=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-3171/paper114
|storemode=property
|title=Human Potential Innovatization Analysis: the System of Crisis Management Determinants Context
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3171/paper114.pdf
|volume=Vol-3171
|authors=Liubov Halkiv,Oleh Karyy,Ihor Kulyniak,Yaroslav Kis,Alexander Adamovsky
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/colins/HalkivKKKA22
}}
==Human Potential Innovatization Analysis: the System of Crisis Management Determinants Context==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3171/paper114.pdf
Human Potential Innovatization Analysis: the System of Crisis
Management Determinants Context
Liubov Halkiv1, Oleh Karyy1 , Ihor Kulyniak1 , Yaroslav Kis1 and Alexander Adamovsky1
1
Lviv Polytechnic National University, Stepan Bandera str, 12, Lviv, 79013, Ukraine
Abstract
Innovatization in the modern world plays the role of a social progress driver, a factor in
increasing the socio-economic security level and a stimulator of territorial social systems
crisis-free development. The key role in innovation processes intensification is played by:
education, knowledge, research activities. In this article, the authors form subsystems of
indicators that characterize the education, knowledge, research components at the country
level, carry out their integrated evaluation. Based on integrated assessments, the index of
human potential innovatization was built and countries were clustered according to its value
in 2018-2020. Contingency tables analysis proved that countries with a high human resource
innovatization index are more likely to show a chance to further increase this level. With the
help of correlation-regression analysis, it is proved that GDP per capita (the crisis state of the
economy indicator) significantly depends on the value of the human potential innovatization
index.
Keywords 1
indicators analysis system, human potential, innovation development, crisis management,
cluster analysis, regression analysis, contingency tables analysis, content analysis, time-series
analysis
1. Introduction
The issue of anthropocentrism in crisis management is not new. Thus, the founders of management
theory stated that the key factors in crisis prevention at the enterprise level should include: the
willpower of the leader, his leadership position, ability to quickly unite subordinates, stress resistance
in extreme situations, and others. The development of science has expanded the field of research in
crisis management but has not diminished the importance of the human factor. Today, in addition to
the micro (enterprise) level, this issue is also actively studied at the meso (sectoral or regional) level;
macro (state) level; megamacro (interstate formations) level; global (world) level. Its popularity is due
to the growing role of human potential in the social transformation factors system. At this time it is a
necessary task of empirical research implementation to develop crisis management science in terms of
assessing the qualitative human potential characteristics in the context of the impact on crisis-free
territorial social system development.
In a socially positive sense, crisis management considers a human in three ways: as the main
object of protection in a crisis; as a factor in preventing (warning) crises in the tactical and strategic
dimensions; as a direct generator, implementer, and controller of management decisions in crises. In a
socially negative sense, a human can be seen as a crisis phenomena activator.
The new realities are marked by the establishment of an innovation paradigm, the core elements of
which are: intelligence, knowledge, innovation. The world's leading economies have focused on
COLINS-2022: 6th International Conference on Computational Linguistics and Intelligent Systems, May 12–13, 2022, Gliwice, Poland
EMAIL: lubov.i.halkiv@lpnu.ua (L. Halkiv); oleh.i.karyi@lpnu.ua (O. Karyy); ihor.y.kulyniak@lpnu.ua (I. Kulyniak)
yaroslav.p.kis@lpnu.ua (Y. Kis); oleksandr.m.adamovskyi@lpnu.ua (A. Adamovsky)
ORCID: 0000-0001-5166-8674 (L. Halkiv); 0000-0002-1305-3043 (O. Karyy); 0000-0002-8135-4614 (I. Kulyniak); 0000-0003-3421-2725
(Y. Kis); 0000-0003-3515-4635 (A. Adamovsky)
© 2022 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
strategies to increase competitiveness through innovation. Achieving such a strategic goal largely
depends on the qualitative characteristics of human potential. The system of human potential
characteristics highlights subsystems that provide the opportunity to learn new things, accumulate
knowledge, generate and implement innovations. The quality of such subsystems, providing
competitive advantages to the country, helps to strengthen its economic security and, consequently,
reduces the risks of economic crisis.
In this paper, the authors focused on building and testing a methodological approach to analyzing
differences in the levels of innovatization of the country's human potential. Based on this, the authors
aim to prove that high levels of human potential innovatization prevent the crisis of the country's
economy.
2. Related Works
The crisis management system of determinants usually includes those that identify threats to the
enterprise’s bankruptcy. However, the issue of the human factor is increasingly being raised in crisis
management. Thus, the content analysis of the domestic researchers’ works in the crisis management
field for 2020-2021 revealed that in today's realities, the focus of scientists is also determinants
related to staff qualifications, stability, and security (L. Kartashova, M. Kirichenko, T. Sorochan [1]
S. Kapitanets, N. Varenia, O. Korolchuk, T. Kulinich, O. Kilnitska, H. Holovchak [2]), with threats to
the human capital of certain sectors of the economy (T. Charkina, D. Nechay, M. Mnatsakanyan [3]),
with the country's legislative initiatives to reduce population losses (A. Borisov, E. Litvinovsky [4]),
with the conditions of the coronavirus pandemic (T. Sergienko [5]), etc. In favor of human resources,
importance in crisis management testifies an annual volume of the array of publications increase in
the period between 2013-2021, the value of which was provided by information platforms Scopus and
GoogleAcademy for relevant search queries (Figure 1).
500
1000
y = 8.9913x2 - 52.547x + 168.12 y = 103.42x - 72.639
400 R² = 0.9666 800 R² = 0.9924
300 600
200 400
100 200
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
query “human AND potential AND crisis”, query “human AND crisis”,
English-speaking to Scopus Ukrainian-speaking to Scholar.Google
Figure 1: Dynamics of the array of publications volume in 2013-2021
Source: created by the authors according to [6; 7],
Human potential in a broad sense, as rightly noted by T. Stepura [8], should be understood as an
objectively determined, quantified integrated set of qualitative human qualities and associations of
people that are formed and can be activated under certain conditions of their environment (life and
work), and indicate the possible limits of their involvement in economic activity, consumption, self-
development, as well as for further reproduction of human components and their associations for
economic, social, spiritual progress, happy life, human development. Human potential, transforming
into human capital, contributes to the economic development of the country, strengthens its social
security [9; 10]. The authors of the National Report “Sustainable Human Development: Ensuring
Justice” [11] state that there are the qualitative characteristics of human potential that form the basis
for the adoption of a new “philosophy of economic growth” that maximizes social effects, increases
socio-cultural values. According to N. Rushchyshyn et al. [12], A. Lutsenko et al. [13] to strengthen
social security, public authorities must make significant efforts to establish effective mechanisms for
fiscal regulation and financial security. In turn, according to many researchers [14; 15; 16], the level
of financial and economic stability of the territorial social system provides opportunities for human
development, helps to reduce its migration losses. A positive aspect of the implementation of the
reform is the creation of incentives for territorial communities to use their social and economic
potential effectively [17].
In the XXI century, the financial and economic security of territorial social systems, their crisis-
free development is not possible without a solid foundation laid through effective innovation
processes in various spheres of public life. The bearers of human potential are the generators of
innovative ideas. The potential of the population of a certain territorial social system for innovation
depends on the effectiveness of the education system in general, including the higher education
system [18; 19]. There are many studies on the impact of innovation on the territorial social systems
crisis-free development [20; 21]. According to D. Moleiro [22] the social structure, along with the
territory, as a resource to be exploited, and the patterns of cooperation conceive impacts on regional
innovation through the new social relationships enhanced by social innovation, as a model of local
social innovation. The team of authors (O. Prokopenko et al. [23]) in this context operate with the
concept of innovation security. One of the main factors that led to the introduction of innovations in
the direction of social security is the the COVID-19 pandemic [24; 25].
Unlike other researchers who focus on the problems of studying human potential, crisis
management, innovation development, the authors of this study focus on combining these three
problems. They focus on analyzing the system of indicators, which reflects the human potential
innovation, building integrated assessments of the country’s innovation level, and justifying the
impact of this level on the crisis-free development of the economy.
3. Methods
In the course of the research, the authors used a set of scientific methods. In particular, to
substantiate the feasibility of studying human potential in the system of determinants of crisis
management, the authors used the methods of content analysis and bibliographic analysis. Their
application allowed the authors to determine the volume of the array of publications presented on the
information platforms Scopus and GoogleAcademy on the search queries “human AND potential
AND crisis” and “human AND crisis”, respectively. This volume of publications was determined
annually in the period from 2013 to 2021. The authors applied the dynamics modeling method to the
obtained time series. The quality of the approximation of the empirical data dynamics model was
evaluated by the value of the coefficient of determination (R2). To calculate R2, the authors used the
method based on the trend line in a correlation field built on MS Excel sheet.
For the generalized assessment of human potential innovatization state in some countries, the
method of integrated assessment was used, which provided for the procedure of components of the
system of indicators standardization and averaging.
To assess the country's human potential level of innovation in the context of crisis management,
we have built a methodological approach. The first stage involves an integrated assessment of the
human potential innovation state in the form of an index. This index (IIHP) is based on the values of
the system of indicators that form three subsystems (components): 1 – education (EC), 2 – knowledge
(KC), 3 – research (RC).
EC covers 2 components:
education (х1),
higher education (х2).
KC covers 4 components:
results of knowledge and technologies (х3),
intangible assets (х4),
field of knowledge workers (х5),
absorption of knowledge (х6).
RC covers 3 components:
cooperation between the university and the field of R&D (х7),
information and communication technologies (х8);
research and development (х9).
The choice of components is determined by the availability of statistical information for 2018-
2020, which was developed in the course of this study on the example of 26 countries: Switzerland
(C-1); Sweden (C-2); USA (C-3); United Kingdom (C-4); Republic of Korea (C-5); Netherlands (C-
6); Finland (C-7); Singapore (C-8); Germany (C-9); France (C-10); Japan (C-11); China (P-12);
Brazil (C-13); Thailand (C-14); India (C-15); Bulgaria (C-16); Poland (C-17); Estonia (C-18) );
Georgia (C-19); Lithuania (C-20); Moldova (C-21); Ukraine (C-22); Russia (C-23); Uganda (C-24);
Zimbabwe (C-25) Bangladesh (C-26).
The direction of influence on the human potential innovatization of all components is stimulating.
That is, the greater is each component of the system of indicators numerical value, the higher the level
of human potential innovation.
Normalized values of indicators are calculated by the following formula:
, (1)
where NOCit – normalized level for the country with code C component indexed by i in the year t;
КCit – input numerical value for the country with the code C component indexed by i in the year t;
min(К t) – minimum value of the set of countries component indexed by i in the year t;
max (К t) – minimum value of the set of countries component indexed by i in the year t.
For the generalized (integral) assessment of IIHP indicators subsystems the method of averaging
with the use of an arithmetic formula is applied:
(2)
where Kj – the value of the j-th component for indicators subsystem;
n – number of components.
Correlation analysis was applied to the obtained integrated estimates, which was implemented
using the MS Excel “Data analysis” procedure, and the distribution was checked according was
checked by the Shapiro-Wilk test of normality. To distinguish groups of countries by the level of
human potential innovatization, the authors used the method of cluster analysis, which was
implemented using the StatisticaTM software.
To substantiate the chances of increasing the level of human potential innovatization with high-
quality human potential, the method of four-cell contingency tables analysis was used, which
involved the calculation of quadratic contingency (χ2). The validity of the relationship between the
level of human potential innovatization and the quality of human potential is based on Crammer's V
test, and the substantiation of the level of the materiality of the conclusions is based on the exact value
of the (bilateral) Fisher's exact test.
The method of regression analysis was used to assess the dependence of the gross domestic
product of the country on the level of human potential innovatization. The parameters of the
regression models were determined using the procedure “Data Analysis” MS Excel. The authors used
tabular and graphical methods to compactly present and visualize the study data.
4. Results and Discussion
Understanding the conditions for activating the potential human development requires the
processing of scientific approaches to understanding its structural composition. As is known,
subpotentials (human potential components) are highlighted in the aggregate territorial social system
human potential. The individual subpotential exists relatively independently. However, being under
the influence of interaction with other subpotentials, as well as under the external environment
influence of the total territorial social system human potential, the individual subpotential may
change.
Even though the leaders of the social wing of potentialism theories have built a solid knowledge
foundation in the field of human potential component structure, it is important to realize that the
essential characteristics of its components remain ambiguous. This ambiguity is due not only to
differences in the views of representatives of different scientific schools on the list of human potential
components. It should be emphasized that different works of one scientific school supporters may
vary approaches to the separation of human potential components.The main reason for the meaningful
understanding of human potential structural composition is the ambiguity of human potential сoncept
interpretation: Despite the repeated use of the phrase “human potential” in scientific and journalistic
literature, today there is no single interpretation of this economic and social category [26].
In addition, the progress of scientific thought contributes to the diversification of views on the list
of human potential components. Confirmation of this progress is the upward dynamics of scientific
publications. Thus, the Scopus web platform search engine [6] on the query "human AND potential"
on January 30, 2022, issued more than 5 million documents, including in recent years: 2013 – 89.3
thousand units; 2014 – 97.5 thousand units; 2015 – 104.8 thousand units; 2016 – 111.3 thousand
units; 2017 – 118.5 thousand units; 2018 – 127.0 thousand units; 2019 – 138.7 thousand units; 2020 –
159.4 thousand units, 2021 – 173.3 thousand units.
In this study, we will focus on changes in human potential, which is referred to as innovatization.
Human potential innovatization should be understood as the process of its components transformation
into those that can provide production, accumulation, translation, multiplication of innovations. This
process at the macro level requires the state policy and its national security main directions
coordination. It is a question of the external and internal interests of the country’s vectors changing to
transform innovation into a key basis of social life.
To build integrated estimates, the procedure of the system of indicators components normalizing
was used. The normalized values of indicators for 2020, calculated according to formula (1) for the
set of researched countries, are given in Table 1. These numerical values vary from 0 (minimum level
of the indicator for the country from their set) to 1 (maximum level of the indicator for the country
from their set).
Table 1
Normalized values of the system of indicators for the researched set of countries in 2020
С- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
х1 0.80 1 0.74 0.79 0.81 0.84 0.97 0.72 0.78 0.84 0.68 0.94 0.69
х2 0.68 0.61 0.52 0.71 0.71 0.56 0.73 1 0.79 0.61 0.17 0.28 0.27
х3 1 0.90 0.84 0.80 0.70 0.80 0.81 0.80 0.75 0.63 0.65 0.81 0.23
х4 0.81 0.70 0.60 0.70 0.81 0.60 0.45 0.43 0.71 0.74 0.59 1 0.24
х5 0.94 0.98 0.88 0.72 1 0.72 0.83 0.86 0.80 0.74 0.80 1 0.51
х6 0.69 0.67 0.80 0.51 0.73 1 0.54 0.97 0.51 0.61 0.81 0.77 0.46
х7 1 0.87 0.97 0.83 0.61 0.94 0.97 0.91 0.87 0.63 0.71 0.59 0.27
х8 0.88 0.93 0.95 1 1 0.96 0.91 0.99 0.92 0.96 0.95 0.72 0.74
х9 0.87 0.84 0.88 0.77 1 0.74 0.75 0.80 0.83 0.73 0.85 0.67 0.39
С- 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
х1 0.50 0.37 0.60 0.77 0.78 0.65 0.69 0.69 0.82 0.73 0 0.49 0.13
х2 0.45 0.40 0.48 0.49 0.66 0.56 0.57 0.38 0.59 0.69 0.16 0.29 0
х3 0.14 0.44 0.44 0.40 0.50 0.16 0.30 0.29 0.45 0.29 0 0.04 0.05
х4 0.29 0.26 0.53 0.25 0.46 0.22 0.26 0.49 0.52 0.28 0.04 0 0.06
х5 0.38 0.21 0.47 0.49 0.60 0.27 0.46 0.28 0.41 0.49 0 0.02 0.01
х6 0.63 0.38 0.32 0.45 0.32 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.28 0.45 0 0.07 0.07
х7 0.54 0.42 0.31 0.21 0.42 0.11 0.53 0.05 0.37 0.40 0.32 0.05 0
х8 0.48 0.52 0.72 0.80 0.88 0.54 0.74 0.61 0.44 0.80 0.16 0 0.36
х9 0.19 0.37 0.13 0.37 0.27 0.06 0.21 0.03 0.23 0.45 0.01 0 0.04
Source: calculated by the authors
Generalized assessment for indicators, subsystems and values of IIHP for 2018-2020 for the set of
researched countries are given in Table 2.
Table 2
Integral assessments of indicators, subsystems and values of IIHP in 2018-2020
С- EC KC RC IIHP
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
1 0.672 0.716 0.741 0.812 0.855 0.858 0.868 0.909 0.915 0.821 0.864 0.870
2 0.694 0.759 0.803 0.724 0.789 0.813 0.850 0.878 0.880 0.776 0.825 0.841
3 0.455 0.571 0.628 0.632 0.725 0.781 0.915 0.935 0.930 0.738 0.801 0.830
4 0.692 0.728 0.749 0.593 0.657 0.681 0.886 0.873 0.867 0.734 0.761 0.771
5 0.650 0.736 0.757 0.678 0.723 0.809 0.850 0.877 0.868 0.751 0.793 0.830
6 0.668 0.612 0.700 0.797 0.770 0.779 0.870 0.864 0.879 0.815 0.794 0.815
7 0.768 0.821 0.849 0.667 0.707 0.658 0.868 0.853 0.873 0.767 0.784 0.775
8 0.878 0.838 0.859 0.742 0.751 0.763 0.914 0.897 0.899 0.834 0.826 0.834
9 0.616 0.773 0.783 0.656 0.675 0.693 0.844 0.869 0.870 0.735 0.772 0.782
10 0.637 0.675 0.729 0.570 0.637 0.679 0.720 0.752 0.771 0.644 0.692 0.726
11 0.507 0.449 0.427 0.603 0.652 0.715 0.826 0.849 0.834 0.691 0.717 0.736
12 0.548 0.557 0.611 0.815 0.857 0.895 0.610 0.661 0.657 0.694 0.736 0.758
13 0.387 0.441 0.477 0.303 0.323 0.360 0.431 0.522 0.465 0.369 0.424 0.420
14 0.381 0.455 0.475 0.305 0.331 0.359 0.380 0.447 0.404 0.346 0.396 0.392
15 0.299 0.342 0.385 0.205 0.253 0.320 0.441 0.525 0.435 0.320 0.384 0.378
16 0.454 0.488 0.540 0.416 0.391 0.440 0.316 0.405 0.389 0.376 0.408 0.428
17 0.556 0.601 0.631 0.364 0.394 0.398 0.366 0.486 0.460 0.386 0.458 0.452
18 0.621 0.675 0.720 0.481 0.505 0.469 0.501 0.536 0.521 0.505 0.538 0.520
19 0.497 0.540 0.606 0.179 0.246 0.201 0.191 0.286 0.238 0.220 0.296 0.262
20 0.522 0.571 0.630 0.310 0.344 0.295 0.472 0.491 0.493 0.406 0.434 0.420
21 0.523 0.566 0.536 0.385 0.312 0.293 0.209 0.233 0.229 0.322 0.305 0.291
22 0.609 0.619 0.703 0.425 0.400 0.412 0.287 0.320 0.349 0.384 0.389 0.416
23 0.646 0.712 0.710 0.375 0.390 0.378 0.496 0.577 0.549 0.459 0.509 0.491
24 0.126 0.125 0.079 0.044 0.051 0.010 0.154 0.198 0.164 0.102 0.124 0.086
25 0.474 0.520 0.389 0.046 0.047 0.033 0.000 0.060 0.017 0.073 0.105 0.065
26 0.049 0.000 0.067 0.030 0.046 0.047 0.072 0.195 0.133 0.051 0.107 0.087
Source: calculated by the authors
The correlation coefficient was used as a measure of the three IIHP subsystems indicators integral
assessment level harmonization. Its calculation was performed with the help of the procedure "Data
Analysis" MS Excel, and numerical values are presented in Table 3. The maximum correlation is
observed between the subsystems of the indicators of the KC↔RC. The minimum value of the
correlation coefficient (0.646) was obtained in 2019 for the subsystems of EC↔RC indicators. The
results of correlation analysis indicate the presence of a close relationship between the components of
IIHP and the harmonization of integral assessments of indicator subsystems (EC, KC, RC).
Table 3
Correlation coefficients between subsystems of IIHP indicators
EC KC RC
Subsystem
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
EC 1 1 1 0.766 0.722 0.727 0.680 0.646 0.718
KC 0.766 0.722 0.727 1 1 1 0.895 0.921 0.937
RC 0.680 0.646 0.718 0.895 0.921 0.937 1 1 1
Source: calculated by the authors
Graphical representations (Figure 2) allow us to think about the possible harmonization of integral
assessment values of the three IIHP indicators subsystems: education, knowledge, research.
education (EC) knowledge (KC)
research (RC)
Figure 2: Integral component assessment IIHP in 2018, 2019, 2020
Source: compiled by the authors
On the one hand, the dense connection between the IIHP components serves as a basis for IIHP
construction by averaging its components by formula (1). The obtained averaging results are
presented in Table 4 and are shown in Figure 3. On the other hand, such a close relationship serves as
a warning for the use in the regression equation of these indicator subsystems as factor variables due
to their multicollinearity.
3D Scatterplot of IІЛП20 against ІІЛП18 and IIЛ19
Spreadsheet17-12-2021 10v*26c
1,0
0,9
0,8
0,7
0 ,9
0,6
0 ,8
IІЛП20
0,5 0 ,7
0 ,6
0,4
ІІЛП18
0 ,5
0,3 0 ,4
0,2 0 ,3
0 ,2
0,1
0 ,1
0 ,0
0 ,9 0 ,8 0 ,7 0 ,6 0 ,5 0 ,4 0 ,3 0 ,2 0 ,1 0 ,0
IIЛ 1 9
two-dimensional three-dimensional
Figure 3: IIHP visualization in 2018, 2019, 2020
Source: compiled by the authors
.
Before performing a regression analysis that would describe the relationship between the level of
human innovatization and the state of the economy, the distribution of IIHP was checked by the
Shapiro-Wilk test of normality. The chosen criterion is more informative for small sample sizes in
comparison with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the Lilliefors test. The materiality level of the
Shapiro-Wilk test obtained using the StatisticaTM software (р(2018)=0.021; р(2019)=0.013; р(2020)=0.008)
was insufficient (p <0.05) to accept the hypothesis about the normality of the distribution (Figure 4).
Histogram: ІІЛП18 Histogram: IIЛ19
Shapiro-Wilk W=,90607, p=,02145 Shapiro-Wilk W=,89669, p=,01321
Expected Normal Expected Normal
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
No. of obs.
No. of obs.
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
-0,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9
X <= Category Boundary X <= Category Boundary
Figure 4: Verification of IIHP distributions for normality according to the Shapiro-Wilk test in 2018,
2019, 2020
Source: compiled by the authors
The second stage envisages the clustering of countries using the StatisticaTM software. Based on
the analysis of IIHP three-dimensional graphical representation (Figure 3) and the research of its
dendrogram, the decision was made to divide the set of countries into three clusters: H – high level of
development, A – the average level of development, L – low level of development.
The results of cluster analysis are presented in Table 4.
Table 4
Countries clustering by IIHP and its rate of change
United Kingdom
С_3 United States
Netherlands
С_1 Switzerland
С_26 Bangladesh
С_25 Zimbabwe
Singapore
С_20 Lithuania
С_9 Germany
С_21 Moldova
С_14 Thailand
С_16 Bulgaria
С_2 Sweden
С_22 Ukraine
С_19 Georgia
С_24 Uganda
Finland
С_18 Estonia
С_17 Poland
С_1 France
С_23 Russia
Korea
С_11 Japan
С_12 China
С_13 Brazil
С_15 India
С_4
С_5
С_6
С_7
С_8
2020 2019 2018
H H H H H H H H H H H H A A A A A A L A A A A L L L
H H H H H H H H H H H H A A A A A A A A A A A L L L
H H H H H H H H H H H H A A A A A A A A A A A L L L
Rate of change in 2020,%
-15.7
-10.5
2018
12.5
10.4
12.7
13.7
13.1
18.1
14.0
17.0
19.4
-9.5
6.0
8.4
5.0
0.0
0.9
0.0
6.4
6.4
9.2
3.0
3.6
8.4
7.0
7.6
-11.4
-30,7
-38,0
-18,4
2019
-1.3
-1.1
-1.1
-1.4
-1.4
-3.3
-3.3
-4.5
-3.5
0.8
1.9
3.6
1.4
4.6
2.6
1.0
1.2
4.8
2.6
2.9
5.0
7.0
1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Д
Source: calculated by the authors
Table 4 data shows that during the period 2018-2020 the value of IIHP in the countries of cluster
H increased. Its slight decrease over the last year in Finland does not serve as an indicator of the
crisis, as this country is consistently in the group of leaders. On the other hand, the negative rate of
change in IIHP in the L-cluster countries is a marker of the human innovatization problem.
To substantiate the conclusion that countries with a high level of IIHP tend to further increase it,
the method of four-cell contingency tables analysis was used. Previously, an additional indicator (P)
was introduced, which takes 1, if in 2020 compared to 2018 and 2019, the rate of IIHP change took a
positive value. Otherwise, P = 0 (Table 4).
Data from the analysis of the four-cell table formed based on grouping countries by the value of
IIHP in 2020 (<0.5 and >=0.5) and the value of P (0 and 1) are given in Table 5 Statistical
characteristics testify that between IIHP and P detects a statistically significant relationship. Thus, the
chances of IIHP growth are many times higher in countries with high innovation potential.
Table 5
Analysis of the distribution of countries by IIHP and P
P; IIHP 2020 P; IIHP 2020
χ2 Cramer’s V Fisher's exact test
<0.5 >=0.5
0 1 0 1
15.4 0.772 0.0001
6 6 2 12
Source: calculated by the authors
At the third stage, the impact of human resource innovation analysis on the economic crisis was
carried out. The value of GDP per capita in USD was chosen as an effective feature for the regression
analysis at purchasing power parity (GDPpp). The results of regression analysis are presented in
Figure 5.
a) 2018 b) 2019
c) 2020
Figure 5: Models of GDPpp dependence on IIHP
Source: calculated by the authors
The results of modeling show that there is a close and direct relationship between the state of the
country's economy and the level of human innovatization. Thus, human potential innovatization
should be considered as a factor in preventing the crisis of the economy.
5. Conclusions
The human potential issue is gaining popularity in the research of the scientific field – crisis
management representatives. In the framework of this area, the main focus is on the socially positive
role of humans (the object of protection in a crisis; crisis prevention factor; crisis manager). In
modern conditions, crisis-free development of countries is not possible without effective innovation
of their businesses. The engine of human potential is the bearer of innovative change.
Despite the difference in approaches of scientists to the component structure of human potential, in
its structure, we can identify components that can promote innovative development: education;
knowledge; research. In this publication, the authors presented scientific results related to the
construction and approbation of a methodological approach to analyzing differences in the levels of
human potential innovatization of in countries. In an empirical analysis of the 9 components of the
three human potential subsystems (education; knowledge; research) according to 26 countries’ data,
the authors proved that there is a direct and tight connection between the integrated assessments of
these components. The authors also scientifically substantiate that the generalized values of these
components at the country level in the form of the human resource innovatization index are inversely
correlated with the crisis in the economy.
Based on the results of regression analysis revealed that countries with a high level of human
potential innovatization are not only much more likely to increase the value of GDP per capita in
USD, in terms of purchasing power parity. In addition, countries with a high level of human potential
innovatization are more likely to show a chance to further increase innovative human assets.
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