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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Using the machine learning models to management in logistics and supply chain systems optimize time management</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Mohamed Hamada</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Adejor Abiche</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Gehad Hamada</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>International Information Technology University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>34/1 Manas St., Almaty</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="KZ">Kazakhstan</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>In today's world, where market competition is prevalent, industrial companies must be competitive by producing and selling high-quality products while providing excellent service. Establishing logistics systems helps solve specific problems related to optimizing production activities and maximizing the efficiency of managing processes that create value for consumers. In this research we explained how to optimize and manage the time of delivering company's orders in the best method using machine learning models like Linear regression and data visualization tools these provide a good result to minimize the time and the cost of logistics services. This optimization process achieves the organization's goals and magnitudes the business benefits in the logistics sector.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;Machine learning</kwd>
        <kwd>optimize logistics process</kwd>
        <kwd>supply chain optimization</kwd>
        <kwd>time management</kwd>
        <kwd>data analytics</kwd>
        <kwd>ML Algorithms</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        In today's competitive environment, the revolution in information technology, economic globalization,
and increasingly high customer expectations have led to significant changes in company supply chain
management (SCM). It has become evident that the competition is not between individual companies but
between supply chains as a whole [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]. SCM involves actively integrating supply chain activities, from
initial suppliers to end users, to deliver services, products, and information that maximize customer value
and provide sustainable competitive advantage. In the age of big data, large volumes of interactive data
are constantly being created, collected, and stored in various manufacturing industries [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. This data is
crucial for operations, management, and process design. Using this data judiciously and extracting
information and knowledge from it has the potential for significant gains. The immense volume of data
across various components of SCM has compelled companies to develop and implement new
technologies that can quickly and intelligently process large amounts of data [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. Traditional decision
support systems need to be improved for handling big data, necessitating the exploration of new, more
effective technologies. As a result, supply chain professionals are seeking to harness big data to create
intelligent supply chains in the era of big data.
      </p>
      <p>
        Artificial intelligence (AI) methods are best suited for addressing significant data challenges. Machine
learning (ML) methods, a popular discipline within AI, automatically identify and extract patterns from
large datasets [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. Machine learning algorithms can uncover hidden patterns, provide new insights, and
guide researchers in various fields such as manufacturing, operations, healthcare, and housing [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Additionally, machine learning plays a vital role in managing different aspects of the supply chain.
Recent interest in machine learning algorithms has emerged in supply chain management applications
due to the limitations of traditional methods in analyzing big data. Machine learning methods have high
capabilities in analyzing and interpreting large datasets, addressing non-linear problems common in
genuine supply chains, and working with extensive, unstructured data from various supply chain areas.
Therefore, a compelling case exists for replacing traditional and machine learning methods.</p>
      <p>On the other hand, machine learning techniques have been created to handle large amounts of
unstructured data. Machine learning methods are also significantly more effective than traditional
statistical approaches in identifying and predicting the most impactful supply chain performance factors.
Therefore, machine learning is crucial for companies to analyze large datasets in their supply chain
management SCM.The supply chain optimization problem has prompted many proposed techniques and
applications.</p>
      <p>
        Still, they often need to be more specific or knowledge-intensive to be implemented as an inexpensive,
user-friendly computer system. Implementing an optimization system for a new problem instance
requires significant effort and expert personnel involvement, with low levels of automation. This project
aims to develop strategies to increase automation in creating a new optimization system by focusing on
multi-objective optimization, optimization algorithm usability, and optimization model design [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        However, machine learning (ML) is strictly based on pattern recognition research in the 1980s. The
field stagnated for quite a long time due to technical limitations. Just a few years ago, ML underwent a
breakthrough caused by developing much more powerful processors. The new technical standard
enabled software engineers to work with complex algorithms. Furthermore, companies are already
recognizing the value of ML when it comes to optimizing their business or saving costs. Algorithms can
process more data than humans, more quickly derive patterns and models from them, and make more
accurate calculations and forecasts. The emerging automation reduces routine work and frees up
resources for value-adding activities and additional investments [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ].
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Literature review</title>
      <p>
        There is a strong need in the literature to explore the various applications of ML techniques in different
parts of the supply chain and logistics services, as most of the work has dealt with one, two, or limited
areas of the supply chain. For example, Wenzel et al., they applied machine learning techniques to
develop an automated supply chain management (SCM) structure [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]. Also, Lin et al., introduced the
application of artificial intelligence in Supply chain management [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Flores-García et al., presented a comprehensive assessment of literature that analyzes the
technological capabilities of smart production logistics (SPL) when using machine learning (ML) to
increase logistics skills in dynamic contexts [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ]. Pasupuleti et al., they leveraged the advanced machine
learning (ML) techniques to enhance logistics and inventory management [12]. Odimarha et al., they
applied the machine learning models to the companies in the oil and gas sector to improve operational
efficiency [13]. Youn et al., they used Data Analytics and Machine Learning the improve the logistics
services [14]. Hudnurkar et al., calculated the Delays for Truck Delivery Logistics using machine learning
models [15].
      </p>
      <p>However, there needs to be more focus on conducting a comprehensive study to look at the
applications of ML in various related aspects of the supply chain, which may impact the understanding of
how these valuable techniques can be effectively used in managing various aspects of SCM [16].
Therefore, this article develops a framework in which the most commonly used ML algorithms for
managing different areas of the supply chain will be discussed. The main contributions of the article are
summarized as follows:
(i) By comparing the effectiveness of traditional and AI methods when dealing with big data.
(ii) By reviewing, summarizing, and classifying the most commonly used artificial intelligence
techniques in SCM.</p>
      <p>(iii) Providing a detailed framework to explain the results of applying ML methods in supplier
selection and segmentation, supply chain risk forecasting and demand and sales assessment, production,
inventory management, transportation and distribution, sustainability (SD), and circular economy (CE).</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Research methodology</title>
      <p>The field of machine learning (ML) and supply chain management (SCM) has seen many applications of
research, but there is still a need for more research on applying ML algorithms in supply chain and
logistics management. There is also a need for more communication between researchers and
practitioners in this field, possibly due to practitioners requiring more knowledge about the benefits of
ML algorithms in solving SCM problems. This section will provide an overview of applying popular ML
algorithms to address supply chain challenges such as sourcing, supplier segmentation, supply chain risk
prediction, demand and sales estimation, manufacturing, inventory management, and transportation.</p>
      <p>Machine learning involves using statistical modeling to solve problems without explicitly
programming rules and instructions. This approach differs from traditional programming, where preset
rules are applied to existing data to obtain the desired result. In machine learning, the data is known in
advance, and the goal is to discover previously unknown rules to achieve the desired outcome. This
modern problem-solving approach can be precious in general business, especially supply chain
management. The complexity of a supply chain, with its numerous hidden and variable factors, can make
it very challenging or even impossible to model using traditional methods.</p>
      <p>Machine learning involves five main steps at a high level:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.</p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Data collection (feature selection) Data preparation (function development) Model selection and training Model evaluation</title>
        <p>Forecasting</p>
        <p>Analytics and predictive modeling can be utilized at nearly every stage of the supply chain to facilitate
efficient and precise sales, operations, and inventory planning. Here are the details:




</p>
        <p>Procurement: Predictive modeling can be employed to determine the equilibrium between
supply and demand and identify cost drivers.</p>
        <p>Production: Quality control and optimized planning based on inventory and production stage
opportunities.</p>
        <p>Warehousing: Workload optimization, stock relocation.</p>
        <p>Transportation: Route optimization and planning.</p>
        <p>Consumer: Credit scoring, recommendation systems, fraud detection.</p>
        <p>Furthermore, Linear regression is a machine learning technique to predict a continuous numeric
target variable, This method is straightforward, yet it effectively captures the linear or near-linear
relationships between the features utilized in the model. Understanding linear regression is essential as it
is the foundation for more advanced methods.</p>
        <p>Also, classification is one of the most common tasks in machine learning. It involves building models
that assign the object of interest to one of several known classes. Hundreds of classification methods are
available to predict the value of a response with two or more classes. The question arises whether this set
of methods adequately meets the needs of solved problems.</p>
        <p>Learning and Prediction:</p>
        <p>Once the data is split into training and test sets, the final step is to train the decision tree algorithm
and make predictions. Scikit-Learn contains a tree library with built-in classes/methods for various
decision tree algorithms. Since we are performing a classification task, we will use the Decision Tree
Classifier class in this example. The fit method of this class is called to train the algorithm on the training
data.</p>
        <p>In summary, in this research machine learning (ML) is an application that enables IT systems to
identify patterns and characteristics of existing data using self-learning algorithms. These algorithms are
based on statistical models and allow for predictions, classifications, and exploration of underlying
patterns. In simple terms, these algorithms help automate complex calculations to facilitate better
decision-making.</p>
        <p>In this research we utilized two datasets “NYC Taxi Trip Duration”, and “ Amazon Delivery analysis”
from Kaggle.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Research results and discussions</title>
      <p>At this section, we will explain the application of machine learning algorithms that we discussed in the
research methodology section, the application of machine learning algorithms generates more finding
that can facilitate the optimization of logistics services like the time management of orders’ deliver and
others. As shown in Fig. 1, The scatter plot depicts the actual trip durations on the x-axis and predicted
trip durations on the y-axis. Most points are clustered near the origin, indicating shorter trip durations.
However, some predicted values, such as negative durations, need revision, suggesting the model
struggles with outliers. Many points deviate from the red line, especially for longer trips, indicating
potential underprediction or overprediction. Outliers show extreme deviations, indicating issues with
the model or data. Consider data cleaning, feature engineering, and algorithm tuning to improve the
model's performance.</p>
      <p>The histogram in Fig. 2 displays delivery time distribution, with most deliveries between 130-150
minutes. This suggests a right-skewed pattern, indicating occasional longer delivery times. Machine
Learning models can utilize this data to predict delivery times, detect anomalies, optimize resources, and
improve estimated time of arrival accuracy. These insights can optimize logistics operations, leading to
better efficiency and customer satisfaction. Lastly, interpreting delivery time distributions through the
lens of ML can enhance logistics management systems, improving time management, resource
allocation, and customer satisfaction within the industry.</p>
      <p>The box plot in Fig. 3 shows that adverse weather conditions such as storms, fog, and wind lead to
longer and more variable delivery times. Machine Learning (ML) models can use this data to optimize
time management by predicting delivery times, allocating resources dynamically based on weather
conditions, optimizing routes during bad weather, and proactively informing customers about potential
delays. Weather data integration helps enhance operational efficiency, reduce delays, and improve
customer satisfaction in logistics.</p>
      <p>The box plot in Fig 4. shows that delivery times vary based on traffic conditions. Key insights include:





</p>
      <p>Traffic Impact: Jams and medium traffic lead to longer and more variable delivery times, while
low traffic results in shorter and consistent delivery times.</p>
      <p>Outliers: High and low traffic have significant outliers, indicating occasional extreme delays.
-In the Machine Learning (ML) context for Logistics, traffic is a feature where ML models can use
real-time traffic data to predict delivery times more accurately.</p>
      <p>Dynamic Routing: Models can optimize routes to avoid traffic and minimize delays.</p>
      <p>Resource Management: Understanding traffic patterns helps allocate resources effectively for
timely deliveries.</p>
      <p>Proactive Adjustments: ML can trigger alerts and adjust ETAs when traffic conditions change.
Integrating traffic data into ML models significantly enhances time management, improving the
reliability and efficiency of logistics operations.</p>
      <p>The box plot in Fig. 5, "Delivery Time by Vehicle Type" shows the distribution of delivery times for
different vehicles. Motorcycles have the lowest median delivery time and the smallest variability.
Motorcycles generally have the fastest and most consistent delivery times. Keep in mind that other
factors like traffic conditions and delivery distance can also affect delivery times.</p>
      <p>The box plot chart in Fig 6. illustrates delivery time distribution across four geographical areas: urban,
Metropolitan, Semi-Urban, and Other. Key findings show that urban areas have the shortest and most
consistent delivery times, while Other areas have the slowest. Factors like traffic conditions and delivery
distance can also impact delivery times, as can be seen. With the future advent of Drones in delivery, it is
most likely that these challenges will be highly mitigated soon.</p>
      <p>The scatter plot in Fig. 7, shows the relationship between delivery time and the distance between the
store and the drop-off location. Key Observations include the following:


</p>
      <p>No Strong Correlation: There is no clear linear relationship between delivery time and store-drop
distance.</p>
      <p>Delivery Time Variation: Delivery times vary significantly even for similar distances.
Outliers: Some data points with high delivery times, even for shorter distances, might represent
exceptional circumstances or errors. The chart indicates that factors beyond store-drop distance
are needed to predict delivery time accurately. Other factors like traffic conditions, delivery
mode, or order complexity likely play a more significant role. Additional Considerations such as:
- Data Distribution: Analyzing the distribution of delivery times for different distance ranges
could provide deeper insights. - Other Factors: Including additional variables like time of day, day
of the week, and order type could help uncover hidden patterns and improve the understanding
of delivery time factors.
With the possibility of future advancement in AI and ML, as can be noticeably viewed in the present
trends in cutting-edge development, the actualization of self-autonomous vehicles and drones that could
further enhance time management in LMS is almost in sight. Also, the integration of IoTs and Big Data
Analytics will provide ML models with even more granular insights to optimize time management in
LMS.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5. Research conclusion</title>
      <p>Applying machine learning (ML) models in logistics management systems (LMS) represents a pivotal
shift in logistics operations, offering a beacon of hope in the face of increasing pressure to deliver faster,
more efficiently, and with greater precision. ML integration into LMS optimizes time management and
presents a powerful solution to these challenges, inspiring optimism for the industry's future and human
life transformation. Throughout this article, we have explored the potential of some ML models,
including supervised learning models like linear regression and data visualization. These models
empower logistics companies to make informed decisions, improve operational efficiency, and optimize
critical areas like route planning, demand forecasting, inventory management, and dynamic scheduling,
instilling a sense of confidence in their capabilities in LMS.</p>
      <p>However, the journey toward fully optimized Logistics Management Systems through ML has
challenges. Issues related to data quality and availability, integration with existing systems, and ethical
and privacy concerns must be carefully addressed. High-quality data is essential for accurate ML
predictions, while seamless integration with legacy systems ensures that ML solutions can be effectively
implemented. Moreover, logistics companies must navigate the ethical implications of data usage,
ensuring compliance with privacy regulations and avoiding biases in ML models. The integrity of its
sources, which is directly proportional to its value, demands the utmost attention.</p>
      <p>Looking ahead, the future of logistics management systems will be shaped by continuous advances in
AI and ML, as well as the growing influence of the Internet of Things (IoTs) and big data. These
technologies will not just enable the creation of intelligent logistics networks but also revolutionize the
industry, making it capable of real-time decision-making, autonomous operations, and
hyperpersonalization. As AI becomes more sophisticated and IoT devices generate ever-larger datasets,
logistics companies can optimize their operations with unprecedented precision and agility, sparking
excitement for the future.</p>
      <p>In conclusion, machine learning holds the key to unlocking new levels of efficiency and effectiveness
in logistics management systems. By embracing ML, logistics companies can significantly improve their
time management and gain a competitive edge in an increasingly complex and demanding market. The
path forward involves leveraging ML's power and addressing the challenges and considerations that
come with it. As the logistics industry continues to evolve, those who successfully integrate ML into their
operations will be well-positioned to lead the way into the future of logistics, instilling a sense of
optimism and excitement for what's to come.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Declaration on Generative AI</title>
      <sec id="sec-6-1">
        <title>The authors have not employed any Generative AI tools.</title>
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</article>