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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">1613-0073</issn>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Prior to Trust: Frequentist and Bayesian views of Trust in AI</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Mattia Petrolo</string-name>
          <email>mpetrolo@fc.ul.pt</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Ekaterina Kubyshkina</string-name>
          <email>ekaterina.kubyshkina@unimi.it</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Giuseppe Primiero</string-name>
          <email>giuseppe.primiero@unimi.it</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Workshop</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="editor">
          <string-name>Trustworthy AI, Reliable AI, Statistical inference</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Logic, Uncertainty, Computation and Information Lab, PhilTech Research Center, Philosophy Department, University of Milan</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>University of Lisbon, CFCUL, Alameda da Universidade</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>1649-004 Lisbon</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="PT">Portugal</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>Via Festa del Perdono</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>7 20122, Milan</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="IT">Italy</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>The notions of trust and trustworthiness in the field of AI are currently the focus of a collective, interdisciplinary efort for clarification. In this work, we contribute to this ongoing debate by identifying two senses in which an agent might place trust in an AI system. The first sense, referring to trustworthiness as formalised in previous work, considers the results of tests conducted on the system alongside the agent's expectations. The second sense, extends the former by factoring in the agent's “pragmatic” background when considering these tests. We argue that these two forms of trust can be understood in relation to well-known approaches in statistical inference: the ifrst aligns with a frequentist interpretation, while the second reflects a Bayesian view of trust.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        The concepts of trust and trustworthiness in AI are currently the subject of an interdisciplinary efort
of conceptual, formal and procedural clarification. This is evident from the increasing attention these
notions are receiving across various fields of research. AI engineers, for instance, are working to
incorporate properties into AI systems to enhance their trustworthiness (see, e.g., [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]). Meanwhile,
philosophers are engaged in defining Trustworthy AI (TAI), exploring its epistemological and ethical
implications, and debating whether it is even possible to discuss TAI without committing a categorical
mistake (see, e.g., [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ], and [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ] for a critical discussion). Logicians, on the other hand, are developing
formal systems to capture the complex and elusive concepts of trust and TAI (see, e.g., [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]). Finally,
sociologists are examining the societal impacts of trusting AI-based technologies (see, e.g., [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]).
      </p>
      <p>
        The challenge of understanding trust and trustworthiness in AI is not purely theoretical. The widely
discussed European proposal for the Artificial Intelligence Act [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ], inspired by the Ethics Guidelines
for Trustworthy AI [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ], stipulates that AI systems and the information they generate must be reliable,
transparent, and trustworthy, among other things. However, these terms have distinct and not always
shared definitions. This lack of clarity, and the absence of a solid theoretical foundation, is source of
potential misunderstandings that could afect the social perception of AI systems. Without a clear
definition of these concepts, there is a genuine risk that the Guidelines and the AI Act may lack the
practical relevance necessary for meaningful implementation. Given that these frameworks aim to
regulate issues of critical importance to human well-being and governance, a deeper analysis and
clarification of the notions of trust and trustworthiness in AI is essential.
      </p>
      <p>In this paper, we contribute to this ongoing debate by identifying two senses in which an agent
might place trust in an AI system. The first sense considers the results of tests conducted on the
system alongside the agent’s expectations. The second extends the former by factoring in the agent’s
“pragmatic” background when considering these tests. We argue that these two forms of trust can</p>
      <p>CEUR</p>
      <p>ceur-ws.org
be understood in relation to well-known approaches in statistical inference: the first aligns with a
frequentist interpretation, while the second reflects a Bayesian view of trust.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Two accounts of trust in AI systems</title>
      <p>
        When it comes to trusting an AI system, particularly a Machine Learning (ML) system, there are at least
two distinct ways in which an agent can do so. To illustrate this, we borrow and slightly modify an
example from [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. Let us consider a simple example. Imagine a classifier  designed to identify pictures
of wolves, and assume that  has already been evaluated as trustworthy according to some relevant
metrics. Now, suppose we present two images to the classifier: one of a wolf and the other of a Siberian
Husky. Upon processing,  classifies both images as wolves. Let us now consider two agents,  1 and
 2, both aware that  has been deemed trustworthy, and both receiving the same classification output.
The only diference between the two agents is that  2 is an expert dog trainer, while  1 is not. At
this point, their reactions diverge:  1 trusts the output, while  2 does not. How can we explain the
diference in their responses?
      </p>
      <p>
        To address this, let us first examine what allows  1 to trust  . We will assume some conditions
we consider necessary for  to be considered trustworthy. In the following we assume a notion of
trustworthiness for non-deterministic computational system as the one proposed in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. In
this framework, a trustworthy non-deterministic process for a given output is defined as one where
the frequency of that output, over a specified number of trials, does not deviate beyond an acceptable
threshold from its expected probability. This understanding relies on a series of tests performed on
the system and the alignment of these tests with the expectations an agent has regarding the system’s
behavior. Note that this interpretation is not necessarily constrained to a sharp measure of probability
and could be extended naturally to a graded version. In this context, trustworthiness is always indexed
by both an agent and an output. Diferent agents may have (or assume) varying expectations about
a system’s performance, leading them to assess the trustworthiness of the same system diferently.
Similarly, a system may be deemed trustworthy for certain outputs but not for others. For example, a
ML system might be well-trained to provide accurate answers about historical events, but not about
current events. Thus, it can be considered trustworthy in relation to historical outputs while being
untrustworthy for current ones. Necessary conditions for this notion of trustworthiness to induce an
epistemic state are: first,  1 knows that  is trustworthy – meaning that the behavior displayed by
 is as expected by the agent in any epistemic scenario; and second,  1 has an evidence for  being
trustworthy, giving them a justification to accept the output as correct. With this understanding, we
can characterize a first form of trust in an AI system, which we will refer to as   1:
An agent    1 an AI system  if
 has an evidence that  produces an output in accordance with the behavior of  as expected by  .
      </p>
      <p>
        This notion of trust is widely referenced in the literature on evaluating AI trustworthiness (see, for
example, [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]). In this context, trustworthiness is viewed as a crucial component, while other aspects of
trust are set aside.
      </p>
      <p>Let us return to our example of the classifier and examine the reasons why the second agent,  2,
might not trust the classifier, unlike the first agent,  1. Assume that both agents possess the same
knowledge about  . However,  2 may have additional beliefs regarding the potential inaccuracies
of the output, even if they acknowledge that such inaccuracies are expected. We argue that these
additional beliefs, which lead to the divergence in trust between  1 and  2, stem from the specific
pragmatic background of  2. By pragmatic background, we refer to the set of beliefs an agent holds
prior to interacting with the AI system. These beliefs may be shaped by various factors, including
education, experience, cultural context, and moral or ethical principles. Based on this understanding,
we can characterize this extended form of trust in an AI system, which we will refer to as   2:
An agent    2 an AI system  if
   1  and the output of  is compatible with the pragmatic background of the agent.</p>
      <p>As evident from the previous characterization,   2 extends   1 by incorporating an agent’s belief
set and comparing it with the output provided by the AI system. With the definitions of   1 and
  2 established, let us revisit our motivating example of the classifier and compare the two forms of
trust held by  1 and  2.</p>
      <p>Viewing the example through the lens of these definitions, we can assert that  1   1  to classify
both pictures as wolves. Furthermore,  1 also   2  for the same classification, because the received
output does not contradict their pragmatic background. In contrast, while  2   1  to classify both
pictures as wolves, their situation diverges.  2 does not   2  for this classification. This divergence
may stem, for instance, from  2’s background as a dog trainer who has previously trained a Siberian
Husky. In this context, a single error from  does not undermine its overall trustworthiness, and  2 is
aware of this. Thus,  2 maintains   1 in  . However,  2 recognizes the Siberian Husky and believes,
based on their education and experience, that a Siberian Husky is not a wolf. Consequently, they would
not base further reasoning or actions on this erroneous output. In this sense,  2 does not   2  , as
the output contradicts their pragmatic background.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Trust in AI via statistical inference</title>
      <p>As evident from our definitions of   1 and   2, these notions are not mutually exclusive; rather,
  1 is included in   2. The primary distinction is that while   1 is based solely on the calculation of
the correspondence between data obtained from a suficient number of tests and an agent’s expectations
about an AI system,   2 incorporates the agent’s overall background into the reasoning process. From
this perspective, we argue that the two kinds of trust discussed in this article naturally correspond to
two forms of statistical inference: frequentist and Bayesian approaches.</p>
      <p>
        Frequentists define the probability of an event as the limit of its relative frequency over a large
number of trials, whereas Bayesians extend probabilities to account for varying degrees of certainty
about statements (see, e.g., [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ] for more details). The fundamental diference between these approaches
lies in their treatment of probabilities: frequentists analyze probabilities purely as calculations based
on data located on a sample space of possible outcomes, while Bayesians include the dimension of an
agent’s knowledge about that data.
      </p>
      <p>
        As previously noted,   1 relies on the knowledge of a system’s trustworthiness, as discussed in
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. In this context, trustworthiness is established through a post-hoc verification strategy
that evaluates the reliability of an AI system’s behavior in statistical terms, alongside adherence to an
evaluation criterion (see [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ]). Specifically, this verification employs two specific comparison terms.
First, it uses a formal expression to denote the observable behavior of a (possibly) non-deterministic
system over a finite number of executions. Second, it incorporates a transparent model of the expected
behavior, which is normatively or ethically desirable based on the observed model and the input data.
This second model serves as a benchmark for evaluating the first observed model, and the formal
verification process measures the distance between the two models. From this perspective, assessing
trustworthiness is fundamentally tied to considering the  -value of the results in frequentist terms.
This means measuring the probability of obtaining the observed results under the assumption that
the null hypothesis is true. This hypothesis posits that there is no statistically significant relationship
between two sets of data. In this context, it emphasizes the need to evaluate trustworthiness based on a
suficient number of distinct tests performed on the system.
      </p>
      <p>Let us reconsider our example in frequentist terms. In order to establish   1 an agent takes into
account the probability of getting a result which identifies wolf as wolf (lets dub it Result), during a
suficient number of tests ( Data):
 () =
#
#</p>
      <p>Then, the agent verifies whether  () matches an acceptable threshold against the expected
probability for # . In our example, both agents evaluate that the observed frequency of Result sits
within an acceptable threshold compared to its theoretical counterpart, thereby inferring trustworthiness.
Notice, that even though for  2 the output was not accounted in the number of Result, the diference is
so insignificant that  () still matched an acceptable threshold.</p>
      <p>Since   1 is included within   2, trustworthiness – and, by extension, frequentist statistical
reasoning – plays a significant role in establishing   2. However, a distinguishing feature of   2 is
its incorporation of the agent’s pragmatic background in the evaluation. This pragmatic background
reflects the current state of the agent’s knowledge, not only regarding the results of testing an AI system
(i.e., the data) but also encompassing prior information and hypotheses about the system and acceptable
outcomes. From this perspective, the pragmatic background can be viewed as a prior probability, which
represents the probability assigned to an output before receiving the relevant information. In this broad
sense of pragmatic background,   2 seems to align with a Bayesian interpretation of the probability
of the output, as it incorporates the dimension of the agent’s prior credence or degree of the agent’s
beliefs, which can be updated subsequently.</p>
      <p>Returning to our example of the classifier  , we can say that  1 and  2 establish their   1 in 
based on the overall trustworthy behavior of the classifier, which is measured in frequentist terms. In
the case of   2, however, the agents  1 and  2 appear to have diferent priors –specifically, difering
knowledge and assumptions about dogs and wolves – which influences their attitudes toward the
output. From this perspective, we notice that the conditional belief (posterior belief in Bayesian terms)
of  1 and  2 difers, once it is calculated via Bayes’ theorem:</p>
      <p>( ∣ ) ×  ()
 ( ∣ ) = ,
 ()
that is the conditional belief in event ( ( ∣ ) ) is calculated by multiplying prior belief of the
agent by the likelihood  ( ∣ ) that  will occur if  is true. Clearly,  ( ∣ )
would be significantly diferent for  1 and  2, given that  () is diferent for them, as well as the
likelihood for  1 is much higher than the one for  2.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Conclusion</title>
      <p>The association of the two forms of trust we introduced with established methods of statistical inference
supports the distinction between   1 and   2. These forms of trust allow for a focus on diferent
objectives when evaluating an AI system. Specifically,   1 can be seen as measuring the reliability of
a system with respect to a benchmark, while   2 involves an agent’s attitudes and hypotheses, which
may not be directly tied to the AI system itself. A notable aspect of our analysis is the relationship
between trust and trustworthiness, where trust inherently presupposes trustworthiness. In our
framework, trustworthiness is always relative to the agent. From this perspective, it seems natural to assert
that if an agent trusts an AI system, they must perceive it as trustworthy. However, the reverse is not
necessarily true: an agent may consider a system trustworthy without actually placing their trust in
it. Formally, both   1 and   2 can be applied depending on the desired level of abstraction in the
model. The development of a formal framework to represent these two types of trust remains a topic
for future research.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgments</title>
      <p>The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments. All authors acknowledge
the support of the Project PRIN2020 BRIO - Bias, Risk and Opacity in AI (2020SSKZ7R) awarded by
the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR). Giuseppe Primiero is further funded through
the project PRIN2022 SMARTEST - Simulation of Probabilistic Systems for the Age of the Digital
Twin (2022E8Y4X) awarded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR). The research of
Ekaterina Kubyshkina is funded under the “Foundations of Fair and Trustworthy AI” Project of the
University of Milan. Giuseppe Primiero and Ekaterina Kubyshkina are further funded by the Department
of Philosophy “Piero Martinetti” of the University of Milan under the Project “Departments of Excellence
2023-2027” awarded by the Ministry of University and Research (MUR). Mattia Petrolo acknowledges
the financial support of the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (2022.08338.CEECIND; R&amp;D
Unit Grants UIDB/00678/2020 and UIDP/00678/2020) and the French National Research Agency (ANR)
through the Project ANR-20-CE27-0004.</p>
    </sec>
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