=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2923/paper33
|storemode=property
|title=Management Risks of Dependence on Key Employees: Identification of Personnel
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2923/paper33.pdf
|volume=Vol-2923
|authors=Yurii Khlaponin,Olha Izmailovа,Nameer Hashim Qasim,Hanna Krasovska,Kateryna Krasovska
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/cpits/KhlaponinIQKK21
}}
==Management Risks of Dependence on Key Employees: Identification of Personnel==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2923/paper33.pdf
Management Risks of Dependence on Key Employees:
Identification of Personnel
Yurii Khlaponina, Olha Izmailovaа, Nameer Hashim Qasimb, Hanna Krasovskac,
and Kateryna Krasovskac
a
Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, 31 Povitroflotskiy ave., Kyiv, 03680. Ukraine
b
AL Qalam University College Kirkuk, Kirkuk, 36004, Iraq
c
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 60 Volodymyrska str., Kyiv, 01033, Ukraine
Abstract
The approach to the realization of one of the most essential stages of information technology
risk management in the personnel security system of the company was studied. Information
technology aims to ensure the sustainability and success of the company by anticipating,
exploiting the benefits, and minimizing vulnerabilities to potential threats to work with such
categories of personnel as key employees. The stage that is the subject of the study is related
to the identification of personnel. It is carried out on the basis of the analysis of conformity of
possibilities of the respondent to requirements to various groups of competencies defined by
the profile of key employees formed in the company. In this study, the stage of identification
of key employees is considered as a human-machine toolkit, built on a system-linked base of
peer review models using modern capabilities of decision support systems in a weak process
structuring and conceptual uncertainty. Its information result - an indicator of identification
and a database of diverse assessments of employee competence - is considered as one of the
basic in assessing potential threats to company assets, their vulnerabilities, expected costs,
finding ways to minimize them in the next stages of information technology risk management
of key employees.
Keywords 1
Key employee, profile and identification of personnel, risk of dependence, index of
authentication, group and criteria of competencies, weight of criteria.
1. Introduction
The main task of skilled safety to the company is providing maximal stability of work, prevention,
and removal of threats and risks that is related to the human factor—work of personnel.
According to resource conception of business management, which formed the theoretical basis of a
ground of behavior of company on modern markets, set one of major having special-purpose options
is possession and management application of unique resources of a different type, that needed for the
realization of its strategies. It gives the company special value, uniqueness, and competitiveness. To
their number the taken and human resources. The professionalism of the worker, his knowledge,
skills, structural flexibility, thinking level determine the key competencies of an organization,
stipulate its uniqueness and value. In these terms to the important questions of improvement of the
system of safety of the company, there is providing of firmness of its work with foresight and use of
possible advantages and potential problems with such categories of personnel as key employees.
Subjects of improvement of skilled safety in sense of managing risks as dependence on key
employees especially actual in spheres in those business successes, first of all, depend on an
intellectual human capital. In these terms the role of key employees rises as a base constituent of the
Cybersecurity Providing in Information and Telecommunication Systems, January 28, 2021, Kyiv, Ukraine
EMAIL: y.khlaponin@gmail.com (A.1); olga.v.izmailova@gmail.com (A.2); nameer.qasim@icloud.com (B.3); annavkrasovska@
gmail.com (C.4); katerina.krasovska@gmail.com (C.5)
ORCID: 0000-0002-9287-0817 (A.1); 0000-0002-2905-1827 (A.2); 0000-0002-7283-0594 (B.3); 0000-0003-1986-6130 (C.4); 0000-0002-
3468-8064 (C.5)
©️ 2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
295
success of the company, and, the second party, the level of risks that arise up the independence of
success of the company on key employees rises. The measure of expenditures for compensating risks
is varied and depends on different factors. The first factor is the loss of key employees as an important
human asset of the company. For example, is unforeseen liberation of key employees. It can lead to
substantial expenditures that connected with the inevitability of postponement of possibilities of
implementation of strategic plans of the company, the loss of connections in the state authorities,
logistic companies, in an informative environment, with the decline of the skilled potential of the
company, to require additional charges on the preparation of skilled replacement. The second factor is
related to the actions of the key employee as the real or potential source of realization of threats -
work on a competitor during work in the company or after liberation, creation of the personal
company—a competitor with bringing in and use of resources of company—technologies, workers,
information and others like that.
Therefore, for today one of the actual tasks of skilled security of company service, there is the
determination of problems and analysis of risks that is related to dependence on key employees.
2. Analysis of Literary Data, Raising of Problem, Aim, and Research Tasks
At this time among theoretical and practically-oriented publications, there is a far of works that
examine the problems of management key employees in sense of differentiation of personnel
depending on their payments in development of business and companies on the whole [1-5], there are
materials of empiric researches that is executed within the framework of international research
projects and work round table [6, 7]. In works certain interpretation of term “key employee,”
investigational approaches to forming of the profile of key employee that determines typical quality
properties of personnel, the different variants of the structure of quality properties (criteria of
competence) of the profile, accordance of employee are argued to his requirements and the offered
methodologies of identification of this accordance. They are based on the methods of the
questionnaire, expert discussion without formalization or partial formalization of these procedures.
The worked-out algorithmic charts of estimation of payment of key employee are in the development
of company taking into account weight of criteria of competence. The number of publications that
examine the problem of increase of skilled strength security due to management risks grew lately, that
the dependences related to the factor are on key employees [7–11]. In the problem of dependence is
substantially justified and relevance of further works of it solving is defined, the partly formalized
vehicle of determination of the expected threats and approach to risks and potential charges is offered.
The conducted researches allowed the authors to draw conclusions basing necessity on managing
risks that connected with dependence on key employees, on the generated scientific ideas,
accumulated experience, and practical recommendations of many both home and foreign scientists
and researchers in the industry of analysis of risks and counteraction to their threats [12–14]. At this
time the great number of various methods and models that are sent to the determination of
constituents of the mathematical vehicle of estimation of risks in the conditions of incomplete
definiteness of data on the basis of methods of expert evaluation is used [8, 9, 15]. They foresee the
evaluation of the level of losses and probability of realization of risk on a quality scale, as a rule,
without her quantitative interpretation. It was drawn the conclusion that by the substantial lever of
increase of efficiency of management risks, that the dependences related to the factors are on key
employees, in the real terms of weak structurization of processes of management and conceptual
vagueness, there will be passing to the application of information technology that is based on
possibilities and advantages of the modern systems of support of making the decision (SSMD). The
base of models of SSMD must include the aggregate of statistical methods and methods of expert
evaluation [16, 17] and to be sent to the determination of the risk of dependence of company from key
employees.
Will describe the general going near the construction of information technology of managing the
risks of dependence on key employees. In Fig. 1 its stages are certain. The informative ground of
work of this technology (1) and summarizing mathematical model of risk 𝐾𝑅𝑖 (2) assessment it is
suggested to describe next correlations:
𝐾𝑅𝑖 = { ((𝑉𝐼 ; ̅̅̅̅
𝑅𝑖𝑗 ; ̅̅̅̅ ; 𝑃𝑖𝑗 )|𝑖 ∈ 𝐼, 𝑗 = ̅̅̅̅̅
𝐵𝑖𝑗; ̅̅̅̅̅ 1, 𝑛)}, (1)
296
𝐾𝑅𝑖 = 𝑉𝐼 × ∑𝑛𝑗=1 𝑅𝑖𝑗 × 𝐵𝑖𝑗 × 𝑃𝑖𝑗 , (2)
Where 𝑉𝐼 𝑉𝐼 is an index of identification of key specialists that is determined in a range [0. 5 ÷ 1];
𝑅𝑖𝑗 is the probability of realization of the offensive of jth threat of dependence is on key employees
that are determined in a range [0 ÷ 1]; ∑𝑛𝑗=1 𝑅𝑖𝑗 = 1;
𝐵𝑖𝑗 is the vulnerability of company is during realization of the offensive of jth threat of dependence
on key employees that is determined in a range [0 ÷ 1];
Pij is multivariable charges that are expected during realization of jth threat of dependence on key
employees, determined in the set scale of measuring.
Figure 1: Information technology of managing the risks of dependence is on key employees
Becomes separated from authors for considered one of the substantial stages of information
technology, that related to identification of key employee, and the task of presentation of it results is
put as a corresponding quantitative index of authentication VI. To represent the setting measure of
accordance of ith respondent to the requirements of the profile of key specialist both complex and
from the point of view of his separate properties. They got the value of this index and database of
identification formed in the system become the informative basis of realization of the further stages of
management to the risks of dependence on key employees.
The aim of the research of authors is a search and analysis of ways of the decision of compromise
task that requires, from one side, to provide the evaluation system taking into account variety of
requirements to the competence of specialist, distribution of measure of formalization of processes
and improving on the other hand, taking into account the discrepancy between the real conditions of
the unstructured problem of decision-making and conceptual uncertainty. An attempt to assist the
partial decision of this problem will be realized in this research.
The article aims to analyze the approach of realization of the stage of identification of key
employees on the basis of system linked bases of models of expert evaluation with the use of modern
possibilities of the systems of support of making the decision. For gaining end such tasks were put: to
297
define the base of models of identification of key employee; to conduct research of base models and
methods of their realization.
3. Base of Models of Identification of Key Employee
3.1. Principles of Construction of the Base of Models
Forming of the base of models is conducted on the basis of analysis of steps of realization of the
stage of identification and research of possibilities of existent methods of solving tasks of such class.
At forming of the base of models, following the having a special purpose setting of achievement of
desirable levels of authenticity and validity of results of authentication, to realize the gradual removal
of problems of conceptual vagueness due to basing on next principles:
Forming of human-machine technology of expert evaluation is on the basis of the set base of
models of SSMD.
Realization of the idea of system coordination of vehicle of formalization, mathematical providing,
and rules of receipt of quality information is from a person, that makes the decision (PMD), and
experts. As PMD and expert’s certain guidance companies are examined representatives of skilled
security and management a personnel service.
Use of methods of qualitative analysis with its interpretation in the quantitative measuring.
Account of efficiency of “human factor”—making the decision must be based on professionalism,
being informed, intuition, the intellect of PMD and experts, that is why reasonable requirements must
be certain in the complement of the expert group.
Application of the method of individual questioning is on the basis of the absence of exchange
information between experts. Every expert must have an individual password of access to the server
for implementation of expert evaluation and receipt of initial information about the object of
evaluation, but can`t exchange information with other experts. Dependence of evaluation results is
eliminated these on prevailing of opinions of the most active and authoritative specialists and
“anonymity” of opinions of experts is provided.
Providing is at a concordance and grouping of end-point of the real compromise taking into
account ideas and level of competence of every expert.
Application of vehicle of the unclear questioning is with a grant to the possibility to conduct the
expert questioning with an orientation on the interpretation of interval of vagueness as a structure of
his scale.
To take into the accountability of man to recognize and form the estimations within the framework
of the recommended limitations of the number of Miller (7 ± 2) at the construction of structures of
evaluation scales.
An acceptance of final decision is the prerogative of man—to the collective of specialists,
accountable for the policy of the company that is the initiators of development and interested in the
achievement of a quality result.
To the base of models, it is suggested to include:
Model 1. Profile of key employees.
Model 2. Estimation of the weight of criteria of competence of different levels of the hierarchy of
profile of key employees.
Model 3. Establishment of values of criteria of competence of key employees.
Model 4. Control of coordination of opinions of experts.
Model 5. Generalization of evaluation results.
Model 6. Determination of index of identification of key employees.
The base of models is divided into two component groups that are certain as two components of
the spiral approach of creation of the system:
a group of models, that will realize the processes of work of separate experts (models 1–3, model
5), is the first iteration of the development of the system;
a group of models, that will realize the processes of generalization of opinions of different experts
(model 3, model 4), is the second iteration of development.
Within the framework of the article the put task of research of models of the first group.
298
3.2. Model of the Profile of Key Employee
The model of the profile of key specialist prepares by PMD—the corresponding structures of
personnel management and the system of company safety. At forming the profile of PMD we will
consider two hypostases of dependence on key employees. From one side, an employee is examined
as a valuable asset of the company (human resource) of the present time and taking into account the
terms of long-term development of the company, from another party, as a possible source of the
potential threat that determines the risk of dependence. Clear that profile of key employee this empiric
set concept, he must be built depending on the reality of terms of work of the corresponding company,
and to guarantee his model possibility of varying of the profile structure. Stopped up the hierarchical
model of the profile of key employees, rich in content authenticity of that is reasonable in-process [5].
She is built on the basis of results of questioning of experts that work in intellectually capacious
companies and have an experience both for authentications of key employees and application of these
results at a management risks by the unformalized or partly formalized way. At the first level of
hierarchy certain groups of competencies of key employees, on the second are criteria of competence
for every group (Table 1, columns 1,2).
Table 1.
Profile of key employee
Groups and criteria of competencies of key employees Weight of groups of
Code Name competencies and their
criteria
𝛽𝑔 𝛽𝑔𝑚 𝛽𝑔𝑚 𝑅
1. Group of competence “Ability to learning” 0.2 — —
1.1 The permanent personal interest is in the acquisition of 0.1152 0.0230
new knowledge
1.2 Analysis of aim and maintenance of studies 0.1531 0.0307
1.3 Ability to apply new knowledge in practice 0.2234 0.0447
1.4 Ability to use stranger experience for own development 0.1453 0.0290
1.5 Ability independently to determine why it is necessary to 0.2630 0.0526
learn for the best implementation of work
1.6 Permanent perfection of abilities and skills 0.1000 0.0200
All on a group 1 0.2 1.0 0.2
2 Group of competence “Professionalism” 0.4 — —
2.1 Owns unique knowledge 0.1751 0.0700
2.2 Really manages the business, company 0.1462 0.0584
2.3 Locks on itself the acceptance of important administrative 0.1223 0.0489
decisions
2.4 Owns unique skills, technologies 0.0790 0.0317
2.5 Able quickly to get along at the put tasks. 0.0790 0.0317
2.6 Ability to decide difficult tasks. 0.0790 0.0317
2.7 Ability to make a decision in the situation of vagueness 0.3194 0.1276
All on a group 2 0.4 1.0 0.4
3 Group of competence “Integration” 0.2 — —
3.1 Contacts with key clients 0.2501 0.0500
3.2 Turned out a copula in state structures 0.2501 0.0500
3.3 It is an informal leader 0.1002 0.0200
3.4 Ability to create and support confidence relations 0.0923 0.0181
3.5 Ability to forecast the most credible reactions of man 0.1133 0.0221
3.6 Ability for the decision of any task, quickly to find and 0.1240 0.0248
299
attract necessary people
3.7 Ability it easily to set new business contacts 0.0350 0.0070
3.8 Ability to coordinate interests of different people 0.0350 0.0070
All on a group 3 0.2 1.0 0.2
4 Group of competence “Reflection” 0.1 — —
4.1 Ability critically to analyze an eigenstate and behavior 0.1541 0.0154
Ability to critically analyze one’s condition and behavior
4.2 Ability to acknowledge the errors 0.1242 0.0124
4.3 Ability to use previous experience for the decision of new 0.3024 0.0303
tasks
4.4 Ability to ask for feedback from colleagues and guidance in 0.1243 0.0124
relation to own actions
4.5 Ability to find out essence and reasons of the phenomena 0.1541 0.0154
and processes
4.6 Possessing the realized aims 0.1409 0.0141
All on a group 4 1.0 0.1
5 Group of competence “Creation of new knowledge” 0.1 — —
5.1 Ability to work with the unstructured data 0.2000 0.0200
5.2 Ability for the decision of tasks to apply interdisciplinary 0.3002 0.0300
knowledge
5.3 Ability to systematize information 0.1023 0.0103
5.4 Ability to analyze the large arrays of data 0.0921 0.0092
5.5 Ability to offer a non-standard solution of tasks 0.1140 0.0114
5.6 Ability to perceive a new, be not afraid of changes 0.1223 0.0122
5.7 Ability to actualize the knowledge 0.0691 0.0069
All on a group 5 0.1 1.0 0.1
All 1.0 5.0 1.0
3.3. Estimation Model of the Weight of Criteria of Competence of Different
Levels of Hierarchy
Application of this model gives the formalized mathematical vehicle of transformation of quality
estimations of the expert of comparative meaningfulness of criteria in the quantitative expression of
their weight. An estimation is formed for two levels of the hierarchy of profile model: at the level of
groups of competence {(β ̅̅̅̅
g )|g = 1, . . G}, of criteria of competence of every group
{(βgm )|g ∈ G; m = ̅̅̅̅̅
1, M} and for determining the weight of the generalized influence of every
criterion of competence on the large-sized index of identification of key specialist
{(βgm R )|g ∈ G; m = ̅̅̅̅̅
1, M} (see Table 1, columns 3–5).
The construction of the model is based on the application of possibilities of the method of analysis
of hierarchies (MAH) [18-21]. According to this method, an expert gradually carries out the
comparative estimation of meaningfulness of groups of competencies and criteria of every group
based on the recommended scale of estimation of advantages. An estimation that is conducted by an
expert in verbal and grows into a model in the quantitative description. The expediency of application
of МАІ a base tool of construction of the model was grounded by the next possibilities of the method,
that substantially influence on authenticity of evaluation results.
The flexible hierarchical structure of presentation of objects of evaluation that gives the possibility
to the user, in accordance with the situational terms of work of the company, to make alteration both
in the complement of groups of competence, criteria of their evaluation and levels of decomposition
of criteria.
300
Expansion of evaluation interval. If most methods of expert comparative evaluation (for example,
pair comparisons and ranging) give the possibility to the expert to set only the fact of advantage of
one object above other, МАІ allows taking into account the different levels of advantages.
Assumes violation of condition of complete co-ordination of estimations of expert, that in the
conditions of implementation of the set limitations, distributes an evaluation scale and specifies the
results of estimations.
On the set profile in our example as a result of the questioning of experts, it must be six matrices of
pair comparisons are built. One for comparison of the weight of groups of competenсe, five—for
comparison of weight criteria of every group of competences. A typical view of these matrices is
driven to Table 2.
Table 2.
Matrix of pair comparisons
Group of criteria Group of criteria of competence
of competence S1 … Sq … Sn
S1 a11 … a1q … a1n
… … … … … …
Sm am1 … amq … amn
… … … … … …
Sn An1 … Anq … Ann
The results of the verbal questioning of experts about the advantages of evaluation objects grow
into a numerical presentation on the basis of the classic scale of МАH. She has 5 base levels
(recommended a minimum of the number of Miller) and 9 levels at the application of terms of
intermediate evaluation (recommended a maximum of number of Miller): 1 does not advantage
(criteria are identically important); 3 is a weak advantage (the first criteria has an insignificant
advantage as compared to the second); 5 is a substantial advantage (the first criteria is substantially
major than second); 7 is a very strong advantage (the first criteria is considerably major than second);
9 is an absolute advantage (the first criteria are absolutely major than second; 2.4.6.8 are intermediate
estimations of levels of advantage.
If the criteria of m prevail above q, then the cage of column m, filled by a reverse to his number
(by a shot). If the criteria of m do not prevail above q, then there is a reverse. If it is considered that
criteria of m and q are identically important, then the unit belongs in both positions. This matrix must
own the property of reverse symmetry: amq=1/aqm.
Principles of construction of matrix and rule of her treatment are identical for every matrix. Will
illustrate the stated on the basis of construction and processing of data of comparative estimation the
expert of meaningfulness of criteria of a group of competence “Professionalism” (Table 3).
Table 3.
Matrix of comparative estimation by the expert of the weight of criteria of the group of competence
“Professionalism”
Weight of
Criteria of group “Professionalism” 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 criteria
𝛽𝑔𝑚
2.1. Owns unique knowledge 1 2 2 2 2 2 1/3 0.1751
2.2. Really manages business, company 1/2 1 2 2 2 2 1/3 0.1462
2.3. Locks on itself the acceptance of 1/2 1/2 1 2 2 2 1/3 0.1223
important administrative decisions
2.4. Owns unique skills, technologies 1/2 1/2 1/2 1 1 1 1/3 0.0790
2.5. Able quickly to get along at the put 1/2 1/2 1/2 1 1 1 1/3 0.0790
301
tasks
2.6. Able to decide difficult tasks 1/2 1/2 1/2 1 1 1 1/3 0.0790
2.7. Able to make decision in the
3 3 3 3 3 3 1
situation of vagueness 0.3194
All 6,5 8 9,5 12 12 12 3 1.0
The further processing of data of matrix consists in the estimation of the weight of criteria on the
basis of determination of values of the personal vector of the matrix:
(3)
𝑎𝑔𝑚 = 𝑛√∏𝑛𝑞=1 𝑎𝑚𝑞 .
Size is determined on the basis of normalization of values of the personal vector and equals:
𝑎
𝛽𝑔𝑚 = ∑𝑛 𝑔𝑚 . (4)
𝑚=1 𝑎𝑔𝑚
An analogical method is determining the weight of every group of criteria of competence:
𝑛 (5)
𝑛
𝑎𝑔 = √∏ 𝑎𝑔 ;
𝑞=1 𝑞
𝑎𝑔
𝛽𝑔 = ∑𝐺 . (6)
𝑔=1 𝑎𝑔
The weight of the generalized influence of every criterion of competence on the index of
identification of employees is determined as follows:
𝛽𝑔𝑚 𝑅 = 𝛽𝑔 × 𝛽𝑔𝑚 . (7)
At a construction to the model, the next situational terms of realization are taken into account.
Canvassing of experts can be realized in the asynchronous mode (in comfortable for an expert
time) and the conditions of the asynchronous questioning as means of the organization of the group
meeting with the parallel analysis of PMD of results questioning, to their discussions and realization
of iterations of improvement.
Canvassing can be organized both for the exposure of all spectrum of groups and criteria of
competence and gradually with the limitation for to the groups of competencies or for to the levels of
hierarchy.
For pair comparisons to the expert possibility of the use of two modes of evaluation is given:
1. To apply the chain of comparative evaluation of criteria of the first diagonal of the matrix.
This approach allows to bring down a volume to estimate an evaluation and to annul the risk of errors
in the coordination of estimations of the expert. Application of corresponding algorithm taking into
account transitive dependence of 𝑎𝑚𝑞 ∙ 𝑎𝑠𝑘 = 𝑎𝑚𝑘 evaluations give the possibility of filling of all
matrix, the sign of complete co-ordination of matrix is here kept and guaranteed logic of results:
𝛽 (8)
𝑎𝑚𝑞 = 𝑚⁄𝛽 .
𝑞
2. To apply the comparative pair-wise evaluation of all criteria of the reverse-symmetric matrix.
From one side, this approach has a risk to bring к over to the impermissible change of co-ordination
of estimations of expert but, on the other hand, and to render the large preference of additional
compensation of terms of conceptual vagueness - an expert in the change of the estimations can take
into account the additional nuances of comparative estimation and conduct them quality clarification.
So in an example that is given in Table 3, the questioning of expert passed in the second mode. An
expert at questioning identically estimated insignificant advantage of criteria 2.2 (really manages
business, company) above criteria 2.3 (locks on itself the acceptance of important administrative
decisions) and estimated it a2.22.3 = 2. Advantage of criteria 2.1 (owns unique knowledge) above
criteria 2.4 (owns unique skills, technologies) he also estimated a2.1 2.4 = 2. Treatment of results of
estimation finds a violation of the integrity of full co-ordination of matrix:
𝛽 0.1462
𝑎2.22.3 ≠ 2.2⁄𝛽 = 0.1223 = 1,19 and
2.3
𝛽 0.1751
𝑎2.1 2.4 ≠ 2.1⁄𝛽 = = 2,216, that is 𝑎2.22.3 ≠ 𝑎2.1 2.4
2.4 0.079
302
But this “negative” result can work on the improvement of results, namely - clarification of
advantages of expert. In the first comparison, the estimation of the advantage of the first criteria is
corrected and certainly less than 2, in the second—anymore. In a model, a mathematical vehicle is
used for diagnostics of cause and effects of the inconsistency of estimations of experts and control of
admission of results [21]. Verification confirmed the possible level of “anomaly” of estimations of
experts in our example. In the opposite case evaluation results are spoiled, reasons are determined and
the new iteration of evaluation is conducted.
3.4. Model of the Establishment of Values of Criteria of Competence of Key
Employees
A model is built with an aim to give to the expert of the possibility of application of the formalized
mathematical vehicle of identification of employee on the basis of determination of index 𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 , that
represents the measure of accordance of ith respondent to the requirements of the profile of specialist
on mth criteria of gth group of competences. At an evaluation, an expert follows existing in the
company of information about respondent, that answers the criteria of competence that is examined,
by the personal impressions from the real his job performances, by the results of intuitional analysis
his potential possibilities. The last is determined on the basis of unformalized interview, interviewing,
intuitional generalization of the impressions—that is, appears the unstructured problem of making the
decision of estimation of the employee in the conditions of conceptual vagueness. In these terms the
mathematical vehicle of model it is suggested to build on the basis of rules of unclear evaluation with
the establishment of the interval of vagueness [22], which is examined as a substantial lever of
increase of clearness and authenticity of estimations, and the following provides for:
An expert gets the possibility to define a result, not on the basis of synonymous estimation of
accordance of the respondent of competence (for example, answers the requirements of criteria “owns
unique knowledge”—or does not answer), but to take into account at an evaluation, at what level (as
far as) he answers these requirements, following existent divergences of the personal impressions. It is
suggested to apply five levels (minimum value of the number of Miller) of estimation of accordance
of the respondent to the certain criteria of competence on the basis of such correlations:
𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 = {𝑣 ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅|𝑖 ∈ 𝐼; 𝑚 ∈ 𝑀; 𝑔 ∈ 𝐺; 𝑤 = ⃐1, 𝑊 }. (9)
𝑖𝑔𝑚
𝑤
Where 𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 determines the result of the evaluation of a measure of accordance of ith respondent
𝑤
an expert to the requirements of the profile of specialist on mth criteria of gth group of competenсes on
w-level of accordances. The results of the evaluation of expert it is suggested to examine as discrete
distribution of the casual size of evaluation.
The scale of classification levels of accordance is given in Table 4 (columns 1–4).
Table 4.
Examples of estimation by the expert of index 𝒗𝒊𝟐 , that represents the measure of accordance of ith
𝟐
respondent to the requirements of the profile of specialist on a criteria 1 “Owns unique knowledge”
of the group of competenсes of 2 “Proffesionalism”
A scale is the classification of values of evaluation Estimations of expert The expected is given
Level of Quality scale Range of values Probability Degree of Probability Base index
accordance of levels of of the numeral of truth of confidence of of
accordance scale of levels of estimation in an compensati accordance
accordance 𝜗𝑖𝑔𝑚 estimation on of level 𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚
min max 𝑤 of 𝑤
Vm Vm 𝑌𝑖𝑔 .
𝑚𝑤 evaluation
𝛾𝑖𝑔𝑚
𝑤
1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9
W1 Very high 0.9 1 0.9 1 0.392 1
303
W2 High 0.8 0.9 1 0.9 0.434 0.81
W3 Middle 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.95 0.174 0.75
W4 Subzero 0.6 0.7 0 1 0 0.7
W5 Very subzero 0.5 0.6 0 1 0 0.6
An expert gets the possibility of further specification the estimation (the estimation) within the
framework of the set range of evaluation on the basis of the next correlation:
𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 = {(𝑣𝑔𝑚𝑎𝑥 ; 𝑌𝑖𝑔 ) |𝑖 ∈ 𝐼; 𝑚 ∈ 𝑀; 𝑔 ∈ 𝐺; 𝑤 = ⃐1, 𝑊 }. (10)
𝑤 𝑚𝑤 𝑚𝑤
Where Yig is a degree of confidence of expert in his estimation, 0.9≤ Yig ≤ 1 (see Table 4,
mw mw
column 7):
1 means the complete confidence of an expert, that accordance of ith respondent to the
requirements to mth criteria of gth group of competence at the level of w answers to the maximal value
in the range of evaluation, 0.9 is on a verge the set level and answers a minimum value. A base for
further calculations value𝑣𝑖𝑚𝑔𝑤 is determined within the framework of certain intervals (Table 4,
column 9):
𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 = 𝑣𝑔𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑚𝑤
× 𝑌𝑖𝑔𝑚 . (11)
𝑤 𝑤
Taking into account, that the results of estimation of the expert of size 𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 are examined as
𝑤
discrete distribution of casual size further treatment of evaluation results it is suggested to conduct on
the basis of next correlations:
𝑣 = {(𝑣̅ ; 𝜗̅ ; 𝛾̅ ) |𝑖 ∈ 𝐼; 𝑚 ∈ 𝑀; 𝑔 ∈ 𝐺; 𝑤 = ⃐1, 𝑊 }. (12)
𝑖𝑔𝑚 𝑖 𝑔𝑚𝑤 𝑖𝑔𝑚𝑤 і𝑔𝑚𝑤
𝑤
Where ϑigm is certainly an expert probability of the truth of his estimation of accordance of ith
w
respondent mth criteria of gth group of competence at the level of w (Table 4, column 5). Certainly,
remains probability of 1—ϑigm , that a truth value is outside his estimation. For example, in the truth
w
of the estimation of separate precedents of the very high level of competence he is sure with
probability 0.9, and at middle level - 0.4).
𝛾𝑖𝑔𝑚 is the probability of serving of every level of evaluation that is determined on the basis of
𝑤
correlation:
𝜗𝑖𝑔𝑚 (13)
𝑤
𝛾𝑖𝑔𝑚𝑤 =∑𝑊 .
𝑤=1 𝜗𝑖𝑔𝑚𝑤
An index vigm is considered as the justified unbiased estimation for general average meaning, that
is determined as a mathematical expectation of this value, where a value vigm is defined as casual,
w
for what probabilities of compensation 𝛾𝑖𝑔𝑚 are set:
𝑤
𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 = ∑𝑊
𝑤=1 𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 × 𝛾𝑖𝑔𝑚𝑤 . (14)
𝑤
Will give an example application of model at an estimation the expert of index𝑣𝑖22 , that represents
the measure of accordance of ith respondent to the requirements of the profile of specialist on a criteria
1 “owns unique knowledge” of the group of competence 2 “Professionalism” (see Table 4). Will
comment on the data of this table. An expert-defined that an employee had answered requirements to
the criteria that determine possessing unique knowledge on different levels: there are precedents of
confirmation of the very high level of knowledge of the respondent, an expert determines the truth of
the estimation (probability of truth)—0.9, feet of confidence of expert in that an employee answers the
maximal value of this level—1; there are precedents of the high level of accordance, an expert fully
reposes in it to the estimation (probability of truth)—1, degree of confidence of expert in that an
employee answers maximal value of this level—0.9; there are precedents of the middle level of
accordance, the confidence of expert in it to the estimation (probability of truth)—1, degree of
confidence of expert in that an employee answers maximal value of this level—0.95.
Based on the formula (11) the values of the base index vigm are determined for every level of
w
accordance: 𝑣𝑖21 = 1; 𝑣𝑖21 = 0.81; 𝑣𝑖21 = 0.75, on basis (f.13) probability of serving of
1 2 3
304
evaluation level is determined: 𝛾𝑖21 = 0.392; 𝛾𝑖21 = 0.434; 𝛾𝑖21 = 0.174; based on the formula
1 2 13
(14) is set an index 𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 that represents the measure of accordance of ith respondent to the
requirements of the profile of specialist on a criteria 1 “owns unique knowledge" of the group of
competencies 2 “Professionalism:”
𝑣𝑖2 = 1 × 0.392 + 0.81 × 0.434 + 0.75 × 0.174 = 0.87404.
1
3.5. Model of Determination of the Index of Identification of Key Employee
Decision-making about the identification of respondents as key employees is the prerogative of
PMD. A model that is examined is built with the aim of the grant of the help of PMD in making the
decision on the basis of the formalized tool. He is based on the mathematical vehicle of identification
of key employees on the basis of determination of index that represents the measure of accordance of
ith respondent to the requirements of the profile of specialist and is used as one of the base estimations
at a risk of dependence (1) assessment. In a model is used scales of classification of levels of
accordance that is certain in Table 4 (columns 1–4). By the formalized sign. conforming to the
requirements of key employees are that the value of the index belongs to the level of w1 or w2. A
determination in a model taken into account:
analysis of the measure of accordance of the worker to all complex of requirements to the
different groups of competence taking into account their comparative meaningfulness;
analysis of the measure of possessing a respondent by unique properties from the point of
view of the concrete group of competence or separate criteria.
It is suggested to define an index 𝑉𝑖 on the basis of the next correlation:
𝑉𝑖 = 𝑉𝑖𝐶 × 𝛿𝐶 + 𝑉𝑖𝑀𝑎𝑥 (𝑔) × 𝛿𝑚𝑎𝑥 . (15)
𝐶 𝐶
Where 𝑉𝑖 𝑉𝑖 is a complex index of identification that determines accordance of the respondent to
all complex of requirements to the different groups of competence;
δC is coefficient that determines the measure of the personal interest of PMD in the complex
estimation of respondent 0 ≤ δC ≤ 1. If 𝛿𝐶 = 1, it means that PMD is interested only in the scalene
estimation of the respondent in accordance with the requirements of the profile, if, it means that PMD
examines at an estimation only the aspects of competence, that have maximal values and prevailing
unique possibilities determine him.
δmax is coefficient that determines the measure of the personal interest of PMD in the estimation
of the respondent from the point of view of competencies, that have a maximal value and unique
properties determine it, 0 ≤ δmax ≤ 1, δmax = 1-δC .
ViMax (g)- index of identification that estimates an employee from the point of view of maximal
value of his competence for to the set groups.
A complex index is determined on the basis of the application of the method of linear convolution
of criteria:
𝑉𝑖𝐶 = ∑𝐺𝑔=1 𝑣𝑖𝑔 × 𝛽𝑔 . (16)
where vig 𝑣𝑖𝑔 is a complex index of identification of ith employee for gth group of competence;
𝛽𝑔 is the weight of gth group of competence, see formula (6).
The index of identification 𝑉𝑖𝑀𝑎𝑥 (𝑔) is determined on the basis of correlations:
(17)
𝑉𝑖𝑀𝑎𝑥 (𝑔) = max{𝑣𝑖𝑔 }, 𝑔 = ̅̅̅̅̅
1, 𝐺 .
𝑔
In accordance with argumentation that was applied at descriptions of going near the evaluation of
index of identification (15), at an estimation 𝑣𝑖𝑔 are taken into account the results of it complex
evaluation on gth group of competences 𝑣𝑖с𝑔 𝑣𝑖с𝑔 and index 𝑣𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑔
(𝑚)of maximal value of criteria on the
set group of competenсe:
𝑣𝑖𝑔 = 𝑣𝑖с𝑔 × 𝜑𝑔𝑐 + 𝑣𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑔
(𝑚) × 𝜑𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑔 . (18)
305
Where 𝜑𝑔𝑐 𝜑𝑔𝑐 a coefficient that determines the measure of the personal interest of PMD in the
complex estimation of the respondent in gth to the group of competencies, 0 ≤ φgc ≤ 1. If φgc = 1, it
means that PMD is interested only in the versatile estimation of properties of workers, if φgc = 0, it
means that PMD examines at an estimation only the aspects of competence, that have maximal values
and determine his prevailing unique possibilities.
𝜑𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑔 is coefficient that determines the measure of the personal interest of PMD in the
𝑚𝑎𝑥
estimation of the respondent from the point of view of criteria of competencies, that have a maximal
value and determine his unique properties 0 ≤ 𝜑𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑔 ≤ 1, 𝜑𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑔 = 1 − 𝜑𝑔𝑐 .
A complex index viсg is determined:
𝑣𝑖с𝑔 = ∑𝑀
𝑚=1 𝑣𝑖𝑔 × 𝛽𝑔𝑚 .
𝑚
(19)
Where 𝑣𝑖𝑔𝑚 a value of mth criteria of gth group of competence of ith worker, see formula (14);
𝛽𝑔𝑚 is the weight of mth criteria of gth group of competence, see formula (4).
The index of identification is determined on the basis of correlations:
𝑣𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑔
= max{𝑣𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑔
} , 𝑚 = ̅̅̅̅̅̅
1, 𝑀. (20)
𝑔𝑚
Possibility of consideration of results of identification with difference fluctuation of correlations of
coefficients 𝛿𝐶 , 𝛿𝑚𝑎𝑥 , 𝜑𝑔𝑐 and 𝜑𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑔 gives PMD the vehicle of imitation design with the aim of
analysis of alternative variants of evaluation of an employee from the point of view of the set aims of
authentication.
4. Discussion of Results of Research of Approach of Realization of the Stage
of Identification of Key Employee
The got results of the research to testify that approaches, models, and methods that fold only
information technology of authentication, create the effective tool of influence on the quality decision
of one of the major and actual problems of minimization of risks of dependence on key employees.
The universality of the built models allows lightness to apply the got tool in any organization. Taking
into account the problem of conceptual vagueness and weak structured of data, that they are
characterized, application of the system constrained models is offered that are based on: to the
dominant role of expert opinion; principles of maximally possible formalization of processes; the
validity of application and expansion of possibilities of mathematical-logical methods of expert
evaluation; to the comfort for specialist interactive office hours with a tool.
The got results of experimental calculations to testify that an expert gets comfortable enough
interactive tool of transformation of quality estimations in the quantitative expression of their weight
Considerably specify authenticity of estimation of е the expert of comparative meaningfulness of
criteria of competence and their groups, that an expert gets the possibility to take into account the
different degrees of advantage of levels that are based on the known scale of comparative estimations
of the method of analysis of hierarchies. Got results of treatment of estimations of experts after
offered by the system of equalizations (3)–(8) testify that determining the weight of criteria of
competence and their groups (Table 3) is formalized and does not cause complications during work of
the expert.
To the user, the mathematical vehicle of the establishment of values of criteria of competence of
key employee that is built on the basis of rules of unclear evaluation with the establishment of the
interval of vagueness was offered. He is examined as a substantial lever of increase of clearness and
authenticity of results due to that possibility to conduct the evaluation of respondent an expert on the
basis of existent divergences of the estimations due to application of five levels of accordance of the
respondent to the certain criteria of competence (9) is given (14), gradual specification the estimations
taking into account confidence in the exactness of the evaluation (10)–(11) and task probabilities of
accordance of properties of respondent to every level (12)–(14).
306
5. Conclusions
The approach of realization of the stage of identification of key employees is investigational on the
basis of system linked bases of models of expert evaluation with the use of modern possibilities of the
systems of support of making the decision. Models that are examined, grants of the help of PMD built
with an aim in making the decision on the basis of the formalized tool. It is based on the mathematical
vehicle of identification of key employees on the basis of determination of index 𝑉𝑖 that represents the
measure of accordance of ith respondent to the requirements of the profile of specialist and is used as
one of the base estimations at risk of dependence assessment.
The got results of experimental calculations to testify that realization authentications of key
employees, that is completed by determination of index, on the basis of the offered formalized vehicle
does not cause inconveniences. He gives the possibility of PMD to be based in the estimations both on
the analysis of the measure of accordance of the worker to all complex of requirements to the different
groups of competence and to take into account or be based in the estimation only on the measure of
possessing a respondent by separate unique properties.
It is necessary to mark, that herein investigational does not pay attention to the grouping of results
of questioning of different experts that are the necessary component of information technology and
mortgage of a considerable increase of efficiency and authenticity of results. Therefore, the question
of selection of the group of experts on the basis of analysis, estimations and to the formalized account
of the measure of their competence, creation of mathematical vehicle of the grouping of estimations
of experts with control of sufficiency of measure of the logic of their ideas, measure of the dispersion
of estimations of separate expert and accordance to the measure of co-ordination of opinions of
different experts it is planned the set requirements to work at further researches.
6. References
[1] T. Calo, Talent Management in the Era of the Aging Workforce: the Critical Role of Knowledge
Transfer, Public Personnel Management 37 (2008) 403–416.
[2] P. Cappelli, Talent Management for the Twenty-first Century, Harvard Business Review, 2008
74–81.
[3] A. Cummings, G. Oldham, Enhancing Creativity: Managing Work Context for The High Potential
Employee , California Management Review 40 (1997) 22– 38.
[4] V. Garrow, W. Hirsh, Talent management: Issues of Focus and Fit, Public Personnel Management
37 (2008) 389–402.
[5] T. V. Rao, S.Varghese, Trends and Challenges of developing human capital in India, Human
Resource Development Internationa 12 (2009 15–34.
[6] V. Minina, A. Krupskaja, N. Zubenko, Kljuchevye sotrudniki organizacii: podhody k identifikacii
i problemy upravlenija, Kadrovik. Kadrovyj menedzhment, 1 (2011). URL: https://hr-
portal.ru/article/klyuchevye-sotrudniki-organizacii-podhody-k-identifikacii-i-problemy-
upravleniya.
[7] V. Minina, A. Krupskaya, E. Dmitrienko, Human Resource Management in Project-Based Firms:
Core Employees Focus, STROI-NETWORK, Business Networks in Russia: Final Report (2009)
29–49. URL: http://portal.hamk.fi/portal/page/portal/HAMK/Tutkimusja_kehitys/Valtakunnall
iset_verkostohankkeet/STROI_Network/Publications/STROI_Part2_%20SNi_20 10.2.26.pdf
[8] Je. Narushev, Minimizacija zavisimosti kompanii ot "kljuchevyh sotrudnikov", 2019. URL:
https://blog.liga.net/user/enarushev/article/33724.
[9] S. Rudenko, Ocenite riski uhoda kljuchevogo sotrudnika. Skol’ko poterjaet kompanija?, 2016.
URL: https://bru.in.ua/business-jurnal/upravlenie-personalom/ocenite-riski-uhoda-kljuchevogo/
personalom/ocenite-riski-uhoda-kljuchevogo.
[10] H. P. Berg, Risk management: procedures, methods and experiences, RT&A 1 (2010) 79–95.
[11] V. A. Kravchenko, Funktsionalnyi ta intehralnyi pidkhody do upravlinnia pidpryiemnytskymy
ryzykamy: teoriia ta praktyka, Problemy systemnoho pidkhodu v ekonomitsi 2 (2008). URL:
http://ecobio.nau.edu.ua/ index.php /EPSAE/ article/view/4012.
307
[12] Y. Dai, J. Yan, X. Tang, H Zhao, M. Guo, Online credit card fraud detection: A hybrid
framework with big data technologies, IEEE Trust Com-Big DataSE-ISPA (2016) 1644-1651.
doi: 10.1109/TrustCom.2016.0253
[13] C. Amancei, Practical methods for information security risk management, Informatică economică
15 (2011) 151–159. URL: https://doaj.org/article/13c5c77f151d48ca91c628a37af70b3c.
[14] Yu. I. Khlaponin, O.V. Izmailova, Pidkhid do zabezpechennia zakhystu korporatyvnykh
informatsiinykh system v budivnytstvi, Upravlinnia rozvytkom skladnykh system, 31 (2017)
126–131.
[15] Y. Khlaponin, O. Rudnitska, S. Kondakova, A. Kondakova, V. Ternavska, Y. Vasiliu: The
employer and employee reputation, in: the Ukrainian cyberspace and social internet-services,
2020. CEUR-WS.org, online CEUR-WS.ORG/Vol-2588/paper17.pdf
[16] H. V. Krasovska , O. V Izmailova., K. K. Krasovska, Prototyping of intellectual decision support
system for organizational and technological trainings in construction, in: XII International
scientific and practical conference, “Areas of scientific thought”, 2015/2016, pp. 101–105. URL:
http://journals.uran.ua/eejet/article/view/3881/3557.
[17] O. V Izmailova., H. V. Krasovska, Pidhid do pobudovy vidkrytoi’ bazy modelej SPPR po ocinci
investycijnyh proektiv tehnogennoi’ bezpeky, Upravlinnja rozvytkom skladnyh system 33 (2018)
118–124.
[18] T. Saati, Prinjatie reshenij, Metod analiza ierarhij, M., Radio i svjaz, 1993.
[19] T. -T. Tran, Applying AHP in Evaluation of Vietnamese Commercial Banks Applying AHP in
Evaluation of Vietnamese Commercial Banks, International Journal of Analysis and Applications
17 (2019) 132–166. URL: https://doaj.org/article/97e7d7788e814d4dbf419c6ff1657cf5.
[20] A. Gorener, H. Dinçer, Ü. Hacıoğlu, Application of Multi-Objective Optimization on the Basis of
Ratio Analysis (MOORA) Method for Bank Branch Location Selection, International Journal of
Finance& Banking Studies, 2 (2013) 41–52. URL:
https://doaj.org/article/3e467f7f09974abcae33d4c21be59d22.
[21] O. V. Izmailova, H. V. Krasovska, K. K Krasovska, Pidhid do pobudovy scenariju rozv’jazannja
zadachi pidtrymky pryjnjattja rishen’ po ocinci zhytlovyh ob’jektiv neruhomosti, Upravlinnja
rozvytkom skladnyh system 16 (2014) 86–95.
[22] M. Z. Zgurovskyj, N. D. Pankratova, Strategyja tehnologycheskogo predvydenyja v
ynnovacyonnoj dejatel’nosty, Systemni doslidzhennja ta informacijni tehnologii 3 (2003) 7–24.
308