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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>G. Kılınç Soylu);</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Size Measurement and Effort Estimation in Microservice- based Projects: Results from Pakistan</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Görkem Kılınç Soylu</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Hüseyin Ünlü</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Isra Shafique Ahmad</string-name>
          <email>israshafique@iyte.edu.tr</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Onur Demirörs</string-name>
          <email>onurdemirors@iyte.edu.tr</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Izmir Institute of Technology</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Gülbahçe, Urla, Izmir, 35430</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="TR">Türkiye</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2023</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>000</volume>
      <fpage>0</fpage>
      <lpage>0001</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>During the last decade, microservice-based software architecture has been a common design paradigm in the industry and has been successfully utilized by organizations. Microservice-based software architecture, specifically in the form of reactive systems, has substantial differences from the more conventional design paradigms, such as the object-oriented paradigm. The architecture moved away from being data-driven and evolved into a behavior-oriented structure. The usage of a single database is replaced by the structures in which each microservice is developed independently and has its own database. Therefore, adaptation demands software organizations to transform their culture. In this study, we aimed to get an insight into how Pakistani software organizations perform size measurement and effort estimation in their software projects which embrace the microservice-based software architecture paradigm. For this purpose, we surveyed 49 Pakistani participants from different agile organizations over different roles and domains to collect information on their experience in microservice-based projects. Our results reveal that although Pakistani organizations face challenges, they continue using familiar subjective size measurement and effort estimation approaches that they have used for traditional architectures.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;Microservices</kwd>
        <kwd>software size measurement</kwd>
        <kwd>effort estimation</kwd>
        <kwd>agile</kwd>
        <kwd>survey</kwd>
        <kwd>Pakistan</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        During the last decade, we are experiencing a paradigm shift in the software industry; a growing
number of software organizations have preferred MicroService-based Software Architectures
(MSSA) in their projects. Today, many massive software organizations such as Amazon, LinkedIn,
Netflix, SoundCloud, and Uber have adopted the MSSA paradigm [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        MSSA consists of loosely coupled distributed microservices that work in cohesion. These
microservices communicate by messages over lightweight mechanisms, such as REST [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]. Each
microservice can be developed, deployed, and scaled independently [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. The change in
one microservice should not affect another microservice. MSSA has also been associated with
event-based asynchronous service communication and ledger-style data persistence to reveal
real-world benefits regarding scalability, reliability, and performance [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>The essential characteristics of microservices are found to fit into the agile development
methodology [6]–[8]. Delivering working software frequently, which is one of the most important
principles of the Agile Manifesto, can be provided by independent microservices with a single
business capability. Additionally, an agile team is expected to find it easier to grasp domain
concepts within a bounded context, as they are interrelated [8].</p>
      <p>
        MSSA exhibits significant distinctions from the conventional object-oriented paradigm,
particularly in the context of reactive systems [9]. We observed that traditional modeling
notations used for analysis and design are ineffective when working with microservices [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. Even
the fundamental abstraction in use today, the 'object' in the Object-Oriented methodology, needs
to change. Consequently, the new paradigm requires a shift similar to the one experienced during
the transition from structured and object-oriented analysis and design [9]. This new paradigm
necessitates adapting to the service as the primary abstraction, event-based decomposition, and
asynchronous communication, which are fundamental characteristics of reactive microservices.
      </p>
      <p>Similarly, we observed that traditional functional size measurement methods may not align
well with the structure of the microservices [10], [11]. MSSA moved away from being data-driven
and evolved into a behavior-oriented structure. The usage of a single database is replaced by the
structures in which each microservice is developed independently and has its own database. It is
important to make software size measurement methods compatible with the architecture to be
measured. However, lightweight requirements are the only artifacts for early-phase estimations
in the agile world. Therefore, a size measurement method compatible with MSSA should also
consider the lack of detailed requirements in the agile world.</p>
      <p>We previously performed a survey [12] and an interview [13] to explore the organizational
choices and the challenges of the agile development process, agile tools, software analysis, design,
test, size measurement, and effort estimation. We presented the views, experiences, and
challenges of participants over different roles, domains, and countries. The results showed that
organizations globally continue to use the same analysis, design, size measurement, and effort
estimation approaches that they were using previously in traditional architectures. However,
they face unique challenges in the management of MSSA projects.</p>
      <p>As a developing country, Pakistan’s market for computer software has seen steady growth for
the past several years. Much of the growth is driven by the work of freelancers who earned
subpar certifications from local institutions and support specialized fields in the local
market. Pakistan is currently the fourth largest freelance provider after India, Bangladesh, and
the United States, with gaming software development [14].</p>
      <p>In this study, we aimed to explore how Pakistani Agile organizations perform size
measurement and effort estimation in their projects developed with MSSA. For this purpose, we
performed our previous survey of over 49 Pakistani participants from different organizations,
roles, and domains. We compared the results of Pakistani organizations with our previous studies
performed with participants from different countries. We observed similar results that are
employed globally.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Related Work</title>
      <p>In the literature, there are a number of studies analyzing migration issues or technical issues for
converting monoliths to microservice-based systems. However, only a few studies explored the
issues from the project management perspective and for building new microservice-based
systems (please see [13] – Section 2, due to page limitations). We could not find enough studies
to perform a systematic literature review on the analysis, design, size measurement, and effort
estimation of microservices. To the best of our knowledge, there is no study that reveals Pakistani
organizational practices in terms of size measurement and effort estimation for
microservicebased projects.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Research Method</title>
      <p>In this study, we conducted a survey to get an insight into how Pakistani software organizations
perform size measurement and effort estimation in their microservice-based software projects.
On the basis of the answers we collect from the practitioners, we aim to identify the trends in the
methods and technologies used in conducting microservice-based projects. The research
questions we address in this study are as follows:</p>
      <p>RQ1. How do organizations in Pakistan apply the agile methodology in microservice-based
projects?</p>
      <p>RQ2. How do organizations in Pakistan perform size measurement and effort estimation in
microservice-based projects?</p>
      <p>RQ3. Are the size measurement and effort estimation methods and technologies utilized in
Pakistan different from those employed globally? If there are differences, what sets them apart?</p>
      <p>Due to the page limitations, we provided the research method section in our online
supplementary material.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Results</title>
      <p>In this section, due to space constraints, we report a summary of the survey results of 49
participants regarding the demographics, experience with Agile methodology and
microservicebased projects, and size measurement and effort estimation.</p>
      <p>4.1.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Demographics of the participants</title>
      <p>The majority of our participants, i.e., 60%, completed their undergraduate degree in computer
science, while 30% graduated from software engineering, 4% from information systems, and %
six from other fields. 68% of our participants completed their graduate degree, i.e., 38% in
computer science, 20% in software engineering, and 10% in other fields.</p>
      <p>The participants in our study hold diverse positions in their respective companies, including
developer, senior developer, software architect, test engineer, software engineer, and other roles
such as software test engineer, analyst, and chief executive officer, among others. Most of the
participants (38%) work as a senior developer, while 26% work as a developer, 6% as a software
engineer, 6% as a software architect, 6% as a software test engineer, and the remaining 18% work
in other roles.</p>
      <p>The survey participants come from organizations across various industry sectors. We grouped
some very specific answers under more general domains to achieve more informative and
readable charts and consequently to enable meaningful deductions from the results. According to
the answers, 34% of our participants work in the finance sector, while 24% work in a field related
to mobile software, 16% work in web development, 14% work in the entertainment sector, 6%
work in game development, and 6% work in telecom.</p>
      <p>The participants’ experience in their current role ranges from 1 to 10 years. The mean value
of the distribution is 2.74, whereas the median is 2.5. Their experience in software
engineeringrelated fields also ranges from 1 to 10 years. The mean value of the distribution is 4.29, whereas
the median is 4. The detailed charts and distributions can be seen in the online supplementary
material.</p>
      <p>4.2.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Experience with Agile methodology and based projects microservice</title>
      <p>Our results show that the participants' organizations' experience with agile methodologies
ranges from 1 to 23 years, whereas their experience in microservices ranges from 1 to 9 years.
Table 3 shows the distribution. The mean and the median of the organizations’ experience in agile
methodologies are 7.81 and 5, whereas the mean and the median of the organizations’ experience
in microservices are 4.03 and 3.</p>
      <p>In our survey, we asked our participants which agile methodology they use in their
organizations. The results show that the majority of the participants use SCRUM, and the only
other methodology used by the participants is Kanban. No other methods were mentioned by any
of our participants, while some indicated that they use SCRUM and Kanban together. According
to our results, 80% of the participants use SCRUM, and 25% use Kanban. Notice that the
intersection is not an empty set.</p>
      <p>Our survey included some questions about the work environment and team dynamics. The
results show that the team members of most of the participants work on many projects
simultaneously. 58% of the participants work on multiple projects at the same time, whereas 42%
work on only one project. The majority of our participants (84%) indicated that everyone is easily
accessible while communicating within the team and with upper management. Only 16%
indicated that there is a hierarchy in communication. According to the answers of the
participants, the majority of them, i.e., 84%, have team members who are certified in agile
methodologies (such as being a SCRUM Master). The detailed charts can be seen in the online
supplementary material.</p>
      <p>4.3.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Size measurement and effort estimation</title>
      <p>In this section, we will give a summary of the results concerning the size measurement and
effort estimation that we gathered via our survey.</p>
      <p>We asked our participants how they perform effort estimation in their microservice-based
projects. Half of the participants indicated that they use expert judgment. 30% of the participants
stated that they do effort estimation ad-hoc, while 28% use an organization-wide prediction
model, 24% use planning poker, 18% use parametric estimation method, and 4% use wide-band
delphi. It was possible to give multiple answers to this question. It is seen from the results that
some participants use multiple methods, whereas some do not perform any effort estimation (see
Fig. 1a).</p>
      <p>The next question of the survey concerns the software size measurement method used in
microservice-based projects. The results show that most participants (58%) use the story points
method. Followingly, 28% utilize case points, while 14% of the participants use source lines of
code, 6% use t-shirt size, 2% use COSMIC, 4% use other methods, and 12% don’t perform any
size measurement (see Fig. 1b).</p>
      <p>We also investigated in our survey which tasks are included in effort estimation. According to
the answers, development effort is considered in effort estimation by 88% of the participants’
organizations. Test effort is included in effort estimation by 70%, while design effort is included
by 60%, analysis effort is included by 56%, and operations effort is included by 48%. Only 4% of
participants indicated that they do not perform any effort estimation (see Fig. 1c).</p>
      <p>As for the smallest unit that the organizations estimate/record effort, the results show that the
majority of the organizations (62%) estimate/record requirements. 48% estimate/record
product backlog items, while 18% perform Epic-based effort estimation (see Fig. 1d).</p>
      <p>Our survey shows that the majority of our participants do not use any tool for effort estimation
or size measurement, whereas only 38% use a tool for this purpose (see Fig. 1e).</p>
      <p>Our survey includes a question about the challenges observed during the effort estimation
process when utilizing microservice-based projects. For this question, participants were
expected to select a number between 1 and 5, 1 being the least and 5 being the most. 6% of the
participants do not observe any challenges, whereas 10% observe only some challenges. The
majority of the participants (54%) indicated that they observe a medium level of challenges,
whereas 24% find effort estimation very challenging, and 6% find it extremely challenging (see
Fig. 1f).</p>
      <p>Our participants were also asked about the change in the precision of estimated effort when
utilizing microservice-based projects. Again, they were expected to choose a number between 1
and 5, 1 being the least and 5 being the most. 6% indicated no change in precision, whereas 10%
indicated some changes. Half of the participants chose number 3, meaning that they observed a
medium level of change in the precision of estimated effort when utilizing microservice-based
projects. 30% indicated a high level of change, whereas 4% indicated a very high level of change
(see Fig. 1g).</p>
      <p>Lastly, we asked in our survey how frequently the actual individual effort is recorded in their
organizations. 40% answered that they record daily, whereas 36% record weekly and 22%
record monthly. Only 2% indicated that they do not record the actual individual effort (see Fig.
1h).</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>5. Discussion</title>
      <p>In this study, we explored how Pakistani software organizations perform size measurement and
effort estimation in their software projects which embrace the MSSA paradigm in the agile world.
The survey results show that there is no de facto approach utilized for these tasks among the
participants.</p>
      <p>In general, organizations utilize subjective size measurement (such as story point) and effort
estimation (such as expert judgment) methodologies for microservice-based projects. However,
these subjective methodologies are also heavily criticized [17] due to the misinterpreted
perceptions of size, complexity, subjectivity, and team-specific characteristics, which make them
hard to transfer across teams. Therefore, effort estimation in Agile organizations becomes a
challenging task.</p>
      <p>Functional size measurement methods have been widely used for objective size measurement
of monolith software architectures. To illustrate, COSMIC, one of the functional size measurement
methods, is based on counting data movements [18]. The method suggests using data analysis
approaches such as relational data analysis, class diagram, and entity relationship analysis.
However, the use of traditional data analysis methods has gradually decreased in
microservicebased projects where requests and responses are the majority instead of data flow. The
architecture moved away from being data-driven and evolved into a behavior-oriented structure.
The usage of a single database is replaced by the structures in which each microservice is
developed independently and has its own database. It can be argued that functional size
measurement methods, such as COSMIC, may be suited for MSSA by counting the messages
between microservices as data groups. However, MSSA, in the reactive form, is not the same as
Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Microservices are designed using event-based architecture.
Events, by being used in asynchronous communication of different services, led to faster
decisionmaking, reduced costs, and improved scalability in microservices. This asynchronous
communication is generally managed by structures such as event queues. Microservices
subscribe to these event queues to consume the published events by other microservices.
Therefore, there is a need for a method to measure the size of microservice-based projects, using
events as base measurement units which are fundamental concepts of the MSSA. We previously
proposed an event-based size measurement method for MSSA that counts the number of process,
communication, and interaction events. We built more precise effort estimation models using the
event-based size compared to the models built with COSMIC and source lines of code [10], [11].</p>
      <p>The main problem in today’s agile software industry is that organizations do not want to spend
time and resources on size measurement and effort estimation. It is a fact that functional size
measurement methods need expertise; therefore, especially small-sized organizations cannot
create precise effort estimation models using these size measures. On the other hand, there is an
opportunity to predict the functional size of the project requirements using artificial intelligence.
In [19], we attempted to predict the COSMIC size of use case descriptions using Natural Language
Processing (NLP) models. Although we used a relatively small dataset to train the models, we
obtained promising size prediction results with a 0.23 Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE)
and 0.75 PRED(30). Agile organizations can benefit from this prediction model to perform an
early estimation.</p>
      <p>Another main problem is that agile organizations generally do not have historical effort data
to construct effort estimation models. The size of the software project can be measured at every
stage of the project, from the requirements, code, or user interface. However, accessing historical
effort data from previous projects may not always be possible within organizations. Therefore, it
can be challenging to estimate effort for new projects. In such cases, software organizations may
use software benchmarking datasets to construct effort estimation models or organizational
benchmarking purposes [20], [21].</p>
      <p>In this study, we also aimed to answer whether the size measurement and effort estimation
methods and technologies utilized in Pakistan are different from those employed globally (see
Table 4). The survey results show that Pakistani organizations also apply subjective size
measurement and effort estimation methods, as employed globally. They mainly use the globally
employed size measurement method, story point, in their microservice-based projects. However,
the major effort estimation method in Pakistan is different from the global results. Expert
judgment is the mostly used effort estimation methodology in Pakistani organizations while
planning poker is the common global approach. In our previous interview [13], participants
generally stated that teams first play Planning Poker to estimate the effort. However, if the
estimated effort is found as not reasonable by the upper management, the estimation is updated
by the managers. This scenario may also be applicable to Pakistani organizations.</p>
      <p>Also, the majority of Pakistani organizations do not see any challenge or precision difference
between the effort estimation of microservice-based projects and traditional monolith projects.
This may be related to employing professionals who analyze team dynamics well and are
experienced in microservice-based projects. Or, team members may not fully reflect their actual
efforts due to competition concerns, as indicated in [13].</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-9">
      <title>6. Limitations and threats to validity</title>
      <p>Our study is not without limitations. The number of participants in the survey may be considered
a limitation. We have done our best to increase our sample size while making sure that a single
organization will not dominate the survey. This is one of the factors that limit the number of
participants; we have also paid attention to making sure participants were from a wide range
considering their experience, role, and organization size. As a result, we ended up with a good
representation but a limited number of participants. Although it is difficult to generalize the
results as best practices, we believe we provide a meaningful snapshot of Pakistan’s software
industry that utilizes microservices.</p>
      <p>A possible potential threat can be related to misconceptions about questions, as there is no
face-to-face communication during the survey. We performed a pilot study with 3 participants to
prevent this potential threat. We eliminated misunderstandings and ambiguities and ensure the
interview was well-designed to serve our goal.</p>
      <p>Another validity threat can be related to whether correct conclusions are reached through
rigorous and repeatable treatment. We conducted our survey with participants from different
roles, domains, and experiences without losing control of the participants to prevent the
participation of unrelated participants. We also set criteria to assess the quality, accuracy, and
trustworthiness of the survey results. We eliminated some results due to a lack of experience in
MSSA.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-10">
      <title>7. Conclusion</title>
      <p>During the last decade, MSSA has been a common design paradigm in the industry and has been
successfully utilized by organizations. MSSA, specifically in the form of reactive systems, has
substantial differences from the more conventional design paradigms, such as the object-oriented
paradigm. The architecture moved away from being data-driven and evolved into a
behaviororiented structure. The usage of a single database is replaced by the structures in which each
microservice is developed independently and has its own database. Therefore, adaptation
demands software organizations to transform their culture.</p>
      <p>In this study, we aimed to explore how Pakistani Agile organizations perform size
measurement and effort estimation in their projects developed with MSSA. For this purpose, we
performed our previous survey of over 49 Pakistani participants from different organizations,
roles, and domains. We compared the results of Pakistani organizations with our previous studies
performed with participants from different countries [12], [13]. The results show that Pakistani
organizations also apply subjective size measurement and effort estimation methods in their
microservice-based projects, as employed globally.</p>
      <p>This survey provided insight for Pakistani software organizations to transform their culture
for microservice-based software architectures. In the meantime, we have observed that we were
not able to observe many of the insights gained by the practitioners due to the nature of
questionnaire-based surveys for domains that experience transformation, although we provided
a free text field for the “Other” choice in the answers and a field to enter the comments. We have
seen that many participants did not enter any further comments during the survey. Therefore, a
follow-up interview can be performed with Pakistani organizations as future work.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-11">
      <title>8. Supplementary Material</title>
      <p>The supplementary material, including the removed sections, charts, and survey questions, can
be found at https://bit.ly/46Zz2PK.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-12">
      <title>9. Acknowledgments 10. References</title>
      <p>This research is supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey
(TUBITAK) ARDEB 1001 [Project number: 121E389] program.
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