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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>F. Flammini, Model-based analysis of 'k out of m' correlation techniques for diverse
redundant detectors, International Journal of Performability Engineering</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.23940/ijpe</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Probabilistic Modelling for Design and Verification of Trustworthy Autonomous Systems</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Franca Corradini</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>IDSIA USI-SUPSI</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Lugano</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Switzerland</string-name>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2020</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>9</volume>
      <issue>2013</issue>
      <abstract>
        <p>Thanks to the recent technological achievements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics, autonomous systems have been improved to perform increasingly complex tasks in open and uncontrolled environments. Given the uncertainties embedded in machine learning systems and in the environment where they operate, traditional model-based evaluation techniques are not applicable in the design and verification stages. This poses several challenges especially in terms of safety assessment. In the course of the doctoral studies, probabilistic modelling approaches will be investigated to cope with uncertainties and to ensure measurable trustworthiness in autonomous systems. The reference application for the development of the design methodology and the experimental proof-of-concept is the ones of dronesupported autonomous wheelchairs, with a focus on the smart-sensing subsystems. Such application will be developed within a European funded project named REXASI-PRO, where an innovative solution for enhancing mobility and independence for people with disabilities is provided. Deployment of those systems in real-world scenarios imposes strict safety requirements. Probabilistic models can be used to capture uncertainties and variations in the environment and sensory system, enabling the system to change and adapt accordingly. The REXASI-PRO project will address the modelling methodology, tools, reference architecture, design and implementation guidelines. The PhD research will follow project objectives and milestones, including demonstration in relevant indoor and outdoor navigation scenarios. More specifically, a methodology based on Bayesian Network models will be developed and demonstrated to achieve measurable trust and pave the way to quantitative safety assessment of autonomous systems.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;Trustworthy AI</kwd>
        <kwd>Autonomous systems</kwd>
        <kwd>Probabilistic modelling</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Context and motivation</title>
      <p>
        In the last decades, autonomous systems have seen a growing development in several fields,
including automotive [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], navigation, aerospace, industry [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ], and military [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ] applications.
In many cases, those systems are aimed at carrying out operations that were impossible or
critical to perform for human workers. Autonomous systems have been applied mostly in
environments where uncertain events and disturbances are either absent or largely limited,
or where there is supervision by human operators to some extent. Thanks to the recent
technological achievements in AI and robotics, autonomous systems have been improved to
perform increasingly complex tasks such as driving vehicles in complex, open and uncontrolled
environments, even without human supervision. However, due to the possible criticality of
those applications, new vital requirements have been introduced to set next research challenges.
A new vocabulary has been recently introduced to address all the necessary aspects in the
design and evaluation of those systems, not only from a technical perspective, but also in terms
of ethical and legal implications, including fairness and accountability. The “Ethics Guidelines
for Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence” [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ], presented by the High-Level Expert Group on AI
set up by the European Commission, states that trustworthy AI should be:
i. Lawful, to ensure that all laws and regulations are applied and respected;
ii. Ethical, to adhere to moral principles and values;
iii. Robust, to avoid any unintended damage and safety issues.
      </p>
      <p>
        This represents a new challenge for the Validation and Verification (V &amp;V ) of Intelligent
Systems. The uncertain nature of these systems, related to their ability to adapt in response of
external or internal disturbances as well to their capacity of taking choice in autonomy, limit
the use of traditional evaluation techniques during V &amp;V process. Furthermore when machine
learning techniques are included in the autonomous system, better performances are in general
achieved by increasing machine learning complexity at the expense of explainability [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. In
fact, most deep learning models are considered as “black-boxes” compared to traditional control
algorithms and models. Therefore, it is very dificult to use traditional V &amp;V methods, rather
novel and diverse methodologies should be adopted [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. Considering the complexity
characterising these systems, it is to be expected that multiple and diferent verification techniques may
be necessary at diferent stages of the V &amp;V process [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Several are the initiatives for new collaborative research activity to improve the
trustworthiness of autonomous systems with a focus on verifiability (denoting the quality or state of being
capable of being verified, confirmed, or substantiated). The UKRI Trustworthy Autonomous
Systems (TAS) Hub1 is a coordination, community-building, and engagement hub that carry on a
program interlinked projects addressing issues related to TAS. Between the several projects, the
“Verifiability Node” 2 aims to carry out foundational research to enable the possibility of having
a verified autonomy store. This is realised providing an heterogeneous collection of verification
approaches, together with the semantic foundations to design and justify combinations of these
heterogeneous concepts and techniques and analysing the verification issues that emerge across
autonomous systems during their application [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        From the recent systematic review on Testing, Validation, and Verification of Robotic and
Autonomous Systems of reference [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ], partially supported by the UKRI TAS, arises the problem
of a gap in quantitative modelling languages that can capture the complex and heterogeneous
nature of robotic and autonomous systems. This is an interesting research opportunity and an
important topic for future developments for autonomous systems verifiability.
      </p>
      <p>All the aforementioned aspects delineate the context of the doctoral studies subject of the
current proposal and are extremely important when addressing real-world adoption of novel
technologies leveraging on AI and machine learning, whose failure can have severe consequences
on human health. This is the case of autonomous wheelchairs that are meant to support
motion</p>
      <sec id="sec-1-1">
        <title>1https://www.tas.ac.uk 2https://verifiability.org</title>
        <p>impaired persons in safe door-to-door navigation. We will address this case-study in next
section.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. The REXASI-PRO Project</title>
      <p>The work of the doctoral studies subject of the current proposal will be carried out in the
context of the recently started European project named REXASI-PRO3 (Reliable and Explainable
Swarm Intelligence for People with Reduced Mobility). This project has the challenging objective
of implementing a trustworthy swarm intelligence based on the cooperation of autonomous
wheelchairs and drones. The aim is to improve the independent and safe mobility for
wheelchairbound persons. A schematic illustration of the system is depicted in Figure 1. The idea of the
project is to develop a novel framework in which security, safety, ethics, and explainability are
entangled to create a trustworthy collaboration among wheelchairs and flying robots to allow a
seamless door-to-door experience for people with reduced mobility.</p>
      <p>Among the several topics discussed in the project, the work of the doctoral studies of the
current proposal focuses on the realisation of a trustable environmental sensing. The use of a
reliable sensors system is an essential aspect in the context of social robotic navigation, which
is crucial to guarantee robustness against uncertainties, internal malfunctions and external
disturbances. For the case-study, a smart-sensing subsystem will be designed to provide trusted
event detection by following a model-based approach where trustworthiness is enforced during
the whole system life-cycle. Common causes of failures are reduced by applying the principle of
“no single point of failure” and by using strategies that rely on technology diversity. To prove</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>3https://rexasi-pro.spindoxlabs.com</title>
        <p>the trustworthiness of the system, a model-based evaluation procedure will be used, in which
verification for the sensing subsystem is performed at both design-time and run-time with the
aim to fulfil requirements related to Safety Integrity Levels (SIL).</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Research questions, hypothesis and objectives</title>
      <p>The main issue that the doctoral studies of the current proposal has to address is the investigation
and implementation of methods and models for TAS based on the design and run-time evaluation
of trustable sensing through quantitative probabilistic methods that can be applied to assess
system safety in presence of machine learning and environmental uncertainties.</p>
      <p>Specifically, the main research questions (RQs) to address can be formulated as follows:
RQ1: “How can we use probabilistic approaches to support the design of safe autonomous
systems by taking into account all the relevant uncertainties?”</p>
      <p>RQ2: “How can we use probabilistic models for design-time and run-time verification in order
to quantitatively evaluate system safety by using available knowledge about current system
status, machine learning performance, and environmental conditions?”</p>
      <p>RQ3: “Which strategies can be applied to the autonomous system to achieve an adequate
level of safety at design-time and run-time and to ensure its reliability?”</p>
      <p>Although the nature of these questions is more general, a special focus will be set on
smartsensing subsystems within safety-critical TAS.</p>
      <p>In order to address the challenges posed by those RQs, a multi-agent, multi-modal and
selfadaptive sensing system is proposed to achieve trusted event detection, where sensors outputs
are combined to give a common result for the measured variables. In the case of event detection,
one possible approach is based on voting, where the presence of a certain target is determined
by the majority of detectors whose outputs match. Furthermore, by analysing and tracking
detectors’ performance over time, it is possible to score their reputation and exclude from
voting those who are no more reputable and that could negatively afect the outcome of the
decisions. With a change in its internal state, the sensing system can consider a subsystem of
the initial set of detectors to maintain a certain level of reputation. In this way, the system is
able to self-adapt when internal faults occur or when exogenous environmental events cause
performance degradation.</p>
      <p>
        Considering the multi-agent structure of the system, sensors characterised by diferent
technologies and therefore afected by diferent types of internal or external faults are used.
The assumption about the diversity of sensing technology/mechanism is essential to exclude
correlations between them and common-mode faults. Indeed, the multi-sensor and multi-modal
approach implies enough redundancy to evaluate the information we are interested in. It allows
to increase system robustness against the malfunction of some of its components and, to some
extent, to reduce the costs by using cheaper components. Moreover, technology redundancy
and diversity is a necessary feature to improve resilience against environmental disturbances.
As highlighted in reference [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ] “Diversity should be taken advantage of in order to prevent
vulnerabilities to become single points of failure”.
      </p>
      <p>
        The properties of the described system, such as self-adaptation, allow to deal with dynamic
environmental uncertainties. Since the system changes over time, it is not acceptable to apply
traditional validation methods, which involved a single validation step at the end of the system
design. One possibility to cope with the uncertain nature of our system is to adopt probabilistic
approaches based on graphical models. Bayesian networks (BNs) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ] can be used due to their
suitability to represent complex causal relationships between system components, and to visually
describe interdependencies in an easily interpretable way. BNs extensions such as Dynamic
Bayesian Networks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ] and Time-Varying Dynamic Bayesian Networks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ] are also useful to
manage time-varying and dynamic aspects [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        The BN approach can be linked to the voting approach, as described in references [14] and
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ]. In the former, BNs are used to evaluate the efect of a “k-out-of-m”, voting approach on
the performance of diferent sensor clusters chosen from a group of five sensors with diferent
technologies. Dependencies among technologies are also discussed, showing how they worsen
the results. In reference [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ], the same concept is used for a self-adaptive system: a case-study in
the domain of vehicle detection is used to demonstrate the approach, based on sensor detection
performance measured in a previous study.
      </p>
      <p>Based on the described approaches, we will leverage on the state-of-the-art in multi-modal
sensing, and we will employ inherently explainable probabilistic methods based on BN models
to dynamically evaluate sensing trustworthiness at run-time. To that aim, we will keep alive
design-time models, and explore paradigms such as digital twins and autonomic computing, e.g.,
Monitor-Analyse-Plan-Execute over a shared Knowledge. The final objective will be to address
safety integrity requirements and to set up appropriate model templates for the static and
dynamic verification of critical subsystems within TAS. The complexity of the threat detection
use cases in cooperative navigation scenarios that are included in REXASI-PRO will allow to set
up appropriate proof-of-concepts to develop and benchmark novel techniques for probabilistic
SIL evaluation within TAS.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Research approach, methods, and rationale for testing the research hypothesis</title>
      <p>The activities of the doctoral studies presented in this proposal are planned as follows:
i. PhD objectives, research questions and draft activity plan are defined in line with research
project objectives and timeline, but at more general and cross-domain level.
ii. Preliminary study on relevant methodologies and tools for machine learning, autonomic
computing, digital twins, and probabilistic safety analysis through Bayesian Networks
and their extensions is performed to build the necessary background knowledge and
modelling skills.
iii. Systematic Literature Review (SLR) is performed on quantitative methods for the design
and safety analysis of machine learning systems by using a sound SLR methodology and
reputable sources.
iv. Theoretical definitions, sensor characterisation, and system/environment uncertainty
classification underlying the methods and models discussed in Section 3 are provided.
v. Reference methodology development, REXASI-PRO architecture integration, and model
implementation are performed with the aid of existing libraries and templates of BN and
other Probabilistic Graphical Models as discussed in activity ii
vi. Tests with synthetic data and performance evaluation are carried out in order to validate
the approach by using appropriate real-world simulators and reference benchmarks.
vii. Methodology and models are applied to real-world use-case scenarios from REXASI-PRO
project (autonomous wheel chairs and drones), and thus tested and demonstrated through
a proof-of-concept in laboratory environment at TRL (Technology Readiness Level) 3-4,
by using project indoor and outdoor navigation and sensing data-sets.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5. Results and contributions to date;</title>
      <p>The first thre activities mentioned in the previous section have recently started and are thus
ongoing.</p>
      <p>An extended abstract with the author of the current proposal as first author has been
recently accepted as a poster contribution to the First International Symposium on Trustworthy
Autonomous Systems (TAS’23). In the work, the model described in Section 3 is presented with
a focus on trustable sensing systems within TAS.</p>
      <p>In addition, a SLR on quantitative V &amp;V methods for machine learning systems is ongoing as
a result of the first phases mentioned in Section 4.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>6. Expected next steps and final contribution to knowledge.</title>
      <sec id="sec-6-1">
        <title>Two reports are planned as part of the REXASI-PRO project:</title>
        <p>i. The first one (deadline May 2024) has a focus on design methodology for trustable sensing
ii. The second one (deadline December 2024) focuses on verification of trustable sensing.
Two papers on trustable sensing are expected to be published based on those reports.
At the end of the project and of the PhD, the following results will be achieved:
i. An experimental proof-of-concept (TRL 3), where the models are tested and validated in
a simulated environment;
ii. A lab-validated technology (TRL 4), where tests and validation are carried out in real-world
use-cases and scenarios.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
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