The article considers issues related to the study of processes that characterize the dissemination of information materials, as well as analysis of qualitative characteristics of information to assess the potential coverage of target audiences and the degree of perception of this information by the relevant audience. The purpose of the article is to develop an analytical model for determining the required number of tools (information channels) to achieve certain goals in the implementation of the strategic narrative of the state, taking into account the requirements that affect the dissemination of information. The application of the proposed mathematical tools to determine the required number of tools (information channels) in the interests of implementing the strategic narrative of the state on the basis of analytical model of information dissemination, will reasonably form the need and volume of information and psychological impact on target audiences. , and the quality of news channels. This will provide an opportunity to identify the main tasks for the system of strategic communications and to realize the interests of the state in the form of public support for the strategic course of the state to gain full membership of Ukraine in the EU.
Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic
security space and the acquisition of NATO
membership have been identified as the main goal
of Ukraine's Military Security Strategy, which
was enacted by the Decree of the President of
Ukraine in March 2021. To achieve this goal,
Ukraine will take a set of appropriate measures.
One such measure is countering in cyberspace and
imposing one's will in the information space [
To organize the implementation of such a task, it is necessary to have an effective and efficient system of strategic communications of the state, which uses a single information space, has reliable channels of communication with the population and an appropriate branched information infrastructure.
In previous publications, the authors solved the
problem of scientific substantiation of accession
to the EU, NATO on the basis of analysis of
statistical data of public opinion and forecasting
scenarios for its development [
The obtained forecast data allowed to determine the peculiarities of the implementation of the strategic narrative of the state by the system of strategic communications and to realize the interests of the state in the form of public support for its strategic course to Ukraine's full membership in the EU and NATO. The proposed approach will allow to develop effective and efficient materials of information and psychological impact, which will be implemented by a system of strategic communications when influencing the relevant target audiences. An extremely important task will be to study the processes that characterize the distribution of information materials, as well as the analysis of qualitative characteristics of information to assess the potential coverage of target audiences and the degree of perception of this information by the relevant audience. This article is devoted to the statement of a possible variant of the decision of the resulted problems.
The armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine is carried out in various directions of the "hybrid war". Aggressive influences are carried out both simultaneously and consistently, practically on all spheres of life of the state, thus the received results in one sphere are at once used for strengthening of influence in other spheres. To date, a large number of domestic and foreign scientists are engaged in research on "hybrid actions". In the works of Landa D.V., Danyka Y.G., Salnikova O.F., Snitsarenko P.M. and many others, covers materials on the forms and methods used by the aggressor to achieve its imperial goals, and contains a number of theoretical provisions, recommendations on possible ways to counter. Unfortunately, scientific publications on the mathematical justification of the necessary forces and means, in achieving specific goals, are not enough.
A number of software services are available on
the Internet, with which it is possible to simulate
the process of information dissemination. The
authors with the help of one of such services
(Melting Asphalt) visualized a model of
information dissemination among the target
audience [
The purpose of the article is the development of an analytical model for determining the required number of tools (information channels) to achieve certain goals in the implementation of the strategic narrative of the state, taking into account the requirements that affect the process of dissemination of information.
Today, along with Ukraine, there are several states and their associations, more powerful than Ukraine, which have interests different from the national interests of Ukraine, and Ukraine is not able to resist their aggressive actions alone. Therefore, joining NATO is one of the government's priorities in order to protect national interests.
Public opinion gained very drastic changes in the direction of European and North Atlantic cooperation with the beginning of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation. Unfortunately, during the war, Ukrainian society did not get the desired result in terms of proper support and national security of Ukraine from the EU and NATO. Starting in 2017, the number of supporters of such integration began to gradually decrease.
Public opinion on EU accession has changed
somewhat depending on the political, military and
economic processes that have taken place in
Ukraine over the past two decades. To achieve the
stated goal of the study, it is not enough for us to
assess only the current distribution of public
opinion on this issue. It is necessary to identify the
general trends of its change in the future, to
choose those that are directed in the desired
direction for us and are characterized by the
greatest reliability. This was achieved using
scientific forecasting, namely the method of
statistical extrapolation. The analysis of the
obtained results shows that in order to ensure
further positive forecast development of public
opinion of the population of Ukraine on EU
accession it is necessary in 2022 and 2023 to
increase the number of supporters of society in
this direction by 2.4 million people, respectively.
(6.3%) in 2022 and 0.7 million people. (2.1%) in
2023 [
The obtained forecast data provided an opportunity to determine the peculiarities of the implementation of the strategic narrative of the state by the system of strategic communications and to realize the interests of the state in the form of public support for its strategic course to Ukraine's full membership in the EU and NATO. An extremely important task will be to study the processes that characterize the distribution of information materials, as well as the analysis of qualitative characteristics of information to assess the potential coverage of target audiences and the degree of perception of this information by the relevant audience. In order to calculate the required number of information channels that will be used in the implementation of the strategic narrative of the state, it is necessary to calculate the corresponding need for such means of influence on the relevant target audiences. This article is devoted to the statement of a possible variant of the decision of the resulted problems.
It is known that such problems are solved on
the basis of modern scientific methods of social
research theory and information theory. However,
recently, research methods have been used, which
are based on the similarity of the processes of
dissemination of information on social networks
and the processes of epidemics [
Let's move on to a direct consideration of the
analytical model of information dissemination.
This model can be represented as the following
system of differential equations [
= − ( ) + ( ) + ( ) ; = − ( ) − ( ) + ( ) (1 – );
= ( ( ) + ( )) − ( ) . { where A – the number of active subscribers to the news channel, i.e., those who read the news; B – the number of inactive subscribers to the channel, i.e. those who have not read the news, but are subscribers; did not read the news; agent; news agent;
C – the number of non-subscribers who λ – the intensity of subscribing to a news μ – the intensity of unsubscribing from the ξ – intensity of reading the news.
With the initial conditions at the time = 0: (0) = 0, (0) = 0, (0) = 0.
0 > 0, 0 > 0, 0 > 0.
The solution of this system of equations can be presented as follows:
( ) = 1 + 2 (− − ) – 3 (− − ), ( ) = − 1 − 2 (− − ) + 3 (− − ) , ( ) = 1 + 2 (− − ), where 1 = _0+ 0 + 0 − 0 ,
− + − 2 = − 0 − 0 + 0 − 0 ,
− + − 3 = 0 − 0 + 0 − 0 + 0
− 0 − + − where g = [ λξ μ − ξ(− λξ+ λ)],
μ(− μ− ξ) = [− + = (− + ),
− − = (−
+ ). − (− ( − )
+ )],
Data on the quantitative values of the first two parameters can be obtained by monitoring the news agent and the number of his subscribers. Parameter ξ takes into account such properties of the news as the relevance and timing of publication, as well as the activity of interaction of subscribers in the internal networks of the news agent.
Relevance of the news we will interpret as the probability of meeting the selected news in all the sources under consideration. That is = where
– the number of news sources that describe the selected news;
– total number of sources.
A parameter that characterizes the time of publication
of наступним чином: the news
визначається = , where – the amount of news on a particular topic, which includes controlled news, located in the user's news feed above the control news;
The analysis of the obtained results shows that the growth rate of active subscribers of the news channel depends on the number of researched target audiences. This is absolutely self-evident and logically justified. But the growth of the number of active subscribers significantly depends on the relevance of information news, political, economic, social orientation of the information message, professional skills of its presentation, as well as the level of rating authority of the information channel of its energy capacity and information capacity to disseminate news. It is clear that these characteristics of the information channel always have certain limitations. That is why in order to achieve the success of the information impact, it is necessary to assess in advance the capabilities of each available information channel on the capabilities of its information impact on the growth of the channel's active subscribers from the total population. Based on the results of these calculations, it is possible to determine the required number of information channels of different information capacity, for example, to achieve the planned positive forecast development of public opinion of the population of Ukraine on accession to the EU.
Thus, from the analysis of the results obtained with the help of the considered analytical model of information dissemination, we can conclude that for the studied period of time (two weeks), for the considered variants of the studied population the increase of active subscribers will increase by: 1294500 − 1264000 = 30500 new active subscribers − for option 1;
875400 − 861970 = 13430 new active subscribers − for option 2;
531010 − 522890 = 8120 new active subscribers − for option 3.
That is, with the use of the considered information channels of the corresponding information and technical capacity for the given variants of quantitative groups of the population the growth of the number of active subscribers during the year can increase accordingly by: 30500 * 2 * 12 = 732000 new subscribers; 13430 * 2 * 12 = 322320 new subscribers; 8120 * 2 * 12 = 194880 new subscribers.
According to the forecast [
3100000: 732000 ≈ 5 information channels with the capacity of option 1;
3100000: 322320 ≈ 10 information channels with the capacity of option 2;
3100000: 194880 ≈ 16 information channels with the ability of option 3.
Thinking similarly, you can calculate the required number of information and news channels targeted at specific target audiences or the number of channels of the required level of popularity and quality of information materials. However, it is clear that the qualitative assessment of information materials, their favorableness, and i.e., the impact on public opinion during the year cannot be equally effective. The success and effectiveness of the information channel depends on staffing, training, acquisition, purchase of technical means for the development of materials and many other factors.
The main goal for the system of strategic communications of the Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to achieve a strategic narrative. As noted, the positive statistics of public opinion on support for EU accession is somewhat reduced, so such a narrative for this system should be the formation and strengthening of public opinion on supporting the strategic course of the state.
The application of the proposed mathematical tools to determine the required number of tools (information channels) in the interests of implementing the strategic narrative of the state on the basis of analytical model of information dissemination, will reasonably form the need and scope of information and psychological impact on target audiences, and the quality of news channels. This will provide an opportunity to identify the main tasks for the system of strategic communications and realize the interests of the state in the form of public support for the strategic course of the state to gain full membership of Ukraine in the EU.
Further development of this study should be carried out on the basis of modern scientific methods of the theory of social research and the theory of information operations in order to identify time indicators that characterize the distribution of materials of information influences to each target audience. It is especially important to receive such information from the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, which will allow to reasonably identify target audiences, argue the subject of messages and channels of information and psychological influence. To ensure the optimal total information impact, it is advisable to carry out a scientifically sound distribution of the projected total volume of tasks between the various structural units of the system of strategic communications, taking into account the characteristics of different target audiences. This will provide an opportunity not only to specify the goals and objectives for each structural unit of the strategic communications system, but also to develop effective and efficient materials of information and psychological impact to achieve them. This will allow to argue the subject of messages and choose the channels of distribution of materials of information and psychological influence, taking into account the individual characteristics of target audiences.
Reviewer: Doctor of tech. sciences. Professor Evseev S.P., Head of the Department of Cybersecurity and Information Technology, S. Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics.