=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-3171/paper105
|storemode=property
|title=Applied Intelligent Systems of Support for Public-Private Partnership in Foreign Economic Activity
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3171/paper105.pdf
|volume=Vol-3171
|authors=Nestor Shpak,Olha Pyroh,Marianna Tomych,Marta Voronovska,Halyna Kovtok
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/colins/ShpakPTVK22
}}
==Applied Intelligent Systems of Support for Public-Private Partnership in Foreign Economic Activity==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3171/paper105.pdf
Applied Intelligent Systems of Support for Public-Private
Partnership in Foreign Economic Activity
Nestor Shpak1, Olha Pyroh1, Marianna Tomych1, Marta Voronovska1 and Halyna Kovtok1
1
Lviv Polytechnic National University, St. Bandery str, 12, Lviv, Ukraine, 79013
Abstract
The article deals with the following applied intelligent systems designed to manage national
economies: artificial neural networks, expert systems, hybrid intelligence systems, fuzzy
systems, genetic algorithm, etc. Besides it specifies the essential components of support for
public-private partnership in foreign economic activity. These components, associated with
regulatory, institutional, analytical, financial and organizational support, can enhance the
national economy, improve economic and social infrastructure and solve pressing economic
and social problems. It is advisable to apply morphological analysis and relevant online
algorithms to maintain a rational order of their formation and, thus, identify a set of
significant stages of the analysis. Practical validation of the method has allowed one to form
the following sequence of support for public-private partnership in foreign economic activity:
financial; regulatory; organizational; institutional; analytical support.
Keywords 1
Public-private partnership, foreign economic activity, intelligent systems, support,
morphological analysis
1. Introduction
Nowadays, market relations are developing in the conditions of technological advances, innovation
processes, information accessibility and Internet penetration into all aspects of the national economy
and social existence. This creates new opportunities for governments and businesses and exacerbates
economic and social problems.
As is well-known, intelligent systems are information computing systems with the necessary
knowledge base, an algorithm of actions, intellectual support (software and instrumentation,
algorithmic and mathematical support), as a result of which the system is able to work without the
help of a specialist operator responsible for making decisions about an action [1]. They are widely
employed in various types of economic activity. For instance, decision support intelligent systems are
used in planning and monitoring activities; forecasting and classification of events; processing of
natural language texts (quasi-summarization, quasi-annotation) and others [2]. Intelligent
manufacturing systems enable timely changes in the manufacturing environment (product upgrades,
changes in manufacturing system configurations) under the influence of global competition and
consumer tastes [3].
Parsanejad A., Nayeb M. A. highlight the importance of using intelligent systems (namely, a fuzzy
assignment model) in industrial private and governmental sectors [4]. To analyze macroeconomic
structural issues for intelligent country modelling, Makriyannis E. designed a new intelligent systems
model, the Growth and Trade Country Analyser (GTCA) [5].
COLINS-2022: 6th International Conference on Computational Linguistics and Intelligent Systems, May 12–13, 2022, Gliwice, Poland
EMAIL: nestor.o.shpak@lpnu.ua (N. Shpak); olha.v.pyroh@lpnu.ua (O. Pyroh); mariana.i.tomych@lpnu.ua (M. Tomych);
marta.m.voronovska@lpnu.ua (M. Voronovska); halyna.i.kovtok@lpnu.ua (H. Kovtok);
ORCID: 0000-0003-0620-2458 (N. Shpak); 0000-0002-6714-3079 (O. Pyroh); 0000-0001-5340-1877 (M. Tomych); 0000-0002-3539-0171
(M. Voronovska); 0000-0003-0533-9268 (H. Kovtok);
©️ 2022 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
Kh. M-S. Murtazova also prioritizes the creation and implementation of artificial intelligence
techniques and intelligent technologies to support the decision-making process. The researcher also
considers fuzzy intelligent systems of administrative decision-making support as the components of
information technologies of business analytics and knowledge management [6].
Given the non-linear and uncertain behavior of current financial programmes, the financial market
applies three well-known methods of artificial intelligence, such as artificial neural networks, expert
systems and hybrid intelligence systems. There is evidence that confirms that their accuracy is higher
than that of traditional statistical methods in solving financial problems [7, 8]. The following types of
intelligent systems are used to solve complex problems in the construction industry: Expert Systems,
Fuzzy Systems, Genetic Algorithm, Knowledge-Based Systems, Neural Networks, Context Aware
Applications, Embedded Systems [9].
In the research by Abu Hassan Shaari Md Nor, Behrooz Gharleghi, NNARX as a dynamic non-
linear neural network, artificial neural network (ANN) as a static neural network, GARCH as a non-
linear econometric model and ARIMA as a linear econometric model are applied to forecast exchange
rate [10].
There are other examples and recommendations on the use of intelligent systems in various areas
of economic activity. However, intelligent systems have not become widespread in the management
of the national economy. Nevertheless, the potential for their use exists in the implementation of
public-private partnership (hereinafter “PPP”) projects in foreign economic activity. The latter is
aimed at attracting the necessary investment resources, enhancing innovation activity and developing
infrastructure. Below is a detailed analysis of these possibilities.
2. Related Works
In the context of foreign economic activity, public-private partnership is the cooperation between
the state and business structures, namely, the actors in the economic activity of Ukraine and the
foreign actors in economic activity (including, the actors in the economic activity of Ukraine with
foreign states). It is one of the conditions for attracting the necessary investment, enhancing
innovation in the economy, developing economic and social infrastructure and solving economic and
social problems.
The implementation of PPP projects in foreign economic activity determines the features of their
completion, which can be considered as PPP disincentives. According to Bondar N. M., they include a
short period of PPP projects implementation, a low level of planning, lack of private partners’ interest
in the final results of projects, ineffective legal framework, politicization, inability of local authorities
to administer contracts with private partners, PPP projects implementation delays [11, 12]. At the
same time, Fedulova L. I. indicates both incompetence and unreadiness of state partners in the face of
regional authorities to implement PPP in foreign economic activity [13].
Tarash L. I. and Petrova I. P. have assessed the readiness of the national economy for PPP, taking
into account the regulatory framework, institutional structure, functional maturity, investment climate,
financial mechanisms and the value of the sub-national adjustment factor. The obtained results
confirm only functional readiness (maturity) for PPP in foreign economic activity [14]. Therefore, it is
crucial to further develop the regulatory framework, institutional structure, functional maturity,
investment climate and current financial mechanisms as the components of PPP support.
As noted by Pavliuk K. V. and Pavliuk S. M., it is essential to provide favourable institutional
support for PPP (by establishing corresponding authorities and civil society institutions), develop and
improve the regulatory framework of PPP (its regulatory support) in terms of state support and
guarantees to private partners [15]. Stepanova O. V. also believes that the prerequisite for successful
implementation of PPP projects in various sectors of the economy and social sphere is to create an
appropriate institutional and regulatory environment [16].
Maistro S. V. points out the insufficient pace of PPP projects development at the regional and local
levels [17]. Their increase is possible with a unified approach to developing a mechanism for effective
interaction between PPP participants. Besides, this particular mechanism should be able to ensure the
successful implementation of PPP projects [17-18].
These and other problems in the PPP development have drawn increased attention to the issue of
PPP support in foreign economic activity. Consequently, the leading economists (Fedulova L. I.,
Tarash L. I., Petrova I. P., Stepanova O. V., Pavliuk K. V., Pavliuk S. M., Dubok I. P. et al.) have
identified the essential components of PPP projects. These include institutional support, regulatory
support, analytical support, organizational support, financial support. It is important to analyze each
of these components more in a detail [11-18].
The components of PPP support in foreign economic activity are presented in Fig. 1.
Regulatory support is a set of legal acts, Institutional support is a set of formal and
norms (standards, rules, procedures) that non-formal institutions, the streamlining of
should be followed in terms of PPP in their interaction and the conditions for
foreign economic activity supporting PPP in foreign economic activity
PPP in foreign economic activity
Analytical support is a system of Financial support Organizational support is a set of
collecting, preparing and using implies various structural and dynamic
accounting and analytical funds of financial organizational relationships in the
information in PPP resources in the field of PPP, their inherent
PPP field organizational management
structures, concepts of authority
delegation
Figure 1: The components of PPP support in foreign economic activity
Thus, regulatory support is a set of legal acts and norms (standards, rules, procedures) that should
be followed in terms of PPP project implementation in foreign economic activity. It relies on the legal
acts and norms which are reflected in the concept of PPP development through the coordination with
the strategy, areas and goals of socio-economic development of regions (within the national
economy).
Institutional support is a set of formal and non-formal institutions (structures), which have been
established to support PPP in foreign economic activity, streamline their interaction and operational
conditions. According to relevant recommendations [15], institutional support for PPP in foreign
economic activity involves state and local PPP authorities, civil society institutions (associations,
unions, expert and advisory committees).
Organizational support is a set of structural and dynamic organizational relationships in the field of
PPP, their inherent organizational management structures, functions, management methods and
policies. At the same time, there are no uniform standards and criteria for the organizational structure
of PPP project management [15].
Financial support implies various funds of financial resources in the PPP field (formed by financial
and non-financial institutions: development banks; investment, venture and other funds for long-term
financing of PPP projects; information, consulting, methodological, organizational, expert and other
organizations) and their inherent financing mechanisms, which include government guarantees and
tax benefits [11, 13].
Analytical support determines information support of analytical systems of PPP project
participants in foreign economic activity. It is characterized by systemic coordination of information
activities (collecting, preparing and using analytical information in PPP, as well as storing and
destroying information), software for their implementation, analytical data and indicators.
Hrytesnko L.L. explains the links between regulatory and institutional support of PPP.
Summarizing the main stages of PPP, the researcher adheres to the following sequence: developing
the regulatory framework of PPP and adjusting it to current legislation; establishing specialized units
for PPP management; analysing existing sources of funding and attracting new ones; creating a
comprehensive PPP management system [19].
In this regard, one should use the following procedure for supporting PPP in foreign economic
activity: regulatory support (elaborating the regulatory framework of PPP, as well as PPP
development concepts); institutional support (establishing specialized units for PPP management);
financial support (analysing financial tools, progress on financing projects, existing sources of
funding and attracting new ones); organizational support (creating an effective system of PPP
management). The described procedure, however, does not provide for analytical support [19].
3. Methods
Morphological analysis has been applied to maintain a rational order of supporting PPP in foreign
economic activity. The process consisted of the following stages: identifying and analysing the
problem to specify individual components (decomposition); searching for a similar problem and
options for its solution; comparing alternative solutions to the problem by studying alternative
combinations of certain management decisions; selecting an optimal alternative designed to solve the
problem (Fig. 2) [20-22].
Identifying and analysing the problem to specify individual components
(decomposition)
Searching for a similar problem and options for its solution
Comparing alternative solutions to the problem by studying alternative
combinations of certain management decisions
Selecting an optimal alternative designed to solve the problem
Figure 2: Stages of morphological analysis of components of PPP support in foreign economic
activity
The problem decomposition is presented in the form of a morphological table of PPP in foreign
economic activity (Table 1). It includes critical parameters of PPP configuration: the goals of PPP in
foreign economic activity (F1), support of PPP in foreign economic activity (F2) and its components
(F3).
Critical parameters of configuration (F1, F2, F3) can also be presented in the form of “a
morphological box”. The latter is understood as a conditional matrix that shows possible ways of
supporting PPP in foreign economic activity, as well as its components formed under the goals of PPP
in foreign economic activity. However, this has been omitted since the morphological box is an
alternative to the morphological table.
Given the specified stages of morphological analysis, the method involves the decomposition of
the problem (PPP in foreign economic activity) into constituent elements (goals, support and its
components) and determines the impact of the selected elements on the overall system. It allows one
to deliberately discard unnecessary objects (components) and minimize their number, which
characterizes an optimal state of the system [23-30].
Table 1
A morphological table of PPP in foreign economic activity
Critical parameters of PPP configuration
F1 F2 F3
The goals of PPP in foreign Support of PPP in foreign The components of support for PPP
economic activity economic activity in foreign economic activity
(1) (2) (3)
𝑎1 Improving the 𝑎1 Regulatory support 𝑎1 Legal acts
regulatory framework
(1) (2) (3)
𝑎2 Enhancing PPP 𝑎2 Institutional support 𝑎2 Legal norms
(1) (2) (3)
𝑎3 Providing favourable 𝑎3 Financial support 𝑎3 Concepts of PPP development
institutional support for PPP
(1) (2) (3)
𝑎4 Ensuring effective 𝑎4 Organizational support 𝑎4 State and local PPP authorities
cooperation between the
actors in PPP
(1) (2) (3)
𝑎5 The equality of PPP 𝑎5 Analytical support 𝑎5 Civil society institutions
partners
(3)
𝑎6 Management structures
(3)
𝑎7 Functional methods
(3)
𝑎8 Management policy
(3)
𝑎9 Financial and non-financial
institutions
(3)
𝑎10 Financing mechanisms
(3)
𝑎11 Software tools
(3)
𝑎12 Analytical data
(3)
𝑎13 Information management
4. Experimental
Therefore, it is essential to choose an optimal configuration of support for PPP in foreign
economic activity. Emphasis should be placed on those that meet the criteria of rationality (Table 1).
It follows that one should exclude irrational configurations from all the possible ones, using the
interoperability matrix (Table 2).
Table 2
The interoperability matrix of PPP configurations in foreign economic activity
F1 F2
The goals of PPP in Support of PPP in foreign
foreign economic activity economic activity
(1) … (2)
𝑎 1 𝑎 𝑖
F2 (2)
𝑎1
Support of PPP in foreign ….
economic activity (2)
𝑎𝑗
F3 (3)
𝑎1
The components of support for …
PPP in foreign economic (3)
activity 𝑎𝑗
This matrix makes it possible to take into account the critical configuration parameters (Table 1) in
its structure (Table 2) simultaneously, which means using probability values in the range [0; 1],
where:
- “1” – the occurrence of one of the alternative configurations leads to that of another;
- “0” – independent occurrence of appropriate alternative parameters of PPP configuration in
foreign economic activity.
A negative value of the probability of PPP configuration in foreign economic activity (“–1”
indicates the impossibility of simultaneous occurrence of PPP configuration parameters or event
cancellation) has not been considered. It was important to further process the data, using the Bayesian
approach to simultaneous equations estimation (https://planetcalc.ru/7683/).
Thus, negative values of the interoperability matrix of PPP configurations in foreign economic
activity, which means a decrease in the probability of simultaneous occurrence of appropriate
alternatives to critical configuration parameters, have not been taken into account [23].
It is also essential to calculate the probabilities of alternatives using the Bayesian equations system
(with two characterizing parameters with two alternatives each):
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
Р а1 (1) = Р а1 (1) а1 ( 2 ) Р а1 ( 2) + Р а1 (1) а1 ( 2) Р а1 ( 2) ,
( 2 ) (2 1 ) ( ) (1 2 1 ) ( )
Р а (1) = Р а (1) а ( 2) Р а ( 2 ) + Р а (1) а ( 2) Р а ( 2) ,
1
( )
( 2)
( ( 2)
) ( ) (
Р а1 = Р а1 а1 Р а1 + Р а1 а1 Р а 2 ,
(1) (1) ( 2) (1)
) ( )(1)
(1)
( ) ( )
Р а1 + Р а 2 = 1,
(1) (1)
( )
Р а1 + Р а 2
( 2)
( )( 2)
= 1,
(𝑗)
where 𝑃 (𝑎𝑖 ) – the probability of occurrence of the і alternative of the j critical parameter;
(𝑗) (𝑗)
𝑃 (𝑎𝑖 |𝑎𝑖 ) – the conditional probability of occurrence of the і alternative of the j critical parameter
provided that the j parameter has acquired the і value.
The conditional probability is determined using the interoperability matrix and approximated by
the fulfilment of such a condition:
0, 𝑎𝑖𝑗,𝑖−1 ,𝑗−1 = −1,
𝑃(𝑃𝑖𝑗 |𝑃𝑖 −1 𝑗 −1 ) = 𝑃𝑖𝑗 , 𝑎𝑖𝑗,𝑖 −1 ,𝑗 −1 = 0, (2)
1, 𝑎𝑖𝑗,𝑖−1 ,𝑗−1 = 1,
{
where 𝑎𝑖𝑗,𝑖−1 ,𝑗−1 – values in the interoperability matrix for the і alternative of the j critical parameter;
𝑃𝑖𝑗 – independent probability estimated by the occurrence of the і alternative of the j critical
parameter [23].
5. Results and Discussion
Calculations have been made with the help of an online algorithm of the Bayesian equations
system (https://planetcalc.ru/7683/). The input data of the modelling (the interoperability matrix of F1
and F2) are presented in Table 3.
The result is the probability of support, depending on the goals of PPP in foreign economic activity
They indicate the following procedure for supporting PPP in foreign economic activity:
1. Financial support.
2. Regulatory support.
3. Organizational support.
4. Institutional support.
5. Analytical support.
Table 3
The interoperability matrix of F1 and F2 critical parameters of PPP in foreign economic activity
F1
The goals of PPP in foreign economic activity
(1) (1) (1) (1) (1)
𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑎3 𝑎4 𝑎5
F2 (2)
𝑎1 0.14 0.4 0.1 0.03 0.33
Support of PPP in (2)
𝑎2 0.2 0.12 0.1 0.1 0.48
foreign economic
(2)
activity 𝑎3 0.12 0.26 0.39 0.1 0.13
(2)
𝑎4 0.11 0.11 0.06 0.26 0.46
(2)
𝑎5 0.09 0.03 0.05 0.2 0.63
Results of calculated probabilities of using the critical parameter, depending on the critical
parameter are presented in Table 4.
Table 4
The calculated probabilities of using the F2 critical parameter, depending on the F1 critical
parameter
F1 (𝑗) (𝑗)
𝑃 (𝑎 |𝑎 ) 𝑖 𝑖
(2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑎3 𝑎4 𝑎5
(1)
𝑎1 0.2121 0.303 0.1818 0.1667 0.1364
(1)
𝑎2 0.4348 0.1304 0.2826 0.1196 0.0326
(1)
𝑎3 0.1429 0.1429 0.5571 0.0857 0.0714
(1)
𝑎4 0.0435 0.1449 0.1449 0.3768 0.2899
(1)
𝑎5 0.165 0.24 0.065 0.215 0.315
Total 0.9983 0.9612 1.2314 0.9638 0.8453
Similarly, one can determine the order of forming PPP support components in foreign economic
activity, using the recommended interoperability matrix of PPP configurations in foreign economic
activity (Table 2) and the online algorithm (https://planetcalc.ru/7683/). The input data of the
modelling are presented in Table 5.
Table 5
The interoperability matrix of the critical parameters and PPP in foreign economic activity
F2
Support of PPP in foreign economic activity
(2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑎3 𝑎4 𝑎5
1 2 3 4 5 6
F3 (3)
𝑎1 0.1 0.06 0.05 0.21 0.58
The components of (3)
𝑎2 0.22 0.02 0.12 0.16 0.48
support for PPP in (3)
foreign economic 𝑎3 0.6 0.03 0.06 0.16 0.15
activity (3)
𝑎4 0.2 0.12 0.16 0.03 0.49
(3)
𝑎5 0.2 0.03 0.15 0.4 0.22
(3)
𝑎6 0.2 0.12 0.3 0.26 0.12
(3)
𝑎7 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.16 0.73
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(3)
𝑎8 0.06 0.23 0.01 0.21 0.49
(3)
𝑎9 0.1 0.09 0.06 0.12 0.63
(3)
𝑎10 0.1 0.12 0.03 0.02 0.73
(3)
𝑎11 0.06 0.15 0.4 0.3 0.09
(3)
𝑎12 0.1 0.16 0.2 0.2 0.34
(3)
𝑎13 0.1 0.01 0.6 0.06 0.23
The results of the modelling are summarized in Table 6.
Table 6
The calculated probabilities of using the F2 critical parameter, depending on the F1 critical
parameter
F2 (𝑗) (𝑗)
𝑃 (𝑎𝑖 |𝑎𝑖 )
(3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3)
𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑎3 𝑎4 𝑎5 𝑎6 𝑎7 𝑎8 𝑎9 𝑎10 𝑎11 𝑎12 𝑎13
(2)
𝑎1 0.23 0.24 0.16 0.13 0.21 0.31 0.16 0.40 0.14 0.38 0.39 0.10 0.28
(2)
𝑎2 0.13 0.09 0.18 0.02 0.01 0.13 0.09 0.34 0.55 0.37 0.16 0.38 0.04
(2)
𝑎3 0.10 0.03 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.21 0.17 0.31 0.19 0.21 0.39 0.03
(2)
𝑎4 0.23 0.11 0.04 0.34 0.02 0.40 0.28 0.14 0.32 0.48 0.29 0.06 0.03
(2)
𝑎5 0.08 0.01 0.15 0.05 0.24 0.22 0.23 0.06 0.55 0.35 0.25 0.06 0.50
Total 0.78 0.48 0.62 0.60 0.54 1.09 0.96 1.11 1.87 1.78 1.31 0.98 0.88
As can be seen from the obtained results, one should pay considerable attention to financial and
non-financial institutions, PPP management policy, management structure, PPP financing
mechanisms when forming the components of support for PPP in foreign economic activity.
6. Conclusions
The article analyzes applied intelligent systems designed to manage national economies (artificial
neural networks, expert systems, hybrid intelligence systems, fuzzy systems, genetic algorithm,
knowledge-based systems). It specifies the essential components of support for PPP in foreign
economic activity that can enhance the national economy, improve economic and social infrastructure
and solve pressing economic and social problems. They are as follows: regulatory support
(elaborating the regulatory framework of PPP, as well as PPP development concepts); institutional
support (establishing specialized units for PPP management); financial support (analyzing financial
tools, progress on financing projects, existing sources of funding and attracting new ones);
organizational support (creating an effective system of PPP management).
Both morphological analysis and online algorithm have been applied to determine the sequence of
their implementation (as well as of their elements). The process consisted of the following stages:
identifying and analyzing the problem to specify individual components (decomposition); searching
for a similar problem and options for its solution; comparing alternative solutions to the problem by
studying alternative combinations of certain management decisions; selecting an optimal alternative
designed to solve the problem. As the result, the procedure for supporting PPP in foreign economic
activity should be the following: financial support; regulatory support; organizational support;
institutional support; analytical support.
Further research should aim to study how one can use software products to automize
morphological analysis through expert systems.
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