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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Classification of engagement levels using random forest for gamified environments⋆</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Samat Mukhanov</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Daryn Amrin</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Kuanysh Abeshev</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Zhansaya Bekaulova</string-name>
          <email>bekaulova@iitu.edu.kz</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Syrym Zhakypbekov</string-name>
          <email>zhakypbekov@iitu.edu.kz</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Almaty Management University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Rozybakiyev street 227, Almaty 050060, Almaty</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="KZ">Kazakhstan</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>International Information Technology University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Manas st 34/1 050040 Almaty</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="KZ">Kazakhstan</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>In the current reality of improved live satisfaction, thanks to digitalization and globalization, young population have high availability of entertainment services, especially videogames, hence they tend prefer more gamified environment. Most areas can implement this to increase user engagement. In this study we identified important features, taken from SAGE (Smart Adaptive Gamified Education) dataset, that describes video game statistics of respondents, by using random forest for classifying player engagement levels into low, medium, and high categories based on various engagement metrics. We identified important features and correlations that highlight the key factors for improving engagement. In future studies use of classification and clustering will give a promising result at identifying features that can be used in gamified environments in real time to adjust mechanics (or rules) individually, increasing user engagement, and predicting unwanted results, like failure of students or losing clients. Furthermore, integrating deep learning techniques alongside traditional machine learning methods can enhance predictive accuracy and provide deeper insights into engagement patterns. Exploring user behavioral trends over time and analyzing adaptive learning strategies may also lead to more personalized and effective gamified experiences.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;gamification</kwd>
        <kwd>artificialintelligence</kwd>
        <kwd>random forest</kwd>
        <kwd>engagement</kwd>
        <kwd>education</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Gamification is used in many fields, like education, business, marketing. Implementation of this
concept can drastically improve performance metrics. With the large number of young gamers
across the globe, adoption of AI technologies in gamification is relevant in current reality [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. High
availability of digital entertainment services, especially games, led to the addiction to them by
young population.
      </p>
      <p>Besides, oftentimes in game environments they perceive and process information better than in
real life, like making math for maximizing values for winning in games, as experienced times by
times by some authors of this research.</p>
      <p>Gamification in the field of education has become a crucial approach to address challenges in
pedagogy. Keeping student engagement was always one of the most difficult tasks for teachers.
Traditional methods often struggle with that task due to a lack of motivation from students toward
old approaches.</p>
      <p>
        Students’ engagement and attendance is very important for academic organizations, and thus it
can be improved by AI enhanced gamification [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        In current digital era, there are different methods that offer interactivity and feedback through
games and social platforms. Machine learning approaches can process non-linear and complex data
with multiple dimensions. Implementation of AI can improve game mechanics by adjusting
algorithms for personalized game efforts [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>0000-0001-8761-4272 (S. Mukhanov); 0009-0003-0684-6947 (D. Amrin); 0000-0003-1140-7431 (K. Abeshev);
0009-00009339-9222 (Zh. Bekaulova); 0000-0001-9112-5922 (S. Zhakypbekov)</p>
      <p>In this study we will identify features that is important for engagement in gamification by
implementing Random Forest classification.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Literature review</title>
      <p>
        There are different researches in implementing AI in gamification. In the study, conducted by [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ],
prediction problem was used as classification problem for early identification of final outcomes of
students in the course, in which students are offered to choose between traditional and gamified
approaches. In modern approach they identified an important quantitative variable for
improvement in the course. Their methodology can be used on small datasets.
      </p>
      <p>
        Certain study used concept of gamification in assisting students at learning human anatomy,
with the help of virtual assistant at giving recommendations for improving needed aspects [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Gamification approach with machine learning can be implemented for improving ecology by
increasing user involvement in sorting waste in correct garbage [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. It can also contribute to
ecology by motivating people for efficient energy usage in smart infrastructures, with
implementation of bi-directional Recurrent Neural Networks for improved forecasting of actions
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Gamification can also be used in improving critical thinking abilities in education. The solution
as Adaptive Critical Thinking Enhancement System (ACTES) were proposed by Correia et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ],
in which gamified learning modules, evaluation algorithms, insights monitoring panel, cooperative
solution finding platform are provided.
      </p>
      <p>
        Compared to gamification, adaptive gamification in education can be used for adaptation of the
system for the certain type of person, depending on involvement with gamified environment [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        In some cases, gamification have low impact on improving cognitive load due to lack of support
and structured assistance from the teacher or platform, as shown in work on programming
education of Zhan et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. They concluded, that for increasing the motivation of students, puzzle
games are the most effective, while for increasing academic achievements, reasoning strategy
games are worth implementing. Besides, gamified applications, that were used as teaching tools
improved academic achievements, while application used as rivalry- driven mechanisms improved
motivation and thinking skills.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Research methods</title>
      <p>
        In our study we used SAGE (Smart Adaptive Gamified Education) dataset [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ]. This dataset is made
by conducting a survey and consists of 1929 items, which is enough for our analysis. It consists of
demographic data, preferred game genres, gaming experience, and gamification preferences of
respondents.
      </p>
      <p>Time per week is taken as engagement level as low, medium and high for our analysis in order
to make predictions about important features in player (any subject of gamification, like education
or marketing) engagement.</p>
      <p>Analysis is made with the support of sklearn Random Forest Classifier for making engagement
classification.</p>
      <p>
        The Random Forest (RF) algorithm is an ensemble learning method that constructs multiple
decision trees during training and aggregates their predictions through majority voting (for
classification) or averaging (for regression) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ]. The classifier was configured with number of
estimators equal to 100, indicating 100 decision trees in the ensemble.
      </p>
      <p>
        The random state has 42 parameter ensured reproducibility of results. RF was chosen for its
ability to:
• Process the mixed data types and non-linear relationships.
• Give interpretability through feature importance scores.
• Avoid overfitting as much as possible in contrast to individual decision trees.
StandardScaler standardizes features by removing the mean and scaling to unit variance [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ].
z= x−μ ,
      </p>
      <p>σ
where μ is the mean, σ is the standard deviation.</p>
      <p>
        LabelEncoder converts categorical target labels into numerical values, enabling compatibility
with Scikit-Learn’s classification algorithms [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Engagement levels were derived from time_per_week using quantile-based discretization
(pd.qcut), ensuring balanced class distributions. Data was split into 80% training and 20% testing
sets (test_size=0.2), preserving class distribution via stratification. Features included 17 engagement
mechanics (e.g., "cooperation," "storytelling"), while the target was the encoded engagement level.</p>
      <p>Confusion matrix highlights true vs. predicted class distributions [15].</p>
      <p>ROC curve analysis enhances the evaluation of the Random Forest Classifier's performance by
providing a threshold-independent perspective on class classification [16, 17].</p>
      <p>Feature correlation analysis is very crucial at understanding the relationships between different
predictive variables [18, 19]. Highly correlated features may indicate redundancy, while weak
correlations can suggest independence, and by visualizing correlations within the top 10 most
important features, we can gain insights into how these features interact and their potential impact
on the model’s predictions [20, 21].</p>
      <p>The correlation matrix quantifies the strength and direction of relationships between the
features, ranging from -1 (strong negative correlation) to +1 (strong positive correlation), and in
this study Pearson’s correlation coefficient were used [22, 23].</p>
      <p>r X ,Y =</p>
      <p>∑ ( X i− X )(Y i−Y )
√∑ ( X i− X )2 ∑ (Y i−Y )2</p>
      <p>In order to visualize and analyze how features, vary across different engagement levels,
Kernel Density Estimate (KDE) plot is used.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Results and discussion</title>
      <p>The model is generally quite effective at predicting the true label when it's "Medium," with
the highest number of correct predictions (59). Low engagement is often misclassified as
High (44 times), suggesting the model sometimes overestimates engagement levels for
low-engagement players (Fig.1).
(1)
(2)</p>
      <p>High engagement is also frequently misclassified as Medium (46 times) or Low (44 times),
showing the model has difficulty distinguishing high engagement from lower levels.</p>
      <p>There’s a notable number of misclassifications between Low and High across all true labels,
highlighting a need to refine the model to better distinguish between these two extremes.</p>
      <p>Table 1 and Figure 2 highlights that game economy, competition, reputation, social pressure,
and time pressure are the most significant factors in predicting player engagement, with economy
scoring close to 0.07, which is highest.</p>
      <p>These elements are critical in keeping players in the game, because they are related to in- game
currency, competitive interactions, social status, peer influences, and timed challenges.</p>
      <p>Lesser impact features such as points, puzzles, and storytelling have lower importance scores,
suggesting that while they contribute to the gaming experience, they are not as influential in
driving player retention.</p>
      <p>Gamification platforms developers and game developers can enhance player engagement by
focusing on these high-impact areas to ensure a more captivating and rewarding experience for
users.</p>
      <p>As from correlation between player demographics and engagement metrics, that represented by
heatmap in Figure 3, age shows a negative correlation with both times spent playing weekly and
points scored, meaning that older players engage less intensely than younger players.</p>
      <p>Years of gaming experience positively correlate with higher scores and advanced levels,
indicating that veteran players tend to perform better, as it should be. Social factors such as
cooperation, competition, and social pressure are strongly linked to higher engagement metrics,
highlighting their importance in keeping players invested. Additionally, elements like time
pressure and novelty have strong positive correlations with player engagement, emphasizing the
effectiveness of introducing new challenges and time-sensitive tasks to maintain player interest.</p>
      <p>Figure 4 demonstrates the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves for the random forest
classifier to illustrate its performance across three engagement levels: Low, Medium, and High. The
ROC curve for the medium engagement class (AUC = 0.64) indicates the highest performance,
suggesting that the classifier is most effective in distinguishing this class.</p>
      <p>The Low engagement class (AUC = 0.57) and High engagement class (AUC = 0.52) show lower
performance, with the High class being the least accurately predicted. These AUC values reflect the
classifier's ability to correctly identify true positives while minimizing false positives, with higher
values representing better performance. The dashed black line represents the line of
nodiscrimination, serving as a baseline (AUC = 0.5). Overall, the random forest classifier performs
best for the medium engagement level, providing insights into its diagnostic capabilities across
different engagement categories.</p>
      <p>The density plots from figure 5 demonstrate the distribution of various game elements across
three engagement levels: low, medium, and high.</p>
      <p>Each plot shows how these elements, including points, levels, cooperation, competition,
progression, objectives, puzzles, novelty, social pressure, acknowledgment, stats, time pressure,
economy, sensation, reputation, narrative, and storytelling, are distributed among players with
different engagement levels.</p>
      <p>The x-axis represents a scale from 0 to 6 for each element, and the y-axis represents the density.
Blue indicates low engagement, orange indicates medium engagement, and green indicates high
engagement.</p>
      <p>The plots reveal that players with high engagement (green) tend to have higher values in
elements like points, levels, cooperation, competition, novelty, and time pressure compared to
those with medium (orange) and low engagement (blue).</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5. Conclusions and prospects for further research</title>
      <p>This study explored the impact of various gamification elements on player engagement using
machine learning techniques. By analyzing the SAGE dataset, we identified key factors, such as
game economy, competition, reputation, social pressure, and time pressure. They significantly
influence engagement levels. Our findings suggest that these elements are crucial for designing
engaging experiences, whether in education, marketing, or other interactive platforms.</p>
      <p>The Random Forest model demonstrated its effectiveness in predicting engagement levels,
particularly for medium-engagement users. However, the classification of low and high
engagement levels showed room for improvement. Future research can improve these predictions
by using advanced machine learning models or expanding the dataset to include other important
behavioral insights.</p>
      <p>Besides improving engagement, gamification combined with AI can potentially adapt learning
experiences dynamically, changing game mechanics to individual needs, and even predicting
potential challenges such as student disengagement. By implementing these insights, developers
can design more engaging and satisfying gamified platforms, that prioritize which elements to
enhance or modify to improve player experience and retention.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Declaration on Generative AI</title>
      <p>The authors have not employed any Generative AI tools.
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