=Paper= {{Paper |id=Vol-3421/paper6 |storemode=property |title=Conflict Analysis in the “Subject-to-Subject” Security System |pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3421/paper6.pdf |volume=Vol-3421 |authors=Svitlana Shevchenko,Yuliia Zhdanova,Halina Shevchenko,Оlena Nehodenko,Svitlana Spasiteleva |dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/cpits/ShevchenkoZSNS23 }} ==Conflict Analysis in the “Subject-to-Subject” Security System== https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3421/paper6.pdf
Conflict Analysis in the “Subject-to-Subject” Security
System
Svitlana Shevchenko1, Yuliia Zhdanova1, Halina Shevchenko2, Оlena Nehodenko3,
аnd Svitlana Spasiteleva1
1
  Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University, 18/2 Bulvarno-Kudriavska str., Kyiv, 04053, Ukraine
2
  The National University of Ostroh Academy, 2 Seminarska str., Ostroh, 35800, Ukraine
3
  State University of Telecommunications, 7 Solomyanska str., Kyiv, 03110, Ukraine

                Abstract
                The concept of conflict theory is widely used in various sectors of society. This study examines
                the problem of using the main provisions of the theory of conflicts in the field of information
                security. With the development of information technologies, the risk of information conflicts
                is increasing, which can create threats to the integrity, availability, and confidentiality of
                information, which determines the relevance and importance of this research. The presented
                work is a continuation of developments describing the applied aspects of the theory of conflict
                theory in information security systems through the interaction of data streams in the “subject—
                subject” perspective. It is proposed to analyze the problem at four levels: the level of the
                individual (criminal—user); business level (internal and/or external violator—company
                manager); state level (violators/hackers—state institutions, state officials); the level of
                international relations (states, a group of subjects/hackers—institutions and/or political leaders
                of another state). Each level is defined as a complex conflict system that has a corresponding
                structure and stages. It was determined that the main characteristics of an information conflict
                in cyberspace are: unlimited territory, globality, the problem of attribution, and the superiority
                of attack over defense. It is substantiated that information security systems have all the features
                of complex conflict systems, which implies the application of the mathematical theory of
                conflict, namely, the Lotka-Volterra “predator—predator” model and the conflict triad model.
                The innovative function of information conflict is determined. The concept of conflict theory
                is widely used in various sectors of society. This study examines the problem of using the main
                provisions of the theory of conflicts in the field of information security. With the development
                of information technologies, the risk of information conflicts is increasing, which can create
                threats to the integrity, availability, and confidentiality of information, which determines the
                relevance and importance of this research.

                Keywords 1
                Conflict, information conflict, information security systems, cyber system, cyber conflict,
                conflict structure, conflict stages, mathematical model of conflict.

1. Introduction                                                                       impossible without disagreements, confron-
                                                                                      tations, contradictions, and conflicts.
                                                                                          More and more scientists are turning to
    Our society, in the center of which is a person
                                                                                      theoretical and practical developments in conflict
and his activities, is a complex dynamic system,
                                                                                      theory. This is connected not only with the
which is characterized by many connections,
                                                                                      problem of studying man as a conflicted creature,
interactions, and relations in different spheres and
                                                                                      but also with the growing tension in various
at different levels. Existence in such a system is
                                                                                      spheres of social interaction of the participants of
                                                                                      the organization, the state, and the world.

CPITS 2023: Workshop on Cybersecurity Providing in Information and Telecommunication Systems, February 28, 2023, Kyiv, Ukraine
EMAIL: s.shevchenko@kubg.edu.ua (S. Shevchenko); y.zhdanova@kubg.edu.ua (Y. Zhdanova); halyna.shevchenko@oa.edu.ua
(H. Shevchenko); negodenkoav@i.ua (O. Nehodenko); s.spasitielieva@kubg.edu.ua (S. Spasiteleva)
ORCID: 0000-0002-9736-8623 (S. Shevchenko); 0000-0002-9277-4972 (Y. Zhdanova); 0000-0002-8717-4358 (H. Shevchenko); 0000-
0001-6645-1566 (O. Nehodenko); 0000-0003-4993-6355 (S. Spasiteleva)
             ©️ 2023 Copyright for this paper by its authors.
             Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
             CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)



                                                                                 56
    There is no unequivocal opinion about the                      information is a strategic resource, the value of
concept of “conflict”. In modern literature, there                 which acquires especially in the process of
are more than a dozen different definitions of                     creation, therefore it needs to be protected.
conflict. All of them have the right to exist                      2. Information conflicts as conflicts in
because each emphasizes one or more                                information systems between implemented
characteristics of this multifaceted phenomenon.                   programs or in telecommunication systems
    For the term “conflict” we come across several                 between radio-electronic means and security
synonyms: clash of opposing interests, and views;                  systems.
a sharp dispute; extreme aggravation of                            3. Cyber conflicts are part of international
contradictions, which leads to complications or                    information conflicts and are most often
acute struggle [1]. However, contradiction and                     associated with information wars, cyber
conflict should not be equated. Contradiction                      espionage, and cyber operations.
(opposite as its component) is a defining feature                  It is substantiated that it is advisable to
of any phenomenon or event. Contradictions turn                consider the coverage of this problem through the
into conflict if their level increases to a critical           interaction of the planes of the theory of conflict
limit and at the same time a subject is formed,                theory and the theory of information and
which will deliberately exacerbate them in its                 cybernetic security in three perspectives:
interests [2].                                                     ● “subject—subject” or “person—person”,
    At the same time, the authors of the study [3]                 possibly “group of people—group of people”,
emphasize that outside the subjects and                            “person—group of people”.
independently of them there are contradictions,                    ● “subject—object” or “man—machine”.
but not conflicts. The concept of conflict is not a                ● “object—object” or “machine—machine”.
fixation, but a qualification of the state of relations
                                                                   Within the scope of this article, it is intended
in a certain situation, which defines conflict as an
                                                               to consider the applied aspects of the theory of
assessment of the nature of interaction. Such a
                                                               conflict theory in information security systems
definition makes it possible to preserve the name
                                                               through the interaction of data flows from the
conflict for situations of the opposition of the
                                                               perspective of “subject—subject”. In particular,
parties to each other, which are traditionally called
                                                               analyze the issues at four levels:
conflict, and at the same time to extend this
                                                                   1. Personality level (criminal—user)
concept to situations of incompatibility of certain
                                                                   2. Business level (internal and/or external
elements in the composition of the whole [3, p.
                                                                   offender—company manager)
41]. This interpretation will allow us to describe
                                                                   3. State level (violators/hackers—state
conflicts of various natures, for example, a
                                                                   institutions, state officials)
conflict of immunities, a conflict between
                                                                   4. The level of international relations (states,
software and a security system, and others.
                                                                   a group of subjects/hackers—institutions
    The transition of society to the information age
                                                                   and/or political leaders of another state).
gave rise to innovative conflicts—informational.
Modern informational conflicts have significantly
transformed on both the micro and macro levels:                2. Mathematical Models of “Subject-
starting from communication in social networks                    Subject” Information Conflict
and ending with cyberespionage, cyberattacks,
cyberwars, and involvement of non-state actors in                   Conflict is a very complex system with
relations in the international arena. With the                 adaptive structures and evolutionary mechanisms.
development of information technologies, the risk              It is a system made up of interconnected parts that,
of new conflicts that may threaten the integrity,
                                                               as a whole, exhibit properties that cannot be easily
availability, and confidentiality of information
                                                               understood just by disassembling and analyzing
increases [4–6].                                               the properties of the individual components. A
    The beginning of the discussion of these                   deep understanding of conflicts requires, on the
aspects of the analysis of information conflicts in            one hand, a systems thinking approach, and on the
security systems was presented by us in the study              other, a combination of many social and scientific
[7]. The analysis of the literature made it possible
                                                               disciplines [8]. The analysis of analytical reports
to determine the following approaches to the                   and scientific literature confirms the fact that
definition of conflicts in security systems:                   together with the development of hardware and
    1. Information conflicts as a part of conflicts            software means of information protection, the
    in various spheres and industries, since


                                                          57
number of malicious software that allows one                   Protected,
subject (group) to gain unauthorized access to the             𝑝2 is the probability that an attacker will obtain
information resources of another subject                    the information,
(institution) is growing rapidly. As a result of the           𝑝3 is the probability that an attacker will not be
implementation of such a threat, information                able to obtain the information,
protection is violated, and its destruction and/or
                                                               𝑝4 is the probability that an attacker has
theft, loss of integrity, availability, and
                                                            sufficient potential to breach the user’s protection.
confidentiality are possible. The interaction of
these parties is conflictual. The modern theory of             However, the presented model is of a
conflict systems allows for building and                    generalized nature, since this information security
researching models of real processes using the              system is not isolated from others and is in a
mathematical theory of conflict. In this case, we           complex relationship with them. To bring the
will use the well-known “prey—predator” model,              model closer to real data, various modifications
which is based on a system of two first-order               are used. Thus, work [14] presents an approach
ordinary differential equations. The equation was           where x and y are vector values:
proposed independently by scientists Alfred                                  𝑥 = (𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , . . . , 𝑥𝑛 ),
James Lotka and Vito Volterra in 1925 and 1926
                                                                       𝑦 = (𝑦1 , 𝑦2 , . . . , 𝑦𝑛 ), 𝑛 > 1.
[9]. The classical Lotka-Volterra “predator—
prey” mathematical model is used in many fields                 Therefore, the values x and y can be
of science and technology due to its successful             represented not only by the volume of information
combination of relatively low complexity and                but also by other characteristics of the security
strong nonlinearity. The model has a high degree            system.
of universality when describing the behavior of                 The model can also be improved by
complex systems operating in the mode of self-              introducing the delay time of the argument t, the
oscillations [10, 11]. It should be noted the               value of which is determined by the method of
existence of spot developments for the                      experimental selection.
implementation of this model in the security
                                                                The next conflict system that can be modeled
system [12–13].
    In general, the model looks as follows:                 in security systems is the conflict triad model [15].
                                                            The dynamic model of the conflict triad is a model
                 𝑑𝑥
                    = (𝑝1 − 𝑝2 y)𝑥,                         that is defined by the interaction between three
               { 𝑑𝑡                                         natural substances: the population of a biological
                 𝑑𝑦
                     = (−𝑝3 + 𝑝4 y)𝑥,                       species (life), the environment (resource of
                 𝑑𝑡                                         existence), and negative factors for existence
where 𝑥 is the amount of information available to           (virus).
the user and interest to the attacker,                          Let’s apply the described model to the security
    𝑦 is the amount of information obtained by              system. Let us denote by P, R, Q substances that
hacking,                                                    exist in a common space and interact with each
    𝑡 is the duration of the process,                       other in a certain way. Then, in the conflict system
    𝑝1 is the probability that the volume of                of the “subject—subject” security system, we get
information of interest to the attacker is well             the following subsystems at different levels (see
                                                            Table 1):
Table 1
Substances in the conflict triad of information security
    Subject—            Space 𝜴          Substance 𝑷             Substance 𝑹               Substance 𝑸
   subject level
                       Information         Company              Technical, legal,    Anthropogenic sources of
   Business level
                          system        management            organizational tools           threats
                       Information      State figures,
                                                                Technical, legal,    Anthropogenic sources of
    State level      system of state          state
                                                              organizational tools           threats
                        institutions     institutions
    International                      Politicians, state                              Any subject (group of
                      Virtual space                               All existing
   relations level                       institutions                                subjects) of another state



                                                       58
   Interdependence between substances P, R, Q                     2.1. Subject—Subject Informational
[15] is depicted by the diagram in Figure 1, where
                                                                  Conflict: The Level of the Individual
an arrow with a certain sign corresponds to the
direction of positive or negative dependence of
                                                                      The birth of the Internet in 1989 caused a rapid
one substance on another.
                                                                  growth of computer equipment, in particular,
                                                                  personal. The use of the World Wide Web led to
                                                                  the creation of new interactions and relationships
                         P                                        between people—virtual, the era of digital society
                                                                  began. Persons, relationships, and social
                                                                  institutions are formed by both software and
               –                      –                           hardware [16]. Along with this, where there are
                   +              +                               new social facts, new habits, new ways to meet,
                                                                  buy, pay, store, protect, and transfer assets, new
                                                                  digital identities, and new systems for gathering
                                                                  information, it is only natural that new crimes
          Q                  –            R                       appear, related to information technologies [17].
                             –                                        According to an analytical report [18] in 2022,
                                                                  the frequency of email attacks has increased to
                                                                  reach 86% of all file-based in-the-wild attacks,
                                                                  Zip files are the most common format for hiding
Figure 1: Interdependence between substances                      malware, Joker mobile malware, which accesses
                                                                  contact lists by hiding in at least 8 Google Store
    Two-way pairwise interdependence “plus-
                                                                  apps, has been downloaded more than 3 million
minus” is an analog of the “prey-predator” model.
                                                                  times, allowing attackers to obtain relevant
Interdependence “minus-minus” models the
                                                                  information. accesses users’ contact lists and
conflict struggle of irreconcilable alternative
                                                                  sends information to attackers. Every day, the
substances (anthropogenic source of threats—
                                                                  AV-TEST Institute registers more than 450,000
security policy).
                                                                  new malicious programs (malware) and
    The conflict triad is a complex dynamic system
                                                                  potentially unwanted programs (PUAs), in the last
since each of the three substances has an internal
                                                                  year there have been about 70 million malicious
structure                     𝑃 = (𝑃1 , 𝑃2 , . . . , 𝑃𝑛 ),
                                                                  programs for Windows, which is 5000 times more
𝑅 = (𝑅1 , 𝑅2 , . . . , 𝑅𝑛 ), 𝑄 = (𝑄1 , 𝑄2 , . . . , 𝑄𝑛 ).
                                                                  than for macOS (where only about 12,000
    Also, all the formulas for the interaction of
                                                                  samples) and 60 times more than the
each substance with a pair of others are different
                                                                  corresponding figures for Linux (2 million
from each other: P with a pair {𝑄, 𝑅}, 𝑄 with a
                                                                  samples) [19]. Thus, in the information sphere, a
pair {𝑃, 𝑅}, 𝑅 with a pair {𝑃, 𝑄}.
                                                                  conflict situation is defined, as one which was
    The formulas defining the dynamic system of
                                                                  intentionally created by one of the parties
the conflict triad are given in [15].
                                                                  (criminal) to achieve their goals or orders.
    The nature of things in the world is such that
                                                                      An information conflict in “subject-subject”
any conflict process is endless. In each act, the
                                                                  security systems at the “criminal-user” level is the
conflict transforms the content of the
                                                                  result of the process of the criminal overcoming
contradiction into a new, possibly hidden, form.
                                                                  the resistance of the protection means of the user’s
From the point of view of mathematics, this means
                                                                  information system, which enables the loss of
a change in the spectral structure of the conflicting
                                                                  confidentiality, availability, and integrity of
distributions.
                                                                  information.
    It should be noted that managing information
                                                                      Such a conflict occurs in the user’s information
conflict in information security systems is a major
                                                                  system, usually two participants (however, there
problem today. This is explained by the fact that
                                                                  may be a third person—the customer). The
in the virtual space, criminals have unprecedented
                                                                  duration of such a conflict is determined by the
opportunities to mask their actions, as a result—
                                                                  strength of the defenses and capabilities of the
their impunity. The geography and time of such
                                                                  attacker. Table 2 presents the stages of this
conflicts are unlimited.
                                                                  conflict.




                                                             59
Table 2                                                       cause material losses and/or reputational losses
Stages of information conflict at the attacker-               of the organization [20].
user level                                                        As the 2022 Cost of Insider Threats: Global
  Stages          Description                                 Report reveals, insider threat incidents have risen
                                                              44% over the past two years, with costs per
                  Creating malicious software on              incident up more than a third to $15.38 million;
      The
                  purpose (using someone else’s)              the cost of credential theft to organizations
  emergence
                  to achieve one’s goals (revenge,            increased 65% from $2.79 million in 2020 to
  of a conflict
                  financial     gain,   emotional             $4.6 million at present; the time to contain an
   situation
                  satisfaction)                               insider threat incident increased from 77 days to
                                                              85 days, leading organizations to spend the most
                  The attacker deliberately and               on containment [21].
     Latent       actively       searches    for                  The authors [22] propose to consider the
      stage       vulnerabilities in the user’s               portrait of an insider from the point of view of
                  information system                          psychological characteristics and activities: low-
                                                              class and high-class insiders. The activities of
                  Destruction,            forgery,            low-class insiders have been exposed and
  Active stage    modification, blocking, theft of            punished. The profile of such a violator includes
                  information                                 the following features: these people do not have
                                                              high-quality technical education; worked in
  The stage of    The user provides redemption;               various positions; are motivated by personal gain
   ending the     acts through the legal field; loses         and are influenced by emotions; are not aware of
    conflict      information                                 the potential negative consequences of their
                                                              actions; their behavior arouses suspicion on the
                                                              part of colleagues.
   Regulation of this conflict is possible at a latent            High-class insiders see their malicious
stage, if the user has a high level of information            mission as their career decision. The portrait of
protection, following the basic rules: password               such a violator is high-quality professional
management; use of at least two-factor                        abilities, diligence, reliability, leadership, and
authentication; use of licensed antivirus                     dedication. Such insiders are very dangerous.
programs; control over personal information                   The structure and stages of the informational
transmitted over the Internet; avoiding the use of            conflict are different for each of these types. The
public Wi-Fi networks.                                        description is presented in Table 3 and Table 4.
                                                              Table 3
2.2. Subject-Subject                 Information              Stages of information conflict at the level of an
Conflict: Business Level                                      internal employee (low-class insider)—the head
                                                              of the company
    The direction of our research will further be                    Stages                    Description
directed to the analysis of possible conflict                                         An unfair decision by the
situations between the head of the company and                 The emergence of       manager, resentment, and
a subordinate in the context of the existence of               a conflict situation   lack of respect, as a result of
an information conflict, which causes a violation                                     the desire for revenge
of the information protection system.
    Information conflict in security systems                                          Unauthorized/privileged
“subject-subject” at the level of business                       Latent stage
                                                                                      access to IS
“internal employee—manager” is defined as the
result of an employee’s insider activity, which                                       The violator was found and
                                                                  Active stage
led to a violation of the security policy in the                                      detained
company’s information system.
    Insider   activity—directed     actions    of                 The stage of        Firing from a job; punishment
motivated subjects who have legitimate access to               ending the conflict    by law
information assets and skills to obtain valuable
information, know the vulnerabilities of
information systems and business processes, to


                                                         60
Table 4                                                              The current stage is characterized by the
Stages of information conflict at the level of an                introduction of mixed systems and methods of
internal employee (high-class insider)—the head                  detecting insider threats [20]. Scientists are trying
of the company                                                   to combine two approaches in this direction:
    Stages                    Description                            ● Psychosocial approach, the basis of which
 Emergence
                                                                     is the analysis of the mental and emotional
                 The temptation to get hidden profit;                states of employees, and it is possible to predict
 of a conflict
                 sharp sensations; boasting                          the behavior of an insider.
  situation
    Latent       Unauthorized/privileged access to                   ● Continuous monitoring in the network.
     stage       IS                                                  A large business has the material resources to
                 Loss of confidentiality, integrity,             implement software products to detect insider
    Active       and availability of information                 threats, for example, the CHAMPION system
    stage        (material and reputational damage               (Columnar Hierarchical Autoassociative Memory
                 to the organization)                            Processing in Ontological Networks), small and
                 The possibility of purchasing                   medium-sized businesses practically do not deal
   The stage
                 information; actions through the                with this issue. In this regard, we offer the
   of ending
                 legal field; involvement of third               following recommendations regarding the
  the conflict
                 parties in negotiations                         possible forecasting of conflicts in the company’s
                                                                 information security. This process is based on two
    It should be noted that an insider can be an                 components:
external actor, for example, a former employee,                      1. Software for determining the user’s
whose motive may be revenge for, in his opinion,                     computer activity, the main of which is:
unfair dismissal from work.                                          ● Role-based access policy.
    An information conflict is also possible if the                  ● Restrictions on data transmission and
insider activity was unintentional, but the loss of the              copying.
company’s information data occurred. Moreover,                       ● Using MPI (Microsoft Purview Insider or
the manager learned about this event after this                      DLP (Digital Light Processing).
incident. The structure of such a conflict does not
contain a latent stage, since the informational                      2. Psychological methods for personality
conflict has occurred. The stage of the end of the                   profiling can be used:
conflict is the punishment of the employee (verbal                   • “Big Five” test
or written penalty, material penalty, dismissal from                 • Test “Ability to self-govern”
work).                                                               • Individual psychological test.
    The conflict struggle is most often caused by a                  As a result of processing the obtained results,
primitive perception of reality, as if one of the parties        if everything is satisfactory, then there is constant
is capable of winning, and the other—is defeated.                monitoring of the information system on the one
There is some redistribution of the spectral                     hand and training with employees on the other.
characteristics of the opposing sides in the conflict.           Otherwise, the security policy should be further
The victorious gain in one aspect means inevitable               reviewed and additional methods of detecting and
loss, defeat, and loss in another. The essence of the            countering insiders should be added. Fig. 2
contradiction is transformed and appears again in the            presents the algorithm of this process.
future at another level of gradation of the complex                  Therefore, increasing investments in the
structure of interests [14]. This process is                     company’s information security will reduce the
demonstrated by an example of a dismissed                        likelihood of information conflicts. However,
employee. Therefore, it is important to understand               companies stop at a level of rational investment
the problem of conflict prevention. The authors of               that is equal to or less than the expected losses
the study [23] proposed three approaches to                      from a hack. This leads to a gap in investments
detecting insider threats:                                       (Fig. 3) in the cyber defense of companies [24].
    ● Sociological,          psychological,          and         Special measures of the government would allow
    organizational.                                              the filling of this delta. For example, to subsidize
    ● Socio-technical.                                           equipment, software, and training, and increase
    ● Technical.                                                 the number of cyber specialists who know how to
                                                                 work with systems, programs, and equipment and
    In our opinion, this will make it possible to stop
                                                                 ensure the functioning of all these components.
the informational conflict before the active stage.



                                                            61
                                                          Approaches to information
                                                             conflict resolution


                                   Requirements for the                           Psychological and diagnostic
                                   Organization’s IS to                           testing of behavior
                                   determine activity




                                                                                                                       Trainings and cooperation
        Continuous IS monitoring




                                   1. Access policy based on roles
                                   and their needs to perform
                                                                                  1. Individual psychological tests.
                                   official functions
                                                                                  2. “Big five” test.
                                   2. Limitation of data
                                                                                  3. The “Ability to
                                   transmission and copying.
                                                                                  self-governance” test
                                   3. Using MS Purview
                                   Insider or DLP



                                                                       Result
                                                                     processing


                                          No
                                                              Is it satisfactory?

                                                                               Yes

                                                                   Acception


Figure 2: Approaches to the resolution of informational conflicts at the level of an insider-head of
the company



                                          1



         Rational
      Investment Level




         Minimum
     Risk Level Possible
                                                      Maximum                   Investment in information Security
                                                      Investment


Figure 3: Rational Investment Level




                                                                          62
2.3. Information Conflict “Subject- approach, as the tools needed to respond are
                                    often in the hands of others [24, 25]. This
to-Subject”: State Level            cooperation should include specialized
                                                                information and cyber security firms, IT
   Information conflict in security systems                     companies, hardware companies, banks and
“subject-subject” at the level of the state
                                                                financial sector entities, politicians and
“hackers—state institutions, state officials” is the
process of resisting hacker attacks on the                      members of government, and private entities.
information systems of critical infrastructure                  The effectiveness of work is monitored
objects of the state, as a result of which there is a           through reporting and transparency of their
possible disruption of the functioning of data                  activities, which will reduce the likelihood of
about objects                                                   information conflicts.
   It should be noted that most of the incidents are
disclosed by the relevant state structures. Table 5             2.4. Information Conflict “Subject—
presents the structure of this conflict.
                                                                Subject”: International Relations
Table 5
Stages of information conflict at the level of                  Level
hackers—state institutions, statesmen
     Stages                    Description                          The relevance of the issue of information
                     Preparation for a cyber attack             conflict at the level of international relations is
                  on critical infrastructure facilities.        confirmed by a large number of studies in the field
      The
                  Motivation:                                   of politics, law, military affairs, and cyber security
 emergence of
                   - material component                         [26–35].
   a conflict
                   - sharp sensations                               Analysis of the literature made it possible to
   situation
                   - leadership.                                identify the following features and characteristics
                                                                of information conflict in security systems:
                  Unauthorized interference (use of                 ● the geography of the conflict (in
                  malicious software);                              traditional battles, the defender has an
  Latent stage    bribery of insiders; blackmail of
                                                                    advantage due to his knowledge of the terrain
                  politicians.
                                                                    and the direction of the attack, in the cyber
                  Violation          of       integrity             world these advantages disappear, since states
                  (manipulation       of    data     or             often do not know where the attack will come
                  introduction of data to influence                 from or even if an attack is happening [30]).
                  the political and economic                        ● the globality of the conflict (in any
                  activities of the government).                    conflict, cyberattacks quickly become global
                  Violation of availability (refusal to             as secretly acquired or hacked computers and
  Active stage    service critical infrastructure                   servers around the world are brought into
                  objects).                                         action [30]).
                  Violation      of     confidentiality             ● responsibility for the conflict (in the
                  (extraction of personal data of                   digital sphere, identifying perpetrators is more
                  members of the government,                        difficult: most states deny any involvement in
                  political figures; espionage).                    actions that can be considered military in
                                                                    cyberspace; it is easy to hide behind proxies,
                  If the active stage has taken place,
                  then a violation of the regular
                                                                    raise false flags and act on behalf of another
                  mode of operation of the critical
                                                                    person [27, 31]).
  The stage of    infrastructure object.                            ● an imbalance between offense and
   ending the     In the opposite case: the use of                  defense (a single weak point may be enough
    conflict      the legal field, meeting the                      for an attacker to enter systems and networks
                  requirements of the opposite                      to achieve their goals, while defenders need to
                  party                                             guard many systems, often without adequate
                                                                    resources [27, 28, 31]).
   Combating online threats requires the state                      An information conflict in security systems
to go beyond the whole government paradigm                      “subject-subject” at the international level “states,
and adopt a public-private partnership                          a group of subjects/hackers—institutions and/or


                                                           63
political leaders of another state” is called the                  The increase in the number of information
process of confrontation between subjects of                   conflicts at the international level is especially
international relations in cyberspace, where                   intensified during the period of armed conflicts
offensive means and techniques of subjects of one              between states. Thus, cyberattacks on the
state are aimed at information systems of critical             Ukrainian government and the military sector
infrastructure objects of another state, as a result           increased by 196% in the first three days of the
of which it is possible to disrupt the functioning of          Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine [18.
these objects.
Table 6                                                        3. Conclusions
Stages of information conflict at the level of the
state, groups of subjects—institutions, political                 Summarizing the above, we have the following
figures of another state                                       results:
     Stages                   Description                         1. The study of information conflicts from
                Preparation of a cyber attack on                  the point of view of information and cyber
                critical infrastructure facilities of             security is relevant and important since the
                another state. Motivation:                        relationships between participants in the
                -          disruption of functioning              virtual space are completely different.
                and destruction of critical                       2. When analyzing information conflicts in
                infrastructure: power grids,                      cyberspace, the following key issues should be
                production and distribution of oil                considered:
      The
                and gas; logistics networks;                        ● the problem of attribution (anonymity of
 emergence of
                telecommunications;         financial               the created cyber attack, it is difficult to
   a conflict
                sector; services.                                   distinguish different types of actors,
   situation
              -      a claim to a certain status.                   including states, non-state groups, and
                     Involvement of public and                      individual hackers; the reward is a high level
                private individuals/groups in the                   of information protection).
                formation of a cyberattack.                         ● the advantage of offense over defense
                     Bribery and blackmail of                       (cyberspace encourages offensive strategies
                members of the government and                       as opposed to defensive ones; attackers act
                political figures.                                  without warning, looking for vulnerabilities,
                  Unauthorized interference (use of                 while cyber defense monitoring must be real-
  Latent stage    malicious software); bribery of                   time and constant).
                  insiders; blackmail of politicians.               ● unlimited territory.
                                                                    ● globality.
                  Violation          of       integrity
                  (manipulation       of    data     or           3. Effective prevention of cyber conflicts
                  introduction of data to influence               and their resolution requires public-private
                  the political and economic                      cooperation (involvement of security experts,
                  activities of the government).                  IT technologies, members of the government,
                  Violation of availability (refusal to           and scientists).
  Active stage
                  service critical infrastructure                 4. The creation of mathematical models in
                  objects).                                       the process of analyzing information conflicts
                  Violation      of     confidentiality           in cyber security systems will become an
                  (removal of personal data of                    adequate tool for knowledge, description, and
                  members of the government,                      modeling of real phenomena in this field.
                  political figures. Espionage)                   5. The theory of information conflicts in
                  If the active stage has taken place,            information and cyber security systems has an
                  then a violation of the regular                 innovative character, strengthening the
                  mode of operation of the critical               creation and development of new technologies
  The stage of    infrastructure object.                          for ensuring the integrity, availability, and
   ending the     In the opposite case: the use of                confidentiality of information.
    conflict      the legal field at the international
                  level, and involvement of a third
                  party (state or group of states) in
                  the negotiations.



                                                          64
4. References                                             [12] І. Kononovich, D. Mayevskiy, R. Podobniy,
                                                               Models of System of the Cibersecurity
                                                               Providing with Delay of Reaction on
[1]  V. V. Yaremenko, et. al., New Glossary of
                                                               Incidents, Inf. Math. Methods Simul. 5(4),
     Ukrainian Language in Three Volumes,
                                                               (2015) 339–346.
     Aconite, 1 (2007).
                                                          [13] S. Gorman, et. al., A Predator Prey
[2] M. Piren,       Conflictology:     Textbook.
                                                               Approach to the Network Structure of
     MAUP, Kyiv, (2007).
                                                               Cyberspace, (2004).
[3] A. Girnyk, V. Rezanenko, The Concept of
                                                          [14] S. Yevseiev, et. al., Development of a
     “Conflict” in Western Culture and in the
                                                               Method for Assessing the Security of Cyber-
     Culture of Traditional Societies of the Far
                                                               Physical Systems Based on the Lotka–
     East. Scientific Notes of NaUKMA, 136
                                                               Volterra Model, Eastern-European Journal of
     (2012) 37–42.
                                                               Enterprise Technologies, 5(9) (113) (2021).
[4] M. Vladymyrenko, et al., Analysis of
                                                               doi:10.15587/1729-4061.2021.241638
     Implementation Results of the Distributed
                                                          [15] V. Koshmanenko, Spectral Theory of
     Access Control System. 2019 IEEE
                                                               Dynamic Conflict Systems, Naukova
     International            Scientific-Practical
                                                               Dumka, Kyiv, (2016).
     Conference            Problems             of
                                                          [16] V. Koshmanenko, I. Samoilenko, Model of
     Infocommunications,        Science       and
                                                               a Dynamic System of a Conflict Triad,
     Technology             (2019).           doi:
                                                               Nonlinear Oscillations, 14(1) (2011) 56–
     10.1109/picst47496.2019.9061376
                                                               76. doi:10.1007/s11072-011-0141-5
[5] Y. Sadykov, et al., Technology of Location
                                                          [17] D. Lupton, Digital Sociology (2015) Taylor
     Hiding by Spoofing the Mobile Operator IP
                                                               and Francis. doi: 10.4324/9781315776880-1
     Address, in: IEEE International Conference
                                                          [18] A. Nicola, Towards Digital Organized
     on Information and Telecommunication
                                                               Crime and Digital Sociology of Organized
     Technologies and Radio Electronics (2021)
                                                               Crime. Trends. Organ. Crim. (2022).
     22–25.                                   doi:
                                                               doi:10.1007/s12117-022-09457-y.
     10.1109/UkrMiCo52950.2021.9716700
                                                          [19] Check Point Software’s 2023 Cyber
[6] V. Buriachok, V. Sokolov, P. Skladannyi,
                                                               Security Report, Cyber Security Report.
     Security Rating Metrics for Distributed
                                                          [20] Malware, AV-TEST URL.
     Wireless Systems, in: Workshop of the 8th
                                                          [21] S. Shevchenko, et. al., Іnsiders and Insider
     International Conference on "Mathematics.
                                                               Information: Essence, Threats, Activities
     Information Technologies. Education":
                                                               and Legal Responsibility, Cybersecur.
     Modern Machine Learning Technologies
                                                               Educ. Sci. Technol. 3(15) (2022) 175–185.
     and Data Science, vol. 2386 (2019) 222–
                                                               doi:10.28925/2663-4023.2022.15.175185
     233.
                                                          [22] 2022 Ponemon Cost of Insider Threats
[7] S. Shevchenko, et. al., Study of Applied
                                                               Global Report, Proofpoint US.
     Aspects Ofconflict Theory in Security
                                                          [23] E. Cole, S. Ring. Insider Threat: Protecting
     Systems, Cybersecur. Educ. Sci. Technol.
                                                               the Enterprise from Sabotage, Spying, and
     2(18) (2022) 150-162. doi:10.28925/2663-
                                                               Theft, Elsevier/Syngress, Amsterdam,
     4023.2022.18.150162
                                                               (2005).
[8] G. Gallo, Conflict Theory, Complexity and
                                                          [24] J. Hunker, C. Probst. Insiders and Insider
     Systems Approach, Systs. Res. Behav. Sci.
                                                               Threats: An Overview of Definitions and
     30(2) (2013) 156–175. doi:10.1002/sres.2132
                                                               Mitigation Techniques, J. of Wirel. Mob.
[9] A. Lotka, Elements of Physical Biology,
                                                               Netws. Ubiquitous Comp. Dependable
     Nature        116,        461        (1925).
                                                               Appls.        2(1)       (2011)       4–27.
     doi:10.1038/116461b0 1925
                                                               doi:10.22667/JOWUA.2011.03.31.004
[10] D. Trubetskov, Phenomenon of Lotka-
                                                          [25] S. Castro, Towards the Development of a
     Volterra Mathematical Model and Similar
                                                               Rationalist Cyber Conflict Theory, Cyber
     Models, Izvestiya VUZ, Appl. Nonlinear
                                                               Def. Rev. 6(1) (2021) 35–62.
     Dyn.       19(2)        (2011),       69–88.
                                                          [26] B. Buckland, F. Schreier, T. Winkler.
     doi:10.18500/0869-6632-2011-19-2-69-88
                                                               Democratic Governance Challenges of
[11] A. Bratus’, A. Novozhilov, A. Platonov,
                                                               Cyber Security. DCAF Horizon 2015
     Dynamic Systems and Models of Biology,
                                                               Working Paper, 1 (2015).
     Draft, (2019).



                                                     65
[27] D. Sherengovskij, The Concept and
     Essence of International Conflict in the
     Science of International Relations, Actual
     Problems of Politics, Phoenix, Odesa, 43
     (2011) 98–108.
[28] M. Wohlfeld, J. Jasper, Cyberattacks and
     Cyber Conflict: Where Is Conflict
     Resolution? University of Malta. Centre for
     the Study and Practice of Conflict
     Resolution, (2018) 5–17.
[29] J. Healey, The Five Futures of Cyber
     Conflict and Cooperation. Georgetown J.
     Int. Affs. (2011) 110–117.
[30] M. Intriligator, Research on Conflict
     Theory: Analytic Approaches and Areas
     of Application, J. Confl. Resolut. 26(2)
     (1982)                            307–327.
     doi:10.1177/0022002782026002006
[31] B. Valeriano, R. Maness, What Do We
     Know About Cyber Conflict? Scope,
     Impact, and Restraint in Cyberspace.
[32] R. Inversini, Cyber Peace: And How It
     Can Be Achieved, The Ethics of
     Cybersecurity, Int. Libr. of Eths. Law
     Technol.       21     (2020)      259–276.
     doi:10.1007/978-3-030-29053-5_13
[33] R. Kazansky, Тhe Conflict Theory as a
     Pillar of Security Science, Secur. Sci. J.
     1(2) (2020). doi:10.37458/ssj.1.2.3
[34] H. Lin, Cyber Conflict and International
     Humanitarian Law, Int. Rev. Red Cross,
     94(886)           (2012)          515–531.
     doi:10.1017/S1816383112000811
[35] M. Christen, et. al., A Review of Value-
     Conflicts in Cybersecurity, ORBIT J. 1(1)
     (2017) 1–19. doi:10.29297/ORBIT.V1I1.28
[36] I. Alakbarova, Рroblems Created by
     Cyberconflicts and Methods to Solve
     Them, Probls. Inf. Soc. 2 (2015) 29–33.
     doi:10.25045/jpis.v06.i2.04




                                                   66