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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Tackling the Air Trafic Flow and Capacity Management Problem with Explainable Answer Set Programming</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Alexander Beiser</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>TU Wien</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Vienna</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="AT">Austria</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2025</year>
      </pub-date>
      <abstract>
        <p>Air Trafic Flow and Capacity Management (ATFM) is a key area for achieving and sustaining safe and eficient air trafic. However, due to a shortage of air trafic controllers and increasing levels of air trafic, ATFM becomes increasingly challenging. To address this, stakeholders proposed the integration of Artificial Intelligence into the ATFM domain. Due to the nature of ATFM being a safety-critical dynamic system, any usage of AI must be trustworthy. However, while recent studies have focused primarily on the modeling dimension, the issue of ensuring trustworthiness has largely been neglected. This project will tackle the lack of trustworthiness in AI for ATFM by combining the logic programming paradigm Answer Set Programming (ASP) with explanations. We aim towards solving and explaining real-world-sized instances of the European airspace. To achieve scalability and explainability, we will develop a prototype that combines several state-of-the-art ASP techniques.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;Answer Set Programming</kwd>
        <kwd>ASP</kwd>
        <kwd>Trustworthy AI</kwd>
        <kwd>Explainable AI</kwd>
        <kwd>Problem Decomposition</kwd>
        <kwd>Air Trafic Management</kwd>
        <kwd>Air Trafic Flow and Capacity Management Problem</kwd>
        <kwd>ATFM</kwd>
        <kwd>ATM</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Air Trafic Flow and Capacity Management (ATFM) is one of the key areas in Air Trafic Management
(ATM). While ATM is concerned with the eficient and safe flow of air trafic, ATFM aims to achieve
a balance between demand and capacity [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. Demand in ATFM refers to the number of flights, while
capacity is the maximum number of flights a region of airspace, called a sector, can handle. When
demand exceeds capacity for a sector, air trafic safety is jeopardised. Controllers must therefore mitigate
the imbalance by taking measures to either reduce demand or increase capacity. Measures for reducing
demand include delaying or rerouting airplanes. Measures for increasing the capacity of regions is a
long-term goal, where the latest research focuses on dynamic airspace configuration (DAC) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">2, 3</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        At the time of writing, ATFM faces unprecedented challenges due to shortages in air trafic controllers,
an increase in air trafic, and the development of innovative air mobility concepts, such as drones. These
challenges lead to an increase in demand, with a simultaneous decrease in capacity. One key technology
towards easing this imbalance is the proposed integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into ATFM. The
integration of AI should increase capacity by automatically suggesting or taking the optimal measures.
This integration was proposed by the key stakeholders in ATM, resulting in the Single European Sky
ATM Research (SESAR) master plan [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ] and the AI roadmap of the European Union Aviation Safety
Agency (EASA) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. However, the integration of AI into ATFM is highly challenging, due to the nature
of ATFM being a safety-critical dynamic system - minor errors can lead to catastrophic consequences.
Therefore, any incorporation of AI must be trustworthy [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. Trustworthy AI is lawful, ethical, and
robust [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ], where one of the key pillars for enabling trustworthy AI is the development of explainable
AI (XAI) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Work on the AI models for ATFM has so far primarily focused on mathematical optimization, such
as mixed-integer programming (MIP), and machine learning techniques [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]. These techniques show
promising results in that they can model relatively large sections of airspace eficiently [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. Still,
modeling the European airspace remains infeasible, and most models only consider a small set of
applicable ATFM measures. Further, recent work does not properly address the challenge of trustworthy
AI or the integration of XAI. Evidently, it remains open how an eficient, trustworthy, and explainable
system can be designed.
      </p>
      <p>
        This project aims to address these challenges by using state-of-the-art methods of the logic
programming paradigm Answer Set Programming (ASP) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ] and combining ASP with useful explanations [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ].
Our main contributions shall be three-fold: first, the creation of an abstract model of the ATFM challenge
in the European airspace for ASP. Second, the development of a hybrid ASP system that is able to
solve real-world-sized instances [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ]. Third, the integration of an explanation component capable of
delivering useful explanations why certain measures have been taken [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13 ref8">8, 13</xref>
        ].
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Background</title>
      <p>
        ATM and ATFM. ATM aims at achieving safe and eficient air trafic. For ensuring safety, one typically
distinguishes between the tactical and strategic level. On the tactical level, safety is achieved by
separating aircraft [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. Typically, any two aircrafts must be separated by at least 5  horizontally,
and 1000   vertically [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ]. Air trafic controllers (ATCs) are responsible for achieving this separation.
They monitor trafic, keep contact with the pilots, and provide pilots with instructions. Moving to the
strategic level, we observe that ATCs are typically responsible for a sector, which is a defined region of
airspace. Conversely, airspace is divided laterally and vertically into sectors. Each sector can handle
at most a certain number of airplanes safely per hour - this is its capacity. Conversely, the number of
airplanes that fly through a sector is the demand. Capacity is dependent on various factors, ranging from
ATC stafing, over the geometrical shape of the sector, to temporary efects, such as thunderstorms or
strikes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. On the strategic level, safety is ensured by balancing demand and capacity. This is achieved
by taking measures, such as rerouting or delaying airplanes, or reconfiguring sectors.
ASP. Answer Set Programming (ASP) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ] is a symbolic AI and logic programming paradigm that has
seen a rise in popularity for modeling and solving industrial problems [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
        ]. A program is written as a
set of rules, where we will briefly introduce the basics of the syntax and semantics for programs with
variables (non-ground programs). A program Π consists of rules  of the form 1(X1) ∨ . . . ∨ ℓ(Xℓ) ←
ℓ+1(Xℓ+1), . . . , (X), ¬+1(X+1), . . . , ¬(X), where (X) is a literal, , ,  are
nonnegative integers s.t.  ≤  ≤ , and X = ⟨1, . . . , ⟩ is a term vector that comprises of constants
or variables. We say  := {1, . . . , } is the head,  := {+1, . . . , } is the body, where + and
− is the restriction to the positive and negative occurrences, respectively. Grounding refers to the
instantiation of the variables with all possible domain values, resulting in a ground program [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Semantics is defined over a ground program. Let the Herbrand base HB(Π) be the set of all atoms
of Π . An interpretation  is a set of atoms  ⊆ HB(Π) .  satisfies a rule  if ( ∪ − ) ∩  ̸= ∅ or
+ ∖  ̸= ∅.  is a model of Π if it satisfies all rules of Π . The Gelfond-Lifschitz (GL) reduct of Π under 
is the program Π  obtained from Π by first removing all rules  with − ∩  ̸= ∅ and then removing
all ¬ where  ∈ − from the remaining rules  [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
        ].  is an answer set of a program Π if  is a minimal
model (w.r.t. ⊆ ) of   . For additional information, we refer to the standard literature [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18 ref19">18, 19</xref>
        ].
Trustworthy and XAI. Due to the nature of ATM being a safety-critical dynamic system, every AI
application in the ATM domain has to be trustworthy [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4 ref5 ref7">7, 5, 4</xref>
        ]. Crucial, for achieving trustworthiness,
is the principle of explicability, i.e., the ability to generate an explanation why a model has taken a
particular decision [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ]. Moving to a psychological perspective, explanations are a well-studied subject,
where explanations for humans are social and generally contrastive [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13 ref8">8, 13</xref>
        ]: people prefer the form “Why
P rather than Q?” over “Why P?”.
      </p>
      <p>
        The field of XAI is a rapidly progressing field, which incorporates the insights from psychology and
the social sciences with research from both symbolic and subsymbolic AI. Recall from standard XAI
terminology that if a model is inherently explainable, it is called ante-hoc, otherwise post-hoc explainable.
As in ASP the model is defined by rules, ASP is ante-hoc explainable [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20, 21</xref>
        ]. Evidently, we are not
required to build surrogate models for ASP explanations. The literature of XAI for ASP is primarily
concerned about why an atom is in an answer set, or absent from it. Diferent XAI methods have been
proposed for ASP [22], which includes systems such as xclingo [23], spock [24], or xASP [25].
Related Work. To the best of our knowledge, the current employed method for ATFM is based on a
heuristic first-come first-serve basis: flights which are ifled (announced) later are rerouted or delayed
ifrst. Further, (truly) dynamic sector allocation is currently not used [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        In 1996, a first mathematical optimization-based approach was proposed to tackle the ATFM
problem [26]. Later approaches incorporated en-route sector capacities more thoroughly [27] and allow
planes to be rerouted [28]. Current research focuses on improvements of the computational aspect [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ],
or on multi-objective formulations [29]. Related to this are approaches that tackle the airspace sector
design for optimal capacity [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ], hybrid approaches specially crafted for drones in dense urban areas [30],
heuristic approaches using large neighborhood search [31], and the future of air trafic control in
high-density settings [32]. While the domains of the so far mentioned work overlap with our project,
the methodologies difer. Most of the discussed work uses mathematical optimization, with integer
programming, while we plan to use ASP. Further, no explanations are given, which is a known problem
for optimization approaches in ATM in general [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Also related are approaches that focus entirely on the logistic perspective of drones, thereby ignoring
ATFM constraints. These methods are called drone scheduling problems and include adaptations of
the traveling salesperson problem or the vehicle routing problem [33, 34, 35, 36, 37]. In the drone
scheduling literature, a promising approach exists which uses ASP [38]. In contrast to these approaches,
we consider a diferent problem domain - mixed airspace - and a diferent problem setting - ATFM.</p>
      <p>Approaches that aim at ensuring safety at the tactical level focus on a single sector. The goal is to
identify potential losses of separation between aircraft and perform evasive manoeuvres [39]. Methods
include reinforcement learning (RL) [40] or encoder-decoder structures for trajectory prediction [41].
As these methods are currently hard to compare, BlueSky-Gym [42] proposes a platform for comparing
RL-based tactical separation methods. Some tactical methods focus on explainability, due to their
post-hoc nature [40, 43]. In contrast to these methods, we focus on the strategic level.</p>
      <p>
        ASP has been used in the industry [44] and especially in transport logistics, such as train
scheduling [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
        ]. In the aviation domain, ASP was used for the already mentioned drone scheduling [38] and
the proposed decision support system for the space-shuttle [45]. To the best of our knowledge, no
other usage of ASP in aviation is known. Reviews have been published, investigating AI and XAI in
aviation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ], the usage of RL for the tactical level [39], or the ATFM problem [46].
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Research Goals</title>
      <p>
        We plan to alleviate the challenges that ATFM faces, with a system based on ASP, capable of suggesting
ATFM measures. We ensure trustworthiness by developing an explanation component for the already
ante-hoc explainable ASP system. We proceed to describe our three main contributions:
• ASP model for ATFM. To the best of our knowledge, no ASP model has thus far been published
for ATFM. We will create an abstract model of the European airspace, which allows us to predict
and react to capacity overloads of sectors. When a sector overload is detected, the model will be
able to propose diferent approaches towards easing the overload, from delaying and rerouting
airplanes, to restructuring sectors. The model will be multi-objective, as there are multiple
conflicting objectives, such as not overloading a sector or minimizing ATFM delay.
• Scalability and Performance. The aim of the project is to be able to handle real-life example
instances sizes comprising over 30.000 flights per day in the European airspace. We will achieve
this through a hybrid approach, possibly using multi-shot solving [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ], heuristics [47], problem
decomposition [48], advanced grounding approaches [49, 50, 51], and the combined usage with of
other state-of-the-art paradigms [52]. The data will be gathered through multiple sources, where
the primary source is the EUROCONTROL Aviation Data Repository for Research [53]. Finally,
we plan to investigate the applicability of our model by simulating it on state-of-the-art ATM
simulators, such as BlueSky [54] and Mercury [55].
• XAI for ASP. We plan to develop a useful XAI component for ASP, which is able to explain why
a certain flight was rerouted or delayed - or a sector reconfigured. To integrate latest research, we
enable contrastive explanations, such as asking why was flight  rerouted and not flight  [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13 ref8">8, 13</xref>
        ].
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Research Status &amp; Outlook</title>
      <p>The project is currently in its first phase, that is, the creation of relatively small abstract models. We
briefly describe the ASP parts of the first (exact) model. Our model is split into two encodings - one for
deriving solutions to the ATFM problem and one for explanations.</p>
      <p>We briefly describe the ATFM solutions encoding, where in the following we show the most important
rules and predicates. We assume that all flights are properly filed (known in advance). We denote
ifled flight plans with the predicate flightPlan/3 (FlightID,Time,Location) and sectors with
capacities as sector/2 (SectorID,SectorCapacity). Sector connections are modeled as a graph
 = (, ), where  are the sectors and  the edges between sectors, denoted as sectorEdge/2
(Sector1,Sector2). When flights are conflicting, we may either delay them or reroute them, which
we denote as rescheduling and the predicate reschedule/1 (FlightID). We accept the flight plan,
unless a flight must be rescheduled. We denote an accepted flight as flight/3 with the same terms as
for flightPlan. This results in the rule: flight(ID,T,X) ← flightPlan(ID,T,X),
¬reschedule(ID). We model sector capacity overload as a hard constraint ← sector(X,C),
time(T), #count{ID:flight(ID,T,X)} &gt; C. Lastly, we optimize for minimized ATFM delay,
where we model the ATFM delay of a flight as arrivalDelay/2 (FlightID,Time), which results in
the weak constraint ⇝ arrivalDelay(ID,DIFF).[DIFF@1,ID]. The not-shown rules encode time
and world consistency. An example of world consistency is that if a flight is rescheduled, then the
planned departure sector must correspond to the actual departure sector.</p>
      <p>We proceed with the description of the XAI component, where we assume a given answer set  of the
solution encoding. Rescheduled flights are represented with the predicate rescheduled/1. Provided
a user wants to know why a flight with ID FlightID was rescheduled, the XAI component can answer
two questions: “Why was the flight FlighID rescheduled?” and “Does there exist another solution
where FlightID is not rescheduled?” To obtain the answer to the first question, we assume that flight
FlightID is not rescheduled, while all other flights remain as in the answer set . Further, we relax
the hard constraint regarding sector capacity in a separate encoding, which enables us to gather sector
capacity violations in a predicate overload/2. The answer to the first question is then which sectors
are overloaded, when flight FlighID is not rescheduled. The second question is answered by assuming
that flight FlightID is not rescheduled, while solving for a new solution in the solution encoding.</p>
      <p>The next steps towards achieving the goal of our project are to create real-world-sized instances of the
European airspace and to assess the performance of our initial model and make necessary adjustments
accordingly. This is followed by the integration of the dynamic sector allocation into the model and the
development of a sophisticated XAI component. Beyond this project, we envision three main pillars of
further research: First is the development of a Human-Centered-AI based interface for XAI [56, 57],
the integration of a tactical component [39] and the dynamic prediction of sector capacity, afected by
environmental efects, by neurosymbolic AI [58].</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Declaration on Generative AI</title>
      <p>During the preparation of this work, the authors used OpenAI O3 and Grammarly in order to: Grammar
and spelling check.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Acknowledgements</title>
      <p>This research was supported by Frequentis and FWF grant 10.55776/COE12.
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