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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Geophysical Journal International</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Modelling and forecasting of soil deformations in karst- hazardous areas</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Artem Bykov</string-name>
          <email>bykov_a_a@list.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Umut Turusbekova</string-name>
          <email>umut.t@mail.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Nurkamilya Daurenbayeva</string-name>
          <email>n.daurenbayeva@iitu.edu.kz</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Almas Nurlanuly</string-name>
          <email>a.nurlanuly@agakaz.kz</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Madina Ipalakova</string-name>
          <email>m.ipalakova@iitu.edu.kz</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Academy of Civil Aviation</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Akhmetov St., 44, Almaty, A35X2Y6</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="KZ">Kazakhstan</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>International Information Technology University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>34/1 Manas St., Almaty, 050000</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="KZ">Kazakhstan</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>2 Satpayev St., 010008, Astana</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="KZ">Kazakhstan</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2020</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>222</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <fpage>0000</fpage>
      <lpage>0002</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>In the context of constructing and operating buildings and engineering structures in karst-prone areas, detailed monitoring and analysis of the processes affecting soil base stability are crucial. In such regions, the formation of karst cavities and sinkholes is often observed, leading to significant deformations and the potential destruction of foundations. This article presents a comprehensive study of the "soil base foundation - structure" system to identify and predict the initial stages of soil base failure. The article details the results of a laboratory experiment that simulates soil deformation and failure under load. Machine learning methods for processing time series of electrical signals recorded during the experiment are also presented. These methods enabled the detection of areas indicating soil integrity violations, opening new prospects for predicting and preventing man-made accidents. The proposed approach to monitoring data analysis enhances the prediction and prevention of man-made accidents, thereby increasing the reliability of engineering structures.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;soil foundation</kwd>
        <kwd>geoelectric methods</kwd>
        <kwd>deformation monitoring</kwd>
        <kwd>stress-strain modelling 1</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        For the construction of facilities in areas with existing urban and industrial development, it is
necessary to carry out geotechnical forecasting and monitoring. When designing foundations for
new or reconstructed structures in built-up areas, it is crucial to assess the impact of construction on
the stress-strain state of the surrounding soil mass, including the foundations of adjacent buildings.
In karst-prone areas, the construction and operation of buildings may trigger the activation of
exogenous geodynamic processes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], leading to the formation of karst cavities and sinkholes, which
can cause soil deformation and the failure of foundations [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        A complex of interconnected natural, natural-technogenic, and technogenic objects forms a single
geotechnical system, the "soil-foundation-building," whose state is determined by a wide range of
natural and technogenic factors [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref4">3, 4</xref>
        ]. It is also essential to accurately and promptly predict the
activation and development of deformation processes.
      </p>
      <p>
        Monitoring the geological environment in the development area using direct geophysical
methods is technically and economically impractical [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. In this case, to obtain information about the
main elements of the geological environment, as well as its physical and mechanical properties, it is
necessary to use shallow engineering geophysical monitoring methods [6, 7]. The objects of
geotechnical monitoring in this context are: foundations, building structures, retaining structures of
excavations, the soil mass surrounding the underground parts of structures, and soil foundations of
roads, including those for railway transport [8].
      </p>
      <p>
        During their operation, buildings are exposed to both external and internal influences—such as
radiation, temperature, precipitation, chemical processes, biological factors, frost heaving, and the
hydrogeological influence of soils—which significantly impact the durability of buildings and
structures [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2, 8</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        One of the main reasons for the reduction and loss of bearing capacity in the structures of
technological facilities is the adverse natural and man-made impacts on the
"soil-foundationbuilding" system [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2, 8</xref>
        ]. These impacts cause deformations in the soil base, leading to damage to the
foundation and the superstructure. To assess the technical condition of the foundation, it is necessary
to measure the mechanical and physical properties of the soil, as well as the parameters of the applied
loads, and to calculate the stress-strain state (SSS). Timely detection of deformation processes and
control over the impact of additional loads on the foundation allow for tracking changes in the
technical condition of structures, which is crucial for preventing emergencies that can cause serious
damage, including the complete loss of the foundation's bearing capacity and the inability to continue
its operation [9].
      </p>
      <p>The most promising method for organizing automated control of geodynamic objects is the use of
geoelectric probing techniques, which ensure effective monitoring of geological objects, assessment
of their condition, and forecasting of their development, owing to their advanced technology [6, 7, 9].
The combined use of geoelectric and seismic methods, i.e., the application of the seismoelectric
method for monitoring the geological environment, will enhance the efficiency of geological research
by reducing the ambiguity in the interpretation of geophysical data [9, 10, 11].</p>
      <p>In general, the geological environment under study can be represented as a dynamic system [11,
12] (Fig. 1). The output signal received from the geodynamic monitoring system is a cumulative
response to atmospheric influences, operational loads, and the temperature and hydrological regime
of the geological environment. Any exogenous or endogenous impact results in changes to the
parameters of the geological environment.</p>
      <p>The aim of this work is to substantiate and explore an integrated approach to solving the
challenges of geotechnical monitoring within the “soil base – foundation – structure” system. This
approach will enable the identification of the initial stages of foundation failure by combining
geoelectric and seismic methods for monitoring the geological environment.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Application of seismoelectric method of monitoring the soilfoundation-building system</title>
      <p>The Mohr-Coulomb elastic-plastic model is used to assess the stress-strain state of soils at the base of
structures [13]. This model combines Hooke's law with the Coulomb failure criterion, accounting for
elastic behavior under low loads and plastic behavior at failure. A notable feature of this model is its
simplification in determining soil shear resistance near the limit state. In practice, Young's modulus
and Poisson's ratio are typically treated as constants [9, 13].</p>
      <p>The main physical and mechanical characteristics of soil for applying this model in the
geotechnical monitoring of structures are the elastic modulus (E), the internal friction angle (φ), and
the cohesion coefficient (c). Shear deformations in the soil lead to a redistribution of stresses within
the foundation elements of the structure. The shear resistance of soils is strongly influenced by their
density, moisture content, mineral composition, and stress state [14, 15]. It is also well-known that
these characteristics significantly affect the geoelectric properties of soil, which are measured using
geoelectric methods.</p>
      <p>When a seismoacoustic signal xs(t) is applied to the studied medium, its parameters change [9]. In
this case, it is described by the impulse response hеs(t), the transfer function Неs(jω), and the received
signal yes(t) and its spectrum Yes(jω) are the result of seismoelectric conversion.</p>
      <p>Since the geological environment under study, in the presence and absence of elastic action, is
unambiguously described by the impulse response hе(t) or hеs(t), the presence of inhomogeneities,
karst cavities and deformation processes in it can be assessed by the mutual correlation of these
characteristics.
Bes( τ )= ∫ he( t )hes( t −τ )dt (1)</p>
      <p>−∞</p>
      <p>Since the most informative is not the time domain, but the frequency domain, it is possible to
move from the mutual correlation function to the mutual energy spectrum Wes(ω) of these
characteristics, which is related to the mutual correlation function by the Fourier transform
∞
W es( τ )= ∫ Bes( τ )е− j ωτ dτ (2)</p>
      <p>−∞</p>
      <p>Based on (1) in (2), we obtain a generalized expression for the mutual energy spectrum of impulse
characteristics of the geological environment in the presence and absence of elastic action
∞ ∞
W es( τ )= ∫ ∫ he( t )hes( t−τ )е− j ωτ dtd τ (3)</p>
      <p>−∞ −∞</p>
      <p>Soil strength indicators are the resistance to soil shear. For rocks with structural strength, the
relationship between tangential στ and normal σn stresses on the shear area is described by the control
of a straight line and is determined from Coulomb's law:</p>
      <p>σ τ =σ n⋅tg ϕ + c (4)</p>
      <p>Parameters such as the angle of internal friction φ and the coefficient of adhesion c are determined
experimentally for each case. When monitoring the bearing capacity of soil, these properties are
difficult to measure accurately, so laboratory tests on samples are used. Geoelectric methods allow
tracking dynamic changes in these parameters through the complex resistance of the geological
environment, which improves the accuracy of the assessment [11, 16]:
Н˙ ( jω , Δu )=</p>
      <p>E˙ ( jω )
I˙ ( jω )</p>
      <p>n
=Z˙ A ( jω )+ Z˙ B ( jω )+∑ Zi( jω , Δu )
i=1
(5)
(6)
where Z˙ A ( jω ), Z˙ B ( jω )- grounding resistance; E ( jω ), I ( jω )- parameters of the electric field
source; ω - frequency of the probing signal; Z˙ i( jω , Δu )- resistance of the i-th element of the studied
section of the geological environment under seismoacoustic influence Δu .</p>
      <p>The representation of the transfer function (5) of the studied section of the geological
environment in the form of a geoelectric model of series-connected complex resistances allows us to
use the model of an N-layer imperfect dielectric. The given model contains N elements with layer
thickness d and electrical parameters of the i-th element: permittivity εi, specific electrical resistance
ρi. In this case, the transfer function of the studied section of the geological environment can be
represented in the form of series-connected RC-circuits with parameters [9]:</p>
      <p>Ci=εi S ( jω , Δui )/ d ( Δui ), Ri= ρi d ( Δui )/ S ( jω , Δui ) ,
where S ( jω )- the effective area of an element of the environment, determined taking into
account the skin effect.</p>
      <p>The transfer function of a geoelectric section without taking into account the grounding
parameters can be expressed through the electrical parameters of a layered imperfect dielectric (6):
H˙ ( jω , Δu )= ∑N Ri − j ∑N Ri xi , (7)</p>
      <p>i=1 1+ xi2 i=1 1+ xi2
where xi=ωRi Ci=ωεi ρi .</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Methodology of experimental research on the model</title>
      <p>
        To evaluate the application of the seismoelectric effect in monitoring the condition of building
foundations, a laboratory model of the 'soil base - foundation - structure' system was developed [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4,
15</xref>
        ]. The study aimed to analyze the behavior of this geotechnical system under the influence of karst
processes and to assess the efficiency of the seismoelectric method. The laboratory setup simulates
natural processes such as changes in moisture content, suffusion, and karst collapses. The setup
includes: a model of a geodynamic object representing a reservoir with sand to simulate karst
collapses; sources of probing signals for generating and recording seismic and electrical pulses;
sensors for measuring current variations and seismic characteristics; and a data processing device for
complex signal analysis to identify the initial stages of destruction.
      </p>
      <p>Various scenarios involving the occurrence and development of karst processes accompanied by
soil collapse were simulated during the experiments. These scenarios were accompanied by
recording changes in the characteristics of seismic and electrical signals. Based on the obtained data,
key parameters indicating the onset of irreversible subgrade destruction were identified.</p>
      <p>
        The results of the experimental studies demonstrate that the combined processing of seismic and
electrical monitoring data allows for more accurate and timely detection of the initial phases of
destructive processes. However, for a deeper understanding and interpretation of the results,
additional data processing is required to identify specific patterns in the time series. This approach
will improve the methods for predicting the activation of deformation processes and for effectively
preventing man-made accidents within the 'soil base - foundation - structure' system [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4, 15, 16</xref>
        ]. To
fully reveal the patterns in the data, the use of advanced processing algorithms is necessary. These
algorithms include machine learning and time series analysis methods capable of detecting complex
hidden dependencies and patterns in large volumes of data [17].
      </p>
      <p>The use of intelligent algorithms can significantly improve the accuracy of forecasting
deformation processes in the «soil base - foundation – structure» natural-technical system by
processing large volumes of data and identifying subtle changes in signals that indicate the initial
stages of destruction. These methods are also effective for analyzing dynamic changes and
uncovering hidden patterns, which is critical for the timely detection and interpretation of
destructive processes. The integration of intelligent algorithms into monitoring systems optimizes
data analysis and enhances the efficiency of early warning systems for potential threats, contributing
to more accurate monitoring of soil conditions and the prevention of man-made accidents [14, 15, 16].</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Processing the results to detect the time of soil integrity violation</title>
      <p>Particularly important is the analysis of time series using modern data processing methods to detect
the moment when soil integrity is compromised. The efficiency of data processing algorithms, such
as the construction of envelope functions for time series and machine learning methods, is critical for
accurately identifying the initial phases of destruction and ensuring the reliability of monitoring
systems. A machine learning method, such as Isolation Forest, was employed to accurately detect
anomalies and critical moments in the time series.</p>
      <p>The data were loaded from a dataset containing soil electrical resistance measurements obtained
from six electrodes. During the filtering process, the first 3 seconds of the experiment and the last 50
seconds were excluded to analyze only the relevant time series.</p>
      <p>To visualize the data, graphs were constructed to show changes in electrical signals over time (Fig.
2). The first graph displays the signal time series, enabling a visual analysis of trends and anomalies in
the data. Additionally, an envelope function was constructed for the time series, which helps to
identify significant changes and allows for the visual detection of potential anomalies related to soil
integrity violations. The envelope was constructed using the Moving Average (MA) and Standard
Deviation (STD) methods. This approach allows for the visualization of upper and lower boundaries,
which aid in identifying anomalies and significant changes in the data.</p>
      <p>The moving average was calculated to smooth the time series to reduce the influence of random
fluctuations. The standard deviation at time t was calculated to assess the variability of the data:
SDT t=√</p>
      <p>1
ω−1
i=t− ω2
t+ ω</p>
      <p>2
∑ ( xi−SMAt )2
,
where SMAt — the value of the moving average at time t, ω — window size (in our case - 1000 values).</p>
      <p>Then, the upper (UE) and lower envelope (LE) functions were constructed based on the moving
average and standard deviation:</p>
      <p>UEt=SMAt +T⋅STDt</p>
      <p>LEt=SMAt−T⋅STDt ,
where T - the coefficient that determines how far the upper and lower envelopes are from the moving
average (in this case 2).</p>
      <p>This allows for the detection of significant changes in the data, as values outside the upper and
lower envelope of the function may indicate the desired anomalies. In some cases, polynomial
approximation is used to improve the accuracy of time series approximation, which can be optimized
by various methods [18]. These approaches improve the quality of detecting anomalies in data.</p>
      <p>The next step was to apply intelligent data processing using machine learning techniques. The
Isolation Forest algorithm, designed to detect anomalies in large datasets, was applied for time series
analysis. The Isolation Forest algorithm is based on the concept that anomalous data points (outliers)
are easier to isolate than normal points. Each data point is isolated by randomly selecting a feature
and a random split value. This process is repeated until every data point is isolated. The depth of the
isolation tree (the number of splits required to isolate a point) is used as a measure of the
'anomalousness' of a data point:
1. For a point x in a data set X, a random feature fj and a random partition value vj are selected:
xi,j&lt; vj or xi,j≥ vj.
2. The depth of the tree h(x) required to isolate a point x serves to assess its "anomaly".
3. The anomaly of a data point is estimated using the formula:
s ( x , n )=2
− E(ch((nx)))
,
where E(h(x)) — average tree depth, c(n) — constant depending on the number of data points n,
defined as:
2( n−1 )
c ( n )=2 H ( n−1 )−
n ,
where H(i) — is the harmonic number used to normalize the average depth of isolation trees, E(h(x)),
by the number of data points n.</p>
      <p>The smaller s(x,n), the more anomalous is the point x.</p>
      <p>In our case, the Isolation Forest algorithm helps to identify anomalies that may indicate soil
failure. By analyzing the isolation depth measured by this algorithm and the corresponding anomaly
values, it is possible to pinpoint sections of the time series with potentially dangerous changes. Thus,
the algorithm enables the identification of sections within the time series where significant changes
related to soil integrity violations occur, which can be visualized and used for further monitoring.
This algorithm also uncovers hidden patterns and anomalies that may not be apparent using
traditional analysis methods (Fig. 3).</p>
      <p>The results of intelligent data processing and time series analysis allowed us to identify critical
moments indicating possible violations of soil integrity. The identified anomalies and changes in the
data were interpreted to determine their significance and connection with soil failure. Optimization
of monitoring systems based on the obtained results will help to improve existing monitoring
methods and develop new approaches to forecasting and managing geotechnical risks.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5. Features of the implementation of the seismoelectric method in field geotechnical studies</title>
      <p>Currently, various methods are employed for monitoring karst processes, each with its own
advantages and limitations. Traditional geotechnical investigations involve drilling and soil sampling
to obtain direct information about subsurface conditions. Although these methods provide accurate
local data, they are invasive, labor-intensive, and cover limited areas, making them impractical for
continuous monitoring over large regions [19].</p>
      <p>Remote sensing techniques utilizing aerial or satellite imagery are used to detect surface
manifestations of karst phenomena such as sinkholes or subsidence. While useful for large-scale
monitoring, these methods are unable to detect subsurface anomalies before they become apparent at
the surface, limiting their effectiveness in early warning systems.</p>
      <p>Geophysical methods such as electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground-penetrating
radar (GPR) are often employed to monitor karst-prone areas. ERT enables the mapping of resistivity
variations to identify voids or moisture changes but is susceptible to external electromagnetic
interference. GPR provides high-resolution imaging for shallow subsurface objects; however, its
effectiveness decreases in conductive soils, and its penetration depth is limited [20].</p>
      <p>Seismic methods are most effective at great depths but have limited resolution at shallow depths.
They are also sensitive to external acoustic noise, which can compromise data quality [21].</p>
      <p>The proposed seismoelectric monitoring method combines seismic and electrical measurements,
enhancing sensitivity to changes in the mechanical and electrical properties of the soil. This
integrated approach offers several advantages: early detection of deformation processes,
noninvasive monitoring, and cost-effectiveness due to the use of intelligent data processing and machine
learning algorithms. However, when applying the proposed monitoring method under real-world
conditions, certain challenges may arise. Natural soils are significantly more heterogeneous and
complex than laboratory models, exhibiting variations in moisture content, density, stratification,
and the presence of various inclusions [22]. To address this issue, field calibration of the laboratory
models is necessary. This can be achieved by conducting pilot studies in selected karst areas.
Comparing these field data with laboratory results will allow for adjustments to the models to
account for real-world conditions.</p>
      <p>The scale of monitoring in practical applications is also considerably larger. Therefore, the
following parameters for the experimental setup and probing signals are proposed: the use of
1meter-long brass rods driven into the ground as emitting and receiving electrodes; probing electrical
signals with a frequency of 166 Hz, an amplitude of 500 V, and a harmonic waveform.</p>
      <p>Signal generation and processing are intended to be performed using the multifunctional
ADC/DAC module E-502-P-EU-D, a data acquisition system based on USB and Ethernet interfaces.
Recording changes in the electric field will be conducted with an ADC sampling frequency of
10,101 Hz. To monitor the seismic background during measurements, a network of several highly
sensitive digital short-period seismometers ZET 7156 is planned.</p>
      <p>When processing real data, issues such as the presence of various interferences from natural and
anthropogenic sources may occur. Data processing algorithms need to be adapted to handle large
volumes of information and to account for potential noise.</p>
      <p>Thus, despite the existing challenges, the seismoelectric monitoring method has significant
potential for application under real-world conditions. Its ability to provide early warnings makes it a
valuable tool for detecting and predicting karst-related ground deformations, complementing
existing approaches and enhancing the safety of engineering structures.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>6. Conclusion</title>
      <p>The study employed an integrated approach to modelling soil loads and failures, which provided a
deeper understanding of the dynamics of deformation processes within the soil-foundation-building
system. The modelling demonstrated that an increase in operational loads significantly intensifies
deformation processes, potentially foreshadowing future foundation failures. The analysis of the
geological environment's responses to seismic and electrical effects enabled a more precise
determination of the depth and location of potential failure zones within the foundation base, thereby
confirming the necessity of specialized monitoring of these zones during operation.</p>
      <p>In laboratory experiments, changes in electrical voltage in the soil under load were recorded.
Using intelligent algorithms, these changes made it possible to identify anomalies indicating soil
integrity violations and to develop a method for more accurately predicting collapses and monitoring
deformation processes.</p>
      <p>Thus, the application of time series analysis and intelligent data processing methods played a key
role in enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of soil foundation condition monitoring. The developed
methods improve the precision of identifying the initial stages of destruction, thereby enhancing
safety and preventing man-made accidents in geotechnical systems. These methods also hold the
potential for further improvement of monitoring processes and ensuring the reliability of structures
in a changing geological environment.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Declaration on Generative AI</title>
      <p>The authors have not employed any Generative AI tools.
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