=Paper= {{Paper |id=Vol-3713/paper-4 |storemode=property |title=Unlocking the Potential of Simulated Phishing Campaigns: Measuring the Impact of Interaction among Different Human Factors |pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3713/paper_4.pdf |volume=Vol-3713 |authors=Francesco Greco,Paolo Buono,Giuseppe Desolda,Domenico Desiato,Rosa Lanzilotti,Grazia Ragone |dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/damocles/GrecoBDDLR24 }} ==Unlocking the Potential of Simulated Phishing Campaigns: Measuring the Impact of Interaction among Different Human Factors== https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3713/paper_4.pdf
                                Unlocking the Potential of Simulated Phishing
                                Campaigns: Measuring the Impact of Interaction
                                among Different Human Factors
                                Francesco Greco1 , Paolo Buono1 , Domenico Desiato1 , Giuseppe Desolda1 ,
                                Rosa Lanzilotti1 and Grazia Ragone1
                                1
                                    University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Via E. Orabona, 4, Bari, Italy, 70125


                                                                         Abstract
                                                                         Phishing poses a significant threat to companies and public administrations. Mostly, this attack is
                                                                         perpetrated by exploiting social engineering techniques, such as persuasion principles and emotional
                                                                         triggers. Moreover, technical defenses alone are insufficient to protect organizations from these socially
                                                                         engineered attacks. Therefore, countermeasures that address human vulnerabilities are essential. To
                                                                         this end, we present a framework dedicated to assess human vulnerabilities of employees within an
                                                                         organization by using simulated phishing campaigns. In detail, the proposed work consists of two
                                                                         activities. The first activity explores the interaction between persuasion principles, emotional triggers,
                                                                         and user profiles. Such aspect has not yet been investigated in the literature and it may provide more
                                                                         information on the human factors to which users are most exposed during a phishing attack. The second
                                                                         activity will focus on designing phishing campaigns in which we will measure the effectiveness of emails
                                                                         considering the emotional triggers and persuasion principles used to scam the users, as well as the
                                                                         interaction between these two dimensions and the user personality traits.

                                                                         Keywords
                                                                         phishing, human factors, persuasion principles, simulated phishing campaigns, big five personality traits




                                1. Introduction
                                Phishing is one of the major cyber threats in our society, being one of the top initial access
                                vectors for cyber criminals [1]. It affects companies and public administrations (PAs) on a daily
                                basis, with employees receiving malicious emails that appear to have been sent legitimately
                                by colleagues, managers, or the IT department asking them to take immediate action such as
                                clicking on a link or opening an attachment. In these attacks, criminals exploit users’ human
                                factors, which increase their susceptibility to falling victim [2].
                                   Given the important role that human factors play in the success of these attacks, phishing
                                cannot be addressed solely on a technological level (e.g., by implementing automated phishing
                                detection mechanisms). For this reason, organizations typically conduct "white hat" phishing

                                DAMOCLES’24: First International Workshop on Detection And Mitigation Of Cyber attacks that exploit human
                                vuLnerabilitiES. Workshop co-located with AVI 2024, June 4th, 2024, Arenzano, Genoa, Italy
                                $ francesco.greco@uniba.it (F. Greco); paolo.buono@uniba.it (P. Buono); domenico.desiato@uniba.it (D. Desiato);
                                giuseppe.desolda@uniba.it (G. Desolda); rosa.lanzilotti@uniba.it (R. Lanzilotti); grazia.ragone@uniba.it (G. Ragone)
                                 0000-0003-2730-7697 (F. Greco); 0000-0002-1421-3686 (P. Buono); 0000-0001-9894-2116 (G. Desolda);
                                0000-0002-2039-8162 (R. Lanzilotti); 0000-0002-8853-8950 (G. Ragone)
                                                                       © 2024 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
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campaigns to assess the company’s susceptibility to phishing attacks. By sending fake emails,
companies can estimate their exposure to attacks in terms of how many employees clicked on
the phishing links in these emails [3, 4, 5].
   While simulated phishing campaigns provide organizations with a tool to quantitatively
assess their vulnerability to phishing attacks, they fall short in assessing the human factors
at play when these attacks are successful [6]. For example, personality traits of an employee
strongly impact their susceptibility to phishing [7]. Furthermore, the effectiveness of a phishing
campaign can be significantly influenced by the nature of emails it comprises. Persuasion
principles [8] are psychological techniques often used in phishing attacks, which can increase
the user’s susceptibility [9, 10, 11]. Phishing emails also often leverage emotional drivers, such
as creating a sense of urgency or fear, to increase the likelihood of users falling victim [12, 4, 13].
Although previous work has explored how individual user differences [14, 15, 3, 16] or the use
of social engineering techniques [12, 4, 13, 9, 10, 11] may affect the susceptibility to phishing
attacks, to date no approach comprehensively measures the interaction between (i) the users’
profile (in terms of personality traits), (ii) the use of persuasion principles and (iii) adoption of
emotional triggers in phishing emails.
   Our research proposes a new defensive solution in the context of the Italian national project
DAMOCLES (Detection And Mitigation Of Cyber attacks that expLoit human vulnerabilitiES),
which aims to develop a framework for the Italian Public Administration to assess human factors
in cyber incidents and mitigate their impact through security awareness and customized user
training. The ongoing work presented in this paper includes two main contributions. The first
part provides insight into the relationships between persuasion principles, emotional triggers,
and personality traits. To achieve this, a large-scale study will be conducted with over 1000
participants exposed to various emails that correspond to different combinations of persuasion
principles and emotional triggers. The study results will reveal the most critical combinations
of  that make phishing emails most
effective for certain users. The second part of our research will build on the knowledge gained
in the first study to create more precise simulated phishing campaigns. These campaigns will
enable companies and organizations to evaluate the susceptibility of their employees to emails
that include (or exclude) the most effective phishing techniques for their profiles.
   Understanding the individual vulnerabilities of the employees can lead to take more effective
decisions from an organizational perspective, such as providing them with specific support in
the form of personalized training material to address their vulnerabilities [17, 18]. Furthermore,
with the right support and training, employees can become a valuable asset to the organization
and an effective line of defense against phishing (i.e., also known as crowd-sourced phishing
detection) [3].
   The paper continues as following: Section 2 presents the related work on social engineering
techniques commonly used in phishing email and user’s assessment; Section 3 discusses the
2-phase approach we propose to measure the effectiveness of phishing emails and to assess
employees with a simulated phishing campaign; Section 4 draws conclusions and presents
future work of the project.
2. Related Work
The causes of a phishing email’s effectiveness can be boiled down to two main factors: the
characteristics of the email itself and the characteristics of the recipient.
   Phishing emails often use Persuasion Principles to deceive users into clicking on phishing
links or disclosing personal information [8, 11]. Cialdini [8] identifies 6 persuasion principles
that are widely explored in the social engineering literature: authority, scarcity, liking, social
proof, reciprocation, and consistency. The use of persuasion principles can ultimately affect the
effectiveness of a phishing email, making it generally more deceptive to users [9, 10, 11, 19, 14].
Ferreira and Teles [11] identified a list of persuasion principles that are most prominent in
phishing attacks, which include, in addition to authority and reciprocation, integrity and strong
affect.
   Phishing emails often exploit core emotions: curiosity (or anticipation), fear (or anxiety),
greed (or desire), anger (or annoyance), joy (or excitement), confusion (surprise), and empathy
(or compassion) [12, 4, 13]. This is usually accomplished by including emotional drivers (or
triggers) that manipulate users and cause them to make irrational decisions [20, 21]. For instance,
when experiencing sadness, individuals tend to gravitate toward high-risk/high-reward options,
whereas those in anxious states prefer low-risk/low-reward choices [22]. In general, individuals
who are under the influence of "visceral influences" do not consider the ramifications of their
actions and seek immediate satisfaction of their visceral desires [23, 24].
   Emails that employ these social engineering techniques (either alone or in combination) are
typically more deceptive and can more easily lead users to become victims [9, 10, 11]. The
quality of a phishing email can be measured using the Phish Scale developed by NIST [25]. This
tool can help assess the difficulty of an email, in average, to be detected. This scale considers two
main aspects: the email cues (i.e., the observable characteristics of an email such as language,
presentation, correctness, etc.) and the alignment with the user premises (i.e., how closely
an email matches the work roles or responsibilities of the recipient). The stronger an email’s
premise alignment and the fewer cues it has, the more difficult it is to detect it as a phish. The
difficulty of a phishing email can be classified in three categories, based on the number of cues:
many cues (less difficult), some cues (medium), few cues (more difficult).
   Regarding the characteristics of the recipient (i.e., the user), there are a number of human
factors that play a critical role in influencing the susceptibility of users to phishing attacks [2, 26],
including lack of knowledge, lack of resources, lack of awareness, norms, and complacency.
Another important factor that affects an employee’s susceptibility to phishing is their personality
[27, 28, 29]. Personality is undoubtedly a very complex factor to model; in the literature, the most
widely adopted model in the literature is the Big Five Personality Traits [30], which describes
an individual personality according to 5 traits: Openness, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness,
Extraversion, and Neuroticism. These traits have been shown to be stable over time, and
universally identifiable regardless of language, race, culture, or gender [31]. Other human
factors, such as gender and age may play a role in influencing a user’s phishing susceptibility,
but findings in literature are often contrasting [2]. Finally, emotions also play an important role
in the susceptibility of users to fall for phishing attacks [32, 33]. The effectiveness of persuasion
principles can be traced back to specific human factors. For example, extroverted individuals
are particularly susceptible to the liking and scarcity persuasion principles, while agreeable
individuals are particularly susceptible to the authority principle [34, 29, 35].
   Simulated phishing campaigns are typically used to deliver embedded training material
[36, 37, 38, 3]: employees who fall victim to a fake phishing email are redirected to a training
page that explains to them the risks of phishing attacks and why they should not trust the
phishing email they received [36, 37]. This approach has proved to be much more effective
than traditional frontal lessons, especially when the training material is embedded in warnings
[38]. However, Lain et al. [3] conducted a large-scale long-term simulated phishing campaign
in a company and gathered evidence that embedded training does not make employees more
resilient to phishing, but rather may actually make them more susceptible.


3. Assessing users’ phishing vulnerabilities with simulated
   campaigns
The solution we propose in this paper will be carried out in two different and sequential
activities:
   1. Design of a user study to measure the three factors that may influence users’ susceptibility
      to phishing, i.e. personality traits, persuasion principles and emotional triggers;
   2. Design of a simulated phishing campaign based on the results of Activity 1, i.e., the
      correlations between the three factors and users’ phishing susceptibility. A web platform
      will make it possible to apply the most effective combinations of these factors to test users
      with challenging fake phishing emails.

3.1. Activity 1: User study to discover correlations between user profiles and
     persuasion techniques
To discover correlations between users’ profiles, persuasion principles, and emotional triggers,
we need to construct a knowledge base with data about the phishing susceptibility of users
(each with their own personality traits) to different phishing techniques. Therefore, a user study
serves as a means for gathering the data. This will be done by firstly collecting data about
the users to profile them according to the Big Five personality traits model by administering
the NEO Five-Factor Inventory-3 [39], a 60-item questionnaire to measure their personality
traits according to the Big 5 model. After a user profile of the employee is generated, the
users will be exposed to a set of safe and phishing emails. The phishing emails included in the
study will be crafted by applying different combinations of . The persuasion principle will be one of the 6 persuasion principles (i.e., authority,
scarcity, reciprocation, social proof, liking, consistency), while the emotional trigger will be one of
the 7 emotional triggers (i.e., curiosity, fear, greed, anger, joy, confusion, empathy), leading to a
total of 6 × 7 unique combinations.
   In addition, to improve the external validity of the study, the topic of the phishing email
is also varied, as done in [4]. The fake emails can be crafted by, e.g., following the modus
operandi of Gallo et al. [14], starting from real phishing emails to include a unique combination
of persuasion principle and emotional trigger.
   For each of the 42 combinations, 3 variants are generated to have a more solid knowledge
base. The variants are crafted to be of different levels of difficulty to include an additional
dimension in the measurements. To objectively rate the overall level of difficulty for an average
employee to detect an email, the Phish Scale [25] is used with the following scores: (1) low level
of difficulty (cues category = "Many"), (2) medium level of difficulty (cues category = "Some"),
and (3) high level of difficulty (cues category = "Few"). This results in 42 × 3 = 126 fake emails
that will be sent during the study; a fake phishing email contains a link that, when clicked,
redirects an employee to a landing page where they are debriefed about the fake phishing email.
At this point, the information about which employee clicked on the phishing link is saved. To
avoid overloading users with too many emails, each of them will be exposed to a subset of the
emails (e.g., 10 safe emails, 10 phishing emails). Eventually, each of the 42 combinations will be
administered to an equal number of users.

3.2. Activity 2: Design of a simulated phishing campaign to measure more
     in-depth human factors
The findings from the previous study will highlight the most important interactions between
 that, for particular users, maximize
the effectiveness of phishing emails. Building on the insights from the first study, the second
activity of the research presented in this paper will develop more accurate simulated phishing
campaigns. Through these campaigns, companies and organizations will be able to assess how
vulnerable their staff members are to emails that contain (or don’t contain) the most successful
phishing techniques specific to their profiles. To better illustrate this activity, we introduce a
scenario that describes how this approach could be practically applied in a PA. The scenario is
described below:

   1. The National Institute for Social Security ("INPS", in Italian) is a PA with about 20,000
      employees; faced with the ever-increasing risk of cyber-attacks, its IT director decided to
      improve the organization’s defenses against phishing attacks by assessing the specific
      human factors to which its employees are more susceptible to, with the subsequent goal of
      addressing the specific deficiencies of employees through customized training programs.
   2. 7 days in advance, employees are informed about the simulated phishing campaign that
      will be conducted and its objective. They are also informed of the need to collect data
      that can be used to create a profile, assuring them that their digital profile won’t be
      directly traceable to them. These measures limit the extent of the ethical implications
      that naturally come with a similar approach.
   3. An initial model of the PA’s employees is created by administering the NEO Five-Factor
      Inventory-3 [39], a 60-item questionnaire to measure their personality traits according
      to the Big 5 model. To assess the employees’ initial ability to correctly recognize and
      respond to phishing attacks, the survey-based Phishing Awareness Questionnaire [40] is also
      administered. Finally, the employees’ risk-taking behavior is measured with the Balloon
      Analogue Risk Task test [41], as higher risk-taking behaviours can negatively influence
      phishing susceptibility [32]. The questionnaires are administered to the employees in the
      workplace to ensure a more controlled environment.
   4. A simulated phishing campaign has been designed to assess the long-term susceptibility
      of employees to phishing attacks, spanning a duration of 3 months. In this context,
      personalized phishing emails will be utilized, with a comprehensive approach tailored to
      each user. Specifically, a total of 30 emails will be meticulously crafted for every personality
      trait, drawing upon the top 10 combinations of persuasion principles and emotional
      triggers associated with that trait. Each of these combinations will generate 3 distinct
      emails varying in complexity. Consequently, throughout the campaign period, users will
      encounter the 30 emails tailored to the personality trait identified as most influential for
      them. This approach ensures a targeted exposure to a spectrum of psychological tactics
      employed in phishing attempts, facilitating a robust evaluation of susceptibility over time.
   5. The simulated phishing campaign is launched. On Day 1, the first email is sent. The
      phishing link in the email redirects any employee who falls victim to a page where they
      are debriefed about the fake phishing email. Here they are reassured that no consequences
      will be taken against them, and that the data they will submit will be kept anonymous
      (in line with what is done in [4]). The causes that led them to click on the links are
      investigated by asking open-ended questions about (i) how did the email made them feel,
      to qualitatively collect their self-reported emotions (as in [4]]), and (ii) what led them to
      click on the phishing link (as in [42]).
   6. After Day 1, the remaining emails are sent at intervals of 3 days to avoid predictability
      (with an average of one email every 10 days). Furthermore, the minimum delay between
      one phishing email and another is necessary to avoid priming the employees to more
      secure behavior after exposure to a debriefing message (i.e., to reduce the expectancy
      effect [43]).
   7. A dashboard can show the current situation for all employees by reporting, for each fake
      email sent, the percentage of employees who clicked on the phishing link. The employees’
      personality traits are also displayed to highlight the correlation between them and the
      phishing susceptibility.
   8. At the end of the simulated campaign, the company can address the individual vulnerabil-
      ities of each employee (whose identity remains undisclosed) by automatically delivering
      customized training/security awareness materials. For example, if an employee is found
      to be particularly vulnerable to the Authority principle used in IT communication emails,
      they are provided with examples of fake emails that include that specific persuasion
      technique; training material additionally suggests security measures to double check the
      sender’s identity (e.g., the address of legit communications). Moreover, they are provided
      with vital information such as some of the company norms (e.g., that the IT department
      will never ask employees to provide their passwords) and useful contacts to consult when
      they feel a communication is suspicious, so that they do not resort to alternative, less
      secure, sources.


4. Conclusions and Future Work
This work is part of the research conducted within the Italian national project DAMOCLES. The
main project ultimately aims to develop a framework for the Italian PAs to assess and mitigate
human factors in cyber incidents. This would make it possible to uncover factors that may be
overlooked in current cybersecurity training approaches and ultimately lead to better protection
in these organizations. One line of action to enhance user protection is customized training
that addresses the employees’ individual vulnerabilities.
   This paper contributes to the first step of assessing the user vulnerability by proposing a
methodology based on simulated phishing campaigns. This phase is only a part of a broader,
iterative approach, that involves a continuous assessment-training process to progressively
reduce an organization’s vulnerability to phishing (this methodology is also referred to as "Agile
Phishing" by [4]).
   Future work will include testing the proposed approach with user studies in a controlled
setting. Moreover, much effort will be put in studying how to craft customized training material
to specifically address one or more vulnerabilities. Another interest aspect to be investigated is
the expectancy effect, i.e., the extent to which an employee is primed towards a safer behavior
when they are aware that a phishing campaign is being conducted in the organization; analyses
to assess this bias may involve comparing the click-rate in emails with similar difficulty sent
with different delay from each other. While the proposed approach can certainly bring many
benefits to organizations in their fight against phishing, there is a major ethical problem with
collecting employees data in a safety critical context. Being able to identify each user and their
actions with phishing emails could put their jobs at risk. Therefore, future works must include
the development an anonymization mechanism to protect the user’s identity, while allowing
targeted interventions to improve their susceptibility to phishing attacks.


Acknowledgments
This work has been supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR) and by
the European Union - NextGenerationEU, under grant PRIN 2022 PNRR "DAMOCLES: Detection
And Mitigation Of Cyber attacks that exploit human vuLnerabilitiES" (Grant P2022FXP5B) –
CUP: H53D23008140001. The research of Francesco Greco is funded by a PhD fellowship within
the framework of the Italian “D.M. n. 352, April 9, 2022” - under the National Recovery and
Resilience Plan, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 3.3 - PhD Project “Investigating XAI
techniques to help user defend from phishing attacks”, co-supported by “Auriga S.p.A.” (CUP
H91I22000410007).


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