=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-3295/paper15
|storemode=property
|title=Intellectual Models of Projects for the Development of
Transport Infrastructure of Urban Territorial Systems
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3295/paper15.pdf
|volume=Vol-3295
|authors=Oleh Zachko,Vasyl Demchyna,Iryna Zachko
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/itpm/ZachkoDZ22
}}
==Intellectual Models of Projects for the Development of
Transport Infrastructure of Urban Territorial Systems==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3295/paper15.pdf
Intellectual Models of Projects for the Development of
Transport Infrastructure of Urban Territorial Systems
Oleh Zachko a, Vasyl Demchyna a, Iryna Zachkob
a
Lviv State University of Life Safety, Kleparivska Street, Lviv, 79007, Ukraine
b
Nestle Business Services Lviv, Uhorska Street, Lviv, 79000, Ukraine
Annotation
Intellectual models of projects for the development of transport infrastructure of urban
territorial systems by means of discrete-event modeling are developed in the article. The
modern trend of conducting scientific research is the use of information technologies in the
process of simulation modeling at the planning stage. The peculiarities of the use of
information technologies in the management of infrastructure projects are considered. The
most well-known software tools for modeling transport systems are analyzed and a
comparative analysis of the functionality of modeling packages is performed Infrastructure
projects require detailed analysis and planning of the time characteristics, budget and WBS
structure of the project. The classification and characteristics of stakeholders of the transport
infrastructure project are offered. A conceptual model-scheme of the life cycle of stakeholders
involved in the transport project has been developed. Stakeholders of the infrastructure project
and their direct impact on the success of the implementation of set tasks for the team are taken
into account. The classification of risks in the implementation of the transport infrastructure
project is proposed, which aims to promote the effectiveness of risk management in the
implementation of transport infrastructure projects.
Keywords 1
Simulation, information technology, infrastructure projects, stakeholders, risk
management, transport infrastructure.
1. Introduction
The research of complex infrastructure projects is a quite costly, expensive and time-consuming
process. Therefore, for such tasks, the modeling of critical parameters of the product of infrastructure
project is used, which formalizes the object under study. During the analysis of modeling methods it
was detected that an effective approach at this stage in the development of science and technology is
simulation.
Simulation solves real world problems safely and intelligently. It is a convenient tool for analysis:
it is clear, easy to understand and check. In various areas of business and science, simulation helps to
find optimal solutions and provides a clear understanding of complex systems. Simulation modeling is
an experiment on a reliable digital representation of any system. Unlike physical modeling, such as
creating a model of a building, simulation modeling is based on computer technology using algorithms
and equations. The simulation model can be analyzed dynamically, and animations can be viewed in
2D or 3D.
___________________________
Proceedings of the 3nd International Workshop IT Project Management (ITPM 2022), August 26, 2022, Kyiv, Ukraine
EMAIL: zachko@ukr.net (Oleh Zachko); demchynavasyl@gmail.com (Vasyl Demchena); irynazachko@ukr.net (Iryna Zachko)
ORCID: 00000-0002-3208-9826 (Oleh Zachko); 0000-0002-6123-5255 (Vasyl Demchena); 0000-0001-8846-8828 (Iryna Zachko)
2022 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
Computer simulations are used in order to design, analyze and evaluate the operation of the facility
when experiments on a real system are impossible or impractical, most often because of their cost or
time. The ability to analyze a model in action distinguishes simulation from other methods such as
using Excel or linear programming. The user studies the processes and makes changes to the
simulation model in the course of work, which allows you to better analyze the operation of the system
and quickly solve the problem. Uncertainty in the time and results of operations is easily displayed
with the help of a simulation model, which allows you to assess the degree of risk and find the most
reliable solutions. For example, you can get a realistic picture of an infrastructure project.
To simulate complex infrastructure projects, applied information technologies are used, which
simulate the processes of the life product of the project based on intellectual models. This, in turn,
allows to present the configuration of the project product, program or portfolio of projects at the
planning stage. Through the project-oriented management project team realizes the customer's
expectations regarding planned budget, timelines and quality of the product or service. Virtual
experiments with simulation models will be much cheaper and take less time than experiments with
real systems. For example, we will be able to test the effectiveness of planned infrastructure projects,
avoiding unnecessary costs. A simulation model displays much more detail than an analytical model.
This makes the simulation model more accurate and the predictions based on it more certain.
2. Analysis of literature
[1] The model of infection of stakeholders is presented, which is based on the understanding of the
life cycle of the project manager, which is presented in the form of a curve of personal changes of the
manager of projects and programs of the information system.
The works [2] considers the problems of emotional contamination of the requested infrastructure
project in a crisis.
[3] The conducted a study which showed that only 11 competencies were identified by experts as a
set of competencies that affect the development of creative potential.
The paper [4], an approach based on considering the process of changing information entropy as a
semi-Markov process is proposed.
[5] The role of strategic audit of infrastructure projects and programs is investigated. The effective
management of changes in the strategy of complex projects should be in place due to significant
uncertainty and impact of external and internal factors. The relationships between strategic
development of organizations and strategic audit of infrastructure projects and programs are analyzed.
The adaptive model of assessment of external challenges is proposed, as well as the algorithm on the
model of strategic audit of the maturity of organizations is presented.
[6] Analyzes the tasks of targeting and mission description in infrastructure projects. Effective
strategies for projects implementation in a dynamic environment have been identified. Through to this,
the manager is able to predict the decisions made in the short and long term perspective. Formulation
of the mission and the assessment of its value are carried out by the customer and clarified with the
project stakeholders for the sake of effective and productive communication. Also, this paper analyzes
the feasibility of applying the contextual analysis for the complex design and interpretation of the
mission of infrastructure projects and programs.
The paper [7] analyzes the current trend of using hybrid technologies in complex systems. The
usage of "waterfall" and "flexible" Agile life cycle management methods for development of hybrid
technology in the management of infrastructure projects, programs and project portfolios based on a
convergent approach in terms of decision-making processes is investigated. The proposed models
were effectively applied in construction projects and in projects for the development of information
and communication systems. The deadlines were met, and the budget did not exceed planned costs.
These developments should be adapted for the development of transport systems.
The works [8, 9, 10] consider the processes of safety management in complex infrastructure
projects that allow to simulate critical parameters of the functioning of products of infrastructure
projects.
In the scientific work [11] a study of the synthesis of project management methodology with fuzzy
input parameters of the project was conducted.
In the work [12] models of management of infrastructure transport products at the conceptual stage
are investigated. The relationships between stakeholder requirements, time constraints and parameters
of transport infrastructure product are determined.
The work [13] considers the usage of the "Six Sigma" methodology in the context of management
of system of quality (TQM) of infrastructure projects in Ukraine. The analysis of problems of
implementation the system of management of quality of cluster infrastructure is carried out.
After analyzing the international standards for management of projects, programs and portfolios of
PMBok, P2M projects [14, 15], we found out that the problems of assurance and planning of safety in
project management are not comprehensively investigated.
The content characteristics of the interaction model and the features of stakeholder management
were studied in the works of such scientists: P. Khvostenko [16], who developed new methodologies
for working with stakeholders, D. Dudenkov [17], V. Gorbun [18], who proposed methods for
choosing strategies for working with stakeholders, L. Gatsenko, N. Dotsenko, M. Jurgens [19, 20, 21],
who studied the history of stakeholder management and proposed new tools.
Within the framework of “The Large Construction” project in Ukraine, engineering and
development of transport infrastructure has been initiated. In 2021, 5,098 km of roads and 250
artificial structures were built and reconstructed. $106 billion UAH has been spent on these goals.
In 2020, 4,056 km of roads has been repaired and 158 artificial structures has been created with the
cost 83 billion UAH. In 2019, 846 km of roads has been repaired and 73 artificial structures has been
created with the cost 21.3 billion UAH (Figure 1).
120
100
80
billion UAH
60
40
20
0
2019 2020 2021
Figure 1: Road construction costs in Ukraine in the period 2019-2021.
According to the Ministry of Infrastructure [22] the cost of 1 km of road in 2019 was to 25.2
million UAH, in 2020 –20.4 million UAH, in 2021 – 20.7 million UAH. The average price of 1 km of
road in 2021 increased by 1.5% and is still 18% lower than in 2019 (Figure 2).
846 km
5098 km 2019
2020
2021
4056 km
Figure 2: Diagram of new roads built in Ukraine in the period 2019-2021.
3. Research results
The most well-known software for modeling of transport systems are DRACULA, AIMSUN 2,
VISSIM, CORSIM, PARAMICS (see Table 1).
The DRACULA package is designed for road modeling, which includes a microscopic model for
simulating of traffic, and it simulates the process of movement of cars and their interaction regarding
the transport network. An important feature of DRACULA is the animation of traffic flows, which is
inseparable for understanding the traffic behavior under various criteria of planning transport networks
and their managing strategies. An important advantage of DRACULA is that vehicles move in real
time, and their trajectories are determined using car driving models and lane changes. This software
also takes into account data about the driver's past experience and his knowledge of the network,
stored in a personal history file. DRACULA makes it possible to simulate the driver's reaction to
traffic jams or lane changes, which is important when studying the emergency parts of the transport
network.
AIMSUN 2 software is designed to simulate a network of suburban and urban transport systems,
which allows the user to use a comfortable interface that eases the construction of the model and its
entire usage for imitation. This software product is based on microscopic modeling. This means that
the behavior of each vehicle is constantly adjusted according to several patterns of driver behavior
(following cars, changing lanes) throughout the simulation period. AIMSUN2 uses a discrete-
continuous approach. This means that the model consists of elements (vehicles, detectors), the state of
which changes continuously. The state of other elements (traffic light signals, entry points) changes
discretely at given moments of time. This approach provides a high level of detail in traffic modeling,
provides an opportunity to distinguish between types of vehicles and drivers, as well as to simulate
traffic events and maneuvers.
The VISSIM package is a package for road modeling of network and traffic flows at the micro
level. The VISSIM is widely used for the analysis, optimization, design and redesign of suburban,
intercity and urban transport networks. The results of VISSIM are widely used to determine the
optimal control of vehicles, to check the effectiveness of layouts of transport hubs, the distribution of
lanes of complex crossroads, the dislocation of bus stops and parking lots for transport. VISSIM can
also be used as a useful tool for various transportation tasks. Driver behavior in VISSIM is described
using the R. Wiedemann model, which allows one to take into account such psychophysical properties
as decision time and driver reaction time. VISSIM allows you to collect statistics on any part of the
transport network and generate relevant reports, create presentations and videos.
CORSIM is a traffic microsimulation program developed by the FHWA (Federal Highway
Administration). This software product consists of two separate programs. The first program -
NETSIM - was created to model urban transport networks and pedestrian crossings. The second
program - FRESIM - was created for modeling and analysis of highways. CORSIM combined this
software, which allowed CORSIM to model complex transport systems and analyze them. CORSIM
software has been improved based on user feedback. As a result, a number of errors were detected and
corrected. This software uses a micro-simulation model that allows you to assess the impact of the
actions of road users on each other. The program allows you to assess the process of traffic
accumulation, which is the cause of congestion in the transport network. Congestion is a fairly
common problem in transport systems and can only be analyzed using microsimulation tools such as
CORSIM.
PARAMICS is a micro-level road traffic simulation software that is fully scalable and designed to
simulate intersections, interchanges, congested highways, and optimize traffic and control public
transport routes, traffic lights, and more. This software allows you to take into account in the
simulation of public transport, such as buses and trams, as well as pedestrian traffic. Each vehicle is
modeled taking into account the time required to travel the road and the congestion of the road
network, thus ensuring a very accurate flow of traffic. In addition to predefined vehicle classes, the
user can create their own vehicle. Vehicle routing is defined by a user-defined language of rules of
conduct, which makes the model more flexible and adaptable. PARAMICS is distinguished among
similar systems by high-performance visualization of the modeling process and scalability of software.
In order to compare the above software products we propose to highlight the following parameters
for the transport network analysis: weather conditions (1), location of parking spaces (2), unorganized
parked cars (3), public transport (4), static route management (5), dynamic route management (6),
autonomous vehicles (7), adaptive speed control system (8), pedestrians (9). The functionality of
software products is noted in Table 1 with "+" sign. The last three factors are not implemented in
existing software products, but they have a significant impact on traffic performance indicators and are
offered for implementation in the simulation tool built using AnyLogic.
Table 1: Comparison of the functionality of modeling packages
Software DRACULA AIMSUN2 VISSIM CORSIM PARAMICS
1 - + - - +
2 - - - + +
3 - - + + -
4 + + + + +
5 - + - - +
6 - + - - +
7 - - - - -
8 - - - - -
9 - - - - -
Stakeholders of the transport infrastructure development project should be taken into account,
which have a significant impact on the stages of the life cycle: initiation, planning, implementation,
monitoring and completion. The classification and characteristics of stakeholders of transport
infrastructure development projects are presented in Table 2.
Table 2: Classification and characteristics of stakeholders of projects of transport infrastructure
№ Stakeholders Characteristics Expectations Needs
1 2 3 4 5
The desire to live among
the developed transport
People living in the territorial Satisfactory condition of
1 Local population infrastructure of the city,
community the surrounding area
without threats to life and
health
Represented by numerous
Non- To improve living
groups of socially active To control the social
2 governmental standards. To Maintain
citizens who pursue certain processes of people's lives
organizations the achieved results
political, social or other goals.
Management of local
administration, organizations Expect to recoup their Make a profit and some
4 Investors
that allocate loans and grants expenses benefit
for the project
Enterprises that perform To get an order for the
various types of work on the performance of a certain
Partner Efficiency of resource
5 design, construction, operation type of work;
companies usage
of equipment and logistics of To improve infrastructure
the project parameters
Specialists of the relevant
organizations, deputies of local
Waiting for the project To provide an accurate
councils, members of executive
results, interesting work, understanding of the
committees, representatives of
encouraging the project infrastructure risks caused
Project team public organizations, scientific
6 leader, assistance from by their activities; reduce
members institutions working on the
the management and the number of resources
implementation of the project
employees of the used in the implementation
and representing the interests
organization of the project;
of various stakeholders of the
project
Employees of local
To meet their needs for a
administrations who participate Waiting for profitable
full life; to realize their
7 Employees in the project in accordance wages. Expectations of
creative and intellectual
with the range of their official career growth
potential
duties
Expectations to increase Satisfy their production and
Enterprises that carry out their
their competitiveness, financial needs;
communal activities on the
8 Utilities reduce the negative to improve the
territory of the territorial
consequences of its infrastructural parameters
community
activities of production
Cover television, radio, To provide the population
Have permissions to
cinema; print media and other with information about
freely disseminate
9 Mass media information resources and everything related to the
information, without
serve as dissemination of public life of the
interference
various information community
Organizations that carry out Waiting for compliance
Examination public or state examination of with the requirements of To get the necessary and
10
bodies an infrastructure project or its the legislation in the full documentation
specific components development of the
project documentation
To form an open
Compliance with the
communication policy as a
Department of Ecology and requirements of national
Environmental basis for trust, to
11 Natural Resources of the and international
authorities implement a policy ready
Regional State Administration regulations on
for discussions in relations
environmental safety
with various public groups
Waiting for the
Heads, deputy heads and heads implementation of their
Be sure that they have
Local of departments of local ideas
achieved their goal;
12 administration administrations. Responsible Expectations of career
Meet their needs for a full
management for making the most important growth
life
decisions for the organization Waiting for profitable
wages
Expectations to increase
Enterprises that carry out their To meet their production
their competitiveness,
Production production activities on the and financial needs;
13 reduce negative
enterprises territory of municipal To improve infrastucture
consequences of their
formation parameters of production
activities
For effective management of stakeholders, it is advisable to analyze the life cycle of transport
infrastructure development. The map can be created at the project planning stage and applied at all
subsequent stages of the project life cycle for monitoring and adjustment. An example of the dynamics
of stakeholder engagement and interaction is shown in Fig. 3.
According to the PMBOK methodology, there are four main stages of the project life cycle.
Suppose that at the stages of concept and planning, the same composition of stakeholders participates
in the project, therefore, in Figure 3 we have three different graphs of stakeholder interaction
according to the stages of the project life cycle.
At the planning stage the content of works is formed and a project plan is drawn up, which will be
implemented by the team. The project team consists of: project manager, contractors, investor, local
population and authorities. The model-diagram of the life cycle is presented in Fig. 3.
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Dynamics
Task 1
Authorit
ies
Mana
Investor
Task 2 Team ger
Controllin
project g body
Communit Enterprise
y s
... Realization
Investor contractor
communit
Task N Manager
y
Planning realization closure
Monitoring and control Stages of the life
cycle
Figure 3: The life cycle of attracting stakeholders of the transport project
The definition of risks in the infrastructure project should include negative events and their size in
monetary terms, which reflect them, as well as accompanying losses or losses. The considered
circumstances can be provoked by mistakes in the design process, shortcomings in the process of
substantiation of necessity of construction of concrete objects, and also inefficient management of the
project at each of stages of a project cycle. Adhering to the definition of risk and in order to improve
the efficiency of their management, it is necessary to define the essence and specify the concept of
"risk factor".
In accordance with the modern concept and specifics of risk management of transport construction,
risk management should be preventive in nature, ie aimed at ensuring that this risk event could not
occur, or its impact was predictable and minimal. Life cycle phases, types and possible risk options are
presented in table 3.
Table 3: Classification of risks in the implementation of transport infrastructure project
Project life cycle
phases Types of risks Possible risk options
Incorrectly determined Underestimation of the volume of traffic;
volume of traffic Revaluation of the volume of traffic.
Risk of insufficient Absence of actual normative legal acts operating
regulatory support on the territory of Ukraine;
The risk of obtaining a negative opinion of
examinations; Insufficient level of competence of
Project risks technical task developers;
Insufficient level of competence of project
Pre investment phase
documentation developers.
Risk of negative attitude of the population;
Risks in the coordination Archaeological risks;
of areas for construction The risk of choosing the suboptimal option as a
result of opposition from landowners.
The risk of underestimating the presence of
Risk of inconsistency "bottlenecks";
Outpacing growth in housing construction.
Underfunding risk;
Risk of increased costs during
Financial risks
construction; Bankruptcy risk of
project participants.
Risk of withdrawal of foreign partners from the
project; Occurrence of protest measures;
Political risks
Risk of refusal of foreign partners in the supply of
Investment phase materials and equipment.
The risk of reducing the quality of work
performed;
The risk of increasing the duration of work on the
Construction risks
project;
Risk of non implementation of design decisions;
Logistics risks.
Reduction of transport potential;
Operational risks
Depreciation or absence of operating fleet.
Risk of errors in forecasting the need for
Risk of lack of qualified qualified personnel;
Operational phase
personnel Risk of inefficient use of qualified personnel;
Reassessment of human resources.
Risk of man-made emergencies;
Environmental risks
Risk of environmental degradation.
On the example of Lviv city, a section of the road network has been selected for experimental
research. Using discrete-event modeling methods, the sample of a transport network was implemented,
which includes the following elements: a road part with an unregulated crossroad, which are guided by
the rules of passage of unregulated crossroads and road markings, vehicles that are controlled in the
simulation process using the created script in Java language. An important functionality of any
software to simulate traffic is collection of information about the condition on the road during
modeling. The implemented example allows to collect information about the longest length of the
queue on any section of the transport network.
To conduct the experiment, a transport network has been chosen, which is represented on Figure 4.
Modeling on transport networks with one and two lanes in each direction and a different number of
cars was carried out, which made it possible to collect data about the maximum length of the queue in
transport network.
Figure 4: Part of transport network of the infrastructure project
To demonstrate the convenience of usage of district-event modeling and the Java programming
language, consider how the machine interacts with objects on the road. Using the built-in Main
component –Type of agent, we receive information about all objects that are on our path, their type
and distance between them. Using the following code: main, Travel time. Add (time() – Time of
appearance); we can get the following information shown in Figure 5. The collected data provide a
possibility to investigate the critical parameters of the transport network.
Figure 5: Modeling data of critical parameters of infrastructure project
4. Conclusion
The scientific and applied task of management of projects for the development of transport
infrastructure of urban territorial systems by means of intellectual modeling are examined in the
article. The state of transport infrastructure of Ukraine is analyzed. The interested participants of the
project for the development of transport infrastructure and their features are classified. The model-
scheme of interaction of stakeholders on different stages of the life cycle has been developed. The
proposed classification aims to promote efficiency risk management in the process of implementing
transport infrastructure projects. The effect will be achieved through the ability of management
services to focus on specific risk factors inherent in this stage of the project. Local factors are a
constant source of risks, primarily this applies to counterparties operating in supply chains. For
example, research in the field of transport infrastructure project management has shown that working
with contracts plays an important role in risk management. Also, external and internal factors and
processes can act as sources of risk. Meanwhile, their influence is reflected in the cost and term of the
project. Limiting the range of sources that trigger the emergence of critical risks will allow you to
concentrate efforts on controlling their impact and choosing the best management methods. On the
example of the transport infrastructure of Lviv city has been established that through to the software
containing the simulation module, it is possible to effectively design infrastructure projects, programs
and portfolios of projects that will adhere to the agreed deadlines, budget and scope of work at the
implementation stage.
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