=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-3040/paper7
|storemode=property
|title=Integral Assessment of the State and Development Potential of Info-Communication Infrastructure for Ensuring Sustainable Digital Development
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3040/paper7.pdf
|volume=Vol-3040
|authors=Tatiana A. Kuzovkova,Tatiana Yu. Salutina,Olga I. Sharavova
}}
==Integral Assessment of the State and Development Potential of Info-Communication Infrastructure for Ensuring Sustainable Digital Development==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3040/paper7.pdf
Integral Assessment of the State and Development
Potential of Info-Communication Infrastructure for
Ensuring Sustainable Digital Development *
Tatiana A. Kuzovkova (0000-0002-0883-0469)1, Tatiana Yu. Salutina
(0000-0002-6901-3059)1, and Olga I. Sharavova (0000-0002-5910-829X)1(*)
1 Moscow Technical University of Communications and Informatics,
Moscow, Russia
tkuzovkova@me.com, salutina@list.ru, olgasharavova@yandex.ru
Abstract. In the context of high digital transformation rates of the economy
and society, complex assessments, necessary for monitoring ongoing
processes and developing constructive management tools to ensure
sustainable development, are relevant. The paper reveals the essence,
parameters, and procedures of an integral method for assessing the state and
potential of the development of info-communication infrastructure, which
plays a critical role in developing the digital economy. The integral
approach to assessing the development of info-communication
infrastructure is based on the following principles: (1) building a
hierarchical system of indicators and (2) integrating private parameters. The
following measurements are made: (1) the state and potential of
development, (2) quantitative assessment of reserves and potential
opportunities, (3) the possibility of comparative analysis in time and space
for each object. These actions are done in two planes: in a horizontal and
vertical section, according to the system of private, generalized, and integral
indicators, as well as the evolution of indicators by stages of digital
development. The results obtained allow us to conduct a deep comparative
analysis with a clear definition of reserves and potential in quantitative
terms, that is, to specify management decisions in developing the info-
communication infrastructure of the digital economy. The discussion
regarding the existing methods reveals many advantages of the proposed
method in integrating complex multi-factor developing network and
infrastructure systems.
Keywords: Infocommunication infrastructure · State · Development
potential · Integral method · Monitoring digital development
1. Introduction
The high rates of digitalization of the economy and society in the country, the
interests of ensuring national security, public administration, and socio-economic
* Copyright © 2021 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative
Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
development dictate the need for the progressive development of the information
and communication infrastructure [ICI]. Effective methodological support of
managing the sustainable development of the national economy, taking into
account catalytic and strategic role, is based on a comprehensive measurement and
monitoring of the ICI state and potential development. In this context, these
measures become an effective mechanism for developing regulations to create a
single national (global) information space by identifying and eliminating regional
imbalances, adjusting national or international policies for the digital development
of the economy and society.
Existing international and national approaches to measuring digital
development are primarily based on the rating method for assessing the position of
countries (regions) in the world by composite indexes, which allows for
determining the current rating of the research object, and in dynamics – to
estimate the success or lag of countries in the expansion of info-communication
technologies [ICT] and the development of info-communication. However, these
methods cover only fragments of multifaceted and multi-factor digitalization; they
do not provide a unified, general, and comprehensive description of the
effectiveness of the ongoing digitalization, nor do they quantitatively disclose the
available reserves.
The documents of the national program Digital Economy of The Russian
Federation aim to “create a stable and secure information and telecommunications
infrastructure for high-speed transmission, processing, and storage of large
amounts of data accessible to all organizations and households.” Communication
networks of the new generation must meet the requirements of digitalization of the
economy and society in terms of technical and technological parameters. With the
development of the digital economy, the burden on the ICI increases many times.
Therefore, users need the power, flexibility, and availability of modern digital
networks for various platforms and services in electronic form. At the same time,
the concept of the user is changing dramatically since in the context of digital
transformation, not only people fall into this category but also connected technical
devices of the industrial Internet of Things, the number of which is many times
greater than the number of people (Schwab, 2016).
During the period of digital development, the ICI is subject to significant
requirements to ensure the sustainable development of the economy and society,
such as multiple traffic growth, growth of speed, channel capacity, high quality,
minimal data transmission delays, as well as providing virtual network functions,
unlimited scalability of cloud resources, operational big data analytics, security,
integration of info-communication business with other related activities
(Kuzovkova, Kukharenko & Salutina, 2019, pp. 38).
Thus, a comprehensive system for assessing the ICI development should
consider both quantitative parameters of accessibility, network security,
technology progressiveness, and the intensity of use in the economy and social life
of the population along spatio-temporal trajectories, and the development
potential, taking into account the requirements of the digital economy and its
development stages.
2. Materials and methods
Assessment of the state and potential of ICI development in the context of
economic sectors and regions and the comparison of achieved indicators with
potential levels should serve as a quantitative basis for managing the sustainable
development of the digital economy, determining measures to accelerate the
progressive development of info-communication, and intensify the use of digital
technologies in the ecosystem of the national economy and society (Bukht, &
Hicks, 2019). Thus, a comprehensive analysis of the ICI development should use
an integral approach that focuses on building a hierarchical system of private,
generalized, and integral indicators of the state (achieved level) and development
potential, as well as applying the method of integrating actual (growth rate)
private indicators.
The method of integral assessment of info-communication development, used
in the countries of the Regional Commonwealth in the Field of Communications
(Zorya, & Kuzovkova, 2012, pp. 115), as well as the method of integral
assessment of digital development developed by the authors (Kuzovkova,
Kukharenko & Salutina, 2019, pp. 94-95), can serve as an example of an effective
methodological tool for managing the ICI development based on the integral
approach.
The methodological basis of the integral approach to the complex assessment
of informatization can be found in the work of V. Vasiliev and T. Salutina (2005).
According to N. Zorya and T. Kuzovkova, the theoretical basis reveals the system
essence of the ICI development:
It is a multi-parameter and multi-factor process of changing social production
and society based on the purposeful use of ICT, networks, and means in various
socio-economic areas. These measures contribute to the transition to an advanced
ICI state and the formation of an information society. The effect of ICI
development is determined by the joint synergetic result of the evolutionary
change of specific parameters of ICI development in terms of infrastructure
availability, its progressiveness, and intensity of use, supported by the
effectiveness of the implementation of the informatization strategy (Zorya, &
Kuzovkova, 2012, pp. 216).
Fig. 1 shows the hierarchical system of ICI development indicators at the first
stage of digital development of the Russian Federation.
High dynamics characterize the ICI development due to scientific and
technological progress, digitalization, and business model transformation.
Consequently, when forming the system of indicators of the state and potential of
ICI development, one should take into account the evolution of target criteria by
the stages of digital development and the impact of digital transformation on
industry and results at the national level (Salutina, Kuzovkova & Kukharenko,
2019, pp. 92-93).
The methodology for integral assessment of the ICI development is based on
the principles of goal setting, the correlation of parameters and scales of
measurement of particular indicators with the main properties of the process under
study by (1) stages of their evolution, (2) reduction of variation of indicators
through normalization, (3) methods of hierarchical system construction and
integration of a set of indicators, (4) ranking and determining the potential for
growth rate parameters.
Fig. 1. The hierarchical system of indicators for assessing the state and potential of ICI
development. Source: Compiled by the authors.
The integral coefficient of the ICI state (Kisici) can be determined based on an
additive model of equivalent (actual or normalized values) or by taking into
account the significance of the weighted average value of the generalized
indicators:
Kisici = ∑Kobsici j / 4; Kisici = Kobsici j * dj,
where:
Kobsici j – j-th generalized coefficient included in the integral coefficient (Rel.
units);
dj – the weight of the j-th generalized coefficient (Rel. units);
4 – the number of generalized coefficients included in the integral coefficient of
the ICI state.
The calculation of the generalized coefficients of the ICI state is carried out in
the same way using an arithmetic mean (simple or weighted) based on partial
indicators-components of the generalized coefficients. Besides, the ratings of the
federal districts on indices of potential have the opposite orientation relative to the
ratings of the state of ICI development due to the economic substance of the
indicators of the state and development potential and the methods of their
calculation.
To obtain an integral assessment of the ICI development, we consider the
concept of development potential to achieve higher values of parameters that have
already been achieved in other sectors of the economy or regions of the country
(Kuzovkova et al., 2019). The main goal of fulfilling the potential of ICI
development is to reduce the level of uneven development of networks across
territories and the intensity of ICT use across sectors of the economy and society.
In other words, it is necessary to ensure the harmony of the ICT use and the
balance of communication networks in terms of bandwidth, information security,
and speed of information transfer in the regional-subject perspective.
Therefore, a scientifically sound way to determine the ICI development
potential is to identify the difference between the achieved parameters and the best
ones in terms of the set of research objects and to calculate the indices of the
potential capabilities of ICI development for each parameter ΔIпотj in the form of
a growth rate. The integral potential index of ICI development is calculated based
on the average arithmetic growth rate of potential opportunities:
ΔIipdici = ∑ Δ Iobpdici j / 4.
The proposed methodological apparatus comprises a set of methods and a
sequence of the following analytical actions:
1. Calculation, statistical processing, and analysis of private, generalized, and
integral indicators of the ICI development for the research objects: regions
(districts, subjects) of the country;
2. Assessment of the state and potential of ICI development, ranking and
establishing ratings of research objects in the regional context;
3. Identification of bottlenecks in the achieved state and reserves for increasing
accessibility, security, the ICI progresS, and efficiency of ICT application in
the economy and society;
4. Definition of directions and measures to ensure the regional balance of
communication networks as the technological basis of the digital economy;
5. Evaluation of trends in the ICI development research objects given the
potential opportunities, regional specifics, grouping research objects on socio-
economic indicators;
6. Analysis of the distribution of the set of parameters of the state and
development potential of the Russian ICI.
The integral system of indicators is designed for a comprehensive assessment
of the state and potential of the development of ICI objects and subjects at the
regional and sectoral (by type of economic activity) levels and for the
development of management decisions at the national and regional levels to
ensure the harmonious, balanced, and sustainable development of the national
economy and the proportional development of the Russian regions to create a
single digital space.
3. Results
To assess the state and potential of the ICI development in Russia at the first
stages of the national digital development projects, we use (1) the targets and
criteria of the socio-economic efficiency of the national project Digital Economy;
(2) official Rosstat data (including the database Indicators of the Digital Economy
of Rosstat together with the Higher School of Economics), and (3) the data of the
Ministry of Digital Development, Communications, and Mass Communications of
the Russian Federation. Considering the target indicators of the development of
the Russian digital economy, we take into account the potential values of private
indicators of ICI development of Russia for the federal districts and developed
countries of the world, necessary for measuring the potential of ICI development.
Based on the developed methodology and the algorithm of the integral
assessment of the state and potential of ICI development, we perform the
calculations of generalized indicators, in accordance with the hierarchical system
shown in Fig. 1: (1) sufficiency and security, (2) ICI progressiveness, the intensity
of ICT use by organizations and the population, at the initial stage of digital
development (2019). The results of generalized indicators and calculation of the
integral coefficients of the state and potential of ICI development indices are
presented in Table 1, 2.
Table 1. Integral indicators of the ICI state in the federal districts of Russia at the initial
stage of digital development.
Federal Generalized state coefficients Integral state Rating of the
district Sufficie ICI Intensity Intensity coefficient integral
ncy and progress of ICT of ICT of the ICI coefficient of
security use by use by development the state of
of ICI organi- the ICI
zations popula- development
tion
Central 0.96 0.99 1.00 0.92 0.97 1
North-western
0.93 0.81 0.63 0.41 0.69 2
Southern 0.52 0.10 0.23 0.71 0.39 4
North
Caucasian 0.00 0.14 0.06 0.26 0.11 8
Privolzhsky 0.56 0.23 0.36 0.78 0.48 3
Ural 0.79 0.15 0.39 0.08 0.35 5
Siberian 0.42 0.35 0.22 0.42 0.35 6
Far Eastern 0.54 0.29 0.19 0.37 0.35 7
Russian
Federation 0.59 0.38 0.39 0.49 0.46 -
Source: Compiled by the authors.
Table 2. Integral indicators of the development potential of info-communication
infrastructure in the Federal districts of Russia at the initial stage of digital development.
Federal Generalized potential indices Integral Rating of
district index of the the
ICI integral
development index of
potential potential
ICI ICI Intensity Intensity
sufficiency Progress of ICT of ICT
and security use by use by
organiza the
tions populati
on
Central 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 8
North-
western 0.01 0.24 0.29 0.13 0.17 7
Southern 0.20 0.76 0.73 0.13 0.45 1
North
Caucasian
0.00 0.00 0.84 0.24 0.27 6
Privolzhsky
0.08 0.53 0.47 0.32 0.35 5
Ural 0.03 0.57 0.56 0.33 0.37 3
Siberian 0.10 0.56 0.61 0.16 0.36 4
Far Eastern 0.08 0.74 0.53 0.17 0.38 2
Russian
Federation 0.06 0.42 0.50 0.19 0.29 -
Source: Compiled by the authors
The results of the integral assessment of the current state of the ICI
development in Russia indicate sufficient proximity to the generalized coefficients
of the state of ICI development by adequacy, security, and progressiveness of ICI
and use of ICT by organizations and population (from 0.38 to 0.59), that is,
components of the integral characteristic. However, there is a significant variation
in the generalized and integral coefficients of the state of ICI in federal districts
from 0.11 to 0.97, caused by the disproportionality of info-communication and
variability of the socio-economic development of regions. With a sufficiently high
level of the integral coefficient of the state of the ICI in the Central District (0.97),
the North Caucasian District has almost nine times lower level (0.11), especially
in terms of the adequacy and safety of ICI, as well as the use of ICT by
organizations.
The integral index of potential ICI development in Russia at the initial stage of
digital development amounted to 0.29, which is determined by the significant
potential in ICI progress (0.42) and the use of ICT by organizations (0.5). At the
same time, the size of the potential of ICI development in the regional aspect does
not exceed 50%, which indicates an increase in the degree of equilibrium of the
ICI by regions in the past period (in 2018, the potential of ICI development
amounted to 0.39) and a decrease in the degree of potential capabilities of the
regions for the development of ICI and the use of ICT, which is within 38–45%.
The most significant potential of digital development is observed in the Southern
and Far Eastern districts (45% and 38%, respectively), especially in terms of the
ICI progress (0.76 and 0,74, respectively) and the intensity of ICT use by
organizations (0.73 and 0.53).
For each generalized indicator, horizontal and vertical analysis of the state and
potential of the ICI development is also carried out, which allows for identifying
the reserves and potential for each particular parameter of the ICI development.
Thus, it helps to define the management decisions on improving the following
factors:
1. Accessibility (by increasing the percentage of organizations and households
with broadband internet access and the percentage of socially significant
objects connected to the internet) and ICI information security;
2. ICI progress (due to the growth of the volume of information transmitted over
the internet, the level of digitalization, the share of national software, and the
availability of industrial internet with national narrow-band Internet of Things
networks);
3. Intensity of ICT use by organizations (due to the growth of the share of
expenditures for the development of the digital economy in GDP, the
industrial internet in the volume of industrial production, e-procurement,
sales, and the share of organizations using digital technologies in production);
4. Intensity of the ICT use by the population (due to the growth of the share of
users of electronic public services, the share of the population with digital
competence and literacy using the internet to order goods and services,
reducing the damage to the ecology and the natural environment from ICI).
The revealed correlations of integral characteristics of ICI development in the
regional context indicate the need to continue regional equalization of
infrastructure development and digital transformation of socio-economic activities
of the regions to ensure a unified national information space.
4. Discussion
The primary methodological approach of international organizations to measuring
digital development and transition to the information society is the rating method
for assessing the position of countries (regions) in the world by composite indices
(Karyshev, 2011). A standard set of indicators recommended by various
international organizations allows for determining the current rating of countries,
judging the success or lag of countries in the ICT spread, and the development of
info-communication. Comparison with the best rated (reference) countries at a
particular time helps one to identify the appropriate strategy for further
improvement and progressive ICT development (Vershinskaya, & Alekseeva,
2011).
Existing approaches, including rated ones, mainly give a quantitative
characteristic of the informatization process (the number of phones, computers,
and internet users) for a minimal number of indicators; nevertheless, they do not
show how well the processes of digitalization of the economy and social sector are
proceeding in qualitative and temporal vectors (Vasiliev, & Salutina, 2005. pp.
68).
The approaches used in the practice of regional analysis of Russia differ in (1)
the indicators of ICT development, (2) methods of normalization of significantly
varying parameters of digitalization, (3) the goals of analysis, (4) formation of
complex indexes and multiplicative indicators, and (5) types of regression models
(Dubinina, 2019, pp. 375-377). Although these indicators help to study the
regional distribution in many aspects of the development of the digital economy
and ICI, they are not complex enough to assess the ICI development from the
point of view of (1) the critical role of info-communication in the digital
transformation of the economy and society, (2) the synergy of the results of the
ICT use, and their impact on the quality and structure of production resources, (3)
electronic form of services, (4) virtuality, and (5) integrity of business (Bukht &
Hicks, 2019; Digital ecosystem of the economy of the future, 2019).
Essential advantages of the integral approach to measuring the state and
potential of the ICI development are the evolutionary principle of forming
indicators according to (1) the ongoing processes and stages of digital
development, (2) objective ranking of research objects (regions) by the state and
potential of ICI development in any period and regional or sectoral aspect, and (3)
defining management decisions in terms of the potential for the ICI development.
The proposed method for assessing ICI state and development potential based
on the integration of generalized and partial indicators reveals the reasons for the
results achieved and the size of the ICI development potential for each research
object. The integral approach allows one to quantitatively establish the available
reserves and potential opportunities to ensure sustainable development of the
digital economy based on the more progressive and balanced ICI development and
effective ICT use through constructive activities to develop the economy and
society in regional and sectoral perspectives.
5. Conclusion
The results of calculations of the integral coefficient of the state and the index of
the potential of ICI development based on the generalized and partial indicators
reveal the reasons for the results achieved for each research object and the
potential of the regions to improve ICI.
The system of indicators of the state and development potential of ICI is
crucial for monitoring the development of the digital economy, involving (1)
collecting data, (2) analyzing and identifying bottlenecks and reserves (potential),
and (3) developing regulations to ensure sustainable digital development. To
provide the adequacy of the analysis results to the requirements of the
development of the digital economy, when monitoring the ICI state and potential,
one should use indicators corresponding to the stages of digital development and
the target criteria of the national project Digital Economy.
The monitoring mechanism implies conducting analytical work on a special
method for integrating private and generalized parameters of the state and the
potential of the ICI development for infrastructure objects and subjects, allowing
for coordinating and making management decisions on the sustainable
development of the digital economy of Russia at the regional, national, and global
levels.
Acknowledgments
The research is carried out within the basic part of the state task of the Ministry of
Education and Science of Russia in the direction of Digital Economy and Business
Technologies during 2019–2020.
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