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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Conference and Labs of the Evaluation Forum, September</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Towards a Computational Framework for Distinguishing Critical and Conspiratorial Texts by Elaborating on the Context and Argumentation with LLMs</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Ariana Sahitaj</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Premtim Sahitaj</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Salar Mohtaj</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Sebastian Möller</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Vera Schmitt</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Berlin</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="DE">Germany</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Quality and Usability Lab, Technische Universität Berlin</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Berlin</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="DE">Germany</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2024</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>0</volume>
      <fpage>9</fpage>
      <lpage>12</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>The shared task of PAN 2024 addresses the need to distinguish between critical and conspiratorial texts in relation to public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. In early 2020, the pandemic caused a simultaneous rise in misinformation and conspiracy theories, leading to an 'infodemic' that increased societal insecurity. This notebook introduces an experimental computational framework leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for contextual and argumentative elaborations to enhance the classification accuracy of a reference DeBERTa base classification model. Our approach involves automatic annotations of intent and argumentation style, hypothesizing that these features aid in diferentiating between conspiracy and critical texts. Experimental results, however, reveal that DeBERTa performs best without these elaborations, achieving an MCC of 0.838 and F1-macro of 0.917. The inclusion of LLM-generated feature annotations did not surpass the baseline performance. These findings suggest that while theoretically valuable, the practical application of such elaborations requires further refinement. Future work should focus on optimizing LLM outputs and exploring alternative techniques to enhance text classification without overloading models with excessive information.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;Critical Thinking</kwd>
        <kwd>Conspiracy Theory</kwd>
        <kwd>LLMs</kwd>
        <kwd>Argumentation</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        In early 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic. Alongside the increase
in new infections, the COVID-19 pandemic also sparked a concurrent infodemic, in which fake news and
conspiracy theories spread even more rapidly than the actual virus [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4 ref6">6, 4</xref>
        ]. During the pandemic, Google
searches related to the efect of the virus on health and society saw a significant increase as people
sought information amidst the growing uncertainty. However, not only searches about the symptoms,
strains, vaccines were trending, but also concatenations of the term coronavirus with keywords such
as "5G", "laboratory", and "ozone" were extensively utilized during search. [19] The results of these
searches, a mix of reliable and (very) unreliable sources and information, contributed to a rapid spread
of critical questions as well as conspiracies on social media [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. Conspiracy theories are explanations
of events or situations that blame them on secret agreements between powerful groups, often relying
on a lack of evidence and pattern recognition to see connections where none exist, while promoting
a sense of secrecy and cover-up by hidden agendas. These theories are resistant to disconfirmation,
holding on to beliefs despite contradictory evidence, and often create an "us versus them" mentality,
dividing the world into believers and non-believers [21, 22, 27]. Critical thinking involves focused and
thoughtful decision-making, guiding us on what to believe or do. It aims to meet high standards of
accuracy and sound reasoning, avoiding quick judgments, unsupported claims, or biased reasoning [23].
The spread of false information and conspiracy ideologies has been amplified on platforms with a high
reach and minimal content regulation, among which Telegram has emerged as a significant channel
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. The danger of encapsulated communities such as private Telegram groups lies in their potential
to radicalize users through the spread of (fabricated) conspiracy theories backed by fake news [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7, 29</xref>
        ].
Fake news refers to information that is typically not verified and inaccurate and can be categorized into
misinformation (inaccurate information, no harmful intent), disinformation (inaccurate information,
harmful intent) and malinformation (truthful information used maliciously to inflict harm) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. When
personal beliefs about conspiracy theories are converted to real-world consequences, public safety and
societal cohesion is threatened [20]. For example, the spread of disinformation during the pandemic
resulted in anti-Asian racism, verbal violence, and violent hate crimes worldwide, falsely linking the
origins of the virus to conspiracy theories about Asian foreign influence [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8 ref9">8, 9</xref>
        ]. The protection of
public discourse is vulnerable when misinformation and disinformation threatens to undermine trust in
scientific knowledge and institutional measures, especially when critical voices are wrongly labeled
as conspiracy theories, potentially driving curious individuals to seek answers outside of oficial and
reliable sources [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16 ref17 ref18 ref6">6, 16, 17, 18, 34</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>The necessity to distinguish between critical questioning and conspiratorial thinking has led to the
development of the Oppositional Thinking Analysis shared task at PAN 2024 [31]. Here, teams are tasked
with classifying text as either one of the categories critical and conspiracy. The first category comprises
texts that critically examine public health decisions without endorsing conspiracy theories. The second
category comprises texts that contribute towards the idea that the pandemic or related public health
policies are the result of malicious conspiracies. Identifying and diferentiating between these categories
is crucial in mitigating the spread of harmful content, while preserving the integrity of public discourse
on social media and in the real world.</p>
      <p>The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews recent, relevant research on the task of
computational conspiracy theory detection. In Section 3 we summarize the provided dataset for the
shared task that has been used to train the models. We describe the conducted experiments, as well as
the expectations and hypotheses in detail in Section 4. Finally, the obtained results and the directions
for future studies are presented in Sections 5 and 6, respectively.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Related Work</title>
      <p>
        While there have been approaches for modeling computational conspiracy theory detection [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16 ref17 ref18">16, 17, 18</xref>
        ],
there is a gap in the literature for a computational framework that distinguishes between critical and
conspiratorial thinking [34]. Developing such a framework could enhance our ability to understand the
computational processes that underlie the creation and spread of conspiracy theories. Thus, improving
our ability to identify and address misinformation more efectively. We hypothesize, that the
diferentiation between critical thinking and conspiracy thinking, among other factors, involves an understanding
of the context in which a claim is made and how the claim is argued for [26, 25, 24].
Van Prooijen and Douglas address how societal crises afect the spread of conspiracy theories [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. They
argue that societal crises heighten the need for meaning among individuals, which can lead to a greater
susceptibility to conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theories target certain narratives with the intent to
mobilize supporters and coordinate them towards certain actions [28]. Thus, the intent behind such
theories often relates to providing simple explanations for complex events, ofering a psychologically
comforting sense of understanding and control during times of uncertainty.
      </p>
      <p>
        Douglas et al. further explore the psychological foundation of conspiracy theories, describing how these
theories serve to fulfill specific psychological needs, such as the aforementioned need for certainty,
maintaining a positive self-image, and maintaining control over an increasingly complex environment.
The authors highlight that conspiracy theories are speculative, resistant to falsification, and ofer broad,
internally coherent explanations that serve to insulate beliefs from uncertainty [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ]. These theories
often appear to thrive in environments where there is a lack of reliable information or when individuals
experience distress due to uncertainty.
      </p>
      <p>Gambini et al. conducted a comparative analysis of conspiracy theorists and random users on Twitter,
revealing significant diferences in their discussions, terminology, and stances on trending topics [ 32].
They found that conspiracy users often employ more extreme and intense language, such as "billgates",
"vaccinesideefects" , and "wakeup", compared to the more moderate language used by random users,
such as "coronavirus", "covid19vaccine", and "fakenews".</p>
      <p>Giachanou et al. investigated the psycho-linguistic characteristics of conspiracy propagators on social
media and found that conspiracy propagators tend to use more swear words and exhibit diferent
personality traits compared to anti-conspiracy propagators [35].</p>
      <p>
        To better understand the psychological basis of conspiracy theory acceptance, it is necessary to explore
the relevance to one’s individual analytical thinking ability. Douglas et al. suggest that conspiracy beliefs
are associated with lower levels of analytical thinking and education [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ]. Swami et al. investigate
how analytical thinking influences the belief in conspiracy theories. They find that individuals with
higher levels of analytical thinking skills are less likely to believe in conspiracy theories, due to their
ability to critically analyze the argumentation and evaluate the presented evidence based on the context
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ]. Their results suggest that critical thinking involves a more structured approach to processing
information, as opposed to the sometimes emotionally driven and less structured argumentation found
in conspiracy thinking [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Transitioning from analytical thinking to a broader understanding of human reasoning, Mercier and
Sperber propose that the primary function of human reasoning is argumentative. This perspective
suggests that reasoning is geared towards creating and assessing arguments for persuasion rather
than seeking truth, which can explain why individuals are prone to believe in and defend conspiracy
theories, as they seek arguments that support their preconceived conclusions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ]. More specifically,
this may imply that both conspiracy thinking and critical thinking employ distinct argumentative
strategies. Conspiracy thinking often relies on confirmation bias to reinforce pre-existing narrow
beliefs, while critical thinking is expected to emphasize the evaluation of evidence from multiple, more
open perspectives. Similarly, Ghanem et al. provide insights into fake news detection by modeling
the flow of afective information, which includes elements such emotion, sentiment, imageability, and
hyperbolic language [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ]. Their findings suggest that fake news, often serving as the foundation for
conspiracy theories [29], heavily relies on afective elements in its arguments. Thus, we hypothesize
that understanding the choice of argumentation within presented claims may be a useful predictor for
distinguishing between critical thinking and conspiracy theories.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Dataset</title>
      <p>The dataset as provided for the PAN 2024 shared task includes a collection of oppositional texts
extracted from the Telegram platform, specifically related to the COVID-19 pandemic, available in both
English and Spanish. Each entry in the dataset includes a unique identifier, the content of the text, the
overall category of the text as either CONSPIRACY or CRITICAL, and a list of useful annotations such
as extracted objectives or campaigners. In the context of this work, we only utilize the textual claim
without these annotations to investigate how much information can be extracted automatically from a
presented claim.</p>
      <p>Table 1 illustrates the dataset statistics, which reveal insights into the textual characteristics and
category distribution. In terms of text distribution, the average token length varies between English
and Spanish texts, with English texts having an average token length of 124.37 and Spanish texts
having an average token length of 258.42. The token length ranges from a minimum of 15 tokens in
English to 31 tokens in Spanish, with maximum token lengths of 1307 tokens in English and 1827
tokens in Spanish. The median token length is 87.0 for English and 189.0 for Spanish. The total token
count is 497, 489 for English and 1, 033, 663 for Spanish. Regarding label distribution, the majority
of texts in both languages are categorized as CRITICAL, with 65.53% in English and 63.45% in
Spanish. The remaining texts are categorized as CONSPIRACY, with 34.48% in English and 36.55% in Spanish.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Approach</title>
      <p>
        Our approach towards an experimental computational framework for distinguishing between critical
and conspiracy texts is based on the idea of automatically annotating specific characteristics, which
we hypothesize to have an impact towards the binary classification task. We follow the findings as
described in our brief review of related literature in section 2. Our first idea is based on the assumption
that conspiracy theories have a certain intent that may be interpreted as harmful as opposed to critical
thinking which should by definition be less destructive. We categorize intent as a specific piece of
information of the underlying (hidden) context of a claim. Our second idea is based on the assumption
that the tone, language, and structure utilized within conspiracies are diferent as compared to critical
thinking. We categorize these characteristics as a specific case of the argumentation within a claim. For
the automatic annotation of these two features, we employ an LLMs and our domain knowledge as
gathered from the literature review for prompt design in a few-shot setting. We use an open source model
to generate our feature annotations, as research should be accessible, and its components should not be
hidden behind closed APIs. Specifically, we utilize Llama3 70B 1 due to its incredible performance on
natural language benchmark tasks. Finally, we compare the generated annotations against the original
claim by feeding the individual and combined inputs into a standard DeBERTa [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
        ] classification model.
Figure 1 illustrates our computational framework.
      </p>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>4.1. Example</title>
        <p>To illustrate our approach, we consider the following claim from the original dataset, which we pass
towards to our LLM to automatically generate the described feature annotations.</p>
        <p>Claim: "Illegal aliens exempt from covid “vaccine” mandates because they can sue drug
companies (but you can’t)
https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-12-22-illegal-aliens-exempt-vaccinemandates-lawsuits-pharma.html"
Context Elaboration In our framework, context elaboration focuses on the specific case of identifying
the intent behind a claim, diferentiating potentially harmful conspiracies from critical thinking.</p>
        <p>For the given example claim, the elaboration mechanism identifies the intent as follows:
Intent: The intent appears to be to create a sense of injustice and anger among citizens by
suggesting that illegal aliens are exempt from vaccine mandates, while also implying that
pharmaceutical companies are avoiding accountability.</p>
        <p>Argumentation Elaboration Our approach to argumentation elaboration involves examining the
tone, language, and structural features that diferentiate conspiracy texts from critical thinking.
We postulate that conspiracies utilize distinctive argumentation strategies characterized by
emotional appeals, speculative assertions, and a lack of logical coherence. For the given claim,
the argumentation elaboration identifies the following features:
Tone, Language, and Structure: The tone is provocative and accusatory, using phrases like
’Illegal aliens’ and ’but you can’t.’ The language is inflammatory, implying unfair treatment and
using scare quotes around the word ’vaccine.’ The structure is geared towards sparking outrage
and misinformation, as it presents a sensationalized claim without providing balanced context
or credible sources. The inclusion of a link to a non-mainstream news website (Natural News)
adds to the overall conspiratorial tone of the claim.</p>
        <p>By analyzing and annotating the intent and argumentation of a claim, our framework targets the
experimental evaluation of these selected features for distinguishing between conspiracy and critical
texts. The intent analysis helps in understanding the possible motives behind the claim, while the
argumentation analysis reveals how the claim’s argumentation is presented. There are multiple dimensions
on which a claim can be analyzed and annotated - due to page constrains, we limited our approaches to
the above. In future work, we would like to thoroughly explore this concept of synthetic annotations in
the domain of conspiracy theory detection.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-2">
        <title>4.2. Experimental Setup</title>
        <p>We serve the LLM with vLLM [30] to benefit from eficient memory management and utilize two H100
GPUs for the generation of our feature annotations. Table 2 specifies the sampling parameters that we
utilized with Llama3 70B.</p>
        <p>The temperature parameter, set to 1.0, controls the randomness of the model’s outputs. A higher
temperature results in more creative outputs, while a lower value makes the output more deterministic.
The chosen value of 1.0 balances maximizes creativity, which can lead to issues with coherence. The
top p parameter, set to 0.95, is used for nucleus sampling. It ensures that only the smallest possible
set of words whose cumulative probability is greater than or equal to the specified value ( 0.95) are
considered for the next token. This maintains the diversity and relevance of the generated text. Diferent
combinations of the temperature and top p parameters provide a wide range of text styles, balancing
between randomness and coherence to suit diferent applications. These parameters should be
empirically evaluated and selected for a given model, task, and domain. We limit the number of tokens
generated in a single pass to 512. This is mainly motivated by the maximum input token length for the
classification model.
For the classification task, we utilize a standard training implementation based on HuggingFace
Transformers and PyTorch Lightning. Table 3 specifies the training parameters. We utilize an AdamW
optimizer with a learning rate of 3 − 5 and cross-entropy loss. The model is trained for 5 epochs
with a dropout of 0.05 and a batch size of 20 on each mode. The model of the epoch with the highest
validation metrics is utitized for testing.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-3">
        <title>4.3. Expectations and Hypotheses</title>
        <p>Our initial hypothesis was that providing DeBERTa with richer context and well-structured
argumentation would enhance its ability to classify texts accurately. We anticipated that the elaborations would
clarify the diferences between critical and conspiracy texts, leading to higher evaluation scores.
Specifically, we expected the context elaboration to improve the model’s understanding of the background
and intent of the texts, while the argumentation elaboration was expected to highlight logical flows
and key points, aiding in the diferentiation process.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5. Experiments and Results</title>
      <p>To evaluate our approach, we conducted a series of experiments comparing the performance of DeBERTa
with and without the elaborations by LLMs. We utilized metrics such as the Matthews Correlation
Coeficient (MCC) and F1 scores for our comparison.</p>
      <sec id="sec-5-1">
        <title>5.1. Dataset Split</title>
        <p>The oficial training data as provided for the shared task is split into three sets: 80% for training, 10% for
validation, and 10% for testing. This split ensures that a model has a suficient amount of data to learn
from, while also allowing for robust testing and validation within our presented setting. As the oficial
testing data of the shared task is held out, comparison to other approaches can be made only on the
oficial workshop leaderboard.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-2">
        <title>5.2. Performance Comparison</title>
        <p>We evaluated the performance of DeBERTa with two diferent elaboration approaches and compared it to
our baseline DeBERTa model. The baseline has only been trained on the claims, while the other models
have either been trained on the elaborations alone or on the concatenations of claim and respective
elaborations. Here we present the performance metrics for the various models, focusing on our test set results.
The DeBERTa baseline performance served as our reference during development. The base DeBERTa
model achieves an MCC of 0.83777 and an F1-macro of 0.91733. For the context elaboration of
the intent, we observed that excluding the claim (Context w/o) led to a drop in performance (MCC:
0.73084, F1-macro: 0.86396). However, including the claim (Context w/) improved the results (MCC:
0.82685, F1-macro: 0.91268), but still did not surpass the performance of the claim classified by DeBERTa
alone. Similarly, argumentation elaboration on the tone, language, and structure without the claim
(Argumentation w/o) resulted in lower performance (MCC: 0.77229, F1-macro: 0.88482). Including the
claim (Argumentation w/) improved the metrics (MCC: 0.82115, F1-macro: 0.9104), but again, it did
not outperform the claim elaboration. Both context and argumentation elaborations showed improved
results when the claim was included, yet neither surpassed the baseline performance of the claim
alone. Potential reasons for lack of improvements could be due to overloading the classification models
with too long elaborations that should have been controlled with a lower max token parameter during
generation. While the elaboration annotations seem to provide interesting analyses of the presented
claims, their impact on the results is not as expected.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>6. Conclusion</title>
      <p>Despite our eforts to enhance our reference model’s performance through the use of LLM-generated
context and argumentation elaborations, our findings demonstrate that DeBERTa alone, without these
additional elaborations, was more efective in accurately categorizing texts. Theoretical frameworks
suggesting the benefits of enhanced context and arguments did not translate into practical improvements
in our experiments. This suggests that the practical application of these enhancements requires further
refinement and optimization to be efective in improving text classification performance. Future
work could focus on more targeted and refined elaborations, better alignment of LLM outputs with the
classification task, and exploring other techniques to enhance model performance without overwhelming
a model with excessive information.
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