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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">1613-0073</issn>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Modeling Patient Trajectories in a Quebec Health Institution: Developing a Process Mining-Based Decision Support Tool for Healthcare Management</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Alexandra Langford-Avelar</string-name>
          <email>alexandra.langford.avelar@umontreal.ca</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Workshop</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>School of Public Health, Université de Montréal</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Quebec</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="CA">Canada</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Unité de Soutien SSA Québec</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Quebec</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="CA">Canada</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2025</year>
      </pub-date>
      <fpage>20</fpage>
      <lpage>24</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>Healthcare institutions face growing challenges in ensuring care continuity across increasingly complex service networks. This doctoral project focuses on designing a process mining-based tool to visualize and analyze patient trajectories across the continuum of care, supporting healthcare managers in operational decision-making within a Quebec institution. The tool will support healthcare managers by generating interpretable process maps from large-scale administrative health data, enabling improved decision-making and continuity of care. The project unfolds in three phases: (1) centralizing and standardizing data; (2) applying and refining process mining techniques to generate multi-level trajectory models from individual patient logs; and (3) integrating the algorithm into an interactive tool co-developed with institutional partners. This research contributes to a novel, system-wide approach to understanding care processes and aligns with the development of learning health systems.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Decision</kwd>
        <kwd>Process mining</kwd>
        <kwd>Patient trajectories</kwd>
        <kwd>Health information system</kwd>
        <kwd>Administrative health data</kwd>
        <kwd>Healthcare continuity</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Background</title>
      <p>
        Healthcare institutions face challenges in ensuring care coordination and continuity, particularly in
supporting well-integrated patient’s journeys. Although vast amounts of health data are generated daily,
much of it remains underused for gaining a comprehensive understanding of healthcare trajectories.
This underutilization hampers informed decision-making and may contribute to ineficiencies across
healthcare systems [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2 ref3">1, 2, 3</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        This research addresses a gap in current healthcare management practices: the lack of a
comprehensive, data-driven, and adaptive mechanism to accurately model and optimize healthcare trajectories
across fragmented information systems. The motivation for this project stems directly from the
persistent challenges in achieving true care coordination and continuity, which are fundamental to
patient-centered care [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2 ref3">1, 2, 3</xref>
        ]. The traditional reliance on static, predefined clinical pathways fail to
capture the dynamic, iterative, and often non-linear nature of patient’s journeys [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. This deficiency
not only limits our understanding of patient’s needs but also leads to suboptimal care, increased costs,
compromised health outcomes, and diminished provider well-being.
      </p>
      <p>
        The proposed solution adopts a process-based approach to model patient’s trajectories using
administrative health data. Unlike prescriptive models, this approach reflects how care unfolds in time and space,
acknowledging the inherent complexity and variability of healthcare trajectories [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6 ref7 ref8">5, 6, 7, 8</xref>
        ]. It enables
the verification of real-world patient pathways against established clinical guidelines, highlighting
deviations and ineficiencies [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref9">9, 10</xref>
        ]. Viewing each patient healthcare trajectory as a complex, evolving
      </p>
      <p>CEUR</p>
      <p>ceur-ws.org
system fosters a more comprehensive, flexible, and actionable understanding of care processes. This
shift from ”what should happen” to ”what actually happens” is fundamental to proactive management
and resource allocation [11].</p>
      <p>The importance of this project is particularly pronounced within the Quebec healthcare context.
Despite the evident advantages of interoperable health information systems (HIS), Quebec’s health
and social services network is characterized by significant fragmentation, with over 9,000 distinct HIS
identified in 2019 [ 12]. These systems, often designed for specific local needs, create pervasive data silos,
both between and within a healthcare institution [12]. As patients interact with various facilities (e.g.,
ER, laboratories, long-term care), their administrative health data are dispersed across these specialized,
disparate systems. The absence of a unique patient identifier, coupled with multiple data formats and
a lack of standardized data entry practices, exacerbates this fragmentation, making a holistic view of
patient’s journeys nearly impossible [13].</p>
      <p>This project aims to develop a decision support tool that uses process mining to generate interpretable
models of patient trajectories from fragmented administrative health data within a Quebec healthcare
institution. Instead of focusing on specific diagnoses or isolated departmental workflows, the tool will
ofer a comprehensive view of service utilization across the entire continuum of care. By consolidating
and analyzing dispersed data sources, the project seeks to overcome interoperability barriers and
produce actionable insights into actual care processes. By addressing common challenges in data
fragmentation and care coordination, the tool ofers a transferable framework that can be deployed
across diverse healthcare systems. This integrated approach will support healthcare managers in making
informed, data-driven decisions and ultimately contribute to enhancing the quality and eficiency of
care delivery.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Objective</title>
      <p>This project focuses on designing a process mining-based framework to model and visualize healthcare
trajectories from administrative data, supporting operational decision-making within a major Quebec
healthcare institution. Co-developed with the CIUSSS de l’Ouest-de-l’Île-de-Montréal (COMTL) this
project leverages six years (2020-2026) of anonymized administrative health data from multiple care
settings (e.g., hospitals, long-term care, outpatient clinics) sourced from 45 distinct information systems.</p>
      <p>To achieve this main objective, three sub-objectives are required:
1. Centralize COMTL’s administrative health data into a standardized database. (completed)
2. Apply and refine process mining techniques to generate aggregated representations of patient
trajectories from individual logs, ensuring the models are both methodologically robust and
operationally relevant for COMTL decision-makers.
3. Integrate the algorithm into a functional tool and validate its decision-support potential through
case studies aligned with COMTL’s management priorities.</p>
      <p>The project includes a methodological development phase aimed at designing and testing algorithms
to meet the three sub-objectives using historical data (2020 to 2024). This phase will validate the approach
while developing and refining the algorithms. Once validated, these algorithms will be deployed to
continuously integrate new data (2025 to 2026). The resulting tool will enable the visualization of
COMTL healthcare trajectories across diferent time frames, levels of granularity, and population strata.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Methods</title>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>3.1. Objective 1: Creation of standardized databases (completed)</title>
        <p>The first objective was the creation of two centralised and standardized databases: one dedicated to
patients and another to the services they received. This was achieved using Extract, Transform, Load
(ETL) processes implemented in SQL. The completion of this objective provides the essential structured
data necessary for the subsequent analysis and modeling of patient care trajectories.
Patient Database
Fragmentation across healthcare information systems creates multiple administrative records for the
same patient, each identified diferently across facilities, services, and databases. This fragmentation
limits the ability to track a patient’s complete journey, posing a major barrier to ensuring continuity of
care [14]. To address this, we developed a deterministic matching algorithm that consolidates patient
records into a unique identifier [ 15]. The algorithm leverages available socio-demographic data and
links all relevant record numbers, using a robust matching key based on the structure of the health
insurance number (Figure 1A). When discrepancies appeared across records, we applied tailored rules
depending on the variable type. For time-dependent variables like addresses or phone numbers, the
algorithm consistently retained the most recent data, thereby reflecting the evolution of information
over time. For fixed variables, such as name or date of birth, the agreement across diferent sources
was evaluated using contingency tables. This process enabled the consolidation of approximately 10
million active records (2020-2024) into 3 million unique patients. From this consolidated dataset,
we were able to assess the consistency of key attributes, such as sex, date of birth, and first and last
names, across the various information systems that contributed to our data (Figure 1B).</p>
        <p>Service Database
The second database, the service database, was constructed to capture all healthcare services provided
across the various COMTL facilities. This was achieved through a comprehensive union of service data
extracted from the diverse available sources. The pivotal step involved linking each service record to
the unique patient key that had been generated in the “patient database”. This linkage enabled the
aggregation of all services associated to a single individual, thereby laying the groundwork for the
generation of both individual and aggregated patient trajectories.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>3.2. Objective 2: Aggregation strategies and process mining techniques</title>
        <p>This objective will leverage the previously established service database, transforming raw service data
into actionable insights through the application of process mining. The initial step involves creating an
event log including unique patient identifiers, specific activities performed, and precise timestamps
(start and end). To reduce model complexity and avoid the so-called ”spaghetti efect” associated with
large-scale data, the analysis will implement two levels of data aggregation: a macro level for main
activities (e.g., hospitalization) and a detailed level for associated secondary activities (e.g., radiology
during hospitalization). This dual-granularity approach will preserve data richness while ensuring
interpretability across service, facility, or institutional levels.</p>
        <p>The generated event log will then serve as input for the modeling algorithm, which will generate
process maps as graphs, with nodes representing activities and arcs indicating their chronological
sequence. To ensure methodological rigor and build upon existing research, this phase will begin
with a comparative evaluation of established process mining algorithms. These techniques will be
tested on the constructed event logs to assess their suitability for modeling complex and heterogeneous
patient trajectories. Descriptive statistics, such as activity volumes, durations, and proportions, will
be integrated into both nodes and arcs. A key focus is managing the complexity of process maps. To
address this, we will apply strategies such as filtering low-frequency arcs using the Pareto principle
(retaining 80% of significant trajectories, with filtered arcs analyzed independently for deviations) and
implementing hierarchical aggregation to enable flexible visualization across diferent organizational
levels [16].</p>
        <p>The quality of the process maps will be evaluated against four interdependent criteria: Fitness
(model’s ability to reproduce trajectories), Precision (proposing only observed paths), Generalization
(considering valid but unobserved trajectories), and Simplicity (clear interpretation). Striking the right
balance between precision and generalization will require careful calibration, with validation from
clinical experts to avoid producing inconsistent or misleading representations.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-3">
        <title>3.3. Objective 3: Tool integration and collaborative validation for decision support</title>
        <p>The third objective focuses on integrating the developed algorithms into an operational, interactive
dashboard designed to support decision-making by healthcare managers at COMTL. This tool will be
developed using Power BI, a software already widely adopted within Quebec’s healthcare network,
ensuring compatibility with existing workflows and user familiarity. The dashboard will enable dynamic
visualization of process maps and key indicators through customizable filters (e.g., temporal window,
patient strata, level of granularity), allowing users to explore trajectories across various dimensions. A
central aspect of this objective lies in the close collaboration with COMTL managers, clinical leads, and
ifeld experts. Their involvement will be instrumental in validating the interpretability and operational
relevance of the generated process maps. Through a series of co-development workshops and iterative
feedback cycles, the tool’s functionalities and outputs will be aligned with the institution’s operational
needs. This approach ensures that the trajectories generated by the algorithm meaningfully address
current management challenges, such as care delays, continuity disruptions, and resource bottlenecks.</p>
        <p>Beyond its descriptive capabilities, the tool will include a proactive alert system designed to flag
atypical situations requiring managerial attention. This includes both trajectory-level anomalies, such
as care sequences or durations that deviate significantly from established patterns, and volume-level
alerts, such as sudden increases in patient flow that may exceed the institution’s available resources (e.g.,
exceeding bed capacity or surpassing scheduled staf availability). These alerts will be configured in
collaboration with domain experts, based on thresholds reflective of clinical or organizational priorities.
Such cases may signal quality or coordination issues and will be subject to in-depth investigation to
identify potential ineficiencies or risks.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Contributions and Perspectives</title>
      <p>This research builds upon and extends existing work in process mining, particularly within healthcare.
While process mining has been applied to clinical guideline compliance and departmental analysis,
few studies address its use in large-scale governance or service integration in healthcare systems. The
research draws from foundational work and adds methodological innovation in managing scale and
complexity, resolving interoperability challenges across fragmented information systems, and ensuring
real-time actionable use of process models. By embedding process models into a local governance
tool used by managers and clinicians, this project bridges the gap between data science research and
health system transformation. It actively contributes to the development of a Learning Health System
(LHS), where health data are continuously harnessed to monitor, adapt, and improve service delivery
across the care continuum. In addition to supporting operational decision-making, the tool provides a
methodological framework that can be reused across diverse healthcare systems.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5. Timeline</title>
      <p>The timing of this submission is particularly well-aligned with the progression of my project. I have
recently completed and successfully defended my research protocol, receiving positive feedback from
ifeld experts. In parallel, I have achieved the first objective of the project: the development of centralized
databases. As I now enter the algorithm development phase for process mining, this doctoral consortium
ofers an ideal opportunity to present tangible progress while remaining receptive to expert feedback to
further refine and strengthen the methodological approach.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>6. Declaration on Generative AI</title>
      <p>During the preparation of this work the author used DeepL in order to improve language and readability.
After using this tool, the author reviewed and edited the content as needed and take full responsibility
for the content of the publication.
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          ,
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            <surname>Benevento</surname>
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          , R. de la Fuente,
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      </ref>
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  </back>
</article>