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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>“My, my, how can I resist you?” - Examining User Reactions to Bogus Explanations of AI Prediction</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Laura Spillner</string-name>
          <email>laura.spillner@uni-bremen.de</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Rachel Ringe</string-name>
          <email>rringe@uni-bremen.de</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Robert Porzel</string-name>
          <email>porzel@uni-bremen.de</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Rainer Malaka</string-name>
          <email>malaka@uni-bremen.de</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Ethics and Trust in Human-AI Collaboration: Socio-Technical Approaches</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>University of Bremen, Digital Media Lab</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Bibliothekstraße 1, 28359 Bremen</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="DE">Germany</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>In human-AI-collaboration tasks, explanations with low faithfulness but high plausibility might be used to invoke unwarranted trust in the AI. We propose the term bogus explanations for these kinds of explanations and compare their efect on participant behavior to that of no explanation, for the task of determining if a Eurovision Song Contest song is a winner or a loser. Our study found that participants tended towards their own intuitive choices. Fewer of the users that were provided with bogus explanations followed the AI's suggestions and they were more critical of the AI's performance, but at the same time, they reported that they trusted the AI more than the group without explanations.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Explainability</kwd>
        <kwd>explanations</kwd>
        <kwd>XAI</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Human-AI collaboration where the AI serves as a decision aid is becoming more common in
various fields, such as the analysis of pathology samples [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], Recidivism Risk Assessment [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]
and patient treatment [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. In these situations the AI predicts an outcome and recommends a
path of action to the human, while the human makes the final decision. To aid human decision
making, AI should be able to explain its suggested course of actions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4, 5, 6, 7</xref>
        ], so the user can
determine if they should follow the AI’s recommendation or go against it.
      </p>
      <p>However, more recently concerns have surfaced on the usefulness of explanations for
nonexpert users: In some cases it has been shown that human-AI-teams do not perform better than
AI alone [7], while other research has shown that statements on the system’s accuracy increase
trust even if the displayed value is only 50% [8].</p>
      <p>This raises the question if users are able to judge how trustworthy an AI prediction actually
is, how accurately they can do so, and what characteristics suitable explanations should possess.
Can humans tell whether or not a provided explanation genuinely gives them useful information
about how the AI reached its decision? Is it possible to train users to better assess the faithfulness</p>
      <p>To explore these questions, we conducted a first study in which we present users with “bogus
explanations” - explanations that have no basis in the actual workings of the model. Will users
be swayed by any explanation that does not have very obvious flaws, or will they be wary even
if the bogus explanations sound at first glance entirely plausible? In our study we employ a
2-step task setup: First, we ask participants to make a decision based on their own intuition.
Afterwards, we present them with AI predictions, some of which oppose their own first intuition,
in two conditions:
• a prediction with no explanation
• a prediction together with a natural language explanation that is phrased in a plausible
way but has no actual connection to the AI’s reasoning
We propose that this setup allows to analyse not only the performance of human-AI-teams, but
also if people change their mind based solely on the prediction or also on the explanation for the
prediction. With this study, we aim to explore if people are inclined to trust AI predictions over
their own intuition in the given domain and task (even if the AI predictions are misleading), and
how this changes if a baseless “bogus” explanation is presented in addition to the prediction.
We chose the task of predicting if a past Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) song achieved the
ifrst or last place. Finally, we investigate participants’ perceived trust in the AI as well as their
perceptions of the basis and plausibility of the explanations.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Related Work</title>
      <p>
        Explainable AI (XAI) - particularly AI that is transparent and interpretable - is hoped to increase
trust in AI [9, 10]. The goal of trustworthiness is important both for users working together
with the AI as well as people who are afected by AI decisions [ 10]. Thus, it is important that AI
is able to justify its decisions in order to prevent mistakes, similar to how human oversight also
necessitates explanations [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. The given explanations need to be comprehensible to users [10].
      </p>
      <p>Both [11] and [12] emphasize in their definitions of trust the notion that one party depends on
another party to reach their goal, as well as the vulnerability and risk inherent in this situation.
Trust in humans is usually based on the social relationship and perceived morals of an agent
while research suggests that trust in automation is based on performance [13]. Jacovi et al
introduced the concept of warranted trust in XAI: Trust in an AI system is considered warranted
only when the AI is actually trustworthy, that is when the behavior expected and trusted by the
user matches its actual capabilities [5]. If a change in the AI’s behavior or explanations does
not lead to a change in trust, then it follows that the trust is not warranted. There are various
metrics used to measure trust: Some rely on self-reports given by participants, while others
measure participant behaviors that indicate trust or distrust. Trust questionnaires in AI have
often been taken from other areas of research like human-human trust, automation,
humanrobot-interaction etc. These questionnaires can vary between the simple question “Do you
trust this AI?” and far more elaborate and situation-specific questions [ 14, 15, 16]. Behavioral
measures are often situation-specific to the field of application and can include examples such
as following guidance [17], degree of the user’s compliance with requests [18], or the frequency
of interventions into an otherwise autonomous system [19].</p>
      <p>In certain human-AI-collaboration tasks the goal is to use an AI system as a decision aid to
improve humans’ predictions and decisions [8, 6, 20, 7]. In these cases explanations should
aid in calibrating trust in the AI to an appropriate level - ideally, users should follow the AI
recommendation only when it is correct. Some argue that an accurate mental model of the AI’s
inner workings is necessary for trust calibration [6, 21]. Recently, several works have pointed
out problems when it comes to using XAI for trust calibration or collaborative tasks: Chen
et al. pointed out that there were many examples of recent studies where human-AI-teams
fail to outperform AI alone in several diferent domains, which questions the usefulness of the
human in the loop; while explanations only improved human performance slightly if at all
[7]. Similarly, Lai et al evaluated explanations containing diferent levels of information, and
found that human performance was best when they were presented with the AI’s prediction
and a statement on its accuracy - better than if the prediction and explanation were provided.
This still applies when the claimed accuracy of the AI was only at 50%, indicating that trust
is increased by any information on the machine accuracy [8]. However, in this study also AI
alone performed better than humans or human-AI-teams. According to Zhang et al, confidence
scores can be used to calibrate trust [6], yet the decision outcome was not improved because the
AI decision boundary and human decision boundary were aligned, meaning that humans and
AI made mistakes on the same instances. Explanations did not improve trust in this situation,
presumably because of the lack of obvious - to the human - flaws in the AIs decision making [ 6].
They also compare their results to Lai et al [8] and recognize that the performance can increase
if the AI is better at the task than the human.</p>
      <p>In response to these problems, Chen et al developed a framework to clarify what aspects
should be communicated to the users in the explanations. They argue that XAI is only helpful
if the human has additional knowledge or intuition that they can use to determine if an AI
prediction is correct or if the AI’s reasoning presented in the explanation is valid [7] - if the
human is at most as good at the task as the AI is, and is not able to tell that its reasoning is flawed
or biased, then the collaboration does not improve performance. Another potential problem
with XAI in human-AI-collaboration is the usefulness of technical explanations to non-expert
users. Wang and Yin show that changes to explanations due to updates of the AI model can
negatively impact users’ trust in the model, since this challenges their existing perceptions of the
model’s accuracy and consistency of the explanations [22]. The concept of “Social Explainability
of AI” proposed by Kroeger et al suggests that technical explanations would decrease trust
for users with little technical expertise, as they do not help their understanding. Instead they
propose providing assurances from experts that the model is working as intended [23].</p>
      <p>Due to these problems, several researchers have questioned whether XAI methods can be
abused to increase unwarranted trust in AI systems, through a kind of “dark pattern”
explanations. Eiband et al found that so called “placebic explanations” - justifications that convey no
information - can have a comparable efect on trust as real explanations [ 24]. Jacovi and
Goldberg introduced the concepts of the faithfulness of an explanation, that is how well it reflects the
real workings of the model, and plausibility, which describes how reasonable and convincing
and explanation sounds to humans. They warn against explanations that are plausible but not
necessarily faithful [25].</p>
      <p>This is of particular interest when considering the use of Natural Language Processing (NLP)
to generate explanations in natural language, which might sound more plausible to users without
increasing (or potentially even while decreasing) the explanations’ faithfulness. There have
already been several studies on how to generate plausible explanations with NLP: Camburu et al
collected a dataset and developed a trained model to generate natural language explanations for
entailment relations in NLP tasks [26] - the model is trained to generate explanations that mirror
the way humans would explain the solutions to the same problems. Wiegrefe et al trained GPT3
to generate explanations from a small number of human examples, with the goal of discovering
user preferences for natural language explanations (in this case, the explanations did not reflect
any underlying model, thus there is no question of faithfulness). Users preferred the generated
explanations over human ones [27]. Many researchers argue that in order for explanations to
be more helpful to humans, they should be delivered in natural language form [28]. One reason
for this is that in human interaction, explanation is clearly a communicative process, and if
XAI is to be human-centered reseachers and developers need to take into account the idea of
explanations as conversation [29]. Feldhus et al also argue that technical explanations should
be delivered in the form of natural language to help users understand them better, while still
suggesting that natural language explanations alone might invoke unwarranted trust in the
system [28].</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Experimental Design and Study</title>
      <p>Based on the definition of faithfulness and plausibility of explanations [ 5], we propose the term
“bogus explanations” for explanations with higher levels of plausibility but zero faithfulness.
To examine how explanations of this kind influence people’s perception of AI and trust in it,
we conducted this first study in order to establish a baseline, comparing participants’ behavior
in response to bogus explanations with their behavior when given no explanations at all.
Participants were asked to first make decisions on their own. Afterwards they were shown AI
predictions for the same task as a decision aid. The AI suggestions however were not always
helpful, but would point the user towards the wrong result in some cases. This setup should
show if people would let themselves be mislead by the wrong AI predictions and change their
ifrst intuitive correct prediction to an AI-suggested incorrect one. In addition it should show if
the rate at which users switch away from their first intuitive choice would be afected by the
bogus explanation or not, and if the participants would consciously realize that the explanations
were lacking faithfulness and were not to be trusted.</p>
      <p>Since prior work has shown that human-AI-teams are only efective when working in a field
where the human possesses intuition that allows them to judge the AI’s reasoning and decision,
we decided on a domain where humans possess a reasonably good level of intuitive knowledge,
but often base their decision on feeling/intuition rather than fact, and an AI could be reasonably
expected to make correct predictions but also not be infallible. We were looking for a task that
does not have a logical correct answer and is rather subjective, but can still be evaluated against
a “correct” prediction. We decided the domain of music contests: When judging the participants
of the Eurovision Song Contest, it usually feels very obvious which songs will place low and
which would have a high chance of success. However, these seemingly obvious bad acts keep
making it to the finals, so predicting the majority reaction to these songs is not as easy as it
seems at first glance and there might be surprise successes. To assess the suitability of this task
for the study, a pre-study was conducted with ten participants. Half of the participants were
asked to decide if a song was a winner or a loser based only on artist, country and lyrics, while
the other half was provided with a video of the performance. The first group showed an average
accuracy of 66% while the group that had access to the song reached an average accuracy of
84%. Therefore, for the actual study we decided on a compromise of providing users with the
lyrics as well as a 20 second snippet of the music audio.</p>
      <p>The study was conducted online over the course of four weeks. In the description of the study,
participants were informed that there was a global leader-board for the task to motivate them
to perform it to the best of their ability. With this, we hoped to encourage participants to use
the AI predictions if they thought the AI might have better accuracy then they did themselves.
Participants were presented with ten past ESC entries randomly selected from the dataset and
then asked to predict if the songs placed first or last. Afterwards they were told an AI trained
on artist name, country and lyrics had completed the same task and shown the results of its
predictions (we called the tool ‘ABBA-cadabra’ in reference to ABBA being the most well known
winners of the ESC). In reality, the accuracy of the AI was only 50%. Participants were randomly
assigned to one of two groups: One group were only shown the AI predictions, while the other
one also received a bogus natural language explanation with somewhat high plausibility but no
faithfulness that detailed the supposed reasoning for the AI’s decision.</p>
      <p>The dataset consisted of old ESC songs from the years 1980 to 1998, which were collected
from a larger dataset of ESC data [30]. We only included the first and the last places, since we
judged the task of picking the winner out of multiple songs to be too dificult for humans. The
time span was chosen in the hope that most participants would not be familiar with the songs
due to their age (1998 is the cutof since regulations were changed to include English-language
songs from all countries in 1999 - in the selected dataset, all songs are in the native language of
their country of origin). In addition, a song by Celine Dion was excluded from the dataset due
to her popularity and participants likely familiarity with her name. Participants were shown
the name, artist and country of the song, as well as the lyrics and a 20 second preview of the
songs embedded through Spotify. Songs that were not present on Spotify and could thus not be
embedded in the study were also excluded.</p>
      <p>The AI for this study was simulated with a kind of Wizard-of-Oz-Prototype. Instead of
providing an actual prediction for every song, the AI predictions were calculated based on the
participants’ first choices, with the goal of showing the opposite of their choice approximately,
or slightly less than, half of the time. The AI would suggest the incorrect result for half the
songs which the participant had picked correctly (rounded down), with the selection being
random. The other choices were then picked so as to arrive at a total AI accuracy of 50%. Thus,
we ensured that many participants should be able to perform better at the task than the AI did.</p>
      <p>For the group that received explanations, natural language explanations were generated for
both possible outcomes - winner and loser - for every song in the dataset. Several possible tools
to generate a reasonable and plausible sounding text were considered, with the final decision
falling on ChatGPT [31]. First experiments showed that when ChatGPT was provided with the
lyrics to the song, as well as its name, artist and country, and asked to generate an explanation
for a given prediction of winner or loser, it often included actual knowledge that could be a
real basis for an AI-based prediction in the explanations. We were concerned that this would
lead to the bogus explanations being much too plausible, with humans having no indication of
missing faithfulness at all. Therefore, we decided to randomize the explanations even more:
we randomly chose a section of the lyrics as the most salient part of the input, having had
the highest influence on the model’s prediction, and asked ChatGPT to formulate a text given
that this section of the text was the explanation for the AI decision. The explanations were
generated with the prompt:
“You are an AI that is able to predict whether a song will be a winner or a loser
at the Eurovision Song Contest, based on the title, singer, country of origin, and
the lyrics. You predict that the following song called ‘[...]’ by ‘[...]’ from [...]’ will
be a [winner/loser]. These are the lyrics of that song: [...] The part of the lyrics
that had the biggest influence on your prediction is the line ‘[...]’. Write a natural
language explanation of your prediction.”</p>
      <p>Some of the explanations generated with this technique contained references to information
that the AI system could not know based on the supposed input data, such as the singer’s
delivery. An example for one of these explanations:
“Based on the line ’Ich hab’ schon geglaubt, es wäre längst zu spät’, my prediction is
that the song ’Einfach Weg’ by Anita from Austria will be a winner at the Eurovision
Song Contest. This line suggests a sense of determination and perseverance in
the face of adversity, and the theme of leaving behind a monotonous or stifling
situation to start anew in a diferent place is likely to resonate with many people.
Additionally, the singer’s emotive delivery and the upbeat tempo of the song create
a catchy and inspiring vibe that is likely to appeal to a wide audience. Overall,
these factors make me confident in my prediction that this song will be a hit at the
Eurovision Song Contest.”</p>
      <p>The time participants took for the first and the second part of the study was measured.
After completing the task, the participants were asked to rate their level of familiarity with
the ESC, to provide information about their previous experience with AI, as well as their age
and gender. Then participants answered a modified version of the Human-Computer-Trust
(HCT) questionnaire [15] as a self-reported measure of trust for comparison. This modified
version omitted the sections on perceived understandability and personal attachment as well as
the items R3 and R4 from the section perceived reliability and T4 from the section perceived
technical competence since they were not applicable to the task and setup of the study. If they
were in the group that was provided with explanations, they were asked what they considered
to be the basis of the AI’s judgement and if they thought the explanations given were plausible.
Participants were also asked to rate the probability of our AI system successfully predicting
the winner of the next ESC on a five-point Likert scale. The results of this question, the HTC
questionnaire, as well as decision changes were used as behavioral measures for trust in the AI
system.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Results</title>
      <p>80 participants completed the task itself, 40 in either group. 35 in the group without explanations
and 33 in the group with explanations (68 in total) also completed the demographic questionnaire.
Additionally 16 of the participants in the first group and 15 of the participants in the second
group (31 in total) completed the HCT questionnaire. The participants’ ages ranged from 17 to
42, with an average age of 26 years old and one participant preferring not to disclose their age.
42 participants identified as male, 22 as female, and 4 preferred to self-identify. There were no
significant diferences between the groups in terms of their demographic makeup.</p>
      <p>First, we looked at the participants’ performance in the task before they could take into
account the AI suggestions, as well as the time they spent in either section. Participants in both
groups predicted the correct label for 3 to 10 out of the 10 total songs. Interestingly, the group
with explanations performed better with an average of 70% correct compared to 63% correct.
This was measured before there was any diference in the information that the participants
were presented with, thus the efect is random. The participants in the group with explanations
also took longer overall than the ones in the group without explanations. We expected that this
would be explained by the fact that they took more time to read the explanations, however, they
took significantly longer in both sections - this might in part explain why the participants in this
group performed better on their own than the other group, having taken longer to consider their
decisions. On average, participants took about 2 minutes on the first page (deciding without AI)
and about three minutes on the second page (reviewing based on the AI suggestions). As the AI
suggested the opposite of a participant’s original choice for about half the instances in which
they were correct and about half the instances in which they were wrong, we expected that
there should not be a diference in their performance before and after the AI review. This was
generally the case: both groups achieved a very slightly worse mean score after the AI review,
but the diference was not significant.</p>
      <p>We asked participants about their experience with the ESC, whether or not they knew any of
the songs they were asked to make a prediction for, as well as their knowledge of AI in order to
assess how the background of our participant group might influence their intuitive knowledge
of the task. The majority had some familiarity with the topic of AI (31 vs 24 in the group without
and the group with explanations, respectively). Most of them had used AI tools (ChatGPT
among others); with 9 in the without explanation group and 10 in the with explanation group
having taken AI or ML courses at a university level. In terms of their knowledge of the domain
at hand, the majority of the participants stated that they watched the ESC at least sometimes.
Interestingly, more than half of them knew at least one of the songs they were presented with
(21 in the group without explanations, and 22 in the group with explanations), with most listing
only one song that they knew. However, in the group with explanations, there were three
participants who knew multiple songs (one knew all winning songs), potentially afecting their
likelihood to be swayed by the AI’s suggestions.</p>
      <p>Next, we looked at how often participants in each group were swayed to switch away from
their original choice by the AI. Overall, the results show that for our chosen domain, while
bogus explanations did not mislead users more than only the AI suggestions, they also did not
decrease users’ trust in the AI system. However, few participants in either group switched
away from their original choice after looking through the AI suggestions, indicating that for our
task, users preferred to trust their own intuition over AI even without the bogus explanations.
We calculated for each participant a switch ratio as the number of times they did switch from
their original choice to the AI suggestion, divided by the number of times the AI suggested the
opposite of their original choice; as well as a switch ratio for when switching would have been
the right decision (i.e. the original choice was wrong) and when it would have been the wrong
decision (i.e. the original choice was right). On average, the switch ratio for both groups was
very low (0.08 for either group overall, 0.11 for either group when it was the right decision, 0.09
without and 0.07 with explanations when it was the wrong decision). Due to the number of
people who preferred to persist with their original the choice for all songs, the average ratios
are rather low. Therefore, we also looked at how many people of either group decided to switch
based on the AI suggestion at least once. We found more this number was higher in the group
without explanations (10 people) than the group with explanations (7 people). Interestingly,
more people were inclined to switch when it was the wrong decision than the right one: In the
group with and without explanations, 9 and 6 people respectively switched away from their
original, correct choice to the wrong one; and only 6 and 4 people respectively switched from
the wrong to the right option.</p>
      <p>After completing the task with and without AI, participants had the option to answer
additional questions. We asked all participants if they thought the AI might successfully predict
the winner of this year’s contest, as a way to gauge their overall estimation of its accuracy.
The actual accuracy of the AI was only 50%, thus it would have a very low chance of picking
the winner out of a larger number of songs. The participants were not overly confident in the
AI’s accuracy regardless of explanations. The opinions in the group without explanations were
overall “neutral”, while the group with explanations had more people who chose “very unlikely”,
as is shown in Figure 1. This mirrors the results from our analysis of their behavior, where
participants in the with explanation group were also less willing to trust the AI suggestions
over their own intuition. Additionally the participants’ opinions on the likely success of the AI
correlates with their self-reported trust (Kendalls-tau value 0.411) from the HCT.</p>
      <p>The results from the modified HCT questionnaire were evaluated by calculating the average
score for all questions by every participant with the highest possible score being 2 while the
lowest was -2. The results as seen in Figure 2 showed that while both groups reported a negative
score, the group without explanations reported a slightly lower median score of -0.55 than the
reported score of -0.22 from the group with explanations. Looking at the results for the individual
sections seen in Figure 3 of the questionnaire shows that for most questions, participants in
the group with explanations recorded slightly higher scores. For the group with explanations a
correlation (Kendall’s tau value of 0.312) between the reported trust and the amount of switches
from the initial intuitive decision to the one suggested by the AI can be observed that is not
present in the group without explanations. In the group without explanations, out of those
participants who answered the HCT questionnaire, only one person switched at all while all
others did not do so regardless of their reported trust in the system. In addition, for both groups
a correlation between the time spent on making the initial intuitive decision and the ratio of
switches to the AI’s suggestion (Spearman’s rho value of 0.34) can be observed. This correlation
was expected since a participant that spends more time on their decision is presumably more
unsure of it than a participant that makes the decision quickly and thus more likely to be
convinced by the AI’s opinion.</p>
      <p>Those in the group with explanations had the option to answer two further questions about
their perception of the AI’s reasoning. 23 participants also answered these questions. We coded
their answers, based on which we identified the main themes shown in Table 1. When asked
what they think the basis for the AI prediction is, many participants mention features of the
songs that were indeed found in the ChatGPT explanations, such as the content and likely
popularity of the lyrics. The description we gave also implied that the AI model used machine
learning based on data from past contests, which several participants repeated here. A few
people also thought that the AI took into account musical characteristics, which were indeed
included in the generated explanations but should have been a hint that the explanations are not
faithful, as the AI would not have had access to this information based on the description of its
capabilities. Two participants thought the model was biased to prefer Scandinavian countries.
Even though many of the participants in this group were not swayed to change their choices
based on the AI predictions, the majority of them asserted that they found its explanations
plausible. It is interesting that a number of people found that while the explanations sounded
plausible, the AI did not have enough information on which to base an accurate decision; and
one person even noticed that while each explanation seemed plausible, that was contradicting
information in diferent explanations. As only very few people changed their mind based on the
AI predictions in this group, it is not clear whether this is connected to how plausible they found
the explanations: many of the people who stated here that the reasoning seemed plausible did
not change their mind because of it.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5. Discussion</title>
      <p>Our goal of this study was to a) analyse if the task of predicting whether or not an ESC candidate
is a winning or a losing song is suitable to explore participant’s reaction to bogus explanations
(in the future, we want to adapt the task in order to compare bogus explanations with faithful
explanations), and b) establish a baseline for how willing participants are to switch away from
their own intuitive choice based on AI predictions with no or only bogus explanations. In
addition we were interested in their ability to notice the fact that the explanations were bogus,
as well as the participants’ perception of the explanations’ plausibility and faithfulness, their
self-reported trust in the system, and how it lines up with their decisions. As the sample size of
this first study is relatively small, we did not find statistical diferences in the willingness to
switch or the perceptions of the AI, however, we can still draw some conclusions that can be
helpful for our planned studies on bogus vs genuine explanations.</p>
      <p>Firstly, the participants were overall quite unwilling to switch away from their original
intuition based on the AI suggestion. This was unexpected - in our pre-study without AI
suggestions, many people found this to be a very dificult task, so we expected that participants
would use the AI help if they were unsure about their choice. However, in the given 2-step study
setup, it appears that the participants rather preferred to stick by their first intuition rather than
switch to the AI recommendation. It is possible that having participants make a decision before
confronting them with the AI prediction might lead to them being more attached to their initial
choice. It would be interesting to explore this aspect further in the future, as many other studies
show the AI prediction to the participants immediately and do not measure their initial choice
and willingness to switch away from it. On the one hand, presenting users with AI predictions
before they have the opportunity to make up their own mind might prime them towards the
AI’s suggestions; while on the other hand, having users commit to an initial choice first might
make them less likely to change their mind based on the AI. This is important to consider when
designing AI tools for human-AI-collaborative work, since it is unclear at the moment which
setup would lead to better trust calibration overall.</p>
      <p>There was no indication in the measured time taken to complete each part of the study that
participants ignored the AI explanations, so participants did seem to take time to read them
and consider them. Due to random diferences between the groups, the participants in the with
explanation group took more time to consider their answers before moving on to part two of the
study where they would see the given explanations. This could be the reason for their overall
significantly better performance and might have afected their willingness to follow the AI’s
prediction vs trusting their own intuition.</p>
      <p>Secondly, we found that there was a mismatch between participants’ trustful behavior and
their self-reported trust in the AI system. Overall, the participants in the with explanation
group switched from their choice to the AI suggestion less often than the ones in the without
explanation group, and there were more users in this group who were critical of the AI’s
performance and likely success. This at first indicated to us that the explanations did help
users to see that the AI reasoning did not make sense, and prevented unwarranted trust in the
AI as users did not fall for bogus explanations based on random input features. However, at
the same time, participants in the with explanation group reported higher scores in the HCT
questionnaire across all axes (reliance, faithfulness, competence) as well as in the average trust
score. Even though they did not actively trust the AI’s suggestion over their own intuition any
more than those in the group that did not receive any explanations, if not even less then them,
the participants in the with explanation group still stated more often and more strongly that
they found the AI trustworthy. In future studies, we plan to investigate this disconnect between
expressing trust vs. acting based on trust in more detail.</p>
      <p>Furthermore, even though participants did not follow the AI predictions over their own
original choices, they did not express that the explanations themselves made them doubt the
AI’s competence at the task or seemed questionable. None of the participants noted that some
explanations contained information that the AI should not reasonably have had access to
according to the information given to the participants. While some participants claimed that the
explanations seemed plausible based on the data the AI received but that this information was
insuficient to excel at the task, more information could easily be added to the bogus explanations.
This poses the question if the participants would then perceive these explanations as more
trustworthy simply because the AI’s perceived knowledge was larger and if their doubts were
more based on the explanations of the AI before the task than on the actual explanations. These
observations could be of interest for future work on how to best train users to recognize low
faithfulness in AI explanations: The provided information on what data the AI uses compared
to the claims in the explanations should have been explicit hints that these explanations were
not faithful. If we understood better how such information should be presented and how users
in human-AI-collaborative scenarios could be trained to look out for such hints, it might be
possible to prevent or counteract malicious use of bogus explanations to invoke unwarranted
user trust.</p>
      <p>This study was conducted as a first step towards another study where faithful explanations
should be compared to bogus explanations with similar plausibility but ultimately random
content, in order to explore if participants are able to tell that the reasoning in the bogus
explanations is flawed or if they can be swayed by plausible phrasing. Due to participants’
attachment to their original decision as well as the seemingly low level of persuasiveness of the
used explanations the level of plausibility or the accuracy of the AI might need to be increased.
This would help answer the question if it is possible to generate bogus explanations that sound
so plausible that participants will be unable to distinguish them from faithful explanations.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>6. Conclusion and Future Work</title>
      <p>We propose the term “bogus explanations” to describe explanations with low to no faithfulness
but higher plausibility. We conducted a study that compared user behavior in an
human-AIcollaboration task when provided with bogus explanations or no explanations for the AI’s
predictions at all. We found that participants tended towards their own intuitive choices in
general, but users in the group with explanations were slightly less likely to follow the AI
suggestions and more critical of its performance. However, they also expressed higher trust
than those who did not see explanations. Even when they did not follow the AI’s prediction,
participants did not express doubts in the plausibility or basis of the explanations. They
seemingly did not notice that some explanations contained information that the AI would have
no way of knowing according to the description provided to the participants.</p>
      <p>In the future, we plan to compare user reactions to genuine explanations and bogus
explanations to further explore the potential of abuse of generated explanations by using them to invoke
unwarranted trust. In addition we plan to verify if participants can be primed towards the AI
prediction or their own intuitive decision by the study setup, as well as how participants react
to the description of the AI’s knowledge base and how this influences their trust and perceived
competence of the AI system. Finally, we want to investigate if the diference between trust in
action and perceived user trust holds in a larger study. All of these questions should be taken
into consideration when designing future tools that allow humans to work collaboratively with
AI.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Ethical Statement</title>
      <p>There are no ethical issues.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>Acknowledgments</title>
      <p>This work was funded by the by the FET-Open Project #951846 “MUHAI – Meaning and
Understanding for Human-centric AI” by the EU Pathfinder and Horizon 2020 Program.
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