=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2917/paper27
|storemode=property
|title=Comparative Analysis of Regression Regularization Methods for Life Expectancy Prediction
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2917/paper27.pdf
|volume=Vol-2917
|authors=Nataliya Boyko,Olena Moroz
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/momlet/BoykoM21
}}
==Comparative Analysis of Regression Regularization Methods for Life Expectancy Prediction==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2917/paper27.pdf
Comparative Analysis of Regression Regularization Methods for
Life Expectancy Prediction
Nataliya Boyko and Olena Moroz
Lviv Polytechnic National University, Profesorska Street 1, Lviv, 79013, Ukraine
Abstract
L1-, L2-, ElasticNet - regularizations of classification and regression were investigated in the
course of work. The purpose of the scientific work is to explore different methods of
regularization for life expectancy prediction, namely L1 -, L2, and ElasticNet regularization,
to implement them programmatically and to draw conclusions about the results. First of all,
the WHO Statistics on Life Expectancy dataset was analyzed, prepared and cleaned. It was
checked if the data types match the attributes of dataset. A linear regression model was
created using the scikit-learn library. After her training, the weights of the model features
were obtained and it was observed that the weights at strongly correlated features were
greater than the rest. To eliminate the problem of multicollinearity, 3 regularization methods
were applied and compared.
Keywords 1
regression regularization; linear regression, ElasticNet regularization, multicollinearity,
algorithm, machine learning, medicine
1. Introduction
The work is devoted to a comprehensive study of the regularization of regression for life
expectancy prediction.
Regularization in machine learning is a way to reduce the complexity of a model by adding some
additional constraints to the problem condition. The purpose of using regularization [1, 5]:
correct an incorrect task
prevent retraining
save resources
It is known that regression models have the predisposition to relearn. If the model is too heavy and
there is not enough data to determine its parameters, you can get some model that will describe the
training sample very well, but will generalize to the test sample much worse. There are several ways
to solve this problem:
Take more data
Disadvantage: very often this solution is not available, because additional data costs extra money
Use fewer features
Disadvantage: this requires a large number of subsets of features. However, the total number of
subsets that are meant to be sorted increases very rapidly in accordance with the increasing dimension
of the problem. A complete search is often unavailable.
Limit the weight of the features
Disadvantage: this method is often ineffective. Retraining can only be done to a certain extent.
MoMLeT+DS 2021: 3rdInternational Workshop on Modern Machine Learning Technologies and Data Science, June 5, 2021, Lviv-Shatsk,
Ukraine
EMAIL: nataliya.i.boyko@lpnu.ua (N. Boyko); olena.moroz.kn.2017@lpnu.ua (O. Moroz)
ORCID: 0000-0002-6962-9363 (N. Boyko); 0000-0003-4012-5142 (O. Moroz)
©️ 2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
Given the shortcomings of the above methods, the use of regularization in order to prevent model
retraining is a relevant and effective way to solve the problems of classification, regression and
learning of deep neural networks [2, 8].
Heavy weights are a measure of complexity and a sign of model retraining. Therefore, the modern
approach to reducing the generalization error is to use a larger model with the use of regularization
during training, which keeps the weight of the model small. This method leads to faster optimization
of the model and increase overall performance.
The purpose of the scientific work is to explore different methods of regularization for life
expectancy prediction, namely L1, L2, and ElasticNet regularization, to implement them
programmatically and to draw conclusions about the results [10,15].
2. Description of Linear regression
Linear regression - a model of the dependence of the variable x on one or more other variables
(features, factors) with a linear dependence function, which has the following form [8]:
d
( x) w0 w j x j (1)
j 1
Advantages of linear regression:
Speed and simplicity of obtaining the model.
Interpretation of the model. The linear model is transparent and understandable to the analyst. The
obtained regression coefficients can be used to judge how one or another factor affects the result, to
make additional useful conclusions on this basis.
Wide applicability. A large number of real processes in economics and business can be described
with sufficient accuracy by linear models.
Study of this approach. Typical problems (for example, multicollinearity) and their solutions are
known for linear regression, tests of estimation of static significance of the received models are
developed and implemented.
Linear regression quality metrics:
─ Mean square error [7, 17]:
1 l
MSE ( , X ) ( ( xi ) yi ) 2
l i 1
(2)
It is easy to optimize because it has a derivative at all points
Strong penalty for outliers
─ Average absolute error [4]:
1 l
MSE ( , X ) ( xi ) y i
l i 1
(3)
It is more difficult to optimize because it has no derivative at zero
High endurance to outliers
─ Coefficient of determination [12]:
( ( x ) y )
l 2
R ( , X ) 1 i 1
2 i i
(4)
( y yˆ )
l 2
i 1 i
This metric explains what proportion of variance in the entire target vector the linear model is able
to explain. That is, it reflects the proportion of variety of responses that the model is able to predict
[10-13].
For smart models 0 R 2 1 , when
R 2 – is an ideal model;
R 2 – the quality of the model coincides with the optimal constant algorithm (returns the
average answer for the entire training sample);
R 2 1 – the quality of the model is worse than the constant;
3. L1-regularization
L1 - Lasso regularization helps to improve the generalization of test data by selecting the most important
factors that most strongly influence the result. Factors with a small value get the value of zero and do not
affect the final result. In fact, they only help to predict noise in the training data set [17, 19].
General formula:
N D
L1 ( y n yˆ n ) 2 w j , (5)
i 1 j 1
where λ is the regularization coefficient.
The larger the value of λ, the more features are converted to zero and the simpler the model
becomes.
The parameter can be reset to zero if:
It has a value close to zero
Its value changes greatly when changing the sample (large variance)
Its removing has the least effect on changing the value of the error function
Thus, L1 - regularization contributes to the sparseness of the function, when only a few
factors of the model are not equal to zero. This can completely eliminate some features and
mitigate the multicollinearity and complexity of the model. The disadvantage of this approach
may be the complexity of the optimization process, because the L1-regularizer is not smooth
(has no derivative at zero).
Multicollinearity is the presence of a linear relationship between features in a sample [20].
That is, the existence of a vector of values of a certain feature on all objects, which is expressed
through vectors of other features. In this case, regardless of the selected object, the result of the
sum of the products of the coefficients on the value of the features will be equal to zero.
1 xi1 ... d xi 0
or
, xi 0 .
Therefore, the problem with multicollinearity is that it leads to an infinitely large number of
optimal algorithms, many of which have large values of weights, but not all generalize the
information well. As a result, it leads to retraining of the model.
The L1 - regularization method is better suited for cases where most of the model parameters
are not necessary and their values can be neglected [16].
The Lasso regression problem (LASSO, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator)
corresponds to the problem of a priori distribution of Laplace by coefficients.
4. L2 - regularization
L2 - regularization (English Ridge regularization, Tikhonov regularization) does not allow
retraining of the model by prohibiting disproportionately large weights. This leads to the selection
of parameters whose values do not deviate much from zero [17, 5].
General formula:
N D
L2 ( y n yˆ n ) 2 w 2j , (6)
i 1 j 1
where λ is the regularization coefficient.
Model optimization [7,9]:
Q(w, X ) w min ,
2
(7)
w
where Q( w, X ) – is the loss function equivalent to the conditional optimization problem:
Q( w, X ) min
w , (8)
w C
2
where C – is a constant that normally limits the vector of weights.
controls the error function and the regularization penaltu. If the value of λ is large, the
weights will go to zero. If the value of λ is small or equal to zero, then the weights will tend to
minimize the loss function [9-12].
By adding a constant multiplied by the sum of the squares of the weights, we change the
initial loss function and add a penalty for large weights. The square penalty makes the loss
function strongly convex, and therefore it has a unique minimum.
This method is suitable when most of the variables in the model are useful and necessary.
Also, the addition of L2 - regularization does not complicate the optimization process (eg
gradient descent) because this regularizer is smooth and convex [19-20].
The Tikhonov regression problem corresponds to the problem of normal a priori distribution
on coefficients and has an analytical solution [17]:
w ( X T X I ) 1 X T y , (9)
where I – is a diagonal matrix in which the values of are on the diagonal.
5. ElasticNet regularization
ElasticNet regularization is a linear combination of L1 and L2 regularizations. This method
uses the advantages of both methods at once. The fact that the variables do not turn into zero, as in
L1 - regularization, makes it possible to create conditions for a group effect with a high correlation
of variables [15].
General formula:
N D D
LEN ( y n yˆ n ) 2 1 w j 2 w 2j (10)
i 1 j 1 j 1
The method of elastic net is most often used when the model has a lot of parameters, but whether
they are necessary or can be neglected beforehand is unknown.
In particular in the following cases [3-6]:
Cancer prediction
Metric training
Portfolio optimization
6. Analysis and preparation of the selected dataset
The WHO Statistics on Life Expectancy dataset was selected for software implementation [1].
This dataset contains information collected by the World Health Organization and the United Nations
to track factors that affect life expectancy.
Dataset attributes:
Country - the country
Year - year
Status - development status (currently being developed / already developed)
Life expectancy - life expectancy
Adult Mortality - mortality rate for adults of both sexes (probability of death from 15 to 60
years per 1000 population)
Infant death - the number of infant deaths per 1,000 population
Alcohol - per capita alcohol consumption (15+) (in liters of pure alcohol)
percentage expenditure - health care expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product per
capita (%)
Hepatitis B - immunization coverage against hepatitis B (HepB) among one-year-old children
(%)
Measles - measles - the number of reported cases per 1000 population
BMI - the average body weight of the entire population
under-five deaths - the number of deaths under the age of five per 1,000 population
Polio - anti-polio coating (Pol3) among one-year-old children (%)
Total expenditure - national health expenditure as a percentage of total public expenditure (%)
Diphtheria - coverage by immunoprophylaxis against tetanus and pertussis (DTP3) among one-
year-old children (%)
HIV / AIDS - deaths per 1,000 live births HIV / AIDS (0-4 years)
GDP - gross domestic product per capita (in US dollars)
Population - the population of the country
thinness 1-19 years - prevalence of weight loss among children and adolescents aged 10 to 19
years (%)
thinness 5-9 years - the prevalence of weight loss among children aged 5 to 9 years (%)
Income composition of resources - human development index by composition of resource
income (index ranges from 0 to 1)
Schooling - number of years of schooling
The selected dataset was cleaned of data, namely (Figure 1): some columns were renamed
because they contained spaces:
Figure 1: Renamed attributes of the dataset "Life Expectancy"
Figure 1 lists the names of all renamed attributes of the Life Expectancy dataset for each
variable was checked the data match according to its data type:
Figure 2: Data types of attributes of the dataset "Life Expectancy"
Figure 2 shows that all data types correspond to their data.
The percentage of zero values in each column was determined:
Figure 3: Percentage of zero values in each attribute of the dataset "Life Expectancy"
As shown in Figure 3, zero data is present in the columns of the dataset: Life_Expectancy,
Adult_Mortality, Alcohol, HepatitsB, BMI, Polio, Tot_Exp, Diphteria, GDP, Population,
Thiness_1to19_years, Thiness_5to9_years, Income_Comces_Of.
Zero values are processed by interpolation, zero values left after interpolation were discarded:
Figure 4: Percentage of zero values in each attribute of the dataset "Life Expectancy" after
interpolation
Figure 4 shows that all zero values are eliminated.
The number and percentage of atypical values for each variable were calculated and deleted using
the winsorization technique:
Figure 5: The number and percentage of atypical values for each attribute of the dataset "Life
Expectancy"
Figure 5 shows the number and percentage of atypical values in each attribute of the dataset.
Figure 6: Percentage of atypical values for each attribute of the dataset "Life Expectancy" after
winsorization
In Figure 6 is observed that all atypical values are eliminated.
This winsorization technique sets a limit on extreme values in statistics in order to reduce the
impact of atypical data that may be erroneous. Data for some variables before and after winsorization
using box charts are shown in Figures 7-9
Figure 7: Diagram of the range of values of the attribute Life_Expectancy before and after
winsorization
In Figure 7 shows the sample size of the Life_Expectancy attribute before and after winsorization.
After winsorization, there are no outliers on the diagram. It is seen that the range of values of the
variable has also decreased.
Figure 8: Diagram of the range of values of the attribute Adult_Mortality before and after
winsorization
In Figure 8 shows the sample size of the Life_Expectancy attribute before and after winsorization.
Before winsorization, the range of sampling values ranged from 0 to 700, after winsorization - from 0
to 500. This was due to the elimination of outliers.
Figure 9: Diagram of the range of values of the attribute original_Tot_Exp before and after
winsorization
In Figure 9 shows the sample size of the Life_Expectancy attribute before and after winsorization.
Before winsorization, the sample size is in the range from 0 to 14, after - from 0 to 12. Therefore,
outliers are eliminated.
As can be seen from the diagrams, atypical data (outliers) were successfully eliminated using the
winsorization method. Variables were added to the dataset after winsorization.
Variables winsorized_Life_Expectancy, winsorized_Tot_Exp, winsorized_Schooling are
distributed according to the normal distribution (Figures 10-12)
Figure 10: Distribution of the variable winsorized_original_Tot_Exp
Figure 10 shows the distribution of the variable winsorized_Tot_Exp. The diagram shows that this
variable is distributed according to the normal distribution.
Figure 11: Distribution of the variable winsorized_ Life_Expectancy
Figure 11 shows the distribution of the variable winsorized_Life_Expectancy. The chart shows
that this variable is distributed according to the normal distribution.
Figure 12: Distribution of the variable winsorized_Schooling
Figure 12 shows the distribution of the variable winsorized_ Schooling. It is observed that this
variable obeys the normal distribution.
Analysis of the dependences between the target variable winsorized_Life_Expectancy and other
dataset variables shows that there is a direct linear dependence between winsorized_Life_Expectancy
and Income_Comp_Of_Resources and Schooling (Figures 13, 14). There is also an inverse linear
dependence between winsorized_Life_Expect.
Figure 13: The dependence between the variables LifeExpectancy and Income_Comp_Of_Resources
This chart is traced the linear dependence between the target variable winsorized_Life_Expectancy
and Income_Comp_Of_Resources.
Figure 14: The dependence between the variables LifeExpectancy and Schooling
In this diagram, there is a linear dependence between the target variable
winsorized_Life_Expectancy and Schooling.
Figure 15: The dependence between the variables LifeExpectancy and AdultMortality
This diagram shows the inverse linear dependence between the target variable
winsorized_Life_Expectancy and Schooling
Correlation map of dataset features:
Figure 16: Correlation map of the characteristics of the Life Expectancy datase
From this thermal diagram it is possible to reveal dependences between the following features:
1. There is a dependence between winsorized_Income_Comp_Of_Resources and
winsorized_Schooling.
2. There is a dependence between winsorized_thinness_1to19_years and
winsorized_thinness_5to9_years
3. There is a dependence between winsorized_Polio and winsorized_Diphtheria
4. There is a dependence between winsorized_Percentage_Exp and winsorized_GDP.
5. There is a dependence between winsorized_Income_Comp_Of_Resources and
winsorized_Life_Expectancy.
6. There is a dependence between winsorized_Life_Expectancy and winsorized_Schooling.
7. There is a dependence between winsorized_Infant_Deaths and
winsorized_Under_Five_Deaths.
8. There is an inverse dependence between winsorized_HIV and winsorized_Life_Expectancy.
9. There is an inverse dependence between winsorized_Adult_Mortality and
winsorized_Life_Expectancy.
The sample has features that correlate with the target variable, which means that the problem of
life expectancy (Life Expectancy) can be solved by linear methods.
7. Experiments
Linear regression model
Initially, a linear regression model was created without applying any of the regularizations. This
model solves the problem of predicting life expectancy (Life Expectancy) based on 16 other features
of the dataset. The scikit-learn library was used for software implementation.
All data were mixed and divided into train and test:
train, test = train_test_split(le_shuffled, test_size=0.3)
train_data = scale(train.loc[:, train.columns != "winsorized_Life_Expectancy"])
test_data = scale(test.loc[:, test.columns != "winsorized_Life_Expectancy"])
train_labels = train["winsorized_Life_Expectancy"]
test_labels = test["winsorized_Life_Expectancy"]
Creating and learning a linear model:
model = linear_model.LinearRegression().fit(train_data, train_labels)
The obtained weights at the features after learning the model of linear regression (Figure 17):
Figure 17: Weights of features of the model of linear regression after training
Absolute value of weights at linearly dependent features are bigger, than at other features.
Analytical formula below explain this, it is used to calculate the weights of a linear model in the least
squares method:
w ( X T X ) 1 X T y (11)
If X has collinear (linearly dependent) columns, the matrix XT becomes degenerate, and the
formula ceases to be correct. The more dependent the features, the smaller the determinant of this
matrix and the worse the Xw≈y approximation (the problem of multicollinearity)
Quality metrics of the obtained linear model (Figure 18):
Figure 18: Quality metrics of the linear regression model (root mean square error, mean absolute
error, coefficient of determination)
The mean absolute error 2.66, the root mean square error 12.9. The coefficient of determination
is 0.86, and therefore is in the range of 0 R 1 , that indicates that the model works well and
2
explains 86% of the variance in the entire target vector, that is a good characteristic.
The solution of the problem of multicollinearity and overfitting is regularization of the linear
model. L1 or L2, or L1 and L2 weight norm multiplied by the regularization coefficient α are added to
the optimized functional. In the first case, the method is called Lasso, in the second – Ridge, and the
third – Elastic Net.
8. Results
1) Lasso regularization
Weights of features of linear regression without regularization (Figure 19):
Figure 19: Weights of features of the model of linear regression after training
Weights of features of Lasso regression (application of L1-regularization) (Figure 20):
Figure 20: Weights of features of the linear regression model using L1-regularization after training
In comparison with the weights of the usual linear regression, it is observed that after the use of
Lasso regularization the selection of features took place: the weights at non-informative features
turned into zero. Weights at other features approached zero.
Visualization of weight dynamics with increasing regularization parameter α (Figure 21):
Figure 21: Chart with the dynamics of weights relative to the parameter of regularization α when
using Lasso-regression
It is observed that as the parameter α of the L1-regularizer increases, the weights of the features
rapidly go to zero, and as the value of α weights increases, more and more features turn to zero and
the model becomes simpler.
2) Ridgeregularization
Weights of features of linear regression without regularization:
Figure 22: Weights of features of the model of linear regression after training
Weights of features of ridge regression (application of L2-regularization) (Figure 23):
Figure 23: Weights of features of the linear regression model using L2-regularization after training
In comparison with the weights of the usual linear regression, it is observed that after the use of
Ridge regularization, the larger weights of the features decreased (approached zero), but did not turn
into zero. So the selection of signs did not take place, but we set a penalty for disproportionately large
weights and brought them closer to zero.
Figure 24: Chart of the dynamics of weights relative to the parameter of regularization α when using
Ridge-regression
Figure 24 Legend for the chart of the dynamics of weights relative to the parameter of
regularization α when using Ridge regression
It is observed that with increasing L2-regularization parameter, the weights gradually go to zero,
but do not turn to zero. At α = 0 the weights of the features are directed to minimize the error
function.
3) Elastic Net regularization
Weights of signs of linear regression without regularization (Figure 25):
Figure 25: Weights of features of the model of linear regression after training
Weight of features of elastic net regression (application of L1-L2-regularization) (Figure 26):
Figure 26: Weights of features of the linear regression model using ElasticNet-regularization after
training
In comparison with the weights of simple linear regression, it is observed that after the use of
ElasticNet regularization, some weightsofnon-informative features turned to zero, and other
disproportionately large weights approached zero. This was achieved through the use of two penalties
L1 and L2 regularization.
Figure 27: Chart of the dynamics of weights relative to the parameter of regularization α when using
ElasticNet-regression
Figure 27 Legend for the chart of the dynamics of weights relative to the parameter of
regularization α when using ElasticNet-regression.
It is observed that with increasing ElasticNet-regularization parameter, the weights at the features
go to zero, but not as fast as it happens in L1-regularization and not as slowly as observed when using
L2-regularization.
9. Conclusion
L1-, L2-, ElasticNet-regularizations of classification and regression were investigated in the course
of work.
First of all, the WHO Statistics on Life Expectancy dataset was analyzed, prepared and cleaned. It
was checkedif the data types match the attributes of dataset. Zero values were eliminated by
interpolation, and atypical values of each attribute of the dataset were eliminated by the method of
winsorization. The distribution and scope of the values of each variable are investigated and
demonstrated using scale diagrams and bar charts, respectively. Linear dependences between the
target variable and the rest of the dataset variables are determined. A correlation map of attributes was
constructed and on the basis of it was determined that the set task of life expectancy prediction can be
realized by linear methods.
A linear regression model was created using the scikit-learn library. After her training, the weights
of the model features were obtained and it was observed that the weights at strongly correlated
features were greater than the rest. Thus, the problem of multicollinearity was identified. The quality
metrics of the linear regression model were calculated, namely: root mean square error, mean absolute
error and coefficient of determination. The root mean square error indicated that the model was wrong
in 12.9% of cases, the mean absolute error – in 2.7% of cases. The coefficient of determination is ≈
0.86, which indicates that the trained model describes 86% of the variance and is reasonable because
the coefficient of determination is in the range from zero to one.
To eliminate the problem of multicollinearity, 3 regularization methods were applied and
compared.
The Lasso regression model was created and after its training the weights of the features were
obtained. It was observed that this type of regularization carried out the selection of features and
turned the weights at non-informative features to zero. The dynamics of Lasso regression weights
with increasing α regularization parameter was monitored. It was found that with increasing α, the
weights rapidly approach zero, and with sufficiently large α all weights turn into zero. As α increases,
the model becomes simpler.
During the Ridge regression, it was observed that the large weights approached zero, but none of
them turned into zero. The dynamics of Ridge regression weights was observed and it was found that
even at a sufficiently large α the weights do not turn into zero, but slowly asymptotically approach
zero.
After implementing ElasticNet regression, some of the weights turned to zero and some
approached zero. This is due to the application of penalties of both L1 and L2 regularizations in this
method. The change in weights with increasing α parameter was observed. It was observed that with
increasing α the weight of the features tends to zero, but not as rapidly as it occurs when using L1-
regularization. But in contrast to L2-regularization, at a sufficiently large α all weights are converted
to zero.
Therefore, L1-regularization is better used in cases where it is known that some of the attributes
are unimportant, because when using this regularization the selection of features will be conducted
that will turn the weight of non-informative features to zero. L2-regularization is better to use when it
is known that all variables of the dataset are important in predicting the target variable, because when
using this regularization disproportionately large weights will approach zero, but the selection of
features will not occur. ElasticNet regularization is universal. It is suitable for the two cases described
above, and especially for cases where it is not known which variables are important and which are
not, or when the dataset has a very large number of variables.
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