The article contains an analysis of the problems and prospects of the implementation of electronic voting in Ukraine through the prism of assessing potential threats. An expert survey has been conducted on the threats of implementing electronic voting during elections in Ukraine, which is based on the author's methodology for calculating the level of electronic voting security. Based on the expert assessment of 4 groups of security threats have obtained as a result of the expert survey, the author's assessment of the feasibility and prospects of the implementation of electronic voting in Ukraine was made. Elections, e-voting, expert survey, threats to e-voting, democracy, information security, SCIA-2023: 2nd International Workshop on Social Communication and Information Activity in Digital Humanities, November 9, 2023, Proceedings
Ukraine.
Information and communication technologies are becoming an attribute of the modern development of any civilized society, penetrating to a greater or lesser extent in all spheres of social life without exception. They create many new opportunities to make our lives more convenient and comfortable, information more accessible, and industry and production more efficient. At the same time, the development of information and communication technologies creates many security threats, ranging from increasing the possibilities of disinformation and manipulation to cybercrime and hacker attacks.
The political sphere is no exception to this rule, where the use of information and communication technologies makes it possible to make the process of communication and interaction between the government and society more effective and transparent. Today, such phenomena as e-government and e-democracy are becoming an integral attribute of modern socio-political development. In this context, the implementation of e-voting during elections becomes an urgent problem. At the same time, e-voting is characterized by a larger level of security threats, which can be explained by the key role of the election institution not only in the formation of the political elite, but also in determining the future vector of social development. Therefore, neglecting security threats in the context of the implementation of e-voting can not only destroy democracy, but also radically change the vector of socio-political development of the country.
For Ukraine, the problem of implementing e-voting is extremely urgent, taking into account the significant development of information
and communication technologies and the course of digitization of the country declared by President V. Zelensky. At the same time, significant security threats are extremely relevant in the context of the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine. On the one hand, they are related to Russian aggression against Ukraine, which potentially makes the future evoting system an object of Russian hacker attacks, especially in conditions of total disinformation and manipulation by Russia. On the other hand, the low level of democratic development of the states
2023 Copyright for this paper by its authors. CEUR
ceur-ws.org increases the level of threats from the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine, which can potentially contribute to the possibility of certain political forces using e-voting for the realization of their own political goals and falsification of the voting results.
Therefore, the issue of the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine is relevant and requires comprehensive research in the context of possible security threats. The problem requires a complex expert assessment with the aim of analyzing the level of existing security threats and determining, on the basis of this, the expediency or impracticality of implementing e-voting in Ukraine.
The work is based on and continues the publication of the authors entitled "Threats of the Implementation of E-Voting and Methods of Their Neutralization", in which the authors consider the main threats that may arise to the authorities in the context of the implementation of e-voting during elections. Having singled out 4 groups of threats to e-voting (threats to democracy; threats due to illegal entry; threats to technological integrity; threats to legitimacy), the authors proposed a formula for calculating the level of security (threat level) for e-voting, which should become an indicator for making a decision on implementation or refusal to implement e-voting in a particular country.
The author's idea provided that the proposed formula for calculating the security level (threat
level) for e-voting is determined on the basis of conducted expert surveys. Therefore, our article
contains a comprehensive analysis of the conducted expert survey on the feasibility of implementing
e-voting in Ukraine in view of the existing security threats [
The work also used some previous author's ideas related to special methods of personal data
processing during elections" [
Given the relevance of the research, the issue of e-voting and neutralization of security threats that potentially accompany the use of electronic vote detection systems has become the object of considerable attention from both Ukrainian and foreign scientists. As a rule, characterizing the existing research on e-voting in general, it is worth noting their interdisciplinary nature. After all, the study of e-voting and the existing threats to its implementation requires an understanding of both the technical features of the functioning of e-voting systems and the informational features of the modern world. In addition, given the fact that the institution of elections is a political category and an attribute of democracy, its professional assessment is impossible without the involvement of political science researchers in the analysis. Therefore, a qualitative and comprehensive study of e-voting should be interdisciplinary and, as a rule, involves the cooperation of scientists - representatives of various sciences and fields of knowledge.
Scientific researches devoted to the study of the problem of e-voting and the threats of its implementation can be conditionally divided into two groups. The first group includes scientific works that consider the problems of e-voting in general, or individual aspects of electronic expression of will. The second group includes the study of e-voting on the examples of specific foreign countries.
The first group includes, in particular, scientific articles devoted to such problems as: technical
capabilities and security of e-voting [
The first group of sources also includes a number of scientific articles devoted to the problems of e-voting and the mechanisms of their solution. It is, in particular, about the analysis of such problems of e-voting and ways to solve them, as the use of blockchain technology during e-voting to strengthen the security of voting [15], [16]; use of an advanced e-voting protocol based on public key cryptography [17]; the problem of confidentiality of elections and paper verification of results during the use of e-voting [18], [19]; the problem of using the voter's ID card and fingerprint technology during e-voting [20], etc.
The second group of scientific works includes researches that relate to the specifics and problems of using e-voting during elections on the example of individual countries or regions. In this context, it is worth mentioning, first of all, Latin American researchers who most actively cover this issue on the example of Latin American countries. Among them, there are works that relate to the analysis of evoting in a whole set of countries in the region, in particular, they contain an analysis of the threats and risks of existing e-voting systems in such Latin American countries as Brazil, Ecuador, and Colombia. The authors emphasize the need to take into account cultural, technological accessibility and social conditions in the studied countries when using e-voting [21]. It is also worth mentioning the research on e-voting systems in individual countries, such as Ecuador [22], Brazil [23] or Indonesia [24], [25].
In conclusion, we can state that the problem of e-voting is relevant and has become the subject of research by many scientists from various fields of science, especially in the context of the reliability and security of e-voting. However, modern science still lacks a comprehensive analysis of the threats of e-voting, as well as an expert assessment and calculation of the level of threats, which could be used as an indicator for making a decision on the implementation of e-voting or refusal to use it. In view of what has been said, the subject of our article is relevant and needs more thorough research.
As already mentioned, this publication is an empirical continuation of the authors' previous article,
in which they proposed their own methodology for calculating the level of threats that may be present
in the event of the implementation of e-voting [
This selection and coverage of expert respondents enabled the authors to obtain answers to various aspects of the implementation of e-voting and security threats: theoretical significance and practical value of the implementation of e-voting; political aspects that will determine the likelihood of evoting implementation and technical issues related to its use; the impact of e-voting on the level of democracy, etc.
Communication with the respondents took place through various communication channels, depending on the characteristics of the respondents and available contact information. The main communication channels were the following: e-mail; social networks Facebook and Instagram; Viber; Telegram; WhatsApp etc. 3.2. Expert assessment of the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine expediency and features of the
An expert survey on threats to the implementation of e-voting can be conditionally divided into two parts. The first one is devoted to general questions regarding the expediency, prospects and features of the implementation of the e-voting system in general, and in Ukraine, in particular. The second part contains an expert assessment of the level of danger of each of the security threats that will potentially appear in the event of the implementation of e-voting. In general, the authors, while conducting an expert survey, set themselves the final goal - to calculate the level of threats to the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine, which will be the basis for justifying the final expediency or impracticality of using this type of voter expression of will.
The first part of the survey has an auxiliary character, and also partially performs a verification role in relation to the second part of the survey. The results of respondents' answers to the first (general) part of the survey will make it possible not only to tentatively check the validity of the formula proposed by the authors, but also to understand the expediency and validity of its individual components.
According to the results of the survey, 42% of respondents (21 responses) were against the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine. Instead, 58% (29 responses) expressed their support for the idea of implementation e-voting in Ukraine.
If analyzed in terms of categories of respondents, the highest level of support for the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine was observed among public and political figures and politicians - 75%. In our opinion, this can be explained by the lack of a comprehensive understanding of the threats of e-voting and political expediency (the idea of introducing e-voting is popular among voters, so it can contribute to obtaining image bonuses for those politicians who will promote this idea.
From the obtained result, it can be assumed that the high level of support among politicians for electronic voting in Ukraine can potentially contribute to its implementation in our country. After all, it is the politicians who will make the final legislative decision regarding the application / nonapplication of this type of expression of will in Ukraine.
Instead, representatives of public organizations turned out to be the biggest opponents of the idea of implementing e-voting in Ukraine - 66.6%. This, in our opinion, can be explained by the fact that the mentioned category of respondents is most thoroughly familiar with all the nuances and problems that accompany e-voting. More detailed information on the level of expert support for e-voting is presented in Table 2.
voting (%) 40 %
Among the 29 experts who supported the idea of introducing e-voting in Ukraine, the majority consider it expedient to introduce such a variant of e-voting as completely remote voting using a smartphone or laptop. 18 experts (62.1%) spoke in favor of this type of e-voting. Instead, 6 respondents (20.7%) supported the idea of voting on a special electronic machine that will be placed at the polling station. Another 5 experts (17.2%) consider it expedient to use the system of optical scanning of ballots in Ukraine.
In the context of the research of the problem of the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine, it was important for us to get an expert opinion on the time frame within which it is possible to use the evoting system in Ukraine. The answers of 28 respondents (1 of the respondents who expressed support for e-voting did not answer this question) who supported the idea of introducing e-voting in Ukraine were distributed as follows: 5 (17.9%) respondents believe that e-voting in It can be implemented in Ukraine in 1-2 years; 11 respondents each (39.3%) supported the idea of introducing e-voting in Ukraine in a period of either 3-5 years or 6-10 years; 1 more respondent (3.6%) expressed the opinion that it will take more than 10 years to implement e-voting in Ukraine. 24 experts also answered questions about the shortcomings of e-voting, which stand in the way of its implementation in Ukraine. Respondents consider opportunities for correction of voting results by the Ukrainian authorities to be the biggest obstacle to the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine. This option was supported by 21 experts (87.5%). Experts consider the next most significant obstacle to be the presence of external threats that can nullify the result of willpower. 19 experts (79.2%) voted for this option. Interestingly, one of the experts additionally pointed out the possibility of cyber-attacks from the Russian Federation as one of the threats to e-voting. However, this threat, in our opinion, can be considered a component of external threats in general, which was one of the options proposed to experts as part of the survey of options.
Other disadvantages of e-voting, according to experts, are much less significant obstacles to the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine. In particular, the difficulty of understanding e-voting by Ukrainian voters was noted by 9 (37.5%) experts as an obstacle. Another 8 respondents (33.3%) consider the lack of necessary technological equipment an obstacle to the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine. 2 experts (8.3%) consider the excessive cost of this type of expression of will to be a problem for the use of e-voting in Ukraine.
In addition, 47 experts out of 50 answered questions about the potential benefits that the state and voters will receive from the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine. In particular, experts consider the speed of vote counting to be the greatest advantage of e-voting. This option was supported by 37 experts (78.7%). Another 34 respondents (72.3%) supported the idea that the e-voting system is convenient for voters. Other advantages of e-voting proposed by the authors have a slightly lower level of support among experts. In particular, 21 experts (44.7%) consider the advantage of e-voting to be increased turnout at elections; 17 experts (36.2%) – financial profitability of the e-voting system; 15 experts (31.9%) - positive impact of e-voting on ecology; 14 experts (29.8%) – reducing opportunities for falsifications and errors.
Experts were also able to offer their options for the advantages of e-voting. In particular, one of the experts attributed the prevention of falsifications to the advantages of e-voting, as well as the possibility for voters who cannot be at the polling station on the day of voting to express their will. Another expert noted that e-voting has advantages not only for voters, but also for the state. In addition, 3 experts believe that e-voting has no advantages at all. At the same time, 2 of them additionally justify their position: one sees that the reason for this is the criminal Ukrainian authorities; another justifies the lack of advantages of e-voting by the frequent changes in the electoral legislation in Ukraine. 3.3.
The second part of the expert survey aimed to find out the opinion of the respondents regarding the level of danger of each of the specific threats of e-voting, which were divided into 4 groups: threats to democracy; threats due to illegal interference; technical serviceability threats; threats to legitimacy.
According to the formula for calculating the level of e-voting threats developed by the authors [
Summary data on experts' assessment of the level of threats to e-voting are given in Table 6. SP(EV)
As we can see, according to experts, the most dangerous in the context of the implementation of evoting in Ukraine are such threats as hacker attacks on the e-voting system, as well as violations of free and public elections. Instead, the least negative impact in the context of the use of e-voting in Ukraine, according to experts, will be the complexity of e-voting, the quality of the Internet connection and psychological barriers to the perception of e-voting. 3.4.
Having received the results of an expert survey on threats to the implementation of e-voting, based
on the methodology developed in the previous publication [
Level of threats to democracy: Dem(EV) = (0,23х54,4+0,18х45,34+0,2х49,36+0,17х48,64+0,22х52,3)/100 = 0,5 Level of threats due to illegal interference: Int(EV) = (0,24х49,5+0,29х57,58+0,24х48.38+0,23х47,2)/100 = 0,51 Level of threats regarding technical serviceability: Tech(EV) = (0,53х43,6+0,47х38,6) / 100 = 0,41 Level of threats to legitimacy: Leg(EV) = (0,46х35,64+0,54х40,56) / 100 = 0,38
Having determined the level of expert assessment of each of the groups of threats to e-voting, we can calculate the overall level of threat, which will be potentially characteristic of Ukraine in the event of the implementation of e-voting:
ET(EV) = (0,5+0,51+0,41+0,38)/4 = 0,45
In the previous publication, the authors established the gradation of the level of danger of e-voting, distinguishing 3 levels of security:
Level 1 (values from 0 to 0.2) – low threat of negative impact of e-voting. In this case, the implementation of e-voting is possible and will not cause any significant threats.
Level 2 (values from 0.21 to 0.5) is an average level of danger regarding the implementation of evoting. In this case, the use of e-voting is possible provided that the most important shortcomings and threats are eliminated.
Level 3 (values from 0.51 to 1) – high level of danger, which makes it impossible to implement
evoting [
The aforementioned gradation of e-voting security levels will be applied to the analysis of the results of the expert survey. The characteristics of the level of threats in the context of the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine are depicted in more detail in Table 8.
after elimination of key shortcomings and threats
after elimination of key shortcomings and threats
after elimination of key shortcomings and threats
Summarizing, we can see that according to the results of an expert survey of threats to the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine, the situation regarding the use of e-voting is quite ambiguous. On the one hand, the general level of threats to e-voting is average, which does not prevent, according to the defined gradation, the possibility of its implementation in practice.
On the other hand, the general level of threats to the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine, although average, is close to the upper limit of its value. Moreover, one group of e-voting threats (threats to democracy) is at the extreme upper value of the medium level (0.5), while the other group of threats (threats due to illegal interference) reaches the minimum value (0.51) of the high level of evoting threats.
The results of the experts' answers contained in the first (general) part of the study showed the relative validity of the methodology proposed by the authors for calculating the level of threats from the introduction of e-voting in Ukraine. Such results of the expert assessment of the level of threats to e-voting in Ukraine correlate to some extent with the general attitude of experts to the idea of introducing e-voting. The fact that 42% of experts opposed the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine, in our opinion, roughly corresponds to the upper limit of the average level of danger of the implementation of e-voting. Also, the obstacles identified by experts that stand in the way of the introduction of e-voting in Ukraine are to some extent correlated with the assessment of the level of threats from the introduction of voting using e-voting systems in our country.
The results of an expert calculation of the level of threats to the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine showed that the system of e-voting is quite dangerous in Ukrainian realities. Therefore, the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine is possible only after a thorough and comprehensive analysis of all existing threats, the development of effective mechanisms for their neutralization and the comprehensive application of these mechanisms in practice.
Since the first two groups of threats (threats to democracy and threats due to illegal interference) are the most threatening in the context of the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine, it can be assumed that the level of threats to the use of the e-voting system will become significantly lower in two cases. First, the level of threats to democracy will be greatly reduced by raising the political consciousness and culture of citizens and representatives of the authorities. In this case, the authorities will be less inclined to falsify the results of e-voting, and ordinary citizens will have more control over the actions of the authorities, reducing opportunities for abuse.
Secondly, the neutralization of the external threat from Russia will significantly reduce the opportunities for illegal interference in the process and results of e-voting. Therefore, the democratization of Ukrainian society and the victory over the Russian aggressor can significantly reduce the level of threats to the implementation of e-voting in Ukraine in the future.