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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Arenzano, Genoa, Italy
$ francesco.greco@uniba.it (F. Greco); paolo.buono@uniba.it (P. Buono); domenico.desiato@uniba.it (D. Desiato);
giuseppe.desolda@uniba.it (G. Desolda); rosa.lanzilotti@uniba.it (R. Lanzilotti); grazia.ragone@uniba.it (G. Ragone)</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Unlocking the Potential of Simulated Phishing Campaigns: Measuring the Impact of Interaction among Diferent Human Factors</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Francesco Greco</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Paolo Buono</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Domenico Desiato</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Giuseppe Desolda</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Rosa Lanzilotti</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Grazia Ragone</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>University of Bari “Aldo Moro”</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Via E. Orabona, 4, Bari, Italy, 70125</addr-line>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2024</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>000</volume>
      <fpage>0</fpage>
      <lpage>0003</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>Phishing poses a significant threat to companies and public administrations. Mostly, this attack is perpetrated by exploiting social engineering techniques, such as persuasion principles and emotional triggers. Moreover, technical defenses alone are insuficient to protect organizations from these socially engineered attacks. Therefore, countermeasures that address human vulnerabilities are essential. To this end, we present a framework dedicated to assess human vulnerabilities of employees within an organization by using simulated phishing campaigns. In detail, the proposed work consists of two activities. The first activity explores the interaction between persuasion principles, emotional triggers, and user profiles. Such aspect has not yet been investigated in the literature and it may provide more information on the human factors to which users are most exposed during a phishing attack. The second activity will focus on designing phishing campaigns in which we will measure the efectiveness of emails considering the emotional triggers and persuasion principles used to scam the users, as well as the interaction between these two dimensions and the user personality traits.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;phishing</kwd>
        <kwd>human factors</kwd>
        <kwd>persuasion principles</kwd>
        <kwd>simulated phishing campaigns</kwd>
        <kwd>big five personality traits</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Phishing is one of the major cyber threats in our society, being one of the top initial access
vectors for cyber criminals [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. It afects companies and public administrations (PAs) on a daily
basis, with employees receiving malicious emails that appear to have been sent legitimately
by colleagues, managers, or the IT department asking them to take immediate action such as
clicking on a link or opening an attachment. In these attacks, criminals exploit users’ human
factors, which increase their susceptibility to falling victim [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Given the important role that human factors play in the success of these attacks, phishing
cannot be addressed solely on a technological level (e.g., by implementing automated phishing
detection mechanisms). For this reason, organizations typically conduct "white hat" phishing
campaigns to assess the company’s susceptibility to phishing attacks. By sending fake emails,
companies can estimate their exposure to attacks in terms of how many employees clicked on
the phishing links in these emails [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3, 4, 5</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        While simulated phishing campaigns provide organizations with a tool to quantitatively
assess their vulnerability to phishing attacks, they fall short in assessing the human factors
at play when these attacks are successful [6]. For example, personality traits of an employee
strongly impact their susceptibility to phishing [7]. Furthermore, the efectiveness of a phishing
campaign can be significantly influenced by the nature of emails it comprises. Persuasion
principles [8] are psychological techniques often used in phishing attacks, which can increase
the user’s susceptibility [9, 10, 11]. Phishing emails also often leverage emotional drivers, such
as creating a sense of urgency or fear, to increase the likelihood of users falling victim [12, 4, 13].
Although previous work has explored how individual user diferences [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">14, 15, 3, 16</xref>
        ] or the use
of social engineering techniques [12, 4, 13, 9, 10, 11] may afect the susceptibility to phishing
attacks, to date no approach comprehensively measures the interaction between (i) the users’
profile (in terms of personality traits), (ii) the use of persuasion principles and (iii) adoption of
emotional triggers in phishing emails.
      </p>
      <p>Our research proposes a new defensive solution in the context of the Italian national project
DAMOCLES (Detection And Mitigation Of Cyber attacks that expLoit human vulnerabilitiES),
which aims to develop a framework for the Italian Public Administration to assess human factors
in cyber incidents and mitigate their impact through security awareness and customized user
training. The ongoing work presented in this paper includes two main contributions. The first
part provides insight into the relationships between persuasion principles, emotional triggers,
and personality traits. To achieve this, a large-scale study will be conducted with over 1000
participants exposed to various emails that correspond to diferent combinations of persuasion
principles and emotional triggers. The study results will reveal the most critical combinations
of &lt;persuasion principle, emotional trigger, personality trait&gt; that make phishing emails most
efective for certain users. The second part of our research will build on the knowledge gained
in the first study to create more precise simulated phishing campaigns. These campaigns will
enable companies and organizations to evaluate the susceptibility of their employees to emails
that include (or exclude) the most efective phishing techniques for their profiles.</p>
      <p>
        Understanding the individual vulnerabilities of the employees can lead to take more efective
decisions from an organizational perspective, such as providing them with specific support in
the form of personalized training material to address their vulnerabilities [17, 18]. Furthermore,
with the right support and training, employees can become a valuable asset to the organization
and an efective line of defense against phishing (i.e., also known as crowd-sourced phishing
detection) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>The paper continues as following: Section 2 presents the related work on social engineering
techniques commonly used in phishing email and user’s assessment; Section 3 discusses the
2-phase approach we propose to measure the efectiveness of phishing emails and to assess
employees with a simulated phishing campaign; Section 4 draws conclusions and presents
future work of the project.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Related Work</title>
      <p>The causes of a phishing email’s efectiveness can be boiled down to two main factors: the
characteristics of the email itself and the characteristics of the recipient.</p>
      <p>Phishing emails often use Persuasion Principles to deceive users into clicking on phishing
links or disclosing personal information [8, 11]. Cialdini [8] identifies 6 persuasion principles
that are widely explored in the social engineering literature: authority, scarcity, liking, social
proof, reciprocation, and consistency. The use of persuasion principles can ultimately afect the
efectiveness of a phishing email, making it generally more deceptive to users [ 9, 10, 11, 19, 14].
Ferreira and Teles [11] identified a list of persuasion principles that are most prominent in
phishing attacks, which include, in addition to authority and reciprocation, integrity and strong
afect .</p>
      <p>Phishing emails often exploit core emotions: curiosity (or anticipation), fear (or anxiety),
greed (or desire), anger (or annoyance), joy (or excitement), confusion (surprise), and empathy
(or compassion) [12, 4, 13]. This is usually accomplished by including emotional drivers (or
triggers) that manipulate users and cause them to make irrational decisions [20, 21]. For instance,
when experiencing sadness, individuals tend to gravitate toward high-risk/high-reward options,
whereas those in anxious states prefer low-risk/low-reward choices [22]. In general, individuals
who are under the influence of "visceral influences" do not consider the ramifications of their
actions and seek immediate satisfaction of their visceral desires [23, 24].</p>
      <p>Emails that employ these social engineering techniques (either alone or in combination) are
typically more deceptive and can more easily lead users to become victims [9, 10, 11]. The
quality of a phishing email can be measured using the Phish Scale developed by NIST [25]. This
tool can help assess the dificulty of an email, in average, to be detected. This scale considers two
main aspects: the email cues (i.e., the observable characteristics of an email such as language,
presentation, correctness, etc.) and the alignment with the user premises (i.e., how closely
an email matches the work roles or responsibilities of the recipient). The stronger an email’s
premise alignment and the fewer cues it has, the more dificult it is to detect it as a phish. The
dificulty of a phishing email can be classified in three categories, based on the number of cues:
many cues (less dificult), some cues (medium), few cues (more dificult).</p>
      <p>
        Regarding the characteristics of the recipient (i.e., the user), there are a number of human
factors that play a critical role in influencing the susceptibility of users to phishing attacks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2, 26</xref>
        ],
including lack of knowledge, lack of resources, lack of awareness, norms, and complacency.
Another important factor that afects an employee’s susceptibility to phishing is their personality
[27, 28, 29]. Personality is undoubtedly a very complex factor to model; in the literature, the most
widely adopted model in the literature is the Big Five Personality Traits [30], which describes
an individual personality according to 5 traits: Openness, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness,
Extraversion, and Neuroticism. These traits have been shown to be stable over time, and
universally identifiable regardless of language, race, culture, or gender [ 31]. Other human
factors, such as gender and age may play a role in influencing a user’s phishing susceptibility,
but findings in literature are often contrasting [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]. Finally, emotions also play an important role
in the susceptibility of users to fall for phishing attacks [32, 33]. The efectiveness of persuasion
principles can be traced back to specific human factors. For example, extroverted individuals
are particularly susceptible to the liking and scarcity persuasion principles, while agreeable
individuals are particularly susceptible to the authority principle [34, 29, 35].
      </p>
      <p>
        Simulated phishing campaigns are typically used to deliver embedded training material
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">36, 37, 38, 3</xref>
        ]: employees who fall victim to a fake phishing email are redirected to a training
page that explains to them the risks of phishing attacks and why they should not trust the
phishing email they received [36, 37]. This approach has proved to be much more efective
than traditional frontal lessons, especially when the training material is embedded in warnings
[38]. However, Lain et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ] conducted a large-scale long-term simulated phishing campaign
in a company and gathered evidence that embedded training does not make employees more
resilient to phishing, but rather may actually make them more susceptible.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Assessing users’ phishing vulnerabilities with simulated campaigns</title>
      <p>The solution we propose in this paper will be carried out in two diferent and sequential
activities:
1. Design of a user study to measure the three factors that may influence users’ susceptibility
to phishing, i.e. personality traits, persuasion principles and emotional triggers;
2. Design of a simulated phishing campaign based on the results of Activity 1, i.e., the
correlations between the three factors and users’ phishing susceptibility. A web platform
will make it possible to apply the most efective combinations of these factors to test users
with challenging fake phishing emails.</p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>3.1. Activity 1: User study to discover correlations between user profiles and persuasion techniques</title>
        <p>To discover correlations between users’ profiles, persuasion principles, and emotional triggers,
we need to construct a knowledge base with data about the phishing susceptibility of users
(each with their own personality traits) to diferent phishing techniques. Therefore, a user study
serves as a means for gathering the data. This will be done by firstly collecting data about
the users to profile them according to the Big Five personality traits model by administering
the NEO Five-Factor Inventory-3 [39], a 60-item questionnaire to measure their personality
traits according to the Big 5 model. After a user profile of the employee is generated, the
users will be exposed to a set of safe and phishing emails. The phishing emails included in the
study will be crafted by applying diferent combinations of &lt;persuasion principle, emotional
trigger&gt;. The persuasion principle will be one of the 6 persuasion principles (i.e., authority,
scarcity, reciprocation, social proof, liking, consistency), while the emotional trigger will be one of
the 7 emotional triggers (i.e., curiosity, fear, greed, anger, joy, confusion, empathy), leading to a
total of 6 × 7 unique combinations.</p>
        <p>In addition, to improve the external validity of the study, the topic of the phishing email
is also varied, as done in [4]. The fake emails can be crafted by, e.g., following the modus
operandi of Gallo et al. [14], starting from real phishing emails to include a unique combination
of persuasion principle and emotional trigger.</p>
        <p>For each of the 42 combinations, 3 variants are generated to have a more solid knowledge
base. The variants are crafted to be of diferent levels of dificulty to include an additional
dimension in the measurements. To objectively rate the overall level of dificulty for an average
employee to detect an email, the Phish Scale [25] is used with the following scores: (1) low level
of dificulty ( cues category = "Many"), (2) medium level of dificulty ( cues category = "Some"),
and (3) high level of dificulty ( cues category = "Few"). This results in 42 × 3 = 126 fake emails
that will be sent during the study; a fake phishing email contains a link that, when clicked,
redirects an employee to a landing page where they are debriefed about the fake phishing email.
At this point, the information about which employee clicked on the phishing link is saved. To
avoid overloading users with too many emails, each of them will be exposed to a subset of the
emails (e.g., 10 safe emails, 10 phishing emails). Eventually, each of the 42 combinations will be
administered to an equal number of users.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>3.2. Activity 2: Design of a simulated phishing campaign to measure more in-depth human factors</title>
        <p>The findings from the previous study will highlight the most important interactions between
&lt;persuasion principle, emotional trigger, personality trait&gt; that, for particular users, maximize
the efectiveness of phishing emails. Building on the insights from the first study, the second
activity of the research presented in this paper will develop more accurate simulated phishing
campaigns. Through these campaigns, companies and organizations will be able to assess how
vulnerable their staf members are to emails that contain (or don’t contain) the most successful
phishing techniques specific to their profiles. To better illustrate this activity, we introduce a
scenario that describes how this approach could be practically applied in a PA. The scenario is
described below:
1. The National Institute for Social Security ("INPS", in Italian) is a PA with about 20,000
employees; faced with the ever-increasing risk of cyber-attacks, its IT director decided to
improve the organization’s defenses against phishing attacks by assessing the specific
human factors to which its employees are more susceptible to, with the subsequent goal of
addressing the specific deficiencies of employees through customized training programs.
2. 7 days in advance, employees are informed about the simulated phishing campaign that
will be conducted and its objective. They are also informed of the need to collect data
that can be used to create a profile, assuring them that their digital profile won’t be
directly traceable to them. These measures limit the extent of the ethical implications
that naturally come with a similar approach.
3. An initial model of the PA’s employees is created by administering the NEO Five-Factor
Inventory-3 [39], a 60-item questionnaire to measure their personality traits according
to the Big 5 model. To assess the employees’ initial ability to correctly recognize and
respond to phishing attacks, the survey-based Phishing Awareness Questionnaire [40] is also
administered. Finally, the employees’ risk-taking behavior is measured with the Balloon
Analogue Risk Task test [41], as higher risk-taking behaviours can negatively influence
phishing susceptibility [32]. The questionnaires are administered to the employees in the
workplace to ensure a more controlled environment.
4. A simulated phishing campaign has been designed to assess the long-term susceptibility
of employees to phishing attacks, spanning a duration of 3 months. In this context,
personalized phishing emails will be utilized, with a comprehensive approach tailored to
each user. Specifically, a total of 30 emails will be meticulously crafted for every personality
trait, drawing upon the top 10 combinations of persuasion principles and emotional
triggers associated with that trait. Each of these combinations will generate 3 distinct
emails varying in complexity. Consequently, throughout the campaign period, users will
encounter the 30 emails tailored to the personality trait identified as most influential for
them. This approach ensures a targeted exposure to a spectrum of psychological tactics
employed in phishing attempts, facilitating a robust evaluation of susceptibility over time.
5. The simulated phishing campaign is launched. On Day 1, the first email is sent. The
phishing link in the email redirects any employee who falls victim to a page where they
are debriefed about the fake phishing email. Here they are reassured that no consequences
will be taken against them, and that the data they will submit will be kept anonymous
(in line with what is done in [4]). The causes that led them to click on the links are
investigated by asking open-ended questions about (i) how did the email made them feel,
to qualitatively collect their self-reported emotions (as in [4]]), and (ii) what led them to
click on the phishing link (as in [42]).
6. After Day 1, the remaining emails are sent at intervals of 3 days to avoid predictability
(with an average of one email every 10 days). Furthermore, the minimum delay between
one phishing email and another is necessary to avoid priming the employees to more
secure behavior after exposure to a debriefing message (i.e., to reduce the expectancy
efect [43]).
7. A dashboard can show the current situation for all employees by reporting, for each fake
email sent, the percentage of employees who clicked on the phishing link. The employees’
personality traits are also displayed to highlight the correlation between them and the
phishing susceptibility.
8. At the end of the simulated campaign, the company can address the individual
vulnerabilities of each employee (whose identity remains undisclosed) by automatically delivering
customized training/security awareness materials. For example, if an employee is found
to be particularly vulnerable to the Authority principle used in IT communication emails,
they are provided with examples of fake emails that include that specific persuasion
technique; training material additionally suggests security measures to double check the
sender’s identity (e.g., the address of legit communications). Moreover, they are provided
with vital information such as some of the company norms (e.g., that the IT department
will never ask employees to provide their passwords) and useful contacts to consult when
they feel a communication is suspicious, so that they do not resort to alternative, less
secure, sources.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Conclusions and Future Work</title>
      <p>This work is part of the research conducted within the Italian national project DAMOCLES. The
main project ultimately aims to develop a framework for the Italian PAs to assess and mitigate
human factors in cyber incidents. This would make it possible to uncover factors that may be
overlooked in current cybersecurity training approaches and ultimately lead to better protection
in these organizations. One line of action to enhance user protection is customized training
that addresses the employees’ individual vulnerabilities.</p>
      <p>This paper contributes to the first step of assessing the user vulnerability by proposing a
methodology based on simulated phishing campaigns. This phase is only a part of a broader,
iterative approach, that involves a continuous assessment-training process to progressively
reduce an organization’s vulnerability to phishing (this methodology is also referred to as "Agile
Phishing" by [4]).</p>
      <p>Future work will include testing the proposed approach with user studies in a controlled
setting. Moreover, much efort will be put in studying how to craft customized training material
to specifically address one or more vulnerabilities. Another interest aspect to be investigated is
the expectancy efect, i.e., the extent to which an employee is primed towards a safer behavior
when they are aware that a phishing campaign is being conducted in the organization; analyses
to assess this bias may involve comparing the click-rate in emails with similar dificulty sent
with diferent delay from each other. While the proposed approach can certainly bring many
benefits to organizations in their fight against phishing, there is a major ethical problem with
collecting employees data in a safety critical context. Being able to identify each user and their
actions with phishing emails could put their jobs at risk. Therefore, future works must include
the development an anonymization mechanism to protect the user’s identity, while allowing
targeted interventions to improve their susceptibility to phishing attacks.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgments</title>
      <p>This work has been supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR) and by
the European Union - NextGenerationEU, under grant PRIN 2022 PNRR "DAMOCLES: Detection
And Mitigation Of Cyber attacks that exploit human vuLnerabilitiES" (Grant P2022FXP5B) –
CUP: H53D23008140001. The research of Francesco Greco is funded by a PhD fellowship within
the framework of the Italian “D.M. n. 352, April 9, 2022” - under the National Recovery and
Resilience Plan, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 3.3 - PhD Project “Investigating XAI
techniques to help user defend from phishing attacks”, co-supported by “Auriga S.p.A.” (CUP
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