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    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Opinion nets for reasoning with uncertain context information</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Yves Vanrompay</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Yolande Berbers</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Computer Science Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Belgium</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Context-aware systems must be able to deal with uncertain context information. We propose a generic context architecture and representation that incorporates the uncertainty of context elements in terms of upper and lower bounds of probabilities. It is shown how opinion nets can be used to reason with these upper and lower bound probabilities. In this way it is possible to combine ambiguous or con°icting context information that comes from di®erent sources. Moreover, information coming from di®erent sources can be combined with experience learned from the past in a clean way.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
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  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>Pervasive systems that can adapt to changing environments and availability of
resources must be aware of their context. These systems sense and react to
context. Most systems make the assumption that the context they use is completely
accurate. However, the information about context may not come from a reliable
source, may be out dated, not available or may be erroneous. Firstly, a
contextaware system senses its context via a network of sensors working together. The
resolutions, accuracies and formats of these sensors can di®er from each other.
The resulting sensed values can have con°icts and ambiguities. The second cause
of uncertainty are the current limitations of the underlying reasoning systems
that deduce high-level context information from low-level sensor data. Lastly,
due to the asynchronicity of context acquisition and use of context we must deal
with the imperfection and aging of the context information. A challenge for the
development of real-life and commercial context-aware systems is therefore the
ability to handle uncertain and ambiguous context information.</p>
      <p>We propose a generic context architecture consisting of context synthesizers,
providers and consumers. Context elements are represented as predicates, with
which are associated upper and lower bound probabilities. Then opinion nets
are used to reason with these probabilities. If the context comes from di®erent
sources contradictions and ambiguities can arise. It is shown how opinion nets
can resolve con°icts and ambiguities by combining several probabilistic inputs
to a single output.</p>
      <p>This paper is organized as follows. In section 2 the context architecture and
representation are described. In section 3 we introduce opinion nets and show
how they can be of great value to deal with uncertainty in context-aware
systems. Section 4 gives an overview of related work and compares it with the
presented approach. Finally, section 5 gives an outline of future work and draws
conclusions.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Context architecture and representation</title>
      <p>
        The context architecture is a generic infrastructure inspired by Gaia [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]. It
supports gathering contextual information from sensors, inferring higher level
context and delivering context information to the correct entities. A context provider
provides context information in a synchronous way. A context consumer or
context synthesizer can invoke the provider in order to acquire information about
context. A context synthesizer is an aggregator of context information from
di®erent sources. A context consumer is an entity that needs context data. A
context consumer can retrieve context information by sending a request to the
context provider. Every component can play more than one role. A component
can be a context provider if it provides context data about a speci¯c domain
and at the same time a consumer if the component also needs data from other
domains.
      </p>
      <p>The general uncertainty model is based on predicates representing context
elements or facts with associated con¯dence values. The predicate name
describes the context element. The arguments are mostly of the form
subjectobject or subject-verb-object, e.g. location(John, in, room3, lower, upper) or
activity(room7, conference, lower, upper). The con¯dence values of the
predicates are expressed as upper and lower bounds of probabilities. Alternatively we
could express con¯dence values as a probabilistic value together with an accuracy
measurement of the probability. We will call the con¯dence value an opinion.
3</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Opinion nets</title>
      <p>
        In a simple approach we could work with a singular probabilistic value to indicate
the frequency that a predicate is true. However, in opinion nets [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ] , each opinion
is translated into a range of probability numbers. That range is speci¯ed as an
upper and a lower bound on the probability of the predicate to be true.
      </p>
      <p>Opinions coming from di®erent sources can be tied together in several ways.
The di®erent sources could for example be one or more context providers and
context synthesizers. The combining of the inputs to one output can be done in
a context provider, synthesizer or consumer, depending on the requirements and
structure of the application. The inputs of a context provider or synthesizer can
also be put together with historical information that is learned from the past.
In that way history can be taken into account and easily incorporated in the
opinion net approach.</p>
      <p>The advantage of working with upper and lower bounds is that we can work
with imprecise probabilities. When there is not enough information to give an
exact probability, but if the system knows enough to say that the probability is
de¯nitely between 0.4 and 0.7, we can capture this with opinions. Also,
ambiguous information can be presented in a straightforward way. Lastly, con°icting
information that comes from di®erent sources can be combined in a clean way
by using opinion nets.</p>
      <p>Figure 1 shows the di®erent opinions and how they are put together, for
clarity only for the lower bounds. The opinions can be propagated through opinion
nets. The boxes are called constraint boxes, and they can be and or or boxes.
The following constraint equations govern the action of the or boxes. A and B
represent inputs and A or B represents an output. Then, l(A), l(B) and l(A or
B) are the lower bounds of the probabilities. Similarly u(A), u(B) and u(A or
B) represent the upper bounds of the probabilities.</p>
      <p>u(A) · u(AorB)
l(A) ¸ l(AorB) ¡ u(B)</p>
      <p>u(B) · u(AorB)
l(B) ¸ l(AorB) ¡ u(A)
u(AorB) · u(A) + u(B)
l(AorB) ¸ max[l(A); l(B)]
(1)</p>
      <p>The equations for the and operator are similar. The combination of these
assertions and boxes is an opinion net. An opinion net is thus a numeric constraint
net in which it is possible to keep track of a conclusion's probability.
4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Related work</title>
      <p>
        There exist several approaches for dealing with uncertain, ambiguous and
inconsistent context information. The Integrated Context Model proposed by Truong
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ] allows to construct a Bayesian Network for reasoning with context
information. Although this technique deals with uncertain context information, there is
no straightforward way to combine con°icting and ambiguous information that
comes from di®erent sources, which is possible with opinion nets.
      </p>
      <p>
        Gaia [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ] is a prototype pervasive computing middleware system that allows to
reason about uncertainty. Several mechanisms like probabilistic logic, fuzzy logic
and Bayesian Networks can be plugged in. Context information is represented
as predicates. Each predicate is described as a class in an ontology de¯ned in
DAML+OIL. A con¯dence value between 0 and 1 is attached to a predicate.
Since our context architecture and representation is based on Gaia, opinion nets
could be plugged in as a reasoning mechanism in Gaia.
      </p>
      <p>
        Several techniques can be used to deal with imperfect context. However, Dey
and Manko® [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ] argue that in realistic scenarios not all ambiguity in the data
can be removed. Moreover, certain human aspects of context cannot be sensed
or inferred by technological means. Their proposal is to involve end users in
removing the remaining ambiguities through a process called mediation. The
uncertainty inherent to the context information is explicitly presented to the
user. Mediation can be ¯tted well in our approach. The opinion of the user can
be treated as an opinion next to that of the system or next to an opinion inferred
from experience learned from the past. Then these opinions can be combined
using opinion nets.
5
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Future work and Conclusions</title>
      <p>To validate our approach a simulation environment will be developed.
Experiments with context information coming from di®erent sources have to be carried
out. A test scenario can be the introduction of a vague concept like proximity as
a context element. Context-aware systems such as a portable touristic city guide
are location-aware and can suggest a tourist to visit a touristic attraction that
is nearby. Proximity however is a subjective measure of distance depending on
the context of the tourist. How close an attraction is depends amongst others on
whether the tourist is on foot or by car, what his mood is, whether he is really
interested to see the attraction and so on. Opinions concerning the proximity of
a location that come from di®erent sources can be combined by an opinion net
to a single output of a probability range.</p>
      <p>Based on a context architecture and representation, we proposed the use of
opinion nets to deal with uncertain, ambiguous and con°icting context
information. This approach allows to resolve ambiguities and con°icts arising from
information that comes from di®erent sources in a natural way. Moreover, the
reasoning mechanism with opinion nets is general in the sense that it can be
plugged in into every context system that represents information with
probabilities and accuracies. We believe that further research will show the usefullness
of opinion nets for reasoning with uncertain context information.</p>
    </sec>
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