Understanding the new digital world naturally requires a suitable approach for proactive identification of future cyber threats in the new mixed reality of people, technologies and biotope symbiotic joining. The paper outlines a methodology for joint exploration of cyber threats, using both expert and machine intellect. Further, a combined assessment is performed on the accomplished results with a simulated futuristic environment, adding human-in-the-loop biometric response. Finally, a wrap-up discussion is performed for the obtained results.
1. Introduction curity from both technological and human perspectives.
Whilst new complex APT attacks [8] are combined with Future security dynamics proper understanding in the the cognitive overload, attention deficit and parallel diginew digital age is already a rather comprehensive objec- tal existence for the humans [9], the technological part tive for direct achievement. In fact, the new extended of this new reality is also challenged with new smart reality, joining virtual, objective, augmented and mixed adversaries. Advanced DDoS attacks, intelligent malperspectives of one and the same security landscape have ware, complex ransomware and imperfection gaps from to be studied from multiple perspectives [1]. Within the the evolving smart systems are severely threatening the last several years, the utopian digital society develop- smart infrastructure. The process becomes obviously hament [2] has been seriously disturbed by several major bitual to the transformed digital lifestyle, especially with stressors: COVID-19 pandemic, new wars (both in Syria the new generations [10, 11]. Soon, it is going to become and in Europe – the Ukrainian ones), resulting refugees’ really dificult to secure the new extended reality without lfaws and asylum seekers [ 3]. Additional social negative the technological advances that however need adequate dynamics with economics, fossil fuels lacking, and tech- smart joining to the human intellect, aiming future diginological microchips deficit, adding also climate changes tal society resilience. Here however the natural boundary doom prognosis are building a really not so bright future of moral, ethics and regulations appear in the security for the new 21-st century beginning [4]. In this sense, the discussion [12]. As though technological progress is certechnological progress of IoTs, AI, robots, avatars, ubiqui- tainly and important moment of our civilization evolutous communications and their accompanying new smart tion, the human advancing (including DNA engineering, services [5] could be considered as a positive moment technological implants & assisted knowledge access) and in the post-information society (by means of a society privacy digitalization (memories, emotions, experiences, with implausible stressors significant transformational etc.) stay of vital importance [6]. The situation could efect) building and transformation. Though this new ex- become even more complex with machines advancing tended reality establishment, considered as an innovative and deeper emersion in our life [13] (taking not only metaverse ideas incubator, the role of the human intellect unpleasant, either dangerous or monotonous jobs [14]), stays dominant [6]. A supportive evidence in this con- aiming singularity (total domination, starting now with text are the social networks advancing with numerous society managing or vital decisions taking) in the not so gadgets (both with Web 3.0 & Web 4.0) but still led and far future [15]. Trying to foresee properly the future of addressing the humans [6]. Evidently, human- machine the post-information age and successfully meeting the interawarding is approaching us indispensably in the utopian and dystopian perspectives of our society transnew era of transhumanization with hybrid physical and formation in the new digital age is of key importance mental capacity augmentations [7]. Going even deeper for studying the security landscape transformation in in this reality, naturally opens the question of cyber se- a proactive and comprehensive manner. Merging both human intellect with machine algorithms, further in the paper a triplet framework approach will be outlined, towards the next 10–15 years, when machines are expected to become smarter but human spices evolutionary change will create a more resilient and sustainable extended reBISEC’22: 13th International Conference on Business Information Security, December 03, 2022, Belgrade, Serbia * Corresponding author. $ zlatogor@bas.bg (Z. Minchev)
© 2023 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License CPWrEooUrckReshdoinpgs IhStpN:/c1e6u1r3-w-0s.o7r3g ACttEribUutRion W4.0oInrtekrnsahtioonpal (PCCroBYce4.0e).dings (CEUR-WS.org) the computational power and memory resources allocation, the alternatives with the diferent dimensions should be mutually exclusive.
The scenario analytical results towards 2037, could be ality, especially for the new, mixed ecosystem security briefly summarized as follows: transcendents successful handling. The most intangible scenarios for the future will address transhumanization and the resulting future digital soci2. Triplet Framework Approach ety reorganization due to the transformation of smart machines, i.e., moving from AI supportive role, to a potenThe presented exploration framework (based on the ideas tially dominant one [6, 18]. Additionally, a federated new from [1], see Figure 1) is considered as a triplet, giving reality is expected to be created due to general resources both forward and backward future assessment, with three access equal limitation, fostered with climate changes diferent perspectives, but: (i) modelling (using expert and technological availability, providing reality mixing and reference data for modelling & analysis), (ii) simu- and total connectivity in an uneven manner. lation (implementing machine algorithms towards the The new social behaviour will be mostly afected by future) and (iii) observation (monitoring biometric set living parallelism and information overload that will cerwith extended realities mix) ones. Finally, some selected tainly require a new hybrid security (joining human & results comparison is presented and discussed. machine intellect) handling with future smart machines and infrastructure significant role [ 1]. However, AI evo2.1. Modelling Perspective lution and IoT deeper immersion in the new ecosystem of humans, machines and biotope will be somewhat boundInitial building of a security landscape, concerning the ing the upcoming human-machine clashes and fostered future digital transformation efects could be achieved by post- information evolution, supporting the establishcombining morphological & system analysis [16]. The ment of a future smart society and people. idea is at first implementing the scenario method, with The tangible scenarios will be mainly related to new expert and reference data, towards the establishment of a smart services and technological innovations aiming a plausible & implausible scenario combinations [17]. The peaceful human-machine coexistence with a fostered ifnal result is a cross-consistency matrix , containing smart economy and new hybrid (addressing both huthree types of scenarios, in accordance with their Rela- mans & machines) regulations necessity that is expected tive Common Weight – : Active (tangible), Passive to successfully handle the new huge data flow but also (intangible) & Neutral (probably most uncertain). challenged with advanced (by means of AI & IoTs) types
The total number * = 136080 ( * = 7 × 6 × 6 × of human-machines clashes. 5 × 4 × 3 × 3 × 3; plausible – 1* = 13420 & implau- Luckily, the total digitalization idea and biohacking are sible ones – 2* = 122660; from 1* are additionally expected to be kept under control, though the ambitious selected: Active, i.e. – “tangible” (11186, > 0), development of AI is already addressing human traits Passive, i.e. – “intangible” (2000, < 0) & Neutral (to note: emotion, creativity, imagination, intuition, etc.) (234, = 0) scenarios) [1]. digitalization [7]. The new hybrid senses advancement
The identified transcends, constructing a scenario sam- [13] is already a fact for the future transhumans [19], ple of interest are encompassing: “Driving Alternative” claiming to support the successful handling of cognitive -> “Challenge Alternative” -> “Adversary Alternative”- overload and digital fatigue in the new hyperreality. > “Divide Alternative” -> “Opportunity Alternative” -> Additionally, neutral scenarios, concerning the un“Ambiguity Alternative” -> “Contradictions Alternative”. planned external impacts could be marked, though quite Whilst the size of the matrix is platform limited with uncertain, also producing potential new stressors, like current
COVID-19 pandemic, either additional other natural or man-made stressors (new wars, refugees’ flaws, natural disasters, etc.) that is going to change the normal society cyclic dynamics, or governance order [3, 20].
Further, adding causality in the modelling perspective, a holistic outlook to the digital transcendents future evolution with the next 10-15 years has been obtained with system-of-systems holistic idea [21].
By implementing Entity-Relationship ( − ) representation and probabilistic Bayesian assessment of the relations weights for efectiveness (studying causality feed-forward efectiveness – and feed-backward – ratio usage), following [9] a resulting 3D System Efectiveness Diagram is giving a resulting model classification towards year 2037 in I-SCIP-EA environment [1]. 2.2. Simulation Perspective
Two main types of model entities resulting classifica- As holistic systems complexity is somewhat conditional tion, with diferent roles are produced as follows: to the transformational context, better understanding of
Perpetual: “Embodied IoTs” – 1, “Internal Drivers” – the models on the future transcendents role, naturally re15, “Joint H-M Regulations” – 18, all three expected to quires a joint consideration of system and morphological be active; “Digital Economy” – 8; “Huge Data” – 11; “Re- analysis results in a dynamic sense. alities Mixing” – 16, “Digital Lifestyle” – 17, “Smart Cul- What however needs to be stated here are the objecture_Religion” – 19, all five expected to be passive; tives for future transformational changes (e.g.: techno
Intermittent: “Advance Robots_Avatars” – 3, “Ubiq- logical domination on humans, resource federated world, uitous AI” – 4, “Smart Markets_Services” – 9, “Hybrid climate changes technological handling) that need to be Security”– 10, “External Impacts”– 14, all five expected stated and evaluated for a feasibility within both scenario to be active; “Transformed People” – 2, “Smart Gover- context and system-of-systems models joining. nance” – 5, “Edutainment” – 6, “Smart Ecosystem” – 7, So, using both human objective beliefs and machine “Digital Transformation” – 12, “Future Media” – 13, all simulations for the future could be fused as follows: six expected to be passive. (i) system models dynamics probabilistic distribution
Obviously, the transcending efects of digital change approximation fitting, based on their relations in the E-R to transformed people, smart governance, edutainment, sense (taking into account the Forrester’s simplifications new smart ecosystem (joining people, technologies & [25]) with a certain time horizon; biotope) and future smart media will be quite uncertain (ii) extending results from (i) with multiple time horiand intermittent – thus rather complicated for efective zons in the Kondratiev sense [26], using a four-cycle stage securing due to multiple social and technical profound interpretation: Prosperity, Recession, Depression, Improvement [9]. The dynamic stochastic assessment with the multiple time horizons could be explored both with base oscillators concept [27] or quantum tunnelling simulation [28], in case of preliminary order S-wave phases change due to external stressors (like: COVID-19 pandemic, either additional other natural or man-made stressors).
As it was already stated before, multiple system characteristics, could be studied with this approach (sensitivity, utility, risk, efectiveness, etc.), using diferent probabilistic representations [29], whilst the idea here is to consider the system efectiveness – (see Figure 7), following Figure 6: Dynamic quantum tunnelling idea with diferthe model from Figure 3. ent phases duration Δ & switching thresholds Θ between
Some Illustrative examples, concerning selected enti- phases, caused with implausible stressors. ties with holistic system model results from Figure 3 are given below:
As properly assessing future holistic model evolution 2.3. Observational Perspective is somewhat uncertain, a supplementary entity “Other” has been added in order to omit unfeasible subsystem The implementation of this perspective could be arranged heuristic solutions, because the complete system evolu- with diferent viewpoints [ 1] but in practice the idea retion could be unstable, either contradictory one. quires an interactive human factor observations in a fu
Next, in order to get more comprehensive results fu- turistic environment, with resulting key outlines. In this ture assessment from deductive perspective (whilst so sense, recently two kinds of experimental observations far, the framework is working only inductively, assuming have been performed and will be further described. a certain future scenario context definition both in static and dynamic sense) an observation with multiple biomet- 2.3.1. Simulated Exploration rics responses and contexts have been added, producing an experimental results future proactive verification per- Based on imaginary future reality recreation, either buildspective. ing still non-existing simulated realities, following the “simulacra” concept [30]. Virtual, augmented and mixed up) EEG Relative Power Spectrum – (resulting of realities are combined, providing possibility for multi- six leads after Jasper 10/20 placement scheme: F3, F4, C3, modal extended reality interacting (using special gadgets, C4, P3, P4, [31]) changes, by using a 3D monitor with like: glasses, helmets, joysticks, clothes, biometric con- active glasses (because of montage physical limitations trollers). User multiple observations are performed with of the head electrodes, not possible to be combined with diferent human-in-the-loop biometric responses, trying VR glasses), after [32] and GSR (from dominant hand to better understand this new futuristic reality transfor- D3 & D4 fingers) adapted H iguchi Fractal Dynamics – mational perspectives. [16] measuring has been taken and synchronized
Some illustrative results, regarding the set-up process in a reasonable interval with stimuli. All experimental and simulated exploration are presented in Figure 8 & recordings have been taken while the volunteers were Figure 9. The idea is accomplishing short multimedia sitting calm in a comfortable position. No particular volstimulations (about 3 min each, with 5 min resting pause untary movements or other expressive responses were between the series) in a virtual reality (using HTC VIVE requested.
Pro system), concerning four scenario combinations (Fu- The experimental set-ups are trying to identify bioture Habitat, Future Cooking, Digital Fashion & Smart Cin- metric correlations with futuristic multimedia tailored ema). About 25 healthy volunteers (18 men & 7 women, background stimuli. A supplementary psychology evaluaaverage age 43 ± 7; reporting a normal healthy status tion based on Eysenck’s personality (assuming: extrovert, and tested for side efects, like: vertigo, disorientation, introvert & ambivert tuple of classification) and Lüscher dizziness or headache exclusion on the environment set- color motivation assessment have been compared with self- reporting of key entities (resulting from multimedia stimulations, remembered about 10 min after the experiments), trying to achieve context comprehensive understanding (see [33] for some more details). 2.3.2. Real-World Social Experiments The experiments have been performed relying on human personality traits and skills transformation changes observation, while clashing with smart technologies both in short and longer time frames with group events, like: table top exercises, round tables, training workshop exercises and summer schools (see Figure 10).
The presented idea is a rather useful one but somewhat resource consuming, requiring: human, technologies, time, economic and knowledge sustainable investments.
Here, it should be noted that digital transformation in itself and COVID-19 pandemic efects to the postinformation age, together with recent climate crisis and wars could be also considered as live real-world experi- Figure 11: Generalized results on imaginary reality & AI role ments on modern assessments with SRS’2022, towards 2037, [34].
society adaptation and response to dynamic external stressors [20, 24]. 2.4. Discussion Innovative technologies progress, transhumanization and intelligent biotope closer and advanced interawaring with smart elements, added due to AI evolutionary algorithms and ultraconnected IoTs are obviously establishing a new transcended and already preferred hyperreality mix. The future transhuman cyber traits will certainly attack our extended senses, skills and capabilities in this new hyperreality, joining also smart machines’ advanced knowledge and dual role (attack & defense) to the new digital mixed ecosystem securing. In this sense, the transformed digital society lifestyle will definitely look quite diferent from now, especially with extended role of AI in multiple smart gadgets, robots and avatars, assisting and securing the society with multiple areas. Due to the extended ultraspeeded and deeply emersed with future humans hyperreality the new generations consciousness, behaviour and other personal traits are going to be dramatically transformed, providing new digital people (also marked as “transhumans”) with extended capacity and understandings but adding also diferent mental and cognitive disorders. Finally, it should be noted that this hyperreality mix and digital people (resulting from the transformation) should be taken with the understanding for a new living advanced digital ecosystem. While, assuming naturally mistakes, uncertainties and transcendents appearance that need to be properly handled and studied in the dynamic context of the future post-information age, resulting currently mostly of pandemic but also and collaborating with other new stressors’ turbulent role. The process becomes even more complicated with proactive exploration necessity that obviously need to merge both human advanced capabilities with general AI algorithms towards singularity or at least successful coping of new unprecedented natural and machine system stressors. related fields, Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2005. [32] Z. Minchev, Security challenges to critical infrastructure of future smart cities, Proc. of BISEC’2019 (2019). [33] Z. Minchev, Public opinion influence through electronic propaganda activities, in: Building Cyber Resilience against Hybrid Threats, IOS Press, 2022, pp. 60–70. [34] S. D. F. 21, The secure digital future 21 initiative, 2017. URL: http://securedfuture21.org/.