<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Archiving and Interchange DTD v1.0 20120330//EN" "JATS-archivearticle1.dtd">
<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>A. Esamaddin. DoS and DDoS Attacks at OSI Layers. International Journal of
Multidisciplinary Research and Publications (IJMRAP)</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>A model of a DDoS attack scenario on elements of specialized information technology and methods of combating cybercriminals</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Mykola Stetsyuk</string-name>
          <email>mykola.stetsiuk@khmnu.edu.ua</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Viktor Cheshun</string-name>
          <email>cheshunvn@khmnu.edu.ua</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Yuriy Stetsyuk</string-name>
          <email>yuriy.stetsuk@khmnu.edu.ua</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Оleksandr Kozelskiy</string-name>
          <email>oleksandr.kozelskiy@khmnu.edu.ua</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Abdel-</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Badeeh M. Salem</string-name>
          <email>abmsalem@yahoo.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Ain Shams University</institution>
          ,
          <country country="EG">Egypt</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Khmelnytskyi National University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>11 Institutska Street, Khmelnytskyi, 29000</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UA">Ukraine</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2019</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>3373</volume>
      <issue>8</issue>
      <fpage>0000</fpage>
      <lpage>0003</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>In this article, we present a scenario model of a DDoS attack on elements of specialized information technology. The proposed model ensures the finding of initial data for a comprehensive assessment of the stability of the functioning of a specialized information system operating under the conditions of the action of malicious software on its network elements. The approbation of the model and the simulation of the DDoS attack process in the environment of the MathCAD application program allowed us to conclude that the proposed model allows adequately, with a sufficient level of detail and flexibility, to display the simulated process, is sensitive to changes in input data, and allows obtaining consistent simulation results. as well as identify appropriate directions for ensuring the viability of specialized information systems. The resulting model allows you to estimate not only the potential capabilities of malicious software, but also the time it takes to implement a DDoS attack on network elements of information systems. The work also provides practical advice regarding the inclusion in the architectures of developed specialized information systems of hardware to prevent malware attacks.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>сybersecurity</kwd>
        <kwd>malware</kwd>
        <kwd>DDoS attack</kwd>
        <kwd>attack scenario</kwd>
        <kwd>stochastic network</kwd>
        <kwd>software vulnerability1</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>
        [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <sec id="sec-1-1">
        <title>Ensuring information security is an important aspect of the development of modern society.</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-2">
        <title>Due to the fact that confidential and secret information is processed and stored in information</title>
        <p>systems, this problem is relevant in the design and operation of specialized information systems</p>
        <p>
          The difficulty of ensuring stable operation of modern specialized information systems (IS)
has recently been constantly increasing due to more frequent cases of attacks implemented by
malicious software [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">2,3</xref>
          ]. These attacks are accompanied, as a rule, by information influences
on IS elements. Information influences are carried out by the offender using computer attacks,
which aim to make the functions implemented by specialized IS unavailable or difficult to
access. The result of the influence of malicious software is the blocking of commands, work
failures or the complete impossibility of IS operation [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
          ].
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-3">
        <title>In works [1, 4 - 7], the most famous types of computer attacks are given, where DDoS attacks (Distributed Denial of Service) occupy a special place. The prevalence of this type of attacks is due to the simplicity of their implementation and the serious consequences of their implementation.</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-4">
        <title>DDoS attacks can be implemented at almost any level of the ISO/OSI network protocol stack model used by computer systems for communication [8 - 12].</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-5">
        <title>DDoS attacks on levels 3-4 and 7 of the ISO/OSI model are the most popular among criminals [11, 13]. This is explained by the following reasons.</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-6">
        <title>At the 3rd and 4th levels of the ISO/OSI model, the object of attack is the elements of the</title>
        <p>network infrastructure, such as routers and others. A DDoS attack at the third level aims at the
transmission of a large volume of data (flood). The attack at the fourth level is carried out with
the aim of slowing down, and with the maximum effect - blocking the operation of the web
server. Loading the access channels of the web server will eventually lead to the blocking of
access of the client's automated workplaces to the resources provided by the specialized IS.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-7">
        <title>Even more dangerous is a DDoS attack at the 7th level of the ISO/OSI model [11]. The reason</title>
        <p>is that it is directed to the application server, which causes it to become overloaded and, to a
large extent, makes the functions of the specialized IS unavailable for its automated workplaces.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-8">
        <title>This type of attack is particularly difficult to implement and is characterized by high</title>
        <p>transparency for anti-virus software due to their similarity to useful traffic.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-9">
        <title>According to the National Cyber Security Coordination Center of Ukraine [1], in 2023, every</title>
        <p>fifth Ukrainian company or state organization experienced a DDoS attack. At the same time,
attacks most often targeted large banks (27%), medium and small businesses (15%). DDoS attacks
were aimed at creating problems in the operation of the main pages of the websites of both state
institutions (including educational institutions - the authors of the article directly observed and
investigated the actions of attackers on the electronic resources of the Khmelnytskyi National</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-10">
        <title>University), and businesses (39% of attacks), output failure of communication services, mail,</title>
        <p>communication, as well as functions that allow the user to enter the IS (19%).</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-11">
        <title>Experts of the National Cyber Security Coordination Center note that last year Ukraine took the leading place in the world in terms of the number of DDoS attacks on its specialized systems for various purposes.</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-12">
        <title>Thus, the task of assessing the capabilities of malicious software to carry out DDoS attacks</title>
        <p>on specialized IS is, along with others, one of the most pressing scientific tasks today.</p>
        <p>
          One of the most difficult and important tasks for evaluating capabilities, detecting and
countering the effects of malicious software is the selection of a mathematical model adequate
for the purposes [14,15]. Today, a large number of cyber security models are used in information
security tasks: models of a legitimate user and violator [12, 20], models of attacks [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          ] and their
detection [14], adaptive models of intrusion detection and countermeasures systems using
methods of intelligent data analysis (multilayer direct propagation networks, radial base
networks, recurrent networks and self-organizing maps, etc.) [15 - 17].
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-1-13">
        <title>This work is devoted to the construction and consideration of a model of the process of a</title>
        <p>computer attack of the type "Distributed Denial of Service" on the elements of a specialized
information system. The resulting model allows you to estimate not only the potential
capabilities of malicious software, but also the time it takes to implement a DDoS attack on
network elements of information systems.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. A problem to be solved</title>
      <p>Today, one of the most convenient technologies for building computer networks of
organizations and companies is the MPLS network technology [18, 19]. It combines the
technique of virtual channels with the functionality of the TCP/IP stack. This network property
is achieved by having the same LSR (Label Switch Router) network device act as both an IP
router and a virtual circuit switch. This makes it possible to combine territorially separated
parts of information systems of companies into single local networks, which is extremely
convenient. That is why the MPLS technology is chosen as the basic one when creating a
mathematical model of a DDoS attack.</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>We conduct research for the MPLS network, which consists of routers, switches, servers and</title>
        <p>client automated workstations of some specialized IS, which functions under the influence of</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>DDoS attacks.</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-3">
        <title>A DDoS attack is preceded by some preparatory actions. To a large extent, the success of the</title>
        <p>attack depends on the number of computers that make up the Bot network. Unfortunately,
today, such networks not only exist, but are also provided by criminals for rent. Therefore,
today the attacker has the opportunity to immediately focus directly on the object of the attack.</p>
        <p>As a rule, an attacker needs to conduct reconnaissance of the network of the information
system chosen for the attack by performing a number of steps. For this, he needs to determine
its active elements, type and versions of operating systems, as well as network services. We
denote the average time spent on this as  
.  ,


.
and  
. .  
with distribution
functions M(t), D(t), L(t), respectively. The attacker successfully implements these actions with
probabilities    .</p>
        <p>. .   . The calculation of these probabilities can be
carried out according to the method proposed in the description of the mathematical model of
the information security violator [20].</p>
        <p>If the attacker failed to set at least one of the network parameters, then his attempts will be
repeated with probabilities 1 −  
.  , 1 −  
.
and 1 −  
. .   , respectively,
where  
.</p>
        <p>is the average repetition time with the distribution function Z(t).</p>
        <p>In the next step, the attacker analyzes the received data and determines the vulnerabilities
of the elements of the attacked network in the spent average time   
  .  
distribution function K(t) and determines the connection requests to the server - attack targets
with the time
in the average time</p>
        <p>with the time distribution function Y(t) and the probability
connecting to the target server</p>
        <p>. , and receiving a response about its status after time</p>
        <p>with a distribution function U(t). If access is not obtained, the attacker sends a second
request in the average time    .</p>
        <p>with the distribution function V(t).</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-4">
        <title>To launch a DDoS attack, the offender activates the Bot network , indicates the object of the</title>
        <p>attack (Fig. 1). Each bot computer starts sending service requests to the attack object with an
average time  
.</p>
        <p>. with a time distribution function W(t).</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-5">
        <title>In the case of successful implementation of all steps, the attacker sends a large number of</title>
        <p>anonymous false connection requests through the Bot-network controlled by him, which lead
to the overflow of the server's RAM. Server overload, in turn, blocks the access of legitimate
client automated jobs of the attacked specialized IS. Such blocking of IS servers is carried out
during the average time    . with the distribution function N(t).</p>
        <p>The average time   
.</p>
        <p>. and the distribution function F(t) of the time of implementation
by the offender of the DDoS attack are to be determined. At the same time, we will assume that
the implementation time of all stages is random and characterized by an exponential
distribution, and all probabilities take the same values.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. DDoS attack scenario model</title>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Let us present the process of organizing a DDoS attack in the form of a stochastic network (Fig. 2).</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>The DDOS attack scenario may include a parcel in a special non-correal request server for</title>
        <p>an average time    . with probability 1 −    . ..</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-3">
        <title>This scenario is carried out under the hypothesis that the attacked server contains</title>
        <p>configuration errors or vulnerabilities known to the attacker. Successful implementation of the
attack script can cause the server to "hang" due to a buffer overflow, for example.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-4">
        <title>Taking into account the given scenario of a DDoS attack, its stochastic network will take the form shown in Fig. 3.</title>
        <p>Note that here: w(s), m(s), z(s), d(s), l(s), k(s), y(s), v(s), u(s), n(s) and o(s) are the
LaplaceStiltjes transformations of the corresponding distribution functions specified in the problem
statement and defined as:</p>
        <p>∞
ri(S ) = ∫ e
0
− st
d [Ri(t )] =</p>
        <p>ri
ri + s
(1)
where:
ri - the equivalent transformation function of the ith distribution function W(t), M(t),..., O(t);</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-5">
        <title>Ri(t) is the i-th distribution function of the average time t for the i-th stage of a Ddos attack;</title>
        <p>network (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3) with a fictitious branch  ( ) =
s is the change defined on the complex plane S, where the transformation ri(S ) exists.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-6">
        <title>To determine the equivalent function, we close the input and output of the stochastic</title>
        <p>1 where:
 ( )</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-7">
        <title>Q(s) is the equivalent function of the real resulting branch of the stochastic network (Fig. 2)</title>
        <p>assumption that the values of all probabilities   .  .,   .</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-8">
        <title>In our further steps, we will adhere to the DDoS attack scenario presented in the form of a stochastic network in Fig. 2.</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-9">
        <title>Let's define loops of the first and second orders in the stochastic network model with the are</title>
        <p>,   .   . ,   
.</p>
        <p>P
equal and equal to some value n .</p>
        <p>Then the loops of the first order Lk.n, where k = 1, n = 1 - 4 will be defined as:
L1.1 = m(s) ⋅ (1 − P ) ⋅ z(s) ;</p>
        <p>n
L1.2 = m(s) ⋅ d (s) ⋅ P ⋅ (1 − P ) ⋅ z(s) ;
n n</p>
        <p>2
L1.3 = m(s) ⋅ d (s) ⋅ l(s) ⋅ P ⋅ (1 − P ) ⋅ z(s) ;</p>
        <p>n n
L1.4 = y(s) ⋅ (1 − P ) .</p>
        <p>n
Accordingly, loops of the second order Lk.n, where k=2, n=1 - 3:
2
L2.1 = m(s) ⋅ (1 − P ) ⋅ z(s) ⋅ y(s) ⋅ v(s) ;
n</p>
        <p>2
L2.2 = m(s) ⋅ d (s) ⋅ P ⋅ (1 − P ) ⋅ z(s) ⋅ y(s) ⋅ v(s) ;
n n</p>
        <p>2 2
L2.3 = m(s) ⋅ d (s) ⋅ l(s) ⋅ P ⋅ (1 − P ) ⋅ z(s) ⋅ y(s) ⋅ v(s) .</p>
        <p>n n</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-10">
        <title>Using Mason's equation:</title>
        <p>k k
H = 1 + ∑ (−1) ⋅ Q (s) = 0 (2)</p>
        <p>i=1 k
where   ( ) are the equivalent functions of loops of the kth order, we get the equivalent
function of the stochastic network:</p>
        <p>Q(s, P ) =
n</p>
        <p>1
 2
v(s) ⋅ 1 + d (s) ⋅ P + d (s) ⋅ l(s) ⋅ P 
 n n
w(s) ⋅ m(s) ⋅ d(s) ⋅ l(s) ⋅ k(s) ⋅ y(s) ⋅ u(s) ⋅ n(s) ⋅ P</p>
        <p> 2  
1 - m(s) ⋅ (1 - P ) ⋅ z(s) ⋅ 1 + d(s) ⋅ P + d (s) ⋅ l(s) ⋅ P  − y(s) ⋅ 1 − P 
n  n   n 
,</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-11">
        <title>By definition, this is a characteristic function, so its differentiation will allow finding the first and second initial moments of the random time of the implementation of a DDos attack:</title>
        <p>.), which is defined as the second
D(t ) = −
p</p>
        <p>2       2
dds 2 Q(Qs(=s,0P, nP)n)  s = 0 − − dds Q(Qs(=s,0P, nP)n)  s = 0 .
0, _ if _ t &lt; 0
 α
F (t) =  t µ
∫ ⋅ t
0 Γ(α )
α −1</p>
        <p>− µ ⋅ t
⋅ e
dt, _ if _ t &gt; 0</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-12">
        <title>The calculation of mathematical expectation and dispersion allows to determine the time</title>
        <p>distribution function of the successful implementation of a DDoS attack as an incomplete
gamma function with sufficient accuracy for engineering calculations [21]:
where  = [ ̅ (  )]2 is the shape parameter and  ==   (  ) is the scale parameter Γ(α ) .</p>
        <p>( ̅ )  (  )</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Approbation of the model</title>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>Calculations were made using formula (8) in the environment of the MathCAD application program package, the results of which are presented in the graphs (Fig. 4). The values of the average time taken by the attacker to implement the steps of the DDoS attack are shown in Table 1 as the initial data.</title>
        <p>calculation, we will take its value equal to 0.75 - 0.9.</p>
        <sec id="sec-4-1-1">
          <title>In turn, the average implementation time    .</title>
          <p>The values of all of the probabilities are assumed to be equal to  
. 
. .,  
.   ,
  
  . Therefore, in the future we will replace them with the notation Pn and, in the
of a DDoS attack at different values of
the probability Pn is:
at Pn=0,75</p>
          <p>Pn=0,85   
Pn= 0,9   
.
.
.
implementation of a DDoS attack when it is successfully implemented with probability Pn.</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-2">
        <title>The analysis of the obtained results shows that the developed model of the scenario of the</title>
        <p>implementation of a DDoS attack by an attacker on the elements of a specialized information
system is sufficiently sensitive to changes in the initial data, allows obtaining consistent results,
adequately reflects the course of the computer attack and makes it possible to determine the
probability-time characteristics of the attacker's cyber influence system.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-3">
        <title>The simulation results show that the main influence on the success of the offender's</title>
        <p>implementation of a DDoS attack on IS elements is carried out through the parameters that can
become available to him as a result of intelligence of the IS network, through knowledge of
methods of identification and authentication of legitimate users.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-4">
        <title>To increase the security of IS against the cyber influence of the violator, it is advisable to</title>
        <p>implement the organizational and technical measures outlined in [21,23 - 26].</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-5">
        <title>As can be seen from the analysis, today the main threat to information stored in IS comes from the global computer network.</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-6">
        <title>Therefore, the structure of the computer network, on which the operation of the IS will be</title>
        <p>based, should provide for its division into local segments with access restrictions to them.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-7">
        <title>In such protected segments with controlled access, the server part of the IS and its client locations, which provide the basic functionality of the system, are placed.</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-8">
        <title>The use of managed switches with the function of creating virtual computer networks</title>
        <p>(VLAN) made it difficult for the attacker to explore the network he chose for the attack,
increasing the probability of its negative termination 1 −   .  ., 1 −   . , 1 −
  . .   , 1 −      and at the same time allowed:</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-9">
        <title>1. Protect the network from outside interference. A managed network switch port will be</title>
        <p>able to ignore and drop packets coming from other subnets, regardless of the originating
IP address.
2. Flexibly manage the separation of computers by virtual subnets, ensuring isolation from
each other, while their topology does not depend on where the network components
are physically located.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-10">
        <title>3. Ensuring the reduction of broadcasting traffic in the network. Each virtual subnet created</title>
        <p>is a separate broadcast domain whose broadcast traffic will not be broadcast between
different subnets, reducing the load on network equipment.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-11">
        <title>4. The division of the network into virtual subnets allowed us to apply our own security</title>
        <p>rules for each of them, which reduces the likelihood of a DDoS attack.</p>
        <p>It is clear that it is almost impossible to get rid of the destructive influence of malicious
software, but it is possible to significantly reduce its level using advanced countermeasures. As
an example, the company "NVisionGroup" offers a comprehensive solution for protection
against DDoS attacks based on Cisco Clean Pipes technology, which provides a quick response
to DDoS attacks, is easily scalable, has high reliability and speed. Cisco Clean Pipes technology
involves the use of Cisco Anomaly Detector and Cisco Guard modules, as well as various
systems for statistical analysis of network traffic based on data received from routers using the</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-12">
        <title>Cisco Netflow protocol. At the same time, Anomaly Detector and statistical traffic analysis systems act as DDoS attack detection systems, and Cisco Guard as a means of countering an already detected attack.</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-13">
        <title>Along with using the functionality of the latest network hardware, one should not ignore a</title>
        <p>fairly effective countermeasure, which is the elimination of software vulnerabilities at all levels.</p>
        <sec id="sec-4-13-1">
          <title>This leads to a sharp increase in the average time to find      .  . vulnerabilities and,</title>
          <p>accordingly, a decrease in the probability of successful completion of      .  .. This approach
is especially effective when used in conjunction with network monitoring.</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
    </sec>
  </body>
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