=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-3188/short3
|storemode=property
|title=Economic Security Parameters in the Conditions of Increasing Information Risks and Threats (short paper)
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3188/short3.pdf
|volume=Vol-3188
|authors=Anatolii Sunduk,Yuliia Zhukova,Pavlo Shvets,Valeriia Loiko
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/cpits/SundukZSL21
}}
==Economic Security Parameters in the Conditions of Increasing Information Risks and Threats (short paper)==
Economic Security Parameters in the Conditions of Increasing
Information Risks and Threats
Anatolii Sunduk1, Yuliia Zhukova2, Pavlo Shvets3, and Valeriia Loiko2
1
Institute of Economics of Nature Management and Sustainable Development of the National Academy of Sciences of
Ukraine, 60 Taras Shevchenko ave., 02000, Kyiv, Ukraine
2
Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University, 18/2 Bulvarno-Kudriavska str., 04053, Kyiv, Ukraine
3
Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 60 Taras
Shevchenko ave., 02000, Kyiv, Ukraine
Abstract
The article examines the issues of economic security in the event of risks and threats emerging in the
information sphere. The assessment of the level of economic security according to the system of
indicators of economic security of the сountry and its regions is carried out. Their individual
parameters are investigated. As the analysis shows, the current state of economic security of the
country and its regions is not satisfactory. The peculiarities of guaranteeing economic security for the
regions are studied. A system of measures to improve the level of economic security is formed.
Keywords1
Economic security, risk, threat.
1. Introduction
In modern conditions, the economic landscape is formed by different processes that are localized within
different poles of influence and pursue opposing interests. The global trend is the spread and buildup of post-
industrial formations, new tendencies in the development of information economy, its integration into the vast
majority of areas of development. With this in mind, the dissemination of information technology occupies an
important place in UN reports [1].
Information processes significantly influence and shape the parameters of a country’s economy. Numerous
examples of increasing the weight of information products and services in the structure of GDP, the gradual
movement of the economy to the information environment have become commonplace. Under favorable
conditions these processes can strengthen the economic system, otherwise—to undermine it [2]
An important concept associated with the sustainability of a state's economy is economic security. Like the
concept of economics, economic security is also in the zone of influence of the information sphere and is
adjusted by it. Economic security is the foundation of a cost-effective state as a whole [3].
What is the concept of economic security? This is a state of providing the necessary resources at a level that
guarantees the development and growth of the economy, protection of the social sphere while maximizing the
use of a country`s own potential in defending economic interests from the system of threats of external and
internal origin. The main way to maintain the proper state of security is the formation of a holistic systemic
dynamics—the processes of maximizing macroeconomic indicators of most components of economic security.
2. Source Review
The issue of economic security is the subject of diverse research. Some publications touch upon the
conceptual foundations of a country`s security [4]. A significant number of authors study the economic
security of the country in combination with environmental and energy safety. Thus, the authors [5], for
example, analyze the economic and energy strategy, predict the consequences of Brexit for the EU economy
and its external and internal economic security. The author of [6] examines China’s energy and economic
security and the factors that affect it.
CPITS-II-2021: Cybersecurity Providing in Information and Telecommunication Systems, October 26, 2021, Kyiv, Ukraine
EMAIL: 28326@ukr.net (A.Sunduk); y.zhukova@kubg.edu.ua (Y. Zhukova); p.shvets@kubg.edu.ua (P. Shvets); v.loyko@kubg.edu.ua (V. Loiko)
ORCID: 0000-0002-3749-4257 (A.Sunduk); 0000-0001-6312-9600 (Y. Zhukova); 0000-0001-8676-472X (P. Shvets); 0000-0003-3248-1585 (V. Loiko)
©️ 2022 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
221
A number of articles are devoted to methods of assessing the level of economic security of the country. The
authors [7] proposed an integrated index of environmental, energy and economic security. Much attention is
paid to the development of economic security indices in countries with economies in transition, such as Russia
and Ukraine. At the same time, developed countries are more focused on energy and environmental security. In
particular, the [8] is devoted to the current state of economic security of the regions of Russia on the basis of
the index approach. In [9] the concept of the integrated index of economic security of Ukraine in the conditions
of СOVID-19 on the basis of the innovative concept is stated. Economic, demographic, energy, foreign
economic, food, environmental and epidemiological indices are integrated. For the time being, no practical
calculations are given. The authors [10] propose a method for determining the threshold values of key
indicators of economic security of the country.
The article [11] is devoted to the integrated assessment of the level of economic security of Ukraine using
two groups of indices: incentives and anti-incentives. The authors [12] analyze the crisis phenomena in the
Russian economy, using rapid indices of economic security—12 indicators united into four groups. The
research [13] is dedicated to the financial and economic security of Donetsk region using economic and social
indicators.
A significant attention is paid to the comparison of indices of economic security and indices of sustainable
development of the economy of Ukraine [14]. Of interest is the study, the results of which are presented in
[15]. It is devoted to assessing the economic security of the EU and Ukraine and its impact on the sustainability
of economic development. The novelty of the proposed approach is due to the fact that the assessment of the
level of economic security is based on four components: economic, political, social and environmental, which
are not domestic indicators, but are the recognized international indices: the Index of Globalization, the Fragile
States Index, the Legatum Prosperity Index, the Global Competitiveness Index and the Environmental
Performance Index. This approach is seen as original, universal and objective. At the same time, it is debatable,
given the analysis of the stability of economic growth in [16], according to which the economy of Ukraine
demonstrates its lowest level among European countries. However, the Index of Economic Instability shows no
correlation with the above indices.
Numerous publications assess external and internal factors that affect the level of economic security of the
country or region: globalization [17], the progress of European integration for Ukraine [18], corruption [19],
mineral resources [20], intellectual potential [21], industrial specialization [22]. In the article of the journal
[23] the authors substantiated the methodological basis and developed a complex for diagnosing the state of
economic security of the university. The method presented by the authors provides an opportunity to quantify
the integrated indicator of the level of economic security of the university on the basis of individual indicators,
which is then used for management decisions.
An important terminological issue is the name of the indicator that would characterize the level of
economic security of the country. Many authors who proposed this indicator called it the “index of economic
security." Instead, this is the name of the "integrated indicator of instability of available household resources,
which takes into account fluctuations in income, medical expenditure and financial well-being,” which is
widely known in international reporting, including the International Labor Organization [24]. The index
characterizes the economic security of citizens, the degree of their protection from economic losses [25].
Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish between the above-described index of economic security and the index
that reflects the level of economic security of a country or its region.
3. Goals and Methodology
Given the relevance of these issues, the objectives of the study are to develop methodological frameworks
and establish quantitative parameters for assessing the level of economic security of a country or region, which
will contribute to a more balanced policy in this area.
The method of estimation of the index (coefficient) of economic security of the country by application of
procedure of standardization of indicators during a specific year (A. Stepanenko and M. Gerasimov) is offered.
According to this procedure, it is possible to identify the main stages:
1. Establishing the share of regions in relation to the level of the country according to the system of
indicators. The weight of the region is formed taking into account its potential.
2. Standardization (rationing) of indicators that characterize the features of economic security. Due to the
fact that the values of the indicators used for the calculation differ in nature and weight, it is important to form
a comparable information plane, which serves as a starting point for further calculations. There are different
approaches to this procedure.
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3. Calculation of integrated values for regions, which are the weighted average values of standardized
indicators. Calculated by formula (1):
𝑍̃𝑖 = ∑𝑛𝑗=1 𝛼𝑖𝑗 𝑍𝑖𝑗 , (1)
where Zij is the value of the i-th indicator in the jth region;
αij is the value of the weighting factor of the ith indicator in the jth region.
Weights are introduced to take into account conditions in different regions, including the level of economic
development, competitiveness, sales, risks. For an approximate estimate or when it does not seem possible to
quantify these factors, the average values are used:
αij = 1/n (2)
4. Standardization of security factors of regions.
For the convenience of assessment, it is proposed to normalize the indicator of economic security
depending on the direction of the study. The rationing coefficient can be the security coefficient of the most
successful region, its average value in countries with identical conditions, the base period of development (for
example, before the pandemic), and so on. This article presents the results obtained by standardizing the largest
coefficient of the region:
𝑍̃𝑖
𝑌𝑖 = , 𝑖 = ̅̅̅̅̅̅
1, 𝑚, (3)
𝑍𝑚𝑎𝑥
where Yi is coefficient of economic security of the region.
The coefficient Y of economic security of the country as a whole is calculated as the ratio of the weighted
average value of the country by region to such an indicator for countries with similar conditions (Eastern
European, post-Soviet). Weights are introduced to take into account conditions in different regions, including
the level of economic development, competitiveness, sales, risks. For an approximate estimate or when it does
not seem possible to quantify these factors, average values (αij = 1/n) are used.
The coefficient of economic security is formed into account the system of regional indicators (n1–n8):
n1 is gross regional product.
n2 is revenues of the regional budget (excluding transfers).
n3 is budget expenditures of the region (including transfers).
n4 is the amount of actual revenues from taxes and fees (mandatory payments) to the regional budget and to
state trust funds.
n5 is capital investments in the region.
n6 is foreign direct investment in the region.
n7 is the volume of regional exports of goods.
n8 is the cost of research in the region.
According to the methodology, the calculation of coefficients involves a number of stages. After formation
of initial tables (data are taken from [26]) places of regions on each indicator among other regions of the state
are investigated (Table 1). The calculations were performed in a Microsoft Excel 2010 spreadsheet, developed
by Microsoft. The maximum value (1.0) is allocated to the country. Variations in the weight of indicators are
typical for regions.
Table 1
Weights of regions in relation to the level of the state according to the system of indicators (fragment)
Region n1 n2 n3 n4 n5 n6 n7 n8
Ukraine as a whole 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Vinnytsia 0.0313 0.0354 0.0402 0.0343 0.0305 0.0036 0.0302 0.0029
Volyn 0.0170 0.0190 0.0264 0.0182 0.0150 0.0050 0.0152 0.0011
Dnepropetrovsk 0.1038 0.1053 0.0901 0.1072 0.1042 0.0682 0.1634 0.1210
Donetsk 0.0540 0.0492 0.0493 0.0482 0.0466 0.1064 0.1025 0.0010
Zhytomyr 0.0217 0.0251 0.0311 0.0250 0.0151 0.0214 0.0140 0.0018
Transcarpathian 0.0147 0.0194 0.0278 0.0190 0.0130 0.0052 0.0351 0.0045
Zaporozhye 0.0489 0.0475 0.0455 0.0488 0.0272 0.0055 0.0715 0.0827
Ivano-Frankiv 0.0220 0.0224 0.0331 0.0221 0.0162 0.0058 0.0184 0.0029
Kyiv 0.0557 0.0556 0.0517 0.0564 0.0704 0.0494 0.0393 0.0245
Kirovograd 0.0181 0.0214 0.0240 0.0222 0.0124 0.0040 0.0110 0.0060
Source: own evaluation.
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Table 1 shows that among the studied regions, high weights gravitate to Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv regions.
The situation is similar for capital investments. A high position of foreign investment is recorded in Donetsk
region. Among the studied regions, the maximum values tend to the city of Kyiv. Such weights form the basis
for the manifestation of the position of the region for further stages of the calculation.
An important step is the standardization of indicators in order to bring their quantitative parameters to a
single statistical base, which is associated with the number of regions (Table 2). Basically, given the data in
Table 1, the standardization is significantly correlated with the location of the region by weight. After
rationing, the maximum values for each indicator of economic security are determined. As the assessment
shows, the highest level is fixed for the indicator “research costs.”
Table 2
Standardization of economic security indicators (fragment)
Region n1 n2 n3 n4 n5 n6 n7 n8
Ukraine as a whole 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Vinnitsa 0.7829 0.8847 1.0043 0.8571 0.7615 0.0912 0.7559 0.0731
Volyn 0.4244 0.4752 0.6607 0.4550 0.3753 0.1258 0.3808 0.0275
Dnipropetrovsk 2.5941 2.6327 2.2527 2.6795 2.6044 1.7046 4.0846 3.0252
Donetsk 1.3499 1.2296 1.2324 1.2041 1.1655 2.6607 2.5628 0.0242
Zhytomyr 0.5414 0.6272 0.7763 0.6248 0.3776 0.5347 0.3496 0.0457
Transcarpathian 0.3682 0.4858 0.6956 0.4744 0.3240 0.1289 0.8775 0.1119
Zaporozhye 1.2222 1.1868 1.1367 1.2197 0.6796 0.1384 1.7863 2.0686
Ivano-Frankiv 0.5508 0.5593 0.8268 0.5531 0.4058 0.1447 0.4607 0.0714
Kyiv 1.3913 1.3896 1.2923 1.4102 1.7588 1.2360 0.9817 0.6123
Kirovograd 0.4524 0.5346 0.5996 0.5552 0.3102 0.1006 0.2756 0.1502
The upper pole 5.8492 3.9600 2.5461 3.9225 8.6531 11.1964 5.4207 11.5034
Source: own evaluation.
4. Empirical Results and Discussion
For the period 2010-2018 there was an increase in the main indicators of the economic sector of the country
and regions. That was due to the growth of the gross surplus value (by 4.3 times), the income of the
consolidated and local budgets (by 3,7 and 3,5 times respectively), the amount of actual revenues from taxes
and fees (mandatory payments) to budgets and to state trust funds (more than by 3.7 times), capital investments
(by 5.6 times) and other indicators. These indicators to a great extent form the coefficients of economic
security of the state and regions.
The calculations of economic security ratios is carried out by formulas 3 and 4. They showed that in the
national dimension the coefficient of economic security in 2018 was 0.1508 (Table 3). Given this, the level of
economic security of the state and regions is not satisfactory. Many of these parameters show negative
phenomena and trends that reflect the general state of the economy.
The regions are significantly differentiated in terms of economic security. Only 8 regions exceed the
national level: Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhie, Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Kharkiv and the city of Kyiv. The
indicators of other regions are lower.
Regarding other spatial features of the localization of economic security indicators, it is possible to identify
a number of positions. In particular, the levels of indicators of regions relative to the level of the state are
important. Only if the region has significant values of economic security, there is a possibility of such an
assessment (Table 4). The evaluation of economic security ratios also reveals significant regional variations.
The scope of variation demonstrates the spatial features of the formation for indicators.
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Table 3
Integral values and coefficients of economic security of the state and regions, 2018
Region Integral values Coefficient of economic security СESR-CESS
of the state (CESS)
Ukraine — 0.1508 —
Vinnitsa 0.6513 0.0982 –0.0526
Volyn 0.3656 0.0551 –0.0957
Dnipropetrovsk 2.6972 0.4067 +0.2560
Donetsk 1.4286 0.2154 +0.0646
Zhytomyr 0.4847 0.0731 –0.0777
Transcarpathian 0.4333 0.0653 –0.0854
Zaporozhye 1.1798 0.1779 +0.0271
Ivano-Frankiv 0.4466 0.0673 –0.0835
Kyiv 1.2590 0.1899 +0.0391
Kirovograd 0.3723 0.0561 –0.0947
Luhansk 0.3239 0.0488 –0.1020
Lviv 1.1688 0.1763 +0.0254
Mykolayiv 0.6326 0.0954 –0.0554
Odessa 1.0868 0.1639 +0.0131
Poltava 0.9896 0.1492 –0.0016
Rivne 0.4049 0.0611 –0.0897
Sumy 0.4595 0.0693 –0.0815
Ternopil 0.3192 0.0481 –0.1027
Kharkiv 1.6574 0.2499 +0.0991
Kherson 0.3957 0.0597 –0.0911
Khmelnytsky 0.4438 0.0669 –0.0839
Cherkasy 0.5373 0.0810 –0.0698
Chernivtsi 0.2282 0.0344 –0.1164
Chernihiv 0.4259 0.0642 –0.0865
The city of Kyiv 6.6314 1.0000 +0.8492
Source: own evaluation.
Table 4.
Spatial features of coefficients of economic security of regions (CESR)
Feature Parameter Influence on economic
security
1 Deviation of the coefficient Only 8 regions exceed the national level: The possibilities of CESR's
of economic security of the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kyiv, positioning at the state level
region from the state level Lviv, Odesa, Kharkiv and the city of Kyiv need to be adjusted.
2 Localization of indicators of Coefficient of economic security – 0,1508. Low similarity of indicators
regions relative to the level Similar indicators are recorded only for of regions in relation to the
of the state certain regions (in particular, Zaporizhie and level of the state.
Kyiv regions).
3 Maximum–minimum value The city of Kyiv (1.0000) - Chernivtsi region Significant regional
(0.0344). The ratio between the coefficients variations in the level of
is about 29 times. economic security.
4 The extent of variation CESR of Dnipropetrovck region (0,4067) – This reveals the features of
between the coefficients of Chernivtsi region (0,0344). The extent of the formation of regional
economic security of the variation = 0,3723. indicators of economic
regions security.
Source: own evaluation.
225
The high values of security ratios can be explained by the significant level of concentration of economic
potential within the regions. In particular, the maximum value is inherent in the capital - an important
economic center of the state, which accumulates the potential for economic development. Significant financial
indicators, investment flows gravitate to the capital. To some extent, this is a positive process, as such factors
contribute to the development of the region's economy. On the other hand, such concentrations determine the
formation of asymmetries of regional development (Fig. 1, based on the data in Table 3).
Figure 1: Coefficient of economic security of the regions of Ukraine (2018)
Source: own evaluation
High indicators of economic security of Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions are explained
by strong industrial potential and more favorable conditions for investments in comparison with other regions.
Listed in Fig. 1 map-scheme shows that in most parts of Ukraine such conditions need radical improvement.
Charts of cost of research (Fig. 1) show a certain correlation with the level of economic security.
The opposite level of economic security is demonstrated mainly by the southern and western regions. At the
same time, these regions have important preconditions for improving the development of economic systems.
Drivers of their growth can be the launch of new business projects in these areas and processes that are specific
to these regions. The issue of strengthening cross-border cooperation (centers, business hubs) is also possible -
it is a way to accelerate the local economic development for regions bordering other countries. Niche projects
have prospects for development. The formation of platforms for the interaction of natural resources and the
economy is possible. What are these platforms?
A platform is a specific location (real or virtual) within which the interaction of natural resources and the
economy takes place in order to realize common interests. A characteristic feature is that an ecosystem is
formed near the platforms. For the sphere of natural resources, the platform is characterized by other features
and peculiarities of the economy, but there is also a common basis.
What are the positive factors for the sphere of natural resources? This is an opportunity to increase the
capitalization of natural resources and their value, improve other financial characteristics (rent, investment, et
cet.), achieve greater integration into the business sphere. The advantages for the economy are the ability to
include the cost characteristics of natural resources in market processes, to expand the field of investment, to
form balanced business projects involving natural resources and reducing transaction costs in the process.
Experience shows that in an industrial economy predominant interest in natural resources was to meet the
needs of the society in agricultural products, water supply functions, timber products and so on. This approach
has largely led to excessive pressure on natural resources and environmental issues. But gradually there
226
appeared a tendency to strengthen market characteristics - the possibility of entering the zone of influence of
private companies, the actualization of cost characteristics as well as the generation of financial flows.
Taking into account the studied indicators of economic security, a question arose about their possible
correction against the background of risks and threats emerging in the information sphere. Studies show that
such pathways can be identified. The first way is exogenous, which is associated with changes in external
indicators that shape the level of economic security. According to the developed methodology, foreign direct
investment and the volume of exports of goods are similar. In the conditions of the unfavorable information
background outside the state borders (objective circumstances, targeted action of competitors, unfavorable
information measures, cyber attacks on support measures), this will reduce the attractiveness of these
indicators of the recipient state. Because of this, the volume of impact of indicators will be smaller.
Another way is endogenous - it is possible to change the indicators that are formed in the endogenous space
of the state. Indicators of capital investments, local budgets can be significantly adjusted and changed under
the influence of information messages generated within the country.
5. Conclusions
The study showed that the level of economic security of the state and regions can be established through the
procedure of standardization of indicators for a particular year. The calculations proved that the coefficient of
economic security of the state is low and for 2018 it is 0.1508. The regions are significantly differentiated in
terms of economic security. It is possible to distinguish a group of regions with the highest indicators (mainly
the capital and several other economic centers) and a group of outsider regions in terms of economic security.
At the same time, the regions of the second group have opportunities to improve the level of economic security
by introducing new business projects, strengthening cross-border cooperation, supporting the development of
niche projects, building a system of interaction between natural resources and the economy.
Considering the studied indicators of economic security, it is possible to distinguish exogenous and
endogenous ways of their possible correction in the process of influencing risks and threats in the information
sphere. Ways of research of these issues include development of methodology of influence of processes in the
information sphere on the indicators of economic security, research of their features, establishment of possible
changes of economic indicators, development of basics of the state policy of a preventive nature.
6. Acknowledgments
Institutional support from the: Department of Land and Forest Resources Economics, State Institution
«Institute of Economics of Nature Management and Sustainable Development of the National Academy of
Sciences of Ukraine»; Department of Social Infrastructure, Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; Faculty of Information Technology and Management, Borys
Grinchenko Kyiv University, Kyiv, Ukraine is gratefully acknowledged.
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