<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Archiving and Interchange DTD v1.0 20120330//EN" "JATS-archivearticle1.dtd">
<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Has the Pandemic Impacted my Workforce's Productivity?</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Wolf-Dietrich Zabka[</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Peter Blank</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Rafael A</string-name>
          <email>rafael.accorsig@pwc.ch</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>orsi[</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>PricewaterhouseCoopers, Switzerland Competence Center for Process Analytics and Mining Birchstrasse 160</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>8050 Zurich</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="CH">Switzerland</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>As working from home became mandatory during the COVID19 lockdown, many businesses feared negative productivity shifts originating from the new way of working based on the same processes and technology. Process Mining as a data-driven process discovery, analysis and monitoring method o ers the continuous monitoring of process performance. In practice, however, severe limitations arise when assessing the time e ort required for process execution as many enterprise resource planning systems do not record the time required for the execution of activities. In this context, the contributions of this paper are twofold: rst, we present E ort Mining as a process- and system-agnostic method that allows us to estimate the time required for process steps; second, we apply this method to compare the e ort before and during the lockdown as a means to identify productivity gaps induced by the pandemic. Our investigation has identi ed no substantial change in the employees' productivity, indicating that the underlying business processes and corresponding technology were t for purpose in both scenarios.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Process &amp; People Analytics</kwd>
        <kwd>Productivity Analysis</kwd>
        <kwd>Pandemics</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        Improving operations is a promising investment in times of stability. In times of
crisis, however, the focus shifts to survival and maintaining the current level of
operational excellence as well as liquidity become the main goal. This was also
the case when COVID-19 hit the economy, working remotely from home became
mandatory for many rms, and the environment of the people executing the
processes changed. To assess process performance, Process Mining has emerged
as a holistic and data-driven methodology in the last decade [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. Its main
purpose is to increase the operational excellence of companies through data-driven
process discovery, initiating continuous process improvement, and creating
process transparency [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. A substantial part of business process execution is based
on human interaction [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ], a component that could be critically a ected by a
lockdown and mandatory working from home. This change imposed the
questions of how well employees would adapt to the remote working, how seamless
process execution could continue and how productive employees would be in
their new environment. In particular, the assessment of human productivity or
performance imposes di culties on Process Mining. When it comes to the
judgement of human e ort for process execution, there is a crucial limitation in the
practical environment: in the most common enterprise resource planning (ERP)
systems the process steps are atomic, meaning the process steps are recorded
with a single timestamp re ecting the end of an activity. The absence of a start
timestamp makes it di cult to judge the true overall work e ort in terms of time
passed. Even though the existing literature covers the estimation of waiting times
from transition times [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ], human-generated uncertainty of logged events [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ] or
the relevance of missing life-cycle data by utilizing of predictive models [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ], to
the best of our knowledge existing literature does not tackle this challenge [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref6">1,
6</xref>
        ]. In consequence, we sought a process-agnostic method to deduct the overall
work e ort from process mining logs, which only have the end timestamp of an
activity. Based on this, the contributions of this paper are twofold:
1. We introduce E ort Mining as a method to deduct the start timestamp
based on user behaviour and measure the systemic work e ort for process
execution.
2. We demonstrate the use of E ort Mining in a practical/industry setting by
applying it to monitor changes in human behaviour during a lockdown.
Overall, E ort Mining is a natural complement to process mining, allowing the
deep-dive into the time spent per activity. This is an impactful extension when
the focus shifts from end-to-end process performance to more of a \people"
perspective and the relevant questions are centred around work time. As a result,
we provide our clients with data-driven information about how the daily working
rhythm was impacted by the lockdown and how processing times of activities
changed, even if only the end timestamp of activities was recorded by the ERP
system.
      </p>
      <p>The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Sec. 2 brie y describes
the situation our clients faced during the lockdown, which motivated the
development of E ort Mining. Sec. 3 describes the technical steps required in E ort
Mining. This includes the minimum data requirements, the executed data
transformation and the assumptions required to deduct a start timestamp. Sec. 4
reports on the results that can be achieved by using E ort Mining with a focus
on the comparison of data recorded during the lockdown in April/May 2020 and
data recorded in the previous year. The results originate from a client active in
Financial Services, but as the method is process-agnostic, the results can be seen
as indicative for any process or industry. Sec. 5 outlines the additional
experience we have gained when applying E ort Mining, the feedback we have received
until now, and the kind of applications we see for E ort Mining in the future.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Situation faced</title>
      <p>
        On 11th of March 2020, the World Health Organisation announced in a press
conference that COVID-19 was a pandemic and that immediate actions needed
to be taken by governments [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ]. In the following, many countries introduced
lockdowns to decrease mobility and retain the spread of the virus. For companies
in these countries, this meant that work should be conducted from home
whenever possible, and remote working became the new standard operating mode.
The move to working from home raised two primary concerns: rst, about the
productivity of employees since employees could not be monitored as closely
as before, and second, concerns about employee wellbeing were raised as the
boundary between home and workspace faded.
      </p>
      <p>After the initial phase of COVID-19, a common question was if and how
remote working impacted the productivity of employees. For several clients, our
team had previously executed process mining projects and created the required
data models based on data generated and stored in the clients' ERP systems.
The process mining data models were extensive, well-developed, and validated
in previous projects. Thus, it was regarded as a reliable and high-quality data
source. Further, data visualisation with process mining dashboarding tools was
already implemented. Previously, the main purpose of the process mining
infrastructure had been to ensure compliance and to identify process improvement
potentials, but now a new scope was added: the goal of these studies was to
use the existing process mining data models to identify changes in employee
performance and behaviour. To achieve this, we have created a process-agnostic
approach that is based on process mining event logs and can be used to
assess processing times for the execution of activities, gives insight into the daily
rhythm in which activities in the ERP system are executed, and estimates the
overall involvement of employees in terms of overall working hours.
3</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Action taken</title>
      <p>The starting point for these projects were existing process mining event logs as a
data source and the existing process mining infrastructure. To assess
productivity within the rm, we deduct the number of manual activities executed in time
intervals. Another relevant productivity metric is the typical execution time of
speci c activities: this metric is not available directly as the ERP systems record
only the end timestamp of an activity. However, we have developed a statistical
procedure to estimate the start timestamp. Further, we estimate the duration of
workdays based on the rst and last timestamp submitted by users on each day.
3.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Data Transformation from Event Log to E ort Log</title>
        <p>The table structure of the process mining event log is depicted in Table 1, having
the typical columns of the CaseID, the timestamp, and the occurring event.
This is the typical minimum data required for process mining. Further, the</p>
        <p>CaseID Timestamp Event UserID
CaseNo1 2020-06-04 08:35:45 EventA User1
CaseNo1 2020-06-04 08:36:45 EventB User1
CaseNo2 2020-06-04 08:37:00 EventB User1
CaseNo2 2020-06-04 09:05:30 EventA User1
CaseNo3 2020-06-04 09:05:30 EventC User1
CaseNo3 2020-06-04 09:05:30 EventD User1
CaseNo3 2020-06-04 09:05:30 EventD User1
CaseNo3 2020-06-04 10:00:15 EventD User1
... ... ... ...</p>
        <p>CaseNo9 2020-06-04 17:25:15 EventA User1
UserID of the user executing the respective process step is a piece of the required
information for E ort Mining because it is needed to add information about a
possible activity start.</p>
        <p>Based on the hypothesis that users perform multiple activities in a day for
the process in scope, we transform the process mining eventlog and create the
e ort log as shown in Table 2. This table has one entry for each manual activity
performed in the respective process. Here, we de ne one activity as a distinct
combination of the UserID and the recorded timestamp. One activity can
affect several cases and can create several events in the event log (e.g. compare
ActivityID 4 in Table 2 and entries at the timestamp `2020-06-04 09:05:30' in
Table 1). Further, we make an estimate for the processing time based on the
previous activity executed by the same user on the same day. A direct consequence
is that the processing time of the rst activity of each user on each speci c date
is missing and will be estimated in a subsequent step.
3.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>Estimation of Start Timestamps of Activities</title>
        <p>The e ort log (Table 2) generated from the event log (Table 1) provides us with a
set of possible activities being executed in the process. For each distinct activity,
we obtain a set of observed processing times from which we construct a
respective distribution. Figure 1 shows the distribution of observed processing times for
three di erent activities. The mode of this distribution we account as the most
likely or typical processing time of the respective activity inside the ERP
system. If the observed processing time exceeds the typical processing time by far,
the respective user likely executed activities outside of the ERP system. These
activities outside of the ERP system could include preparations for the
respective activity (e.g. making inquiries), executing activities in di erent processes,
administrative tasks or taking a break. Even though a detailed decomposition
of this e ect is beyond the scope of this paper and might even not be possible
without additional information, the observed processing time can serve as an
ActivityID UserID Timestamp</p>
        <p>Observed
Processing Time
N ull
60 sec
15 sec
indication for the overall working time required to execute the respective action.
Further, we can assume that the mixture of the activities outside of the ERP
systems remains consistent over time and that it is distributed homogeneously
over the users and activities if the number of users and activities is large.</p>
        <p>To estimate the start timestamp of a speci c activity, we de ne a threshold
in dependence on the typical time of the respective activity. If the threshold is
not exceeded, we use the observed processing times to deduct the start
timestamp of the respective activity. If the threshold is exceeded, we consider the
typical processing time to deduct the start timestamp. Further, we use the
typical processing time to deduct the start timestamp for the rst activity of each
day for each user, where no observed processing time is available (see Table 2).
It is essential to acknowledge that this method is an approximation and does not
deliver exact values for each activity. However, for commonly executed activities
in large organizations su cient data points are available to calculate the typical
times accurately and deduct the start timestamp of the rst activity of a user
in a reasonable manner. Overall, this method gives solid evidence about how
much time employees spend in the ERP system for all common activities of the
process.
A relevant question is whether behavioural changes occurred during the
lockdown. To tackle this question, we visualise the distribution of actions over the
day. Further, we can deduct the length of a working day based on the rst and
the last timestamp of a day. E.g., for User1 in Table 2, we would deduct a
starting time of the workday on the 4th June 2020 at 8:35 and an end time of the
workday at 17:25, resulting in a workday duration of 8.8 hours. Starting from
the workday duration in hours of individual users, it is possible to deduct the
overall working hours required to execute the respective process and the number
of FTEs involved. It should be noted that this approach neglects the duration of
the rst activity of a user on a respective day. A solution for this is to
approximate the start of the rst activity using the average observed processing time
of the respective activity.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Results achieved</title>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>Overall Process KPIs</title>
        <p>Our standard E ort Mining analysis results in a table which summarises the most
relevant KPIs describing the work time consumption of the process in scope, as
depicted in Table 3: for each activity, we quantify how often it is executed,
we deliver the typical processing time required to execute the activity in the
ERP system, the total time spent in the organisation to execute the respective
activities in the ERP system, as well as the overall working time required. If
required, it is also possible to break down the results for di erent organisational
units and compare, for instance, the processing times for certain activities across
the organisation.
4.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-2">
        <title>Evolution of Processing Times</title>
        <p>When looking at changes in the working behaviour caused by the
lockdowninduced remote working, it makes sense to look at temporal changes of KPIs</p>
        <p>Typical Overall Time Overall
Processing Times Count Activities in ERP System Working Time
listed in Table 3. In the following, we will look at the temporal evolution of
processing times, the distribution of workday duration, and the number of executed
activities. We will speci cally compare the results from April/May of 2019, the
year before the rst lockdown, and the results of April/May 2020 when the rst
and most strict lockdown was imposed on our clients.</p>
        <p>Figure 2 a) depicts how often Activity 3 was executed in each month in
scope: overall, we do not observe a signi cant increase or decrease in activities
in any period. In Figure 2 b) we aim to learn whether the typical processing
time in the ERP system for activity execution changed over time. We de ne, as
described in subsection 3.2, an upper threshold to de ne a sample and calculate
the mean of the sample as well as its standard error. When looking at the
resulting plot, we do not observe an increase in the processing time from the
moment employees had been sent home to work remotely. We rather observe
a slight constant decrease over time, while the number of executed activities
remains at a similar level (Figure 2 a)). This trend is underlined by Figure 2
c), which compares the distribution of observed processing times in April/May
2020 for Activity 3 with the observed processing times observed in the previous
year: the distribution in 2020 is shifted towards faster processing times, which
might be an e ect of a more routinised activity execution by the users. But a
signi cant e ect on performance induced due to the lockdown starting in March
2020 was neither observed for the shown activity, nor for any other activity.
In the next step, we aim to understand whether the daily routine of our clients'
employees changed during the lockdown. To achieve this, we examine the
distribution of timestamps of the recorded activities over the day, which carries
information about the activity of the ERP system users and their daily rhythm.
Further, we will look at the duration of workdays as de ned in subsection 3.3 to
elucidate if users had longer or shorter working days.</p>
        <p>Figure 3 a) compares the distribution of occurring activities over the day
for April/May 2019 and April/May 2020. The distributions appear overall very
similar: the number of recorded activities in the ERP system increases in the
morning between 7:00 and 8:00, which corresponds to the start of the
working day of the users. Activity in the ERP system decreases drastically between
12:00 and 13:00, which corresponds to the lunch break, and rises after that to
an activity level slightly lower than in the morning. Between 17:00 and 18:00,
the number of activities decreases again as people nish their workday. When
comparing the distribution of April/May 2020 during the lockdown with
employees mostly working from home with the one from the previous year, we do
not observe remarkable changes. This is indicative of the stable daily rhythm of
the employees. It is worth noting that it was possible to identify organisational
units for which late work after 20:00 increased during the lockdown (up to 3 % of
all activities were executed after 20:00). However, this is in the range of typical
uctuations of late work observed within the organisation.</p>
        <p>Figure 3 b) compares the distributions of the workday duration for both
periods. Many users participate in activities outside of the respective process
and execute only for a fraction of their actual workday activities in the process.
These users create short working days between 0 and 7 hours. Both distributions
have a clear maximum between 8 and 10 hours, which re ects the typical workday
duration. Longer working days are rather an exception for both periods in scope.
It could be that for 2020 the distribution is shifted by 0.2 to 0.3 hours to a
slightly shorter workday. However, when evaluating the temporal evolution of
the workday duration (Figure 3 c)), it becomes obvious that this is within the
range of natural uctuations.</p>
        <p>Overall, this one-o analysis provided the respective client with the security
that the productivity and the daily working rhythm of the employees did not
change measurably due to the lockdown and that no immediate control action
was required after two months of home o ce.
5</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Outlook and lessons learned</title>
      <p>This paper has presented E ort Mining, a new approach to measuring the e ort
required by activities in a process, thereby adding a novel perspective to process
mining and allowing the precise quanti cation of e ort in terms of time. We
illustrate the use of E ort Mining in a case study based on real industry data,
comparing the productivity of employees before and during a lockdown. As a
result of this analysis, the client had the security that the process execution
and employee performance was not impaired measurably by the home o ce.
However, as the scope of this one-o analysis was limited to two months after
the lockdown, long-term e ects are not covered here. Future work might extent
the time period covered by this analysis.</p>
      <p>Overall, the feedback we received on this method was excellent and the
calculated values of typical processing times and overall working times were in
good agreement with the expectations of our clients. Another validation of the
methodology was delivered by evaluating the overall working time of the most
active UserIDs: They delivered a number of working hours to be expected by
one FTE. After the initial application of e ort mining in the here presented
usecase, we used the methodology for several clients on di erent processes, such
as order-to-cash, purchase-to-pay, record-to-report and enterprise asset
management based on SAP data. We found that the methodology appears to be
process-, industry- and system-agnostic. The only requirement is that the ERP
system captures a su ciently large amount of similar activities from su ciently
active users, which is typically given for core systems of large organisations.</p>
      <p>One of the most relevant opportunities that arise through E ort Mining is
judging the systemic work e ort present in any given ERP system. As we utilise
the execution pattern of users through all process steps, we can understand how
users spend their time in the system. From that, we derive the typical
processing time for each process step, allowing us to judge the business impact of each
process execution. With e ort mining, the time spent on process steps can be
made transparent without using any additional, intrusive software component.
We utilised this approach to create transparency in terms of work e ort
executed at home during the COVID-19 induced lockdown. It became evident that
relocating employees to their own home for working did, in this case, not a ect
processing times or the number of activity executions. Further, the daily rhythm
of the system users showed no drastic change in the remote working setting. A
key message for the client was that the shift to working from home did not
compromise human e ciency in the process execution. However, one should be
careful to generalise from this case to the situation of other rms as the results
will depend on the employee behaviour and the culture of the organisation.</p>
      <p>
        An additional opportunity for E ort Mining is the quanti cation of
automation opportunities. Quantifying the systemic work e ort in hours required to
execute each process step enables us to associate a clear monetary value with
each manual activity execution. This translation of systemic work e ort into
costs allows companies to optimise their spending on business improvement
opportunities, e.g., robotic process automation initiatives [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        An analytical area heavily impacted by E ort Mining could be business
process simulation and prediction: these elds demand adequate information about
resources used as an input, including human resources [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]. A systematic
deduction of the time required to execute activities that can be scaled to all activities
required for process execution could improve the quality of the output of these
methods. Applications for this include but are not limited to the simulation of
process improvement scenarios as well as workload predictions.
      </p>
    </sec>
  </body>
  <back>
    <ref-list>
      <ref id="ref1">
        <mixed-citation>
          1.
          <string-name>
            <surname>van der Aalst</surname>
          </string-name>
          , W.:
          <article-title>Process Mining Manifesto</article-title>
          .
          <source>In: Business Process Management Workshops</source>
          , pp.
          <volume>169</volume>
          {
          <fpage>194</fpage>
          . Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg (
          <year>2012</year>
          )
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref2">
        <mixed-citation>
          2.
          <string-name>
            <surname>Arias</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>M.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          et al.:
          <article-title>Human resource allocation in business process management and process mining: A systematic mapping study Management Decision</article-title>
          ,
          <volume>56</volume>
          (
          <issue>2</issue>
          ),
          <fpage>376</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>405</lpage>
          . (
          <year>2018</year>
          )
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref3">
        <mixed-citation>
          3.
          <string-name>
            <surname>Nogayama</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>T.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          et al.:
          <article-title>Estimation of Average Latent Waiting and Service Times of Activities from Event Logs</article-title>
          .
          <source>In: Business Process Management. BPM 2016. Lecture Notes in Computer Science</source>
          , pp.
          <volume>172</volume>
          {
          <issue>179</issue>
          (
          <year>2015</year>
          )
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref4">
        <mixed-citation>
          4.
          <string-name>
            <surname>Goncalves</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>R.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          et al.:
          <article-title>Estimation and Characterization of Activity Duration in Business Processes</article-title>
          .
          <source>In: Business Process Management. BPM 2016. Lecture Notes in Computer Science</source>
          , pp.
          <volume>729</volume>
          {
          <issue>740</issue>
          (
          <year>2016</year>
          )
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref5">
        <mixed-citation>
          5.
          <string-name>
            <surname>Berkenstadt</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>G.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          et al.:
          <article-title>Queueing Inference for Process Performance Analysis with Missing Life-Cycle Data</article-title>
          .
          <source>In: 2nd International Conference on Process Mining (ICPM)</source>
          , pp.
          <volume>57</volume>
          {
          <issue>64</issue>
          (
          <year>2020</year>
          )
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref6">
        <mixed-citation>
          6.
          <string-name>
            <surname>Graafmans</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>T.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          et al.:
          <article-title>Process Mining for Six Sigma</article-title>
          .
          <source>Bus. Inf. Syst. Eng</source>
          . (
          <year>2020</year>
          )
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref7">
        <mixed-citation>
          7. WHO Homepage, https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/whodirector-general
          <article-title>-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-brie ng-on-covid-</article-title>
          <volume>19</volume>
          |
          <fpage>11</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>march2020</lpage>
          .
          <source>Last accessed 27th May</source>
          <year>2021</year>
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref8">
        <mixed-citation>
          8.
          <string-name>
            <surname>Schuler</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>J.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          et al.:
          <article-title>Implementing robust and low-maintenance Robotic Process Automation (RPA) solutions in large organisations</article-title>
          ,
          <source>SSRN</source>
          <volume>3298036</volume>
          (
          <year>2018</year>
          )
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref9">
        <mixed-citation>
          9.
          <string-name>
            <surname>Tumay</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>K.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          :
          <article-title>Business process simulation</article-title>
          .
          <source>In: Proceedings Winter Simulation Conference</source>
          , pp.
          <volume>93</volume>
          {
          <fpage>98</fpage>
          . IEEE, Coronado, CA, USA (
          <year>1996</year>
          )
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
    </ref-list>
  </back>
</article>