The article considers decision-making schemes and models for threat elimination during emergencies in hierarchical systems based on information and system technologies. An analysis of publications, both classical and modern, was carried out. The relevance of a purposeful automated control systems study was shown, and the features of design using cognitive decision-making methods that would secure the possibility of avoiding structural errors were indicated. A method for assessing risks due to the cognitive component, i.e., operator errors, taking into account his intellectual characteristics, was developed, and intellectual activity cognitive coefficients tables were constructed. The application of the theory of systems and information technologies to the study of large-scale systems with a hierarchical structure of their organization, which is considered as a goal-oriented structure of interconnected subsystems for the implementation of target tasks, taking into account active attacks and threats and the cognitive component of the operator - manager, was considered.
neural system of the operational personnel and the skills of using them under adverse working
conditions [
The study aims to develop methods for ensuring effective management of production infrastructure with a hierarchical organization in the face of a complex of active threats and internal and external conflicts, which can lead to management failure, accidents, and the collapse of the structure of a complex system.
In accordance with this purpose, let’s consider the works of researchers published in monographs and articles from 2011-2023.
Monograph [
The monograph [3] substantiates the methods of systematics of decision-making in complex systems with robust properties to counteract strong disturbances to the system control processes.
Books [
Based on system analysis, the monograph [6] developed the concept of formation of information and intellectual operations for implementing security management strategies in the ACS.
Books [10-13] analyze models of psychological factors influencing the process of managing complex systems and evaluate multiplicative criteria.
Monographs [4, 5] consider the strategic security problems of complex systems and methods of designing an information security system under the influence of active attacks on data flows and the management process.
The monograph [9] considers the complex problem of creating automated information systems to ensure effective and sustainable management of complex hierarchical man-made complexes.
Works [14-17] consider neuro-fuzzy logic methods for building networks for processing data flows in the control process under interference conditions.
Works [18-22] consider methods of forming and making targeted decisions in the face of information attacks and logical and cognitive failures using fuzzy logic to develop algorithms for assessing the situation in complex systems.
Monograph [23] discusses methods for creating algorithms and operating automata based on the terminal logic of forming control actions.
Work [24] substantiates the use of artificial intelligence methods for data and multimedia processing, their use in decision-making procedures for control in complex systems. Article [25] considers the problematic tasks of forming management decisions using information and intelligent technologies..
The intensive development of man-made social infrastructure (industry, energy, transport, aviation, municipal systems of cities, villages, megacities, mining, oil and gas, construction) consumes large amounts of energy and material resources. To operate, they require labor resources (workers, technicians, engineers, scientists, high-level experts, advisors with strategic importance and experience in solving crisis problems).
Research methods that were used to solve the problem of effective targeted management of the production hierarchical infrastructure in the face of threats, conflicts, information, and cognitive attacks:
Methods of system analysis of the structure and dynamics of production infrastructure components with a given goal orientation; their intellectual interpretation; 2. Information technologies for processing situational data on the state of active objects and situations; and-effect diagrams. 3. Logical and cognitive models for assessing the ability of personnel to make decisions in crisis
Methods for assessing the risks of emergencies at the terminal control cycles using causeInfrastructural man-made complexes are hybrid systems with a hierarchy of production and management structures (from man-made to strategic and global).
The development of information technologies for crisis management has its own basis.
New approaches to personnel training are based on the concept of modern scientific methods (systems analysis, crisis management, technical systems management, databases and knowledge, expert systems and computer engineering, communication and telecommunications networks (space, satellite navigation systems).
However, the foundation of the energy, metallurgy, construction, social sector, and other industries requires high-level engineering and fundamental knowledge of mathematics, physics, and thermodynamics of energy-active processes, as well as electronics and nuclear physics and automatic control systems.
Accordingly, man-made infrastructure requires comprehensive knowledge, not just digital and information technologies, to ensure its functioning and project implementation.
An important task of applying the theory of systems and information technology is to study
largescale systems with a hierarchical structure of their organization, which can be considered as a family
of appropriately connected subsystems for the implementation of target tasks. From this perspective,
systems theory studies the structure as an integrity that ensures the achievement of the goal [
The use of system analysis, algebra of categories to represent organizational and functional components of man-made infrastructure, data processing methods of information technology to assess the state of energy-active objects, intellectual interpretation of the dynamic situation content in the state space and the target space provides an opportunity to control the functioning of technological units and assess the level of maximum loads, the risks of entering an emergency state.
The use of statistics, situational logic-cognitive analysis and cause-effect diagrams is the basis for building scenarios for the development of events in the terminal control cycles and assessing the risk of an emergency. Preventing an emergency is the main task for operational personnel with the appropriate level of knowledge, professional training, and cognitive intelligence to make targeted Let's consider the elements of system structuring in accordance with the goal of the basic task. Definition 1. Example text of a theorem. A generalized system ⊂ × with objects , , ∈ =⊗
, , ∈ , on component sets = ( 1 ⋯ ) and = decisions. =⊗
, { 1, ⋯ in } forms a structure with the set { }, if it can form a connection. ∈ , { } =⊗ : ∈ - input. The output object of the system =⊗ : ∈ There are many types of connections for each system ⊂ × :( = × ) → ⊂ × × × =1 which differ by the sets ,
Accordingly, the class of connected systems can be defined in the form of a cascade connection, which reflects the class of the aggregated technological structure:
1 ⊂ ( 1 × 1) × 1, 3 ⊂ ( 1 × 2 × ) × ( 1 × 2), 1 = 2 = ,
2 ⊂ ( 2 × 2) × 2, then the parallel structure represented through the composition of substructures with a given class of functional purpose: ( 1, 1, ), ( 1, 1) ∈ 3 ⇔ ( 1, ), 1 ∈ 1& ( 2, ), 2 ∈ 2
In accordance with the concept of infrastructure targeting, a decomposition scheme of the
hierarchy of units has been developed (Fig. 1).
According to Fig. 1, let’s define the levels of structuring of the man-made system:
1. Hierarchical integrated system that implements targeted strategic infrastructure
management [
Accordingly, the structure in Fig. 1 is one of the ways to represent the organization of production in the man-made infrastructure complex. 3.1. Assessment of the suitability of operational personnel for managing a targeted energy-active system
levelаварій
Х
Ranking of technological infrastructure personnel by functional requirements: ( 1) - personnel for the maintenance of units and blocks; ( 2) - personnel for repair and installation works; ( 3) - personnel of laboratories of automation and control and measurement systems; ( 4) - personnel (engineers, technicians) for shift maintenance of complexes of units and power units; 5 - personnel for control and maintenance of automatic control systems (ACS-TP); ( 6) - personnel of shift operational control of a closed-cycle technological system; ( 7) - operational and administrative personnel and document management and computer network services; ( 8) - personnel for maintenance of information and automated systems; ( 9) - personnel of the chief technologist service; ( 10) - financial and administrative management and planning personnel; 11 - Chief Engineer's Service (departments, information security service, fire and technological safety service); ( 12) - expert advisory service and DSS (decision support system) for senior management; ( 13) - senior managers and members of the Management Board and directors, shareholders' representatives; ( 14) - the chairman of the board and the supervisory board of the industrial complex; ( 20) - owners (individual, team); ( ) - external teams of strategic level advisors and national and international experts (Certified by type of activity).
The requirements for technical, administrative and managerial personnel are formed in accordance with the rank.
In accordance with the rank, test requirements for a person's cognitive, knowledge, and psychological characteristics are formed in tables and a scheme of risk situations.
Accordingly, lets provide information, logic, system and cognitive aptitude of personnel (Table 1). 1. 2. 3.
Ability to take active management actions Targeted to the recognition
situation Reaction and active factors Encouraging goal-oriented
activities Building sets of target
alternatives
Choosing strategies Subconscious choice of goal
orientation
Targeted selection Conscious risk assessment
ZAd CSitПS Rek (AF)
CDi
C(Di)
ПSv(Ci) V (Ci) 0.5-1 0.8-1 0.6-1 0.7-1 0.9-1 0.8-1 0.7-1 0.8-1
Self-confidence in the ability to solve the problem
KV sp Sg KV (Аі ) ZpKV (Аj ) SKV (Аі ) SZ КV (Аі ) Rd (Аі ) KZP (Аі ) Кcogn (Аі ) Кdu (А ) Кd (Drisk ) 0.6-1 0.7-1 0.7-1 0.5-1 0.8-1.0 0.7-1.0 0.6-1.0 0,8-1,0 0,8-1,0 0,2-1,0 0,2-1,0 0,75-1,0 0,8-1,0 0,85-1,0 0,9-1,0
Systemic background
knowledge Engineering and technical
examples Operational management
Strategic level
K
0,0-100 0,2-100 50-100 Ranking table of the level of scientific and technical knowledge based on the results of specialized industry tests, which are formed on the basis of the study α α r > 0.5 α
On the basis of the developed risk assessments ( ) and the introduced cognitive coefficients ( ) - trust and coefficients of knowledge requirements ( ), the methods of assessing professional suitability are substantiated. On the basis of (Table 1), a diagram for assessing the target suitability of personnel for managerial activities in the hierarchical structure of a man-made system has been developed as a basis for maintaining the level of cybersecurity under the influence of information attacks and threats, which can lead to disorientation in the situation and its incorrect assessment in the formation and decision-making.
The diagram (Fig. 3) of goal suitability assessment and preliminary studies and schemes (Figs. 1-3) are the basis for the construction of professionally oriented tests. 4.1. Prospects for research on the problems of managerial stress resistance and professional engineering and technical activity The current stage of society development, industrial infrastructure, and social and communal conglomerates is characterized by a set of regional and global problems. The problems that have developed in the infrastructure of society, global ecosystems, energy, transport and the entire economic and industrial complex are becoming increasingly complex and cannot be solved by simple, deregulatory solutions.
The growing process of informatization of technologies and society (start-up technologies, the Internet, artificial intelligence, process automation, intelligent technologies, global data and knowledge bases) cannot ensure the mass welfare of the population, as this requires a certain level of education, not self-deception of opportunities. The low level of managerial culture at all levels of the hierarchy and the educational base leads to strategic mistakes of global and local accidents of the systemic type (e.g., Chornobyl, Yokohama, dam breaks, environmental disasters, Saano-Shushenska TPP), which are characterized by resource, financial and large losses of population.
The war leads to the collapse of infrastructure and large population losses, the ruin of social, communal and strategic structures. These problems can be solved only through the constructive use of material and energy resources, labor, and scientific and engineering potential to upgrade infrastructure. This problem can be solved with effective management at different levels of the hierarchy of state infrastructure organizations, raising the level of professionalism on the basis of modernized educational programs of training and vocational education, selection of managerial personnel on the basis of new concepts of testing and aptitude assessment, taking into account cognitive, psychological and intellectual characteristics to assess the ability to each type of professional activity.
Depending on the system structure and the situation, there are changes in the state of the hierarchical system in the terminal space [Tm×TR] in relation to the dynamics of the pace of events, which leads to the thickening of situations on the real-time axis and to the occurrence of an emergency in case of untimely adoption of protection measures. Therefore, for the rapid elimination of emergencies, it is necessary to develop: structural diagrams of technological processes; models, schemes for data selection and processing; methods of classifying situations and making decisions; schemes for the development of possible event scenarios; schemes of personnel behavior and instructions for emergency response based on information and system technologies.
On the basis of the proposed approach, using the logic of actions and the theory of situational management, models of the structure of systems for active control of technological processes under conditions of dynamic disturbances on objects both of the systemic, structural, and cognitiveinformational types were developed. The concept of goal orientation and coordination of logical and cognitive models of forming control decisions of a system with a hierarchical structure under the influence of threats and information attacks as a basis for the synthesis of robust decision-making strategies in crisis emergency situations were substantiated.
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