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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Small Overfitting Probability in Minimization of Empirical Risk for FCA-based Machine Learning</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Dmitry V. Vinogradov</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Dorodnicyn Computing Center, Federal Research Center for Computer Science and Control, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Moscow 119333</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Main result of the paper provides a small upper bound on a probability of overfitting in FCA-based Machine Learning in the simplest case of Boolean algebra without counter-examples. This Machine Learning approach uses a set of randomly generated formal concepts to predict test examples. The well-known Vapnik-Chervonenkis' technique of empirical risk minimization determines a number of generated concepts. Estimations of Mixture and Stopping times of several probabilistic algorithms based on Markov chains leads to a plausible assumption on the uniform independent distribution of elements of Boolean algebra. In this case the main theorem proves that the probability of overfitting in fixed fraction of test examples tends to zero faster than exponent when the number of attributes goes to infinity.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;FCA</kwd>
        <kwd>Markov chain</kwd>
        <kwd>empirical risk</kwd>
        <kwd>overfitting</kwd>
        <kwd>Boolean algebra</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>applies the coupling Markov chain to generate a random sample of concepts. Each run of this
chain terminates with probability 1. Early the system uses a monotonic Markov chain that
corresponds to the famous Lazy Random Walk in the case of Boolean algebra. The paper [10]
discuses Induction procedure for generalization of training examples into hypotheses about
causes of the property under research with counter-examples forbidding. Finally the system
predicts a target class of each test example by Analogy reasoning.</p>
      <p>The main result of paper [10] gives a suficient number of hypotheses to predict a target class
with given level of confidence. The framework is dual to the famous one of V.N. Vapnik and</p>
      <sec id="sec-1-1">
        <title>A.Ya. Chervonenkis with respect to their dimension of a classifiers class.</title>
        <p>However V.N. Vapnik and A.Ya. Chervonenkis also developed another approach to choose a
good hypothesis. Best one must minimize an empirical risk (a fraction of wrongly predicted
training examples). The main problem in this approach is to estimate a fraction of test examples
with prediction error. We provide a partial answer on this task in the simplest case of Boolean
algebra without counter-examples.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Background</title>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>2.1. Basic definitions and facts</title>
        <p>
          Here we recall some basic definitions and facts of Machine Learning based on Formal Concept
Analysis (FCAML) in the particular case of Boolean algebra. Most general situation is considered
in [10]. Book [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
          ] is the best source of information about Formal Concept Analysis itself.
        </p>
        <p>The smallest (formal) context for -dimensional Boolean algebra is a triple (, , ̸=),
where  = {1, . . . , } is a set of coatoms (objects),  = {1, . . . , } is a set of binary
attributes, and ̸=⊆  ×  is relation defined as  ̸=  ⇔  ̸= .</p>
        <p>A concept of the Boolean algebra context (, , ̸=) is defined to be a pair (, ), where
 ⊆ ,  ⊆  ,  = { ∈  : ∀ ∈  [ ̸= ]}. The first component  of the concept
(, ) is called the extent of the concept, and the second component  is called its intent. It
clear that the lattice of concepts coincides with Boolean algebra of all the subsets  ⊆  . We
consider the partial order on it dual to set inclusions.</p>
        <p>This observation proves truth of the first obstacle of applicability of FCA to Big Data from
Introduction. When formal context occupies 2 bites only, the full description of -dimensional
Boolean algebra requires  · 2 bites of memory.</p>
        <p>Proposition 1. For context (, , ̸=) corresponding Boolean algebra of concepts has (∅,  ) as
the bottom element and (, ∅) as the top element. In other words, for every the concept (, ) the
following inequalities hold:</p>
        <p>(∅,  ) ≤ (, ) ≤ (, ∅).</p>
        <p>Definition 1. For a concept (, ),  ∈ , and  ∈  define</p>
        <p>((, ), ) =
((, ),  ) =
{︃(, )
{︃(, )
( ∪ {},  ∖ {})  ∈/ 
( ∖ { },  ∪ { })  ∈/ 
 ∈ 
.</p>
        <p>(1)
(2)
(3)</p>
        <p>
          We call these operations CbO because the first one is used in Close-by-One (CbO) Algorithm
to generate all the formal concepts of an arbitrary context, see [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          ] for details.
        </p>
        <p>Monotonicity property of introduced operations are summarized in the following Lemma.
Lemma 1. Let (, , ̸=) be a context, (, ) and (, ) be concepts for it,  ∈ , and  ∈  .
Then</p>
        <p>(, ) ≤ (, ) ⇒ ((, ), ) ≤ ((, ), ),
(, ) ≤ (, ) ⇒ ((, ), ) ≤ ((, ), ).
(4)
(5)</p>
        <p>Initially the system used the monotonic Markov chain algorithm as a core of probabilistic
approach to Machine Learning based on FCA.</p>
        <p>Data: context (, , ̸=)</p>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-1">
          <title>Result: random concept (, )</title>
          <p>:=  ⊔  ; (, ) := (∅,  );
for ( := 0;  &lt;  ;  + +) do
select random element  ∈  ;
(, ) := ((, ), );
end</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-2">
          <title>Algorithm 1: Monotonic Markov chain</title>
          <p>The main dificulty with the monotonic Markov chain in general case is an absence of a good
estimation on length  of its trajectory to achieve approximately stationary distribution.
However the case of Boolean algebra was investigated successfully by the author. Next subsection
contains the key results about it.</p>
          <p>Then the coupling Markov chain algorithm described below appears, where there exists the
natural stopping moment. Now it is a working horse for our approach.</p>
          <p>Data: context (, , ̸=)
Result: random concept (, )
 :=  ⊔  ; (, ) := (∅,  ); (, ) = (, ∅);
while ( ̸= ) do
select random element  ∈  ;
(, ) := ((, ), );
(, ) := ((, ), );
end</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-3">
          <title>Algorithm 2: Coupling Markov chain</title>
          <p>The algorithm terminates when upper and lower concepts coincide. Condition on remaining
of ordering between two concepts (, ) ≤ (, ) at any intermediate step of the while loop
of Algorithm 2 follows from Lemma 1.</p>
          <p>Now we represent Machine Learning based on FCA (FCAML-method) for our setting (Boolean
algebra without counter-examples). See seminal paper[10] for description of the general scheme
of FCAML-method.</p>
          <p>The reader can learn the classical deterministic FCA-based approach to Machine Learning
from Kuznetsov [5]. Our technique uses probabilistic Algorithm 2 for computing a random
subset of concepts.</p>
          <p>As usual, there are two sets of objects called the training  = {1, . . . , } and test  =
{1, . . . , } samples, respectively. Set  contains examples to predict the target class (so-called
test objects).</p>
          <p>From the training samples the program generates a formal context (, , ̸=), where  =
{1, . . . , }. After that the program applies the coupling Markov chain Algorithm 2 to
generate a given number  of random concepts (, ).</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-4">
          <title>Data: number  of concepts to generate</title>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-5">
          <title>Result: random sample  of formal concepts</title>
          <p>while ( &lt;  ) do</p>
          <p>Generate concept (, ) by Algorithm 2;
 :=  ∪ {(, )};
 :=  + 1;
end
end
break;
end
end</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-6">
          <title>Algorithm 3: Inductive generalization</title>
          <p>FCAML-method replaces a time-consuming deterministic algorithm (for instance,
"Close-byOne") for generation of all concepts by the probabilistic one to randomly generate the prescribed
number of concepts. The goal of Markov chain approach is to select a random sample of formal
concepts without computation of the (possibly exponential size) set of all the concepts.</p>
          <p>How to select number  of concepts for the coupling Markov chain? There are 2 diferent
approaches, both based on ideas of V.N. Vapnik and A.Ya. Chervonenkis. The approach promoted
by K.V. Vorontsov is the empirical risk minimization.</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-7">
          <title>Data: random sample  of concepts</title>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-8">
          <title>Result: empirical risk value</title>
          <p>:=training examples;  := 0;
for ( ∈ ) do
for (⟨, ⟩ ∈ ) do
if ( ⊆ { }′) then
 :=  + 1 ;</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-9">
          <title>Algorithm 4: Calculation of empirical risk</title>
          <p>In the Boolean algebra case it is possible select suficiently large  to make the empirical
rick equals to 0.</p>
          <p>With permutation, we can assume without reducing generality that the first  objects were
included in the training sample, and the last  objects form the test sample.</p>
          <p>Let  of FCA Machine Learning hypotheses be generated using a coupling Markov chain
from a training sample for Boolean algebra, where  chosen suficiently large to obtain  = 0.</p>
          <p>Stationary distribution uniformity on hypotheses allows to construct hypothesis ℎ =
( ,  ) (where 1 ≤  ≤  ) from independent Bernoulli sequence  = ( ,1, . . . ,  ,)
as  = { :  , = 0} and  = { :  , = 1}.</p>
          <p>Finally, the FCAML program predicts the target class of test examples and computes tests
example + with the intent {+}′ = { ∈  :  ̸= }.</p>
          <p>Consider set  of binary features  = {1, . . . , }. For each 1 ≤  ≤  introduce test
Independent Bernoulli sequence  = ( ,1, . . . ,  ,) determines the corresponding
hypothesis ℎ = ( ,  ), where  = { :  , = 0} and  = { :  , = 1}.</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-10">
          <title>Result: number of erroneous predicted test examples</title>
          <p>Data: random sample  = {(1, 1), . . . , ( ,  )} of concepts
 :=test examples;  = 0;
for ( ∈ ) do
for ( := 0;  &lt;  ;  + +) do
if ( ⊆ { }′) then</p>
          <p>:=  + 1;
end
break;
end
end
hypercube.</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-11">
          <title>Algorithm 5: Calculation of fraction of erroneous predictions</title>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>2.2. Approximate Uniformity of Random Subsets</title>
        <p>Algorithm 1 in the case of Boolean algebra coincides with famous Lazy Random Walk on Boolean
Lemma 2. Stationary distribution  of Lazy Random Walk is uniform.</p>
        <p>The simplest proof of Lemma 2 uses reversibility of the corresponding Markov chain with</p>
        <sec id="sec-2-2-1">
          <title>Balance equations with respect to uniform distribution  .</title>
          <p>∈ ⟩ on finite space  is defined as the half of 1-metric, i.e. ‖ −  ‖  = 21 · ∑︀
Definition 2.</p>
          <p>Total variation distance between distributions  = ⟨  :  ∈ ⟩ and  = ⟨  :
∈ |  −  |.</p>
          <p>Lemma 3. ‖ −  ‖  = max⊆ | () −  ()|.</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-2-2">
          <title>This Lemma is a direct consequence of Definition 2.</title>
          <p>Proposition 2. For Lazy Random Walk let
and  = 0 otherwise, and let  be the uniform distribution. Then
 (0) =</p>
          <p>P [+1 =  |  = ] = ,
 ( ) =</p>
          <p>P [+1 = ( ⊕  ) |  = ] =
1
2
1
2
− 1 .
holds for  ≥ 21 ·  · (log  + ).</p>
          <p>
            This proposition is analogue of result of Diakonis [
            <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
            ] and it was proved by the author during
his research on monotonic Markov chain (Algorithm 1).
          </p>
          <p>Comparison of Algorithms 1 and 2 gives assertion that the lower component of the coupling</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-2-3">
          <title>Markov chain coincides with a state of the monotonic Markov chain.</title>
          <p>The next two propositions estimate mean length E of trajectory of coupling Markov chain
(Algorithm 2) and proves the strong concentration of trajectory length  around the mean E .
The author proved them during research on coupling Markov chain (Algorithm 2).
Proposition 3. For -dimensional Boolean algebra
Proposition 4. For -dimensional Boolean algebra</p>
          <p>=1
when  → ∞ for any  &gt; 0.</p>
          <p>Statements of Propositions 2 and 3 and Lemma 4 imply the assertion that outputs of Algorithm</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-2-4">
          <title>2 are approximately uniformly distributed.</title>
          <p>Since each trajectory depends only on (pseudo-)random number generator, these outputs are
independent.</p>
          <p>But random subsets of binary attributes can be generated by Bernoulli sequences. It provides
possibility of direct probabilistic computations. In the next section these considerations lead to
main result of the paper.</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Main result</title>
      <p>Any set of hypotheses about causes of the target property can be considered as a classifier: if a
test example includes at least one hypothesis, then the classifier will predict the target class
positively; if none of the hypothetical reasons is embedded in a test example, then this example
is classified negatively.</p>
      <p>The method of minimizing empirical risk proposed by V.N. Vapnik and A.Ya. Chervonenkis
[7] consists in choosing algorithms for which the classification of training examples contains
the minimum number of errors (empirical, or observed, risk). In our case, there will always
be classifiers (sets of hypotheses) whose empirical risk is zero. We restrict ourselves to these
situations only. On the other hand, a risk of making a mistake in predicting test examples
remains.</p>
      <p>Following K.V. Vorontsov[11], we will randomly divide objects into two groups: training and
test examples. For simplicity, let’s assume that the number of objects is even, and the splitting
is done in half. This assumption does not reduce generality, since the mean binomial coeficient
is the largest one.</p>
      <p>Let’s denote the empirical risk by  and introduce the prediction risk as a fraction of  = /
incorrectly predicted test examples. We are interested in the probability of P [ = 0,  =  ]
when objects are evenly divided into training and test samples in half.</p>
      <p>Since the probabilities are equal for each partition, we can assume without reducing generality
that the first  objects were included in the training sample, and the last  objects form the test
sample.</p>
      <p>Let  of FCAML hypotheses be generated using a coupling Markov chain from a training
sample for Boolean algebra. If the trajectories are chosen long enough, then the distribution
of hypotheses will be (almost) uniform and independent. Uniformity follows from the
property of fast mixing to a uniform stationary distribution, and independence follows from the
independence of the Markov chain trajectories generating the FCAML hypotheses.</p>
      <p>Denote generated hypotheses as  = {ℎ1, ℎ2, . . . , ℎ } and form a table like
 | 
1

+1
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(1+ )
(1+ )+1
2
ℎ1</p>
      <p>ℎ2
0
.
.
.
0
0
.
.
.
0
1
.
.
.
0
1
.
.
.
0
0
.
.
.
0
0
.
.
.
1
. . .
. . .
.
.</p>
      <p>.
. . .
. . .
0
. . .
. . .
.
.</p>
      <p>.
. . .</p>
      <p>ℎ
0
.
.
.
1
0
.
.
.
0
0
.
.
.
1</p>
      <p>Here 1 corresponds to inclusion of given hypothesis into a given example, i.e. the hypothesis
predicts the example correctly (positively).</p>
      <p>To reach the empirical risk  = 0 each of the first  rows must contain at least one 1.</p>
      <p>Due to the uniform distribution and independence of hypotheses, the corresponding cells
form an independent Bernoulli series with a probability of success 12 .</p>
      <p>Lemma 4. If hypotheses number  ≥ (1+ ) log2  for some  &gt; 0 then lim→∞ P [ = 0] = 1.
Proof.</p>
      <p>1 ≥ →∞
lim (︀ 1
− 2−  )︀  = lim
→∞
︂[
︀( 1
− 2−  )︀ 2 ]︂ · 2−</p>
      <p>=
→∞
= lim [︀ − 1]︀ · 2− 
≥ →∞
lim − 1/ = 1.</p>
      <p>To achieve  =  fraction of erroneous predictions of test examples it needs to select  · 
rows of the lower half (there are (︀  ·)︀ ways to do this) containing zeroes only, the rest rows
can contains ones somewhere. Table above corresponds to the situation with choice of rows
+1, . . . , (1+ )· .</p>
      <p>The task is to estimate P = (︀  ·)︀ · ︀( 1</p>
      <p>− 2−  )︀ (2−  ) · (︀ 2−  )︀  ·  when  → ∞.</p>
      <p>Lemma 5 (Stirling’s formula). ! ≈</p>
      <p>√2  for  → ∞.</p>
      <p>Lemma 6 (Entropy inequality). −  · ln  − (1 −  ) · ln(1 −  ) ≤ ln 2.</p>
      <p>Theorem 1. lim→∞ P ≤
∞ and  ≥ (1 +  ) log2 .
exp {︀ − (1 +  ) ·  ·  · ln  + ln 2 ·  −
Proof. The second factor of P = (︀  ·)︀ · ︀( 1 − 2−  )︀ (2−  ) · (︀ 2−  )︀  ·  does not exceed 1. Stirling’s
formula and Entropy inequality imply</p>
      <p>P ≤</p>
      <p>√2 ·  ·  ·  · (1−  )·  ·  ·  · (1−  )·  · (︀ 2−  )︀  · 
 · √2 ·  · √︀2 (1 −  ) ·  ·   ·  ·  ·  · (1 −  )(1−  )·  · (1−  )·  ≤</p>
      <p>2−  · · (1+ )· log2 
=
≤ √︀2 (1 −  ) ·  ·  · · ln  · (1−  )· · ln(1−  )
−  · (1+ )· · ln  · · (−  · ln  − (1−  )· ln(1−  ))
√︀2 (1 −  ) · √</p>
      <p>=
≤
−  · (1+ )· · ln  · ln 2· 
√︀2 (1 −  ) · √</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Conclusions</title>
      <p>Main theorem of the paper provides a small upper bound on a probability of overfitting in
FCA-based Machine Learning in the simplest case of Boolean algebra without counter-examples.
It states that the probability of overfitting in fixed fraction of test examples tends to zero faster
than exponent when the number of attributes goes to infinity. Interesting alternative for our
research is the work of T.P. Makhalova and S.O. Kuznetsov [6], where classifiers form a lattice.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgements.</title>
      <p>The author would like to thank his colleagues at Dorodnicyn Computing Center of Russian
Academy of Science and especially his PhD student L.A. Yakimova for collaboration and helpful
discussions.</p>
      <p>The author is grateful to anonymous reviewers for improving the style of presentation.
[4] Kuznetsov S.O. Complexity of Learning in Concept Lattices from Positive and Negative</p>
      <sec id="sec-5-1">
        <title>Examples. Discrete Applied Mathematics, no. 142(1-3). – 2004. – pp. 111–125 [5] Kuznetsov S.O. Machine Learning and Formal Concept Analysis. Proc. 2nd International</title>
        <p>Conference on Formal Concept Analysis: Springer LNAI, Vol. 2961. – 2004. – pp. 287–312
[6] Makhalova T.P. and Kuznetsov S.O. On Overfitting of Classifiers Making a Lattice. Proc.
14th International Conference on Formal Concept Analysis: Springer LNAI, Vol. 10308. –
2017. – pp. 184–197
[7] Vapnik V.N. Statistical Learning Theory, Wiley-Interscience, 1998
[8] Vinogradov D.V. A Markov Chain Approach to Random Generation of Formal Concepts.</p>
        <p>Proc. of Workshop Formal Concept Analysis Meets Information Retrieval (FCAIR 2013): CEUR
Workshop Proceedings, Vol. 977. – 2013. – p. 127–133
[9] Vinogradov D.V. Accidental Formal Concepts in the Presence of Counterexamples. Proc.
of Workshop on Formal Concept Analysis for Knowledge Discovery (FCA4KD 2017): CEUR
Workshop Proceedings, Vol. 1921. – 2017. – p. 104–112
[10] Vinogradov D.V. FCA-based Approach to Machine Learning. Proc. of Workshop on Formal
Concept Analysis for Artificial Intelligence (FCA4AI 2019): CEUR Workshop Proceedings ,
Vol. 2529. – 2019. – p. 57–64
[11] Vorontsov K.V. and Ivahnenko A. Tight Combinatorial Generalization Bounds for Threshold
Conjunction Rules. Proc. of 4th International Conference on Pattern Recognition and Machine
Intelligence. – 2011. – p. 66–73</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
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