=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-3126/paper26
|storemode=property
|title=Using the modern modelling complex for operational forecasting of oceanographic conditions in the Ukrainian part of the sea of Azov – The Black Sea Basin
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3126/paper26.pdf
|volume=Vol-3126
|authors=Yurii Tuchkovenko,Dmytro Kushnir
}}
==Using the modern modelling complex for operational forecasting of oceanographic conditions in the Ukrainian part of the sea of Azov – The Black Sea Basin==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3126/paper26.pdf
Using the Modern Modelling Complex for Operational
Forecasting of Oceanographic Conditions in the Ukrainian Part of
the Sea of Azov – the Black Sea Basin
Yurii Tuchkovenko 1, Dmytro Kushnir 2
1,2
Odessa State Environmental University, 15 Lvivska Str., Odessa, 65016, Ukraine
Abstract
This paper addresses one of the most pressing challenges of Ukraine today, namely the
establishment of a new cutting-edge automatized system for operational forecasting of
oceanographic parameters in the Sea of Azov – the Black Sea basin.
To reestablish a national maritime prediction system of Ukraine, lost after the Russian
Federation had annexed the Crimea in 2014, the suite of dynamically coupled numerical models
Delft3D-FLOW + Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) is considered to be applied. This set of coupled
numerical models was previously adapted to the conditions of the Black Sea area with
employment of meteorological forcing fields from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model.
Results of the model trial runs, which were used to evaluate and predict the marine
oceanographic conditions in the North-Western part of the Black Sea near the Odessa Region
are presented.
The current version of the automatized modelling complex allows to obtain the following
predictive oceanographic data: wind conditions, sea level deviations from the undisturbed state,
spatio-temporal variability of the wind waves parameters, water circulation (currents) in the
coastal zones with waves taken into consideration.
Embedding the automatized modelling complex ‘Delft3D-FLOW + SWAN’ into the structure
of the intelligent information system for revealing a hydrographic situation in the Black Sea
can meet the challenge to operationally forecast the oceanographic conditions in the present
(with a hindcast up to 5 days) and in the future (up to 4 days) for the entire Black Sea basin,
focusing on its northwestern part and selected coastal areas with the required spatial resolution.
Keywords 1
The Black Sea, operational forecasting, oceanographic conditions, numerical models,
modelling complex
1. Introduction The cooperation between the Hydro-
Meteorological Center of Russian Federation and
Ukrainian authorities in terms of providing with
As a result of the occupation of the Crimean
the specialized maritime forecasts for the Azov-
Peninsula by the Russian Federation in 2014,
Black Sea basin was suspended.
Ukraine lost the national automated maritime
Consequently, there is a demanding need for
forecasting system for the Black and Azov Seas,
re-establishing the modern national system of
which was established and operated on the basis
operational forecasting of oceanographic
of the Marine Hydro-Physical Institute of the
parameters in the Ukrainian Azov-Black Sea
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
basin to meet the needs of the maritime complex,
(Sevastopol, Crimea) under financial and
technical support of the European Union [1, 2].
ISIT 2021: II International Scientific and Practical Conference
«Intellectual Systems and Information Technologies», September
13–19, 2021, Odesa, Ukraine
EMAIL: tuch2001@ukr.net (A. 1); dkush@ukr.net (A. 2)
ORCID: 0000-0003-3275-9065 (A. 1); 0000-0003-4556-0143
(A. 2)
©️ 2021 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative
Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
maritime transport infrastructure, and the Naval Delft3D-FLOW solves the Navier-Stokes
Forces of Ukraine. equations for an incompressible fluid, under the
To accomplish this task, an automated shallow water and the Boussinesq assumptions.
software complex, employing modern numerical The system of equations consists of the horizontal
models, was developed at the Odessa State momentum equations, the continuity equation, the
Ecological University [3]. This modelling transport equation, and a turbulence closure
complex was integrated into the intelligent model [15]. The hydrodynamic equations are
information system for revealing the solved either on a Cartesian rectangular,
hydrographic situation in the Black Sea [4, 5] and orthogonal curvilinear (boundary fitted), or
designed for an operational short-term forecasting spherical grid in the horizontal direction. In three-
of spatio-temporal variability of oceanographic dimensional simulations, a boundary fitted
characteristics in the Black Sea waters. (σ-coordinate system) or Cartesian rectangular
This paper presents the description of the (Z-model) approach is used for the vertical grid
structure of automated modelling complex for direction. In the σ-coordinate system the shallow
operational short-term forecasting of the water assumption is valid, which means that the
oceanographic conditions in the Black Sea waters, vertical momentum equation is reduced to the
the results of verification and validation of hydrostatic pressure relation. Delft3D also
modules, comprising this complex, and discussion provides an option to apply the so-called non-
of the prospects for future improvements. hydrostatic pressure model in the Z-model [15].
Delft3D-WAVE is based on the spectral model
2. General description of the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore Model)
[16] and computes the non-steady propagation of
structure of automated modelling short-crested waves over an uneven bottom,
complex considering wind action, energy dissipation due to
bottom friction, wave breaking, refraction (due to
The automated modelling complex for bottom topography, water levels and flow fields),
predicting the variability of oceanographic shoaling and directional spreading. In SWAN, the
characteristics in the Azov-Black Sea basin is waves are described by the discrete spectral action
built around newer generation numerical models, balance equation taking into account the source of
as compared against the ones [1, 2], which are energy density, representing the effects of
now successfully implemented to address similar generation, dissipation and non-linear wave-wave
forecasting problems in Europe [6, 7], USA [8- interactions. The following processes are
10], Australia and New Zealand [11], Asia [12], accounted for in SWAN: wave generation by
and designed for predicting the sea waves and wind; dissipation by whitecapping; bottom
water circulation in coastal areas. friction and depth-induced breaking; non-linear
The complex is based on the usage of two wave-wave interaction (quadruplets and triads).
software modules Delft3D-FLOW and Delft3D- Both modules employ curvilinear
WAVE of the suite of integrated environmental computational grids in the horizontal plane and
models Delft3D [13], developed by Deltares, the use the ‘telescoping’ technique for the results of
Netherlands. The developer granted free access to calculations.
the codes of software packages, and their use is The modules are coupled by means of a shared
governed by the GNU General Public License, interface and interact with each other. The
version 3 [14]. influence of currents on the parameters of wind
Delft3D-FLOW is a multi-dimensional (2D or waves and wave propagation is taken into account
3D) hydrodynamic (and transport) simulation in the coupled model. The computation of coastal
program which calculates non-steady flow and currents and the intensity of turbulent mixing of
transport phenomena that result from tidal and waters incorporates wave processes as well.
meteorological forcing on a rectilinear or a A correct accounting for the effects of sea
curvilinear, boundary fitted grid. It simulates waves and currents interaction makes it possible
thermal stratification in lakes, seas and reservoirs; to enhance the quality of calculation of the sea
stratified and density driven flows; tide and wind- currents, water temperature and salinity in the
driven currents (i.e. storm surges); fresh-water upper layer of the water column.
river discharges in bays; non-hydrostatic flows; The program codes of the Delft3D-FLOW and
transport of dissolved material and pollutants etc. SWAN are compiled into executable files using
the Visual Fortran and C ++ compilers. Both
modules use the same set of computational grids specified time are stored in the historical archive
and utilize all cores of workstation (or cluster of GFS forecasts at the corresponding web
nodes). The Delft3D-FLOW model splits a task resource (NCEP GFS 0.25 Degree Global
for its parallel execution on processor cores Forecast Grids Historical Archive) [19] of the US
(nodes) using the Message Passing Interface National Center for Atmospheric Research
(MPI). The SWAN model (WAVE module), by (NCAR) and can be downloaded freely. The
default, uses parallel computations on all forecasting products based on the GFS model data
processor cores in accordance with the OpenMP are used, in particular, in the operational activities
(Open Multi-Processing) standard. of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center.
The basis of the oceanographic forecast is the The modelling complex Delft3D-FLOW +
data of 10-days meteorological forecast from the SWAN is equipped with a service shell, which
global weather forecast numerical model GFS includes a graphical interface for use by end users.
(Global Forecast System). A GFS web-service This shell automates the procedure of reading
(National Operational Model Archive and meteorological information from the NOMADS
Distribution System – NOMADS) is situated in web service, filters these data and prepares it for
the United States [17]. Global Forecast System use in the models, facilitates the procedure of
model output is being produced with 0.25-degree setting up the Delft3D-FLOW and Delft3D-
resolution in space and 3 hrs. in time. WAVE (SWAN) software modules, performs
The US National Weather Service provides model calculations on nested grids (NESTING
free access to the GFS forecast data. Ongoing procedure), provides visualization technique for
operational forecasts of meteorological input meteorological data and results of
parameters are being read from the NOMADS operational forecasting of oceanographic
web resource (Data Transfer: NCEP GFS characteristics (using the QUICKPLOT software
Forecasts (0.25-degree grid) [18]. In addition, all module).
forecasts made over the past few years within a
Figure 1: Curvilinear grids for the Azov-Black Sea region: A – basic (1) and detailed (2) computational
grids; B – nested grid for water area of the Odessa region at the North-Western parts of the Black Sea
Current version of the automated software basin with a spatial resolution of Δxy = 2.5-5 km
complex initially performs the calculations on (1 in Fig. 1A). Inside the basic computational
a generalized grid for the entire Azov-Black Sea
grid, the following nested computational grids Sea, where the seaports of Chernomorsk,
with higher spatial resolution were generated: Odessa, Yuzhny are located (Δxy = 90-250 m)
1. Grid for the northwestern part of the (Fig. 1B).
Black Sea with Δxy = 0.8-1.5 km (2 in Fig.1A). Fig. 2 presents a schematic overview of the
2. Grid for the water area of the Odessa forecasting procedure, including data processing
region at the North-Western parts of the Black and interconnections between modules.
Figure 2: Diagram showing the forecasting flow and the coupling process between FLOW and WAVE
(SWAN) modules
Hydrometeorological Center of the Black and
3. Results of the forecasting complex Azov Seas, located at the Chernomorsk, Odessa
and Yuzhny ports. Furthermore, the modelled sea
trial runs drifting currents and wind wave parameters were
compared against in-situ data logged at hydro-
The task of ensuring the reliable meteorological buoy SW Midi-185 (Fugro
oceanographic forecasts with the use of numerical OCEANOR, Norway) stationed in the Odessa
models involves the implementation of Bay (46.484N, 30.785E) [3].
procedures for models’ adaptation to the Fig. 3, 4 present several results of model
conditions of the studied water areas, their verification runs for the time periods of 08.10.-
verification and validation. 18.10.2016 and 16.04.-25.04.2017, under stormy
Verification of the modelling complex was wind conditions. The assimilated meteodata from
performed by means of comparing the results of the GFS global atmospheric model was used as an
simulated water level with observational data input to the models.
from the marine hydrometeorological stations of
The verification showed promising potential a part of the operational forecasting system for
for employing the software complex of integrated predicting the oceanographic parameters of the
numerical models ‘Delft3D-FLOW + SWAN’ as Ukrainian marine environment.
Figure 3: Variability of wind-induced water level oscillations, in m, during the periods of 08.10.-
18.10.2016 (A) and 16.04.-25.04.2017 (B) in the port of Chornomorsk (1 – observational data;
2 – model results)
Figure 4: Temporal variability of the drift current velocity (A, B), in cm/s, and significant wave
height (C, D), in m, during the periods of 08.10.-18.10.2016 and 16.04.-26.04.2017 (1 – data logged at
the hydrometeorological buoy, 2 – model results)
The validation of the model complex was up to 5 days are in good agreement with the
performed by means of making the forecasts with observation data, provided that there is no
different warning times. The produced 10-days significant uncertainty of the meteorological
forecasts of storm surges and wind waves in the forecast, in particular, wind conditions predicted
water area of the Odessa region at the by the GFS model.
northwestern part of the Black Sea were compared Selected results of approbation of the
against the observed values. modelling complex in the forecasting mode using
Validation results show that the forecast of the GFS synoptic forecasts of wind conditions
wind surges and wave heights with warning time over the Black Sea, are presented at fig. 5.
Figure 5: Window for remote access from the Internet to the graphical interface of the Delft3D-FLOW
+ SWAN modelling complex, showing results of modelled sea water currents with different warning
times for water area of the Odessa region at the North-Western parts of the Black Sea
oceanographic parameters in the Ukrainian part of
4. Conclusions the Azov-Black Sea basin with assimilation of
predictive meteorological information from the
GFS global atmospheric model.
The results of the verification and validation of Operational oceanographic information, which
the complex of integrated numerical models
can be obtained as a result of the application of the
‘Delft3D-FLOW + SWAN’ demonstrate good automated software complex ‘Delft3D-FLOW +
prospects of using this complex as a part of the SWAN’, contributes to the improvement of
system of operational forecast of the variability of navigation safety, especially in shallow coastal
and estuarine areas of the sea, on the approaches [3] Kushnir D. V., Tuchkovenko Yu. S., Popov
to the sea-ports and other areas of the Azov-Black Yu. I. Results of adaptation and verification
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information will result in increasing efficiency of predicting the variation of oceanographic
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