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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>R. Ezzati Amini, K. Yang, C. Antoniou, Development of a conflict risk evaluation model to
assess pedestrian safety in interaction with vehicles, Accident Analysis &amp; Prevention</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3141/2583-07</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Comparative Conflict Analysis between Autonomous and Human-Operated Vehicles with Pedestrians at Unsignalized Crosswalks</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Andrea Avignone</string-name>
          <email>andrea.avignone@polito.it</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Marco Bassani</string-name>
          <email>marco.bassani@polito.it</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Beatrice Borgogno</string-name>
          <email>beatriceborgogno@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Brunella Caroleo</string-name>
          <email>brunella.caroleo@linksfoundation.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Silvia Chiusano</string-name>
          <email>silvia.chiusano@polito.it</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Federico Princiotto</string-name>
          <email>federico.princiotto@linksfoundation.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Dept. of Control and Computer Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>24, Torino, 10129</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="IT">Italy</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Dept. of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>24, Torino, 10129</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="IT">Italy</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>LINKS Foundation</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Via Pier Carlo Boggio 61, Torino, 10138</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="IT">Italy</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2025</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>175</volume>
      <issue>2022</issue>
      <fpage>16</fpage>
      <lpage>19</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>Unsignalized crosswalks remain the most vulnerable scenario where pedestrians are exposed to the highest risks. With the imminent introduction of autonomous vehicles on public roads, safe encounters with pedestrians in these critical environments presents a significant challenge. Our study develops a rigorous methodology to quantitatively assess these dynamics in real-world mixed trafic conditions. We implemented a system that processes video data from on-street cameras to evaluate risks in vehicle-pedestrian interactions by computing key conflict measures, such as the Time-to-Collision (TTC). The analysis conducted at an unsignalized pedestrian crossing enabled a comparative evaluation between conventional and autonomous vehicles. Results highlight a higher incidence of severe conflicts in interactions with human-operated vehicles, suggesting that the cautious programming of autonomous vehicles can significantly contribute to pedestrian safety. Our findings also reveal an impact on the pedestrian decision-making process based on the type of vehicle approaching the crosswalk.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>eol&gt;conflict measures</kwd>
        <kwd>autonomous vehicle</kwd>
        <kwd>road safety</kwd>
        <kwd>pedestrian-vehicle interaction</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. Introduction</title>
      <p>
        The integration of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) into public roads represents a significant advancement in
transportation technology. Although testing has been performed primarily in controlled environments
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2</xref>
        ], the real challenge lies in their integration into mixed trafic conditions alongside
Humanoperated Vehicles (HV) and Vulnerable Road Users (VRU) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref4">3, 4, 5, 6</xref>
        ]. Pedestrian crossings, particularly
unsignalized ones, present critical interaction points where safety concerns emerge. To quantify the
severity of interactions between road users, researchers have developed Conflict Measures (CM) [ 7, 8].
These metrics distinguish between regular interactions and conflicts of varying magnitudes, from slight
to serious, with collisions representing the most severe outcome.
      </p>
      <p>Despite the prevalence of crash-based metrics, non-crash events and conflict measures provide
valuable safety insights [9]. Previous studies have employed micro-simulation techniques to study
AV-pedestrian interactions, but these approaches have limitations in modeling behavioral aspects
and environmental factors [10]. Real-environment observations of AV-pedestrian interactions remain
scarce due to high costs and legal requirements. Recent technological advances in video recording and
automated analysis have facilitated safety-related event studies [11, 12, 13, 14].</p>
      <p>This paper represents an extended abstract of a recent published work [15]. Our study investigates
interactions between pedestrians and autonomous shuttles with SAE level 4 in am urban environment
with dense mixed trafic in an Italian city, providing comparative insights with HV-pedestrian
interactions. We propose an integrated processing pipeline for automated conflict analysis from on-street
camera recordings. This pipeline includes: (i) road user detection and tracking to compute kinematic
information; (ii) data analysis to model vehicle-pedestrian interactions and detect potential conflicts; (iii)
conflict measures computation (e.g., Time-To-Collision) and pedestrian decision-making analysis. Our
methodology moves from real-world scenarios to a more consistent representation through a vehicle
box-based 2D bird’s eye view that accounts for diferent vehicle sizes.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. Methodology</title>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>2.1. Video elaboration</title>
        <p>Trafic data was collected using low-cost action cameras (Garmin VIRB, 1080p HD, 30 fps) mounted
on a 10.80 m telescopic pole near a hospital area characterized by mixed vehicle types. The cameras
were positioned discreetly outside the roadway to minimize driver awareness and potential behavioural
modifications. The collected footage was corrected for distortion via the MATLAB Camera Calibrator
App to eliminate wide-angle lens errors, which would afect the correct positioning and detected
speed of users in the scene. Object detection was performed using YOLOv5 [16] with COCO classes
[17] (manually labelling the autonomous shuttle since it is not part of the available classes), while
StrongSORT facilitated consistent object tracking across frames [18].</p>
        <p>For measuring spatial interactions between pedestrians and vehicles, we converted from pixels to a
geo-referenced X-Y coordinate system. As reported in Fig. 2, in this system, the X-axis runs parallel to
the road, while the Y-axis runs parallel to pedestrian crossings. The origin point (0,0) is located at the
bottom left corner of the zebra crossing. We tracked specific reference points of the bounding boxes:
for pedestrians, the center point between their feet; for vehicles, the center of the front license plate.
Position tracking occurred every 34 ms.</p>
        <p>To enhance the accuracy of spatial and motion-related variables, kinetic data is denoised using the
Simple Moving Average (SMA), which mitigates noise from camera oscillation and image discretization.
The SMA computes the unweighted mean over a window of  data points, given by:
  =
1</p>
        <p>∑︁
=−+1

(1)
where  is the position,  is the total number of data points, and  is the width of the window. A
sensitivity analysis led to adopting  = 30 frames (1s), ensuring a balance between noise reduction and
accuracy. Validation using AV onboard sensor data confirms the efectiveness of this approach. The
estimated speed aligns closely with the recorded values, producing 2 = 0.95, MAE = 0.92 km/h, and
RMSE = 1.4 km/h.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>2.2. Conflict Detection</title>
        <p>After acquiring the coordinates and kinematic data, including trajectory and speed at each timestamp,
we isolated the segment where the pedestrian and the AV/HV were actively engaged in an interaction.
We then moved from the original camera image (Fig. 2) to the proper 2D perspective of the scene (Section
2.2.1) to analyze TTC and pedestrian decision-making (Section 2.2.2 and Section 2.2.3, respectively).</p>
        <sec id="sec-2-2-1">
          <title>2.2.1. Vehicle and Pedestrian Modelling</title>
          <p>The camera images and standard bounding boxes obtained with the object detection system are not
adequate to simulate a 2D bird’s-eye view consistent with the theoretical formulation considered. For
vehicle representation, a 2D-box is positioned using the center of the frontal plate as the reference
point. We established a reference catalogue of standard vehicle dimensions (Table 1) to automatically
assign each detected vehicle to its corresponding box size. We applied standardized dimensions based
on the vehicle type to mitigate inaccuracies due to the camera’s perspective and measurement noise.
The pedestrian is instead approximated as a single point in the 2D bird’s-eye view, corresponding to
the bottom center of the bounding box, given the diference in scale relative to vehicles.</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-2-2">
          <title>2.2.2. Pre-event Conflict: Time-To-Collision</title>
          <p>Interactions between road users are categorized into two types: undisturbed passages, where users
maintain their course without altering speed or direction due to adequate spacing, and conflicts, which
require at least one participant to take evasive action to avoid a collision. Conflicts can be classified
as minor, where minor adjustments (such as a slight speed reduction or a shift of the trajectory) are
suficient to avoid danger, or serious, where a collision is inevitable unless significant evasive maneuvers
are made by one or more road users [19].</p>
          <p>Time-To-Collision (TTC) is the time that separates two road users from a collision in the pre-event
phase if the collision course and speed diference are maintained [ 20]. Given two general Road Users
1 at speed 1 and 2 at speed 2, they are on a collision course if there is at least a straight parallel
to the vector of speed diference ∆ =  2 −  1 that from the target user 2 intersects 1. The
trajectories of 1 and 2 generate a conflicting area: the expected place of the incident assuming that
neither road user takes any evasive action. Since speed and position change over time, the Instantaneous
Time-To-Collision (ITTC) is calculated by evaluating the TTC at each instant . The minimum ITTC value
(  ) represents the severity of the conflict, with lower values indicating a higher risk [ 21, 22, 23].
Based on literature [24, 25, 26], we classify    ≥ 3 s as no conflict, 1.5 ≤     &lt; 3 s as
slight conflicts, and    &lt; 1.5 s as serious conflicts. Although thresholds vary between studies,
we adopt 1.5 s as the benchmark for serious conflicts, following established conventions [22, 27].</p>
          <p>Building on the widely accepted definition of (I)TTC, this study employs a precise mathematical
approach that considers, on a frame-by-frame basis, the spatial dimensions and orientation of the
interacting road users, and the interaction region to determine whether the two users are on a potential
collision path. Each road user (RU ) is represented in a two-dimensional space by: (i) 2D box-based
model showing its bird’s-eye view; (ii) the RU reference point, defined by the (X, Y) coordinates of the
center of the front head; (iii) two RU extreme points, represented by the highest and lowest y-coordinate
values of the box.</p>
          <p>In this work, we define the interaction region as the area that captures the influence of the target
user’s spatial occupancy on the interaction dynamics. This region is used to assess whether the two
road users are on a potential collision course and whether the computation of the ITTC is feasible.</p>
          <p>Fig. 3 illustrates the scenario of two road users, 1 and 2, each represented by a box. When
2 is considered the target user, the interaction region is defined as the area bounded by two lines
parallel to the relative velocity vector ∆ , each passing through the extreme points of 2. Whether
1 falls within this interaction region determines whether there is a collision course between the two
road users.</p>
          <p>As illustrated in Fig. 3a, at time 0, 1 lies within the interaction region of 2 and thus they are
on a collision course. If no evasive actions are taken, a conflict is anticipated to occur in the conflicting
area after a time given by Equation 2:
   =</p>
          <p>||∆ ||
(2)
where  represents the current distance between the two road users, defined as the shortest segment
parallel to ∆ (denoted ∆ ) connecting the potential collision points 1 and 2. We refer this time
instant as the Interaction Time (IT).</p>
          <p>In Fig. 3b, at time 1, the reduction in speed of 1 (1,1 &lt; 1,0) leads to a reorientation and a
change in the magnitude of ∆ (here ∆ 1). As a result, the interaction region shifts and 1 is not
included anymore. In this scenario, there is no longer a collision course, and the ITTC approaches
(a)
(b)
infinity, indicating no actual conflict. We refer to this specific time instant as the no-Interaction Time
(no-IT).</p>
          <p>From the collected images (see Fig. 2), our pipeline moves the view to the 2D representation of Fig. 4.
We define the interaction region by two straight lines drawn at each time instant from the extreme
points of the vehicle, thus the bottom-left point and top-right point. The two lines are parallel to the
speed diference vector between the pedestrian and the vehicle ( ∆ ) and tangent to the contour of the
vehicle. Upon detecting a potential conflict, the minimum distance  between the two road users along
the relative velocity ∆ is computed, followed by the calculation of the ITTC according to Equation 2.
An example of such a conflict scenario is shown in Fig.4a, where the pedestrian lies within the lines
defined by the vehicle’s contours.</p>
          <p>This rigorous evaluation of the TTC measure instant-by-instant can produce gaps in the ITTC curve
due to evasive actions, such as the pedestrian hesitations or the vehicle changes in direction or speed.
Given a threshold of interest  ℎ (  ℎ = 7 in our study) to filter the portion of interaction in
which the actors are closer, we denote Sum of no-Interaction Times (SUM-no-IT) with Equation 3:
SUM-no-IT = ∑︁ (no-IT) ,

when ITTC &lt; Thrgap
(3)</p>
          <p>On the contrary, in Fig. 4b the road users are not in a potential collision course since the pedestrian is
outside the interaction region defined by the two lines. This is due to the change in the relative velocities,
which afects the slope of ∆ . This procedure provides a convenient mechanism to investigate the
evolution of the whole interaction depending on the changes in speed and direction, thus identifying
the most dangerous instants.</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-2-3">
          <title>2.2.3. Pre-event Conflict: Pedestrian Decision-making</title>
          <p>Pedestrian hesitation often results from evasive manoeuvrers or uncertainty in interactions with vehicles.
This study examines pedestrian behaviour when crossing in mixed trafic, focusing on decision-making
diferences between HVs and AVs. We identify two key events based on pedestrian speed profiles
[28, 29]:
• Stop Event: Occurs when the speed of the pedestrian drops below  ℎ = 0.3 m / s, indicating
hesitation (e.g. perceived risks or uncertainty about the intention of the vehicle).
• Long Stop Event: A prolonged stop exceeding  ℎ_ = 1 s, suggesting a deliberate delay
in crossing.</p>
          <p>These thresholds, derived from literature [30, 31] and exploratory analysis, efectively capture
pedestrian decision-making dynamics and manage small fluctuations in the speed estimation. Two
metrics quantify these behaviors: (i) Total Stop Time: sum of all interruptions during a crossing; (ii)
Number of Long Stops: count of prolonged stops. These measures provide insights into pedestrian
confidence and risk perception when interacting with AVs and HVs.</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. Results</title>
      <p>The study analyzed pedestrian-vehicle interactions at a non-signalized crosswalk along an autonomous
shuttle (SAE level 4) route in an Italian city near a hospital. Video data were collected over 24 hours
across eight days, focusing on one lane of a two-lane urban road to ensure data quality. A total of 168
interactions were examined, including 33 involving autonomous shuttles and 135 with human-operated
vehicles, with all videos anonymized before processing.</p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>3.1. Pre-event Analysis</title>
        <p>The findings reveal that AV-pedestrian interactions were largely non-critical since they were
predominantly within the no conflict range, with an ITTC  mean value  = 3.66 ,  = 2.278 . Even
the lowest recorded ITTC for AVs remained above the serious conflict threshold of 1.5s, indicating a
complete absence of high-risk interactions. In contrast, HV-pedestrian interactions frequently involved
actual conflicts, as their average ITTC  fell below the 3s ( = 2.885 ,  = 1.306 ). The most
critical case of HV recorded a significant low ITTC  of 0.331 s, indicating a serious safety risk.
Additionally, AVs consistently prioritized pedestrian right-of-way, yielding 100% of the time, whereas
HVs failed to yield in 20% of cases, highlighting an important contrast in vehicle behavior.
(a)
(b)</p>
        <p>To compare pedestrian interactions with AVs and HVs, we analyzed the cumulative density functions
(CDF) of ITTC and applied the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. The test did not show significant
diferences between the two distributions (  = 0.168,  = .415), which means that they share
similar characteristics. We identified the lognormal distribution as the best fit for both AV-pedestrian
( = 0.076,  = .985) and HV-pedestrian ( = 0.110,  = .087) interactions. However, Fig. 5 revealed
key distinctions: AVs consistently resulted in higher ITTC values, while HV interactions exhibited a
more pronounced lower tail. Since lower ITTC values correspond to more dangerous interactions, the
presence of critical conflicts in the HV distribution is concerning. In particular, AV interactions did not
include such high-risk events, reinforcing their safer operational behavior.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>3.2. Pedestrian Decision-making Behaviour</title>
        <p>Since TTC depends on both pedestrian and vehicle speeds, the observed time gaps between interactions
result from their combined dynamics. However, pedestrian-HV interactions exhibit longer average
durations ( = 1.55 ,  = 1.48 ) compared to pedestrian-AV interactions ( = 0.94 ,  =
0.75), with greater variability and higher maximum values. The highest recorded gaps (  = 6.53
for HV and   = 2.31  for AV) can suggest evasive actions. To better understand pedestrian
decision-making, we analyze stop patterns and speed variations during crossings (see Section 2.2.3).
Stops, especially at the start of crossings, indicate hesitation and uncertainty. Pedestrians interacting
with AVs tend to have shorter and more consistent stop durations, reflected in a narrower interquartile
range ( = 0.204 ) compared to HV interactions, which show greater variability ( =
0.99 ) and extreme outliers up to 5.7 s. Also, Long Stops (1 s) occur in 12.12% of AV interactions versus
23.53% for HVs. Only for HVs, we have observed cases with multiple long stops for the same interaction.
This suggests that HVs, with their less predictable behavior, induce more hesitation; while AVs facilitate
more confident and predictable pedestrian crossings.</p>
        <p>As an example, Fig.6 captures a pedestrian’s decision-making process during a pedestrian-HV
interaction, depicting ITTC evolution (Fig.6a) alongside speed variations (Fig. 6b). At the start of the crossing,
two prolonged stops emerge, marking moments of hesitation as the pedestrian evaluates whether to
proceed. These pauses correspond with extended no-Interaction Times, as seen in the ITTC curve, where
the pedestrian either slows significantly or comes to a full stop, thus showing signs of uncertainty. This
pattern underscores that the most critical moments of indecision occur at the beginning of crossings,
when pedestrians assess potential risks. Long stops are not only afected by the pedestrian’s own
judgment but also by the vehicle’s responsiveness. This dynamic is especially relevant at uncontrolled
crossings, where yielding behavior is uncertain and influences pedestrian confidence in proceeding.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. Conclusions</title>
      <p>The introduction of AVs in mixed trafic must be carefully evaluated to ensure safety. This study analyzed
real-world pedestrian-vehicle interactions, demonstrating that AVs exhibit a lower collision risk than
HVs with safer interactions at unsignalized crosswalks. Using the proposed pipeline to build a rigorous
top-view 2D representation of the scene, we extracted spatial-temporal trajectories and computed
conflict measures, revealing safer interactions with AVs, which consistently yielded to pedestrians with
respect to HVs. Pedestrian behavior varied depending on vehicle type: interactions with HVs involved
longer hesitation and stops, while AVs’ predictable behavior fostered smoother crossings. However,
the conservative approach of the AVs, including waiting until the crosswalk was completely clear, can
impact trafic flow. AV settings should be optimized to balance safety and eficiency, adapting speed and
acceleration based on local trafic dynamics. Our findings provide valuable insights for AV integration,
ofering data for micro-simulations and informing both transport operators and AV providers on optimal
deployment strategies.</p>
      <p>Future research could extend this study to more complex crosswalk designs, incorporating factors like
multiple lanes, median refuges, or advanced warning systems. Additionally, the proposed methodology
could be applied to a broader range of interactions involving vulnerable road users and diverse
environmental conditions, such as nighttime crossings or even diferent countries, to enhance its generalizability.
As urban mobility shifts towards eco-friendly modes like bikes and scooters, their distinct trafic
dynamics introduce new safety challenges. Investigating interactions between autonomous shuttles and
these road users could provide valuable insights into the risks and benefits of smart mobility solutions.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgments</title>
      <p>This work was partially supported by the funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
and innovation programme under grant agreement No 875530 (SHOW); and partially supported by the
SmartData@PoliTO center on Big Data and Data Science.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Declaration on Generative AI</title>
      <p>The author(s) have not employed any Generative AI tools.
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