=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-3925/short11
|storemode=property
|title=Strategic adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to the challenges of post-war air traffic organization (short paper)
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3925/short11.pdf
|volume=Vol-3925
|authors=Nazarii Liskovych,Dmytro Shevchuk,Kostiantyn Cherednichenko,Ivan Steniakin,Mykhailo Levchenko,Maksym Gryshchenko
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/cmigin/LiskovychSCSLG24
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==Strategic adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to the challenges of post-war air traffic organization (short paper)==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-3925/short11.pdf
Strategic adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to the
challenges of post-war air traffic organization
Nazarii Liskovych1,∗,†, Dmytro Shevchuk1,†, Kostiantyn Cherednichenko1,†, Ivan Steniakin1,†,
Mykhailo Levchenko1,† and Maksym Gryshchenko1,†
1
National Aviation University, Liubomyra Huzara Ave. 1, Kyiv, 03058, Ukraine
Abstract
The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war has profoundly disrupted the global air transportation system,
presenting unprecedented challenges for Ukraine's civil aviation sector. This study investigates how
Ukrainian airlines strategically adapt to the challenges of post-war air traffic management (ATM), focusing
on restoring safe and efficient operations. It examines the effects of damaged infrastructure, restricted
airspace, and evolving international safety standards on airline performance. Additionally, the research
delves into integrating advanced ATM technologies and collaboration with global aviation authorities to
bolster operational resilience. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of developing robust
contingency plans to address potential future conflicts and crises. It emphasizes the need for investment in
modernizing airport facilities and enhancing training programs for personnel to ensure compliance with
international regulations. The research also explores the role of public-private partnerships in facilitating
the recovery process and fostering innovation within the aviation sector. The findings offer strategic
recommendations for Ukrainian airlines to enhance their competitive positions and support the sustainable
recovery of the national aviation industry, ultimately contributing to the broader economic stability of the
region.
Keywords
air carrier, airlines, aviation, post-war challenges, strategy, strategic adaptation 1
1. Introduction
War is a challenge and a test of strength for any society, economy or industry. Entire sectors of
society, business, government and citizens are put to the test in wartime. However, it is not only
wartime but also the post-war period that is a new test of resilience, requiring new adaptations.
Aviation is an important dimension of the economic and non-economic functioning of society and
the state. As Suvorova I.M. and Ignatusha M.S. note, aviation is not just a means of transport, but an
instrument of the modern world. Its active growth around the world makes people's lives more
comfortable, boosts the economy and creates new opportunities for cooperation. At the same time,
the researchers note that the development of the aviation industry in the post-conflict period is an
investment in the future, which promises to be dynamic and fast [1].
The issue of adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to post-war challenges is of general economic
importance and therefore requires special attention and study.
CH&CMiGIN’24: Third International Conference on Cyber Hygiene & Conflict Management in Global Information Networks,
January 24–27, 2024, Kyiv, Ukraine
∗
Corresponding author.
†
These authors contributed equally.
nazarii.liskovych@npp.nau.edu.ua (N. Liskovych); dmitroshevchuk@gmail.com (D. Shevchuk);
cherednichenko.kostya@gmail.com (K. Cherednichenko); ivansteniakin@gmail.com (I. Steniakin); studorum@gmail.com
(M. Levchenko); gryshchenko86@gmail.com (M. Gryshchenko)
0000-0002-0636-9648 (N. Liskovych); 0000-0001-9911-7214 (D. Shevchuk); 0000-0002-9388-3521 (K. Cherednichenko);
0000-0002-3511-6826 (I. Steniakin); 0009-0006-2073-2809 (M. Levchenko); 0009-0000-3103-3524 (M. Gryshchenko)
© 2025 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
CEUR
ceur-ws.org
Workshop ISSN 1613-0073
Proceedings
2. Materials and methods
In order to answer the question of the strategic adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to the post-war
challenges of air traffic management, it is necessary to determine what should be understood by
strategic adaptation in this area. To this end, it is worth examining the provisions of current
legislation, reference publications and the views of scholars.
First of all, it is necessary to analyse legislative acts, since the issue of air traffic management is
regulated by a number of regulatory acts, the most important of which is the Order of the State
Aviation Service of Ukraine "On Approval of the Aviation Rules of Ukraine "Air Traffic Management"
dated 09.12.2021 No. 1920 [2].
Current national legislation does not provide a definition of 'strategic adaptation'. At the same
time, the concept of "adaptation" is defined in the context of law enforcement. According to
paragraph 1.2. of Section I of the Order of the Security Service of Ukraine of 1 March 2012 No. 79
"On Approval of the Instruction on the Procedure of Organising and Conducting Professional and
Psychological Selection of Candidates for Training in Higher Military Educational Institutions of the
Security Service of Ukraine", adaptation is the adjustment of the body and psyche of a person to the
requirements and peculiarities of training and military service as a cadet [3]. Thus, in the context of
this normative act, "adaptation" is understood as a process of adjustment.
According to the 11-volume Dictionary of the Ukrainian Language, the term "strategic" means to
contain general, basic guidelines that are important for the implementation of a particular activity
[4]. The same source defines "adaptation" as the adjustment of organisms or sensory organs to the
conditions of existence, to the environment [5]. Thus, it can be concluded that the concept of
'strategic' implies the existence of basic principles or guidelines for activities, while 'adaptation'
reflects the process of adapting to changing conditions.
According to Y.O. Kapitanets, the forms of strategy should correspond to the characteristics of
the exogenous environment and the potential of the enterprise. The means of achieving such
conformity is strategic adaptation - a process characterised by rapid response and flexible adjustment
of the enterprise's endogenous capabilities (resources) to future changes in the exogenous
environment of its functioning [6]. From this it can be concluded that strategic adaptation is a form
of development that involves rapid response and adaptation of internal resources to changes in the
external environment.
According to the provisions of Clause 1 of Section I of the Aviation Rules of Ukraine "Air Traffic
Management", these Aviation Rules establish requirements for air traffic services through air traffic
management and the application of certain operational procedures in the airspace of Ukraine and at
civil aerodromes of Ukraine [2]. Air traffic management is a set of rules that establishes requirements
for air traffic services through its organisation and application of operational procedures in the
airspace of Ukraine and at civil aerodromes. In general, it is a system of rules aimed at regulating air
traffic services.
It should be noted that Ukrainian legislation does not contain a definition of the term "air carrier",
but there are regulations in its history that reveal the meaning of the term "air carrier". According to
paragraph 4 of the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine "On Approval of Temporary
Control Regulations for Ensuring Civil Aviation Safety" dated 02.08.1995 No. 592 (which has ceased
to be in force), an air carrier was defined as any air transport company providing or operating air
services [7]. At the same time, the Aviation Code of Ukraine dated 19.05.2011 No. 3393-VI and the
Aviation Rules of Ukraine "Air Traffic Management" use the term "airline".
Taking into account the provisions of the legislation, scientific research and reference sources, it
can be assumed that the strategic adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to the post-war challenges is to
respond quickly and flexibly to the updated requirements for the organisation and provision of air
traffic services.
As noted by Zaitseva O.I., Zhosan G.V. and Betina V.O., strategic adaptation is the newest tool of
business development [8]. In view of the war against Ukraine, it is advisable to consider strategic
adaptation in this context, since martial law directly affects the activities of Ukrainian airlines and
will have long-term consequences even after the end of hostilities. One of the modern definitions
considers strategic adaptation as the process of finding and implementing solutions to systemic
problems that affect the entire course of war [9]. This definition can also be applied to the adaptation
of Ukrainian airlines to post-war realities, as strategic adaptation will involve the development and
implementation of solutions to restore the aviation industry and ensure the efficient functioning of
air transport.
Ukrainian airlines face a number of challenges, and preparations to meet them should begin now,
before the end of hostilities. The military aggression against Ukraine has caused significant
destruction and economic loss to the aviation industry: aircraft and airports have been destroyed and
damaged, passenger and cargo traffic has decreased, resulting in a significant loss of revenue for
airlines.
With the outbreak of hostilities, the airspace over Ukraine was closed and air traffic was
suspended. At the same time, immediately after the start of the full-scale invasion, Russian troops
actively fired missiles at all major airfields in Ukraine in an attempt to deprive the Ukrainian state
of its ability to provide air defence. At the same time, attacks on Ukrainian airfields continue to this
day. In the first year of the war, 19 out of 35 airfields were damaged, including 12 civilian and 7 dual-
use airfields, not including military airfields. Some facilities were repeatedly bombed [10].
An important factor affecting the recovery of the industry is the security situation, the state of
the infrastructure and the availability of qualified specialists. As noted by Suvorova I.M. and
Ignatusha M.S., a full resumption of air transport in Ukraine is impossible as long as hostilities
continue. In addition, the lack of experienced personnel, especially pilots and technicians, may
significantly complicate this process. At present, pilots are losing their licences and flight hours, and
ground and airport personnel are losing their certifications and permits, with the risk that their
return to professional duties will be delayed [1].
Although most Ukrainian airlines are currently unable to operate, some operators continue to
operate in international airspace. In particular, in 2023 the charter airline SkyUp offered its Boeing
737 aircraft on so-called wet lease to foreign carriers, provided that they did not operate flights to
the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. Under this model, the company cooperates with
Tailwind Airlines (Republic of Turkey), Corendon Dutch Airlines (Kingdom of the Netherlands),
HiSky (Republic of Moldova) and FlyEgypt (Arab Republic of Egypt) [11, 12].
Also in 2023, the WindRose airline resumed operations, operating flights from Tivat (Republic of
Montenegro) to various European cities under the Air Montenegro brand [12]. As Suvorova I.M. and
Ignatusha M.S. note, the operation of Ukrainian airlines outside the country is an effective tool for
the maintenance of the aviation fleet and the preservation of personnel qualifications in closed skies.
The researchers add that, with the right approach, the development of the aviation industry can
become one of the key factors in Ukraine's post-war economic recovery.
Experts suggest a number of measures to help the aviation industry in general, and Ukrainian
airlines in particular, adapt to the challenges of post-war air traffic management. These include: a)
government support; b) restoration of infrastructure; c) stimulation of demand; d) development of
human resources; e) introduction of innovative technologies; f) application of an ecosystem
approach, etc. Addressing these issues will contribute to the development of a competitive, safe and
innovative aviation industry, which in turn will become a driver of Ukraine's economic growth.
As noted by Kovalenko N.O. and Gornostaiev O.V., the development of civil aviation is a
particularly relevant issue in the context of the country's post-war economic recovery. The
reconstruction of the aviation infrastructure and the growth of air traffic play a key role in reviving
economic activity, integrating Ukraine into global markets, ensuring the mobility of the population
and stimulating strategic sectors of the economy. At the same time, the post-war period presents a
number of challenges related not only to the reconstruction of the destroyed infrastructure, but also
to the adaptation of the aviation industry to the changed economic, political and environmental
conditions [13, 14].
In order to develop strategic approaches to the post-war adaptation of airline companies, it is
necessary to outline the basic factors that determine the conditions for the functioning of the airline
sector during the war and the transitional period of recovery.
The closure of Ukraine's airspace on 24 February 2022 as a result of a full-scale invasion had
critical consequences for the aviation sector, which must be taken into account when developing the
concept of strategic adaptation of industry participants:
• Losses to aviation companies: According to various sources, the daily losses to these
transport companies are estimated at several million US dollars, due to the suspension of
regular flights and a reduction in traffic;
• Changes in the tourism sector: According to various opinions and studies, Ukraine could lose
several billion US dollars annually in international tourism revenues due to the closure of
airports and the inability to travel. This, in turn, has had a negative impact on the operations
of hotels, restaurants, transport companies and other tourism-related businesses;
• Losses in business travel: according to various studies, business travel spending fell by 60-
80%, depending on the sector, resulting in losses of hundreds of millions of US dollars
annually;
• Reduced investment activity: the lack of direct flights has made it difficult to attract foreign
investment, as potential investors are unable to visit Ukraine to implement projects. Total
losses are estimated to be in the billions of US dollars;
• Macroeconomic downturn: according to various estimates, the reduction in transport activity
due to the closure of airspace will lead to total economic losses of USD 30-50 billion in 2022
alone, including an impact on the country's GDP;
• Reduced competitiveness of aviation companies and the economy as a whole;
• Environmental problems: a significant deterioration in the state of the environment will
directly require updated approaches to the business activities of aviation companies.
According to various studies, the environmental damage caused by military operations is
estimated at around USD 71 billion. Such losses affect the overall economic condition of the
state, of which the transport sector is one of the most important [15, 16].
In light of the above, it is worth outlining a number of possible steps and measures for the
strategic adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to the post-war challenges of air traffic management. Let
us look at them in more detail [17].
The new post-war environment will require airlines to transform, expand or re-profile, driven by
the opening of airspace and access to global and regional transport markets, which have changed
during the war in Ukraine and the absence of most Ukrainian airlines in the transport sector. At the
same time, companies will need to attract specialists by offering favourable conditions, as well as
retraining and refresher courses. Emphasis should be placed on training programmes for
professionals who, due to mobilisation, need additional training to return to the aviation industry.
Simulator training and certification programmes should be re-established. It is also necessary to
develop and implement a set of measures to train a new generation of pilots, technicians, engineers
and a wide range of industry professionals. With regard to the return of personnel with combat
experience or directly affected by hostilities, programmes for the psychological support, adaptation
and recovery of such professionals should be implemented with the utmost care [18, 19].
Another factor that specialists will have to deal with in the post-war period is the introduction of
new standards and new conditions for air transport, caused by the European integration processes
that continue despite the hostilities. It is not only a question of training specialists in new rules, but
also of new approaches to training itself, based on the principles common to the European Union
[20, 21]. A separate aspect of the personnel issue in the context of the strategic adaptation of aviation
companies to the post-war challenges of air traffic management is the possible need to attract foreign
specialists to the aviation sector due to the personnel shortage caused by the war. In this case, there
will be a problem of adaptation of foreign specialists to the Ukrainian air transport system, as well
as adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to working with specialists who may have a different professional
culture and approach to work tasks.
It should also be noted that the restoration of aviation infrastructure will require some form of
participation by Ukrainian airlines in meeting this challenge, as the construction or repair of airports,
terminals, runways and other infrastructure elements cannot be undertaken by the state and
international institutions alone [22, 23]. The damage and scale of destruction are unprecedented in
the history of Europe and Ukraine since the end of the Second World War. The involvement of
private investors appears to be a prerequisite for the restoration of aviation infrastructure, and
Ukrainian carriers should contribute to this process according to their capabilities. In addition, their
participation in the restoration of this sector will allow them to influence the formation of the
infrastructure concept in the post-war economy. Even in the absence of significant financial
investment by the airlines, their consultative participation can help to ensure that modern
technological requirements, energy efficiency, environmental friendliness and inclusiveness are
taken into account, which will ensure competitiveness at the regional and global air transport level.
The fundamental adaptation of airline companies to the post-war transport environment will
require significant investment in innovation and technological development. The greatest
competitiveness can be achieved when the economy is able to generate innovation itself, rather than
relying on borrowing. Meeting this challenge will be an important step in ensuring not only the
ability to adapt to new conditions, but also the ability to shape those conditions.
Airlines will need to actively cooperate internationally, particularly in seeking support and
integration into the global aviation market. This means participating in international and
intergovernmental projects as well as developing their own initiatives that will not only help restore
pre-war routes but also open up new destinations.
It is also worth considering the possibility of actively involving airlines in the recovery of the
tourism sector, trade and business travel as key factors in the development of the industry. In this
context, it is important not only to launch an awareness-raising campaign, but also to establish
organisational and technological cooperation with representatives of the tourism industry and a
wide range of entrepreneurs.
The post-war period has been characterised by the creation of conditions for the introduction of
innovative technologies in the aviation sector, including the use of new types of fuel, the
development of unmanned aerial vehicles and the integration of artificial intelligence and digital
technologies into transport management processes. At the same time, innovation will be inextricably
linked to environmental safety, which will require the industry to adapt to European and global
standards.
The strategic adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to the post-war challenges of air traffic
management should include active participation in the development of both international and
domestic air transport. It is important to develop proposals for government authorities on benefits,
subsidies, special regimes for regulating transport, improving conditions for the emergence of new
airlines, public-private partnerships and generally stimulating the development of the industry. At
the same time, the need for regional recovery should encourage airlines to expand their presence or
enter the regional air transport market, which will contribute both to economic activity in the regions
and to the development of the airlines themselves.
Special attention should be paid to the study of the impact of artificial intelligence on the global
aviation industry. Analysing the potential use of AI in aviation at the stage of developing strategic
adaptation will allow Ukrainian airlines to implement technological innovations more effectively
and improve their competitiveness.
Another important aspect of adaptation is the need to meet the requirements of European Union
aviation legislation and industry standards. In view of Ukraine's active European integration and the
fulfilment of key tasks for EU membership, airlines must take into account these regulatory
requirements and adapt their operations to European standards.
It is also necessary to take into account the complexity of the post-war international markets,
where destinations linked to the markets of countries that committed aggression against Ukraine
(Russian and Belarusian markets) and supported this aggression (Iranian market) may lose
commercial attractiveness and suffer reputational damage. The possibility of sabotage or terrorist
acts by representatives of the special services of these countries or radical groups cannot be ruled
out. This factor should be taken into account when taking measures to strategically adapt Ukrainian
airlines to the post-war challenges of air traffic management.
The problems of climate change caused by global warming require radical changes in the entire
world economy and in the aviation industry. In this context, the strategic adaptation of Ukrainian
airlines should be based on global approaches to the new realities caused by anthropogenic
environmental changes. Only real steps in this direction by Ukrainian airlines will allow them to
adapt to global changes in the air transport market. The ability to reduce the negative environmental
impact of their operations will increase their attractiveness in the national and global air transport
sector.
Strategic adaptation should also be based on an understanding of the critical importance of the
national environment. The scale and depth of the damage caused by the war to the Ukrainian
environment forces us to resort to a nationwide economic transformation, in which the aviation
sector plays a particularly important role. The national airlines can and should not only adapt to the
increased environmental restrictions, but also propose them for implementation at the national level
and participate in the formation of the state's environmental policy.
3. Conclusions
The strategic adaptation of Ukrainian carriers to the post-war challenges of air traffic management
should take into account the changes in legislation that will become relevant after the opening of the
airspace and the lifting of martial law. It is expected that a significant number of suspended
regulations will need to be reinstated or revised. In addition, new legislation will be enacted to govern
post-war relations.
It should also be borne in mind that the organisation of air transport in the post-war period will
not be possible at the pre-war level, in particular because the official announcement of the end of the
war, the signing of a ceasefire and the lifting of martial law will not eliminate the problems of post-
war demining and the possibility of subversive activities by independent sabotage groups. Such
threats and problems will significantly change the rules of air transport and aviation law, which
should be taken into account by Ukrainian airlines when developing the concept and implementing
measures for strategic adaptation to the post-war challenges of air traffic management.
Therefore, it can be assumed that the strategic adaptation of Ukrainian airlines to the post-war
challenges of air traffic management should include prompt response and flexible adaptation to new
air traffic management requirements. It will involve addressing a number of complex tasks, including
restoring and modernising air transport infrastructure, restructuring the industry and strengthening
human resources, integrating into the European aviation system, investing in innovation,
technological development and digitalisation, adapting to global climate challenges and national
environmental issues, attracting international support and developing cooperation, ensuring
compliance with new post-war air traffic regulations, taking into account new security threats, and
addressing new challenges of the air transport industry. Thus, the strategic adaptation of Ukrainian
airlines is a crucial step towards the restoration and sustainable development of the aviation industry
in Ukraine, ensuring its competitiveness in the international market and improving the level of
aviation safety.
Declaration on Generative AI
The author(s) have not employed any Generative AI tools.
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