time + Intellectual resources
Average number of projects per year Intellectual load by skill level + Profit growth of the company
PROFIT + +
+ sign: ∆ – modeling step (1 day).
Initially, all works (tasks) of a digital project set by the 2
level are initialized by the labor hours and executed in accordance with the labor input of . It has been input in
or determined that the execution of project works is possible only for unblocked works that have the : , = { 0| , = 1⋀ ≠ 0 1
, (1)
Signs of blocking work, that is, unavailability of its execution at the current time, are: the presence of previous work (hereinafter, prerequisites); non-zero backlog for at least one prerequisite. management of a digital project work on the project to the actual duration of the working day, and is also regulated by the multiplier for = { – labor costs of the project; – other costs for launching the project.
, where 3. Profit: where 4. Sum of profit tax:
where
Shows the relative profitability of the project. 8. Profitability index: 9. Average profitability: = = ∑ =1 , , (endogenous variables) at time . costs of the project.
1. Net present Value is determined by:
where – net cash flow at time ; the volume of work
, which for each experiment sets the intensity of the intellectual workload of the project staff, taking into account their qualifications. Let us formalize the main levels and variables of the model (formulas 1-13) to determine the dynamics of the main indicators of the model Net Present Value is the sum of the discounted simultaneous differences between the benefits and – profit; – sum of profit tax; – initial investment.
)
, – discount rate − , < 2 , > 1
, − , (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) = −1 + ∆ ,
Payback period - the expected period of recovery of the initial investment from net cash receipts.
= −1 + ∆ , Profitability index - the discounted value of cash receipts from the project per unit of investment.
Indicators of the financial efficiency of a digital project make it possible to determine the conditions for the distribution of financial resources for the work and tasks of the project, taking into account the regulation of the intellectual workload of the project personnel.
For simulation experiments, we will introduce the assumption that with an increase in the intensity of the intellectual load of the project personnel, taking into account the certain qualifications of the participants, the financial efficiency of the project will increase. At the same time, the marginal growth of financial efficiency will be stopped at the point where an increase in the intellectual load of the project personnel will no longer guarantee the growth of its financial indicators.
A common limitation for a digital project, as a relatively closed system for management, is the fixed amount of the initial investment allocated to the project. In this case, the finding of an optimal variant of using the intellectual resources of the involved personnel allows reducing the timing of the project and the cost of its development.
The qualification of workers is determined by the time during which a certain amount of work will be completed. Thus, the basic qualification level of the conventionally standard project participants is taken as 1, then the qualifications of workers who perform the same amount of work in less time will be determined by the ratio: =
– the time during which the project participants completed a certain amount of 0 – time during which conventionally standard project participants perform a certain When calculating the wage rate of a project participant, we introduce the function of regulating the intensity of the intellectual load from the level of basic qualifications, in the form of a multiplier, which is determined by the formula: where
– the bet of remuneration of the project participant.
0 – the bet of a conditionally standard project participant according to the base value of competencies.
– personnel load growth multiplier.
The multiplier of the growth of the workload on personnel is a power function that characterizes the change in the value of the qualification level of the project participant in the model:
= 0 ∙ , = , (12) (13) where – is a number from 1 to 2.
If the number is equal to one, then in this case project participants with higher qualifications will receive the same remuneration, performing a certain amount of work faster. If the number n is greater than one, then workers with higher qualifications will receive higher remuneration for completing a certain amount of work.
Based on a series of simulation experiments, we will find out the limiting value of the degree , at which the distribution of the intellectual load of the project participants and the financial return of the digital project reach the limiting value of their effectiveness. The experimental results are summarized Data from simulation experiments of a model for managing intellectual and financial resources of a
0,36 2,48 4.48 0.42 1.08 16878723,21 intellectual load of the project personnel is directly related to the determination of labor costs and is taken into account when calculating the salary rates for the project personnel, it is proposed, for the conditions of this example, to establish the maximum replacement rates for labor costs and financial resources of the project at level 1.3, since an increase in this value leads in Experiment 5 to an unacceptable decrease in the profitability index by 0.93.
The presented model is easily extensible without changing the core logic. The most promising areas of development for the application of the model are: the use of standard optimization tools to improve the performance of the project, increase the productivity of individual employees and labour productivity in general, ensure optimal use of resources and assign employees to certain jobs; distribution of performers for work within qualifications by changing priorities; time management of individual employees; planning the number of personnel and determining a rational system of remuneration for individual specialists, taking into account their involvement in the implementation of the project; personnel planning and outsourcing; planning personnel development programs aimed at acquiring new competencies that provide access to participation in solving specific project tasks, as well as aimed at increasing marginal productivity; setting tasks in the complex of the project economics; modelling the activities of the company as a whole by building a super-project.