The use of plastic bags is growing considerably, and in order to face this, governments have taken measures to discourage its use. This study evaluates the economic impact of this fact in Tarija, Bolivia, where measures have not already been implemented. The study variables are: (a) centres where bags are used, (b) quantity and size of bags used, (c) degree of environmental awareness of this problem, and (d) willingness to pay an extra charge for the use of bags. The results show that if no action is taken, the use of plastic bags will increase.
As a consequence of the emission of greenhouse gases, global warming is a growing problem.
Eighty percent of these gases come from energy sources such as petroleum, which is the
source where plastics are made, which consumption has increased, with an economic and
environmental impact [
According to PlasticEurope in 2019, the plastics industry has also generated jobs and profits in Europe in 2018, being one of the largest industries today.
In the actual markets, plastic bags can be classified into high-density polyethylene bags and low-density polyethylene bags.
Considering this situation, initiatives have arisen from diferent organizations to mitigate the
environmental impact. Thus, in 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development
promoted "sustainable development", defined as development that meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" [
The problems associated with solid waste are often on a par with the pollution of water sources
and clean air. As living beings, we are conditioned to generate waste based on our daily activities;
however, we diferentiate ourselves from other species by including inorganic waste that we
ourselves have generated. The more populated a city is, the higher the rate of solid waste
generation is, and the more space is needed for the treatment and final disposal of such waste
[
Plastic waste exists in such quantities that even if we cut of its production all at once, it will be with us for centuries. The negative impact of this kind of waste can be seen in the seas and oceans, where, due to their low density, plastics are dispersed by ocean currents, traveling thousands of kilometers from the area of origin to almost anywhere in the world. For years now, islands of rubbish have been discovered, large surface areas in all the oceans of the planet where the waste of mankind has accumulated.
The presence of plastic debris is therefore a threat to biodiversity, in particular aquatic
biodiversity, where they can be injured, immobilized or even killed. Even sedentary organisms
such as corals are harmed by plastics when the tide pushes the debris against them, fracturing
the coral and damaging the fragile ecosystem that depends on them. Recent research has
confirmed that microplastics have entered the food chain [
Situations similar to those seen in large cities in the world’s major powers can be observed in Bolivia. Plastic waste pollution and degradation is a reality that afects every population center in the country to a greater or lesser extent. From the city of La Paz, to the communities in nature reserves, there is the problem of the amount of solid plastic waste, which in many cases is not adequately disposed of. At one time plastic waste in cities may have been simply an aesthetic and tourist attraction issue, but over the years and as the population has grown, the use of plastic has increased exponentially.
With increasing concern about the negative impacts of anthropogenic activities on ecosystems,
environmental education proposals have been developed with the aim of fostering a protectionist
attitude towards the environment. This awareness that is sought to be generated in society must
be promoted by national and local governments, in agreement with educational institutions. It
will be on the basis of this general pro-environmental awareness that will give rise to policies
focused on changing negative attitudes in modern society. It is important to note that data from
any survey related to environmental awareness that shows a favourable inclination towards the
notion of natural resource protection will not always have the same response when it comes
to implementing regulations or changes, which may be considered drastic, to their lifestyles.
Similarly, the need to appear more interested in these issues may negatively afect the reliability
of such a study [
When considering the specific issue of plastic bags in the context of environmental awareness,
it must be recognised that there are no international environmental policies that sanction the
excessive use of plastic bags. Instead, the proper handling of plastic bag waste has become
the responsibility of individual governments, whether at national or sub-national level, who,
through various instruments, policies and mechanisms, express concern about the growth of
plastic bag waste [
In Nairobi, Kenya on the African continent, the risks posed by discarded plastic bags are
recognized as a source of mosquito breeding and increasing the likelihood of malaria transmission, a
serious problem considering that in 2005 their production of plastic bags exceeded 4000 tons
per month and that half of them ended up as waste, clogging sewers and causing flooding
in the rainy season [
In Australia, the NGO "Cleaun Up Australia" promotes the "Say No to Plastic Bags" campaign,
seeking the commitment of community residents, businesses, government and environmental
groups based on three rules: refuse, reuse and recycle plastic bags [
The aim of this research is to approach the object of study, i.e. the use and frequency of plastic bags, and from this, to calculate the economic and environmental impact. The study population is made up of businesses and households in the city of Tarija-Cercado (concentrated area). This approach was carried out through two instruments; the first: questionnaires addressed to households in the city of Tarija to find out their consumption habits in the use of plastic bags, environmental awareness and their willingness to pay to reduce the use of plastic bags. On the other hand, questionnaires were sent to shops in the city of Tarija to find out the quantity of 1https://sinia.minam.gob.pe/novedades/ley-ndeg-30884-regula-consumo-bienes-plastico-un-solo-uso-que-generan bags given to the user. The sample was 599 people defined on the basis of the population of the city (Figure 1) and its distribution according to its districts.sv The statistical analysis was descriptive and inferential, using the SPSS statistical package.
In order to analyse the impact of plastic bag use in the city of Tarija, primary information was collected from the city’s inhabitants about consumption, awareness and environmental measures. The data analysis included: descriptive, a non-parametric analysis (Chi Square) that allowed us to identify those traits of people who used plastic bags and an econometric model that allowed us to forecast the consumption of plastic bags according to the main features of the user of plastic bags in the city of Tarija, given the nature of the information, the stratified sampling technique was applied.
(a) Gender of Respondents (b) Age of respondents
This first section details the demographic features of the sample, such as gender, age, number of household members, level of education and district of origin of the respondents. (a) Number of household members (b) Level of education of respondents
Finally, the information has been collected according to district and population (according to data from the Territorial Ordering of the city of Tarija).
A key element in this research is to know the frequency with which people visit diferent consumer establishments, which allows us to identify the main establishments as well as to infer the consumption of plastic bags in the city of Tarija.
In this case, based in the mean show that respondents visit more small business, restaurants, markets and street vendors. However, no matter the place, plastic bags are the preferred way to carry their shops, highlighting supermarkets and shopping centres.
In order to understand the attitude of Tarija’s citizens with respect to current environmental problems, the study participants were asked to evaluate these problems according to their degree of relevance and the need for the corresponding authorities to address them.
For this part of the study, the sources of pollution that could afect the city were considered to be: air pollution, water pollution, noise pollution and problems related to the generation and management of solid waste, with special emphasis on plastics. According to the information collected, it was observed that for the population, the issue of water and its correct treatment is the greatest source of concern, while noise pollution is of lesser concern than the others.
Solid waste pollution, as far as the consequences on ecosystems that can be at a local and even global level. Considering this, the degree of awareness is analyzed according to the level of relevance they perceive with respect to this pollution.
Around 50% of Tarija’s population recognizes that solid waste pollution is in some degree of importance, and should be addressed. The problem is considered of high environmental concern by 33% of the population.
In order to understand the measures to be applied to reduce the use of plastic bags, it is necessary to know at what level the citizens of Tarija understand the environmental consequences linked to the generation of this type of waste. With this purpose, public opinion has been consulted regarding the degradation time of three types of bags: paper, plastic and domestic reusable bags.
In general, there may be a predisposition to support their reduction in their daily lives.
If we consider reusable bags as those made of diferent materials, such as sacks, cloth bags or recycled materials, public opinion is much more divided than in the previous cases.
Encouraging people to use bags made of diferent materials for shopping could be an option to reduce dependence on plastic bags, which they recognise as a material with a long shelf life.
The practices linked to solid waste management, including especially plastic bags, are expressed in the following chart:
The concept of "waste" includes everything from making use of the collection service provided by EMAT, to irregular activities such as burning and disposal in vacant lots inside and outside the city. The other categories include attitudes that are more friendly to the ecosystem, such as reusing plastic bags, sorting waste according to its characteristics, and even composting.
Considering that the population has a tendency to throw away their waste, it may be possible to implement measures to motivate the practice of recycling and composting at household level. It is interesting to note that, although the largest percentage reflects a neutral attitude towards waste, more than half of the population has knowledge about the proper handling and treatment of this type of waste, as expressed in the following graph.
A closer look at the positive attitudes of the population shows that District 12 and District 2 are those with the highest afinity to recycling, reuse and reuse of solid waste, which could be the most likely to accept new initiatives to reduce the use of plastic bags.
To make the research more consistent and robust, variables that could influence the use of plastic bags have been contrasted, identifying three possible dependent variables: Willingness to change the use of plastic bags, Willingness to pay for the use of plastic bags and consumption of plastic bags. The first step in performing the various analyses is the normality test for these variables. The analysis is detailed below:
In all cases, normality is not accepted so the non parametric analysis is the way to threat the information.
When analyzing the factors that may influence the willingness to change the use of plastic bags in the city of Tarija, variables such as gender, age, level of education and the degree of awareness of the time it takes for plastic bags to disintegrate were taken into account. Considering the type of variables involved, a Chi-Square analysis was carried out, which is detailed below:
The values obtained (p-values) for each of the variables reflect the fact that when thinking about changing the use of plastic bags, one has to work with the degree of awareness that exists about the bags, leaving aside the rest of the variables.
Considering that the degree of awareness of the time it takes for plastic bags to disintegrate, has been found to be a fundamental element, we have proceeded to contrast what this knowledge depends on, and for this we have taken into account the district they come from, age, gender, level of education and number of family members. Once again, given the nature of the data, Chi-Square analysis was applied.
Proposing a model for predicting the consumption of plastic bags by an inhabitant in Tarija is one of the objectives of this work. For this purpose, multiple regression analysis has been used with the diferent variables. The results are shown below: Therefore, the monthly plastic bag consumption prediction model looks like this: = 0 + 11 + 22 + 33 (1)
Where, 0 = Constant, 1 = District, 2 = Age, 3 = Knowledge of the disintegration time of plastic bags.
According to the data collected, an estimate has also been made of the amount of plastic bags consumed in the Cercado province of the Department of Tarija from 2019 to 2025. For this purpose, the projection technique applied was the projection with a percentage value.
Prior to this analysis, it is important to know some relevant data collected. Firstly, the individual behaviour of average plastic bag consumption according to seasonality. • Population Cercado Province: 261,188 inhabitants • Wholesale bag = 0.24 ctvs • Growth Rate: 2% (Calculated on a seasonally adjusted basis)
Based on these parameters, and assuming the actual situation. It has been estimated that for 2019 there has been an approximate consumption of 108,526,884 plastic bags, which in economic terms represents an economic cost of $us. 3.742.306. However, for 2025 this annual cost increases in 14%.
One of the objectives of this work is to analyze the impact that the law would have on plastic bag consumption. For this purpose, in addition to the current scenario, two other scenarios are considered: the first one called "pessimistic" and the second one called "optimistic". Year
In the worst scenario, where no law is applied, the trend show that for 2025, approximately 137.321.131 plastic bags will be consumed, representing an increase in the annual cost of 21%.
Finally, in the best scenario where the law is applied, the results shows that from 2019 - 2025 just an increase of the 6%.
It is concluded that the implementation of measures can reduce the consumption of plastic bags in Tarija. So far, our first conclusion is that people have the perception that supermarkets, shopping centers and street vendors should provide them with plastic bags for free. Then authorities have to increase their efort in this establishment in order to make aware. About seasonality, in spring and summer more bags are consumed. In addition, it has been shown that the more remote districts of the city are more aware of the situation. Also, the law should be accompanied by socialization programmers, in the non parametric analysis some clues are given. Authorities must design these plans having attention in the age, district, formation and the number of the families.
As this is an exploratory research that evaluates measures to reduce the use of plastic bags, an econometric model has been proposed to predict the consumption of plastic bags by each inhabitant according to age, environmental awareness and district. In this model, higher consumption is identified in the first districts (central and commercial zone), apparently younger people have less consciousness in the consume of bags.
If current conditions are kept up, the trend is towards an increase in plastic bag consumption. These situation is not only backup by the statistical analysis, also by the economic quantification and financial projection. Finally, our sample seems to agree for economics measures as a way to mitigate this problem. Therefore, if this law that targets the consumption of plastic bags is applied, we can gradually reverse this situation.